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The Nile Basin Stand-Off

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					Water in the Arab World
  Management Perspectives and
         Innovations
       (World Bank Publication)

       Round Table Intervention
                  By
           A.M.Farahat
        Prof. INP, Cairo, Egypt
                   Introduction
   A water handbook .. A cornucopia of
    themes
   Covers technical, economic, legal and
    management topics
   Alternatively it could be classified into:
       Regional Issues : Basin-wide cooperation and;
       National Issues : Water Governance
                Introduction
     In this intervention we will be reviewing one
issue only from the first category in which INP was
involved over the past couple of years or so
namely; the Nile Basin Initiative, NBI

      It is worth mentioning, however, that this
presentation is about the NBI not about the Nile
itself
            NILE BASIN INITIATIVE (NBI)
                   A Bird’s Eye View

                      CONTENTS

   MAIN FEARURES (1999 to date)
   JOINT MULTIPURPOSE PROGRAM (JMP,2005 to date)
   INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING PROJECT (ISP, 2010-
    2012)
   COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT (CFA)
   THE WATER SECURITY ISSUE
   CONCLUDING REMARKS
Nile Basin Initiative
    A Bird’s Eye View
THE NILE BASIN
NBI:Main Features
              NBI:MAIN FEATURES
                  (1999 to date)
                   Two Sub-Basins
   Eastern Nile (EN)
    Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia
   Nile Equatorial Lakes (NEL)
    Egypt, Sudan, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda,
    Rwanda, Burundi and Democratic Republic of
    Congo (DRC)
   Eriteria is an observer because its boundaries
    with Ethiopia is not yet agreed upon
           NBI:MAIN FEATURES
               (1999 to date)
                Prior Attempts
   1967-1992   HYDROMET
   1992-1998   TECCONILE
   1999        Nile Basin Initiative
         NBI:MAIN FEATURES
             (1999 to date)
              Shared Vision


To achieve sustainable socio-economic
development through equitable utilization
of, and benefit from, the common Nile
water resource
          NBI:MAIN FEATURES
              (1999 to date)
                 Shared Vision
              Programmatic Structure
Three Programs:
 Shared Vision Program:

  Objective: Building Trust and Capacities
 Two Strategic Action Programs:

  Objective: Investment –Oriented Action on
 the Ground
             NBI:MAIN FEATURES
                 (1999 to date)
                  Shared Vision
               Programmatic Structure
   Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program
    (ENSAP)
   Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action
    Program
    (NELSAP)
            NBI:MAIN FEATURES
                (1999 to date)
              Shared Vision Program
                Underlying Principles


   Win-win situation
   No Harm
   Building Trust
             NBI:MAIN FEATURES
                 (1999 to date)
               Shared Vision Program
                  Thematic Projects
   Socio-economic and Benefits Sharing
   Confidence-Building and Stakeholder
    Involvement
   Efficient Water Use and Drainage
   Water Resources Planning & Management
   Regional Power Trade
   Nile Transboundary Environmental Action
   Applied Training
         NBI:MAIN FEATURES
             (1999 to date)
          Shared Vision Program



Confidence Building and Stakeholder Involvement
              NBI:MAIN FEATURES
                  (1999 to date)
                Shared Vision Program
                     SDBS Project
   Network of Participating Institutions (PIs), one
    from each of the 9 NB countries
   Institute of National Planning (INP) from Egypt
   Adopted a Clustering Scheme
   INP was involved in a Cross-Border Trade (CBT)
    cluster
               NBI:MAIN FEATURES
                   (1999 to date)
                 Shared Vision Program
                       INP Activities
   2006         :
    CBT Concept Note
   2007         :
    CBT Scoping Study (VW issue was Highlighted)
          Lead the CBT cluster
   2008         :
    Further CBT studies related to:
      Utilization of the Nile for CBT

      Some economic aspects of Power Trade

      Equatorial Ports and CBT
          NBI:MAIN FEATURES
              (1999 to date)
           Shared Vision Program
               Our Conviction
       The Horse and Carriage Dilemma

