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									                                             Scottish private sector output down further, albeit at
The PMI® (Purchasing Managers’ Index®)
Scotland Report is produced for The Royal
Bank of Scotland by Markit Economics.
The report features original survey
data collected from a panel of over
600 companies based in Scotland and
                                             weaker rate.
operating in both manufacturing and
service sectors. The panel has been          The March PMI® Scotland Report highlighted a
carefully selected in order to accurately    further deterioration of operating conditions during          Output                                                                    60
reflect the true structure of the Scottish
economy and therefore provide an             the final month of Q1. Output, new business,                  Rising
                                                                                                                                                                                     55
accurate picture of business conditions in   employment and backlogs all posted concurrent
the region.                                  falls. That said, the rates of decline all eased from                                                                                   50
The report forms part of a series of         the previous month.
regional economic surveys published by
The Royal Bank of Scotland and Markit        Output down for twelfth straight month                                                                                                  45
Economics, which are directly comparable     Activity in the Scottish private sector economy               Falling
with the highly regarded national PMI                                                                                                                                                40
surveys produced by Markit for the           fell at the weakest pace for six months during
Chartered Institute of Purchasing and        March. Nevertheless, the latest decline was                                                                                             35
Supply.
                                             at an historically sharp rate, and the twelfth in
Register now at
                                             succession. Survey respondents widely reported                New Business
www.rbs.com/economics                        that activity levels had been reduced in line with            60
to receive your choice of monthly PMI
report summary emails. The report            lower new work.                                                                                                                      Rising
summaries will be emailed to you on the           The dire economic climate was cited by                   55
second Monday of each month.
                                             panellists as the principal factor lowering
                                                                                                           50
The Royal Bank of Scotland Group is one      new order books during March, as clients cut
of the world's leading financial services    spending. The latest drop in new business was                 45
companies providing a range of retail                                                                                                                                             Falling
and corporate banking, financial markets,
                                             the thirteenth in a row although, mirroring the
consumer finance, insurance, and wealth      trend for output, the rate of contraction eased to            40
management services.                         a six-month low.
The Group operates in Europe, the
Americas, Asia and the Middle East
                                             Workforce continued to decline                                35

serving more than 40 million customers       Employment levels continued to shrink during the
and employing more than 170,000 people.      latest survey period, and at an historically sharp                                                                                     60
For further information please contact:      pace. That said, the rate of job shedding was                 Employment
                                             the slowest since last October and the weakest                Rising
                                                                                                                                                                                    55
David Fenton
Senior Economist                             of any UK region. Anecdotal evidence from the
The Royal Bank of Scotland                   survey panel linked the latest round of job cuts                                                                                       50
Tel: 0131 626 3701                           to protracted falls in both activity and new work.
Mobile: 07770 605596
E-mail: david.fenton@rbs.co.uk               Subsequently, firms implemented redundancy                    Falling
                                                                                                                                                                                    45
                                             programmes and indicated that outgoing
                                             employees were not being replaced.
                                             Backlogs fell further
                                                                                                                                                                                    40


                                             The pipeline of existing work-in-hand fell for the            Input costs / prices charged
                                             nineteenth straight month during March. The                   80

                                             rate of decline was again considerable, albeit it             75
Markit Economics
                                             the slowest since last November. Responding                   70
Henley on Thames
Oxon RG9 1EL, UK                             companies suggested that falling workloads had                65
                                                                                                                                                   Input costs

Tel: +44 1491 461000                         freed up resources, which were subsequently                   60                                                                     Rising
Fax: +44 1491 461001                         utilised to push through backlogs. Manufacturers
                                                                                                           55
E-mail: economics@markit.com                 recorded the steeper fall in outstanding business
                                                                                                           50
                                             during March.                                                                                   Prices charged
The RBS Regional PMIs are produced
                                             Cost inflation at lowest in the survey history
                                                                                                           45
by Markit Economics, an independent                                                                        40                                                                     Falling
research company that produces highly-       Input price inflation eased for the first time in three             1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
regarded surveys of business conditions in   months during March. This resulted in the weakest
nations around the world.
                                             monthly rise in average input costs since March
The Royal Bank of Scotland and Markit
                                             2002. Survey respondents reported that falling            Index Summary
                                                                                                       	             	            Oct’08	   Nov	      Dec		      Jan’09	   Feb	      Mar
Economics acknowledge the support of         supplier list prices and wage costs had driven
CIPS in the production of this report.       the weakening in the rate of inflation. However,          Output                      40.1     38.3      36.9       38.4      36.8     41.8
                                             sterling’s poor performance against major world           New Business                38.5     35.7      35.9       36.6      36.1     39.8
                                             currencies continued to weigh on import costs.            Backlogs of Work            38.4     37.7      35.7       35.2      35.2     37.4
                                                 In response to plummeting demand, firms               Employment                  43.2     42.0      41.1       39.5      41.4     42.1
                                             were forced to lower tariffs at the fastest pace          Output Prices               54.6     48.2      48.8       48.8      49.1     45.8
                                             in the series history during March. Panellists            Input Prices                64.3     58.2      55.0       55.2      56.0     53.5
                                             reported that a marked intensification of                 An index reading above 50 signals an increase on the previous month.
                                             competitive pressures had pressed companies to            Readings below 50 signal a decrease. Exactly 50 indicates no change
        14 April 2009                        reduce charges.                                           on the previous month.
      MANUFACTURING                                                                                                                                                   PMI Scotland Report


    Manufacturing: Output
Q. Please compare your production/output this month with the situation one month ago.
	                 Higher	     Same	       Lower	      Net	          Index	        S.Adj	          50.0 = no change on previous month
	                   %	         %	           %	        %	               	          Index            70
                                                                                                                                                                                            Increasing rate of growth
2008 Oct           21.0       45.1        34.0       -13.0         43.5           43.0
                                                                                                   65
     Nov           20.4       40.9        38.7       -18.3         40.9           41.4
     Dec           16.0       43.8        40.2       -24.3         37.9           38.6             60
2009 Jan           11.6       39.2        49.2       -37.6         31.2           38.0             55
     Feb           16.3       40.7        43.0       -26.7         36.6           35.7
                                                                                                   50
     Mar           24.7       44.9        30.3        -5.6         47.2           42.5
                                                                                                   45
In contrast to the survey-record decline seen in February, Scottish
                                                                                                   40
manufacturers registered the weakest fall in production levels for five months                                      Grey line: Unadjusted
                                                                                                   35
during March. Furthermore, the rise in the index was the greatest in over                                           Black line: Seasonally adjusted

eleven years of data collection. Panel members indicated that a protracted                         30
                                                                                                                                                                                       Increasing rate of contraction
decline of new business resulted in the latest fall in output.                                     25
                                                                                                         1998   1999     2000      2001      2002       2003      2004      2005       2006      2007      2008


