Recipes for Irrational Decisions
Cirrus Design Conference
Dr. Warren Jensen
UND Aerospace
Decision Bias
Bias isour preference, based on our prior
experience.
Itleads to subconscious assumptions, which
can impact the decision process.
As a result, we make decisions that seem
reasonable, but are later viewed as
Early information is considered more
important or accurate.
Early impressions have preference …
Humans seek more information than
they can absorb in a given time.
Humans tend not to extract enough
information from sources.
We consider all information to be
equally reliable, when it is not.
Evaluate your sources for reliability...
We usually consider only three or four
options at a time, rather than a larger
number.
We only consider only a few critical
aspects of the problem.
More information breeds
confidence in our decisions, not
more accurate decisions.
(Spin)
We tend to seek information that
confirms our choice and avoid
information that counters it.
We prefer to be right, like to prove it.
We appear to have less confidence in
evaluating and choosing alternatives.
Poor options are given
the ‘benefit of the doubt’.
What are the implications?
We need to understand and recognize decision
bias as it occurs.
‘What are we talking ourselves into here?’
How can we overcome bias?
Effective critique
Replay
Reconstruct
Reflect
Redirect
Summary
Human bias in information gathering and
decision-making is well known and
common.
Awareness of these biases will aid in avoiding
poor decisions.
Humans will develop strategies to most
comfortably address problems, and these
strategies may be inadequate.