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laris nominaluri gacvliTi kursi

VIEWS: 44 PAGES: 4

									                             saqarTvelos strategiuli kvlevebis da ganviTarebis centri

                                                                                                        21.11.2008


                                      laris nominaluri gacvliTi kursi
                                       (realoba da mosalodneli Sedegebi)


agvistos TveSi ganviTarebuli movlenebis ekonomikuri Sedegebi gacilebiT ufro mZimea, vidre
amas xelisufleba varaudobda. es yvelaferi aisaxeba sxvadasxva makroekonomikur parametrebze.
optimisturi gancxadebebis miuxedavad omis Semdeg ekonomikuri krizisi gardauvali iyo.
ukanaskneli kviris ganmavlobaSi erovnuli valutis gacvliTi kursis klebam sazogadoebaSi bevri
kiTxva gaaCina. saqarTvelos strategiuli kvlevebis da ganviTarebis centris eqspertebis mizania
am procesis ekonomikur WrilSi ganxilva da dainteresebuli pirebisaTvis kompetenturi
informaciis miwodeba.
saqarTvelos savaluto bazarze 2 weliwadze metia, laris kursis stabiluri gamyareba fiqsirdeboda.
2007 wlis dasawyisSi aSS dolaris nominaluri gacvlis oficialuri kursi1 Seadgenda 1,7135 lars,
xolo 31 dekembers _ 1.5916 lars. 2008 wels laris gamyareba gagrZelda da oqtombris bolosTvis
1 aSS dolaris nominaluri gacvliTi kursi ukve 1,42 lars Seadgenda, Tumca bolo TveebSi igi
xelovnurad iyo SenarCunebuli.
noembris Tvis daswyisSi larma mkveTri kleba ganicada da dReisaTvis nominaluri gacvliTi kursi
aSS dolarTan mimarTebaSi 1,65 lars Seadgens, anu dafiqsirda kursi, romelic wlis
dasawyisisTvis arsebuli kursze 0.05 erTeuliT maRalia. oqtombris monacemebTan SedarebiT
kursis (lari dolarTan mimarTebaSi) 16 %-iani vardna dafiqsirda.
oficialuri monacemebiT bolo wlebSi laris kursis gamyareba ganpirobebuli iyo ucxouri valutis
Warbi raodenobiT SemodinebiT, rac erTi mxriv privatizebis procesis (ucxouri investiciebis) da
meore mxriv saqarTveloSi ucxoeTidan gadmoricxuli Tanxebis zrdiT iyo ganpirobebuli.
saqarTvelos kanonmdeblobis Tanxmad privatizebis ganxorcielebisas investori valdebulia
saxelmwifos Tanxa larSi gadauxados, rac larze moTxovnas sakmaod zrdida. garda amisa,
ojaxebis mier miRebuli ucxouri valuta ZiriTadad larSi xurdavdeba da esec larze moTxovnas
zrdida.



