Quarter Period Value
t yt Canada Faculty Association
8500
1 1 7130
2 2 6940
3 3 7354 8000
Membership
4 4 7556
1 5 7673
2 6 7332 7500
3 7 7662
4 8 7809
1 9 7872 7000
2 10 7551
3 11 7989
4 12 8143 6500
1 13 8167 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2 14 7902
3 15 8268 Period
4 16 8436
ty Association
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Period
Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Step 6
Moving Period Unadjusted Adjusted Deseasonalized
Period Value Average Factor Seasonal Seasonal Deseasonalized Regression
Quarter t yt Tt yt/Tt Factor Factor yt Tt
1 1 7130 1.0149023 1.014325 7,029.30 7,148.07
2 2 6940 0.9658012 0.965252 7,189.83 7,226.48
3 3 7354 7312.88 1.00562 1.0053303 1.004759 7,319.17 7,304.88
4 4 7556 7429.75 1.01699 1.0162412 1.015663 7,439.47 7,383.29
1 5 7673 7517.25 1.02072 1.0149023 1.014325 7,564.63 7,461.69
2 6 7332 7587.38 0.96634 0.9658012 0.965252 7,595.94 7,540.10
3 7 7662 7643.88 1.00237 1.0053303 1.004759 7,625.71 7,618.50
4 8 7809 7696.13 1.01467 1.0162412 1.015663 7,688.57 7,696.91
1 9 7872 7764.38 1.01386 1.0149023 1.014325 7,760.82 7,775.31
2 10 7551 7847 0.96228 0.9658012 0.965252 7,822.83 7,853.71
3 11 7989 7925.63 1.008 1.0053303 1.004759 7,951.16 7,932.12
4 12 8143 8006.38 1.01706 1.0162412 1.015663 8,017.42 8,010.52
1 13 8167 8085.13 1.01013 1.0149023 1.014325 8,051.66 8,088.93
2 14 7902 8156.63 0.96878 0.9658012 0.965252 8,186.46 8,167.33
3 15 8268 1.0053303 1.004759 8,228.84 8,245.74
4 16 8436 1.0162412 1.015663 8,305.90 8,324.14
17 1.014325 8,402.55
18 0.965252 8,480.95
19 1.004759 8,559.36
20 1.015663 8,637.76
Step 7
Adjusted
Seasonal
Forecast
Ft SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.991358821
R Square 0.982792313
Adjusted R Square 0.981563192
Standard Error 51.12669573
Observations 16
ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 1 2090079.145 2090079.145 799.5898647
Residual 14 36595.14623 2613.939017
Total 15 2126674.291
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value
Intercept 7069.667712 26.81106543 263.6846988 2.80712E-27
8,522.92 Period 78.40466569 2.772734378 28.27702008 9.42931E-14
8,186.26
8,600.09
8,773.06
34,082.32
Significance F
9.42931E-14
Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
7012.163696 7127.171728 7012.163696 7127.171728
72.45774192 84.35158945 72.45774192 84.35158945