THE “ENERGY CRISIS”
A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL PROBLEM
WITH NO SIMPLE SOLUTIONS
Presented by Gerald Witt
At Vanderbilt University
October 2008
WHAT IS MEANT BY “ENERGY CRISIS” IN
CURRENT DISCUSSIONS?
• Is it the recent increase in the price of oil?
• Is it a shortage of domestic and imported oil supplies?
• Is it the insecurity of our oil imports? (Troubled sources)
• Is it the call to drill for oil off shore and in ANWR?
• Is it the increase of air pollution, global warming and other
environmental impacts of fossil fuel use?
• Is it the call for conservation and more efficient use of energy?
• Is it the call for increased use of renewable, sustainable energy
options?
It is all of the above and more. This is a complex, critically
important issue with no simple or singular solution
OUR APPROACH TODAY
We will:
- review key background facts defining the
energy situation
- discuss constraints and impacts
associated with current practices and
future policies
- survey emerging and potential energy
supply and demand options and describe
one key energy policy element
IS THIS THE FIRST US ENERGY CRISIS?
- RECALL OCT 1973
• For nearly 100 years, US, British and Dutch oil
companies controlled oil prices to producing
nations at about $2/barrel. ($20, 2007 US $)
• During the Yom Kippur War, OPEC members
placed an oil embargo on countries supporting
Israel in the conflict – particularly the US and
Netherlands.
• OPEC prices were increased by 17% - to
$3.65/barrel - and production cut by 25%, then
by a further 5%.
• The embargo ended in March 1974
US REACTIONS TO THESE EVENTS
- President Nixon decided not to light the
national Christmas tree
- Year-round daylight savings hours were
imposed
- 55 mph speed limit imposed on highways
- Implemented even-odd days for gas with
selected rationing in some regions
- Average automobile fuel economy
standards imposed by Congress
- Cabinet-level Department of Energy created
US imported 28% of domestic oil needs in 1973, 60% today.
THE 1979 ENERGY CRISIS
• The Iranian revolution resulted in greatly
reduced oil production from that country
• Despite production increases by other OPEC
producers, an oil price panic set in
• In US, oil prices increased to ~$40/bbl, the
highest real price until March 2008
• In DEC 79 President Jimmy Carter addressed
the country wearing a sweater: called for
lower thermostat settings; installed solar
power panels on the White House roof
(removed by Pres. Reagan); had a wood
burning stove put in the family living quarters.
• In 1980 a Synthetic Fuels Corp. was
established to produce petroleum from
alternative sources (oil shale, tar sands, etc.)
WHAT IS THE CURRENT OVERALL
US ENERGY SITUATION?
Let us look at the U.S. energy flow chart
(circa 2006)
Warning - details ahead
SELECTIVE ENERGY FACTS TO PUT THE US
PICTURE IN A GLOBAL CONTEXT
• It has taken the world 125 years to use the first
trillion barrels of oil; it probably will take 30 years to
use the next trillion. (Chevron ad)
• It costs approximately $1 per barrel to extract oil in
the Arabian peninsula (Compare: import prices
>$100/bbl, early 2008)
• The US with 5% of the world’s population consumes
over 25% of the world’s oil while having about 3% of
estimated world reserves
• The US energy consumption per capita is over 2X
that in Europe, 3x that in Japan
• Only Canada among industrialized countries
exceeds the US in the amount of energy consumed
per unit of GDP
• Exploration began in 1960; discovery in March 1968
• Trans Alaska oil pipeline completed June 1977
• Est. 2 billion recoverable barrels remained as of June 2006
A CURRENT POLITICAL ISSUE
– DRILLING IN ANWR
• Initiating production would require 7-10 years.
• At peak production, the output would likely amount
to less than 2% of US consumption
• Over the 50-year life cycle of ANWR oil, the extracted
oil would likely produce less than the US now
consumes in 6 months.
• The amount of economically recoverable oil in
ANWR would increase world reserves by an estimated
0.3% (US government).
COAL AS AN ENERGY SOURCE
– Coal provides 23% of current US energy
– 90% of coal use is to generate electricity, providing
55% of total electricity generation
– US proven coal reserves are the world’s largest,
some 27% of the total
– This reserve represents over 100 years US supply
– The US is a modest net exporter of coal
– Coal consumption for electricity generation
accounts for over 30% of all US CO2 emissions
– Significant environmental challenges exist for every
phase of coal extraction and use
Renewable Energy Technologies
• Solar
• Wind
• Biomass
• Conventional Hydroelectric
current options
-----------------------------------------------------------------
emerging options
• Wave Energy
• Tidal Energy
Biomass Resources
• Energy Crops
– Woody crops (e.g., hybrid poplar)
– Agricultural crops (e.g., corn, sugar cane)
• Waste Products
– Wood residues
– Temperate crop wastes
– Tropical crop wastes
– Animal wastes
– Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)
– Commercial and industrial wastes
http://www.eere.energy.gov/RE/bio_resources.html
AN OPTION NOT YET INTRODUCED
• Beyond renewable energy resources and
policies that would promote their
introduction and use, there is a major
energy policy component –a ‘hidden’
energy resource, if you will - not yet
discussed.
• To introduce this ‘resource’, let us look
again at the US energy flow diagram.
The energy needed to cool a new home in CA has declined by
2/3 although new homes are about 50% larger than in 1975.
EFFICIENCY AND TRANSPORTATION
• Passenger cars use more than 40% of the oil consumed
in the US and are major air pollution sources.
• In 1975, US light-vehicle average fuel economy was 14
mpg; in 1987, it was 28 mpg for new cars and 22 mpg for
new pickup trucks. (In 2007, US fleet ave. was 19.8)
• Every 10% reduction in car weight improves fuel
efficiency by (5-7)%
• Raising fuel standards to 40 mpg would save car
owners $(3000-5000) over the life of the car. Annual oil
savings by 2015 would be 15%, 39% by 2020.
• Using hybrid vehicle technology enables a 55 mpg
standard, as the Honda Insight and Toyota Prius show.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I have borrowed charts and data prepared by:
– The staff of the National Renewal Energy
Laboratory (DOE/NREL)
– Prof. George Whitesides, Harvard University
– Dr. Arthur Rosenfeld, DOE/LBNL
– Amory Lovins, The Rocky Mountain Institute
– Wikipedia
BACKUP
ENERGY EFFICIENT GLAZING
• On 10/15/08, NPR broadcast a special
report on energy efficient glass for
buildings. The top photo is taken from the
NPR website.
• Such glass reduces exterior heat input
into the conditioned space while impeding
the loss of building heat. (~30% energy
savings)
• Despite having floor-ceiling glass, the
building in question has been awarded
LEED Platinum certification.
• This building directly faces our condo
(bottom photo from our living room) which has
the same glazing system.