Portfolio Investments
Stock A $8,000
Stock B $12,000
Total $20,000
State Probability Stock A Stock B Portfolio
Bad 50.00% -0.92% -1.15% -1.06%
Average 33.33% 7.77% 13.19% 11.02%
Good 16.67% 16.90% 17.46% 17.24%
Stock A Stock B Portfolio
Expected Return 4.95% 6.73% 6.02%
Standard Deviation 6.61% 8.01% 7.37%
Prices Returns Scenarios
Date S&P Level Year Return State State
12/30/2005 1248.29 2005 3.00% Average Bad
12/31/2004 1211.92 2004 8.99% Average Average
12/31/2003 1111.92 2003 26.38% Good Good
12/31/2002 879.82 2002 -23.37% Bad
12/31/2001 1148.08 2001 -13.04% Bad State
12/29/2000 1320.28 2000 -10.14% Bad Bad
12/31/1999 1469.25 Average
Good
Scenarios
Condition
Less than -10%
Between -10% and +10%
More than +10%
Probability
50.00%
33.33%
16.67%
Prices Returns
Date Stock A Stock B Year Stock A Stock B State
12/30/2005 $36.88 $91.86 2005 23.43% 12.02% Average
12/31/2004 $29.88 $82.00 2004 -7.89% 14.35% Average
12/31/2003 $32.44 $71.71 2003 16.90% 17.46% Good
12/31/2002 $27.75 $61.05 2002 10.96% -25.71% Bad
12/31/2001 $25.01 $82.18 2001 -7.20% -9.71% Bad
12/29/2000 $26.95 $91.02 2000 -6.52% 31.97% Bad
12/31/1999 $28.83 $68.97
Returns per State
State Probability Stock A Stock B
Bad 50.00% -0.92% -1.15%
Average 33.33% 7.77% 13.19%
Good 16.67% 16.90% 17.46%