    Manufacturing: New Order Books
Q. Please compare the level of new orders received (UK and export) in units this month with the situation one month ago.
	                 Higher	     Same	       Lower	      Net	          Index	        S.Adj	          50.0 = no change on previous month
	                   %	         %	           %	        %	               	          Index           70
                                                                                                                                                                                           Increasing rate of growth
2008 Oct           22.2       38.9        38.9       -16.7         41.7           41.9            65
                                                                                                                                                 Grey line: Unadjusted

     Nov           17.6       33.2        49.2       -31.6         34.2           34.2                                                           Black line: Seasonally adjusted
                                                                                                  60
     Dec           17.0       35.7        47.4       -30.4         34.8           36.0
2009 Jan           13.8       28.2        58.0       -44.2         27.9           33.4            55
     Feb           15.6       35.8        48.6       -32.9         33.5           32.6            50
     Mar           27.5       35.4        37.1        -9.6         45.2           38.5
                                                                                                  45
New orders to the Scottish manufacturing sector fell for the twelfth month in
                                                                                                  40
a row during March. Nevertheless, the rate of decline eased to a five-month
                                                                                                  35
low. Anecdotal evidence from the survey panel linked the latest drop in new
order books to the weak economic climate, resulting in the postponement                           30
                                                                                                                                                                                     Increasing rate of contraction
and cancellation of clients’ purchases.                                                           25
                                                                                                         1998   1999     2000     2001       2002       2003     2004       2005       2006      2007      2008


    Manufacturing: New Export Orders
Q. Please compare the level of new export orders in units this month with the situation one month ago.
	                 Higher	     Same	       Lower	      Net	          Index	        S.Adj	          50.0 = no change on previous month
	                   %	         %	           %	        %	               	          Index           70                                                                                      Increasing rate of growth
2008 Oct           22.1       52.6        25.3        -3.2          48.4          47.3            65
                                                                                                                                                    Grey line: Unadjusted

     Nov           15.9       42.1        42.1       -26.2          36.9          37.4                                                             Black line: Seasonally adjusted
                                                                                                  60
     Dec            8.9       44.6        46.5       -37.6          31.2          32.5
2009 Jan           10.6       46.2        43.3       -32.7          33.7          35.3            55
     Feb           15.5       47.6        36.9       -21.4          39.3          38.2            50
     Mar           16.5       40.8        42.7       -26.2          36.9          35.2
                                                                                                  45
The global slump in demand – ensuing from the economic downturn – was                             40
cited by firms as the key factor lowering new business from international
                                                                                                  35
markets during March. Moreover, at 35.2, down from 38.2, the seasonally
                                                                                                  30
adjusted New Export Orders Index signalled an acceleration in the rate of                                                                                                              Increasing rate of contraction
                                                                                                  25
decline of new work received from abroad.                                                               1998    1999    2000      2001      2002       2003      2004       2005      2006      2007      2008


    Manufacturing: Backlogs of Work
Q. Please compare your uncompleted work (in units) this month with the situation one month ago.
	                 Higher	     Same	       Lower	      Net	          Index	        S.Adj	          50.0 = no change on previous month
	                   %	         %	           %	        %	               	          Index           65
                                                                                                                                                                                           Increasing rate of growth

2008 Oct           11.5       57.6        30.9       -19.4         40.3           41.0
                                                                                                  60
     Nov            9.9       55.9        34.2       -24.2         37.9           37.9                                   Grey line: Unadjusted
     Dec            7.3       48.3        44.4       -37.1         31.5           33.4            55                     Black line: Seasonally adjusted
2009 Jan            3.9       47.7        48.4       -44.5         27.7           30.8
                                                                                                  50
     Feb            8.1       46.3        45.6       -37.6         31.2           30.5
     Mar           12.2       51.3        36.5       -24.4         37.8           35.3            45
After adjusting for seasonal factors, the Backlogs of Work Index posted 35.3                      40
in March, markedly up from 30.5 February. The latest reading signalled the                        35
nineteenth successive monthly fall in backlogs of work, albeit at the weakest
                                                                                                  30
pace since November 2008. Manufacturers indicated that the ongoing slump                                                                                                              Increasing rate of contraction
in new work had accounted for the latest drop in outstanding business.                            25
                                                                                                         1998   1999    2000      2001      2002       2003      2004       2005      2006      2007      2008


    Manufacturing: Employment
Q. Please compare the number of people employed this month with the situation one month ago (treat two part-time as one full-time & ignore temporary labour).
	                 Higher	     Same	       Lower	      Net	          Index	        S.Adj	          50.0 = no change on previous month
	                   %	         %	           %	        %	               	          Index           70                                                                                       Increasing rate of growth
2008 Oct            9.2       72.4        18.4        -9.2         45.4           44.8
     Nov            7.5       67.4        25.1       -17.6         41.2           41.0            65
                                                                                                                                         Grey line: Unadjusted
     Dec            7.0       70.2        22.8       -15.8         42.1           42.6            60
2009 Jan            4.9       68.1        26.9       -22.0         39.0           40.6                                                   Black line: Seasonally adjusted

     Feb            7.5       66.1        26.4       -19.0         40.5           40.8            55
     Mar            7.3       72.1        20.7       -13.4         43.3           42.8
                                                                                                  50
Employment levels continued to contract in the Scottish manufacturing
sector during March. Panel members indicated that, in response to falling                         45
workloads, a number of firms had implemented redundancy programmes                                40
and that outgoing staff had not been replaced. However, the rate of job                                                                                                              Increasing rate of contraction
                                                                                                  35
shedding was the slowest since October 2008.                                                             1998   1999    2000      2001      2002       2003      2004       2005      2006      2007      2008




