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					Dynamics Model of a
Net-Zero Neighborhood


Brandon Davis
Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical
University

Dr. Gilbert Weigand
Computing and Computational Science
Directorate

August 2009
                                        Overview


• Background
• Methods
• Results
• Conclusions
• Future work




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    for the U.S. Department of Energy
                                                         Background
        • America is
              – addicted to foreign oil
                    • In 1970, imported 24% of oil currently nearly 70% and rising
                    • Largest wealth transfer ever known to world underway from west to Middle East
              – losing jobs to foreign competitors
                    • Since 1999 25% of manufacturing jobs lost to foreign competition*
                    • Between 2001 and 2003 (that’s 2 years), Goldman Sachs and Company estimates that 20% of
                      technology jobs have moved overseas, including sophisticated design and innovation jobs
              – Not leading in the global energy and climate debate
                    • Between 1990 and 2005 U.S. CO2 emissions rose by 1 billion tons (GT) to 7.2 GT/yr
                    • Between 2005 and 2030, additional growth of CO2 emissions will be 2.5 GT** (35%)
                    • U.S. faces growing energy needs and costs in all sectors: residential, commercial, industrial,
                      and Transportation
                    • U.S. faces progressive environmental policy discussion for future, Cap and Trade, higher CAFÉ
                      standards, renewables and conservation incentives, climate protocols, and NIMBY and
                      BANANA***




* 3    Managed by www.apolloalliance.org
    Apollo Alliance, UT-Battelle
** U.Sfor the U.S. Department ofEnergy Information Agency
        Department of Energy, Energy                                                                                   3
*** NIMBY: Not In My Back Yard; BANANA: Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything
                           U.S. energy consumption flow
                 Energy sources                                                                   Energy consumption
                                                            Electricity                             Industrial                                        Lost
                   Renewables                               generation
                    and Nuclear                                                                     14% electricity
                                                                                                                                                      energy
                                                                                                                                                      (from electricity
                                                            29% renewables                          33% gas
                                                                                                                                                      generation,
                   • 5.9%                                    & nuclear                              39% oil
                                                                                                                                                      transmission, and
                     Renewables                             70% fossil
                                                                                                                                                      distribution)
                                                             (coal & gas only)
                   • 8.1% Nuclear
                    14%                                   38%                                       24%                                           27%
                                                                                                    Residential
                     Fossil
                                                                                                    and Commercial
                     • 22.9% coal                                                                   45% electricity
                       (0% imported)                                                                41% gas
                     • 40.1% oil                                                                    12% oil
                       (>60% imported)
                     • 22.7% gas                                                                    20%
                       (16% imported)
                                                                                                    Transportation
                                                                                                    99% oil
% of Total
Energy Sources =      86%
2005 U.S. Energy Flows
 4 Managed by UT-Battelle
from: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
        for the U.S. Department of Energy                                                          28%                                                                    4
(Total U.S. energy sources = approximately 100 Quadrillion BTUs <=> 50 million railroad cars full of coal or 50 billion gas-tanks full of gasoline)
                  Net-Zero Neighborhood Model


                                                                       Cloud           •Take transportation
                                                                                       off the gasoline grid
                                                                                       And
                                Battery

                                                                                       •Take residential off
                             ESP
                             Solar
                                                                                       the grid


                                               grid                        grid




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     for the U.S. Department of Energy                                                                     5
Bio = biologically derived energy generation          Industrial scale-solar
                                                                                  Industrial scale-solar
                                                                                   Industrial Scale Wind
                                        Methodology


• Use Stella simulation software to create a dynamic
  model
• Represents energy consumption of population of
  300,000
• Prove Net-Zero neighborhood trend works
• Show lower CO2 emissions
• Show decrease in gasoline consumption




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    for the U.S. Department of Energy
    Net-Zero
    Neighborhoods
    and
    the Smart Grid                                                          500-mile batteries
                                                                                   Net-Zero
                                                                            Residential and ESPs




