Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

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					Commercial Aviation
   Safety Team
     (CAST)
      Overview
         Kyle L. Olsen

  ALAR Workshop, Baku, Azerbaijan
      12 – 13 September 2007
                                     Worldwide accident rates have dropped
                                          dramatically over the years

                                                      Current accident rates are incredibly low
                                                      Challenge is to drive them lower
Accidents Per Million Flight Hours




                                                                                    Accident Rate




                                                           Fatal Accident Rate




                                     Note: 2004 is based on a pro-rata of data through May, 2004.
 In the U.S., our focus was set by the
White House Commission on Aviation
Safety, and The National Civil Aviation
     Review Commission (NCARC)

           “Reduce Fatal Accident
            Rate by 80%”




 “Strategic Plan to Improve Safety”
 “Improve Safety Worldwide”
                       Historical Worldwide Fatality Risk (1987 - 2001)
                100%
                90%
                80%                                      Excluding all
                70%                                      security events
Fatality Risk




                60%
                50%
                40%
                30%
                20%
                10%
                 0%
             In Response
 Ongoing    Industry and FAA Safer Skies
  Initiatives were combined into CAST

 Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated
  Strategic Safety Plan Developed

 Inplace and fully supported by Government
  and Industry with Worldwide Recognition -
  Commercial Aviation Safety Team, “CAST”
          Vision - Mission - Goals
Vision
   Key aviation stakeholders acting cooperatively to lead the
    world-wide aviation community to the highest levels of global
    commercial aviation safety by focusing on the right things.


Mission
   Enable a continuous improvement framework built on
    monitoring the effectiveness of implemented actions and
    modifying actions to achieve the goal.


Goal
   Reduce the US commercial aviation fatal accident rate 80% by
    2007.
                                And
   Maintain a continuous reduction in fatality risk in US and
    International commercial aviation beyond 2007.
CAST Organizational
     Structure
CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively
develop & implement a prioritized safety agenda
          Industry                           Government


 AIA                                            DOD
 Airbus                                         FAA
 ALPA          Commercial Aviation               •   Aircraft Certification
 APA              Safety Team                    •   Flight Standards
 ATA                                             •   System Safety
                    (CAST)                       •   Air Traffic Operations
 IFALPA                                          •   Research
 NACA                                           NASA
 Boeing    IATA**                               ICAO**
 GE*       AAPA**                               JAA
 RAA       ATAC**                               TCC
 FSF       APFA**                               NATCA**
                                                NTSB**
                 * Representing P&W and RR
                 ** Observer                    EASA
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

    CAST
           Joint Safety       • Data analyses
      Analysis Teams (JSAT)

           Joint Safety       • Safety
                                enhancement
         Implementation
                                development
           Teams (JSIT)
                              • Master safety plan
      Joint Implementation    • Enhancement
       Measurement Data         effectiveness
     Analysis Team (JIMDAT)   • Future areas of
                                study
                              Safer Skies
                              COMMERCIAL AVIATION

      GENERAL AVIATION             Controlled Flight
                                     Into Terrain
                                                       CABIN SAFETY
           Aeronautical
          Decisionmaking           Loss of Control

           Loss of Control                             Passenger Interference
                                     Uncontained
                                    Engine Failures
              Weather                                  Passenger Seat Belt Use
                                   Runway Incursion
          Controlled Flight
                                                         Carry-on Baggage
            Into Terrain            Approach and
                                      Landing

            Survivability                                  Child Restraint
                                      Weather

         Runway Incursions                Turbulence




IMPROVED DATA                                          HUMAN FACTORS
  & ANALYSIS                                           IN OPERATIONS &
                                                         MAINTENANCE
           CAST Dilemma

 Toreduce the accident rate, CAST needed to
 implement solutions – resources are limited
 TheSafety Enhancements enhanced safety
 but altogether cost ~ 5 billion dollars
 Some  safety enhancements are more
 effective than others across the various
 accident categories
 Implementation   reality demanded
 prioritization of these enhancements
         Basics of the Selection
              Spreadsheet
Effectiveness
 How effective the enhancement would be at eliminating
 the conditions if the enhancement were put in place.

