Engineer and the Environment A Rebuttal: Challenges of Technology

							ENGINEERING AND THE ENVIRONMENT

                     A REBUTTAL:
      CHALLENGES OF TECHNOLOGY



                      October 10th, 2008
Brought to you by:
The School of Resource and
Environmental Management
(REM)

   Alex Hall (physical geographer)
   Brad Griffin (geological engineer)
   Adam Batty (fisheries biologist)
   Athena Ogden (philosophy of science)
   Andres Araujo (oceans scientist)
   Anna Gerrard (ecologist and GIS)
   Anna Usborne (social scientist)
What is REM?
The School of Resource and Environmental
Management focuses on the institutional, social,
economic and public policy aspects of planning
and management of natural resources. The
emphasis is not simply to identify and describe
resource and environmental problems, but to
better understand causes and design
acceptable solutions.
Overview for Today
   Last Lecture
    o No population problem and food is more plentiful now

    o Resource scarcity is not a concern

    o Environmental problems can be solved by technology

    o If we can’t solve our problems, we can always just leave
      Earth

   A “techno-optimist” gamble
    o Why solutions are so challenging and the risks are so great
    o Why our solutions often create more problems
    o Why we should be more cautious in the future


   How engineers can help save the world
EVERYTHING IS NOT OKAY
Evidence of Impact
Techno-Optimists
"We now have in our hands
– really, in our libraries – the
technology to feed, clothe,
and supply energy to an
ever-growing population for
the next seven billion years."



                                   Julian Lincoln Simon (1932-1998)
Increasing Complexity
              Human           Refrigerators,
            Convenience      Air Conditioning



                                            Ozone
                  Climate Change
                                           Depletion


                                         Replace CFCs
                     Carbon
                                         with HFCs and
                  Sequestration?
                                         reduce usage



                   Catastrophic       Increasing
 Local impacts?
                    Failures?            risk?
Precautionary Principle
   Method to approach complex problems
    with potentially severe consequences

   Always have some element of risk
    present
     ○ Risk = Probability * Magnitude of Outcome



   Cannot focus solely on one aspect of
    problem (e.g., economic, biophysical,
    social, or technological)
What We Stand to Lose
Ecosystem services
   Available now and essentially free
   Crucial to human and biological survival
   Experimentation is impossible

   Understanding will remain incomplete
    due to complexity
Growth and Prosperity
“Technology exists now to produce in
virtually inexhaustible quantities just about
all the products made by nature”
                            Julian Simon (1995)




“Planning … in an uncertain world … must
keep as many options open as possible
                            Emory Lovins (1973)
GDP vs. GPI

Gross Domestic Product      Genuine Progress Indicator
 Economic activity          Attempts to measure
  indicator only              welfare of society more
 Measures consumption        accurately
 Promotes drawdown of       Discounts uneconomic
  natural capital             “growth”
 Includes “bad” economic    Includes indicators for
  growth                      well being
Limits to Growth
   Model from the Club of Rome (1972)

   Herman Daly and the Steady State
    Model argues that unlimited economic
    growth is constrained by:
     ○ Biophysical limits (i.e., carrying capacity)
     ○ Moral limits (i.e., inter-generational equity)
Increasing Food Supplies
Changes to
ecosystems
have provided
substantial
benefits
Food Production Impacts
 Fertilizers
 Pesticides
 Marginal
  production land
 Mono-crops
 Mechanized
  equipment
 Irrigation
                    Human-produced Reactive Nitrogen
                    Humans now produce as much biologically
                    available N as all natural pathways. This may
                    grow a further 65% by 2050
Overpopulation




Population
growth
             GDP



                   HDI
Sustainable Development
   “development which meets the needs of
    the present without sacrificing the ability
    of the future to meet its needs”

      ○ Brundtland Commission Report, Our Common Future
        (World Commission on Environment and Development
        1987)
Sustainability
The Hartwick-Solow Approach
 Maintaining constant real consumption
 Exhaustible resources
 Non-declining total capital
 Natural and human capital are
  substitutes

