Figure 5.2 Wholesale prices in Ethiopia fluctuate within a wide import-export parity band
325
275
225
US$/ton
175
125
75
25
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Wholesale price at Addis Ababa Import parity (Addis Ababa)
Export parity (FOB Djibouti)
US (FOB Gulf)
USD/MT No. 2,
hard red
Whole sale winter,
price at Addis Wholesale ordinary
Ababa price at Addis protein, f.o.b. US (CIF Import parity
Years (Birr/quintal) Exchange rate Ababa vessel. Djibouti) (Addis Ababa)
Jan-94 1994 87.5 5.86 149.42 126.49 151 211
Feb-94 85 5.86 145.15 123.29 148 208
Mar-94 93.5 5.86 159.66 119.73 145 205
Apr-94 111.3 5.86 190.06 114.1 139 199
May-94 122 5.86 208.33 110.04 135 195
Jun-94 128.5 5.86 219.43 113.24 138 198
Jul-94 146.7 5.86 250.51 99.09 124 184
Aug-94 164.3 5.86 280.56 95.89 121 181
Sep-94 126.3 5.86 215.67 97.22 122 182
Oct-94 101 5.86 172.47 96.03 121 181
Nov-94 101.8 5.86 173.84 95.49 120 180
Dec-94 118 5.86 201.50 102.81 128 188
Jan-95 1995 126.8 6.31 200.88 107.23 132 192
Feb-95 126.3 6.31 200.08 106.79 132 192
Mar-95 124.5 6.31 197.23 109.66 135 195
Apr-95 126 6.31 199.61 109.3 134 194
May-95 126.3 6.31 200.08 112.01 137 197
Jun-95 129.8 6.31 205.63 120.86 146 206
Jul-95 125.3 6.31 198.50 127.46 152 212
Aug-95 118.8 6.31 188.20 125.88 151 211
Sep-95 112.3 6.31 177.90 131 156 216
Oct-95 84.5 6.31 133.86 141.65 167 227
Nov-95 87.3 6.31 138.30 143.77 169 229
Dec-95 84.3 6.31 133.55 149.27 174 234
Jan-96 1996 78 6.50 120.08 157.62 183 243
Feb-96 82 6.50 126.24 164.09 189 249
Mar-96 81 6.50 124.70 172.08 197 257
Apr-96 75 6.50 115.46 190.42 215 275
May-96 71 6.50 109.30 203.95 229 289
Jun-96 78 6.50 120.08 198.96 224 284
Jul-96 73 6.50 112.38 196.72 222 282
Aug-96 77.8 6.50 119.77 184.78 210 270
Sep-96 79 6.50 121.62 144.31 169 229
Oct-96 72.3 6.50 111.30 129.6 155 215
Nov-96 64.6 6.50 99.45 117.3 142 202
Dec-96 63 6.50 96.99 117.27 142 202
Jan-97 1997 68.2 6.88 99.12 118.75 144 204
Feb-97 67.4 6.88 97.96 122.29 147 207
Mar-97 76.8 6.88 111.62 128 153 213
Apr-97 77.9 6.88 113.22 124.11 149 209
May-97 90.1 6.88 130.95 119.05 144 204
Jun-97 108.8 6.88 158.13 111.98 137 197
Jul-97 107.2 6.88 155.80 104.55 130 190
Aug-97 119.9 6.88 174.26 113.26 138 198
Sep-97 113.9 6.88 165.54 112.87 138 198
Oct-97 99.3 6.88 144.32 120.23 145 205
Nov-97 86.2 6.88 125.28 117.76 143 203
Dec-97 97.3 6.88 141.41 113.43 138 198
Jan-98 1998 97.5 7.50 129.99 113.93 139 199
Feb-98 100.3 7.50 133.72 113.36 138 198
Mar-98 97.8 7.50 130.39 113.6 139 199
Apr-98 97.8 7.50 130.39 107.48 132 192
May-98 109.5 7.50 145.99 105.45 130 190
Jun-98 113.1 7.50 150.79 105.19 130 190
Jul-98 112.5 7.50 149.99 100.29 125 185
Aug-98 123.8 7.50 165.06 87.52 113 173
Sep-98 98.8 7.50 131.73 85.85 111 171
