Tracing the Contours of Turkish Ideological Space, 2001-2004 by 3n5ulPE

VIEWS: 7 PAGES: 33

									Tracing the Contours of Turkish
 Ideological Space, 2001-2004
     Ali Çarkoğlu        Melvin J. Hinich




                April, 2006



                                            1
Vote Share on a Left - Right Scale 1950-2002

                    80


                                             Military Coups
                    70



                    60



                    50
 Vote shares (% )




                                                                                                       Le ft of Ce nte r,
                                                                                                       "Extre me " Le ft
                                                                                                       Ce nte r-Le ft
                    40
                                                                                                       Ce nte r-Right

                    30                                                                                 Right of Ce nte r,
                                                                                                       "Extre me " Right


                    20



                    10



                     0
                     1950 1954 1957 1960 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1980 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2002
                                                      Election years


                                                                                                                            2
                        Ideological Groups in the Turkish Party System
          Extreme-Left (EL)                                     Center-Left (CL)
People's Democracy Party (Halkın
Demokrasi P.-HADEP)                       Republican Peoples Party (Cumhuriyet Halk P.-CHP)
Democratic People's Party (Demokratik
Halkın P.-DEHAP)                          Democratic Left Party (Demokratik Sol Parti-DSP)
                                Programmatic/Policy Platforms
Ethnic Kurdish nationalist                Strictly secularist
Pro-EU                                    Relatively more state interventionist
Support base is east and southeastern
Anatolia                                  Pro-EU

                                          Relatively more urban

                                          Obtaining Alevi support (CHP)

                                          Charismatic leader (DSP)

                                          Support base is western and coastal provinces

                                                                                              3
                                       Ideological Groups in the Turkish Party System
                 Center-Right (CR)                                                       Pro-Islamist
Motherland Party (Anavatan Partisi-ANAP)                     Felicity party (Saadet Partisi-SP)
True Path Party (Doğru Yol Partisi-DYP)                      Justice & Development Party (Adalet&Kalkınma P.-AKP)
Young Party (Genç Parti-GP)                                                               Nationalist

                                                             Nationalist Action Party (Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi-MHP)

                                                             Grand Unity Party (Büyük Birlik Partisi-BBP)
                                                  Programmatic/Policy Platforms
Secularist on policy matters but courting the brotherhoods                               Pro-Islamist
Market oriented economic policy                              Pro-Islamist Sunni supporters, close w/ Islamist circles
Relatively more developed rural support                      Relatively more eurosceptic
Pro-EU                                                       Populist in economic policy, state interventionist
Support base is western and coastal provinces                Support base is central Anatolia
Support base is western and coastal provinces (GP)                                        Nationalist

                                                             Ethnic Turkish nationalist, Sunni supporters

                                                             Sunni supporters, Anti-EU

                                                                                                                    4
                                                             Populist in economic policy, state interventionist
                                Province clusters in November 2002
                                                                                                               •AKP is by far the largest party, CHP and DYP are second and third far behind

•AKP is by far the largest party, CHP is the second with considerable votes, DYP and MHP are following
                                                                                                                                                   •AKP is by far the largest party, ANAP is the second far behind

                                                                                                                                                                                              •AKP is by far the
                                                                                                                                                                                            largest party, there are
                                                                                                                                                                                            considerable votes for
                  •KIRKLARELİ                           •BARTIN              •SİNOP                                                                                                            the independent
                             •İSTANBUL                                          •34                                     •RİZE
             •EDİRNE             •248                        •15 •KASTAMONU                                                                                                            •ARDAHAN candidate
                                      •KOCAELİ •ZONGULDAK                             •SAMSUN                                    •ARTVİN
                  •TEKİRDAĞ
                                       •116      •DÜZCE  •KARABÜK                                •ORDU           •TRABZON •14
                                                                                                        •GİRESUN                         •KARS
                            •YALOVA •SAKARYA •BOLU •27            •ÇANKIRI •ÇORUM   •AMASYA         •65
                                             •41                                                             •GÜMÜŞHANE
                                                       •30                                 •TOKAT
                                                                                                                      •BAYBURT                  •IĞDIR
             •ÇANAKKALE       •BURSA                                                        •23                   •45          •ERZURUM
                •36             •165  •BİLECİK
                                                           •ANKARA
                                                                    •KIRIKKALE                  •SİVAS      •ERZİNCAN              •24       •AĞRI
                    •BALIKESİR              •ESKİŞEHİR
                                                              •203            •YOZGAT
                                                 •47                                               •9
                                •KÜTAHYA                               •KIRŞEHİR                                 •TUNCELİ
                                                                                                                           •BİNGÖL •MUŞ
                            •MANİSA                     •AFYON                                           •ELAZIĞ        •54                              •VAN
                              •54                                                            •NEVŞEHİR
                                                                                                     •KAYSERİ                            •BİTLİS
                                   •UŞAK                                                                                                                  •27
                                                                                                •MALATYA
                     •İZMİR                  •23                                        •AKSARAY       •107  •DİYARBAKIR
                      •106                            •KONYA                                                                  •BATMAN
                                                        •118                                                          •69                •SİİRT
                         •AYDIN            •ISPARTA                   •NİĞDE                     •ADIYAMAN                                                     •HAKKARİ