 “Weak Sustainability”
Sustainability
The Ecological Economics Approach
 Exhaustible resources
 Natural and human capital are
  complements
 Critical natural capital has no substitute
     ○ Absolute, practical, or acceptable

   Non-declining natural capital

 “Strong Sustainability”
Sustainability
Ecological Economics Ideals
   Resource consumption
     Renewable – exploitation should not exceed the rate of
      regeneration
     Nonrenewable – extraction should be consistent with the
      development of renewable substitutes
   Waste and pollution
     Non-persistant – discharge should be less than
      absorptive/assimilative capacity of the environment
     Persistent pollutants – discharge should be zero
      (environment has no capacity)
Unsustainability
Factors contributing to the collapse of
past societies:
    Deforestation and habitat destruction
    Soil loss or degradation
    Water management failures
    Overhunting
    Overfishing
    Introduction of invasive species
    Excessive population growth
    Increased per-capita impact of people

 Increasing pressure results
   in loss or degradation of
   natural capital
Using Prices to Infer Scarcity
From last lecture…

“If a resource is becoming scarce, we
   would expect its price to go up.”

“We find that the prices of all these
  resources [copper, coal, oil, and other
  minerals] have fallen.”
Supply & Demand
        Demand              Supply
Price




                 Quantity
Market Prices
Decreasing Price = Increasing Abundance?

         Demand                 Supply
 Price




                   Quantity
What Determines Market Prices?
 Scarcity/Abundance (supply-side)
 Value/Utility (demand-side)


   Other costs of getting products to
    market (supply-side):
     Extraction/Production Costs
     Transportation Costs
Market Prices
What’s Missing?
   Contamination of air, water and soil, due to:
      ○ Extraction
      ○ Production
      ○ Transportation
      ○ Consumption
      ○ Disposal
 Effects on ecosystems
 Depletion/degradation of natural capital


 Externalities
Market Prices
Negative Externality Examples
   Driving
     Health costs from respiratory illness
     Contribution to climate change
   Produce
     Contaminated water bodies from fertilizers/pesticides
     Health costs of worker exposure to pesticides
   Wood products
     Damage to fish spawning habitat
     Extinction of spotted owl?
   Farmed salmon
     Impacts on natural stocks
Market Prices
Accounting for “External Costs”

         Demand                   Supply
 Price




                     Quantity
Economy-Environment Interactions
                         Environmental System


                        GLOBAL LIFE-SUPPORT


 Good soil quality                                    Impacts on biodiversity
                                Economic
 Good air quality                System                  Impacts on soil quality
Good water quality                                      Impacts on air quality
  Benefits of climate                               Impacts on water quality
                                                  Wastes (global, regional,
    Energy sources
                                                  and local pollution)
      Renewable resources
                                                 Toxic chemicals
           Nonrenewable resources
                                             Carbon emissions
                            Amenity values
Pollution
   Air pollution
     Smog, particulate matter, ozone-depleting
      substances
   Water pollution
     Effluent, leaks, spills, leaching
   Soil contamination
     Herbicides, pesticides, heavy metals,
 Radioactive contamination
 Thermal pollution
Top Ten World’s Worst Polluted
Places (2007)
City              Pollutants                                   Source
Sumgayit,         Organic chemicals, oil, heavy metals         Petrochemicals, industrial complexes
Azerbaijan
Linfen, China     Fly-ash, CO, NOx, SO2, VOCs, As, Pb          Automobiles, industrial emission
Tianying, China   Lead and heavy metals                        Mining and processing
Sukinda, India    Hexavalent chromium and other metals         Chromite mines and processing

