# calculation

Document Sample

```					ISO-NE and State RSP08 Long-run reference summer peak forecasts based on long-run energy forecast and a declining load factor.
Peak values will not match published values due to precision and rounding.

Load Factor = Energy / ( 8.76 * Peak )

The Change to the Load Factor shows the impact over time of carrying forward the change in the short-run forecast and the load factor decrement.

Long-run Peak = [ Energy / (Load Factor + Change) / 8.76 ]

Short-run energy and reference peak forecasts
2007    133630                           27460                       0.555520
2008    135000                           27970                       0.550982
2009    136540                           28480                       0.547288
-0.004116 Average change short-run Load Factor
0.000457 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)

Long-run reference peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor
Peak with
Constant
Factor                   Factor
2010     137885                          28954.1                 0.543629              -0.003659                     28761
2011     139195                          29402.3                 0.540428              -0.003201                     29034
2012     140425                          29813.5                 0.537684              -0.002744                     29290
2013     141550                          30180.7                 0.535398              -0.002287                     29525
2014     142565                          30501.3                 0.533569              -0.001829                     29737
2015     143500                          30780.5                 0.532197              -0.001372                     29932
2016     144395                          31025.8                 0.531282              -0.000915                     30118
2017     145275                          31241.8                 0.530825              -0.000457                     30302
0.000000
1)          Run short-run energy and peak models get change in natural load factor.
Calculate the decrement by dividing load factor change by years in forecast, so that no change in year after last.

4)          Calculate peaks with long-run energy forecast and load factor.

03d01f4c-04eb-4c7a-b25a-68141e590c5d.xls                                                                                                     calculation
2007     33770                         7335       0.525565
2008     34050                         7455       0.521393
2009     34410                         7580       0.518217
-0.003674 Average change short-run Load Factor
0.000408 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)
Peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor                        Decrement
2010    34760                         7706       0.514950           -0.003266
2011    35120                         7829       0.512093           -0.002858
2012    35450                         7940       0.509643           -0.002450
2013    35755                         8041       0.507602           -0.002041
2014    36030                         8129       0.505969           -0.001633
2015    36285                         8206       0.504744           -0.001225
2016    36525                         8274       0.503927           -0.000817
2017    36755                         8333       0.503519           -0.000408

2007     11905                         2075       0.654948
2008     11985                         2105       0.649953
2009     12145                         2145       0.646347
-0.004301 Average change short-run Load Factor
0.000478 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)
Peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor                        Decrement
2010    12265                         2179       0.642525           -0.003823
2011    12370                         2209       0.639180           -0.003345
2012    12495                         2242       0.636313           -0.002867
2013    12605                         2270       0.633924           -0.002389
2014    12700                         2294       0.632012           -0.001911
2015    12795                         2316       0.630579           -0.001434
2016    12880                         2335       0.629623           -0.000956
2017    12965                         2352       0.629145           -0.000478

03d01f4c-04eb-4c7a-b25a-68141e590c5d.xls                                                                                   calculation
2007     61230                        12680       0.551240
2008     61815                        12910       0.546592
2009     62450                        13135       0.542748
-0.004246 Average change short-run Load Factor
0.000472 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)
Peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor                        Decrement
2010    62995                        13342       0.538974           -0.003774
2011    63510                        13534       0.535671           -0.003303
2012    63965                        13704       0.532840           -0.002831
2013    64360                        13850       0.530482           -0.002359
2014    64710                        13975       0.528594           -0.001887
2015    65020                        14079       0.527179           -0.001415
2016    65315                        14169       0.526235           -0.000944
2017    65605                        14244       0.525764           -0.000472

2007     11870                         2465       0.549705
2008     12060                         2530       0.544155
2009     12285                         2595       0.540423
-0.004641 Average change short-run Load Factor
0.000516 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)
Peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor                        Decrement
2010    12495                         2660       0.536297           -0.004125
2011    12705                         2723       0.532688           -0.003610
2012    12915                         2784       0.529594           -0.003094
2013    13120                         2842       0.527015           -0.002578
2014    13315                         2895       0.524952           -0.002063
2015    13500                         2944       0.523405           -0.001547
2016    13685                         2991       0.522374           -0.001031
2017    13865                         3033       0.521858           -0.000516

03d01f4c-04eb-4c7a-b25a-68141e590c5d.xls                                                                                   calculation
2007     8545                         1855       0.525853
2008     8600                         1890       0.519437
2009     8675                         1920       0.515780
-0.005037 Average change short-run Load Factor
0.000560 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)
Peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor                        Decrement
2010     8740                         1951       0.511303           -0.004477
2011     8805                         1981       0.507385           -0.003917
2012     8865                         2008       0.504028           -0.003358
2013     8925                         2033       0.501230           -0.002798
2014     8985                         2056       0.498991           -0.002238
2015     9035                         2074       0.497312           -0.001679
2016     9090                         2091       0.496193           -0.001119
2017     9145                         2106       0.495633           -0.000560

2007      6400                         1060       0.689239
2008      6495                         1085       0.683353
2009      6575                         1105       0.679249
-0.004995 Average change short-run Load Factor
0.000555 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)
Peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor                        Decrement
2010     6635                         1122       0.674810           -0.004440
2011     6685                         1137       0.670925           -0.003885
2012     6735                         1152       0.667595           -0.003330
2013     6785                         1165       0.664820           -0.002775
2014     6825                         1176       0.662600           -0.002220
2015     6865                         1186       0.660935           -0.001665
2016     6900                         1194       0.659825           -0.001110
2017     6940                         1202       0.659270           -0.000555

03d01f4c-04eb-4c7a-b25a-68141e590c5d.xls                                                                                   calculation

```
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
 views: 32 posted: 11/25/2011 language: English pages: 4