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Ascension Parish Comprehensive Curriculum
Concept Correlation
Unit 8: Examining Chances
Time Frame: 3 Weeks
Big Picture: (Taken from Unit Description and Student Understanding)
 The interaction of events affects probability.
 Probability is the mathematics of chance.
 Sampling affects the relationship between experimental and theoretical probability.

Activities                                                           Documented GLEs
Guiding Questions                Essential Activities are denoted   GLE’s                                                                        Date and
with an asterisk                                             GLEs
GLEs             Method of
Concept 1: Probability                                                                                  Bloom’s Level
Activity 106: Let Me Count                                                                                       Assessment
the Ways                             42                       Select random samples
33. Can students recognize and                                                                     that are representative of
discuss ways that                GQ 34

DOCUMENTATION
the population, including
randomness contributes to        Activity 107: How Many                                        sampling with and
surveys, experiments, and        Ways?                                42, 43                   without replacement,
games of chance?                 GQ 34                                                         and explain the effect of           41
Activity 108: What does the                                   sampling on bias (D-2-
34. Can students calculate and       Cookie Thief Look Like?              43                       M) (D-4-M)
interpret single- and            GQ 34                                                         (Evaluation)
multiple-event probabilities     *Activity 109: Independent
in a wide variety of             Events                               45
situations, including            GQ 33, 34                                                     Use experimental data
independent, mutually
presented in tables and
exclusive, and dependent,
graphs to make outcome
non-mutually exclusive
Activity 110: Dependent                                       predictions of
settings?                                                                                                                          44
Events                               45                       independent events (D-
GQ 33, 34                                                     5-M)(Evaluation)

8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8: Examining Chances
8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8: Examining Chances
Activity 111: Is It Fair?             Calculate, illustrate, and
45
GQ 33, 34                             apply single- and
Concept 2: Sampling and              *Activity 112: Selecting a            multiple-event
Experimental Data                    Sample                       41       probabilities, including
GQ 33, 35                             mutually exclusive,                 45
33. Can students recognize and       Activity 113: Experimental            independent events and
discuss ways that                Probabilities                         non-mutually exclusive,
randomness contributes to        GQ 33                        44       dependent events (D-5-
surveys, experiments, and                                              M) (Synthesis)
games of chance?
*Activity 114: Who Did It?   41, 44
35. Can students suggest ways        GQ 33, 35
of minimizing bias in
sampling or surveys through
the use of random samples?       Activity 115: Replacement to 41, 44
Sample Set
GQ 33, 35

8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8: Examining Chances
8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8: Examining Chances

Unit 8 Concept 1: Probability

GLEs
*Bolded GLEs are assessed in this unit.

42 Use lists, tree diagrams, and tables to apply the concept of permutations to
represent an ordering with and without replacement (D-4-M) (Synthesis)
43 Use lists and tables to apply the concept of combinations to represent the number
of possible ways a set of objects can be selected from a group (D-4-M) (Analysis)
45 Calculate, illustrate, and apply single- and multiple-event probabilities,
including mutually exclusive, independent events and non-mutually exclusive,
dependent events (D-5-M) (Synthesis)

Purpose/Guiding Questions:                        Vocabulary:
33. Can students recognize and discuss ways           Dependent Events
that randomness contributes to surveys,           Experimental Probability
experiments, and games of chance?                 Independent Events
34. Can students calculate and interpret              Multiple Event Probability
single- and multiple-event probabilities          Single Event Probability
in a wide variety of situations, including        Theoretical Probability
independent, mutually exclusive, and
dependent, non-mutually exclusive
settings?

Key Concepts
    Calculate single-event and multiple-
event probability, including
occurrence of mutually exclusive and
independent events, and of non-
mutually exclusive and dependent
events.
Assessment Ideas:                                 Resources:
 See end of Unit 8                                Spinners
 Number Cubes
Activity Specific Assessments:                        Cards
 Activity 107, 109, 110, 111                      Paper Clips
 Styrofoam Plates
 Independent Events Handout
 Dependent Events Handout
 Is It Fair Handout
Resources

Writing Strategies
See the Teacher-Made Supplemental Resources for Daily Problems to use with journal writing.

