Presentation Title to allow for 3 lines by bljmDR2O


									STEM Research and Modeling Network Meeting
                June 19, 2008
                Washington, DC

1. Welcome – Brian Fitzgerald, BHEF
2. Opening Comments – William Swanson, Raytheon
3. Introduction to the STEM Modeling Activity – Brian Fitzgerald, BHEF
4. Model Overview – Paul Benton, Raytheon
5. Modeling Higher Education – Aaron Schram, Raytheon
6. Demonstration of the Model – Dana Larson, Raytheon
7. Open Source Model Management – George Blaha, Raytheon
8. Next Steps – Chris Roe, BHEF
9. Questions/Discussion – Audience and Panel

                                                                 11/24/2011   Page 2
The STEM Education Modeling Project
   Background
    – Launched by Bill Swanson, Raytheon, and Co-Chair of BHEF STEM
   Goal
    – Assist policymakers, educators, and researchers in understanding the
      complex nature of the U.S. education system
    – Help identify potential solutions that could help strengthen U.S. STEM
   Approach
    – Create a dynamic systems engineering-based model of the P-16 STEM
      education system and beyond
    – Develop a community of researchers/model users to test and validate
      the model
    – After further development, transition the model to open source use

                                                                    11/24/2011   Page 3
    Potential Outcomes of Modeling Project
   Provides a rational, organized and comprehensive approach to viewing
    and understanding the complex, multi-level nature of the U.S. and
    STEM education pipeline

   Coalesces a unique community around a common and integrated
    platform for research, analysis, dialogue and action

   Spurs the aggregation/integration of existing research and data

   Identifies major gaps in existing research/informs the development of a
    coherent research agenda

   Provides a robust tool to simulate and assess the impact of STEM-policy
    and programmatic interventions through time

   Provides useful information that can be helpful in prioritizing among
    STEM-education interventions for implementation

                                                                      11/24/2011   Page 4
Goals for Today’s Meeting

  Demonstrate the prototype systems engineering-based
  model created by Raytheon

  Discuss/define next steps in the project
            Overall project coordination
            Launch STEM Research and Modeling Network
            Validate and refine existing prototype model
            Develop research agenda
            Further model development and link to other models
            Transition to open source

                                                              11/24/2011   Page 5
Model Overview

   Paul Benton

                 11/24/2011   Page 6
Comparison of Student Populations

                                                                                                                                in STEM

                                                       (of 3.6M)
                                                         Math                            17%                    23%
                                                       Proficient                     (of 3.6M)             (of enrolled)
                                                                                        Math                                    6%
                                                                                      Proficient                            (of 3.6M)

Source Population data: U.S. National Center for Education Statistics, Digest Education Statistics, 2002.
Source Proficiency data: Digest of Education Statistics 2005, Tables 121 and 122 for 4 and 8th grades.

                              Relatively small numbers of students make it
                        through the system and obtain a STEM bachelor’s degree
                                                                                                                            11/24/2011   Page 7
Math Proficiency and
STEM Bachelor’s Degrees Granted
   Students declaring STEM majors are approximately the same
    numbers as those that are proficient
    – 15% declare STEM, 17% are proficient or advanced

   Math proficiency drops slowly from 4th grade to 8th grade
   Falls 3% per year in high school
   9% loss during college

(Source: Tables 121 and 122, Digest of Education Statistics 2005)

                                                                    11/24/2011   Page 8
Modeling the Behavior
   Based on System Dynamics methods created by J. Forrester
   Positive Feedback Loops provide the means for dramatic changes


                                    STEM Interested
                                  +    Students

                                                             STEM Students
             STEM Capable                                    Selecting STEM
               Teachers                                         Teaching

                                                              STEM Teacher
                STEM Capable                                  College Students
                Teachers Hiring
                                   STEM Capable +
                                  Teacher Graduates
                                                                                 11/24/2011   Page 9
Simplified Representation of the
Student Flow Model

                                                                   Select    Career         Teaching
     Elementary            Secondary                 College                                 Retire
        STEM                 STEM                     STEM                   STEM
      Interested           Interested               Interested              Industry
                                                                             Career         Industry
           Gain or Lose            Gain or Lose           Gain or Lose      non-STEM
           STEM Interest           STEM Interest          STEM Interest       Career
     Elementary             Secondary                College
       STEM                  STEM                    STEM
    Un-Interested          Un-Interested           Un-Interested

             Many factors
             affect the flow

     Model helps us think about what happens when factors change

                                                                                       11/24/2011   Page 10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        percent 12th Grade
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      STEM teachers desired

Overview of the Model                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       <12th Grade STEM

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      <desired student
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      to teacher ratio>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     12th Grade STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      teachers desired

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           <STEM teacher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            effect switch>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           <total STEM

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   probability 12th Grade
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  STEM interested student
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  taught by STEM teacher

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            12th Grade STEM

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              teacher actual

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               teacher impact                        inverse teacher impact
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              12th Grade STEM                          12th Grade STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             12th Grade unSTEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               <12th Grade STEM                                teachers desired
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  percent 11th Grade
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    STEM teachers

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    11th Grade STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     <total STEM teachers                             teacher actual
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     <11th Grade                                                                                            desired>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   STEM Interested>

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           probability 11th Grade

                                                                                                           Not STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          STEM interested student
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  11th Grade STEM                                                         taught by STEM teacher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   teachers desired

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    <STEM teacher effect                                                                                teacher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      <desired student                                   switch>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      to teacher ratio>

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          teacher impact                       inverse teacher impact 11th
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     11th Grade unSTEM                   11th Grade STEM                              Grade STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       teachers desired
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 <11th Grade STEM

                                                                                                           Interested                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            percent 10th Grade STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      teachers desired

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       10th Grade STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         teacher actual

