Climate Change Mitigation and The Kyoto Protocol

Climate Change Mitigation and The Kyoto Protocol Dave Reay GHGonline.org Copyright © 2003 Rio, Kyoto and beyond 1988 WMO and UNEP establish the IPCC The UN general assembly takes up climate change for the first time 7 April 1995 COP1 launches a new round of negotiations on a ‘protocol or another legal instrument’ 1990 IPCC’s first assessment report Second World Climate Conference UN general assembly and convention 11-15 Dec 1995 IPCC approves second assessment report on science of climate change - underlines strong action needed Feb 1991 INCC meets for first time 19 July 1996 COP2 takes note of the Geneva Ministerial Declaration, which acts as further impetus to on-going negotiations 9 May 1992 UN framework convention on climate change adopted in New York 11 Dec 1997 COP3 adopts the Kyoto Protocol to the UN framework convention on climate change in Kyoto, Japan 4 June 1992 Convention opened for signature at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 21 March 1994 Convention enters into force, after receiving 50 ratifications The FCCC ‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic human induced interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner’ 1988 WMO and UNEP establish the IPCC The UN general assembly takes up climate change for the first time 7 April 1995 COP1 launches a new round of negotiations on a ‘protocol or another legal instrument’ 1990 IPCC’s first assessment report Second World Climate Conference UN general assembly and convention 11-15 Dec 1995 IPCC approves second assessment report on science of climate change - underlines strong action needed Feb 1991 INCC meets for first time 19 July 1996 COP2 takes note of the Geneva Ministerial Declaration, which acts as further impetus to on-going negotiations 9 May 1992 UN framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) adopted in New York 11 Dec 1997 COP3 adopts the Kyoto Protocol to the UN framework convention on climate change in Kyoto, Japan 4 June 1992 Convention opened for signature at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 21 March 1994 Convention enters into force, after receiving 50 ratifications Rio, Kyoto and beyond What’s a COP? 1988 WMO and UNEP establish the IPCC The UN general assembly takes up climate change for the first time 7 April 1995 COP1 launches a new round of negotiations on a ‘protocol or another legal instrument’ 1990 IPCC’s first assessment report Second World Climate Conference UN general assembly and convention 11-15 Dec 1995 IPCC approves second assessment report on science of climate change - underlines strong action needed Feb 1991 INCC meets for first time 19 July 1996 COP2 takes note of the Geneva Ministerial Declaration, which acts as further impetus to on-going negotiations 9 May 1992 UN framework convention on climate change adopted in New York 11 Dec 1997 COP3 adopts the Kyoto Protocol to the UN framework convention on climate change in Kyoto, Japan 4 June 1992 Convention opened for signature at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 21 March 1994 Convention enters into force, after receiving 50 ratifications The Kyoto Protocol Annexe 1 Rich countries Annexe 2 Includes developing countries The Kyoto Protocol Article 2: Ways to fight increasing GHG Article 2.1.a.i Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy Article 2.1.a.ii Protection and enhancement of sinks Article 2.1.a.iii Promote sustainable agriculture Article 2.1.a.iv Research and promote new and renewable energy Article 2.1.a.v Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’ Article 2.1.a.vi Encourage ‘good practices’ Article 2.1.a.vii Limit GHG from transport Article 2.1.a.viii Limit methane emissions through recovery and use Article 2.1.b Cooperate Article 2.2. Cut GHG from aviation Figure 6-8: Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv) accumulated from aviation’s use of fossil fuel beginning in 1940. Article 2.3. Be careful of wider impact - avoid adverse effects Article 3.1 Keep to assigned amounts of GHG with overall worldwide reduction by at least 5% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012 Article 3.2 Everyone must have shown progress by 2005 Article 3.3 Verifiable changes since 1990 in GHG emissions by sources and removals by sinks due to direct human-induced land-use change and forestry can be used to meet commitments Article 3.4 