8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8-Examining Chances                                                    126
8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8: Examining Chances

Instructional Activities
Note: Essential activities are key to the development of student understandings of each concept.
Substituted activities must cover the same GLEs at the same Bloom’s level.

Activity 106: Let Me Count the Ways (LCC Unit 8 Activity 2)
(GLE: 42)
Materials List: pencil, paper, math learning log, How Many Ways? BLM

Have students work in groups of four and determine how many ways they could possibly line up
in a single-file line. Ask them to record each of the ways that this could occur. Discuss the
student results and have the groups make observations about the relationship of the results and the
number of ways they could line up.
Answer: There are four students, so there are four possible students eligible for position
1; 3 possible for position 2; 2 possible for position 3; and only 1possible for position 4
giving a total of 6 different ways for them to line up with student 1 first. Therefore, there
are a total of 24 different ways for the students to line up when students 2 – 4 are included
in first place. The following are ways to show students an organized manner to determine

The following lists are all possible ways the four students can line up:
ABCD ACDB BACD BADC CABD CBDA DABC DBCA

The diagram below illustrates the same part of the problem as the list above, but in a tree
diagram. This is only for Student A, and there will be the same number of arrangements for
students B, C, and D.

3rd S tudent C       4th S tudent D

2nd S tudent B
4th S tudent C
3rd S tudent D

3rd S tudent C        4th S tudent D

1st S tudent A    2nd S tudent B
3rd S tudent D        4th S tudent C

3rd S tudent C       4th S tudent D
2nd S tudent B
3rd S tudent D       4th S tudent C

Stress that there are four student positions possible when the first person lines up, then there are
only 3 people left for the second spot, then two people left for the 3rd spot and at this point only 1
person for the last spot.

A permutation is an arrangement or listing in which order is important. A combination is an
arrangement or listing in which order is not important. As in this example, the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th
place in line is different as determined by which student is in each position, making this a

8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8-Examining Chances                                                             127
8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8: Examining Chances
permutation. If we were forming a group of four students for a project, it would not matter which
order the students were picked, making it a combination.

The number of permutations possible when all members of the initial set are used without
replacement can also be found mathematically by multiplying the number of members available
for each place in the order.

Example:
4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 24 4 people for 1st place, 3 people for 2nd place, 2 people for 3rd place and 1
person for 4th place. This is represented by factorial notation. A factorial (n!) is the product of a
whole number and every positive whole number less than itself
Write: 4! = 4 x 3 x 2x 1
Say: Four factorial equals four times three times two times one.

Challenge students to use what they know about permutations and determine the number of ways
that Pepperoni Pizza, Hamburger Pizza, Canadian Bacon Pizza, Vegetable Pizza and Extra
Cheese Pizza (order) can be listed on a menu for the local restaurant. Allow students to use lists,
tables, or tree diagrams to aid them in determining the number of permutations. Have them share
the diagram they used with others.
Answer: There are 5 possible choices for the first pizza listed, 4 possible choices
for the second pizza listed, 3 possible choices for the third pizza listed, 2 possible
choices fore the fourth pizza listed and then only one will be left for the last
position. 5! (5x4x3x2x1 = 120 ways)

Explain that the problems done thus far are permutations without replacement and all the
members of the initial set are used. Tell students that it is also possible to find permutations
without replacement using only some members of the initial set. For example, if there are four
students, it is possible to find all the different ways only 2 of the students can line up.. Put
students in groups. Have half of the groups create a list and the others a tree diagram to find the
different ways 2 out of the 4 students can line up. There are 4 students so 4 students are possible
for position 1, and 3 students possible for position 2. This gives 3 possible ways to line up with
student 1 first. Therefore there are a total of 12 different ways for 2 out of 4 students to line up.