Throughout this project, it was clear that socio-
economic cooperation in the form of CBT and
investment promotion as stated in the SV was
the true framework that can solve any sensitive
water issues
The Joint Multipurpose
   Program (JMP)
THE JOINT MULTIPURPOSE PROGRAM
              (JMP)
                     Mandate
   ENCOM 19 Meeting, Alexandria, 2005
   …to initiate efforts to ”identify and
    prepare a major initial project, within a
    broader multipurpose program, to
    demonstrate the benefits of a cooperative
    approach to the management and
    development of the Eastern Nile”
THE JOINT MULTIPURPOSE PROGRAM
              (JMP)
                    The Launch Phase
   In 2008 ENTRO successfully completed activities
    of the launch phase. These are mainly:
      Conceptualization of JMP

      “No-border” One System Inventory (OSI)

      An independent Scoping Study

   The initial project became known as JMP1
              Eastern Nile Joint Multipurpose Program



                     Regional
                    institutions

                                        Floodplain
    ANCHOR                             management
    Dam + hydro
Power transmission
Reservoir watershed
                              JMP1                          JMP2
+ regional ‘hotspots’

                                    Watershed
                                   management
                                   - ‘livelihood’
             Irrigation




                                                     JMP3

                          etc…
THE JOINT MULTIPURPOSE PROGRAM
              (JMP)
            Eastern Nile Sub-Basins

   Main Nile Sub-Basin
   Tekeze -Setit- Atbara
   Blue Nile (Abbay)
   Baro – Akobo - Sobat
    The Eastern Nile Sub-Basins











THE JOINT MULTIPURPOSE PROGRAM
              (JMP)
                 The Launch Phase

   The Scoping Study favored the Blue Nile sub-
    basin as the first basin for JMP1
THE JOINT MULTIPURPOSE PROGRAM
              (JMP)
                The Identification Phase
                      (JMP1-IDEN)
   Objective is the identification of projects
    constituting the first JMP 1 on the Abbay/Blue
    and Main Nile
   A Strategic Social Environmental Assessment
    SSEA
    THE JOINT MULTIPURPOSE PROGRAM
                  (JMP)
          Strategic Social Environmental Assessment
                             (SSEA)
   Stage 1:
    to establish a “baseline” i.e current situation or no JMP1
   Stage 2:
    Against this baseline to strategically assess two main
    “Development Alternatives”; namely:
      Many small dams on the Abbay tributaries, and

      One (or more) major multi-purpose dams on the
       Abbay
    THE JOINT MULTIPURPOSE PROGRAM
                  (JMP)
      Strategic Social Environmental Assessment
                         (SSEA)
   If the second Development Alternative is Deemed
    Appropriate, then a portfolio of “Cascade Development
    Scenarios” will be prepared by the consultant
THE JOINT MULTIPURPOSE PROGRAM
              (JMP)
                The Identification Phase
                      (JMP1-IDEN)
   Parallel Studies:
       Irrigation Development and Modernization Study
       Watershed Management Study
   Anchor Project
    Integration of above
THE JOINT MULTIPURPOSE PROGRAM
              (JMP)
  Strategic Social Environmental Assessment

The role of the consultant is to provide
information and facilitate communication among
stakeholders including governments in such a
way to assist them to make informative
decisions. This role is brone to a catalyst rather
than professional providing conclusive answers
to the problems at hand.
THE JOINT MULTIPURPOSE PROGRAM
              (JMP)
                      Power Trade
   Egypt’s Electric energy by 2050 is estimated at
    50 billion megawatt. hour
   20% of the above is renewable energy (12%
    wind energy and 8% hydropower and solar
    energy)
   A power trade study was conducted by a
    consortium of international consultant
   Phase I established the prefeasibility of the
    project
    THE JOINT MULTIPURPOSE PROGRAM
                  (JMP)
                   Power Trade, cnt’d
   Phase II focused on the transmission line between
    Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt
   According to the study, Egypt will import 2000
    megawatt. hour and Sudan will import 1200 megawatt.
    hour
   This constitutes 4% of Egypt’s electric energy in 2050
   EEHC and MWRI emphasize the need for a dynamic
    cascade and dams filling study to alleviate any
    detrimental effect on the head behind AHD
Potential Multipurpose Project Sites in Ethiopia




 Border




          Mandaya                   Karadobi

                    Beko Abo
Institutional Strengthening
        Project (ISP)
        2010-2012
       Institutional Strengthening Project (ISP)
                        2010-2012


