Commentary – Bank of Canada – April 21, 2009
LONG TERM RATES MOVE LOWER
The Bank of Canada lowered the overnight rate on Tuesday to an unprecedented level of ¼ of
1%. More importantly, they issued a ‘conditional commitment’ to hold that rate until the end of
the second quarter of 2010.
While the commitment to hold the rate is subject to inflation accelerating at a pace not to exceed
the 2% target, (not expected to be achieved until the third quarter of 2011) the bank stated that “it
is appropriate to provide more explicit guidance than is usual regarding it’s future path.”
This statement was made specifically to “influence rates at longer maturities.” You may recall a
comment made in our March Commentary:
“Should the Fed promise to keep short term rates near zero
until conditions are better, interest rate uncertainty will
be significantly reduced and therefore promote even lower, long term rates.”
This is exactly what the Bank of Canada has done with its commitment to hold short term rates
into Q2 2010 and the result is a downward adjustment of almost 20 basis point for long term
bonds.
March 1 April 21 ADJUSTED
5 YR Bond 2.03 1.84 (0.19)
10 YR Bond 2.70 2.52 (0.18)
20 YR Bond 3.84 3.71 (0.13)
The Bank of Canada expects the recovery to be delayed until the fourth quarter of 2009,
gradually growing by 2.5% in 2010 and 4.7% in 2011.
We will wait until the dust has settled to update our interest rate forecast, but the message is very
clear…
INTEREST RATES ARE AT AN ALL TIME LOW, NOW IS THE TIME TO ACT!
STRATEGY
While rates are low, capital remains limited. CMHC insurance is an obvious solution for larger
capital requests, if you fit their underwriting guidelines. Our RAM financing structure continues
to be the best solution, maximizing CMHC loan amounts at the lowest possible rate, with “top up
funds” to 65% of appraised value…a solution to maximize loan amounts at minimum rate-
averaged interest rates.
Call us today to discuss your:
• Upcoming mortgage maturities
• Consider an early renewal option
• New development/project expansion
• Refinance/increase current debt