List:           AB BC CD DA
AC BD CA DB

Tree Diagram:
The diagram below is only for Student A, and there will be the same number of arrangements for
students B, C and D. Stress that there are four students who can take the first position when
lining up and then there are only 3 people left for the second spot. Reminder, only 2 of the 4
students available are being lined up.

2ndstudent B

1st student A                2nd student C

2nd student D
8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8-Examining Chances                                                      128
8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8: Examining Chances

Mathematically: The number of permutations possible when some members of the initial set are
used without replacement can be found mathematically by multiplying the number of members
available for each place in the order.

Example:
4 x 3 = 12 4 people for 1st place and 3 people for 2nd place make possible permutations
or arrangements.

Distribute How Many Ways? BLM and have the students work individually or in pairs to
determine the number of possible outcomes for the different situations given. Have students
discuss answers with larger groups or have a class discussion.

Have students use their math learning logs (view literacy strategy descriptions) to explain in their
own words the difference in determining the possible number of combinations for placing 3
pictures out of a set of 5 pictures in a certain position on a wall and the possible number of ways
three people can finish running a race when six people are running.
They should use a tree diagram, chart or list, or mathematical way to justify their answers in their
math learning logs.

FYI – You can‟t use the factorial notation because you are not using all members of the set for
your line up, only two of them at one time.
As you monitor students working on this problem, question them about the similarities and
differences of these situations to the previous situation.

This website can be used as an introduction to probability and has an interactive spinner, die, and
a collection of colored marbles. http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/intro_probability.html

Activity 107: How Many Ways? (LCC Unit 8 Activity 3)
(GLEs: 42, 43)
Materials List: paper, pencil, chart paper, marker, Which is it? BLM, calculators

Begin class using SQPL (view literacy strategy descriptions) by having partners brainstorm (view
literacy strategy descriptions) two to three questions they would like answered about the
following statement.
There would be more possible combinations of officers for a class (President, Vice
President, Secretary, and Treasurer) than there would be combinations of four-
person committees from a class of ten students.

Write the SQPL statement on the board or overhead for students to see. Have pairs then share
their questions with the class. The class will make a list of questions that it hopes to be answered
during the lesson. Post this list of questions as the lesson progresses. An internal summary can be
made by pointing out to the students that they can now answer certain questions that they had.

As the lesson begins, pose a situation where a five-person committee must be formed from seven
individuals to plan for an upcoming event. Challenge students to determine the number of
different committees that could be formed from these seven students. This will be different from

8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8-Examining Chances                                                    129
8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8: Examining Chances
those problems done previously, because in these, order is not important. The combinations are
shown in the list at the right.

Next, pose a scenario where five individuals must fill the five roles of officers: one person is the
president, one is the vice president, one is the secretary, one is the treasurer, and one is the
historian. Ask if any one of the five students could serve in any of the positions, then ask how
many different ways this group of five officers could be selected. Lead discussion about the
similarities and differences in these situations and whether or not order is important.

Answer: First scenario – 21 different 5 person committees. Order does not change the make up of
the committees.

Answer: Second scenario – 120 different ways. 5×4×3×2×1 (Order is important because if the
person is selected for President, it is different than if that person is chosen for Secretary.)

Make sure the discussion of these scenarios involves some brainstorming by students of situations
in which order is important (permutations) and not important (combinations).

Distribute Which Is It? BLM and have students practice determining whether the situation
involves a combination or a permutation and provides practice for the students in solving these
problems. Discuss student responses on the BLM as a class to clarify any misconceptions.