              Towards a Nile Basin Commission

   The ultimate goal was to institutionalize cooperation by
    establishing a Nile Basin Commission
   To migrate to this end a transition period of 3 years was
    needed
   During this period an Institutional Strengthening Project
    (ISP) was designed and approved for this purpose.
        Institutional Strengthening Project (ISP)
                         2010-2012

               Towards a Nile Basin Commission

   Is a critical part of an ongoing process to build up, boost
    and fortify the Nile Basin Initiative to be in position to
    meet the challenges that it is currently facing, as well as
    challenges it is likely to face in the future.
   3-year duration 2009-2011
   Became ready in October 2009
   funded by the riparian governments and donors
  Institutional Strengthening Project (ISP)
                   2010-2012

            Towards a Nile Basin Commission




ISP provides time and resources to NBI to resolve
          issues and ensure sustainability
       Institutional Strengthening Project (ISP)
                        2010-2012

                      Towards a Nile Basin Commission

Total cost: USD 33.76 million


         Source      Contribu
                         tion           GTZ
                       (USD)
  Nile Basin Trust      24.02   CBSI Project
     Fund (NBTF)
         Country         1.91     Country
    contributions               Contributions

     CBSI Project        1.08          NBTF
             GTZ         6.75
           TOTAL        33.76                   0%   20%   40%   60%   80%
Institutional Strengthening Project (ISP,2010-
                      2012)


       Towards a Nile Basin Commission



 Throughout this project, the legal aspects for
 the Nile Basin Commission could be
 articulated in what is referred to as a
 Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA)
The Cooperative Framework
     Agreement (CFA)
     The Cooperative Framework
          Agreement (CFA)

Has three aspects:
 Legal aspects

 Institutional aspects

 Information exchange aspects

All aspects are agreed upon except three
points that are disputed
      The Cooperative Framework
           Agreement (CFA)
                Current Dispute

   Water Security
   Prior Notification
   Agreements by majority not consensus.
    Majority should include downstream countries
    namely; Sudan and Egypt
The Water Security Issue
          The Water Security Issue

               Institutional Set-up in Egypt

   The High Supreme Committee headed by the Prime
    Minister
   The Legal Committee headed by the Minister of WRI
   Nile Water Sector : An executive secretariat
   NBI National Bureau
           The Water Security Issue

Prior to 1959:
 Natural flow at Aswan                         84 BCM
        59.5 BCM from the Ethiopian Plateau
        24.5 BCM from the equatorial Plateau
   Share of Egypt                              48 BCM
   Share of Sudan                               4 BCM
   Waste in the Mediterranean                  32 BCM
      The Water Security Issue


After 1959:
 High Aswan Dam was built to save this    32 BCM
 Lost due to evaporation                 10 BCM
 Remainder of 22 BCM were distributed as follows:

     Sudan                               14.5 BCM
     Egypt                               7.5 BCM
           The Water Security Issue


   Previous share of Egypt       48 BCM
   Addition from HAD             7.5 BCM
   Total                         55.5 BCM
           The Water Security Issue

   Aswan Dam regulates the Nile flow annually
   High Aswan Dam regulates the flow over the century
   Aswan Dam was an Egyptian undertaking. It needed no
    Agreement with Sudan
   1959 treaty is deposited at the Treaty Section of the
    United Nations
   It can only be cancelled by approval of the signatory
    parties
                The Water Security Issue

   1929 convention
       Signed during the British Colonization
   Vienna Succession Convention of 1978
       Boundaries inherited from the colonial era not to be changed)
       International Court of Justice ruled in 1989 that convention is
        applicable on water disputes
   Letters of intent between the presidents of Egypt and
    Ethiopia in 1993
Concluding Remarks
          Concluding Remarks
                     Positive aspects

Generally, the NBI has made considerable progress in
  establishing a transitional institutional structure that
  has yielded multiple benefits, namely:
          Concluding Remarks
                 Positive aspects