                             •50 •DENİZLİ                                                                                                   •ŞIRNAK
                                                                                 •KAHRAMANMARAŞ
                                                                        •50 •ADANA
                                                                                                     •ŞANLIURFA         •MARDİN
                           •MUĞLA     •BURDUR                                   •OSMANİYE
                              •44            •ANTALYA                                                      •45
                                                 •63       •KARAMAN                     •GAZİANTEP
                                                                 •İÇEL                      •26
                                                                                         •KİLİS
                                                                 •22              •HATAY                •DEHAP is by far the largest party, AKP is the second far behind
                                                                                    •28


                                                                                                                                              1st Province                         4th Province
                                                                                                                                                 Cluster                              Cluster
                •CHP is the first party, AKP is the second with considerable votes and DYP is the tird party
                                                                                                                                              2nd Province                         5th Province
                                                                                                                                                 Cluster                              Cluster

                                                                                                                                              3rd Province                         6th Province
                                                                                                                                                 Cluster                              Cluster             5
            Euclidean Distance Model

Suppose that there are N observers and
M targets. Each observer at position

                  x i   xi1 , xi 2 

reports the squared Euclidean distance
                  πm  xi
                              2



to the targets at locations π m   m1 , m 2 
                                                    6
          Squared Distances with Errors

πm  xi
          2              π  2π x  x x  e
               eim  π m m     m i    i i    im


For each error eim
                  E  eim   0

                   E e
                   2
                   m
                             2
                             im   

                                                   7
        Removing the Nonlinear Terms

The nonlinearity is removed by subtracting
the distances to one target, target m=0
from the distances to the other targets.
Then compute the sample covariance
matrix of the differences

    D  π m , xi   π m  xi  π 0  xi  ei 0  eim
                           2            2




                                                        8
 D  π m , xi   π mπ m  2π mxi  eim  ei 0

Assume that the errors em

are independently & identically
distributed and that they are
independent of the observer
positions xi



                                                   9
   Covariance Matrix of Distance Differences

• Assume that the observer positions are
  uncorrelated random variables whose
  variances are  1 &  2
                  2      2



  Then the covariance matrix of the distance
  differences is
      Σ D  4Π Σ x Π  Ψ   0 11
                              2



               1    0
                  2

         x          2 
               0     2                      10
                        
     
   π1 ,       , πM   
is a Mx2 matrix of target positions

       2
         1   0       0 
   0
Ψ             0 
  0             2 
             0 M 
  

       E e
         2
         m
                    2
                    im   
                                      11
                   2001 Survey

   A nation-wide representative survey of urban
   population conducted during the chaotic
   weeks of the second economic crisis of
   February 2001

   1201 face-to-face interviews were conducted in
   12 of the 81 provinces of Turkey

 The survey was run during 2/20 – 3/16 using a

random sampling method that represents the nationwide
voting age urban population based on the urban
population figures of 1997 census data.
                                                    12
                      Estimated ideal points & party positions - 2001 survey
                                         8




                                         6


                                              A Prominent Businessman
                                         4
                             HADEP
     A Labor Leader                                          ANAP
                                         2                                   A Very Religious Leader



                                         0
-9                     -4                        1                            6                        11
                                                                        FP

                                         -2
             CHP
                                                 DYP
                                         -4
                                       DSP
                                                               MHP
                                         -6



                                         -8

                                                                                                        13
                                   Party positions & mean ideal points of party voters ideal points - 2001
                                                        3
                                   HADEP
     Quadrant 4                                                                                                                      Quadrant 1

                                                        2
                                                                Hadep
                                     A Labor Leader                                                                          A Very Religious Leader