1,2,3,4,5     1,2,5,6,7   2,3,5,6,7
1,2,3,4,6     1,3,4,5,6   2,4,5,6,7
1,2,3,4,7     1,3,4,5,7   3,4,5,6,7
1,2,3,5,6     1,3,4,6,7
1,2,3,5,7     1,3,5,6,7
1,2,3,6,7     1,4,5,6,7
1,2,4,5,6     2,3,4,5,6
1,2,4,5,7     2,3,4,5,7
1,2,4,6,7     2,3,4,6,7

Assessment
Secure menus from a restaurant that advertises several ways its product can be purchased (e.g.,
Burger King, Baskin-Robbins Ice Cream), and the student will determine the validity of the
claim.

Activity 108: What does the Cookie Thief Look Like? (LCC Unit 8 Activity 4)
(GLE: 43)
Materials List: Who Stole the Cookies? BLM, paper, pencil, newsprint or chart paper, markers

Provide students with Who Stole the Cookies? BLM and read the situation aloud to the class.

Jackie worked at a restaurant in the evening. She had a locker in the back where she put
all of her personal belongings. One night she bought a big box of cookies to take to her
grandmother the next day. She put this box of cookies in her locker so that she could take
it home after work. When she went back to the locker at 10:00 P.M. after work, the
cookies were gone! One of her friends saw a stranger at the lockers about 9:30 P.M.
8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8-Examining Chances                                                      130
8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8: Examining Chances
Jackie and her friend talked to the store manager, and they were given a list of possible
characteristics to help in identification.

The characteristics were given to the friends in a chart like the one on Who Stole the Cookies?
BLM. Challenge pairs of students to come up with all the different descriptions possible for the
cookie thief. Have the pairs of students determine the different combinations of descriptions that
could have described the thief. Then have them display their findings using some type of chart or
graph.

Once the student pairs have completed their description, randomly select one group to be
professor-know-it-all (view literacy strategy descriptions) and have it explain to the class the
different descriptions and its method of organizing their descriptions. Allow class members to
ask questions of the group that is professor-know-it-all.

*Activity 109: Independent Events (LCC Unit 8 Activity 6)
(GLE: 45)
Materials List: number cubes, pencil, paper

Have groups of four students create a game of chance like Yahtzee® using number cubes. Have
students determine the rules for their game, the materials (die, spinner, cards, etc) and then justify
how the theoretical probability of winning makes their game a fair game. After playing the game
several times, explore the experimental probabilities of obtaining each of the required outcomes.
For example, explore the possibility of rolling all number cubes and getting the same number on
each. The roll of each die is independent. Have students exchange games with another group and
follow the rules determined by the game‟s creator. Compare experimental results with the
theoretical results. Lead classroom discussion about the independent events involved in each of
the games created. (See Teacher-Made Supplemental Resources)

Assessment
The student will create a game of chance in which player 1 has twice the chance of winning
as player 2.

Assessment
The student will play several different games of chance and then analyze the probabilities of
winning.

Activity 110: Dependent Events (LCC Unit 8 Activity 7)
(GLE: 45)
Materials List: styrofoam plates, paper clips, Dependent Events BLM, pencil, paper

Create a multiple-event experiment where the events are dependent, and have the students
determine the probability of a result. Have each group of four students make two spinners with
sturdy plates that have the thumbprints or dimples around the edge such as the Hefty® brand of
plate. Secure a paper clip as the spinner by using a second paper clip through the bottom of the
plate. These plates are already divided into 36 thumbprints so the students can easily divide the
plate into thirds or fourths. Divide one of the plates into thirds and let this plate represent the
number of coins. Allow students to determine the numbers in each section but encourage them to
use numbers less than 10. It will make it easier for class discussion if the groups use the same

8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8-Examining Chances                                                     131
8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8: Examining Chances
three numbers (possibly-2, 5, 10). Divide the second plate into fourths and write the name of a
coin in each of the four sections (possibly-penny, nickel, dime, quarter). Distribute Dependents
Events BLM and explain to the students that they must figure the theoretical probability of
spinning less than, more than or exactly fifty cents. The groups will then collect experimental data
and record their data on a chart. An example of a possible chart is shown below:

Spin #    # of       Coin      Total      >, < or   Spin #    # of       Coin      Total      >, < or
coins      value     Value      = to                coins      value     Value      = to
of spin    \$.50                                     of spin    \$.50

1                                                 10
2                                                 11
3                                                 12
...                                                ...