Oct-98 100.3 7.50 133.72 95.53 121 181
Nov-98 100.3 7.50 133.72 97.76 123 183
Dec-98 85.5 7.50 113.99 95.62 121 181
Jan-99 1999 89.4 8.15 109.72 97.28 122 182
Feb-99 113 8.15 138.68 94.24 119 179
Mar-99 117 8.15 143.59 97.09 122 182
Apr-99 121.8 8.15 149.48 94.35 119 179
May-99 144.8 8.15 177.71 92.69 118 178
Jun-99 160.3 8.15 196.73 93.5 119 179
Jul-99 157.4 8.15 193.18 86.88 112 172
Aug-99 169.5 8.15 208.03 91.75 117 177
Sep-99 160.8 8.15 197.35 89.25 114 174
Oct-99 125.3 8.15 153.78 84.24 109 169
Nov-99 99.8 8.15 122.48 88.5 114 174
Dec-99 109.8 8.15 134.76 86.37 111 171
Jan-00 2000 122.5 8.33 147.09 93.14 118 178
Feb-00 125 8.33 150.10 95.05 120 180
Mar-00 131.6 8.33 158.02 95.86 121 181
Apr-00 133.8 8.33 160.66 95.73 121 181
May-00 127.3 8.33 152.86 96.46 121 181
Jun-00 129.2 8.33 155.14 84.02 109 169
Jul-00 125 8.33 150.10 74.95 100 160
Aug-00 121.4 8.33 145.77 74.53 100 160
Sep-00 111 8.33 133.29 80.05 105 165
Oct-00 99.3 8.33 119.24 84.56 110 170
Nov-00 82 8.33 98.46 89.53 115 175
Dec-00 79 8.33 94.86 96.08 121 181
Jan-01 2001 77.5 8.54 90.78 93.87 119 179
Feb-01 78 8.54 91.36 92.36 117 177
Mar-01 68.8 8.54 80.59 90.49 115 175
Apr-01 56.8 8.54 66.53 87.05 112 172
May-01 56.2 8.54 65.83 84.35 109 169
Jun-01 51.8 8.54 60.67 83.09 108 168
Jul-01 51.3 8.54 60.09 90.62 116 176
Aug-01 62.4 8.54 73.09 93.13 118 178
Sep-01 54.3 8.54 63.60 90.51 116 176
Oct-01 52.8 8.54 61.84 86.53 112 172
Nov-01 50.6 8.54 59.27 90.63 116 176
Dec-01 57.8 8.54 67.70 92.17 117 177
Jan-02 2002 54.4 8.58 63.40 92.37 117 177
Feb-02 48.5 8.58 56.52 90.79 116 176
Mar-02 51.8 8.58 60.37 89.5 115 175
Apr-02 55.3 8.58 64.45 86.25 111 171
May-02 61.8 8.58 72.02 89.86 115 175
Jun-02 96.5 8.58 112.46 93.62 119 179
Jul-02 95.5 8.58 111.29 100.32 125 185
Aug-02 105.6 8.58 123.06 109.62 135 195
Sep-02 105 8.58 122.36 113.12 138 198
Oct-02 112.6 8.58 131.22 109.42 134 194
Nov-02 110.8 8.58 129.12 108.79 134 194
Dec-02 141.8 8.58 165.25 106.67 132 192
Jan-03 2003 135.2 8.62 156.85 105.53 131 191
Feb-03 127 8.62 147.34 105.88 131 191
Mar-03 129.8 8.62 150.59 105.04 130 190
Apr-03 129.8 8.62 150.59 105.07 130 190
May-03 145 8.62 168.22 108.17 133 193
Jun-03 156 8.62 180.98 107.04 132 192
Jul-03 154.8 8.62 179.59 97.44 122 182
Aug-03 154.8 8.62 179.59 100.33 125 185
Sep-03 142.5 8.62 165.32 103.42 128 188
Oct-03 106 8.62 122.97 104.98 130 190
Nov-03 95.3 8.62 110.56 108.81 134 194
Dec-03 91 8.62 105.57 111.17 136 196
Jan-04 2004 96.3 8.65 111.25 115.88 141 201
Feb-04 108.8 8.65 125.70 123.92 149 209
Mar-04 117.4 8.65 135.69 128.05 153 213
Apr-04 116.0 8.65 134.08 134.72 160 220
May-04 117.0 8.65 135.23 128.66 154 214
Jun-04 119.8 8.65 138.41 123.05 148 208
Jul-04 129 8.65 149.10 104.58 130 190