                                                        1

                                                                               Abstainers
                                                        0
                  Chp                                                                                                                   Fp
-2                            -1                            0                               1 ANAP           2               3               FP        4
           CHP
                              A Prominent Businessman                                                 Anap
                                                      -1
                                            Dsp                                                                  Dyp
                                                                        None of the presently available
                                                                                    parties                            Mhp
                                                      -2
                                                                                                     DYP

                                                      -3
                                                                                                                  MHP

                                                      -4

     Quadrant 3         DSP
                                                                                                                                       Quadrant 2
                                                      -5
                          Estimated party names in capital letters - mean ideal points of party voters in lower case

                                                                                                                                                       14
                                 Mean ideal points of primary identity groups - 2001

                                             3



                                             2
                                     Hadep
                     Alevi
                                                      Kurd

                                             1 Kurdish speaker
                                                                                      None of the presently available
     Non-religious (0-2)
                                                                   Abstainers
                                                                                              Mildly religious (3-7)
                                             0
-2        Chp        -1                           0                              1                          2                           3     Fp        4
                             European Union                                                                        Muslim
                                                       Citizen of Turkey                                                      Islamic World
                                                                                     Anap
                                             -1
                                                                                Turk Turkish World      Very religious (8-10)
                                                      Cannot speak Kurdish
                               Dsp                                                                                Dyp
                                             -2
                                                                                                                        Mhp


                                             -3



                                             -4



                                             -5


                                                                                                                                                   15
           KEY DATA ABOUT THE SURVEY
• The target of the sample was the nation-wide urban and
  rural settlers who are 18 years or older.
• The sample consisted of a total of 2028 face-to-face
  interviews conducted in 54 districts, 291 neighborhoods and
  95 villages of a total 33 provinces.
• Under the restrictive assumption of simple random sampling
  this sample has a confidence interval of 95% with an error
  margin of +/- 2,2%.
• Provinces chosen according to probability proportionate to
  size (PPS) principle on the basis of their registered voter
  population in 1999 general election.
• The questionnaire was administered between the 10th and
  25th of October 2002.
                                                            16
      FACTS ABOUT THE FIELD RESEARCH
• Training for questionnaire implementation was given by Ali
  Çarkoğlu and Ersin Kalaycıoğlu on October 4. The
  questionaire was tested and necessay corrections made
  after a pilot study on October 5-6.

• During the project 9 experts, 35 supervisers and 186
  interviewers were assigned.

• 45% of the interviews were completed in the first trial. The
  rest is completed by either trying for a second time or
  selecting new streets and households.

· Interviews lasted 35 minutes on average.

• 45% of the interviews were randomly controlled. Controls are
  made either by phoning or going to the households one
  more time. 332 interviews were cancelled and conducted
                                                           17
  with replacements.
                             Basic Independent Variables
Sex           Male                      52   Socio-economic status Low                 59
              Female                    48                          Medium             31
Age           18-24                     20                          High               10
              25-34                     25   Religious conservatism Low                29
              35-44                     22                          Medium             41
              45-54                     15                          High               30
              55+                       17   Ethnic nationalism     Low                12
Education     No schooling-illiterate   13                          Medium             29
              Primary school            46                          High               59
              Junior high school        11   Xenophobia             Low                28
              High school               22                          Medium             38
              University+                8                          High               34
Kurdish       Can speak                 12   Political efficacy     Low                23
              Cannot speak              88                          Medium             40
Inhabitant of Province centre           46                          High               37
              District centre           20   EU membership          Supports           73
              Rural village             34                          Does not support   27
Dwelling type Shanty town               21
              Medium registered         73
              Luxurious registered       5                                                  18
               Vote Intentions for the November 3rd Election

             •AKP                                                                             •    % 29,4
             •CHP                                                         •   % 14,4
               •GP                                        •       % 9,9
              •DYP                    •           % 5,0
             •MHP                •           % 4,1
           •DEHAP           •             % 3,3
            •ANAP       •             % 2,4
               •SP•              % 1,5
                •
              •YTP              % 1,0
                •
              •DSP          % 0,7
               •
              •BBP          % 0,6
             •Other•            % 1,3
     •Will not vote •                % 1,9
Will not vote for the
                                              •           % 7,1
 • existing parties
      •Undecided                                     •        % 8,7
           •DK/NA                                    •        % 8,7

                  •%0                                         •%10                     •%20       •%30
                                                                                                  19
       Xenophobia & Political Efficacy

