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					                                             Global Research Limited




COMMODITY
Market




Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011




REPORT
WEEKLY
                        Analyst Speak
                        Precious Metals Settle
                        Lower On Firm Us Dollar


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 Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011                                                                                                                                                                Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011




 Economic Data                                                                               Fundamental Market Overview
  Date      Time       Currency       Economic Data                    Forecast   Previous   Market                            GOLD POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY LOSS SINCE SEPT
                                                                                             watch
   Mon                                                                                       Gold tracked equity markets to end slightly higher on Friday, even           its value as a hedge against turmoil, however. Over the past few weeks,
           8:30pm        USD      Existing Home Sales                   4.82M      4.91M
  Nov 21                                                                                     though persistent euro zone debt worries and margin liquidation from         Gold has confounded market watchers by tracking equities, even as the
                                                                                             other markets sent bullion to its largest weekly loss since September.       European debt crisis escalated. U.S. December Gold futures settled up
   Tue     7:00pm        USD      Prelim GDP q/q                         2.5%       2.5%     Bullion regained its footing after Thursday's sell-off, climbing above key   $4.90 at $1,725.10 an ounce. Trading volume has exceeded its 30-day
  Nov 22                                                                                     chart support at its 50-day moving average, a level it breached during       norm for a third straight session, reversing a slower trend in the past
           7:00pm        USD      Prelim GDP Price Index q/q             2.5%       2.5%     the previous session. Gold lost 3.5 percent this week, its worst             several months. Bullion investor sentiment also improved after a
                                                                                             performance in nearly two months. Spot Gold edged down 0.2 percent           Thursday report by the industry-funded World Gold Council showed
                                                                                             at $1,724.40 an ounce. In the previous session, bullion fell 2.5 percent     central bank buying reached nearly 150 tonnes. Among other previous
           8:30pm        USD      Richmond Manufacturing Index            -2         -6      and hit a 2-1/2-week low at $1,709.64 an ounce. This week's more than        metal, spot silver gained 1.8 percent to $32.26 an ounce after
                                                                                             3 percent slump has turned the tables on a bullion market that had once      Thursday's near 7 percent drop. Platinum rose 0.5 percent to $1,585.74
           11:30pm       USD      FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks                            again begun rising toward September's all-time high -- not because of        an ounce and palladium fell 0.9 percent to $600.10 an ounce.

   Wed     12:30am       USD      FOMC Meeting Minutes
  Nov 23
           7:00pm        USD      Core Durable Goods Orders m/m          0.1%      1.8%      Market                            NYMEX-CRUDE ENDS DOWN ON PROFIT-TAKING AS DEC EXITS
                                                                                             watch
           7:00pm        USD      Unemploy ment Claims                   387K       388K
                                                                                             U.S. Crude futures fell for a second straight day on Friday as an early      Speculators increased their net long positions in U.S. Crude oil and
                                                                                             rally due to a weaker dollar faded, giving way to profit-taking as traders   options by 12,210 contracts, to 216,075, in the week to Nov. 15, the
           7:00pm        USD      Core PCE Price Index m/m               0.2%       0.0%     liquidated December positions before the contract expired at the close.      highest level since June. U.S. October oil demand rose as the economy
                                                                                             For the week, U.S. Crude futures finished with their first weekly loss in    showed some signs of growth, but gasoline consumption remained
           7:00pm        USD      Durable Goods Orders m/m              -1.1%      -0.6%     seven as the market tested key technical trend lines following six weeks     week, the American Petroleum Institute said. A possible global
                                                                                             of gains. In early trading, prices rose back to above $100 as the euro       economic slowdown driven by Europe's sovereign debt crisis will not
           7:00pm        USD      Personal Spending m/m                  0.4%       0.6%     gained on talk that the European Central Bank and the International          dent demand for oil, Khalid Al Falih, chief executive of Saudi Aramco,
                                                                                             Monetary Fund would bail out bigger European economies. But                  Saudi Arabia's national oil company, said.
           7:00pm        USD      Personal Income m/m                    0.3%       0.1%     skepticism on how that might work soon set in and liquidations in the        UPCOMING DATA/EVENTS
                                                                                             December Crude contract accelerated, shifting the market's direction         U.S. existing home sales for October from the National Association
                                                                                             lower. December Crude posted the week's high of $103.37 on
           8:25pm        USD      Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment         64.6       64.2     Thursday, highest intraday since May 31, and dropped to the week's
                                                                                                                                                                          of Realtors, 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT), Monday
                                                                                             low at $96.70 on Friday.
           8:25pm        USD      Revised UoM Inflation Expectations                3.2%
                                                                                             FUNDAMENTALS
           9:00pm        USD      Crude Oil Inventories                            -1.1M     On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December Crude expired and
                                                                                             settled at $97.41 a barrel, falling $1.41, or 1.43 percent. Front-month
           10:30pm       USD      Natural Gas Storage                               19B      NYMEX Crude dipped $1.58, or 1.6 percent, for the week. NYMEX
                                                                                             January Crude, the new front-month, finished at $97.67 a barrel, taking
                                                                                             a loss of $1.26, or 1.27 percent, and widening its discount against its
   Thu     Tentative     USD      Treasury Currency Report                                   counterpart Brent Crude to $9.89, from $9.29 on Thursday.
  Nov 24
            All Day      USD      Bank Holiday