All Intellectual Property Rights owned by Markit                                                                                                                                                 14 April 2009
PMI Scotland Report                                                                                                                               MANUFACTURING

    Manufacturing: Quantity of Goods Purchased
Q. Please compare the quantity of items purchased (in units) this month with the situation one month ago.
	                 Higher	     Same	       Lower	      Net	          Index	        S.Adj	          50.0 = no change on previous month
	                   %	         %	           %	        %	               	          Index           70                                                                                       Increasing rate of growth
                                                                                                                                                         Grey line: Unadjusted
2008 Oct          14.9        49.7        35.4      -20.5          39.8          40.4             65
     Nov          12.4        44.9        42.7      -30.3          34.9          34.4                                                                   Black line: Seasonally adjusted
                                                                                                  60
     Dec          10.6        45.3        44.1      -33.5          33.2          34.4
2009 Jan           8.9        40.6        50.6      -41.7          29.2          34.8             55
     Feb          11.1        43.3        45.6      -34.5          32.7          32.7             50
     Mar          19.7        42.7        37.6      -18.0          41.0          36.7
                                                                                                  45
At 36.7, up from 32.7, the seasonally adjusted Quantity of Goods Purchased
                                                                                                  40
Index pointed to a sixteenth successive monthly drop in purchasing activity
                                                                                                  35
during March. The latest decline, was the weakest since October 2008
                                                                                                  30
but still sharp overall. Companies reported that the collapse in production                                                                                                        Increasing rate of contraction
volumes had markedly reduced their demand for inputs.                                             25
                                                                                                       1998     1999      2000      2001      2002      2003      2004     2005      2006        2007       2008


    Manufacturing: Suppliers’ Delivery Times
Q. Please compare your suppliers’ delivery times (volume-weighted) this month with the situation one month ago.
	                 Faster	     Same	      Slower	      Net	          Index	        S.Adj	          50.0 = no change on previous month
	                   %	         %	          %	         %	               	          Index           70
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Quicker deliveries
2008 Oct           8.1        83.9         8.1       +0.0          50.0          49.7
     Nov          10.9        82.6         6.5       +4.3          52.2          51.4             65
                                                                                                                                              Grey line: Unadjusted
     Dec          10.0        82.4         7.6       +2.4          51.2          50.6             60
2009 Jan           7.9        87.1         5.1       +2.8          51.4          49.4                                                         Black line: Seasonally adjusted

     Feb          10.5        81.9         7.6       +2.9          51.5          49.8             55
     Mar          12.4        83.7         3.9       +8.4          54.2          53.3
                                                                                                  50
Suppliers’ delivery times shortened for the first time in 2009 during March.
This was signalled by the seasonally adjusted Suppliers’ Delivery Times                           45
Index posting 53.3, up from 49.8 in the previous survey period. Panel
                                                                                                  40
members suggested that the plunge in input buying had freed up spare                                                                                                                                Slower deliveries
capacity at vendors.                                                                              35
                                                                                                       1998     1999      2000      2001      2002      2003      2004     2005      2006        2007      2008


    Manufacturing: Input Prices
Q. Please compare the average price of your purchases (volume-weighted) this month with the situation one month ago.
	                 Higher	     Same	       Lower	      Net	          Index	        S.Adj	          50.0 = no change on previous month                                                      Increasing rate of inflation
	                   %	         %	           %	        %	               	          Index           80
                                                                                                          Grey line: Unadjusted
2008 Oct          31.3        58.9         9.8      +21.5          60.7          62.8             75
     Nov          28.3        55.6        16.0      +12.3          56.1          57.6             70
                                                                                                          Black line: Seasonally adjusted
     Dec          17.2        65.1        17.8       -0.6          49.7          52.4
2009 Jan          27.2        56.7        16.1      +11.1          55.6          55.7             65
     Feb          23.8        61.6        14.5       +9.3          54.7          54.1             60
     Mar          20.8        67.4        11.8       +9.0          54.5          53.8
                                                                                                  55
Input price inflation eased to a three-month low during March. Panel
                                                                                                  50
members indicated that falling raw material costs and supplier list prices
                                                                                                  45
had resulted in the easing in the rate of inflation. The weakness of sterling
                                                                                                  40
against the euro and US dollar was cited by manufacturers as a key factor                                                                                                                 Increasing rate of deflation
behind overall cost rises.                                                                        35
                                                                                                       1998     1999      2000      2001      2002      2003      2004      2005     2006        2007       2008


    Manufacturing: Prices Charged
Q. Please compare the average price charged for your goods this month with the situation one month ago.
	                 Higher	     Same	       Lower	      Net	          Index	        S.Adj	          50.0 = no change on previous month                                                        Increasing rate of inflation
	                   %	         %	           %	        %	               	          Index           70
2008 Oct          24.5        66.9         8.6      +16.0          58.0          58.6                       Grey line: Unadjusted
     Nov           7.5        77.0        15.5       -8.0          46.0          47.7             65        Black line: Seasonally adjusted
     Dec           8.2        78.9        12.9       -4.7          47.7          48.7             60
2009 Jan          12.2        75.1        12.7       -0.6          49.7          49.2
     Feb          11.5        75.9        12.6       -1.1          49.4          49.5             55
     Mar          11.7        77.1        11.2       +0.6          50.3          49.2
                                                                                                  50
At 49.2, down from 49.5, the seasonally adjusted Prices Charged Index
pointed to a fifth consecutive monthly decline in factory gate prices in                          45
March. Anecdotal evidence suggested that falling demand had markedly                              40
increased competitive pressures in the manufacturing sector. Consequently,                                                                                                                Increasing rate of deflation
firms were forced to reduce tariffs.                                                              35
                                                                                                       1998     1999      2000      2001      2002      2003      2004     2005      2006        2007       2008


