Docstoc

CFA SOCIETY OF NASHVILLE

Document Sample
CFA SOCIETY OF NASHVILLE Powered By Docstoc
					CFA SOCIETY OF NASHVILLE
2008 Forecast Contest

DOW FORECAST:
The group was optimistic, with 82% of entries forecasting a higher close. (This excludes two
entries that forecast a close in the range of 1250-1500 – we hope they were thinking of the S&P
500!)

The average forecast was for an 11.0% increase from the 12,182.13 close on Feb. 8, with a
range from 11,381 (-6.6%) to 15,001 (+23.1%). The 2007 close was 13,264.82.


                   -10%                                                                 +10%                                 +20%




  <1500            11000                            12000                       13000                       14000                         15000




10-YEAR BOND FORECAST:
The group forecast a range from 3.00% to 5.15% for the 2008 close, compared to a 2/8/08 close
of 3.65% (2007 close was 4.03%). One-third of the entries forecast a lower yield at the end of
2008, while two-thirds thought yields would rise.




 3.0   3.1   3.2    3.3    3.4   3.5    3.6     3.7    3.8   3.9    4.0   4.1    4.2    4.3    4.4   4.5   4.6   4.7   4.8    4.9   5.0   5.1




CRUDE FORECAST:
Compared with a 2007 close of $91.90, 62% of the entries forecast a decline and 38% forecast
an increase. The range was $54.67 to $128.00, with an average forecast of $84.91.


             -40%           -30%              -20%           -10%                             +10%         +20%          +30%             +40%




 $50     $55       $60     $65    $70         $75     $80    $85      $90       $95    $100 $105 $110 $115 $120 $125 $130
LONG AND SHORT STOCK PICKS:

The stocks selected as long or short picks are listed below. Those with numbers next to them
were selected by multiple entrants.

Beazer Homes was the only company on both lists.

Long picks:                                         Short picks:
BZH      Beazer Homes                               AGN      Allergan
BIDZ     Bidz.com                                   ABK      Ambac Financial
CSIQ     Canadian Solar                             AAPL     Apple Computer (2)
CHLN     China Housing & Land Development           ADM      Archer Daniels Midland
CN       China Netcom Group Corp.                   ARMHY    Arm Holdings ADS
CMCSA    Comcast Cl A                               BIDU     Baidu.com
CZZ      Cozan Ltd                                  ABX      Barrick Gold
BOOM     Dynamic Materials                          BZH      Beazer Homes
FHN      First Horizon (2)                          BONT     Bon-Ton Stores
F        Ford Motor                                 CMG      Chipotle Mexican Grill (2)
GERN     Geron                                      CC       Circuit City Stores
INPH     Interphase Corp                            DSL      Downey Financial
JAX      J.Alexander's                              FDO      Family Dollar
KERX     Keryx Biopharmacuticals                    FSLR     First Solar (3)
LM       Legg Mason                                 FCL      Foundation Coal
MBI      MBIA                                       GHS      Gatehouse Media
MEA      Metalico                                   HOV      Hovnanian
NKTR     Nektar Therapeutics                        JOYG     Joy Global
NBIX     Neurocrine Biosciences                     LBY      Libbey
NXTM     Nxstage Medical                            PSQ      ProShares Short QQQQ ETF
PCAR     Paccar                                     PCU      Southern Copper Corp
PDGI     PharmaNet Development Group                GLD      StreetTracks Gold ETF (2)
RMBS     Rambus                                     TEVA     Teva Pharmaceutical
RWT      Redwood Trust                              TGIC     Triad Guaranty
S        Sprint Nextel Corp                         URE      Ultra Real Estate ProShares ETF
SMP      Standard Motor Products                    UCFC     United Community Financial Corp
VASC     Vascular Solutions
VIP      Vimpel Communications
WPL      W P Stewart & Co.
WMZ      Williams Pipeline Partners LLP

So far, the longs are being led by Rambus, Canadian Solar, Beazer, and Bidz.com, all up over
25%. The best shorts have been financials Triad Guaranty, Ambac Financial, and Downey
Financial, all down more than 40%.

Sadly, the shorts have thus far been a better long portfolio than the long picks, and by a wide
margin. A portfolio with one share of each long is down nearly 11% since the contest deadline,
while a portfolio with one share of each short is up over 21%.




Data as of April 9, 2008.

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:3
posted:11/20/2011
language:English
pages:2