Have students compare their experimental results with their theoretical results. Then have groups
of students compare results with other groups. Discuss how the results might be different if the
spinners were not fair spinners. Sample size should also be part of the discussion. Relate the
situation to a possible game at the fair or some other carnival. Discuss the probability of winning
prizes at the fair. (See Teacher-Made Supplemental Resources)

Assessment
The student will prepare directions and make a game that involves dependent events. The
student will describe the game using the theoretical probability of outcomes to describe how
the game is won.

Activity 111: Is It Fair? (LCC Unit 8 Activity 8)
(GLE: 45)
Materials List: two number cubes of different color, paper, pencil

Provide pairs of students with two number cubes of different colors. Ask students to roll the
number cubes and find the product of the two cubes. Player 1 will be the tallest person, and will
roll both number cubes first. If the product of the numbers rolled is odd, player 1 will receive two
points. If the product is even, player two will get 1 point. Have play continue until one of the
players reaches 20 points. Repeat the game exchanging positions of player 1 and player 2. After
the students have played the game at least two times, have the students create a table showing the
theoretical probability of each product‟s occurring. Ask students then to determine the probability
of an odd or even product and whether the game rules were fair.

Challenge the groups to determine rules that would create a fair game using number cube
products. To do this, have the students form groups of four to make a modified story chain (view
literacy strategy descriptions). Student 1 will be the person closest to the teacher, and the
students will be numbered clockwise from Student 1. Student 1 will write the first in a set of
rules for making a fair game with the number cubes, pass the paper to Student 2 who will in turn
write the second rule or step, Student 3 and then Student 4. This will continue until the group has
completed their rules for the game. Each student in the group should then get a chance to read
and challenge any of the rules or steps written so that their game is fair. Have groups follow the
steps or rules that have been written to play the game and determine if each player has an equal
8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8-Examining Chances                                                         132
8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8: Examining Chances
chance of winning. An exit ticket is a student summary of the lesson as they respond to a prompt
or questions from the teacher. Have the students use an exit ticket to provide written individual
explanations of why their rules created a fair game.

Lead discussion with the class about whether the events involved in the game were independent
or dependent events. (See Teacher-Made Supplemental Resources)

Assessment
The student will prepare a presentation to explain how theoretical probability is used to make
predictions like the weather forecast.

Assessment
 The student will make four different sketches of polygons with a shaded area inside or
outside of the polygon that would illustrate a 25%, 50%, 75% and 60% probability of
an object falling randomly on each figure and landing on the shaded area.
Example: the figure at the right would represent a 50% probability
of a randomly dropped object that would fall on the figure landing

Assessment
The student will complete a probability project assessed by a teacher-created rubric.

8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8-Examining Chances                                                   133
8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8: Examining Chances
Unit 8 Concept 2: Sampling and Experimental Data

GLEs
*Bolded GLEs are assessed in this unit.

41 Select random samples that are representative of the population, including
sampling with and without replacement, and explain the effect of sampling on
bias (D-2-M) (D-4-M)(Evaluation)
44 Use experimental data presented in tables and graphs to make outcome
predictions of independent events (D-5-M)(Evaluation)

Purpose/Guiding Questions:                        Vocabulary:
33. Can students recognize and discuss ways           Population
that randomness contributes to surveys,           Random
experiments, and games of chance?                 Sample
35. Can students suggest ways of                      Survey
minimizing bias in sampling or surveys
through the use of random samples?