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       <total STEM

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                10th Grade STEM                                                            probability 10th Grade
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        <10th Grade                              teachers desired                                                         STEM interested student
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      STEM Interested>                                                                                                    taught by STEM teacher

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       <STEM teacher                                                                                        <STEM teacher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            <desired student
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        effect switch>                                                                                        variation>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            to teacher ratio>

Born                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Teachers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          teacher impact                        inverse teacher impact
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      10th Grade unSTEM                  10th Grade STEM                          10th Grade STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        teachers desired
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           <10th Grade STEM                                                                                                                                                                          <total STEM teachers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          desired student                                                                                                                                                                                    Uninterested>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          to teacher ratio                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   actual>

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     9th Grade STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    percent 9th Grade
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      teacher actual
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  STEM teachers desired

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        <9th Grade STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Interested>                                                                                    <total STEM teachers
                                                                                                                                                                                                              <K-4th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                9th Grade STEM                                               desired>                 probability 9th Grade
                                                                                                                                                                                                          resident time>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            teachers desired                                                                    STEM interested student
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           resident time>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          total STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        taught by STEM teacher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 teachers desired
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5th-6th eligible for                                                                                                                                              <7th-8th
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   STEM conversion                                                                                                               7th-8th eligible                 resident time>                                                   9th eligible for                       <9th resident time>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       STEM                                                                                                                                10th eligible for                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      12th eligible for STEM                                                                                                                                                    <college                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              <desired student
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    for STEM                                                                                         conversion                                                                                                                                STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   conversion                                                                                                                                                                                                                                conversion                                                                                                                    11th eligible for                                                                                                            conversion                                      <12th resident                                                                                                   resident time>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           to teacher ratio>
                                                                                                                                                                              K-4th eligible for                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                <STEM teacher effect
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 <10th resident                                                           STEM conversion                                       <11th resident                                                                                                             time>
                                                                                                                                                                              STEM conversion                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        switch>                                                                               <STEM teacher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     time>                                                                                                                         time>                                                                                                                                                                                          teacher college eligible                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   variation>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   for STEM conversion                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     inverse teacher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         teacher impact 9th
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       <9th Grade STEM                                       9th Grade unSTEM                               Grade STEM                    impact 9th Grade
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Uninterested>                                         teachers desired                                                                STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          5th-6th unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                gap desired STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          drop-out percent                                                7th-8th unSTEM                                              7th-8th unSTEM                                                  9th unSTEM                                                                                                                               10th unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            12th unSTEM death                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 teachers vs actual
                                                                                                                                                                              K-4th unSTEM                                                       5th-6th unSTEM                                                                                                          death rate percent                                                                                                                                                  9th unSTEM
                                                                                                                         K-4th unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               drop-out rate percent                                           death rate percent                       drop-out rate                                                                                   death rate percent                     10th unSTEM drop-out                                                                        11th unSTEM                                                                                                               rate percent                  12th unSTEM drop-out
                                                                                                                                                                           drop-out rate percent                                                    death rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  percent                                                                                                                                                                                                                       death rate percent                11th unSTEM drop-out                                                                                                         rate percent
                                                                                                                        death rate percent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                rate percent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               teacher college                teacher college
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      percent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        rate percent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              percent 7th-8th Grade
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   unSTEMdeath rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               <7th-8th Grade STEM                                                                                                                                    7th-8th Grade STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 unSTEM drop out rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          STEM teachers desired
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         percent                        percent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Interested>                                                                                                                                          teachers actual
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   7th-8th Grade STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     teachers desired
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      total STEM                                                                                                                                                                                <total STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  interested students                                                        <desired student                                                                                                 teachers desired>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             to teacher ratio>

