Docstoc

Crude Palm Oil Weekly Report

Document Sample
Crude Palm Oil Weekly Report Powered By Docstoc
					 

                                              Crude Palm Oil – Weekly Report 
          

     
                                                                                                                                
     
        CPO – Weekly                                                              FOR PRIVATE CIRCULATION ONLY
     
                                                        Bursa Malaysia - CPO
      Contract Month        Open     High     Low       Close    Δ Close % Change Vol (MT)      OI          Δ OI   % Change
             November-11    3010     3140     3130      3120        97       3.11   283        684          -90     -11.63
             December-11    2996     3160     3120      3146       125       3.97   7349      10296        -2834    -21.58
              January-12    2984     3160     3100      3135       122       3.89  55808      31072        2174       7.52
             February-12    2983     3156     3098      3135       115       3.67  24462      21373        3262      18.01
               March-12     2996     3148     3092      3128       112       3.58  10716      12435         811       6.98  
        Source: Bursa Malaysia

                                                             MCX - CPO
      Contract Month        Open     High      Low      Close   Δ Close % Change Vol (lots)   OI(lots)     Δ OI    % Change
             November-11     480     494.4    479.6     492.3      12.3   2.50    4563         2041        -806    -28.3105
             December-11    481.4    498.5    480.6     496.2      15.1   3.04    5903         6307         516    8.910378
              January-12    482.6    502.7    481.6     500.4      18.2   3.64    4220         4056        988     32.20339
        Source: MCX                                                                                        1 lot = 10MT

      International Oils (US$/M.T) C&F Mumbai           Friday     Last Week   Change
      1. RBD Palmolein FOB Malaysia/Indonesia              1,060      1,035       25
      2. RBD Palmolein C&F Mumbai                          1,100      1,050       50
      3. Crude Palm Oil(CPO) FOB Indonesia                  970        950        20
      4. Crude Palm Oil(CPO)C&F Mumbai                     1,000       980        20
      5. Soya Degum (Crude) CIF Mumbai                     1,192      1,200       -8
      6. Sunflower Oil (Crude) CIF Mumbai                  1,185      1,180        5
      7. Castor Oil (First Grade) FOB Kandla (Export)      1,850      1,830       20
     
         Imported Oils (Rs./M.T.)                       Friday     Last Week   Change
     
        1. RBD Palmolein                                  54,500     53,500      1000
        2. Crude Degummed Soybean Oil (Ex-Mumbai)         59,500     58,500      1000
     
        3. Crude Palm Oil (5%) (Ex-Kandla)                49,400     48,000      1400
        Source: SEA
     
                 MCX - CPO Spot Price
      This week Last Week         Change
               500       481        19
     
        Source: MCX
     

     




                   14th November               Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page                    CPO Weekly 
                                        Crude Palm Oil – Weekly Report 
     
        Market Review:
 
        CPO - Malaysia
 
        Prices of CPO closed up on fresh buying on Bursa Malaysia. Price of benchmark January contract
 
        gained by 3.89% last week with gaining open interest indicating long accumulation. Volumes were
        high during the last week.

     
        Malaysian palm oil futures climbed to a near five-month high as sentiment on euro zone debt
     
        problems improved, with supply and demand fundamentals offering further support for the edible oil.
        The market is pretty firm, everything is up because the sovereign debt issue in Europe abated
        temporarily. Asian stocks and the euro rose on Monday on hopes that new technocratic leaders in
     
        Italy and Greece will take decisive action to save their indebted nations from bankruptcy and fend off
        a wider financial meltdown in the euro zone. Many other commodities rose as risk sentiment

        improved. Palm oil sentiment is improving, despite the macro outlook, due to lower production
        expectations from the fourth quarter, as dominant Southeast Asian producers enter the rainy
     
        season. A weaker version of La Nina may also reappear this year and if the weather pattern develops
        at the end of this year, it could coincide with the rainy season in top palm oil producers Indonesia
        and Malaysia.
     

        Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance issue Malaysian

        palm oil exports data for Nov. 1-15 on Tuesday. The lower-than-expected palm oil stocks at end-Oct
        will reinforce the current strength in CPO price, the root cause of which is worries over weather
     
        uncertainties. But we do not expect the weather concerns to be sustained beyond 1Q12 when La
        Nina is expected to go away.