1
    nominaluri savaluto kursi aris is kursi, romliTac erTi qveynis valuta meore qveynis valutaze icvleba.
agvistos TveSi ganviTarebuli movlenebis Semdeg saxelmwifom miiRo gadawyvetileba aSS
dolaris mimarT laris nominaluri gacvliTi kursis ucvlelad SenarCunebis Sesaxeb. es xelovnuri
procesi iyo da miwodeba moTxovnas Soris Tanafardobas erovnuli banki aregulirebda. xsenebuli
gadawyvetileba ganpiroba mosaxleobaSi panikis ganviTarebis saSiSroebam. am SemTxvevaSi
mosalodneli iyo laris kursis mniSvnelovani vardna, radgan mosaxleobis umetesoba erovnuli
valutiT ucxouri valutis SeZenas cdilobda. Sesabamisad mkveTrad gaizarda moTxovna ucxour
valutaze. erovnuli banki ki, Tavisi rezervebiT, am kursis xelovnurad SenarCunebas axdenda.
ukanasknel periodSi erovnuli valutis nominaluri gacvliTi kursis mkveTri vardna omis Sedegad
gauaresebuli ekonomikuri mdgomareobiTaa ganpirobebuli.
larze moTxovnis klebis mTavari mizezebia:
      privatizebis procesis SeCereba. saprivatizaciod gamotanili obieqtebis umetesoba an
       saerTod ar iyideba an dagegmilze gacilebiT mcire fasad. problemebi Seiqmna ukve
       SeTanxmebul investiciebzec, radgan investorebis umetesoba erideba politikurad
       arastabilur qveyanaSi investiciebis ganxorcielebas. rogorc aRvniSneT, ukanasknel
       wlebSi laris nominaluri gacvliTi kursis gamyareba metwilad privatizebis procesiT
       moziduli investiciebiT iyo ganpirobebuli;
      ekonomikuri aqtivobis Semcireba. omis Semdgom ekonomika Zalian did kriziss
       ganicdis da Sesabamisad mTlian Sida produqtze es procesi negatiurad aisaxeba.
Cvens mier ukve iTqva, rom oqtombris bolomde erovnuli banki Tavisi rezervebiT laris
nominaluri gacvliTi kursis xelovnurad SenarCunebas axdenda, rac sakmao danaxarjebTan iyo
dakavSirebuli. Sedegad laris mimarT mosaxleobis ndoba didad ar Secvlila da mosaxleobis
umetesobam laris ucxour valutaSi gadaxurdavebisgan Tavi Seikava.
erovnuli bankis mier noemberSi ganxorcielebuli "laris kursis koreqtireba" sazogadoebis
umetesi nawilisaTvis moulodneli gaxlda, Tumca finansur sakiTxebSi Caxeduli eqspertebi
agvistos TveSi ganviTarebuli movlenebis Semdeg erovnuli valutis gaufasurebas varaudobdnen.
laris mkveTrma gaufasurebam mravali ekonomikuri problema Seqmna, maT Soris Yyvelaze
mniSvnelovani ki - laris mimarT ndobis katastrofuli klebaa. unda aRiniSnos, rom bolo wlebSi
laris mimarT ndoba nel-nela izrdeboda da es faqti savaWro urTierTobebze dadebiTad
aisaxeboda. 5 wlis win met-naklebad soliduri Rirebulebis nivTis fass ZiriTadad dolarSi
angariSobdnen, bolo wlebSi laris mimarT ndobis matebis Sedegad ki Rirebuli sagnebis fasi
(magaliTad aveji) ukve larebSi aisaxeboda, rac udaod win gadadgmuli nabiji gaxldaT. laris
gaufasurebam wlebis ganmavlobaSi erovnuli valutis mimarT nel-nela mopovebuli ndoba
sagrZnoblad Seamcira. Sedegad produqciis umetesobaze fasis gansazRvra isev dolarSi xdeba
(Sesabamisi ekvivalenti larSi), aseve SeimCneva sacalo maRaziebSi distributorebis mier
saqonlis ucxour valutaSi Cabarebis tendencia.
erovnuli   valutis   mkveTri   gaufasurebis    erT-erTi   mniSvnelovani   uaryofiTi   Sedegi
samomxmareblo fasebis zrdaa. marTalia xelisufleba acxadebda, rom laris gaufasureba
samomxmareblo fasebis zrdas ar gamoiwvevs, realoba aSkarad sxvagvaria. produqciaze fasebis