Key Concepts
 Analyze data considering random
sampling, sample size, bias, and data
extremes.
 Understand the concept of a sample
and sampling with/without
replacement.
 Use experimental data presented in
tales or graphs to make outcome
predictions based on the probability
of independent events; and explain
predictions based on an
understanding of the logic of
probability.
Assessment Ideas:                                 Resources:
 See end of Unit 8.                               Glencoe Book 3 (Eighth Grade)
Textbook, Concept Summary Pages
Activity Specific Assessments:                          406-407
 Activity 112, 113, 115                           Spinners
 Paper Bags
 Multi-Colored Blocks
 Selecting a Sample Handout
 Experimental Probabilities Handout
 Who Did It Handout
Resources

8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8-Examining Chances                                                    134
8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8: Examining Chances
Writing Strategies
See the Teacher-Made Supplemental Resources for Daily Problems to use with journal writing.

Instructional Activities
Note: Essential activities are key to the development of student understandings of each concept.
Substituted activities must cover the same GLEs at the same Bloom’s level.

*Activity 112: Selecting a Sample (LCC Unit 8 Activity 1)
(GLE: 41)
Materials List: Random or Biased Sampling Opinionnaire BLM, Random or Biased Sampling
BLM, pencil, paper, brown paper bags (1 per group), color tiles (10 in each bag: 5 of one color, 3
of another color, 1 of a third color, and 1 red)

Begin class by having students work in pairs to complete the Random or Biased Sampling
Opinionnaire BLM. Opinionnaires (view literacy strategy descriptions) are tools used to elicit
attitudes about a topic. A modified Opinionnaire is being used to generate some thinking about
biased and unbiased sampling. Once the pairs of students have completed the survey, have the
pairs of students get into groups of four and discuss their answers and reasons. Have the groups
of four students write a summary statement giving their idea(s) about random sampling. Have
students share their ideas with the class prior to the discussion of surveys.

Lead a discussion about the need for surveys. Such questions as: When would a survey be done?
What would be gained from the survey? What can be found from a survey? Does it matter who is
surveyed? Have students design a survey about an issue that interests them and survey a sample
their own class. Ask students if it would be better to survey all students; however, sometimes it is
impossible to survey all members of the population. In such cases, a sample must be taken. Help
students understand that their sampling population should be random and discuss how to ensure
this randomness. Have students determine a way to randomly select a sample from the population
keep out any bias and provide a sample that is representative of the entire eighth-grade student
body.

To help students see how a random sample is selected, provide them with a bag containing 10
cubes or color tiles of 4 colors (5 of one color, 3 of another color, 1 of a third color, and 1 red)
and have them shake the bag and then remove a cube or tile and note its color (do not allow the
students to look in the bag prior to their data collection). To simulate a large population, replace
the cube drawn and then shake the bag and draw another cube, note its color, and then replace it.
Have each student determine the number of times that the process should be repeated to allow
them to make a good guess as to what the colors of the tile in the bag are and how many of each
color are in the bag, if there are 10 total cubes or tiles in the bag. Have students make predictions
as to what the next randomly selected sample color will be from their collection. Discuss how
certain they are about their prediction and then have them collect the sample. Ask how closely
each student‟s sample of 10 matched the population - this is a good time to discuss the importance
of sample size. Combine all the results in the class and then determine how closely the aggregated
data match the actual color proportions in the population. A website with an interactive „Let‟s
Make A Deal‟ probability page is available at
http://matti.usu.edu/nlvm/nav/frames_asid_117_g_4_t_2.html

8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8-Examining Chances                                                    135
8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8: Examining Chances
Tell students that they will design a survey that is based on a random sampling population. Lead a
discussion about the need for surveys. When would a survey be done? What would be gained
from the survey? What can be found from a survey? Does it matter who is surveyed? Ask student
how they could determine which color T-Shirt to order for the 8th grade party without asking each
and every student in the 8th grade. Discuss how the sample population affects the results.
Distribute the Random or Biased Sampling BLM. Have the students complete the questions
independently prior to assigning them their survey to assure understanding of biased and random
sampling.

