ISO-NE and State RSP08 Long-run reference summer peak forecasts based on long-run energy forecast and a declining load factor.
Peak values will not match published values due to precision and rounding.
Load Factor = Energy / ( 8.76 * Peak )
The Change to the Load Factor shows the impact over time of carrying forward the change in the short-run forecast and the load factor decrement.
Long-run Peak = [ Energy / (Load Factor + Change) / 8.76 ]
Energy Peak Load Factor
Short-run energy and reference peak forecasts
2007 133630 27460 0.555520
2008 135000 27970 0.550982
2009 136540 28480 0.547288
-0.004116 Average change short-run Load Factor
0.000457 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)
Long-run reference peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor
Peak with
Constant
Change to the Load Load
Factor Factor
2010 137885 28954.1 0.543629 -0.003659 28761
2011 139195 29402.3 0.540428 -0.003201 29034
2012 140425 29813.5 0.537684 -0.002744 29290
2013 141550 30180.7 0.535398 -0.002287 29525
2014 142565 30501.3 0.533569 -0.001829 29737
2015 143500 30780.5 0.532197 -0.001372 29932
2016 144395 31025.8 0.531282 -0.000915 30118
2017 145275 31241.8 0.530825 -0.000457 30302
0.000000
1) Run short-run energy and peak models get change in natural load factor.
Calculate the decrement by dividing load factor change by years in forecast, so that no change in year after last.
2) Calculate changes to long-run load factor by successively adding decrement.
3) Calculate long-run load factor by successively adding changes.
4) Calculate peaks with long-run energy forecast and load factor.
03d01f4c-04eb-4c7a-b25a-68141e590c5d.xls calculation
CT Energy Peak Load Factor
2007 33770 7335 0.525565
2008 34050 7455 0.521393
2009 34410 7580 0.518217
-0.003674 Average change short-run Load Factor
0.000408 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)
Peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor Decrement
2010 34760 7706 0.514950 -0.003266
2011 35120 7829 0.512093 -0.002858
2012 35450 7940 0.509643 -0.002450
2013 35755 8041 0.507602 -0.002041
2014 36030 8129 0.505969 -0.001633
2015 36285 8206 0.504744 -0.001225
2016 36525 8274 0.503927 -0.000817
2017 36755 8333 0.503519 -0.000408
ME Energy Peak Load Factor
2007 11905 2075 0.654948
2008 11985 2105 0.649953
2009 12145 2145 0.646347
-0.004301 Average change short-run Load Factor
0.000478 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)
Peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor Decrement
2010 12265 2179 0.642525 -0.003823
2011 12370 2209 0.639180 -0.003345
2012 12495 2242 0.636313 -0.002867
2013 12605 2270 0.633924 -0.002389
2014 12700 2294 0.632012 -0.001911
2015 12795 2316 0.630579 -0.001434
2016 12880 2335 0.629623 -0.000956
2017 12965 2352 0.629145 -0.000478
03d01f4c-04eb-4c7a-b25a-68141e590c5d.xls calculation
MA Energy Peak Load Factor
2007 61230 12680 0.551240
2008 61815 12910 0.546592
2009 62450 13135 0.542748
-0.004246 Average change short-run Load Factor
0.000472 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)
Peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor Decrement
2010 62995 13342 0.538974 -0.003774
2011 63510 13534 0.535671 -0.003303
2012 63965 13704 0.532840 -0.002831
2013 64360 13850 0.530482 -0.002359
2014 64710 13975 0.528594 -0.001887
2015 65020 14079 0.527179 -0.001415
2016 65315 14169 0.526235 -0.000944
2017 65605 14244 0.525764 -0.000472
NH Energy Peak Load Factor
2007 11870 2465 0.549705
2008 12060 2530 0.544155
2009 12285 2595 0.540423
-0.004641 Average change short-run Load Factor
0.000516 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)
Peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor Decrement
2010 12495 2660 0.536297 -0.004125
2011 12705 2723 0.532688 -0.003610
2012 12915 2784 0.529594 -0.003094
2013 13120 2842 0.527015 -0.002578
2014 13315 2895 0.524952 -0.002063
2015 13500 2944 0.523405 -0.001547
2016 13685 2991 0.522374 -0.001031
2017 13865 3033 0.521858 -0.000516
03d01f4c-04eb-4c7a-b25a-68141e590c5d.xls calculation
RI Energy Peak Load Factor
2007 8545 1855 0.525853
2008 8600 1890 0.519437
2009 8675 1920 0.515780
-0.005037 Average change short-run Load Factor
0.000560 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)
Peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor Decrement
2010 8740 1951 0.511303 -0.004477
2011 8805 1981 0.507385 -0.003917
2012 8865 2008 0.504028 -0.003358
2013 8925 2033 0.501230 -0.002798
2014 8985 2056 0.498991 -0.002238
2015 9035 2074 0.497312 -0.001679
2016 9090 2091 0.496193 -0.001119
2017 9145 2106 0.495633 -0.000560
VT Energy Peak Load Factor
2007 6400 1060 0.689239
2008 6495 1085 0.683353
2009 6575 1105 0.679249
-0.004995 Average change short-run Load Factor
0.000555 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)
Peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor Decrement
2010 6635 1122 0.674810 -0.004440
2011 6685 1137 0.670925 -0.003885
2012 6735 1152 0.667595 -0.003330
2013 6785 1165 0.664820 -0.002775
2014 6825 1176 0.662600 -0.002220
2015 6865 1186 0.660935 -0.001665
2016 6900 1194 0.659825 -0.001110
2017 6940 1202 0.659270 -0.000555
03d01f4c-04eb-4c7a-b25a-68141e590c5d.xls calculation