   Improved dialogue between riparians
   “Working together” atmosphere
   Importance of international community and
    donor agencies
   There is a political will for an agreement
          Concluding Remarks
                     Positive aspects
1.   Considerable progress has been made towards
     preparation of the Cooperative Framework
     Agreement
2.   Governance structures established under the
     NBI (Nile-COM, Nile-TAC, RPSCs, etc) have
     provided important mechanisms for
     constructive dialogue, joint planning and water
     resources development amongst riparians
          Concluding Remarks

                    Positive aspects
3.   The foundations for knowledge-based IWRM
     have been build under the SVP through
     development of databases, DSSs and GIS tools;
     information sharing and involvement have been
     promoted
4.   Under the SAPS, tangible benefits are being
     delivered. In the NELSAP region they include
     the Rusumo Falls HEP Project, in the ENSAP
     region the EN-JMP Project.
            Concluding Remarks
                       Personal Views

   Water is a National Security issue for Egypt
   It depends on Nile waters for 97% of its needs. DRC
    dependency on the Nile is 0%
   The term was abused
   National security should be restricted only to Water and
    Sinai issues, and in this order
            Concluding Remarks
                        Personal Views

   Sinai could be secured if cultivated by water
   Strategic reorientation is required
   Fortunately this is the case now though a bit late. Better
    than never
   It is a State responsibility not one sector only in the
    MWRI
            Concluding Remarks
                       Personal Views

   CFA is different from the NBI
   CFA is a framework not an agreement. Specific projects
    will require separate agreement
   NBI is not the end of cooperation by itself. Cooperation
    attempts didn’t cease after HYDROMET or TECCONILE
   NB cooperation will continue beyond the Initiative
   A “NB Sustainability Framework” is attempted to sustain
    cooperation regardless of the CFA
           Concluding Remarks
                       Personal Views

   NBI is very well engineered and professionally prudent
   However, the devil is in the application details
   Water resources is abundant. It is not a zero-sum game
   1600 BCM annually. 96% are wasted
   It is a water management problem
             Concluding Remarks
                         Personal Views
   Diversion canals in the swamp areas of Bahr El Ghazal
    and Bahr El Gebal can save huge amounts of water

    Diversion canal                       Mashar     4 BCM
    Diversion canal                 Bahr El Ghazal   7 BCM
    Diversion canals                       Jongly
                                        Phase one    4 BCM
                                        Phase two    3 BCM
    To be divided equally Between Egypt & Sudan      18 BCM
             Concluding Remarks
                              Personal Views
   The socio-economic signpost of the SV was not strictly adhered to.
   SVP program was supposed to identify projects for investments in
    the other two subsidiary action programs
   There was a predetermined inclination towards hydropower projects
    in Ethiopia (Move to JMP & Blue Nile sub-basin rather than Bako-
    Aboro-Sobat)
   Water is the core of potential cooperation.
   However, it is a rather sensitive issue that only could be solved
    within a win-win scheme
   Not enough progress is achieved in investment promotion or CBT.
          Concluding Remarks
                   Personal Views

   Who is in the driving seat
   Historically, the World Bank was called upon by
    Egypt
   Some benefits from the Initiative, e.g West Delta
    Irrigation Project
          Concluding Remarks
                    Personal Views
   Egypt is not against hydropower projects in
    Ethiopia
   Dam projects are beneficial in reducing
    sedimentation in Lake Nasser
   Water cannot be trapped. The dam has to be
    filled and emptied annually to generate power
   Dams in Ethiopia cannot be used for irrigation
    due to topography
64
            Concluding Remarks
                    Personal Views
   Egypt’s legal position is sound
   Supported by international treaties, e.g:
       1929 agreement with Uganda
       1959 agreement with Sudan
       1902 Agreement with the Emperor of Ethiopia
   The argument that these agreements are signed
    during the colonial period is not valid
   Ethiopia is the only country in Africa that was
    not occupied
          Concluding Remarks
                    Personal Views
   Articles 11 & 12 of Vienna Succession
    “Convention” of 1978 on borders which is
    applicable to water
   1969 Convention
   However, the legal position should be supported
    by force
   The equitable utilization and no harm principles
    are standard in all water agreements
            Concluding Remarks
                        Personal Views

   It is clear that the no harm principle during negotiation
    was not respected
   In 2006 there was a sudden move towards a JMP
    program in EN sub-basin
The issue is now candidate
for international arbitration.
THANK YOU

				
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