China and the Olympics:
Implications for Human Rights
Remarks to
The American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong
John Kamm
The Dui Hua Foundation
June 7, 2007
When Last We Met . . .
Source: International Herald
Tribune, June 22, 2001
China’s Human Rights Diplomacy
Since 1990, Beijing has made human rights
concessions to attain policy goals
Under Deng, to secure MFN and PNTR in US market
Under Jiang, to enter WTO and improve US-China
relations post 9/11
Under Hu, to deflect 2005 UN resolution on China
human rights
Sometimes concessions not made, goals not
met (not sole reason)
Under Jiang and Hu, none made to get EU arms
embargo lifted
Under Hu, none made for US visit in 2006
Concessions Made,
Concessions Unmade
Examples of human rights concessions
Political prisoner releases
Prisoner accounting
HR dialogues and exchanges
MOU with US on prison labor
Increased access to detention centers, prisons
Expert talks on VOA jamming
Expert talks on parole for counterrevolutionaries
Talks on Tibet with Dalai Lama representatives
Once goals reached, concessions often undone
Craner’s List
Political Prisoners Political Prisoners
on Craner List not on Craner List
Released Early 27 (45%) 13 (14%)
Released at
15 (25%) 36 (40%)
end of Sentence
Sentence Reduction,
4 (7%) 6 (7%)
Still in Prisoner
No Reduction, Still in Prison 13 (22%) 33 (37%)
Died in Prison 1 (2%) 1 (1%)
Total 60 89
Source: Dui Hua Prisoner Database
1) Prisoners as of September 30, 2001; status as of August 1, 2006.
2) Facilities are prisoners and RTL camps, not detention centers.
3) Political crimes covered are counterrevolution, hooliganism, pre-97 state secrets,
endangering state security, Article 300.
4) All information from official Chinese government sources.
Playing the Game
China shows more attention to world opinion
Bans trade in transplanted organs
Announces climate change plan
Keeps ban on trade in tiger parts
Concessions must never undermine CCP rule
De minimus: As few, as late as possible
When goals met, concessions stop, backtracking begins
After 15 years of accepting prisoner lists, MOJ rejects
Prison access for ICRC, promised in 1993, yet to happen
Even so, positive impact can last
Prison Law passed after ICRC access promise
Ministries want own HR programs not organized by MFA
Staging Successful Olympics Top Priority
Defining success as . . .
Most medals (and most gold medals)
Showing off modern, high-tech infrastructure
Promoting “peaceful rise,” “harmonious society”
Avoiding or containing disruptions
History, though, not kind to Olympic hosts
1968 Mexico City (massacre, “Black Power” protests)
1972 Munich (killing of Israeli athletes)
1976 Montreal (financial mismanagement, bankruptcy)
1980 and 1984 Moscow and LA: boycotts
More recent games plagued by doping scandals
China’s Biggest Problem: Poor Image
China unpopular with people of Olympic powers 1
China’s influence negative 46% vs. 35% positive
38% trust China vs. 58% who don’t
87% of Americans view Chinese govt negatively, but
79% of Americans view Chinese people positively 2
Poor image will be exploited by pressure groups
Could lead to low attendance, poor TV ratings
1. Note: Olympic powers are top ten medal winners in 2004, minus China.
2. Source: UPI/Zogby Poll, May 2007, 5,141 US adults (MOE 1.4%).
Do You Trust China to Act Responsibly?
37%
United States
58%
59%
Australia
39%
22%
France
76%
35%
Russia
56%
38%
South Korea
61%
Olympic Countries 38%
Average 58%
Yes
All Countries 38%
No
Average 52%
Source: Polling of samples in 18 countries covering 56% of world population.
Polls conducted from 6/2006 to 5/2007 by Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs.
Is China’s Influence in World Positive?
Yes
No
59% 58%
53%
48% 49%
46%
44% 43%
38% 39%
34% 34% 35%
31% 32% 32%
30%
25%
United Russia Australia Germany France Italy South United Average
States Korea Kingdom
Source: BBC Poll samples of varying size, conducted 11/2006 to 1/2007.
Reasons for Poor Image in West
Support for Sudanese government
Mia Farrow editorial, Hollywood joins in
Tom Toles cartoon on “Genocide Olympics”
Publicized human rights abuses including
Internet censorship
Jailing of journalists, human rights defenders
Suppression of minorities in Tibet, Xinjiang
Widespread use of capital punishment
Severe environmental degradation
Trade policies threaten jobs, economic well-being
China and the Death Penalty
Source: Third World Congress against the Death Penalty.
What Could Go Wrong?
Conflict in Taiwan Straits
Pollution affects health of athletes, performance
Use of previously unknown performance enhancers
Protests at home and abroad
Games could be magnet for “mass incidents”
Torch run likely to face disruption
58% of Americans support using Games for protests
80% of Americans oppose Chinese crackdown
Threat of boycott low
78% of Americans oppose boycotting games
72% oppose boycotting sponsors’ products
Support for boycott somewhat higher in Europe
True to Form
China has already made several concessions
Death penalty reform
“No executions in sports stadiums”
Since Games awarded, executions have dropped by 40%
Darfur
Appointment of Special Envoy
Support for limited sanctions
Leaning on Sudan “behind the scenes”
Revised regulations allow journalists more access
US public skeptical reforms will be permanent
Estimates of Executions in China
1997-2006
Year Executions
1997 12,000–15,000
1998 12,000–15,000
1999 12,000–15,000
2000 12,000–15,000
2001 13,500
2002 13,500
2003 12,000
2004 10,000
2005 8,000
2006 7,500
In last 10 years, more than 100,000 people have been executed in China.
Executions per year have dropped by 50% over the last 10 years.
Will Olympics Human Rights Reforms Last?
Other, 8.3% Yes, 3.8%
No, Only
Temporary
Gains, 41.3%
No Gains at All,
46.6%
Source: UPI/Zogby Poll, May 2007, 5,141 US adults (MOE 1.4%).
Will More Reforms be Introduced?
Reform of Reeducation, Criminal Procedure Law likely
“Host City Contract:” visas for all who want to attend
Hu Jintao constrained by two forces:
Personal
Hu criticized Jiang for “prisoner diplomacy”
Hu has had bad experience with prisoner releases
Institutional
17th Party Congress occupies leaders’ attention
No time to appear soft on Western critics
Some Suggestions for a Successful Olympics
1. Support Darfur deployment of UN force, establish no fly zone
2. Reduce executions by at least 50 percent, release statistics
3. Reform Reeducation through Labor, ensure fair trial rights
4. Ratify the ICCPR
5. Normalize relations with Vatican
6. Lift visa ban on blacklisted scholars, journalists
7. Stop returning North Korean refugees to North Korea
8. Allow Dalai Lama to see birthplace on personal visit
9. Release remaining counterrevolutionaries
10. Make peace with journalists (e.g. by releasing Ching Cheong)