                                                                                                                                                                              K-4th unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          5 halving times
                                                                                                                                 K-4th unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      9th                                                                                                                            10th unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              7th-8th Grade
                                                                                                                                                                               drop-out rate                                                    5th-6th unSTEM                                                                                                                    7th-8th unSTEM                                                                                                                unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            <12th Grade STEM                                                                                                  desired time to
                                                                                                                                   death rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   death rate                                                                                                                          death rate                                                                                                                      11th unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               unSTEM                                                                                                 <STEM teacher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     death rate                                            7th-8th unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   12th unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                              Interested>                                                                                                   close teacher gap                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               probability 7th-8th Grade
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   death rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     9th unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                          death rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          teachers desired                                                                                             variation>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             drop-out rate                                                                                                          drop-out                                                                                                                                10th unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                       death rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    <7th-8th Grade STEM                                                                                    STEM interested student
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5th-6th unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      rate                                                                                                                                 drop-out rate                                                                                                               11th unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                              teacher college
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     drop-out rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                12th unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Uninterested>                                                                                      taught by STEM teacher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        drop-out rate                                                                                                                                                                                          unSTEM death rate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  drop-out rate                                                                                                                                                                                                percent of STEM grads                          adjustment time
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                teacher college                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      <5th-6th Grade                                                                  <STEM teacher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              needed to become STEM                            STEM teacher                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         STEM Interested>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         <initial 10th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       unSTEM drop-out rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     effect switch>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     <initial 5th-6th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        <initial 9th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       teachers to close gap                                                                                                            total STEM
                                                                                                   <initial K-4th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         unSTEM>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              teachers actual
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       unSTEM>                                                                                                                   <initial 7th-8th                                                                                                            unSTEM>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       <initial 12th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                inverse teacher impact
                                                                                                    unSTEM>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  <initial 11th
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   unSTEM>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  unSTEM>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      7th-8th Grade STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              unSTEM>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           constant STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    teacher impact
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    initial college
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     percent necessary to close                  teacher salary                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               7th-8th Grade STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    7th-8th Grade STEM Uninterested                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 5th-6th Grade STEM
                                                                                                                                      K-4th Grade STEM Uninterested                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    9th Grade STEM Uninterested                                                                                                            10th Grade STEM Uninterested                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             STEM teacher gap in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5th-6th Grade STEM Uninterested                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             11th Grade STEM Uninterested                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               adjustment time                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       teachers desired
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           8th promotion rate1                                                                                                                      9th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  12th Grade STEM Uninterested                                                                                             Teacher College STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 <desired student
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                6th promotion rate1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              promotion                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               5th-6th Grade STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                              4th promotion rate1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  rate1                                                                                                                             10th graduation rate1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Uninterested                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     to teacher ratio>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          11th graduation                                                                                                                                                                                             teacher college                                                                                                                                              constant STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            teachers actual
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          <7th-8th eligible for                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                12th graduation                                                                       graduation rate1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               rate1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          percent STEM                                                                      teacher salary switch
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         unSTEM conversion>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         rate1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          percent 5th-6th Grade
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            <5th-6th eligible for                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      <9th eligible for                                                                                                                         <10th eligible for                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         teacher graduates
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           unSTEM conversion>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  unSTEM conversion>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               5th-6th Grade                                      STEM teachers desired
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     unSTEM conversion>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   <12th eligible for                                                                                                                                                                                                                      hired                                           STEM teacher                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     unSTEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              <inverse teacher                                                                               <11th eligible for                                                                                                         unSTEM conversion>                                            <1 years>                                                       <teacher college eligible                                                                                                                                      salary
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  <inverse teacher impact                                                                                                           <inverse teacher impact                                                                                                            <inverse teacher                                                                                                                      impact 10th Grade                  <1 years>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      teachers desired
                                                                                                                                                                                              <5 years>                                                                                                                                                                                                              7th-8th Grade STEM>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   unSTEM conversion>                                             <1 years>                                                                                                                                                                                  for unSTEM conversion>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          <5th-6th Grade STEM                                                                                                         <total STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5th-6th Grade STEM>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                impact 9th Grade                              <1 years>                                                                                     STEM>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  <inverse teacher                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  STEM teacher attrition                                   STEM teacher attrition
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                <2 years>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       <inverse teacher                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             STEM teacher attrition                                                                                      Uninterested>                                                                                                         teachers desired>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  <2 years>                                                                                                                                                                                                                STEM>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        impact 12th Grade                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    percent 0-3 years                                        percent 4-5 years
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     effect teacher impact                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     impact 11th Grade                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               percent 5+ years
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             effect teacher impact                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  STEM>                                                                                                                    STEM>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     7th-8th Grade STEM

