Racing FlowTM Incorporated
www.racingflow.com
Overview & Tutorial
May 25, 2009
Racing FlowTM Mission Statement
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Foremost, we believe in “evidence based” handicapping
For example, player often believe things like:
first time starters breaking from the rail are a bad bet
second time Lasix users are a good bet, or
runners dropping from MSW to the MdClm level are taking the biggest
drop in the game
We’ve have similar beliefs, but we will only act upon them once we’ve seen
empirical evidence that they are correct
We don’t consider having had luck with a particular angle as “evidence”
Racing FlowTM Mission Statement
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Racing FlowTM figures are designed to help serious handicappers do better:
If they are losing, our goal is to help them the break even
If they are breaking even, our goal is to help them win
If they are winning, our goal is to help them win more
We do this by supplying three measures not generally available to the
handicapping public: BIAS, FLOW and BL12
Each measure helps determine whether a particular race favored horses on
or near the lead versus closers
Our purpose is profit
Our method is the proper use of BIAS, FLOW and BL12
Our outcome Is a handicapper with an improved return on investment
Some Important Racing FlowTM Terminology
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You’ve already seen the names of our measures:
BIAS
FLOW
BL12
Before we explain them, we would like you to learn two more RacingFlowTM
terms
ZIP
describes a race that is tough for speed horses and favorable to closers
PLOD
describes a race that is tough for closers and favorable to speed
Please rest assured that we won’t be introducing any new words
Racing FlowTM Measures
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BIAS
Most track bias guys consider whether inside or outside paths are best
We give this no consideration because:
a runner’s distance from the rail often cannot be objectively measured
the rail may be bad on the backstretch and good at the 1/8 pole
speed biases and rail biases typically occur at the same time
outside biases and closer biases typically occur at the same time
Our BIAS measure tells you whether a racing surface favored speed versus
closers on a particular day
BIAS = 0 indicates no bias
A large negative BIAS (e.g., -200) indicates a speed bias
A large positive BIAS (e.g., +200) indicates a closer bias
Racing FlowTM Measures
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Using BIAS
A speedster running on a BIAS +100 is termed vs. closer bias
A closer running on a BIAS > +100 is termed with closer bias
A closer running on a BIAS +100 is termed vs. ZIP
a closer running in a race with a FLOW > +100 is termed with ZIP
a closer running in a race with a FLOW < -100 is termed vs. PLOD
The performances of with ZIP and with PLOD runners are downgraded
The performances of vs. ZIP and vs. PLOD runners are upgraded
Racing FlowTM Measures
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BL12
BL12 is simply the number of lengths the race winner was behind the leader
after 1/4 mile and after 1/2 mile. Thus, it provides a summary of how much
ground the winner made up in the later stages of the race.
Here are some examples of BL12:
If a closer was 8 off after ¼ mile and 6 off after ½ mile, the BL12 is 14
If a stalker was 1.5 lengths off after both ¼ and ½ miles, the BL12 is 3
any gate to wire winner receives a BL12 of 0
Racing FlowTM Assesses Races, Not Runners
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If a horse runs 22 flat every time he breaks from the gate, most pace figure
guys will give him about the same early pace figure each time
With Racing FlowTM, 22 flat is quick in a race run in 1:14, but slow in a race
run in 1:08
If the Beyer is 90, or the Ragozin is +3, that tells you about the quality of
effort between gate and wire (for example, an excellent effort in a Alw 1x)
Racing FlowTM figures allow you to assess whether an individual runner
achieved the 90 Beyer the easy way (with BIAS or FLOW) or the hard way
(vs. BIAS or FLOW)
We believe the “easy way versus hard way” issue is the most overlooked
aspect of the game, leading to important overlays and underlays
The Biggest Racing FlowTM Upgrades
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For a speed horse, the biggest upgrade would be a series of races with:
big positive BIAS figures
big positive FLOW figures, and
big BL12s
The combination of these factors points out a runner that has raced better
than most handicappers perceive
For a closer, the biggest upgrade would be a series of races with:
Big negative BIAS figures
Big negative FLOW figures
Low BL12s
Again, this combination points out a runner that has raced better than most
handicappers perceive
The Biggest Racing FlowTM Downgrades
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Runners with the opposite patterns are downgraded
The biggest speed horse downgrades are those exiting races with:
Big negative BIAS figures
Big negative FLOW figures
Low BL12s
The biggest closing horse downgrades are those exiting races with:
big positive BIAS figures
big positive FLOW figures, and
big BL12s
Racing FlowTM Figure Patterns to look for:
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There is no magic formula for using these figures, just as there is no formula
for applying speed figures to your betting decisions.