State that it would be better to survey all students; however, sometimes it is impossible to survey
all members of the population. In such cases, a sample must be taken. Help students understand
that their sampling population should be random and discuss how to ensure this randomness.
Have students determine a way to randomly select a sample from the population of the entire 8th
grade student body. Have students design a survey about an issue that interests them and survey a
sample from the 8th grade student body. Lead a discussion about the pros and cons of just
surveying their own class. Lead a discussion about why random selection will help keep out any
bias and provide a sample that is representative of the entire 8th grade student body. Student
groups should conduct their surveys after the teacher has verified their survey question and bring
results to class.

Have students complete their survey and prepare a presentation for the class by writing a
paragraph explaining their survey question, the sample population and the results of their survey.
Student groups should present these paragraphs to the class. The presentations should give the
reason for the survey and what results were gathered. (See Teacher-Made Supplemental
Resources)

Have the students review their Random or Biased Sampling Opinionnaire BLM and make any
changes to their responses that can now be answered with a better understanding of random and
biased sampling.

Assessment
The teacher will provide the student with a survey topic and the students will describe in
his/her journal what population will be surveyed, the sample size, and the sample questions.
The student will also explain how the survey will be used. The student will conduct the
survey and prepare their results with an explanation as to how the survey results will be used.

Activity 113: Experimental Probabilities (LCC Unit 8 Activity 5)
(GLE: 44)
Materials List: styrofoam plates, paper clips, pencil, paper

Have students make a prediction based on the results of spinning a spinner that has been divided
into equal sections of three colors. These spinners can be made with the foam plates that have the
thumbprints around the circumference. Hefty plates have 36 thumbprints and are easy to divide
into equivalent sections. Have students determine the theoretical probability on any given spin.
The theoretical probability would be that on any given spin, the chances of getting any one of the
three colors is one-third; however, have students perform the experiment of spinning the spinner
twenty to thirty times and then use their experimental results to make the prediction of the next
spin.

8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8-Examining Chances                                                    136
8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8: Examining Chances
Use a real-life example:
The local mall is having a grand opening celebration. They are using a spinner like the one used
in the experiment to determine the prizewinners every fifteen minutes. They display the results
throughout the day. When you get to the mall, the spinner result display looks like the one below.
The mall official will randomly select an audience member to call a color and if that color wins,
the member will win a prize.

red             blue   yellow

Have the students work in pairs to determine what their choice would be if they were selected as
the next lucky person to spin. Students should explain answers with a sketch or diagram.
Assessment
The student will develop an experiment and then determine the experimental probability
associated with the event taking place.

*Activity 114: Who Did It? (LCC Unit 8 Activity 9)
(GLEs: 41, 44)
Materials List: Who Did It? BLM, brown lunch bags (4 for each group), 10 color tiles of four
different colors (in each of 4 bags for each group), pencil, paper

Begin the class with a discussion about sampling. Tell the students that today they will collect
results without replacement. Discuss what this means. Distribute the Who Did It? BLM to each
student, and give four brown lunch bags filled with the following (unknown to them) tile or cube
combinations: Bags should be labeled A – D and should each contain a total of 10 tiles or cubes
of four different colors. Let the students know that there are 10 tiles in each bag and four different
colors. Bag A and one of the other bags identical (have the same number of each color of cubes.

Tell the students that the sample in Bag A was found at the scene of a crime. CSI investigators
explored the contents of Bag A. When the investigators bagged the contents of Bag A, they
duplicated the items from bag A and made a second bag. A new CSI trainee was also on the
scene, and he took these bags back to the lab without labeling the second one. These bags were
placed on a box with bags from another crime scene. When the CSI went to get the bags, there
were four bags and only Bag A was labeled. The CSI knew there were two identical bags, and
these bags are very important to their case. They want to try to determine which are the identical
bags and not touch the items any more than necessary.