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             5th-6th Grade STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           effect teacher impact                                                                                                                   effect teacher impact                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           percent going to                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 probability 5th-6th Grade
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            9th Grade STEM                                                                                                                         10th Grade STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             teaching market forces                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              STEM interested student
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         switch teacher impact                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 effect teacher impact                                                                                                     effect teacher impact                                                                                                                                                                                                                           lookup table necessary STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               taught by STEM teacher                                    <STEM teacher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5th-6th Grade STEM 5th-6th total                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       11th Grade STEM                                                                                                           12th Grade STEM                                                                                                                                                    college
                                                                                                                                                                                                 K-4th resident                                                                                                                                                                                                          switch teacher impact 7th-8th                                                                                                                      9th total students                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           teacher salary to close teacher
                                                                                                                           math                                 K-4th total                                                                                                                                                                         5th-6th                     7th-8th unSTEM                                                  total                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             12th total                                                        teacher college                                       resident time                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        variation>
                                                                                                                                                                                                     time                                    5th-6th unSTEM                                                    students                                                                                                  7th-8th Grade STEM students                               7th-8th                 9th grade unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    12th unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   gap in adjustment time
                                                                                                                       unproficiency                             students                                                                                                                                                                        resident time                   conversion rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      10th unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  students                                                       unSTEM conversion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              conversion rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                   resident time                conversion rate                                                                                                                                                                                                10th total students 10th resident time                                                                                  11th total students                                       conversion rate
                                                        K-4th grade STEM                                                  K-4th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            switch teacher impact                                                                     conversion rate                           switch teacher impact                                                                  11th unSTEM                                                                                    11th resident time                                                                                                                                                  rate
 <Initial People                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       <year>                                                                                                                   <year>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   switch teacher impact                                   12th resident
                                                       uninterested entry rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               9th Grade STEM                                        9th resident time                                                            10th Grade STEM                                                                      conversion rate                           switch teacher impact                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      STEM teacher attrition
Under 5 Women>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            12th Grade STEM                                            time                                                                                                           STEM teacher                                                                 lookup table STEM                                                                                                           STEM teacher attrition                                             STEM teacher attrition
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       <year>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   11th Grade STEM                                                                                         <year>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               rate 0-3 years
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   <year>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            effect switch                                                                  teacher salary                                                                                                              rate 4-5 years                                                     rate 5+ years
                                                                                                    infant                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     <year>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    inverse teacher impact
                                                                                                resident time                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  math                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               math proficiency                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5th-6th Grade STEM
   <Initial                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 proficiency                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         drop teacher college
People Under                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                drop 7th-8th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         teacher impact
  5 Men>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               math proficiency                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         <STEM teacher                 5th-6th Grade STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        drop 5th-6th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                STEM teacher resident                                                 STEM teacher resident                                                                                                                  effect switch>
                               total initial                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 math proficiency                                                                                                                                                         12th STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                STEM teacher resident                                                   time 4-5 years
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  math                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          math proficiency                                                                                                                                                                                      STEM teacher                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           time 5+ years
                                 infants                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       proficiency                                                                                                                            math proficiency drop                                                                                                                     drop 11th                                                                                                                                                         graduation total rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           time 0-3 years
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                drop 9th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           drop 12th                                                                                                                                                                                            variation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     <initial 5th-6th>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        10th
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              <initial 11th
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     <initial 12th
                                               birth rate                                                                             K-4th Grade STEM Interested                                                                                                                                                                                                                    7th-8th Grade STEM Interested
                                                                                      K-4th grade STEM                                                                                                                                            5th-6th Grade STEM Interested
   <percent public                                                                     interested entry                                                                                           4th STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               9th Grade STEM Interested                                                                                                               10th Grade STEM Interested                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Teacher College STEM Interested                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           STEM
     elementary                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 6th STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       11th Grade STEM Interested                                                                                                                                                                           12th STEM graduation                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                STEM
       school>                                                                               rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             8th STEM                                                                                                             9th STEM promotion                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    12th Grade STEM Interested                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               STEM Teachers
                                                                                                                                                                                                promotion rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       rate choosing STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Teachers 4-5                                                      Teachers 5+
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              promotion rate                                                                                                                promotion rate                                                                                                                rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0-3 Years                                                                                    STEM teachers
                                                                                                          <initial K-4th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           <initial 9th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       10th STEM promotion rate                                                                                                              11th STEM                                                                                                                       teacher                                                                                                                             STEM teacher                                                                                                                                                                            years                                                            Years
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      <initial 7th-8th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  initial STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                STEM teachers 0-3 years                                                    aging rate 4-5 years
                                                                                                             STEM>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  STEM>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  promotion rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    graduates hiring rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             STEM teacher retiring rate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         STEM>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             college                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        aging rate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        <initial 10th
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     <initial 5th-6th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     STEM>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       initial STEM teachers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   initial STEM
   <total births>                                                                                                                                                                                                       STEM>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 5+ years
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            5th-6th STEM                                            5th-6th STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 teacher college                                                                                                                                                                                teachers 0-3 years                                                     initial STEM teachers
                                                                      infant death
                                                                          rate                                                                                                                                                                death rate                                             drop-out rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              STEM death rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                4-5 years
                                                                                                                                 K-4th STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              teacher college                                                                       STEM Teachers
                                                                                                                                  death rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     7th-8th STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          STEM drop out rate                         STEM teacher                                   Not Hired
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   death rate                                             7th-8th                                                           9th STEM                                                                                                                                10th STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  graduates non-hiring
                         birth rate selector                                                                                                                                  K-4th STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       11th STEM                                                                                                                12th STEM                      12th STEM                                                                                                                                                                 rate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       drop-out rate                                                        death rate                                                                                                                               death rate
                                                                                                                                                                              drop-out rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           death rate                                                                                                               death rate                   drop-out rate
  constant birth                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   9thSTEM                                                                                                                                   10th STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              <percent going to                                                                                teacher college
      rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       5th-6th STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    drop-out rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             11th STEM                                                                                                                                                   industry>                                                                                     STEM drop out
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            drop-out rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            <percent necessary to close
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              drop-out rate percent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       drop-out rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  percent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     <5th-6th                                                                                                   7th-8th STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           STEM teacher gap in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  resident time>                                                                                              death rate percent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                teacher college                                                                      <college resident                   adjustment time>
        constant birth                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     7th-8th STEM
                                                                                 infant death                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 STEM death percent                                                                          time>
         rate switch                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             <7th-8th               drop-out rate percent
                                         <Death Percent                          rate percent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 resident time>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  teacher college eligible
                                         Under 5 Men>                                                                                                                                   K-4th STEM drop-out                                                  5th-6th STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    for unSTEM conversion
                                                                                                                                                      K-4th STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      <Death Percent
                                                                                                                 <Death Percent                                                                                                                            death rate percent
                                                                                                                                                    death rate percent                      rate percent                                                                                            5th-6th eligible for                                                                                                                                                                                         9th STEM death                                   9th STEM drop-out                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    15-19 Men>
                                                                                                                   5-9 Men>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           10th STEM death                                        10th STEM drop-out
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   unSTEM conversion                                                                                                                                                                                               rate percent                                       rate percent                                                                                                                                                                                                      11th STEM death                                                                                                         12th STEM death rate                12th STEM drop-out
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        rate percent                                             rate percent                                                             rate percent                                                                                                                 percent                                                                                                                                                                                               <college
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              11th STEM drop-out                                                                                        rate percent                                                             <Death Percent                                        <Death Percent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  rate percent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            resident time>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 15-19 Women>                                          20-24 Women>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  STEM Retirees
                                                      <Death Percent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       7th-8th eligible for                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       <Death Percent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          total STEM
                                                     Under 5 Women>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       unSTEM conversion                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            20-24 Men>
                                                                                                                 <Death Percent                                                                                                                       <Death Percent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            industry