Racing FlowTM figures can be an important part of you handicapping, but
you still must handicap to be successful. For example, Guadalcanal came
into the 2008 Belmont Stakes with several nice vs. PLOD efforts. But he
was still a maiden in the Belmont! He wasn’t that much an upgrade!
Having said that, there several patterns we look for, including:
2+ vs. PLOD and/or speed BIAS efforts
2+ vs. ZIP and/or closer BIAS efforts
vs. PLOD and/or speed BIAS effort following a layoff
vs. PLOD and/or speed BIAS winner of his last
vs. ZIP and/or closer BIAS effort by a runner turning back in distance
2+ vs. PLOD and/or speed BIAS efforts
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These are the last three running lines for So Glitzy when she went to post
at Saratoga in a 2x allowance at 9 furlongs on 7/24/2008
The recent FLOW and BIAS figures gave her little chance on 4/18, 4/25
or 6/26
In her Saratoga effort, she returned $38
Date/Level Surf/Dist 1st Call 2nd Call Finish Bias Flow
6/26 2x T - 8.5 5th by 4.5 6th by 5.5 5th by 3.5 0 -150
4/25 Stakes D - 9.0 4th by 4.0 4th by 2.5 4th by 14.8 -119 -148
4/18 2x D – 8.0 4th by 1.5 5th by 4.5 5th by 5.5 -96 -149
2+ vs. ZIP and/or closer BIAS efforts
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These are the last two running lines for No Limit Poker when the gelding
went to post in a maiden claimer at SA on January 25, 2009
The 6/7 and 7/11 FLOW and BIAS figures indicate these were tough
races for speed
His next effort resulted in a $10.60 win mutual after a long but successful
stretch duel
Date/Level Surf/Dist 1st Call 2nd Call Finish Bias Flow
7/11 Mdn 25k D - 5.5 2nd by 1.5 3rd by 1.0 3rd by 3.4 +74 +112
6/7 Mdn 25k D – 6.5 2nd by 0.5 4th by 2.0 10th by 8.0 +180 +97
vs. PLOD and/or speed BIAS effort following a layoff
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A runner who begins a new form cycle vs. PLOD often has his improved
physical condition hidden from public view
An excellent example is Pays to Dream, who already had several nice
Racing FlowTM figures on his resume, including 3 vs. PLOD wins
What sealed the deal was his vs. PLOD try on 4/27
The runner paid $40 as the decisive winner of the Dixie Stakes on the 2008
Preakness card.
Date/Level Surf/Dist 1st Call 2nd Call Finish Bias Flow
4/27 G3 Stakes T - 8.5 5th by 3.5 4th by 3.0 7th by 5.5 0 -156
vs. PLOD and/or speed BIAS winner of his last
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Runners that are able to rally to win despite vs. PLOD conditions are an
excellent bet to repeat.
This was the most recent running line for CordilIeran Ice when she
appeared at the 2x level on the Aqueduct lawn on 11/2/2008.
She returned $19.80 in her repeat win
Date/Level Surf/Dist 1st Call 2nd Call Finish Bias Flow
10/13 NYB 1x T - 8.5 9th by 5.3 8th by 5.0 1st by 0.5 0 -129
vs. ZIP or closer BIAS, now turning back in distance
www.racingflow.com
Heavenly n’ Free seemed destined to become a lifetime maiden
When stretched out to two turns at Del Mar, it was her 8th consecutive
defeat
After that vs. ZIP effort, she returned to the proper distance and won by 4
lengths, paying $10.