    Manufacturing: Stocks of Finished Goods
Q. Please compare your stocks of finished goods (in units) this month with the situation one month ago.
	                 Higher	     Same	       Lower	      Net	          Index	        S.Adj	          50.0 = no change on previous month
	                   %	         %	           %	        %	               	          Index           70                                                                                        Increasing rate of growth
2008 Oct          12.6        58.7        28.7      -16.1          42.0          43.6
                                                                                                  65
     Nov          18.9        56.6        24.5       -5.7          47.2          46.1
                                                                                                                          Grey line: Unadjusted
     Dec          16.3        55.8        27.9      -11.6          44.2          45.7             60                      Black line: Seasonally adjusted
2009 Jan           8.9        58.6        32.5      -23.6          38.2          42.1
     Feb          14.2        54.7        31.1      -16.9          41.6          40.8             55
     Mar          16.2        55.2        28.6      -12.3          43.8          43.6
                                                                                                  50
Stocks of post-production inventories fell for a fourteenth successive month
during March. This was signposted by the seasonally adjusted Stocks of                            45
Finished Goods Index posting 43.6, slightly up from 40.8 in February. Panellists                  40
attributed the latest decline in stock holdings to concerted efforts to reduce                                                                                                        Increasing rate of contraction
post-production inventories in an attempt to lower storage costs.                                 35
                                                                                                       1998     1999      2000      2001      2002      2003     2004      2005      2006        2007      2008




14 April 2009                                                                                                                      All Intellectual Property Rights owned by Markit
            SERVICES                                                                                                                                           PMI Scotland Report


    Services: Business Activity
Q. Please compare your level of business activity (gross income, chargeable hours etc.) this month with the situation one month ago.
	                 Higher	     Same	      Lower	       Net	         Index	         S.Adj	
                                                                                                                                                                                                  70
	                   %	         %	          %	         %	              	           Index
2008 Oct           10.9       44.5        44.5       -33.6         33.2           38.3
     Nov           11.2       46.1        42.7       -31.5         34.3           36.2                    All service sectors
                                                                                                                                                                                                  60
     Dec           11.2       45.6        43.2       -32.0         34.0           35.7
2009 Jan           17.7       39.9        42.3       -24.6         37.7           38.6
     Feb           17.9       44.8        37.3       -19.4         40.3           37.6                                                                                                            50
     Mar           22.4       48.5        29.1        -6.7         46.6           41.3

Firms operating in the Scottish service sector saw output fall for the                                                                                                                            40
twelfth month in succession during March. However, at 41.3, up from 37.6,
the seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index registered the weakest
                                                                                                                                                                                                  30
decline of output since last September. The poor economic climate was                             70
cited by panel members as the key factor reducing workloads during the
                                                                                                                                                                       Business services
latest survey period.                                                                                                Financial services
     All three sectors saw activity                                                               60
fall at a weaker pace than seen      By sector
                                     	             	          	       Travel,	
in February. Financial services      	         Business	 	Financial	 tourism,	                    50
firms recorded the weakest drop      	         services	 services	 &	leisure
in activity for ten months during ‘08 Oct        39.7      35.6        36.7
March. For the fifth consecutive          Nov   36.3       37.8        34.1                       40
                                                                                                                     Travel, tourism & leisure
                                          Dec   37.3       36.6        32.4
month, travel, tourism & leisure ‘09 Jan        38.6       39.9        37.2
firms saw activity contract at the        Feb   37.8       41.5        34.0
                                                                                                  30
steepest pace of the industries           Mar   41.3       43.5        38.8
                                                                                                       1998   1999      2000   2001    2002      2003   2004    2005    2006     2007      2008
monitored.

    Services: Incoming New Business
Q. Please compare the amount of new business placed at your company (whether already fulfilled or not) this month with the situation one month ago.
	                 Higher	     Same	      Lower	       Net	         Index	         S.Adj	                                                                                                          70
	                   %	         %	          %	         %	              	           Index
2008 Oct           11.5       41.4        47.1       -35.7         32.2           36.3                                   All service sectors
     Nov           14.4       41.6        44.0       -29.6         35.2           36.7                                                                                                            60
     Dec           11.7       43.3        45.0       -33.3         33.3           35.8
2009 Jan           19.7       36.8        43.6       -23.9         38.0           38.8
     Feb           19.7       43.0        37.3       -17.7         41.2           38.4                                                                                                            50
     Mar           21.9       44.5        33.6       -11.7         44.1           40.7
At 40.7 in March, the seasonally adjusted Incoming New Business Index
                                                                                                                                                                                                  40
pointed to a further marked decline in new orders in the Scottish services
economy. The economic downturn was widely reported as the principal
force lowering new business during the month. Firms also mentioned that                                                                                                                           30
                                                                                                  70
availability of credit to clients remained constricted, further restricting their
purchasing power.                                                                                                                                                      Business
                                                                                                                                   Travel, tourism & leisure           services
     Broken down by industry,                                                                     60
                                          By sector
companies operating in the
                                          	              	          	       Travel,	
business services sector recorded         	          Business	 	Financial	 tourism,	
the sharpest drop in new orders of        	          services	 services	 &	leisure                50

the monitored sectors in March, ‘08 Oct               37.3       34.6        33.8                                                                              Financial services
                                              Nov     35.7       37.1        37.4
closely followed by travel, tourism           Dec     36.9       36.4        34.0                 40
& leisure. Both sectors saw the rate ‘09 Jan          39.5       38.0        39.3
of decline moderate. In contrast,             Feb     37.1       42.9        35.2
financial     services        providers       Mar     40.1       42.0        40.3                 30
                                                                                                       1998   1999      2000    2001   2002      2003   2004    2005    2006     2007      2008
registered a mild quickening.

