Quo vadis European Union?
Michael Emerson
Senior Research Fellow, CEPS, Brussels
Confederation of Icelandic Employers
Reykjavik, 31 January 2008
What values for Europe?
The Ten Commandments of the European Union
1. Thou shalt be truly democratic and respectful of human rights and the rule
of law.
2. Thou shalt guarantee the four freedoms of movement (goods, services,
capital, labour).
3. Thou shalt provide for social cohesion between people, regions and states.
4. Thou shalt ensure sustainable economic development for the benefit of
future generations.
5. Thou shalt reject nationalism and favour the multiple identity of citizens.
6. Thou shalt assure federative multi-tier governance.
7. Thou shalt assure secular governance and favour multi-cultural pluralism in
society.
8. Thou shalt promote multilateral order in international affairs.
9. Thou shalt abstain from threatening or using force against others without
just cause.
10. Thou shalt be open, inclusive and integrative towards neighbours that
adhere to the above.
Lisbon Treaty (1)
= Constitution, more or less in substance,
but sadly lacking in textual transparency
2 years wasted because of Chirac’s poor
political tactics. France is not trained to
use referenda like Switzerland. People
voted for many unrelated reasons
Only advantage, allowed UK to escape
having a referendum
Lisbon Treaty (2)
Institutions – basic steps
• new EU President, 2 ½ years, renewable
once
• High Representative chairs foreign ministers
council + vice-president of Commission
• Commissioners limited to 2/3rd number of
member states
• European parliament limited to 751 members
Lisbon Treaty (3)
Council
• Summits chaired by permanent President
• Foreign ministers chaired by High Rep
• Eurozone finance ministers, 2 year president ad
personam
• Other Councils of Ministers (agriculture, transport,
energy etc) retain six-monthly rotating presidency
• Thus major erosion of rotating presidency, but messy
situation for coordination. NB COREPER (EU
ambassadors) remains presided by rotation.
Lisbon Treaty (4)
Will new Council Presidency rival and
dominate the Commission President; or,
will he ally with him and rely on him?
Outcome open, may depend on
personalities
Lisbon Treaty (5)
High Representative, double-hatted
• Potentially hugely powerful position, but
will need deputies
• Should produce more joined-up foreign
policy
• Will entail diplomatic service, with
Commission Delegations becoming EU
delegations
Lisbon Treaty (6)
Legislative procedures
New Qualified Majority Vote (QMV) rules:
55% of member states
65% of population
blocking minority needs 4 member
states
Dominant factor likely to be the 65% population
This lowers the threshold for majority decisions (i.e.
makes achieving majorities easier)
Lisbon Treaty (7)
Legislative procedures (cont.)
• Also field for QMV expanded to include 21
new legal areas and 23 existing legal areas
currently under unanimity
– Especially important for Freedom, Security and
Justice area, with old 3rd pillar merged with 1st pillar
• Co-decision procedures put European
Parliament and Council on equal footing in
legislative process; i.e. enhanced powers for
Parliament
‘Lisbon process’
Experiment at comprehensive economic
reform at EU + member state level, with
elaborate benchmarking
= one of the factors eroding the original EEA
concept
‘Lisbon process’ not brilliantly successful,
but at least it moves discourse and policy
planning processes in a coherent direction
Eurozone and the macroeconomic
crisis
Thank God for euro, since a 27-country European
monetary system would have been chaotic
Credit/banking crisis highlights major issues for
bank supervision, regulation and ‘lender of last
resort’ issues
ECB’s massive intervention in recent weeks =
automatic ‘lender of first resort’ on huge scale
Debate gets underway, led by Padoa Schioppa
Schengen, migration, asylum
nexus
Initially a ‘freedom of movement within’ policy
Now becomes a multiple, integrated set of policies,
with accent on external security threats &
complex set of legislative and operational
(Frontex agency) actions, & linkages to broad
foreign and security policy, & and to domestic
societal issues regarding Mulsim minorities
Energy – climate change nexus
Currently no 1 priority for Barroso
Commission. Huge challenges to
dominate policy debate for years:
• Domestic competition policy on unbundling, fierce fight between
liberal and state champions (F, D)
• Russian tsunami of pipeline & network linkages (North and now
South Stream)
• Domestic C02 emission &renewables targets: intra-member state
bargaining
• International negotiations over post-Kyoto regime
Commission won’t get all it wants, but the agenda will be deep
Enlargement (1)
EU 25 and now 27 has adapted and continued to
function without feared gridlock
New member states fit in reasonably well, and
Polish maverick case disciplined democratically
(i.e. ‘difficult’ government thrown out)
However there are concerns over relapse of
political discipline with the loss of the leverage
over new member states once in (e.g. over anti-
corruption policies)
Enlargement (2)
+ Croatia 2010 ?
