As the probabilities of success
Click on the Risk Profile Table tab below to go to the problem
As the probabilities of success
Do I get married?!
Smurf Values
Not Married (300,000)
Best Marriage Chelsea 1,500,000
Okay Marriage Chelsea 400,000
Bad Marriage Chelsea (600,000)
Divorce Chelsea (1,500,000)
Best Marriage Sandra 1,000,000
Okay Marriage Sandra 200,000
Bad Marriage Sandra (800,000)
Divorce Sandra (1,000,000)
You want to creat a risk profile table with all of the values and Probabiliti
their corresponding weights. These weights must include Married Prob
both the first and the second outcomes. Multiplying these Not Married Prob
weights can get you the final prob of outcome. Chelsea Prob
Sandra Prob
Good Chelsea Prob
Risk Profile Table Bad Chelsea Prob
Outcomes Probabilties Value Good Sandra Prob
Not Married 50% (300,000) Bad Sandra Prob
Best Marriage Chelsea 11% 1,500,000 Great Chelsea Prob
Okay Marriage Chelsea 5% 400,000 Okay Chelsea Prob
Bad Marriage Chelsea 3% (600,000) Great Sandra Prob
Divorce Chelsea 2% (1,500,000) Okay Sandra Prob
Best Marriage Sandra 7% 1,000,000 Bad Chelsea Bad Prob
Okay Marriage Sandra 10% 200,000 Bad Chelsea Divorce Prob
Bad Marriage Sandra 8% (800,000) Bad Sandra Bad Prob
Divorce Sandra 6% (1,000,000) Bad Sandra Divorce Prob
100%
EMV (54,330)
EMV Chelsea 129,750
EMV Sandra (34,080)
The (EMV) (in this case substitute smurf for money) is
calculated by multiplying the probabilies and values vectors
giving us this final outcome of -54,330 estimated smurfs.
Thus the answer to you question is no, stay away from
the women, they're trouble!
If you have to marry someone, marry Chelsea at 129,750
smurfs
Now click on the Goal Seek tab below for further answers to
this problem
Probabilities
Married Prob 50%
Not Married Prob 50%
Chelsea Prob 40%
Sandra Prob 60%
Good Chelsea Prob 75%
Bad Chelsea Prob 25%
Good Sandra Prob 55%
Bad Sandra Prob 45%
Great Chelsea Prob 70%
Okay Chelsea Prob 30%
Great Sandra Prob 40%
Okay Sandra Prob 60%
Bad Chelsea Bad Prob 65%
Bad Chelsea Divorce Prob 35%
Bad Sandra Bad Prob 56%
Bad Sandra Divorce Prob 44%
Do I get married?!
Smurf Values
Not Married (300,000)
Best Marriage Chelsea 1,500,000
Okay Marriage Chelsea 400,000
Bad Marriage Chelsea (600,000)
Divorce Chelsea (1,500,000)
Best Marriage Sandra 1,000,000
Okay Marriage Sandra 200,000
Bad Marriage Sandra (800,000)
Divorce Sandra (1,000,000)
Probabiliti
Married Prob
Risk Profile Table Not Married Prob
Outcomes Probabilties Value Chelsea Prob
Not Married 50% (300,000) Sandra Prob
Best Marriage Chelsea 14% 1,500,000 Good Chelsea Prob
Okay Marriage Chelsea 5% 400,000 Bad Chelsea Prob
Bad Marriage Chelsea 4% (600,000) Good Sandra Prob
Divorce Chelsea 2% (1,500,000) Bad Sandra Prob
Best Marriage Sandra 5% 1,000,000 Great Chelsea Prob
Okay Marriage Sandra 8% 200,000 Okay Chelsea Prob
Bad Marriage Sandra 6% (800,000) Great Sandra Prob
Divorce Sandra 5% (1,000,000) Okay Sandra Prob
100% Bad Chelsea Bad Prob
EMV (0) Bad Chelsea Divorce Prob
EMV Chelsea 177,566 Bad Sandra Bad Prob
EMV Sandra (27,566) Bad Sandra Divorce Prob
A goal seek analysis with EMV being equal to zero by
changing the Best Marriage Prob variable shows us that it
takes 103% prob of a best marriage with Chelsea to make this
work holding all other probabilities equal. Since this is
impossible, by just changing the probability of marrying her to
51%, you increase your options of being happy.
Click on the Fuzzy Analysis tab for the final answer to this
problem
Probabilities
Married Prob 50%
Not Married Prob 50%
Chelsea Prob 51%
Sandra Prob 49%
Good Chelsea Prob 75%
Bad Chelsea Prob 25%
Good Sandra Prob 55%
Bad Sandra Prob 45%
Great Chelsea Prob 75%
Okay Chelsea Prob 25%
Great Sandra Prob 40%
Okay Sandra Prob 60%
Bad Chelsea Bad Prob 65%
Bad Chelsea Divorce Prob 35%
Bad Sandra Bad Prob 56%
Bad Sandra Divorce Prob 44%
Do I get married?!
Smurf Values
Not Married (300,000)
Best Marriage Chelsea 1,500,000
Okay Marriage Chelsea 400,000
Bad Marriage Chelsea (600,000)
Divorce Chelsea (1,500,000)
Best Marriage Sandra 1,000,000
Okay Marriage Sandra 200,000
Bad Marriage Sandra (800,000)
Divorce Sandra (1,000,000)
Risk Profile Table
Outcomes Probabilties Value
Not Married 50% (300,000)
Best Marriage Chelsea 14% 1,500,000
Okay Marriage Chelsea 5% 400,000
Bad Marriage Chelsea 4% (600,000)
Divorce Chelsea 2% (1,500,000)
Best Marriage Sandra 5% 1,000,000
Okay Marriage Sandra 8% 200,000
Bad Marriage Sandra 6% (800,000)
Divorce Sandra 5% (1,000,000)
100%
EMV (0)
EMV Chelsea 177,566
EMV Sandra (27,566)
Fuzzy Analysis Chelsea Fuzzy Analysis Sandra
Great Marriage Prob E(S)V Great Marriage Prob E(S)V
177,566 (27,566)
5% 28,951 5% (64,935)
10% 39,566 10% (59,597)
15% 50,182 15% (54,258)
20% 60,797 20% (48,920)
25% 71,412 25% (43,581)
30% 82,028 30% (38,243)
35% 92,643 35% (32,904)
40% 103,258 40% (27,566)
45% 113,874 45% (22,227)
50% 124,489 50% (16,889)
55% 135,105 55% (11,551)
60% 145,720 60% (6,212)
65% 156,335 65% (874)
70% 166,951 70% 4,465
Probabilities
Married Prob 50%
Not Married Prob 50%
Chelsea Prob 51%
Sandra Prob 49%
Good Chelsea Prob 75%
Bad Chelsea Prob 25%
Good Sandra Prob 55%
Bad Sandra Prob 45%
Great Chelsea Prob 75%
Okay Chelsea Prob 25%
Great Sandra Prob 40%
Okay Sandra Prob 60%
Bad Chelsea Bad Prob 65%
Bad Chelsea Divorce Prob 35%
Bad Sandra Bad Prob 56%
Bad Sandra Divorce Prob 44%
As the probabilities of success
increase, so do the smurfs. Make
sure you only take the specific EMV's
because these choices are mutually
exclusive. Once you make the
choice, the other option ceases to
factor in. Notice that with Chelsea, all
options are worth it. With Sandra,
only 70% is it worth it.