    Services: Business Outstanding
Q. Please compare the amount of business outstanding (i.e. work not yet completed) this month with the situation one month ago.
	                 Higher	     Same	      Lower	       Net	         Index	         S.Adj	                                                                                                          70
	                   %	         %	          %	         %	              	           Index
2008 Oct            7.7       54.6        37.7       -30.0         35.0           36.8
     Nov           10.7       51.6        37.8       -27.1         36.4           37.6                                                                                                            60
     Dec            9.3       53.7        37.0       -27.8         36.1           37.3                                                           All service sectors
2009 Jan           10.1       54.4        35.5       -25.3         37.3           38.1
     Feb           10.5       59.1        30.5       -20.0         40.0           38.2                                                                                                            50
     Mar           13.2       56.6        30.3       -17.1         41.4           38.8
There was further evidence of excess resources in the Scottish service                                                                                                                            40
sector in March, as backlogs were reduced for the fifteenth straight month.
This was signposted by the seasonally adjusted Business Outstanding Index
                                                                                                                                                                                                  30
posting 38.8, fractionally up from 38.2 in February. Panellists suggested
                                                                                                  70
that falling workloads had freed up resources, which were subsequently
utilised to lower the level of work-in-hand.
      For the second straight month,                                                              60    Travel, tourism & leisure
                                          By sector                                                                                                     Financial services
business services firms reduced
                                          	             	          	       Travel,	
backlogs of work at the fastest pace      	         Business	 	Financial	 tourism,	
                                                                                                  50
of the sectors monitored. The next        	         services	 services	 &	leisure
steepest decline was registered          ‘08 Oct     35.3       34.8        40.6
                                              Nov    36.4       35.6        39.8
in travel, tourism & leisure, where           Dec    35.9       36.6        40.1                  40
                                                                                                                                                                               Business
backlogs also fell at a considerable     ‘09 Jan     39.6       37.1        37.8                                                                                                services
pace. Financial services firms saw            Feb    35.2       42.9        36.9
outstanding business contract at a            Mar    34.9       45.5        37.0                  30
                                                                                                       1998   1999      2000   2001    2002      2003   2004    2005    2006     2007      2008
relatively weak rate.


All Intellectual Property Rights owned by Markit                                                                                                                                  14 April 2009
PMI Scotland Report                                                                                                                                     SERVICES

    Services: Employment
Q. Please compare the number of people employed this month with the situation one month ago (treat two part-time as one full-time & ignore temporary labour).
	                 Higher	     Same	      Lower	       Net	         Index	        S.Adj	
	                   %	         %	          %	         %	              	          Index                                                                                                        70
2008 Oct            5.1       69.5       25.4       -20.3          39.8          42.5
     Nov            7.2       68.9       23.9       -16.7          41.7          42.4
                                                                                                                                                                                              60
     Dec            3.5       72.9       23.6       -20.2          39.9          40.4                                                         All service sectors
2009 Jan            3.3       69.8       26.9       -23.7          38.2          39.0
     Feb            7.2       70.9       21.9       -14.7          42.6          41.7                                                                                                         50
     Mar            5.6       75.6       18.8       -13.2          43.4          41.8
At 41.8, the seasonally adjusted Employment Index rose negligibly from
41.7 in the previous month and pointed to an historically sharp rate of job                                                                                                                   40

cuts. The deterioration of the economic climate was cited by panel members
as the key factor lowering workforce numbers during March. Companies                                                                                                                          30
indicated that outgoing members of staff had not been replaced, and that                         70

redundancy programmes had been implemented.
                                                                                                                     Financial services                             Business
     The travel, tourism & leisure                                                               60                                                                 services
sector again reported the fastest      By sector
rate of job shedding and, as with      	              	          	       Travel,	
                                       	          Business	 	Financial	 tourism,	
firms in the business services         	          services	 services	 &	leisure                  50
sector, recorded an acceleration      ‘08 Oct       40.7      46.0        41.0
in the rate of job shedding since           Nov     43.2      45.0        38.9                                          Travel, tourism & leisure
February. Financial services                Dec     40.8      46.4        34.5                   40
                                      ‘09 Jan       36.6      46.9        33.7
companies saw staffing levels               Feb     40.5      47.5        37.2
contract at by far the weakest              Mar     39.8      48.1        37.0                   30
pace of the market groups.                                                                             1998   1999    2000    2001     2002     2003    2004    2005    2006    2007   2008




    Services: Average Costs/Input Prices
Q. Please compare the average price paid by your company for all purchases, wages/salaries etc. this month with the situation one month ago.
	                 Higher	     Same	      Lower	       Net	         Index	        S.Adj	
	                   %	         %	          %	         %	              	          Index                                                                                                        80

2008 Oct          33.2        61.7        5.1      +28.1           64.0          65.3
     Nov          25.4        64.8        9.8      +15.5           57.8          58.6                                                                                                         70
     Dec          19.5        70.4       10.1       +9.3           54.7          56.8                                                               All service sectors
2009 Jan          21.4        67.9       10.7      +10.7           55.3          54.9
     Feb          24.2        67.2        8.7      +15.5           57.7          57.3                                                                                                         60
     Mar          18.0        72.7        9.4       +8.6           54.3          53.4
Input prices continued to rise during March. However, at 53.4, down from
                                                                                                                                                                                              50
57.3, the rate of inflation signalled by the seasonally adjusted Input Prices
Index was the weakest since December 1998. Panellists indicated that falling
supplier list prices and staff wage cuts had softened the overall rate of inflation.                                                                                                          40
                                                                                                 90
The poor performance of sterling against major world currencies was cited by
panellists as the main reasons for further average costs rises.
                                                                                                 80
      All three market groups              By sector
                                                                                                                                                         Travel, tourism & leisure
recorded an easing in the rate of cost     	              	          	       Travel,	            70
inflation during March. Financial          	          Business	 	Financial	 tourism,	
services firms saw inflation fall from     	          services	 services	 &	leisure
                                          ‘08 Oct       62.9      59.3        72.6               60
the highest rate of the monitored              Nov      58.9      59.0        57.6
industries in February to the lowest           Dec      58.7      55.4        55.4
                                                                                                 50
in March. In contrast, travel, tourism    ‘09 Jan       54.1      53.0        57.7
                                               Feb      57.6      57.7        56.8                             Business services
& leisure registered the weakest                                                                                                                                Financial services

rise in costs during February but              Mar      53.0      52.2        54.6               40
                                                                                                       1998   1999    2000     2001    2002      2003   2004    2005     2006   2007   2008
the strongest in March.

