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					ISO-NE and State RSP08 Long-run reference summer peak forecasts based on long-run energy forecast and a declining load factor.
Peak values will not match published values due to precision and rounding.

Load Factor = Energy / ( 8.76 * Peak )

The Change to the Load Factor shows the impact over time of carrying forward the change in the short-run forecast and the load factor decrement.

Long-run Peak = [ Energy / (Load Factor + Change) / 8.76 ]

               Energy                             Peak              Load Factor

Short-run energy and reference peak forecasts
  2007    133630                           27460                       0.555520
  2008    135000                           27970                       0.550982
  2009    136540                           28480                       0.547288
                                                                      -0.004116 Average change short-run Load Factor
                                                                       0.000457 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)

Long-run reference peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor
                                                                                                                       Peak with
                                                                                                                       Constant
                                                                                  Change to the Load                       Load
                                                                                                Factor                   Factor
     2010     137885                          28954.1                 0.543629              -0.003659                     28761
     2011     139195                          29402.3                 0.540428              -0.003201                     29034
     2012     140425                          29813.5                 0.537684              -0.002744                     29290
     2013     141550                          30180.7                 0.535398              -0.002287                     29525
     2014     142565                          30501.3                 0.533569              -0.001829                     29737
     2015     143500                          30780.5                 0.532197              -0.001372                     29932
     2016     144395                          31025.8                 0.531282              -0.000915                     30118
     2017     145275                          31241.8                 0.530825              -0.000457                     30302
                                                                                             0.000000
1)          Run short-run energy and peak models get change in natural load factor.
            Calculate the decrement by dividing load factor change by years in forecast, so that no change in year after last.

2)          Calculate changes to long-run load factor by successively adding decrement.

3)          Calculate long-run load factor by successively adding changes.

4)          Calculate peaks with long-run energy forecast and load factor.



      03d01f4c-04eb-4c7a-b25a-68141e590c5d.xls                                                                                                     calculation
CT       Energy                         Peak    Load Factor
 2007     33770                         7335       0.525565
 2008     34050                         7455       0.521393
 2009     34410                         7580       0.518217
                                                  -0.003674 Average change short-run Load Factor
                                                   0.000408 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)
Peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor                        Decrement
  2010    34760                         7706       0.514950           -0.003266
  2011    35120                         7829       0.512093           -0.002858
  2012    35450                         7940       0.509643           -0.002450
  2013    35755                         8041       0.507602           -0.002041
  2014    36030                         8129       0.505969           -0.001633
  2015    36285                         8206       0.504744           -0.001225
  2016    36525                         8274       0.503927           -0.000817
  2017    36755                         8333       0.503519           -0.000408




ME       Energy                         Peak    Load Factor
 2007     11905                         2075       0.654948
 2008     11985                         2105       0.649953
 2009     12145                         2145       0.646347
                                                  -0.004301 Average change short-run Load Factor
                                                   0.000478 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)
Peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor                        Decrement
  2010    12265                         2179       0.642525           -0.003823
  2011    12370                         2209       0.639180           -0.003345
  2012    12495                         2242       0.636313           -0.002867
  2013    12605                         2270       0.633924           -0.002389
  2014    12700                         2294       0.632012           -0.001911
  2015    12795                         2316       0.630579           -0.001434
  2016    12880                         2335       0.629623           -0.000956
  2017    12965                         2352       0.629145           -0.000478




   03d01f4c-04eb-4c7a-b25a-68141e590c5d.xls                                                                                   calculation
MA       Energy                         Peak    Load Factor
 2007     61230                        12680       0.551240
 2008     61815                        12910       0.546592
 2009     62450                        13135       0.542748
                                                  -0.004246 Average change short-run Load Factor
                                                   0.000472 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)
Peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor                        Decrement
  2010    62995                        13342       0.538974           -0.003774
  2011    63510                        13534       0.535671           -0.003303
  2012    63965                        13704       0.532840           -0.002831
  2013    64360                        13850       0.530482           -0.002359
  2014    64710                        13975       0.528594           -0.001887
  2015    65020                        14079       0.527179           -0.001415
  2016    65315                        14169       0.526235           -0.000944
  2017    65605                        14244       0.525764           -0.000472




NH       Energy                         Peak    Load Factor
 2007     11870                         2465       0.549705
 2008     12060                         2530       0.544155
 2009     12285                         2595       0.540423
                                                  -0.004641 Average change short-run Load Factor
                                                   0.000516 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)
Peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor                        Decrement
  2010    12495                         2660       0.536297           -0.004125
  2011    12705                         2723       0.532688           -0.003610
  2012    12915                         2784       0.529594           -0.003094
  2013    13120                         2842       0.527015           -0.002578
  2014    13315                         2895       0.524952           -0.002063
  2015    13500                         2944       0.523405           -0.001547
  2016    13685                         2991       0.522374           -0.001031
  2017    13865                         3033       0.521858           -0.000516




   03d01f4c-04eb-4c7a-b25a-68141e590c5d.xls                                                                                   calculation
RI       Energy                         Peak    Load Factor
  2007     8545                         1855       0.525853
  2008     8600                         1890       0.519437
  2009     8675                         1920       0.515780
                                                  -0.005037 Average change short-run Load Factor
                                                   0.000560 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)
Peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor                        Decrement
  2010     8740                         1951       0.511303           -0.004477
  2011     8805                         1981       0.507385           -0.003917
  2012     8865                         2008       0.504028           -0.003358
  2013     8925                         2033       0.501230           -0.002798
  2014     8985                         2056       0.498991           -0.002238
  2015     9035                         2074       0.497312           -0.001679
  2016     9090                         2091       0.496193           -0.001119
  2017     9145                         2106       0.495633           -0.000560




VT       Energy                         Peak    Load Factor
 2007      6400                         1060       0.689239
 2008      6495                         1085       0.683353
 2009      6575                         1105       0.679249
                                                  -0.004995 Average change short-run Load Factor
                                                   0.000555 Load factor decrement (change divided by years in long-run + 1)
Peak forecast based on energy and Load Factor                        Decrement
  2010     6635                         1122       0.674810           -0.004440
  2011     6685                         1137       0.670925           -0.003885
  2012     6735                         1152       0.667595           -0.003330
  2013     6785                         1165       0.664820           -0.002775
  2014     6825                         1176       0.662600           -0.002220
  2015     6865                         1186       0.660935           -0.001665
  2016     6900                         1194       0.659825           -0.001110
  2017     6940                         1202       0.659270           -0.000555




   03d01f4c-04eb-4c7a-b25a-68141e590c5d.xls                                                                                   calculation

				
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posted:11/25/2011
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