The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current

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					         The Asian-Australian Monsoon
           System: Recent Evolution,
         Current Status and Prediction

                      Update prepared by
                Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
                        November 21, 2011



                            For more information, visit:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml


                                                                                   1
                  Outline
• Recent Evolution and Current Conditions
• Monsoon Prediction
• Summary
• Climatology




                                            2
            Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days




Over the last 90 days, rainfall deficit is seen
over peninsular southeastern India, northeastern
India, southern and southwestern China.
Elsewhere, 90 day rainfall is at near or above
normal levels.




                                                   3
             Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days




The overall 30-day precipitation pattern is at
below normal levels along coastal Indian states
of northern bay of Bengal, Thailand, and
northeastern Australia. However, northern parts
of Northern Territory and northwestern
Queensland of Australia received higher than
normal rainfall.


                                                  4
            Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days




This past week, parts of Northern Territory province of Australia received above
normal rainfall and along the border of Papa New Guinea with Indonesia. Elsewhere
in the region, the weekly rainfall was generally below normal.



                                                                                    5
                        Rainfall Time Series
                                  over 5x5 lat-lon boxes




Note: This unified land-only daily precipitation dataset is different from the
CMAP dataset used in the previous three spatial maps.



       The time series of precipitation over the various regions
       is relatively consistent with the spatial maps shown
       earlier.

                                                                                 6
             Atmospheric Circulation




An extensive anomalous ridge/high pressure centered off the east coast of
China just south of Japan dominated the circulation and thus less rainfall in
and over adjacent countries of the monsoon region.

                                                                                7
      NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts
Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2


                      Week-1



                                 Week-2




                                             8
                                Summary
•   Over the last 90 days, rainfall deficit is seen over peninsular southeastern
    India, northeastern India, southern and southwestern China. Elsewhere, 90 day
    rainfall is at near or above normal levels. The overall 30-day precipitation
    pattern is at below normal levels along coastal Indian states of northern bay of
    Bengal, Thailand, and northeastern Australia. However, northern parts of
    Northern Territory and northwestern Queensland of Australia received higher
    than normal rainfall.
•   This past week, parts of Northern Territory province of Australia received
    above normal rainfall and along the border of Papa New Guinea with Indonesia.
    Elsewhere in the region, the weekly rainfall was generally below normal. An
    extensive anomalous ridge/high pressure centered off the east coast of China
    just south of Japan dominated the circulation and thus less rainfall in and over
    adjacent countries of the monsoon region. The NCEP GFS model, for the
    upcoming week, is predicting above normal rainfall for southeastern India and
    for large parts of northeastern Australia where it was relatively this past week.




                                                                               9
Demise of the Asian Monsoon




                          10
Onset of the Australian Monsoon




                             11
Climatology




              12

				
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posted:11/26/2011
language:English
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