CAPRA COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH FOR PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT
Manzul Kumar Hazarika, AIT, Thailand
With contributions from
Gabriel Bernal
Developed by
Francis Ghesquiere
Consortium ERN-AL
CAPRA Initiative
Risk analysis methodology
Hazard Physical Loss Estimation
Damage Economic Human
Vulnerability
Exposure
Applications
Application 1
Application 1
Application 1
Application 1
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CAPRA Initiative
Objective and scope
Development of tools for risk assessment and
communication in order to:
Sensitize decision makers about the damaging potential of
natural disasters;
Formulate risk management strategies at regional, national
and sub-national levels;
Develop a common methodology for quantifying disaster
i k
risk
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CAPRA Initiative
Objective and scope
The CAPRA initiative aims to become the focus of a
regional strategy, versatile and effective, for the
development of risk assessment and decision making
related to management of disaster risks.
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CAPRA Initiative
Features
Hazard modules
Probabilistic risk modeling Exposure and vulnerability modules
Risk assessment module
Variable resolution grids
Visualization tools
Visualization module
Planning tools
GIS interaction
Open source
Open architecture platform User oriented applications
User updatable
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CAPRA Initiative
Features
Available hazard maps
Oriented software Some exposure databases
Vulnerability curves library
Risk and loss analysis
Information datasets
Website Software download
Wiki
Open access trough internet
Communication strategy Regional seminars and workshops
Books and papers
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CAPRA Initiative
Why a probabilistic risk analysis?
There is uncertainty in the estimation of hazard and vulnerability
Risk must be expressed in terms of occurrence rates or return periods
Ability to compare and aggregate losses of different events – multi-hazard
Abilit t d t l f diff t t lti h d
Likely future scenarios (climate change)
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CAPRA Players
8 Comprehensive Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA)
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Selected CAPRA Results
Managua (Nicaragua) earthquake risk
Economic loss for 6.5 Mw earthquake occurring near Managua
9 AAL/Building
Results for Nicaragua
Bluefields hurricane risk
Relative economic loss. Probabilistic analysis for Wind only
10 AAL/Eco. Value (Building)
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Results for Nicaragua
Corinto hurricane risk
Relative economic loss. Probabilistic analysis for Wind and storm surge combined
11 AAL/Eco. Value (Building)
Results for Nicaragua
Corinto hurricane risk
Human expected loss. Probabilistic analysis for Wind and storm surge combined
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Results for Costa Rica
San Jose earthquake risk
Relative economic loss
13 AAL/Eco. Value (Homogeneous zone)
Results for Costa Rica
San Jose earthquake risk
Human expected loss
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Results for El Salvador
San Salvador multi-hazard risk
Annual average loss (relative). Probabilistic analysis (earthquake and hurricane)
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Results for El Salvador
San Salvador multi-hazard risk
Annual average loss (absolute). Probabilistic analysis (earthquake and hurricane)
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Results for Belize
Belmopan earthquake risk
Annual average loss (absolute)
[US$]
0 - 31
32 - 105
106 - 253
254 - 554
555 - 1,421
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Results for Belize
Belmopan hurricane (wind) risk
Annual average loss (absolute)
[US$]
0 - 222
223 - 423
424 - 794
795 - 1,506
1,507 - 5,644
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Results for Belize
Belize City earthquake risk
Annual average loss (absolute)
[US$]
7 - 603
604 - 1,453
1,454 - 2,941
2,942 - 7,500
7,501 - 24,722
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Results for Belize
Belize City hurricane (wind and storm surge) risk
Annual average loss (absolute)
[US$]
472 - 39,077
39,078 - 95,905
95,906 - 185,579
185,580 - 331,062
331,063 - 765,792
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Risk Analysis Applications
Possible Applications of CAPRA
1) Visualization of hazard and 2) Land use and territorial
risk p g
planning
3) Infrastructure design 4) C/B analysis and support of
risk reduction measures
5) Contingency and 6) Damage scenario analysis
Emergency Planning
7) Real time post-event 8) Design of financial protection
damage estimation instruments
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CAPRA Applications in Bogotá
• Colombia’s capital and main economic center
• 750,000 residential buildings
• 200 hospitals and health centers
• 3,500 schools and Universities
• Population: Over 7,000,000 (High
concentration of pop.)
• Exposed value US$40 Billion only building
constructions + infrastructure
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1) Visualization - Hazard Mapping
Seismic Landslides Floods
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2) Landuse and Territorial Planning
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Resettlement from Nueva Esperanza Barrio
Before…
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Resettlement from Nueva Esperanza Barrio
… after
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3) Infrastructure Design (Specifications)
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Colegio Distrital Florida Blanca
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4) Cost Benefit Analysis
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29 Source: GAR, 2011
Retrofitting of Critical Infrastructure in Bogota
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6) Damage Scenario Analysis
DAY NIGHT
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6) Contingency and Emergency Planning
• Location of emergency units
• Functional vulnerability (emergency routes, etc.)
• q
Health services requirements
• Housing requirements
• Food requirements
• Utilities requirements (water, energy, etc.)
• Debris and construction materials
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7) Immediate Damage Estimation
Bogotá Accelerograph Network (RAB)
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Immediate Damage Estimation
Physical damage
Human losses
Surface Response Damage Distribution
Spatial Distribution Calculation
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8) Design of Financial Protection Instruments
Insurance premium calculation
Technical premium
(annual expected loss)
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Conclusions
One risk model (CAPRA) can be used for a large number of applications
g going
Cost of modeling is g g down
- geospatial technologies
- open source models
“Models remain models”
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Upcoming Training on CAPRA
Date: 28 Nov – 02 Dec, 2011
Location: AIT, Bangkok
Participants: From South Asian countries
Fees: Free!
Travel/Accommodation: Borne by participants
37 www.ecapra.org
Thank you for your kind attention
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