mateba myisierad moxda, rac nebismieri moqalaqesTvis advilad SesamCnevia. fasebis zrda
gansakuTrebiT medikamentebze aisaxa. xelisuflebis mier gakeTebuli gancxadeba inflaciis
monetarul gaangariSebas eyrdnoboda, rac xangrZlivi periodisaTvis sworia, Tumca ekonomikaSi
moklevadiani efeqtebic arsebobs da maTi ignorireba ar SeiZleba. es bolo periodSi produqciaze
fasebis matebam naTlad dagvanaxa. Garda amisa, arsebobs mosazreba, rom gazrdili socialuri
xarjebis gamo xelisufleba iZulebulia gazardos fulis masa, es ki Tavis mxriv inflaciis
gamomwvevi mizezia.
laris gacvliTi kursis gauaresebis kidev erTi negatiur Sedegi sagareo valis moculobis zrdaa.
saqarTvelos sagareo vali ucxour valutaSi aqvs aRebuli, Sesabamisad misi moculoba larebSi
gaizarda. unda aRiniSnos, rom Tavis droze laris gamyareba dadebiTad aisaxeboda sagareo valis
momsaxurebaze. gasaTvaliswinebelia is faqtic, rom 2008 wels sagareo vali ucxour valutaSic
sagrZnoblad gaizarda. saqarTvelos 2009 wlis biujetis bolo proeqtis Tanaxmad 2009 wlisaTvis
saqarTvelos sagareo valis zRvruli moculoba 4,591.4 milioni laria. 2007 wlis bolosaTvis es
monacemi 3,015.3 milion lars Seadgenda.
erovnuli valutis nominaluri gacvliTi kursis mkveTri vardna gamoiwvevs xelisuflebis mier
dagegmili socialuri programebis Seusruleblobas. xelisuflebis mier warmodgenili programebis
Tanaxmad saqarTveloSi minimaluri pensia 2009 wlisaTvis 100 dolaramde unda gazrdiliyo, rac
Tavidanve rTulad Sesasrulebel mizans warmoadgenda. cxadia, dolarTan mimarTebaSi laris
gacvliTi kursis vardna am miznis miRwevas ararealurs xdis. xelisuflebis gaTvlebiT laris kursi
unda gamyarebuliyo, amitomac Sepirebuli Tanxa dolarSi gamoisaxa. realurad ki, qveyanaSi
ganviTarebulma movlenebma laris kursis vardna gamoiwvia da Sesabamisad 100 dolaramde
minimaluri pensiis gazrda momavali 2 wlis ganmavlobaSi SeuZlebelia. amas adasturebis
mTavrobis mier parlamentSi wardgenili - 2009 wlis saxelmwifo biujetis Sesaxeb – kanonproeqti.
mis Tanaxmad asakiT pensionerTaTvis pensiis 10 lariT zrdaa gaTvaliswinebuli da isic
etapobrivad (5 lari ianvridan; 5 lari noembridan). Tu gaviTvaliswinebT bolo periodSi
samomxmareblo fasebis mkveTr zrdas da momaval wels mosalodnel inflacias SeiZleba
davaskvnaT, rom "realuri" pensia ar izrdeba.
2007 wlis monacemebiT saqarTveloSi fuladi gzavnilebis moculobam 866,2 milioni dolari
Seadgina, rac yovelwlirad mzardi tendenciiT xasiaTdeba. aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom bolo wlebSi
laris kursis gamyarebas ar mohyolia fasebis kleba, inflaciis maCvenebeli sakmaod maRali
rCeboda, Sesabamisad fulad gzavnilebze damokidebuli, arc Tu mcirericxovani, mosaxleobis
realuri Semosavali larSi Semcirda. marTalia laris kursis vardnam gazarda maTi nominaluri
Semosavali larSi, magram bolo TveSi samomxmareblo fasebis mkveTrma zrdam, es sargebeli
daakargina.
laris gacvliTi kursis vardnis erTaderT dadebiT faqtorad eqsportis xelSeyoba saxeldeba. Tumca
aqac unda gaviTvaliswinoT is faqti, rom eqsportis realuri moculobis zrda sxva bevr
sirTuleebTanaa dakavSirebuli da igi mxolod laris kursze ar aris damokidebuli.
Sabolood SegviZlia davaskvnaT, rom laris kursis vardna da misi uaryofiTi gavlena qveynis
ekonomikaze agvistos TveSi ganviTarebuli tragikuli movlenebis pirdapiri Sedegia.

								
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