Implementation
 By a future date what portion of the affected population
 has the enhancement incorporated or predicted to be
 incorporated.

Severity Weighting
 To account for differences in severity or significance of
 the undesired conditions.
General Methodology for Calculating the
Potential Benefit of a Safety Enhancing
             Intervention




            = (                                                   )
Accident           Effectiveness              Portion of
Risk
Reduction
                   that an intervention
                   has for reducing the
                   accident rate if
                   incorporated
                                          ,   world fleet
                                               with intervention
                                              implemented
Spreadsheet Example – Historical Airplane Accidents &
          Proposed Safety Enhancements
  Process Example - Values Used are Hypothetical

                                                                       .41                              Output to          Portion of Accident that
                                                           Safety enhancements will                    Strategy 1             would have been
                                                          not be effective on accident                  Accident                eliminated by
                                                                   (.52x.797)                          Prevention            enhancements =.59

                                                                                                                                      (1-.41)




                                                                                              .797
                                                       .52


                                                                        Probability that
        Other                                                               EGPWS                                       CFIT
       Safety                          EGPWS                          will not be effective
    Enhancements                                                                                                      Training
                                                                                                                        Aid

                                       60% Fleet Incorporation


40% of Fleet                                                    80% Effective


          .4=1-.6                                   .12=.6(1-.80)                                    .1                        .697=.9(1-.226)
          Airplane does not          Airplane has EGPWS                                  Airplane does not              Airplane has Inter #2
                 have            installed but it is not effective.                              have               installed but it is not effective.
          EGPWS installed            (portion with EGPWS                                  Inter #2 installed             (portion with Inter #2
         (1-installed portion)         x (1-effectiveness))                             (1-installed portion)             x (1-effectiveness))




                                                                                                                                                         15
                                         Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction
                                         100%                                              10000
                                                Risk Reduction          APPROVED PLAN
Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements




                                                                                           9000
                                                Total Cost in
                                                $ (Millions)
                                                                                           8000
                                         75%




                                                                                                   Resource Cost ($ Millions)
                                                                                           7000

                                                                                           6000

                                         50%                                               5000
                                                                 2007               2020
                                                                                           4000

                                                                                           3000
                                         25%
                                                                                           2000

                                                                                           1000

                                          0%                                               0
                                                 Cost Savings
                        Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents
              100


                          Historical cost of
                          accidents per flight
                          cycle
                   80
Dollars/Flt. Cyc




                                                                Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle
                   60
                                                                             Or
                                                                ~ $620 Million Dollars/Year
                   40




                   20
                                                                    Cost of accident fatalities
                                                                    following implementation of the
                                                                    CAST plan @ 2007 levels

                    0

                                                 2002            2007
             CAST Safety Plan
40 Completed Safety Enhancements
   Safety Culture
   Maintenance Procedures
   Flight Crew Training
   Air Traffic Controller Training
   Uncontained Engine Failures
   Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS)
   Standard Operating Procedures
   Precision Approaches
   Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems
   Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)
     CAST Safety Plan (cont.)
25 Committed Safety Enhancements
   Policies and Procedures
   Aircraft Design
   Flight Crew Training (additional aspects)
   Runway Incursion Prevention
   Precision Approaches (additional projects)
   Icing (additional turboprop projects)
   Midair
   Maintenance
   Cargo safety culture, policies and procedures
      CAST
Implementation Status
                                             65 Safety Enhancements
                                             42 Complete
                                             23 Underway
                                    2
                                             Two recent completed SE,
                                                     24 & 34.
                             21
                                        42




2020 Plan Risk Reduction Estimate
             74.3 %
          2020 CAST SAFETY PLAN – WORKING SEs
        (Total Plan – 65 SE; 42 Complete; 23 Underway)