    Services: Average Prices Charged
Q. Please compare the average prices charged by your company (e.g. prices per service or unit of time) this month with the situation one month ago.
	                 Higher	     Same	      Lower	       Net	         Index	        S.Adj	                                                                                                       70
	                   %	         %	          %	         %	              	          Index
2008 Oct          13.1        74.2       12.7        +0.4          50.2          51.9
     Nov           9.5        75.7       14.8        -5.3          47.3          48.6
     Dec           7.8        79.8       12.4        -4.7          47.7          48.8                                                                                                         60
2009 Jan          13.9        69.4       16.7        -2.9          48.6          48.5
                                                                                                                                                         All service sectors
     Feb          13.2        71.4       15.4        -2.3          48.9          48.7
     Mar           7.5        73.6       18.9       -11.3          44.3          43.6
                                                                                                                                                                                              50
Prices charged by Scottish service providers fell for the fifth month in a
row during March. Furthermore, at 43.6 down from 48.7, the seasonally
adjusted Average Prices Charged Index pointed to the fastest drop in tariffs
                                                                                                                                                                                              40
in the eleven-year history of the survey. Anecdotal evidence indicated that
                                                                                                  70
competitive pressures had risen sharply, forcing firms to reduce tariffs in
an attempt to boost demand.
     For the third consecutive
                                        By sector
month, all monitored sectors            	             	          	       Travel,	
                                                                                                  60                  Financial services
recorded a fall in charges during       	         Business	 	Financial	 tourism,	
March. Furthermore, in each             	         services	 services	 &	leisure
case, the rate of discounting          ‘08 Oct      51.7      49.9        54.6
                                            Nov     49.5      48.9        47.8                    50
accelerated. Companies operating            Dec     51.3      48.9        46.6                                       Business
in the business and financial          ‘09 Jan      49.7      45.9        49.8                                       services
services sectors registered the             Feb     49.0      48.5        49.0                                                         Travel, tourism & leisure

fastest declines in tariffs in their        Mar     41.6      45.3        44.4                    40
                                                                                                       1998   1999     2000     2001   2002      2003    2004    2005    2006   2007   2008
respective survey histories.


14 April 2009                                                                                                                All Intellectual Property Rights owned by Markit
       NEW ECONOMY                                                                                                                                                 PMI Scotland Report


    New Economy: Output/Business Activity
	                Higher	   Same	      Lower	      Net	        Index	       S.Adj	       50.0 = no change on previous month
	                  %	       %	          %	        %	             	         Index        80
                                                                                                                                                                                Increasing rate of growth
2008 Nov         18.2      47.7       34.1      -15.9         42.0         39.9
     Dec         10.3      53.8       35.9      -25.6         37.2         37.4         70

2009 Jan          8.1      45.9       45.9      -37.8         31.1         36.6         60
     Feb          8.3      47.2       44.4      -36.1         31.9         31.1
     Mar         26.8      36.6       36.6       -9.8         45.1         38.3         50

Activity in Scotland’s ‘New Economy’ (Technology, Media & Telecoms) fell                40

at the weakest pace since last November during March. This was signalled                30
                                                                                                         Grey line: Unadjusted

by the seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index posting 38.3, a marked                                Black line: Seasonally adjusted
                                                                                                                                                                             Increasing rate of contraction
rise from the survey low of 31.1 recorded in February.                                  20
                                                                                             1998     1999     2000      2001      2002        2003      2004       2005      2006      2007       2008


    New Economy: New Orders
	                Higher	   Same	      Lower	      Net	        Index	       S.Adj	       50.0 = no change on previous month
	                  %	       %	          %	        %	             	         Index        80                                         Grey line: Unadjusted                         Increasing rate of growth
2008 Nov         20.9      34.9       44.2      -23.3        38.4         38.4                                                     Black line: Seasonally adjusted
     Dec          7.7      46.2       46.2      -38.5        30.8         33.1          70
2009 Jan         13.2      26.3       60.5      -47.4        26.3         30.3
                                                                                        60
     Feb         16.7      30.6       52.8      -36.1        31.9         30.5
     Mar         24.4      31.7       43.9      -19.5        40.2         33.9          50

Scotland’s combined Technology, Media & Telecoms sector recorded the                    40
fourteenth successive monthly contraction of new business during March.
                                                                                        30
Nevertheless, at 33.9, up from 30.5, the seasonally adjusted New Orders
                                                                                                                                                                        Increasing rate of contraction
Index pointed to the weakest drop in new work in four months.                           20
                                                                                             1998     1999     2000      2001       2002       2003      2004       2005      2006       2007      2008

    New Economy: Backlogs of Work
	                Higher	   Same	      Lower	      Net	        Index	       S.Adj	
                                                                                        50.0 = no change on previous month
	                  %	       %	          %	        %	             	         Index
                                                                                        70
                                                                                                                                           Grey line: Unadjusted                 Increasing rate of growth
2008 Nov         14.3      62.9       22.9       -8.6         45.7         40.9         65
     Dec          9.7      41.9       48.4      -38.7         30.6         33.7         60
                                                                                                                                           Black line: Seasonally adjusted

2009 Jan          3.2      67.7       29.0      -25.8         37.1         38.2         55
     Feb          9.4      43.8       46.9      -37.5         31.3         33.3
                                                                                        50
     Mar          8.6      54.3       37.1      -28.6         35.7         32.8
                                                                                        45
After adjusting for seasonal factors, the Backlogs of Work Index posted                 40

32.8 in March, down from 33.3 in February. The latest reading signposted                35

the steepest drop in outstanding business in Scotland’s ‘New Economy’ in                30
                                                                                                                                                                           Increasing rate of contraction
the history of the series.                                                              25
                                                                                             1998     1999      2000     2001       2002        2003     2004       2005       2006      2007      2008

    New Economy: Input Costs
	                Higher	   Same	      Lower	      Net	        Index	       S.Adj	       50.0 = no change on previous month
	                  %	       %	          %	        %	             	         Index
                                                                                        80
                                                                                                                                                                               Increasing rate of inflation
2008 Nov         23.3      72.1        4.7       18.6         59.3         61.9         75
                                                                                                                                 Grey line: Unadjusted
     Dec         18.4      78.9        2.6       15.8         57.9         60.0         70
                                                                                                                                 Black line: Seasonally adjusted
2009 Jan         18.4      71.1       10.5        7.9         53.9         56.1         65
     Feb         29.7      62.2        8.1       21.6         60.8         60.4
                                                                                        60
     Mar         26.8      70.7        2.4       24.4         62.2         60.3
                                                                                        55
Input costs in Scotland’s ‘New Economy’ continued to rise at a markedly                 50

steeper rate than seen across Scotland as a whole during March. This was                45

highlighted by the seasonally adjusted Input Costs Index posting 60.3, only             40
                                                                                                                                                                               Increasing rate of deflation
fractionally down on 60.4 registered in the previous survey period.                     35
                                                                                             1998     1999     2000      2001       2002       2003      2004       2005      2006       2007      2008