Aug-04 134 8.65 154.88 103.96 129 189
Sep-04 134 8.65 154.88 98.33 123 183
Oct-04 130 8.65 150.26 93.32 118 178
Nov-04 126 8.65 145.63 93.99 119 179
Dec-04 128 8.65 147.95 95.8 121 181
Jan-05 2005 123 8.67 141.87 95.57 121 181
Feb-05 135 8.67 155.71 95.22 120 180
Mar-05 135 8.67 155.71 100.19 125 185
Apr-05 148 8.67 170.70 96.2 121 181
May-05 161 8.67 185.69 95.18 120 180
Jun-05 170 8.67 196.07 98.15 123 183
Jul-05 167 8.67 192.61 104.25 129 189
Aug-05 168 8.67 193.77 98.62 124 184
Sep-05 161 8.67 185.69 96.85 122 182
Oct-05 139 8.67 160.32 101.52 127 187
Nov-05 127 8.67 146.48 95.67 121 181
Dec-05 129 8.67 148.79 102.61 128 188
Jan-06 102.71 128 188
Feb-06 107.85 133 193
Mar-06 105.68 131 191
Apr-06 108.29 133 193
May-06 110.97 136 196
Jun-06 110.27 135 195
Jul-06 114.23 139 199
Sources: Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise, http://www.fao.org/es/esc/prices
Sources: Rashid, Assefa and Ayele, 2006.
Export parity
(FOB Djibouti)
91
88
85
79
75
78
64
61
62
61
60
68
72
72
75
74
77
86
92
91
96
107
109
114
123
129
137
155
169
164
162
150
109
95
82
82
84
87
93
89
84
77
70
78
78
85
83
78
79
78
79
72
70
70
65
53
51
61
63
61
62
59
62
59
58
59
52
57
54
49
54
51
58
60
61
61
61
49
40
40
45
50
55
61
59
57
55
52
49
48
56
58
56
52
56
57
57
56
55
51
55
59
65
75
78
74
74
72
71
71
70
70
73
72
62
65
68
70
74
76
81
89
93
100
94
88
70
69
63
58
59
61
61
60
65
61
60
63
69
64
62
67
61
68
68
73
71
73
76
75
79
Figure 5.3 World prices for traditional bulk exports continue to decline
(cents/kg) (cents/kg) (cents/kg) (cents/kg) (cents/kg) (cents/kg)
COFFEE COFFEE TEA AINDEX MYS/SGP
Time period Cocoa Coffee Robusta (3 auctions) (A Index)
Coffee Arabica Tea Cotton Rubber, RSS1 Singapore
1970 240 409 330 298 225 145
1971 183 336 320 288 251 113 1000
1972 200 342 308 243 246 103
900
1973 303 368 295 211 363 182
1974 343 319 285 241 311 165 800
1975 247 285 266 226 230 111
700
1976 400 615 550 232 331 151
Price, cents/kg
1977 686 935 892 354 281 147 600
1978 530 559 506 219 245 153
500
1979 460 533 509 210 236 176
1980 330 440 411 211 260 181 400
1981 264 364 284 186 234 142
1982 227 403 317 202 209 112 300
1983 284 391 367 281 249 143 200
1984 329 438 417 376 245 131
1985 313 448 367 243 183 105 100
1986 249 517 391 200 127 97 0
1987 219 276 247 182 181 108
1988 164 313 215 163 145 122
1989 129 248 172 190 174 101
1990 127 197 118 206 182 86
1991 117 184 105 164 164 81 SourceL World Bank data g
1992 104 133 89 151 121 81
1993 105 146 108 151 120 78
1994 126 299 237 135 159 102
1995 122 285 237 127 182 135
1996 131 242 162 149 159 125
1997 156 403 168 199 169 98
1998 168 299 183 205 145 72
1999 114 231 150 185 118 63
2000 93 198 94 193 134 69