 
        Mr. Dorab Mistry's Paper presented at Guangzhou on 13th November, 2011
 
        • Erratic weather that is slowing palm oil output growth and strong demand will lift benchmark
          Malaysian futures to 3,300 ringgit in January
        • Forecast that palm oil would reach 4,000 ringgit by mid-2012 on the view the world will not
          plunge into a recession due to resilient growth in Asia
        • The weather in Malaysia and in Indonesia has turned far too wet and this leads to flooding, slower
          harvesting and other related problems, referring to La Nina-driven rains striking at the same time
          as the monsoon season at the end of the year




            14th November                Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page               CPO Weekly 
                                         Crude Palm Oil – Weekly Report 
     • Malaysia's 2011 output forecast to 18.8 million tonnes from 19 tonnes previously

    • Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, Mistry also cut estimates to 25.2 million tonnes from
        25.5 million tonnes.
    • From November this year, we shall see a drawdown in palm oil stocks. It will become a function of price
        and of spreads to keep stocks in the second half of 2012 at a workable level


    Malaysia's Nov 1-10 palm oil exports down 6 pct-SGS SINGAPORE - Exports of Malaysian palm oil
    products for Nov 1-10 fell 6.0 percent to 457,696 tonnes from 486,882 tonnes shipped during Oct 1-10,
    cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said. Breakdown of SGS palm export figures for Nov 1-
    10 compared to a month ago (in tonnes):
                                    PALM PRODUCTS
                                    Nov 1-10       Oct 1-10


        Crude palm oil              118,975       124,500
        RBD palm oil                48,882         34,698
        RBD palm olein              211,799       171,837
        RBD palm stearin             27,470        71,691
        Crude palm kernel oil        13,850         11,535
        Processed palm kernel oil     6,850         19,393
        Oleochemicals                 5,670        15,464


    Price Outlook
    CPO- Malaysia

    CPO has traded firm as per our expectation last week. Prices were in a pullback mode with short term
    fundamentals being firm on export demand. We expect price (Bursa Malaysia – January contract) to gain
    till 3100-3150 ringgits in the current week. Our outlook for medium term continues to be weak with
    resistance being 3150 ringgits and support of 2900 ringgits.


    CPO- MCX

    We expect prices to be firm for MCX November contract as prices gained on Bursa Malaysia with tandem
    to international market. We expect prices to test the resistance of Rs 505-510 and support is Rs 485-490
    for MCX November contract.

     



             14th November                Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page           CPO Weekly 
                                                                   Crude Palm Oil – Weekly Report 
        

    

              
    
                  Faiyaz Hudani                                                                              Dharmesh Bhatia
    
                  Sr.Research analyst- Spices, Palm Oil                                                      AVP Research- Technical Analyst
                  faiyaz.hudani@kotakcommodities.com                                                         dharmesh.bhatia@kotakcommodities.com
    
                  +91-22-66528837                                                                            +91-22-66528846
    

                  Sudha R. Acharya                                                                            Amit Sajeja

                  Research analyst- Edible Oil, Pulses,                                                       Sr.Research analyst- Technical Analyst
                  Grains                                                                                      amit.sajeja@kotakcommodities.com
                  sudha.acharya@kotakcommodities.com                                                          +91-22-66528847
                  +91-22-66528809
    
                  Madhavi Mehta                                                                               Ajay Baheti
    
                  Research analyst- Energy, Bullion                                                           Associate Research- Technical Analyst
                  madhavi.mehta@kotakcommodities.com                                                          ajay.baheti@kotakcommodities.com
                  +91-22-66528809                                                                             +91-22-66528845
    

    
                  Priyanka Jhaveri
                  Research analyst- Base Metals
                  priyanka.jhaveri@kotakcommodities.com
                  +91-22-66528848

    

Disclaimer
    
This document is notfor public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for yourinformation and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person.Persons into whose
possession this document may come are required to observethese restrictions.
    
This material is forthe personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to seller the solicitation
of an offer to buy any commodity or commodity derivative inane jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is forthe general information of clients of Kotak Commodity
Services Limited. It doesn’t constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.

Wehave reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historicalinformation, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completenesscannot be guaranteed. Neither Kotak
Commodity Services Limited, nor any personconnected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document.The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations
and taketheir own professional advice.

Priceand value of the commodity referred to in this material may go up or down. Pastperformance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions-including those involving
commodity derivatives involve substantial risk andare not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centerson studying charts of a commodity’s price movement and
trading volume, asopposed to focusing on a commodity’s fundamentals and as such, may not matchwith a report on a commodity's fundamentals.

We do not have anyinformation other than information available to general public. The report isbased on information from sources like respective industry associations, FICCI, CII,
companies, media and other public sources. Opinions expressed are ourcurrent opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While weendeavor to update on a reasonable basis
the information discussed in thismaterial, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent usfrom doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that
anyforward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to changewithout notice. Our proprietary trading may make trading decisions that areinconsistent with the
recommendations expressed herein.

We andour affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from timeto time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commoditiesmentioned herein or (b) be
engaged in any other transaction involving suchcommodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker inthe commodity/(ies) discussed herein or have other
potential conflict ofinterest with respect to any recommendation and related information andopinions.
                         th
                   14  November                                   Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page                                                        CPO Weekly 
Theanalyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this reportaccurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject commodity and nopart of his or her compensation
was, is or will be, directly or indirectlyrelated to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Nopart of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed withoutKotak Commodity Services Limited’s prior written consent.
                                                                                                    st

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:11
posted:11/18/2011
language:English
pages:4