    New Economy: Prices Charged
	                Higher	   Same	      Lower	      Net	        Index	       S.Adj	
                                                                                        50.0 = no change on previous month
	                  %	       %	          %	        %	             	         Index
                                                                                        80                                                                                     Increasing rate of inflation
2008 Nov          7.0      86.0        7.0        0.0         50.0         52.7         75
                                                                                                                       Grey line: Unadjusted
     Dec         10.0      80.0       10.0        0.0         50.0         52.3         70
2009 Jan          7.9      84.2        7.9        0.0         50.0         49.4                                        Black line: Seasonally adjusted
                                                                                        65
     Feb          8.1      81.1       10.8       -2.7         48.6         49.1
                                                                                        60
     Mar         14.6      78.0        7.3        7.3         53.7         51.1
                                                                                        55
Reflecting the marked rise in input costs, prices charged in Scotland’s combined        50

Technology, Media & Telecoms sector rose for the first time in three months             45

during March. This was signalled by the seasonally adjusted Prices Charged              40
                                                                                                                                                                               Increasing rate of deflation
Index rising from 49.1 in February to 51.1.                                             35
                                                                                             1998     1999     2000      2001       2002       2003      2004       2005      2006       2007      2008


    New Economy: Employment
	                Higher	    Same	     Lower	      Net	        Index	       S.Adj	
	                  %	        %	         %	        %	             	         Index        50.0 = no change on previous month
                                                                                        80
                                                                                                                                                                                 Increasing rate of growth
2008 Nov           2.3     79.1       18.6      -16.3         41.9         41.8         75
     Dec           2.5     77.5       20.0      -17.5         41.3         41.9         70
                                                                                                                                       Grey line: Unadjusted

2009 Jan           2.6     76.3       21.1      -18.4         40.8         41.7                                                        Black line: Seasonally adjusted
                                                                                        65
     Feb           2.7     73.0       24.3      -21.6         39.2         38.5
     Mar           4.9     82.9       12.2       -7.3         46.3         44.6         60
                                                                                        55
Employment levels in Scotland’s ‘New Economy’ fell at a considerable pace               50

during March. However, the rate of job shedding eased to a five-month low,              45

as signalled by the seasonally adjusted Employment Index posting 44.6 in                40
                                                                                                                                                                             Increasing rate of contraction
March, up from 38.5 in February.                                                        35
                                                                                             1998     1999     2000      2001       2002       2003      2004       2005      2006       2007      2008



All Intellectual Property Rights owned by Markit                                                                                                                                         14 April 2009
PMI Scotland Report                                                                                           INTERNATIONAL

International Manufacturing          (PMIs)                                  International Services        (PMI Business Activity Indexes)

Eurozone                                                                     Eurozone
 70                                                                           70

 65                                                                           65
 60
                                                                              60
 55
                                                                              55
 50

 45                                                                           50

 40                                                                           45

 35                                                                           40



Eurozone - main nations                                                      Eurozone - main nations
                                                                  70                                                                          70
                                                                                                France
                    France                                        65                                                                          65
                                                     Germany
                                                                  60
                                                                                                                                              60
                                                                  55
                                                                                                                                              55
                                                                  50
                                                                                                                                              50
                                            Italy                 45
                                                                                                                             Italy            45
                                                                  40
                                                                  35
                                                                                                              Germany                         40

                                                                  30                                                                          35

United Kingdom                                                               United Kingdom
  70                                                                           70

  65                                                                           65
  60
                                                                               60
  55
                                                                               55
  50

  45                                                                           50

  40                                                                           45

  35                                                                           40



 United States                                                               United States
                                                                  70                                                                          70
                                                                  65                                                                          65
                                                                  60                                                                          60
                                                                  55                                                                          55
                                                                  50                                                                          50
                                                                  45                                                                          45
                                                                  40                                                                          40
                                                                  35                                                                          35
                                                                  30                                                                          30
Russia                                                                       Russia
 70                                                                           70

 65                                                                           65

 60                                                                           60
                                                                              55
 55
                                                                              50
 50
                                                                              45
 45
                                                                              40
 40
                                                                              35
 35
                                                                              30
       1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008                       1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Manufacturing operating conditions across the US, Eurozone, UK               Service sector activity across the US, Eurozone, UK and Russian all
and Russia continued to worsen during March. That said, the rates of         contracted in March. As with manufacturing, in each case, the rates
deterioration all eased.                                                     of decline eased from February.
The pace of decline in US manufacturing production steadied in               Activity in the US non-manufacturing sector fell for a sixth month in
March. This reflected a noticeable easing in the rate of reduction of        succession during March. Although the rate of decline was markedly
incoming new orders.                                                         weaker than seen in February.
     PMI data suggested that the rate of deterioration of the                      The rate of contraction in business activity in the Eurozone
Eurozone’s manufacturing economy eased from February’s survey-               eased slightly from February’s record pace. Nevertheless, it was
low during March. Nevertheless, job losses gathered pace.                    still the second-steepest in the survey’s near eleven-year history.
     Conditions in the UK manufacturing sector remained weak                       March data indicated a further easing in the rate of contraction
overall in March. Output, new orders and employment all dropped              of the UK service sector. Both business activity and incoming new
at historically marked rates and disinflationary pressures continued         work declined at their slowest rates in six months.
to build. However, the seasonally adjusted PMI rose to a five-month                Latest PMI data from Russia signalled a further marked overall
high.                                                                        contraction of the Russian service sector in March. That said,
     The Russian PMI signalled an eighth successive monthly                  activity decreased at the slowest rate since last October and firms
deterioration of operating conditions during March. This represented a       were optimistic of growth over the next twelve months.
longer sequence than that registered during the 1998 financial crisis.