                                                                                                                  5-9 Women>                                                                                                                           10-14 Men>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   <Death Percent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             industry college eligible
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     15-19 Men>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                for unSTEM conversion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    <Death Percent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    10-14 Women>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               industry college
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              <Death Percent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 STEM death percent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              10-14 Women>                                                               9th eligible for                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 12th eligible for                         12 STEM graduation                                                                                              industry college
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            unSTEM                                                                                                                                 10th eligible for                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                rate choosing STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  11th eligible for                                                                                                     unSTEM conversion                                                                                                                                           STEM drop out
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           conversion                                             <Death Percent                                                                 unSTEM conversion                                                                                                                                                          <11th resident time>                                                                                                          industry                                                                                                      percent                                   STEM Industry Not
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                unSTEM conversion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  15-19 Women>                                                                                                               <10th resident time>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Hried
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Percent 10-14                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          STEM industry
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Men>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             graduate non-hiring
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  <9th resident                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  <12th resident                                                                                                      industry college industry college                                        rate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     time>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 initial STEM industry                                                                                                                                                                                         initial STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    time>                                                                         initial industry college          STEM death rate STEM drop out rate                                                                    <percent STEM                                                                                                             initial STEM industry                           initial STEM industry                                   initial STEM industry                    industry professional                      initial STEM industry                              initial STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     STEM interested                                                                                                                     industry graduates                                                  professional 21-24                                       professional 25-29                              professional 30-34                                      professional 35-39                                                                                                               industry professional                                                           initial STEM industry                                  initial STEM industry
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             <Death Percent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  40-44                                professional 45-49
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               hired>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  50-54                                                                     professional 55-59                                     professional 60-64                            initial STEM industry
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             15-19 Women>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               professional 65-69
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                STEM industry                                    STEM industry                                                                                                                                    STEM industry                                                                                         STEM industry
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            <12th resident                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          STEM industry                                  STEM industry                                                                                    STEM industry                                                                                                 STEM industry
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             STEM industry                                    professional 25-29                               professional 30-34                                                                                                                               professional 45-49                                                                                       professional                                                                                             STEM industry
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                time>                                                                             Industry college STEM Interested                                                                                                                                                                            aging rate 21-24                                                                                                                    professional 35-39                             professional 40-44         aging rate 40-44                                                      professional 50-54                                                                                            professional 60-64
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           professional 21-24                                                            aging rate 25-29                              aging rate 30-34                                aging rate 35-39                                                                                                                                      aging rate 50-54               55-59                                                                                               professional 65-69
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          industry college STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             aging rate 45-49                                                                                     aging rate 55-59                                        aging rate 60-64                                                            STEM industry
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           interested hiring rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     professional
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               <Death Percent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        retirement rate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                15-19 Men>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        4 year                                           5 year                                                                                                                                                                                          <5 year                                                                                                        <5 year
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              initial 5th-6th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      death rate 21-24           resident time                                                                                                                                         <5 year                                            <5 year                                                             death rate 50-54              <5 year                                                                                                      <5 year
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    death rate 25-29           resident time                                  <5 year                                                                                                                                          resident time>                                                                      death rate 55-59           resident time>                                      resident time>            death rate 65-69
                                                                                                                                          initial K-4th                                                                                                          unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          initial 10th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   resident time>                                     resident time>                                                                                    resident time>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  initial 7th-8th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   math proficiency                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     death rate 30-34 resident time>
                                                                                                                                            unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          drop industry college                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     death rate 35-39                             death rate 40-44                                                                                                                                                                                                  death rate 60-64                                                                     <5 year
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              death rate 45-49
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       initial 9th unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            initial 11th                                                                                                                 initial 12th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              resident time>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      unSTEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 <college resident
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           <constant                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               unSTEM
                                                                                                                            <constant                                                                                                                                              2 years                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        time>                                                                                                                                                                                                   death percent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           death percent 65-69
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           birth rate>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  industry college                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              death percent 30-34                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          death percent
                                                                                                                            birth rate>                          5 years                                                                                                                                                                                                          <constant                            <2 years>                                                                                                                1 years                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              death percent 21-24                                      25-29                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          death percent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               <1 years>                                                                                                                       <1 years>                                                                                                                                                                                                                              unSTEM conversion                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                55-59                                              death percent 60-64
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  birth rate>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    50-54
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  <constant                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       death percent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    <constant                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        <1 years>                                             initial industry college
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  birth rate>                                                                                                                       birth rate>                                                                                                                                  <constant                                                                                                                <constant                                                                                                                                                                  <industry college                                                                                             STEM industry desired                                                                                                                                                                                                     35-39                                      death percent 40-44
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             STEM uninterested                                                                                                                                          demand growth                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    death percent 45-49
                                                                                                                                                                               percent public                    <initial 5th-6th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                birth rate>                                                                                                              birth rate>                                                                                                                                                              eligible for unSTEM
                                                                                                    <math                                                                                                              math                                                                        percent public                              initial 7th-8th math                                                                                                                                                                                                     percent public                           initial 10th                                                                               percent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         rate
                                                                                                                                                                                elementary                                                                      initial 5th-6th                                                                                                                                                                                           initial 9th math                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            initial 12th                                                                                                                                                                                      conversion>
                                                                                                 unproficiency                                  initial K-4th                                                    unproficiency>                                                                       5th-6th                                     unproficiency                                                                        percent public                                                                             initial 9th                                9th                                     math                                          initial 10th                           public 10th                                                                                                                          percent public                                                                                                             percent
                                                                                                                                                                                   school                                                                                                                                                                                                             initial 7th-8th                                                      unproficiency                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               initial 11th math                                                                                                                  math                                                                          public 12th                                                                                                                                                              STEM industry
                                                                                                    K-4th>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                7th-8th                                                                                                                                                               unproficiency                                                                                                                                                                                                                      11th                                                                              initial 12th
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         unproficiency                                         initial 11th                                                          unproficiency                                                                                                                                                      Industry college STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         <constant birth                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         demand growth
                                                                                                                    <constant birth                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Uninterested                           industry college STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          rate switch>                         initial 5th-6th                                                                        <constant birth
                                                                                                                     rate switch>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        initial 10th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               uninterested graduation
                                                                                                                                                           initial K-4th                                                                                                       lookup values                                                                           rate switch>                                  initial 7th-8th                                                                 <constant birth                               initial 9th lookup                                                                    <constant birth                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 initial 12th                                                                                                                                         rate                                                                                                                                                                                                  <total STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      rate switch>                                                                                                                                                                     lookup values                                                                                                                          initial 11th lookup                                                          <constant birth                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         <total STEM teachers
                                                                                                                                                          lookup values                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              lookup values                                                                                                                       values                                                                           rate switch>                                                                                                                            <constant birth                                                                                                                                                      lookup values                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 industry>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     values                                                                 rate switch>                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             <gap desired STEM                    desired>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   rate switch>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     teachers vs actual>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              gap desired STEM
                                                                                                                                          initial K-4th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       initial 7th-8th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           percent gap desired                   industry vs actual
                                                                                                                                             STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  STEM                                                                                                                   initial 9th STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           industry college STEM                                                                                                                                                               STEM industry vs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             initial 5th-6th                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               initial 10th STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 initial 12th STEM                                                                                                                                     industry college STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   initial 11th STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 uninterested death rate                                                                                                                                                                  actual
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  STEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              uninterested drop out

