CSCI 1210 Joseph
Exponential Economic Growth Model (US economy)
Note: please do NOT copy another student's wor
Parameters Dan if you do not find your personalized workboo
GNP, 2000 ###### million
Population, 2000 272 million
Nominal GNP growth rate 2.80%
Price growth rate 1.70% (inflation rate) Target 2050 real per capita GNP:
Population growth rate 0.80% 90120
Nominal GNP doubling time:
Nominal Price Real Nominal GNP
Year GNP level GNP Population per capita Real GNP per capita
2000 9,692,000 1.00 272 35,632
2001 9,963,376
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
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2050
Joseph
copy another student's workbook! Ask Dr
your personalized workbook.
050 real per capita GNP:
GNP doubling time:
l GNP per capita
CSCI 1210
Logarithmic transformations of projected data
Real
GNP GNP
Real per per
Year GNP GNP capita capita
2000 6.99
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
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2014
2015
2016
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2019
2020
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CSCI 1210
US Nominal and Real GDP, 1929-2003 Historical data: www.econstats.com
Parameters
Average nominal GDP increase per year 1%
Average real GDP increase per year 1%
Historical Data Exponential Model
Year Nominal Real Nominal Real
1929 103.6
1930 91.2
1931 76.5
1932 58.7
1933 56.4
1934 66
1935 73.3
1936 83.8
1937 91.9
1938 86.1
1939 92.2
1940 101.4
1941 126.7
1942 161.9
1943 198.6
1944 219.8
1945 223.1
1946 222.3
1947 244.2
1948 269.2
1949 267.3
1950 293.8
1951 339.3
1952 358.3
1953 379.4
1954 380.4
1955 414.8
1956 437.5
1957 461.1
1958 467.2
1959 506.6
1960 526.4
1961 544.7
1962 585.6
1963 617.7
1964 663.6
1965 719.1
1966 787.8
1967 832.6
1968 910
1969 984.6
1970 1038.5
1971 1127.1
1972 1238.3
1973 1382.7
1974 1500
1975 1638.3
1976 1825.3
1977 2030.9
1978 2294.7
1979 2563.3
1980 2789.5
1981 3128.4
1982 3255
1983 3536.7
1984 3933.2
1985 4220.3
1986 4462.8
1987 4739.5
1988 5103.8
1989 5484.4
1990 5803.1
1991 5995.9
1992 6337.7
1993 6657.4
1994 7072.2
1995 7397.7
1996 7816.9
1997 8304.3
1998 8747
1999 9268.4
2000 9817
2001 10100.8
2002 10480.8
2003 10983.9
constats.com
CSCI 1210
Budget deficit worksheet
Parameters This worksheet assumes a contstant budget deficit
in dollar terms. Interest comes out of consumption
Initial GDP (billions)##### and does not affect the deficit (that is, we are not
Initial Debt (billions)$7,112 borrowing the interest on our debt). Note that the
Deficit (billions) $500 debt as a fraction of GDP will decrease over time.
GDP growth rate 2%
Interest rate 4%
Year Deficit Debt Interest GDP Deficit/GDP Debt/GDP Interest/GDP
2004
CSCI 1210
Budget deficit worksheet
Parameters
Initial GDP (billions) $10,396 This worksheet assumes deficts are
Initial Debt (billions) $7,112 a constant percentage of GDP
Deficit as Pct of GDP 20.00%
GDP growth rate 4%
Interest rate 4%
Year Deficit Debt Interest GDP Debt/GDP Interest/GCP
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
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2044
2045
2046
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2051
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2054
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2057
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2060
2061
2062
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2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
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2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
Under what circumstances will the Debt to GDP ratio decrease?
Under what circumstances will this ratio increase?
CSCI 1210
Social Security worksheet
Parameters
Initial Payment per retiree $9,203
Initial income per worker $33,252.09
Expense per retiree growth rate 2.00%
Worker income growth rate 3%
Year Workers/Retiree Payment per retiree SS Cost per worker
2000 4.65
2010 4.49
2015 3.99
2020 3.45
2025 2.97
2030 2.67
2035 2.58
2040 2.61
2045 2.65
2050 2.65
Worker income SS Cost as Pct of worker income