2001 113 146 64 169 112 61
2002 191 146 71 162 109 82
2003 175 141 81 151 140 108
2004 145 166 74 157 128 122
2005 144 237 104 154 114 140
2006 146 232 137 172 116 194
2007p 146 231 151 160 119 164
2008p 144 225 146 154 119 158
2009p 141 219 142 153 119 152
2010p 139 214 138 152 119 146
2011p 137 209 135 151 120 141
2012p 135 204 131 150 120 136
2013p 134 200 128 149 120 131
2014p 132 195 126 148 121 126
2015p 130 190 121 147 121 121
Cocoa Coffee Arabica
Coffee Robusta Tea (3 auctions)
Cotton (A Index) Rubber, RSS1 Singapore
SourceL World Bank data group
Figure 5.4 Food consumption expenditures in Indonesia are shifting from cereals to higher value and prepared foods
Percentage of Monthly Average per Capita Expenditure by Commodity Group,
Indonesia, 1999, 2002, 2003, and 2004
Commodity Group 1999 2002 2003 2004 2005, MK
Food
- Cereals 16.78 12.47 10.36 9.44 9.80
- Tubers 0.78 0.64 0.65 0.76 0.70
- Fish 5.58 5.17 5.37 5.06 4.93
- Meat 2.29 2.86 2.90 2.85 2.57
- Eggs & Milk 2.91 3.28 3.04 3.05 3.18
- Vegetables 6.23 4.73 4.80 4.33 4.35
- Legumes 2.33 2.02 1.90 1.75 1.81
- Fruits 2.07 2.84 2.97 2.61 2.81
- Oil and Fats 3.04 2.25 2.23 2.31 2.13
- Beverage stuffs 3.12 2.71 2.52 2.48 2.68
- Spices 1.65 1.55 1.46 1.43 1.48
- Miscellaneous food items 1.29 1.37 1.24 1.23 1.39
- Prepared food 9.48 9.70 9.81 10.28 10.61
- Alcoholic beverages 0.05 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07
- Tobacco and betel 5.33 6.80 7.56 6.89
Total of Food 62.94 58.47 56.89 54.59 48.51
Non Food
- Housing and household facility 15.92 17.80 19.15 20.65
- Goods and services 6.75 7.50 8.13 8.44
- Education 2.32 2.47 2.59 2.99
- Healthy 1.67 2.10 1.87 2.05
- Clothing. footwear. and headgear 5.23 5.18 5.49 5.11
- Durable goods 2.87 4.10 3.56 4.15
- Taxes and insurance 0.85 0.80 0.77 0.83
- Parties and ceremony 1.45 1.57 1.55 1.19
Total of Non Food 37.06 41.53 43.11 45.42
Source: National Socio Economic Survey, Module Consumption, 1999-2004 (2003 and 20004
only including panel 10.000 households)
http://www.bps.go.id/sector/consumpexp/table7.shtml
Table 7 : Average per capita monthly expenditure for individual Commodities in Indonesia at 1992 Market Prices, 1981 to 1993 (Rupiahs)
Commodity 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993
Cereals 5756 5744 5889 6421 5487
Cassava 276 374 383 357 336
Fish 1837 1683 1806 2014 2067
Meats 675 794 961 1038 1180
Eggs and Milk 438 685 908 977 1152
Vegetables 1611 1698 1820 1902 1971
Nuts 632 672 813 872 887
Fruits 605 805 1084 1183 1086
Miscellaneous 2791 2919 3061 3203 3359
Prepared food 939 1838 2185 1804 3050
Alcohol 17 55 38 42 43
Total 15577 17267 18948 19813 20618
Source: Biro Pusat Statistik , SUSENAS 1981, 1984, 1987,1990, 1993.