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          desired time to close
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           STEM industry gap

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     <5 halving times>                                                             percent of 12th grade STEM                          <year>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   graduates needed to become
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   industry college                                  industry college                                                                                                                                                                                                                  industry to close gap
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 unSTEM death rate                                unSTEM drop out rate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       percent                                           percent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         adjustment time

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         STEM industry                                                                                      <12th STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     industry college eligible                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          graduation total rate>
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      for STEM conversion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                percent necessary to close

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  STEM industry gap in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     adjustment time                                               percent STEM

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 industry graduates
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   lookup table necessary STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         <college resident                                                                                                                                                                                      industry professional salary to close
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              time>                                                                                                                                                                                              STEM industry gap in adjustment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 <STEM teacher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                time                                  STEM industry                                                 salary>

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         percent STEM teacher                       lookup table STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        salary of STEM industry                      industry vs STEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       teacher salaires

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               11/24/2011                                                                                                                                                   Page 11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     percent going to
Recent Studies Completed
Using the Model
   Gender differences in STEM interest
   Disadvantaged Students and STEM interest
   Retention of STEM interest in college

         The model allows us to explore outcomes to various scenarios

                                                                  11/24/2011   Page 12
Modeling Higher Education

        Aaron Schram

                        11/24/2011   Page 13
Project Overview and Approach
    Project Overview
     – Limit study to industry bound STEM graduates
     – Include the College Dynamics that result in STEM Attrition
     – Analyze the concepts and solutions
     – Examine potential solutions

    Project Approach
     – Research the current College STEM attrition factors and solutions
     – Capture current College STEM dynamics in the model
     – Add the proposed solutions and examine the STEM graduation impact
     – Assess the realism, feasibility, and cost impact of each proposed

   Accurate and realistic solutions were obtained by only modeling attrition
  factors and solutions supported by quantitative data found in the literature.
                                                                     11/24/2011   Page 14
Research Findings
    STEM college attrition (current state)
     – 62% of STEM interested students leave STEM during college -
       Seymour and Hewitt (1997)
     – 38% graduate with a STEM degree
     – 55% of students intending to major in STEM graduate with “any” degree
       - NSF (2002)
    Identified Attrition Factors
     – Psychological – Poorly formed social support networks – Daemphle
     – *Academic
     – *Financial

     * Not modeled

     Cold teaching style, lack of a social support structure, and higher student
                      cost are key factors in College attrition.
                                                                        11/24/2011   Page 15
Social Support Networks
and Academic Performance

   Background                                                                           3
                                                                                                                                                  19                        16
                                                                                         4    23

    – Research has shown that Centralized Social Networks                                5
                                                                                         7         2

      are strongly correlated with higher GPAs in learning                               8
                                                                                                                               9                  20                              15                               11
      communities.*                                                                                                                                                              21
                                                                                                                                             12                        10                            17

   Hypothesis
    – “Centralized” Social Networks take longer to form                                                                                                                                   14

      naturally in STEM University communities due to the                                                                                                                                                          24

      new living arrangements, cold teaching style, and lack
      of classroom interaction.                                                                                                                                             13

                                                                                        Mean GPA = 2.59, Clustering Coeff. = 11.29
   Solutions – Bridge Programs and Cohort Programs                                                                  22
                                                                                                                                        13                                  24

    – Improve network centralization and reduce
                                                                                                           14                                                     3

      development time

    – Provide students the resources required for success
                                                                                                                                                                  18                                           1

                                                                                                                                   21                                                                              4

    – Have relatively low cost of implementation (Cohort).                                                            12
                                                                                                                                                   7                         6



*The Social Networks of College Students in Learning Communities                                                                                             19

Gale Stuart, Doctoral Candidate, UCLA Graduate School of Education & Information Studies, 2007 Mean GPA = 3.05, Clustering Coeff. = 34.63
                                                               USE SUMMER BRIDGE
    Social     Support Network formation is correlated with higher GPA, and higher
                                                            PROGRAM AND RETENTION
                                                             STRATEGIES TO ADDRESS
                       GPA strongly correlated with STEM retention.
                                                           COLLEGE DYNAMICS ISSUES 16
                                                                           11/24/2011 Page
Social Dynamics
                                                                              Cohort Program
                                                                               – Facilitates social and academic support
                                                                                 structure which improves GPA
                                                                               – Includes mentoring, tutoring, and
                                                                                 seminar programs
Bridge Program
                        + +
                                                                               – Higher student quality will encourage
                  College Bound             Attrition
                   High School               Rate                                more universities to implement Cohort
                 Graduates STEM                                                  Programs
                                                            +     +           Summer Bridge Program
   STEM                            + Social
                                                                               – Reduces STEM attrition in college bound
  Declared   +                      Network
                                  + Clustering
                                                                                 STEM interested high school graduates
                 +    STEM             +                                       – Prepares students for college
                                                                       +       – Begins building the social and academic
                                     Cohort                     Academic         student support structure earlier and
                                    Program                      Quality
                                                            +                    faster.
                                                                               – Lower attrition encourages more
                                                                                 universities to implement Bridge