• Xenophobia
• Foreigners who settle in our country harm our culture.
• Foreigners who settle in our country make our chances
  of finding a job
• more difficult
• Some should either love Turkey or leave it.
• I would not want a foreigner to be my neighbor
• Political efficacy
• Regular citizens like me have no power for changing
  political decisions in Turkey for their advantage.
• Turkey is being ruled by a small and powerful group.
• Whatever I do I don't think I can reach a better position in
  society
                                                            20
        Descriptive Statistics of the Grade Scores 2002
Party/ (Hypothetical Politician)    N     Mean Std. Deviation
                           AKP 1904       6.06        3.44
                           CHP 1889       4.28        3.11
                              GP 1877     4.06        3.06
      A prominent businessman 1830        3.74        3.10
                           DYP 1907       3.69        2.65
         A very religious leader 1848     3.31        2.94
                          MHP 1899        3.23        2.61
                              SP 1880     3.06        2.49
                         ANAP 1900        3.00        2.43
                             YTP 1847     2.98        2.37
                           BBP 1829       2.81        2.25
                            DSP 1926      2.31        2.19
                       DEHAP 1850         2.10        2.19
                                                           21
              Valid N (listwise) 1727
Question - I'm going to give to you a
series of promises and would like to
get your evaluation as to which party
do you find most convincing in
realizing each one.

1 Limiting the MP immunity
2 Reducing unemployment
3 Reducing taxes
4 Membership in the EU
5 Increased effort to combat
corruption
6 Revitalizing the economy
7 Resolving the Cyprus problem
                                        22
8    Reducing inflation
9    Resolving    education    and   health
policy problems
10      Resolving     the       headscarves
problem
11      Resolving    the      problems   in
agriculture
12      Enforcing the moral values in
Turkish society


Respondents are asked to pick one party
as most credible.
                                              23
Valence Question - Revitalizing the Economy



 AKP                                                         532         26.23
 ANAP                                                         39          1.92
 BBP                                                           8          0.39
 CHP                                                         227         11.19
 DEHAP /HADEP                                                 25          1.23
 DSP                                                           7          0.35
 DYP                                                          82          4.04
 Genç P                                                      157          7.74
 MHP                                                          38          1.87
 SP                                                           22          1.08
 YTP                                                          11          0.54
 BTP                                                           1          0.05
 İP                                                                  2       0   .   1   0




 L   D       P                                                       2       0   .   1   0




 Ö       D       P                                                   2       0   .   1   0




 T   K       P                                                       1       0   .   0   5




 N       o   n       e       o   f   t       h       e   m   6   5   4   3   2   .   2   5




 N       o       a       n   s   w       e       r           2   1   8   1   0   .   7   5




                                                                                             24
           Estimated ideal points and party positions, full sample, 2002 survey
                                            6


                                         DEHAP
                                                 DSP
                                            4

                                                       CHP


                                            2

                                                   YTP

                                           GP
                                            0
-13   -8                       -3                        2                 7      12
                                                 ANAP
                          RELIGIOUS
                                    SP
                                           -2
                                                  MHP

                                AKP                DYP
                                         BBP
                                           -4




                                           -6
                                                                                  25
                 Party positions & mean ideal points of party voters - 2002 survey
                                                                    5
                                                     DEHAP
                                                                                        DS P

                                                                    4                                           CHP




                                                                    3
                                Dehap
                                                                                                                      Chp
                                                                                                          Dsp
                                                                    2
                                                   None of the PA
                                                                                     YTP
                                                                                           Others
                                                                    1

                                                                                                                Ytp
                                                           GP
                                                                            Gp
                                                                    0
                                                                                        Anap
-4   RELIGIOUS
          -3               -2                 -1              No vote0                         1                            2   3
                                                                                 ANAP
                                                                         Undecided
                                                                    -1
                   Sp

                        Akp                                                             Mhp
                              SP                                                                    Dyp
                                                             Bbp -2              MHP

                  AKP
                                                   BBP
                                                                    -3
                                                                                     DYP



                 Estimated party names in capital letters - Mean voter ideal points in lower case
                                                              -4


                                                                                                                                    26
                       Mean ideal points for ethnic identity & attitudes toward religious issues


                                                                            5
                                                               DEHAP
                                                                                                   DSP

                                                                            4                              CHP



                                                                            3


                                                                            2
                                                                                             YTP

                                                                            1
                                     Can speak Kurdish
                                                                       GP Muslims are NOT under pressure
                                                                            0
-3                      -2                     -1                         0 No to Şeriat   ANAP    1             2        3
                                  Muslims are under pressure
                                                                  Can not speak Kurdish
     RELIGIOUS                                                              -1