    • Incorporate the energy
      storage (e.g.,


                                         local smart grid




                                                                                                                   local smart grid
                                          E-Storage and




                                                                                                                    E-Storage and
                                                            National Grid




                                                                                                   National Grid
      batteries) into local
      smart grid
                                                                                Central
    • Electric transportation                                                   power
      becomes point to
      point mass transit

    • Net-zero
      neighborhoods use
      local generation

    • Energy service                                                               Net-Zero
                                                                            Commercial and ESPs
      providers net-zero
      neighborhoods along                                                   500-mile batteries
      with providing local
      generation
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     for the U.S. Department of Energy                                                                                                7
                                        Governing Equations


• Model as an initial value
  problem                                        dE   f * dt
                                                       k          i


• dEk = fi dt and solve using                                                         f ' ' (a)                   f n (a)
                                                 E (t )  E (a)  f ' (a) * (t  a)            * (t  a)  ... 
                                                                                                         2
                                                                                                                          * (t  a) n
  Euler’s method                                                                         2!                         n!

• Euler’s equation first terms of
  Taylor series expansion         E1  E0  hf (t0 , E0 ,...)
                                                  h  t1  t0
• Ek = energy
• fi = generation
• ti = time
• 24 hour time period

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    for the U.S. Department of Energy
Net-Zero Neighborhood Simulation
Map
                                                500-Mile Batteries
                                                     Net-Zero
                                                Residential & ESPs                                                               Gas           Nuclear      Coal
                                                                                                                    Oil

                                                                                                        Model
                                                                                                                                              Electricity
                                National Grid
            Local Smart Grid




                                                                                     Local Smart Grid
                                                                     National Grid
              E-Storage &




                                                                                       E-Storage &
                                                       Ce
                                                       ntr                                                       Commercial    Residential
                                                       al
                                                       Po
                                                       we
                                                        r                                                                                                     ESP
                                                                                                                                         Storage

                                                                                                                    Hybrid
                                                    Net-Zero
                                                Commercial & ESPs                                                                                      EV
                                                    500-Mile
                                                    Batteries




    •                     NZN = Local Storage + Local Generation
                           + Electrify Transportation
    •                   NZN integrates seamlessly with other energy generation plans and the
                        national grid




                                                                                                                Stella model


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        for the U.S. Department of Energy
                                         Stella model




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     for the U.S. Department of Energy
                                         Results




        Storage
     Consumption


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     for the U.S. Department of Energy
                                         Simulation Results




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     for the U.S. Department of Energy
                                    Discussion of Results


• Comparison between 2010 and 2030 were analyzed
  account 50 percent net-zero generation and 50 percent
  transportation
• Local storage switches all energy generation forms,
  e.g., solar and wind, into base load capacity
• At 50% market penetration
     – NZN reduces CO2 emissions by more than 50%
     – NZN can reduce oil imports by as much as 50%




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     for the U.S. Department of Energy
                                         Conclusion


• NZN effectively reduces U.S.:
     –      CO2 emissions and oil imports
     –      creates U.S. jobs in NZN locals
     –      national environmental sustainability goals
     –      energy security goals




14   Managed by UT-Battelle
     for the U.S. Department of Energy
                                         Future Work


• Develop more comprehensive model to include time
  zone, seasonal, and regional affects, and multiple year
• Investigate specific R&D options for 500-mile battery
  to electrify transportation and 50% efficient solar cells




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     for the U.S. Department of Energy
                                         Acknowledgements


• Dr. Gilbert Weigand, Debbie McCoy, Rashida Askia,
  Dr. Z.T. Deng, Alabama A&M University
• Office of science
• Oak Ridge National Laboratory
• Department of Energy




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     for the U.S. Department of Energy
                                         Questions




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     for the U.S. Department of Energy

				
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posted:11/22/2011
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