        Cohort and Bridge Programs address the psychological and academic
                    attrition factors which reduce STEM attrition
                                                                                                          11/24/2011   Page 17
College Stock and Flow Diagram

12th Grade                                                      Death Rate
   STEM                                                                                                                   STEM Graduates to Industry

                             Continuing                  Continuing                  Continuing                  Continuing                   Continuing
                              Students                    Students                    Students                    Students                     Students
              STEM Year 1                 STEM Year 2                 STEM Year 3                 STEM Year 4                  STEM Year 5                  STEM Year 6

                                                                                                                                         STEM                   STEM Migration
                                                                                                                                        Migration                  Year 6
                     STEM Migration               STEM Migration             STEM Migration              STEM Migration                  Year 5
                        Year 1                       Year 2                                                 Year 4
                                                                                Year 3

                             Continuing                  Continuing                  Continuing                   Continuing                   Continuing
                              Students                    Students                    Students                     Students                     Students
              nonSTEM Year                nonSTEM Year                nonSTEM Year                nonSTEM Year                 nonSTEM Year                 nonSTEM Year
                    1                           2                           3                           4                            5                            6

                        non STEM                  non STEM                   non STEM                      non STEM                     non STEM                    non STEM
                        migration                 migration                  migration                     Graduates                    Graduates                   Graduates

          Attrition factors, rates, and solutions characterized in the college portion of the
                                    U.S. Educational System Model.
                                                                                                                                                             11/24/2011    Page 18
Simulation Results

              STEM Graduate Increase Percentage with Bridge and
                      Cohort Program Implementation
                                                          Scenario 1 assumes
                                                    instantaneous and fully effective
   100%                                                     implementation.
                                                       Scenario 2 assumes a multi-
   20%                                                year ramped implementation.



































                    Baseline           Scenario 1                   Scenario 2

     Instantaneous implementation increases STEM graduates 72% by 2015
    A more feasible ramped implementation provides a 40% increase by 2015
                                                                                 11/24/2011   Page 19
Demonstration of the Model

         Dana Larson

                         11/24/2011   Page 20
Analysis Results
(One Solution at a Time)

                     Solution      Percent Increase
                                      (by 2015)
               Cohort Program             69%

               Bridge Program             2%

  Cohort Programs have the greatest impact on STEM Graduates (69%),
               with a relatively low implementation cost

                                                             11/24/2011   Page 21
Conclusions and Recommendations
   The US Educational System Model using System Dynamics
    is an effective tool for STEM education analysis
   The model output indicates that a ramped, nationwide
    implementation of cohort and bridge programs will increase
    STEM graduation by 40% in 2015
    – Solutions are relatively inexpensive and intuitively feasible.
   Analysis of the model output suggests that the
    recommended College Dynamics solutions should be
    implemented in concert with solutions across the entire
    educational system

                System dynamics modeling is an effective tool
              for STEM education policy effectiveness analysis.
                                                                       11/24/2011   Page 22
Open Source Model
     George Blaha

                    11/24/2011   Page 23
Open Source Model Management

   Model configuration management is required to keep users
    and developers in sync

   The Open Source Software movement has given rise to a
    number of tools and processes for organizing large,
    distributed networks of developers

   A process centered around the GForge web-based project
    management tool was successfully used to organize four
    independent Raytheon development teams

   This process will be transitioned to serve the greater model

                                                          11/24/2011   Page 24
Open Source Process Flow
              Model User/Developer Community                                        1 Community downloads official
                                                                                      versions of model files from
                                                                                      web site

                                                                                    2 Developers make improvements
                                                                                      and submit change requests to
  B               A                                             2                   3 Community and CCB evaluate and
                                              C                     3                 comment on change requests

                                                                                    4 Configuration Control Board
                                                                                      approves or rejects change
          Bug Report                                          Change Request
           Description     Model Files        Documentation
 Forums                                                        Description          5 Administrator commits
           Comments      Baseline / History      Library                              approved change to official
                                                               Comments               version history

                                                                                    A Model bugs are discovered,
GForge                                                                                reported, and commented upon

                                                                                    B Community uses Forums for
                                                                    3                 interactive discussion
                                                                    4               C Reference material is stored in
                                                                                      document library

                         Administrator                Configuration Control Board

                                                                                                   11/24/2011   Page 25
Next Steps

  Chris Roe

              11/24/2011   Page 26
Vision for the Future

   A virtual community of experts, researchers, policy makers
    and educators organized using the principles of systems
    engineering around a common model that provides a means
    of comparing and assessing ideas to find the best practices
    and most effective means of improving student competencies
    and national competitiveness.

                                                       11/24/2011   Page 27
Major Challenges

   Funding and capacity building
   Developing/creating a model user community
    – Creating a “cultural shift” in practice among researchers and policy
      makers to embrace systems dynamics modeling, open collaboration
      and open source use
    – Will require training and new ways of discovery and sharing information

                                                                     11/24/2011   Page 28
Next Steps in Advancing the STEM
Modeling Project

   Build capacity to launch, coordinate and sustain activities
    – Build management team to coordinate and integrate activities
    – Launch STEM Research and Modeling Network
   Validate and refine existing prototype model
   Develop modeling research agenda
   Further model development (e.g. graduate education)
   Link to other complementary modeling efforts
   Transition the model to open source use

                                                                     11/24/2011   Page 29
Building a STEM Modeling Community
   The STEM Modeling Management Partnership (SMMP)
    – BHEF – Team Coordinator
    – Ohio State – Model Administrator
    – Raytheon – Web Site Sponsor and Technical Advisor

   The Configuration Control Board (CCB)
    – Representatives from SMMP and STEM Research and Modeling Network
     (about 7 total members)

   The STEM Research and Modeling Network (SRMN)
    – Researchers
         Educational Researchers, Economists, Data Organizations
    – Model Developers and Users
         University Research Groups
         Policy Makers (e.g., Governors, State and Federal Legislators & Staff)
         State Education Offices, Higher Ed Coordinating Boards, School Districts
         Federal Agencies (Dept. of Education, NSF, DOE, DOD, DHS, Labor, etc.)