                                                                                             Market                            COPPER FALLS UNDER WEIGHT OF EUROPEAN DEBT WOES
                                                                                             watch
                                                                                             Copper posted its third consecutive weekly loss on Friday, reflecting an     than 20 percent. Copper initially rose in line with the euro after news
                                                                                             uneasy tone in global equities and mounting fears that the debt crisis in    that the European Central Bank will lend to the International Monetary
                                                                                             Europe could spread and crimp demand for industrial metals. Copper           Fund to bail out bigger euro zone economies.
                                                                                             prices managed to stabilize in after-hours business as Wall Street           FUNDAMENTALS
                                                                                             tacked on some late gains and the dollar eased. However, a bearish           In a sign that demand could be picking up, Copper inventories in
                                                                                             breakdown below two key lines of technical support this week could           warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 11.0
                                                                                             keep the pressure on in the days ahead, especially as Europe remains         percent from last Friday.
                                                                                             in the headlines and Copper's robust fundamentals continue to take a         LME Copper stockpiles fell by 1,375 tonnes to 398,250 tonnes, their
                                                                                             backseat. London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark Copper eased                 lowest level since February. Ongoing supply-side threats offered
                                                                                             $20 to end at $7,525 a tonne. After the close, prices pushed back into       some support. BNP Paribas on Friday cut its 2012 price forecast for
                                                                                             positive territory, above $7,550, as U.S. equity markets held on to          most base metals, but forecast a broad price recovery in the year
                                                                                             gains. In New York, the key December COMEX contract settled up 1.95          due to firm demand in emerging countries, supply constraints, cost
                                                                                             cents at $3.4020 per lb, near the upper end of its $3.3310 to $3.4405        issues and loose monetary conditions.
                                                                                             session range, but below its 50-day moving average and a weeks-long
                                                                                             ascending triangle formation.
                                                                                             Futures volumes continued to run more thinly than usual this week, with
                                                                                             close to 45,000 lots traded as of late Friday in New York, down more




[2]                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            [3]
 Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011                                                                                                                                                                                            Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011




 GOLD                                                                                                                                    SILVER




                                                                                                                          Weekly Chart




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Weekly Chart
  Expert                                                                                                                                 Expert
  Observation                                                                                                                            Observation


      MARKET OVERVIEW                                                                      WEEKLY PIVOTS                                 MARKET OVERVIEW                                                                       WEEKLY PIVOTS
      COMEX Gold is in a technically consolidating on                                        Script     Levels                           COMEX Silver is technically in a slightly upward in                                     Script      Levels
      charts for short term. Last week COMEX Gold was                                         R3         1924                            short term. Last week COMEX Silver was trading in                                         R3         4074
      trading on downside and closed near to its week                                         R2         1833                            a range for the whole week. For the upcoming week                                         R2         3674
      low. In the coming week 1600$ will act as a major                                       R1         1775                            3000$ and 2800$ are the crucial supports and                                              R1         3458
      support in COMEX Gold and 1840$ will act as a                                           PP         1743                            3800$ and 4100$ are crucial resistance in COMEX                                           PP         3275
      major resistance.                                                                       S1         1689                            Silver. In MCX Silver, 62000 and 65000 will act as                                        S1         3058
                                                                                              S2         1652                            major resistance and 52000 and 48000 will act as                                          S2         2875
                                                                                              S3         1562                            major supports.                                                                           S3         2476