Sources: Markit Economics, Institute for Supply Management.                  Sources: Markit Economics, Institute for Supply Management


14 April 2009                                                                                     All Intellectual Property Rights owned by Markit
     REGIONAL DATA                                                                                                                                           PMI Scotland Report



 Regional Comparisons: Output
                                                                                                                                        Share of UK            PMI Output Index
The graph below shows the regional PMI Output Indexes for the UK. An average of the latest
                                                                                                                                          GVA 2006         Last 12  Latest 3    Latest
three months is used (see also the table to the right). Steep falls in activity were registered
                                                                                                                                     (National Statistics) months    months     month
across all twelve UK regions in the first quarter of 2009. Northern Ireland was again the worst
                                                                                                                       London             (17.4%)            46.9      44.3      43.7
performing region, followed closely by the West Midlands. Meanwhile, London and the North
                                                                                                                       South East         (15.7%)            45.3      42.6      44.7
East posted the weakest declines.
50 = no change on previous month (3-month ave.)
                                                                                                                       North West          (9.9%)            45.7      40.4      45.1
52                                                                                                                     Eastern England     (9.7%)            42.7      41.9      45.8
50                                                                                                                     Scotland            (8.1%)            41.6      39.0      41.8
48
                                                                                                                       West Midlands       (7.9%)            40.5      34.9      36.6
46
44                                                                                                                     South West          (7.9%)            45.5      41.5      40.5
42                                                                                                                     Yorks & H’Side      (7.3%)            44.3      40.9      43.4
40                                                                                                                     East Midlands       (6.6%)            40.5      38.8      43.9
38
                                                                                                                       Wales               (3.8%)            42.0      37.5      42.3
36
34                                                                                                                     North East          (3.4%)            43.7      44.0      47.0
32                                                                                                                     N.Ireland           (2.3%)            37.4      34.0      34.7
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                                                                                                                       UK	               (100.0%)	           44.2	     41.6	     44.1
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 Regional Comparisons: Employment
The graph below shows the regional PMI Employment Indexes for the UK. An average of the lat-                                          Contribution to UK      PMI Employment Index
                                                                                                                                      Employment 2006        Last 12 Latest 3  Latest
est three months is used (see also the table to the right). All twelve UK regions reported a drop in
                                                                                                                                     (National Statistics)   months  months    month
staffing levels over the three months to March, with the West Midlands posting the sharpest rate of
                                                                                                                       South East         (14.6%)            45.5      40.6      39.3
job shedding. Scotland and the South East registered the slowest reductions in workforce numbers
                                                                                                                       London             (12.3%)            44.6      39.5      40.0
on average in the first quarter.
50 = no change on previous month (3-month ave.)
                                                                                                                       North West         (10.9%)            44.2      37.6      38.5
52                                                                                                                     Eastern England     (9.6%)            43.5      38.2      37.5
50                                                                                                                     Scotland            (8.7%)            44.6      41.0      42.1
48                                                                                                                     South West          (8.6%)            43.8      39.0      38.3
46
                                                                                                                       West Midlands       (8.6%)            41.3      34.9      35.9
44
                                                                                                                       Yorks & H’Side      (8.2%)            41.8      36.3      37.1
42
40
                                                                                                                       East Midlands       (7.3%)            41.4      36.9      36.9
38                                                                                                                     Wales               (4.6%)            41.0      38.5      37.2
36                                                                                                                     North East          (3.9%)            42.9      39.7      40.9
34                                                                                                                     N.Ireland           (2.7%)            41.0      36.9      37.1
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                                                                                                                       UK	               (100.0%)	           43.4	     38.2	     37.7
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 PMI Survey Methodology
 PMI surveys                                                                                         Index numbers
 Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (or PMIs) are monthly surveys of carefully                             Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an
 selected companies which provide an advance indication of what is really                            improvement, no change or decline. These indices vary between 0 and 100 with
 happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as output,                       readings of exactly 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings
 new orders, employment and prices across both manufacturing and service                             above 50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a
 sectors. The PMI surveys are based on fact, not opinion, and are the first                          decline or deterioration.
 indicators of economic conditions each month. The data are collected using                                Reasons given by survey respondents for any changes are analysed to
 identical methods in all countries and regions so that accurate comparisons                         provide insight into the causes of movements in the indices and are also used
 may be made.                                                                                        to adjust for expected seasonal variations.
       Questionnaires are completed in the latter half of each month and are                               The indexes are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration expected
 collected and processed by economists at Markit Economics. Respondents                              variations for the time of year, such as summer holiday shutdowns and national
 are asked to state whether business conditions for a number of variables have                       holidays such as Christmas.
 improved, deteriorated or stayed the same compared with the previous month.

 The Royal Bank of Scotland and Markit Economics
 The RBS group is one of the world’s leading financial services companies                            Markit Economics is a specialist compiler of business surveys and economic
 providing a range of retail and corporate banking, financial markets, consumer                      indices, including the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) series, which is now
 finance, insurance, and wealth management services. RBS group operates in                           available for 26 countries and key regions including the Eurozone and BRIC.
 over 50 countries across Europe, the Americas, Asia and the Middle East serving                     The PMIs have become the most closely watched business surveys in the world,
 more than 40 million customers and employing more than 170,000 people. The                          favoured by central banks, financial markets and business decision makers for
 Group’s brands include RBS, NatWest, Ulster Bank, Coutts, Citizens and many                         their ability to provide up-to-date, accurate and often unique monthly indicators
 other “household name” financial services companies.                                                of economic trends.


 DISCLAIMER
The PMI Scotland Report is issued exclusively for the general information of clients, contacts and staff of The Royal Bank of Scotland plc. The contents are not a substitute
for specific advice and should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, whilst every care has been taken in the preparation of this publication, no representation or warranty is
made or given in respect of its contents and no responsibility is accepted for the consequences of any reliance placed on it by any person.
 WARNING
The intellectual property rights to the RBS Regional PMIs provided herein is owned by Markit Group Limited. Any unauthorised use, including but not limited to copying,
distributing, transmitting or otherwise of any data appearing is not permitted without Markit’s prior consent. Markit shall not have any liability, duty or obligation for or relating
to the content or information (“data”) contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in the data, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall
Markit be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the data. Markit, PMI and Purchasing Managers' Index are all trademarks owned
by The Markit Group.



                                                                                                                                                                         14 April 2009

								
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