24R2    30R1               34R1             39           47                53               120
 2.4     0.7                1.5            4.0           1.2              4.2                 0
AIR-1    ATA               ANM             ANM       ATO                  ARA               AIA

101R1    121                125            127           129              130               131
0.10    3.02               1.06            0.3       1.72                 6.39             30.35
 AIA     ATA               ATA             AIR       AGC                  AFS               ATA


133R1   134R1               136            159           162              163               165
2.73    1.73               0.98            0.27          0.0              0.39              0.0
 AIA     AIA               ATA             ATO       AFS                  ATA              AFS


 169     170               172R1           175
2.34    0.42               0.97            0.0
AFS      AIA               AFS             ATA                                         SE #
                                                                                      Score

                ON TRACK           IN QUESTION    LATE                              LOOSEC
                                                               JIMDAT Score/2020 implementation level
                                                  All Regions Combined
                                         Hull Loss & Fatal World Wide Accidents
                          Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted World Wide
                                               (2007 Implementation Values)
                   100%

                   90%                                                               Risk Eliminated
                   80%                                                               Risk Remaining
                   70%
 Portion of Risk




                   60%

                   50%

                   40%

                   30%

                   20%

                   10%

                    0%



Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy
           CAST Safety Strategy
                           Ongoing
                           Accident/
                       Incident/Studies




                          Master                      Performance
                        Contributing                    To Plan
                          Factors                       Review


Incident                            Develop/Revise    CAST Plan        Industry/
Analysis                            Enhancements                      Government
Process           Emerging/           & Metrics                         Action
                Changing Risk


                                                                  \
    Things to
     Watch                                                Safer
                 Future Changes                          System
                 Analysis Process



                  Information on System Performance

                                                                         10-28-05 CAST-064
        CAST Links to International
            Safety Activities
•   ICAO                              •   Africa
    –   COSCAP (Cooperative               –   African Safety
        Development of                        Enhancement Team
        Operational Safety and
                                              (ASET)
        Continuing
        Airworthiness)                •   Asia/Pacific
•   Europe                                –   Association of Asia
    –   ESSI: European                        Pacific Airlines
        Strategic Safety Initiative   • North America
•   Central and South                     –   NAFTA: North American
    America                                   Free Trade Association
    –   PAAST: Pan American
        Aviation Safety Team          •   Others
            International Perspective
           CAST Safety Enhancements
Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1997 through 2006


                                      Europe       C.I.S.
                                        0.7         4.9
                                        JAA - 0.6
  United States                         Non JAA – 1.2
  and Canada
       0.5                                                  China
                                        Middle East          0.3
                                            3.0
                                                                       Asia (Excluding
                                                                       1.9 China)
                                      Africa
                                       12.0
             Latin America                                                      Oceania
             and Caribbean                                                        0.0
                   2.4



                                                  World
                                                  1.16
                                                               Accidents per
                                                               million departures
                  International Perspective
                 CAST Safety Enhancements
      Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1997 through 2006

                                                                   COSCAP CIS
                                            Europe     C.I.S.   Specific CIS Projects
                               ESSI           0.7       4.9
                           35 SEs JAA
        United States                                                     COSCAP NA, SA, SEA
                           11 SEs EASA
        and Canada                                                        NA-40 SEs in work
   CAST
             0.5                                                 China    SA, SEA-27 SEs in work
65 SEs                                        Middle East         0.3
40 complete                                       3.0
25 in work                                           COSCAP GS               Asia (Excluding
                                 COSCAP BAG
                                                       (2006)                1.9 China)
                                            Africa
                                             12.0
                    Latin America             COSCAP CEMEC
                                                                                        Oceania
          PAAST     and Caribbean                                                         0.0
       CFIT and ALAR      2.4         COSCAP UEMOA