      STRATEGY                                                                                                                           STRATEGY
      For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains below 1720 $ an ounce, then                 Technically COMEX Silver is consolidating on charts. For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy if
      below 1710 $ it can test the level of 1690$/1670$/1645$ $ an ounce. And in MCX Gold below 28400 it can test the level              Silver sustains below the level of 3160$ an ounce, then below 3120$ COMEX Silver can test the level of
      of 28200/28010/27800. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses.                                                                     3060/3006/2970$ an ounce. And in MCX Silver sustains below54500 then it can test the level of 53000/52000/51000,
                                                                                                                                         Trade by keeping the proper stop losses.
      Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1640$ and 1580$.
      Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1840$ and 1900$
      Major support in MCX Gold is 28000and 27100




[4]                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               [5]
 Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011                                                                                                                                                                                              Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011




 CRUDE                                                                                                                                        COPPER



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            330




                                                                                                                               Weekly Chart




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Weekly Chart
  Expert                                                                                                                                      Expert
  Observation                                                                                                                                 Observation


      MARKET OVERVIEW                                                                         WEEKLY PIVOTS                                   MARKET OVERVIEW                                                                   WEEKLY PIVOTS
      NYMEX Crude is in consolidation phase. Last week                                           Script     Levels                            Copper is in a consolidation phase and traders                                       Script         Levels
      Crude Oil was able to sustain at higher levels and                                          R3        112.59                            should use the strategy of buy on lower levels. Last                                  R3            394.90
      close near to week high. For the coming week 85$                                            R2        105.92                            week COMEX Copper was down for most part of                                           R2            369.40
      and 80 $ will act as major supports and 104$ and                                            R1        101.79                            week. If next week COMEX Copper sustains above                                        R1            354.80
      106$ a barrel will be a major resistance in NYMEX                                           PP         99.25                            the level of 349 then above the level of 352 Copper                                   PP            344.00
      Crude. In MCX Crude Oil major resistance is found                                           S1         95.12                            can test the level of 357/362/367. In MCX, Copper                                     S1            329.40
      at 5200 and 5400 and major supports will be 4600                                            S2         92.58                            sustains above 395 then it can test the level of                                      S2            318.50
      and 4350.                                                                                   S3         85.91                            399/404/409 if it does not break the level of 385 on                                  S3            293.10
                                                                                                                                              the downside.




      STRATEGY                                                                                                                                STRATEGY
      For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains below the level of 102 $ a                     For the upcoming week 375 and 395 will act as major resistance and 330 and 310 will act as major supports in COMEX
      barrel then below the level of 97.50 $ a barrel it can test the level of 95.5$/94.0$ a barrel and in MCX if Crude sustains              Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 415 and 425 and supports would be found at 375and 355.
      below 4940 then below 4890 it can test the level of 4830/4770/4720 in this week. Trade by keeping the proper stop
      loss.




[6]                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               [7]
 Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011                                                                                                                                                                                 Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011




 NATURAL GAS                                                                                                                        USD / INR

                                                                                                  4.300




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    47.50
                                                                                           3.200




                                                                                                                     Weekly Chart




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Weekly Chart
  Expert                                                                                                                            Expert
  Observation                                                                                                                       Observation


      MARKET OVERVIEW                                                                  WEEKLY PIVOTS                                MARKET OVERVIEW                                                                 WEEKLY PIVOTS
      Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use                     Script      Levels                         USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can                                 Script    Levels
      the strategy of selling on higher levels. Last week Natural Gas                     R3         3.921                          use the strategy of buy on lower levels. If next week                              R3       53.8800
      was down for most part of the week and close near to its week                       R2         3.653                          USD/INR sustains above the level of 51.2500 then                                   R2       52.3600
      low. If next week Natural Gas sustains below the level of 3.280 $                   R1         3.484                          above the level of 51.4000 USD/INR can test the                                    R1       51.7900
      then below the level of 3.260 $ Natural Gas can test the level of                   PP         3.385                          level of 51.5500/51.7000                                                           PP       50.8400
      3.200$/3.110 $ and above 3.450$ Natural Gas can go up and                           S1         3.216                                                                                                             S1       50.2700
      test the level of 3.530/3.610 $. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains                    S2         3.117                                                                                                             S2       49.3200
      below 170 in the coming week then it can test the level of                          S3         2.849                                                                                                             S3       47.8000
      167/162/158, if it does not break the level of 178 on the upside.




      STRATEGY                                                                                                                      STRATEGY
      For the upcoming week 3.100$ and 2.750$ will act as major supports and 4.150$ and 4.450$ will act as major                    For the upcoming week 49.0000 and 47.3000 will act as major supports and 51.8000 and 52.9000 will act as major
      resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance would be 205 and 215, supports would be found              resistance in USD/INR.
      at 165 and 155.