For cereals, Table 8 shows that per capita expenditure on cereals in 1993 was 95 per cent of the 1981 level. Expressed as expenditure sha
1981 2005
Cereals and tubers 39% 22%
Beverages and other foods 22% 20%
Meat,eggs,fish, and dairy 19% 22%
Fruits and vegetables 14% 15%
Prepared foods 6% 22%
Tobacco 0% 0%
100% 100%
45%
Share in per capita food expenditure
39% 1981
40%
2005
35%
30%
25% 22% 22%
(%)
22% 22%
20% 19%
20%
14% 15%
15%
10%
6%
5%
0%
Cereals and tubers Beverages and Meat,eggs,fish, Fruits and Prepared foods
other foods and dairy vegetables
Source: Badan Pusat Satistik Indonesia, http://www.bps.go.id
prepared foods
Percent share
1999 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005, MK
Food
- Cereals 26.7% 21.3% 18.2% 17.3% 17.82% 20.20%
- Tubers 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.4% 1.28% 1.45%
- Fish 8.9% 8.8% 9.4% 9.3% 8.97% 10.16%
- Meat 3.6% 4.9% 5.1% 5.2% 4.67% 5.30%
- Eggs & Milk 4.6% 5.6% 5.3% 5.6% 5.78% 6.55%
- Vegetables 9.9% 8.1% 8.4% 7.9% 7.90% 8.96%
- Legumes 3.7% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.29% 3.73%
- Fruits 3.3% 4.9% 5.2% 4.8% 5.12% 5.80%
- Oil and Fats 4.8% 3.8% 3.9% 4.2% 3.88% 4.40%
- Beverage stuffs 5.0% 4.6% 4.4% 4.5% 4.86% 5.51%
- Spices 2.6% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.70% 3.06%
- Miscellaneous food
items 2.0% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.52% 2.86%
- Prepared food 15.1% 16.6% 17.2% 18.8% 19.30% 21.88%
- Alcoholic
beverages 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.12% 0.14%
- Tobacco and betel 8.5% 11.6% 13.3% 12.6% 11.80% 0.00%
Total of Food 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% 100.00% 100.00%
Source for 2005 data: Selected Indicators of Social Economic of Indonesia 2006
National Socio Economic Survey, Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia
Percent Shares
Commodity 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993
Cereals 36.95% 33.27% 31.08% 32.41% 26.61%
Cassava 1.77% 2.17% 2.02% 1.80% 1.63%
Fish 11.79% 9.75% 9.53% 10.17% 10.03%
Meats 4.33% 4.60% 5.07% 5.24% 5.72%
Eggs and Milk 2.81% 3.97% 4.79% 4.93% 5.59%
Vegetables 10.34% 9.83% 9.61% 9.60% 9.56%
Nuts 4.06% 3.89% 4.29% 4.40% 4.30%
Fruits 3.88% 4.66% 5.72% 5.97% 5.27%
Miscellaneous 17.92% 16.91% 16.15% 16.17% 16.29%
Prepared food 6.03% 10.64% 11.53% 9.11% 14.79%
Alcohol 0.11% 0.32% 0.20% 0.21% 0.21%
Tobacco 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Expressed as expenditure shares, Table 9 shows that cereals constituted almost 21 per cent of the total in 1981. By 1993, the cereals expenditure
93, the cereals expenditure
Table 5.5 Supermarkets’ share in food retail in selected countries
Country Share of
supermarkets GDP $000 per
in food retail capita (PPP)
2002-05 SUMMARY OUTPUT
US 75% 41.9
UK 75% 32.0 Regression Statistics
France 75% 30.1 Multiple R 0.699539
Brazil 75% 7.7 R Square 0.489354
Argentina 60% 11.1 0.465038
Adjusted R Square
Mexico 56% 10.2 0
Standard Error .16484
Czech Republic 55% 19.4 Observations 23
South Africa 55% 10.6
Costa Rica 50% 8.5 ANOVA
Chile 50% 12.6 df SS MS
South Korea 50% 19.2 Regression 1 0.546824 0.546824
Philippines 50% 4.9 Residual 21 0.570616 0.027172