Here’s the running line of the prior race:
Date/Level Surf/Dist 1st Call 2nd Call Finish Bias Flow
8/25 Mdn 25k D - 8.5 3rd by 0.2 2nd by 1.0 10th by 18.0 +4 +235
Racing FlowTM Incorporated
www.racingflow.com
Frequently Asked Questions
How is FLOW calculated?
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We’ve developed statistical models using between 8 & 17 variables to
predict the degree of closing that occurs at each track, surface and distance
Models were developed using a database of nearly 40,000 races, and are
refined each week to predict how much closing would be expected in the
about 200 races run on Racing FlowTM circuits
Model results are shared with subscribers as a FLOW figure, which typically
ranges between -200 and +200, representing two standard deviation below
and above the track/ surface/distance average
Some Racing FlowTM trivia:
The most speed favoring FLOW thus far detected (-445) was a TP mile with a
27.1 quarter and a 52.6 half
The most closer favoring FLOW thus far detected (+412) was a GP 6f sprint with
a 20.9 quarter. The field needed another 50.2 seconds to reach the wire
How is BIAS calculated?
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On a race by-race basis, FLOW figures predict the degree of closing that
would be expected on an unbiased track
If 6+ races were run in one day on the same surface, we compare model-
predicted and actual degrees of closing to determine whether a particular
surface, on a particular day, has favored speed versus closers
Model results are shared with subscribers as a BIAS figure, which typically
ranges between -200 and +200, representing two standard deviation below
and above the track/surface average
More Racing FlowTM trivia:
The most speed biased surface thus far detected was at CD on 6/18/2006 (-229)
The most closer biased surface thus far detected was at TP on 1/08/09 (+302)
Why is BL12 important?
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Because you will never again need to refer back to a chart to answer the
crucial question: Where did the winner come from?
Why is this crucial? Consider:
A runner who battles on the front end and eventually finishes 2nd to
another speed horse is not a particularly good bet next time out
A runner who battles on the front end and eventually finishes 2nd to a
deep closer is a good bet next time out
A runner who battles on the front end in a race with BIAS and/or FLOW
figures indicating the race favored closers, and eventually finishes 2nd to
a deep closer, is a great bet next time out
Why do your figures change slightly over time?
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FLOW ratings tell you how far an individual race was from normal
By definition, normal (FLOW = 0) is the average of all races at this track,
surface and distance since we began data collection
As we add more races to the database the average changes, so we
recalculate every race run at each track, surface and distance
Changes in FLOW figures are almost always negligible
FLOW figures of +187 and +192 mean essentially the same thing, as do
Beyer figures of 89 and 90
How big should a figure be before I use it?
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Some players use a plus or minus 100 limit, others use plus or minus 150 or
even plus or minus 200
The lower your limit, the more action. The higher the limit, the more certain
you can be the runner was truly advantaged or disadvantaged
Some handicappers prefer to look for horses that raced vs. some degree of
flow in multiple races.
An example would be a closer who has raced versus -108, -103, -172, -
169, -115 and -105 FLOWs in his last six starts
A strict +/-150 cutoff may cause you to miss this one, but many FLOW
players would considering him an excellent play if a stronger pace is
expected today
What’s Included in the Racing FlowTM Database?
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Currently Available circuits are:
NYRA Aqueduct, Belmont & Saratoga
Kentucky Keeneland, Churchill Downs, Ellis Park & Turfway
So California Hollywood, DelMar & Santa Anita
So Florida Gulfstream & Calder
We expect to have available in 2009:
Arlington Park, Woodbine & Oaklawn
On the Drawing Board are:
Hawthorne & Fairplex
Why are Racing FlowTM Measures sometimes missing?