Everyone must supply their level of ‘carbon stocks’ in 1990 so the change since can be estimated. BUT what sinks, sources and ‘additional activities’ which can be added or subtracted from GHG reduction commitments? Article 4 Countries can meet their commitments together Article 5 All countries will have in place, at least a year before the first commitment period (2008), a national system for measuring GHG emission changes Article 6 Joint implementation -Countries can work together to meet their emission reduction targets Article 7 All countries will supply the extra information needed with the numbers it gives i.e. perceived wider impacts Article 8 All the information given by each country will be reviewed by expert, independent, review teams Article 9 The protocol will be regularly reviewed in light of the best information available at the time Article 10 All countries should develop national and/or regional programmes to both limit GHG emissions and improve the quality of GHG data via consistent methods. Cooperate Article 11 The richer countries will provide funds and technology to developing countries to help them better advance towards GHG reduction Article 12 The Clean Development Mechanism Article 12 Richer (annex 1) countries can help developing countries to achieve sustainable development and limit GHG increases and then claim some emission reductions for their own targets Article 12.5 (a) Voluntary participation by each country (b) Real, measurable, and long-term benefits related to mitigating climate change (c) Reductions must be additional to those which would occur anyway Article 17 Emissions trading - countries can trade in ‘emission units’ 11 Dec 1997 COP3 adopts the Kyoto Protocol to the UN framework convention on climate change in Kyoto, Japan 16 Mar 1998 Kyoto Protocol opened for signature at UN headquarters in New York. Receives 84 signatures in a year 14 Nov 1998 COP4 adopts the ‘Buenos Aires plan of action’ to strengthen the Convention and prepare for Protocol enforcement 13-24 Nov 2000 COP6 meets in The Hague, the Netherlands, to take key decisions on the convention and the protocol. Talks break down.. 23 July 2001 COP6a Global warming accord reached at Bonn by more than 180 countries. US notable by its absence The Economic benefits of the Kyoto protocol A key objection raised by opponents of the Kyoto Protocol is that compliance to the target of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions by 5.3% by 2012 would impose an unacceptable economic burden. Based on an analysis of alternative scenarios for electricity generation over the next ten years, De Leo et al. conclude that if the costs in terms of damage to human health, material goods, agriculture and the environment caused by greenhouse gas emissions are included in the equation, the economic argument against Kyoto is untenable. Nature 413, 478-479 October 2001 11 Dec 1997 COP3 adopts the Kyoto Protocol to the UN framework convention on climate change in Kyoto, Japan August 2002 ‘Rio +10’ ‘Earth Summit 2002’, ten years on from the 1992 ‘Earth summit’ Little progress on energy use -EU go it alone. 16 Mar 1998 Kyoto Protocol opened for signature at UN headquarters in New York. Receives 84 signatures in a year October 2002 COP8 In New Delhi 14 Nov 1998 COP4 adopts the ‘Buenos Aires plan of action’ to strengthen the Convention and prepare for Protocol enforcement October 2003 Climate change conference in Russia - will they ratify? 13-24 Nov 2000 COP6 meets in The Hague, the Netherlands, to take key decisions on the convention and the protocol. Talks break down.. 2004 Kyoto protocol in force? - money being made, increasing pressure on Bush to change his mind. 23 July 2001 COP6a Global warming accord reached at Bonn by more than 180 countries. US notable by its absence 2008-2012 First commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol 29 Oct 2001 COP7 in Marrakesh, Morocco - moves to ensure the key 55% emissions target is reached What came out of Bonn 2001? •The proper management of forest and farmland carbon sinks can be included •This heavy allowance for sinks could reduce the real worldwide commitment form 5.2% to 1.8% •No legally binding penalties for failing - to keep Japan and Russia in •Aid for developing countries for ‘sustainable development’ totalling £370m a year (50% form the EU) What Next? • If Russia ratifies then the Kyoto Protocol will come into force