                        COSCAP AM                     World
                                                      1.16            Accidents per
                                                                      million departures
                     Cooperative efforts are
                     bringing accident rate down
                      Hull Loss Accident Rate
                              Worldwide Commercial Jets (>60,000 lbs, non-CIS) Through 31 December 2002
                               2.00
                                                                                     5 year running average
Rate per million departures




                               1.60


                               1.20
                                              FSF
                                              CFIT/ALAR
                                              Industry effort
                               0.80           starts                          CAST/JSSI/
                                                                              COSCAPs        PAAST
                                                                              begin          begins
                               0.40


                               0.00
                                      1992    1993    1994      1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002
Cooperative efforts are bringing
 accident rate down in the USA
                 Conclusions
•   CAST brings together all the key players
       – Air Carriers          – Manufacturers
       – Employee Groups        – Government
•   Predicted 73% risk reduction by 2020
•   CAST is committed to worldwide participation
•   History shows focused action and introduction of
    new capabilities have led to large accident rate
    reductions
•   Joint industry and government teams working
    together to a common agenda can further enhance
    the safety of our very safe aviation system. Can we
    meet the challenge?
http://www.cast-safety.org/
Thank you
Backup Slides
     Integrated Strategic Safety Plan
•   Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated Strategic Safety
    Plan Developed
    − 47 Prioritized Safety Enhancements
    − 8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies
•   47 safety enhancements optimized to include those actions
    with the best effectiveness vs. resource relationships - 30
    complete/17 committed and underway
•   Initially combines short-term “liveware”-based
    enhancements with transition to design change
    enhancements long term
• Projected 73% Risk Reduction by 2007 (75% by 2020)
• Foundation for U.S-supported continuous improvements in
    worldwide aviation safety
            Safety Plan Benefits

•   Prediction of a 73% risk reduction that
    also results in approximately $620 million
    annual savings to the industry
    −   Current accident cost per flight is
        approximately $76 cycle

    − Implementation of the 47 selected safety
        enhancements reduces this cost by $56 per
        flight cycle
              Safety Metrics Examples
    Safety Enhancement                                     Indicator
1. Terrain Avoidance Warning      • Reduction in MSAW alerts
   System (TAWS)                  • Reduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT)

4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (7-   • Percentage of operators who have adopted constant
    11,18)                          angle approaches
                                  • Continuous reduction in selected metrics
21. ALAR Flight Deck              • Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below
Equipment Upgrades – New           decision height
Type Designs (1-3)
23. ALAR Flight Crew Training     • Continuous reduction in the number of busted
– one project                       approach gates
                                  • Continuous reduction in altitude busts
27. LOC Policies and              • Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk
Procedures – Risk                   assessment/management processes in place
Assessments and Management        • Continuous reduction in the number of operations
– one project                       with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical
                                    systems
                                  • Percentage of operators with a process to include
                                    safety information in manuals
                      Safety Plan Development
                               Accident                   Accident
                                                                                 Safety
                                JSATS                       JSITS
                                                                              Enhancements
                              Case studies               Case studies


                                                                                              Recommended
                                             Emerging                                             Plan
  Master               Incident                Risk               Develop                       Revision
                                                                                JIMDAT                         CAST
Contributing           Analysis                                Enhancements
                                                                                Review                         Plan
  Factors              Process                                   & Metrics
                                             Changing
                                               Risk                                              Metrics


                                                                                                           Performance
                                                                                                             To Plan
                                                                                                             Review
                                                                                             Non-
                                                                                         Performance
     Aviation
                         Identify             Identify                                   Information
     System
                         Hazards              Factors
     Changes
                                                                        Yes
                                                             Present             Develop
                                                            In Master          Contributing
               FAST Hazards                                              No
                                                             Factors             Factors
                                                                                 (new or
                                                                                emerging
   Demographic           Identify             Identify
     Changes             Hazards              Factors




                                                                                                     11-5-03 CAST-051R

				
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