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We are unable to provide figures for about 1% of races. Reasons include:
failed or suspect fractional times
visibility problems (fog, snow)
unusual race distances
Another 1% of figures are annotated with the symbol “?”
A “?” means our statistical model is not as strong as we desire, usually
due to a small size of races
We issue a figure, but let you know we have some questions with it
Lastly, we will not issue a BIAS figure unless 6+ races were run on the
surface during the card. In these cases, BIAS is set equal to 0
What are these Formulator Web Notations?
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Besides BIAS, BL12 and FLOW, you will sometimes see these symbols:
VZW
vs. ZIP winner
The winner wired despite setting fast fractions
VPW
Vs. PLOD winner
The winner closed from BL12=10.0 or more despite slow fractions
Asterisks
* the FLOW rating was in the 150-199 range
** the FLOW rating was in the 200-249 range
*** the FLOW rating was above 250
How often are racing surfaces biased?
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Not very often.
The figure below show the distribution of BIAS figures issued
for four major tracks, on a 7-point scale
100%
extreme cl bias
80%
important cl bias
modest cl bias
60%
no bias
40% modest spd bias
important spd bias
20%
extreme spd bias
0%
CD Aqu Hol GP
Do some horses wire despite setting a ZIP?
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Sure, but it’s not easy. The graphic shows the probability of a wire-to-wire
victory in dirt/synthetic route races, by FLOW figure:
40%
35%
30%
Pct W-to-W
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250
Do some horses close despite being behind a PLOD?
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That’s even tougher. The graphic shows the probability of a winner having
a BL12 of 10+ in dirt/synthetic route races, by FLOW figure:
80%
70%
60%
Pct Deep Closer
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250
Can FLOW figures be added and subtracted?
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Not meaningfully. BIAS and FLOW figures reflect standard deviations
from the mean. A FLOW of -300 (-3 on the graph) says the race favored
speed at the 0.1% level. A +250 FLOW (2.5 on the graph) favored
closers at the 0.6% level.
What about when FLOW and BIAS counterbalance?
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Handicappers handle the situation differently:
Some assume the race was neutral
Some give more weight to the BIAS figure
Some give more weight to the FLOW figure
Using the graphic on the prior slide, we suggest you consider how far the
BIAS and FLOW figures are from normal
As an example, we interpret a BIAS -100, FLOW +200 race as moderately
favoring closers
Remember that you can pass a race. Keep looking, and you’ll find a runner
with less conflicting information soon.
Can you use BIAS to compare different tracks?
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No!
Any handicapper who has played at both venues knows that more closing
occurs on the Del Mar synthetic than the Gulfstream dirt.
But BIAS figures compare one day’s card with all other cards on this track’s
surface.
A normal day at Gulfstream receives a BIAS = 0, and a normal day at
DelMar received a BIAS = 0.
How much closing is normal?
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Here are the average BL12s for dirt/synthetic sprints. It comes as no
surprise that the most closing occurs on synthetics
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
Dot Aqu Bel Sar * Kee CD ElP TP * GP Crc * Hol Dmr SA
How much closing is normal?
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Here are the average BL12s for dirt/synthetic routes:
8
7.5
7
6.5
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
Dot Aqu Bel Sar * Kee CD ElP TP * GP Crc * Hol Dmr SA
How much closing is normal?
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Here are the average BL12s for turf sprints:
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
Dot Aqu Bel Sar * Kee CD ElP TP * GP Crc * Hol Dmr SA
How much closing is normal?
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Here are the mean BL12s for turf routes:
8.5
8
7.5
7
6.5
6
Dot Aqu Bel Sar * Kee CD ElP TP * GP Crc * Hol Dmr SA
How can I have additional questions answered?
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Questions about the Racing FlowTM database and statistical
models should be sent to jake@racingflow.com
Questions about applying Racing FlowTM data to handicapping
decisions should be sent to phil@racingflow.com
You can order Racing FlowTM products by contacting
products@racingflow.com
Best of Racing Luck,
The Plod Boys