Discuss as a class that when sample are examined without replacement, the sample size is
constantly changing. Suppose this is what happens when the first tile is selected from the bags:
8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8-Examining Chances                                                      137
8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8: Examining Chances
Bag A – red; Bag B – red; Bag C – green; Bag D – red. Now there are only nine tiles in each bag
to select from. Challenge the students to devise a plan to sample contents of the bags without
replacement so that they can make the best prediction based on experimental probability without
looking at the contents of the bags. Suppose a red tile is selected from Bag A on the first
selection, a red tile from Bag B on the first selection, a green tile from Bag 3 on the first selection
and a red tile from Bag 4 on the first selection, based on the information collected so far, can a
good prediction be made as to the matching bags? Now there are only nine tiles in each bag to
select from. Have students record their results and make a prediction after the 6th selection from
each bag, justifying why this is their selection. Lead a discussion about whether the predictions
give enough information to make the prediction. Ask if all four bags have to be completely empty
to make a valid prediction? Have them explain their thinking and their results.

Teacher Note: Student results will be different and they will have to use some logical reasoning
as they compare the results they gather.

Activity 115: Replacement to Sample Set (LCC Unit 8 Activity 10)
(GLEs: 41, 44)
Materials List: Who Did It? BLM (Activity 114), brown lunch bags (4 for each group), 10 color
tiles of four different colors (in each of 4 bags for each group), pencil, paper

Begin class with a discussion about sampling without replacement that was done in Activity 114.
Tell the students that today they will collect results of the same problem with replacement. Have
students determine whether or not they think this method will be a better way to make a
prediction as to contents and why they made that choice. Have students take out their Who Did
It? BLM (Activity 114), and distribute the brown bags to each group of four. Have student
groups make a plan for determining the contents with replacement. They should write this plan
on the back of their Who Did It? BLM sheet. Once they have devised a plan, they should collect
their data and answer questions 4 and 5 on the Who Did It? BLM. Discuss as a class the results
and the difference in sampling with and without replacement.

Assessment
The student will prepare a poster proving that his/her prediction is based on experimental
probability after the 6th selection. The student will also use the actual contents of the bag to
compare the theoretical probability of his/her prediction after the 6th selection. The student
will include an explanation of how sampling without replacement affected their prediction.

8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8-Examining Chances                                                      138
8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8: Examining Chances
Unit 8 Assessment Options

General Assessment Guidelines
 The student will create a game of chance in which player 1 has twice the chance of
winning as player 2.
 The student will prepare a presentation to explain how theoretical probability is used
to make predictions like the weather forecast.
 The student will make four different sketches of polygons with a shaded area inside or
outside of the polygon that would illustrate a 25%, 50%, 75% and 60% probability of
an object falling randomly on each figure and landing on the shaded area.
Example: the figure at the right would represent a 50% probability
of a randomly dropped object that would fall on the figure landing
 The student will play several different games of chance and then analyze the
probabilities of winning.
 The student will develop an experiment and then determine the experimental
probability associated with the event taking place.
 Whenever possible, the teacher will create extensions to an activity by increasing the
difficulty or by asking “what if” questions.
 The student will create portfolios containing samples of their experiments and
activities.
 The student will complete a probability project assessed by a teacher-created rubric.

Activity-Specific Assessments
 Concept 1 Activity 107, 109, 110, 111
 Concept 2 Activity 1112, 113, 115

8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8-Examining Chances                                                   139
8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8: Examining Chances
Name/School_________________________________                                             Unit No.:______________

Feedback Form
This form should be filled out as the unit is being taught and turned in to your teacher coach upon completion.

Concern and/or Activity                              Changes needed*                                          Justification for changes
Number

* If you suggest an activity substitution, please attach a copy of the activity narrative formatted
like the activities in the APCC (i.e. GLEs, guiding questions, etc.).

8th Grade Mathematics: Unit 8-Examining Chances                                                                                140

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