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‹ Analysis & Projections


Short-Term Energy Outlook
Release Date: November 8, 2011 | Next Release Date: December 6, 2011 | Full Report
| Text Only | All Tables | All Figures

Glossary › FAQS ›

 Overview
 STEO Report
  Highlights
  Prices
  Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels
  U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels
  Natural Gas
  Coal
 Electricity
 Renewables and CO2 Emissions
Data
 Figures
 Tables
 Custom Table Builder
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 Forecast Changes (PDF)
Special Analysis
Price Uncertainty


Highlights
EIA expects the U.S. average refiner acquisition cost of crude oil to remain relatively flat,
averaging about $100 per barrel in 2011 and 2012. The value of West Texas Intermediate
(WTI) benchmark crude oil was about $11 per barrel below the U.S. refiner acquisition
cost of crude oil in the third quarter of this year. The forecast WTI price discount narrows
to $8 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2012, as rail and truck capacity is added to the
region.

EIA’s U.S. and world economic growth assumptions have been lowered from last month’s
Outlook. World oil-consumption-weighted real GDP grows by 3.1 percent in 2012,
compared with 3.5 percent in the previous Outlook.


EIA projects that average household heating expenditures for heating oil and propane
will increase by 10 percent and 9 percent, respectively, this winter (October 1 to March
31) compared with last winter. Average expenditures for households that heat with oil or
propane are forecast to be higher than in any previous winter. In contrast, natural gas
and electricity expenditures are projected to remain close to last year’s levels.

Regular-grade gasoline retail prices have fallen by 46 cents per gallon from their peak
monthly average this year of $3.91 per gallon for May to $3.45 per gallon for October.
This drop in prices results from falling crude oil prices as well as the normal seasonal
decline in consumption and the switch in production from summer-grade gasoline to
lower-cost winter-grade gasoline. EIA projects gasoline retail prices to continue to
decline, albeit slightly, through the end of the year.


Natural gas working inventories ended October 2011 at an estimated 3.8 trillion cubic
feet (Tcf), about 1 percent below the same time last year. The projected Henry Hub
natural gas spot price averages $4.09 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2011,
$0.30 per MMBtu lower than the 2010 average, and $4.13 per MMBtu in 2012.

                           November 2011 STEO Errata
There were two errors in the 3rd quarter 2011 international balance that affected
STEO Tables 3a and 3b and Figures 8 and 12. Non-OPEC Central & S. America
crude oil and liquid fuels production was overstated by an average 1.5 million
barrels per day during July and August 2011. In addition, OECD commercial stocks
were overstated by 24 million barrels in August 2011 and all subsequent months
through the end of the forecast.

Updated: November 8, 2011, 4:00PM

                                        Price Summary
                                         2009     2010    2011 projected    2012 projected
a
    West Texas Intermediate.
b
    Average regular pump price.
c
    On-highway retail.
d
    U.S. Residential average.
    WTI Crudea
    (dollars per barrel)                  61.65    79.4              93.8            91.13
             b
    Gasoline
    (dollars per gallon)                   2.35    2.78              3.54              3.46
    Dieselc
    (dollars per gallon)                   2.46    2.99              3.84              3.79
                     d
    Heating Oil
    (dollars per gallon)                   2.51    2.96              3.73              3.77
    Natural Gasd
    (dollars per thousand cubic feet)     12.12   11.19            10.97             11.56
                 d
    Electricity
    (cents per kilowatt hour)             11.51   11.58            11.77             11.92

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About the Short-Term Energy Outlook

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Previous STEO Forecasts:
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