Vapi, India       Chemicals and heavy metals                   Industrial estates
La Oroya, Peru    Lead, copper, zinc, and SO2                  Heavy metal mining and processing
Dzerzhinsk,       Chemicals and toxic byproducts – Sarin,      Cold War-era chemical weapons
Russia            VX gas, etc.; lead, phenols                  manufacturing
Norilsk, Russia   Particulates, SO2, heavy metals (nickel,     Major nickel and related metals mining
                  copper, cobalt, lead, selenium), phenols,    and processing
                  hydrogen sulfide
Chernobyl,        Radioactive dust incl. uranium, plutonium,   Meltdown of reactor core, 1986
Ukraine           cesium-137, strontium, and other metals
Kabwe, Zambia     Lead, cadmium                                Lead mining and processing


Source: Blacksmith, 2007
Worst Polluted Places
   Factors                    Effects
     No environmental           Cancer
        management plans         Skin illnesses
       No regulations           Respiratory diseases
       Illegal operation        Gastrointestinal disorders
       Poor technology          Infertility
       Accidents, leaks         Birth defects
       Indiscriminate           Pregnancy complications
        emissions/dumping        Impaired mental /physical
                                  development
                                 Tuberculosis
Global Warming and
Rainforests
From last lecture…

“So, considering only the question of
  global warming, the most
  environmentally sound policy would be
  to clear-cut all old-growth timber
  immediately then reseed.”
The “Decadent Old-Growth
Forest” Argument
   Carbon stocks in dynamic equilibrium

   No net sequestration of carbon

   Harvest and replace with young,
    vigorous forests
Forest Values
   Extractive Human           Ecosystem Services
    Values                       Sediment retention
     Timber                     Flood mitigation
     Medicinal herbs,           Water filtration
      fungi, fruits, nuts        Water storage/retention
     Fish & Game                Carbon sequestration
   Non-extractive             Ecological Values
    Human Values                 Biodiversity
     Recreation                 Wildlife habitat
     Scenic Values
                               Existence Value
Where is the Carbon?
 A 450-year-old
 Douglas fir/                                           1%
 Hemlock Forest                                         Foliage




                                                    4%
  16%
                                                    Branchwood
  Coarse
  Woody Debris                          53%
                                     Wood & Bark
                                                                       4%
                                                        Forest Floor Litter
                                         12%                & Fine Debris
                  1%                 Coarse Roots
                  Fine Roots                                          9%
                                                             Soil Carbon*
Source (data): Harmon et al., 1990
Harvested Carbon Pathways

                                     Long-term
                                                  ~ 50 years
                                      storage
                                     42.5 %
                                     Short-term
                                                  ~ 5 years
                                      storage
                                     57.5 %
                                      Defects
                                      Breakage
                                      Bark fuel
                                      Mulch             Atmosphere
                                      Paper
                                      Residues
Source (data): Harmon et al., 1990
Because we can, we should?
 Cuyahoga River – 1969
 Pollution causes river to
  burst into flames…
 Regional Impact



Unintended consequence
  Learn and do better
     next time
Because we can, we should?
 Chernobyl – 1986
 Evacuation and
  resettlement
  of >350 000 people
 National / International
  Impact

Unintended consequence
  Learn and do better
     next time
Because we can, we should?
 Climate Change –
  1990’s and 2000’s
 Affects over 6.5 billion
  people
 Global problem with no
  clear solution

Unintended consequence
 X Can we always
     continue to learn and
     do better?
How Engineers can
Help Save the World
   Look Forward
      ○ Consider risks to the future – equity and sustainability
      ○ Evaluate trade-offs (ecological, social, economic,
        technological)
      ○ What would a “sustainable society” look like?

   Change Our Thinking
      ○ Think about potential consequences (long and short
        term)
      ○ Technology should create smaller impacts, not try to
        make up for damages caused
      ○ Acknowledge uncertainty and communicate to others –
        use the precautionary principle
   Take Action!
Questions? Comments?
Please contact us if you have questions or
are interested in REM


 Brad - bga12@sfu.ca
 Alex - awhall@sfu.ca