                                  Yes to Şeriat
                             SP
                                                                           -2              MHP
                 AKP
                                                         BBP
                                                                           -3                 DYP


                                                                           -4


                                                                                                                     27
          Mean ideal points for positions on foreign policy preferences
                                                                            5
                                                           DEHAP
                                                                                                     DSP

                                                                            4                                             CHP




                                                                            3




                                 Feels part of Europe                       2
                                                                                               YTP
                                                               Feels part of the whole World           Feels part of Turkey

                                                                            1
                         Feels part of native province                                                   TUR should develop closer
                                                                      GP                               tiese with Western countries

                                                                            0
-4       -3             -2 Feels part of the ME   -1                            0                          1                          2
                                                                                                     TUR should be closer to İsrail
     RELIGIOUS                                                             -1

                                      TUR should develop closer        Feels part of native region
                          SP         tiese with Muslim countries                                       ANAP
                                                                         -2
                                                          TUR should be closer to other MHP
                                                                 ME countries
                 AKP
                                                         BBP
                                                                           -3
                                                                                               DYP



                                                                           -4




                                                                                                                                          28
                 Mean ideal points for nationalism attidued & L-R ideology
                                                            5
                                                               DEHAP
                                                                                                          DSP

                                                                               4                                              CHP




                                                                               3
                                                Ethnic nationalism Low
                                                                                                            Leftist (1 to4)
                                                                                        Xenophobia Low
                                                                               2

                                                                                                    YTP

                                                                                                           Religious conservatism Low
                                                                               1

                                                                                                                ANAP
                                                                         GP
                                                                              Middle (5-6)
                                                                               0
-4        -3                  -2                       -1          Men              0                           1                       2
                             Religious conservatism High                                    Women
     RELIGIOUS
                                                                               -1                     Ethnic nationalism High



                                                            Xenophobia High
                             SP                                                -2               MHP
                                      Rightist (7 to 10)


                   AKP                                      BBP
                                                                               -3
                                                                                                    DYP



                                                                               -4




                                                                                                                                        29
                                                              Determinants of the positions on the two dimensions
                                                                                                                         Dimension 1                    Dimension 2
Coefficients                                                                                                    Pro-Islamism vs Secularism          Pro vs anti Reform
                                                                                                            Unstandardized Coefficients      Unstandardized Coefficients
                                                                                                                     B               Sig.           B               Sig.
                                                                                                (Constant)         -0.11             0.82         1.85              0.00
           Age                                                                                                      0.00             0.85          0.00             0.14
                                                                                              Sex (Male=1)         -0.40             0.01         -0.05             0.70
                                                Can speak European languages (English/Germa/French)                0.46              0.03         -0.12             0.47
           Can speak Arabic                                                                                        -0.24             0.42         -0.32             0.16
                                                                                        Can speak Kurdish          -0.55             0.04         0.41              0.04
           Unemployed                                                                                              -0.06             0.82         -0.67             0.00
           Student                                                                                                  0.15             0.67         -0.10             0.71
           Worker (public+private)                                                                                 -0.33             0.14         -0.04             0.81
                                                                         Public Employee (public+private)          -0.62             0.04         -0.22             0.35
           Ownership status index                                                                                  -0.07             0.42          0.02             0.76
           Dummy for no schooling                                                                                  -0.07             0.86         -0.03             0.92
           Dummy for primary school                                                                                 0.27             0.41          0.05             0.85
           Dummy for junior high                                                                                    0.29             0.41         -0.18             0.52
           Dummy for High school                                                                                    0.25             0.39         -0.29             0.20
           Shanty town (Gecekondu) dummy                                                                           -0.36             0.06         -0.18             0.21
                                                           Religious conservatism REGR factor score 1              -0.71             0.00         -0.50             0.00
                                                                Ethnic nationalism REGR factor score 2              0.10             0.20         -0.20             0.00
                                                                        Xenophobia REGR factor score 3             -0.23             0.00         -0.16             0.01
           Political efficacy REGR factor score 4                                                                  -0.03             0.70         -0.03             0.54
                                                                                                                   -0.01
           To what degree is it important that one party wins the elections in order to have your family income rise.                0.61         -0.01             0.71
           To what degree you vote will influence the outcome of the elections.                                    -0.01             0.69          0.00             0.86
                                                                              Self placement on L-R index          -0.12             0.00         -0.39             0.00
             Dummy for those who do not believe that there exists a party that can resolve TUR problems            0.51              0.00          0.12             0.35
                                                           Dummy for those who support EU membership               0.37              0.02         0.30              0.02
              Dummy for those who had taken the local initiative to resolve some of their local problems           0.53              0.00          0.04             0.77
          Dummy for those who always cast a vote in general electionsHer seçimde oy kullanmış dummy                0.38              0.02         -0.17             0.17
           İncome gap between the real and desired income                                                           0.00             0.56          0.00             0.46
           Dummy for those who had been angry in the recent past                                                   -0.20             0.21         -0.02             0.86
           Positive evaluation of the past on family                                                                0.58             0.33          0.62             0.17
           Positive evaluation of the past on Turkey                                                                0.84             0.06          0.47             0.18
                                                        Dummy for positive evaluations of the present day          0.72              0.01         -0.04             0.85
           Positive for familiy's future                                                                           -0.11             0.63          0.09             0.60
           Positive for Turkey's future                                                                             0.10             0.65          0.09             0.58
           Yes to Şeriat                                                                                           -0.38             0.07          0.07             0.68
           Degree of belief in destiny                                                                          0.04               0.07            0.01             0.51
                                                                                              R Square         0.278                              0.430                    30
                                                                                    Adjusted R Square          0.253                              0.410
                                                                             Std. Error of the Estimate        2.283                              1.760
 March-2004 survey of nation-wide
 representative urban population (N=1,232)