+ Macedonia, Albania, Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro,
Kosovo. Commitments repeated, but long way off, and a
big crisis threatens over Kosovo (see next)
+ Turkey ? Negotiations continue under cloud of ambiguity.
Commission tries to progress, with considerable support;
France & Austria most strong opponents
+ Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia ?? Aspirations get no
encourgament from institutions, but Ukraine has
supporters
+ Micro states raise questions – San Marino, Andorra
= EU of around 35 by 2030???
Enlargement (3)
Bad news: Kosovo already a major threat to European
order …
Both within Balkans with very bad scenarios evident:
Presidential election this weekend between Tadic and
Nikolic; leading then to Kosovo declaring independence,
with EU countries recognising this in stages; contagion
risks, Mitrovitsa, Macedonia, Bosnia
And between EU/US and Russia: with Russia aggressively
stirring up trouble in EU space, under hypocritical pretext
of upholding the rule of law
Enlargement (4)
Good news: Sarkozy about to change the
blockage put into the French constitution by
Chirac
Chirac’s amendment was to make every future
enlargement after Croatia subject to referendum
Sarkozy will make this subject to ratification by
either parliament or referendum, with the
President to choose which
Quid EEA?
Very pertinent analysis of EEA Joint Parliamentary Committee of November
2007
Stresses structural changes in EU since EEA agreement of 1992:
• Enlargement 12 to 27; Euro & financial system; foreign and security policy;
neighbourhood policy extending the single market; integration of justice and
home affairs; increased role of European Parliament
• Extended internal market activity, increasing grey areas of questionable
applicability under EEA agreement, including big environment/climate
change policies, and increasing ‘soft law’ with action plans that are not
legally binding and benchmarked coordination under Lisbon process
Makes EEA look increasingly obsolete; less (and increasingly uncertain)
coverage of EU affairs; less institutional scope; increasing cost of financial
contributions.
European Neighbourhood Policy
(1)
Originally for new Eastern neighbours (Ukraine,
Moldova, Belarus)
Rapidly extended to the Caucasus and
Mediterranean
A policy that tries to be ‘Europeanisation light’,
following the model of accession negotiations,
but without the incentive of full membership or
the obligations
European Neighbourhood Policy
(2)
But Ukraine especially insists on membership
ambitions; which is supported by some (Sw, Pl,
UK), but opposed by others (F)
Germany wanted in 2007 a stronger ‘Ostpolitik’
And now Sarkozy wants a (so-far misconceived
and divisive) ‘Union of the Mediterranean’
So this area of policy is under tension
Russia
Mounting and serious tensions
2006-7 = years of significant and multiple irritations: Estonian
monument, Lithuania oil supplies, Polish meat, Ukr gas war,
rejection of Energy Charter transit Protocol, Georgian and Moldovan
wine blockades, Litvinenko murder.
Resulting blockage of opening of negotiations for Strategic Partnership
Treaty at Samara in June 2007
2008 = now prospect for major confrontation over vital interests, namely
Kosovo affair where Russia has primed Serbia into a wrecking
position (last time Russia supported Serbia it led to WWI)
What to do? Containment alliance with new US administration??
Norms for multi-polar system?
World affairs now a 5 or 6 player game (EU,
US, Rus, China, India, Brazil)
EU instinctively wants a rule based
international system
But what becomes the system with crude
realpolitik Russia, and big unknowns from
China (first experiences in Africa not
promising)
Overall
EU recovered from the constitution/referendum crisis much
better than many feared
Decision-making processes reasonably well advanced to
handle complex policy challenges
EU has survived huge enlargement to 27 without gridlock
Next big challenges;
• Short-term: survive the Kosovo crisis
• Medium/long-term:
– Beef up foreign and security policy for the multi-polar world
– Get results on the energy security/climate fronts