[8]                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 [9]
  Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011                                                                                                            Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011




  Weekly Market Update
                                                                                                                    Commodity Watch

                                                                                                                                                             Weekly
         Symbol      Exchange     Expiry      Commodity                     Previous    Open     High                       Qty.               Open
                                                               Price Unit                                 Low     Close             Net                     TurnOver *
                                   Date         Name                         Close                                         Traded             Interest
                                                                                                                                                          (Rs. in Lakhs)

         GOLD             MCX    5-DEC -11      GOLD          RS. /10GM.     28886     28930    29212    28272    28704    246878    -182       11379        7081829.72


         SILVER           MCX    5-DEC -11      SILVER        RS. / KG.      57694     57900    58338    53728    55850    379228   -1844       13670        6377611.68


         COPPER           MCX    30-NOV -11     COPPER        RS. / KG.       384.5      385    396.15    381.1   388.75   764764    4.25       18237        2963594.54


         CRUDE OIL        MCX    19-DEC -11     CRUDE OIL     RS. / BBL.      4930      4934     5244     4896     5024    638706     94        31855        3223914.30


         NATURAL GAS      MCX    25-NOV -11     NATURAL GAS   RS./ MM BTU     180.1     179.8    179.8    170.6    172.5   234244    -7.6       22274         509378.11


         LEAD             MCX    30-NOV -11     LEAD          RS. / KG.        99.9    100.25    105.4   100.25   105.45   76693     5.55        3234         385511.06

         ZINC             MCX    30-NOV -11     ZINC          RS. / KG.        96.6      97.1    100.8    96.95    100.6   81506          4      3461         397822.92


         NICKEL           MCX    30-NOV -11     NICKEL        RS. / KG.       918.4     919.4    934.3     896     921.9   300451     3.5       12275         682920.82


         ALUMINIUM        MCX    30-NOV -11     ALUMINIUM     RS. / KG.       107.9     108.3   109.45    105.9    108.1   33311      0.2        1303         178698.82

                                                                                                                                                        * Turnover Till Friday




[ 10 ]                                                                                                                                                                           [ 11 ]
  Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011                                                                                                                                                                                                             Week : 21st to 25th Nov'2011




  Weekly Market Update
                                                                                                                                                                                     Commodity Watch
    International Market                                                                                    Weekly Pivots
            Commodity                         Closing Price            % Change                                    Scripts                                R3                      R2                      R1                    PP                    S1                  S2                 S3

            GOLD                                1725.1                    -3.52                                      GOLD                             30609.33             29669.33             29186.67            28729.33              28246.67              27789.33              26849.33

            SILVER                                3242                    -6.52                                      SILVER                           65192.00             60582.00             58216.00            55972.00              53606.00              51362.00              46752.00

            COPPER                               340.2                    -1.78                                      COPPER                                418.77              403.72               396.23              388.67                381.18                373.62                 358.57

            CRUDE                                97.67                    -1.23                                      CRUDE                              5750.67              5402.67              5213.33             5054.67               4865.33               4706.67               4358.67

            NATURAL GAS                          3.316                    -7.48                                      NATURAL GAS                           192.70              183.50               178.00              174.30                168.80                165.10                 155.90

            USD/INR                              51.23                    2.46                                       LEAD                                  114.00              108.85               107.15              103.70                102.00                  98.55                 93.40

                                                                                                                     ZINC                                  107.15              103.30               101.95                99.45                 98.10                 95.60                 91.75

                                                                                                                     NICKEL                                994.00              955.70               938.80              917.40                900.50                879.10                 840.80

                                                                                                                     ALLUMINIUM                            114.92              111.37               109.73              107.82                106.18                104.27                 100.72




         Weekly Gainers                                       Weekly Losers                                 Disclaimer
                                                                                                             The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or
                       Expiry       Closing     %                                 Expiry   Closing   %       opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most.
         Commodity                                            Commodity
                       Date          Price    Change                              Date      Price  Change    Investment in Stocks has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis
                                                                                                             and up on sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are
          LEAD        30 NOV,2011   105.45     5.56           NATURAL GAS 25 NOV,2011 172.50       -4.22     not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it & take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations
                                                                                                             above.
          ZINC        30 NOV,2011   100.60     4.14           SILVER        05 DEC,2011    55850   -3.20     The stock price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change
          CRUDE OIL 19 DEC,2011     5024       1.91           GOLD          05 DEC,2011    28704   -0.63     without notice.

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