                                                                                     11/24/2011   Page 30
Building a STEM Modeling Community

                                     11/24/2011   Page 31
Building a Modeling Community (cont.)

   Launch STEM Research and Modeling Network
    – Periodic Network Meetings to coordinate/advance work
    – Training workshops on use of the model
         Tracks for educators, researchers, policymakers
    – Network members vet and prioritize future research agenda
    – Annual STEM Modeling Research Conference
         Results from the modeling research activities
         Invited presentations on selected research topics
    – Grants or awards to encourage participation
    – Publish STEM research & modeling papers/e-journal

                                                                  11/24/2011   Page 32
Higher Education References
 1.    California Postsecondary Education Committee “Student Access, Institutional Capacity, and Public Higher Education Demand
       2002-2013”, June 2004 Commission Report 04-07.
 2.    Carey, K. (2004) A Matter of Degrees: Improving Graduation Rates in Four-Year Colleges and Universities. A Report by the
       Education Trust.
 3.    Chubin, D, (2002) Who is Doing Science – and Who Will? AAAS Science and Technology Policy Yearbook.
 4.    Daempfle, Peter A. PhD (2002). An Analysis of the High Attrition rates Among First Year College Science, Math, and
       Engineering Majors.
 5.    Gilmer , T. Carter (2007). An Understanding of the Improved Grades, Retention, and Graduation Rates of STEM Majors at the
       Academic Investment in Math and Science (AIMS) Program of Bowling Green State University (BGSU). .
 6.    Gilmer, T. Carter (2007). Marathon Pipeline, LLC. & BGSU AIMS.
 7.    Leonard, T. (2006). The Top 10 Unique Features and Benefits of the Virtual Classroom.
 8.    Millett, Catherine M. (2005). Defining the STEM Landscape: The Pre-College and First Year Picture. ETS.
 9.    NSF RFPs and reports related to the Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics Talent Expansion Program (STEP)
 10.   NSF Grant Research Project at the University of Pittsburgh. Engineering Attrition: Student Characteristics and Educational
 11.   Office of Institutional Research (2004). Retention and Graduation Rates for Majors in Science. Technology, Engineering, and
       Mathematics (STEM).
 12.   Prairie View University Web Site:
 13.   Saviz, C., Fernandez, A., Golanbari, M., Khoie, R. and Watson, K. (2006). A Program to Improve Learning and Retention of
       First Year Engineering Students. American Society for Engineering Education 2006 Conference. 2006-1569
 14.   Stuart, G. (2007). Social Networks of College Students in Learning Communities.
 15.   System Dynamics Society. Web site:
 16.   University of Michigan Dearborn Co-Operative Education Program description with professional endorsement. Web site:'scoop.html#academ
 17.   National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) (2002). Source Population data: National Center for Education Statistics.
       Digest Education Statistics.
 18.   U.S. Department of Education Web Site:
 19.   Virginia Tech College of Engineering. Web site:
 20.   Wells, B. (2007). Raytheon’s Systems Engineering Approach to Improving the US Education System. Slide 13.

                                                                                                                11/24/2011   Page 33

         11/24/2011   Page 34
College Dynamics Model Input
              Stock- accumulates                                       initial STEM                                                 initial STEM
                   or depletes                                       interested year 1                                            interested year 2

                     entities                                           industry college
                                                                        STEM Interested
                                                                             year 1                        STEM interested year
                                                                                                             1 promotion rate

                      Lookup Table College
   Auxiliary           Dynamics Migration

                                                                                     year 1 unSTEM
  Modify Flows                                                                       conversion rate
                             <College rate
                               factor>                                                   Migration rate
                                                                                           based on
                                                                                            college           <STEM Cost Drop out
                                                        -                                                       rate calculation>
                                                   College Dynamic
                                                                                          dynamics              Flow- inputs or
                                                                                                                  outputs from
   % Cohort Program                                                                                                 a stock
                                  Mean GPA
                                                                                                                                    Lookup Table Year
                              +                                                                                                        2 Migration

                                                                                                industry college year 1
                                                                                               STEM promotion fraction

                                   Loookup Table
                                    Mean GPA
   Stocks, Flows, and Auxiliary Variables are the basic building blocks in
                       System Dynamics modeling
                                                                                                                                  11/24/2011          Page 35
First Year Migration Equation
    STEM first year
    migration equation

                                                  Variables used in
                                                      the equation

              Values easily modified in the equation editor
                                                                      11/24/2011   Page 36
College Dynamics Model Output

 Incoming college


                    Model is calibrated and at equilibrium
                                                             11/24/2011   Page 37
Scenario 1 Model Demo
                              STEM Industry College Graduates

                                                                               100% Cohort
             325,000                                                             University



                   2008     2010    2012    2014    2016 2018    2020   2022    2024
                                                   Time (year)
            STEM Industry College Graduates : scenario1
            STEM Industry College Graduates : baseline

                                        Best case scenario
                                                                                   11/24/2011   Page 38
Scenario 2 Model Demo

                            STEM Industry College Graduates



                 2008     2010    2012    2014    2016 2018    2020   2022   2024
                                                 Time (year)
          STEM Industry College Graduates : scenario2
          STEM Industry College Graduates : scenario1
          STEM Industry College Graduates : baseline
                     A ramped implementation is a more realistic scenario
                                                                                    11/24/2011   Page 39

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