                              Mean Therm om eter Scores for Party Leaders-2004
                      0   1              2                  3         4          5   6          7


  AKP (T. Erdoğan)                                                                       6,46


     DYP (M. Agar)                                   2,43


    CHP (D. Baykal)                                  2,41


   MHP (D. Bahceli)                             2,27


DEHAP (T. Bakirhan)                           2,10


    SP (N. Erbakan)                          2,08


  ANAP (M. Yılmaz)                      1,91


       GP (C. Uzan)                    1,83




                                                                                         31
                     Estimated Party Positions-2004
                            8


                            6

                       DEHAP
                           4


                            2     AKP     SP

                           0
-9   -7    -5   -3     -1 GP        1            3    5           7   9        11
                                   ANAP
                           -2
                                                      MHP

                           -4                               DYP


                           -6


                           -8
          CHP

                          -10




                                                                          32
                                                                                       1,5
                                                           Mean positions across different groups and issue stands-2004

                  Speaks Kurdish
                                                                                              1,0


                                                                                                                                                                                   Ethnic (?) Turkish
                                                                                              0,5
                                                                                                                                                                                      Happy w/
                                                                                                                                                                            work, democracy, income and
                                                                                                                                                                            neighborhood living mostly
                                                                                              0,0
                                                                                                                                                                             in smaller district centers.
 -1,0               -0,8              -0,6                  -0,4                -0,2             0,0                     0,2               0,4                0,6               0,8                 1,0

                                                                                                                                                                             However, does not support
                                                  Unhappy at work
                                                                                              -0,5                                                                           closer ties w/ Israel and the
                                                                                                                 Neighborhood does not have different
                                                                                                                                                                                          EU
                    Unhappy with the way democracy works                                              H                    identity groups
                                                                   Income insufficient to                                                                           Closer ties w other ME
                                                                                                     Province Center
                                                                        meet needs                                                                                        countries
                                                                                              -1,0
                                                                                                                                            District Center
                                                                                                                                                                                    Neighbors are in
         Unhappy w/                      Feels unsafe at night in                                                                                                                     harmonious
  work, democracy, income                    neighborhood                                     -1,5                                                                                   relationships
                                                 Neighbors are not in harmonious                                   Men                                                  No to EU
and neighborhood, living in
                                                                                                                                                                                 Feels safe at night in
  relatively larger province                                relationships
                                                                                                                               ●                                                      neighborhood
           centers.
                                    Closer ties w Israel                                      -2,0                                                                        Happy with the way
                                          Neighborhood has different identity                                       Women                                                  democracy works
 However, supports closer                                                         Yes to EU
  ties w/ Israel and the EU                              groups                                                                                                             Income sufficient to meet
                                                                                                         Happy at work             Does not speak Kurdish                            needs
                                                                                              -2,5
                                                1st D.                2nd D.
        Alevis                                  -1.5                    -3.8                                                                                                                 33
        Non-Alevis                              +0.3                    -1.7

								
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