Thailand 50% 6.9 Total 22 1.11744
Colombia 47% 7.3
Ecuador 40% 3.7 Standard Error t Stat
Coefficients
Guatemala 36% 4.1 Intercept 0.270766 0.050777 5.332423
Indonesia 30% 3.4 0.014909 0.003324 4.486023
GDP 000/cap $
Bulgaria 25% 8.1
Kenya 20% 1.1
Nicaragua 20% 3.7
China 13% 6.6 RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Bangladesh 1% 1.9
India 0.40% Predicted Observation
3.5 Residuals
Share of supermarkets in food retail 2002-05
1 0.894781 -0.14478
2 0.747939 0.002061
Source: Farina 2002, Gutman 2002, Thailand Development Research Institute 2002, Reardon and Berdegue 2002, Alarcon 20
Ag GDP/cap and % urban population from WDI 3 0.719835 0.030165
4 0.385524 0.364476
5 0.436484 0.163516
6 0.422976 0.137024
7 0.560723 -0.01072
90%
8 0.429312 0.120688
80% 9 0.397749 0.102251
Brazil UK10 0.459146 US 0.040854
France
Share of supermarkets in retail food
70% 11 0.556832 -0.05683
Argentina 12 0.34412 0.15588
60% Mexico 13 0.373775 0.126225
Philippines Thailand S. Africa Czech 14 0.37959 0.09041
50% Costa Rica
Chile Rep. of Korea 15 0.326557 0.073443
Colombia 16 0.332521 0.027479
40% Ecuadpr 17 0.321413 -0.02141
Guatemala
18 0.391204 -0.1412
30% Indonesia 19 0.287748 -0.08775
Kenya Bulgaria 20 0.325633 -0.12563
20% 21 0.368751 -0.23875
Nicaragua
Share of supermar
Nicaragua
China 22 0.298647 -0.28865
10%
Bangladesh 23 0.32274 -0.31874
India
0%
0 10 20 30 40 50
GDP, $000 per capita (PPP)
F Significance F
20.12441 0.000203
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95% Upper 95.0%
Lower 95.0%
2.75E-05 0.165169 0.376364 0.165169 0.376364
0.000203 0.007998 0.021821 0.007998 0.021821
Figure Box 5.6
Household participation in French bean export production in Senegal
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Contract farmers 0.0593509 0.0598036 0.0951802 0.1053376 0.1269902 0.1109877
% 5.93509 5.98036 9.51802 10.53376 12.69902 11.09877
Estate farm workers 0.0263972 0.0260194 0.0255511 0.0327839 0.0341186 0.053804
% 2.63972 2.60194 2.55511 3.27839 3.41186 5.3804
Total participants 0.0836624 0.0837672 0.1131806 0.1305981 0.1517593 0.1517124
% 8.36624 8.37672 11.31806 13.05981 15.17593 15.17124
50
Share of participating households (%)
40
30
20
10
0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Contract farmers Estate farm workers Total participants
Incidence of poverty and extreme poverty among participating householdsm 2005
estate farm contract
workers farmers
Incidence of poverty 42 13
Incidence of extreme poverty 21 5
45
Incidence of poverty
40
Incidence of extreme poverty
Share of households (%)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
estate farm workers contract farmers
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
0.131753 0.134129 0.182242 0.227457 0.21559 0.204198 0.195699 0.117118 0.098426
13.17526 13.41287 18.22418 22.74569 21.559 20.41984 19.56987 11.71176 9.84259
0.057035 0.060041 0.059599 0.068956 0.144592 0.207362 0.250001 0.312026 0.336262
5.70354 6.00405 5.95987 6.89556 14.45922 20.73622 25.00012 31.2026 33.62622
0.172338 0.174439 0.218888 0.260626 0.323972 0.357056 0.379284 0.389157 0.394882
17.23382 17.4439 21.88884 26.0626 32.39717 35.70556 37.9284 38.91571 39.48822