IRAN
Unwelcome member to the
Nuclear Club
References
• The Iran Threat by Alireza Jafarzadeh
• The Devil We Know by Robert Baer
• Democracy in Iran by Ali Gheissari and
Vali Nasr
• “A Roundtable on Nuclear Issues in
Relation to Iran” (working paper) by
Project Ploughshares, Mennonite Central
Committee Canada, and the Iranian
embassy
Objectives
• Political evolution
• Bid for nuclear energy: consistent with the
NPT?
• New regional power in a post-Cold War
world
• What can be done to avert an escalating
conflict with Iran and further regional
destabilization?
Reza Shah Pahlavi 1925-1941
Foreign intrigue and territorial
threats
Victim of superpowers
The last Shah of Iran
Return to the Monarchy
Nuclear energy in Iran
Iranian Revolution 1979
Hostage Crisis
Iran-Iraq War
Reform and changing society
• Pres. Rafsanjani and the “second” republic
1989: economy vs. ideology
• US imposes oil and trade sanctions
against Iran 1995
• Khatami presidency 1997-2005
• IAEA inspections 2003, Security Council
• Ahmadinejad elected president 2005
Who calls the shots?
“Islamofascism”?
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
• Commits non-nuclear weapon states to
abstain from obtaining nuclear weapons
• Requires that the IAEA oversees the
nation member‟s nuclear activity
• Guarantees the “inalienable” right to
peaceful uses of nuclear energy, provided
the member adheres to the full treaty
• Says that nuclear weapon states must
eventually achieve nuclear disarmament
Nuclear fuel supplier club
• “We are not questioning [Iran’s] right to
civil nuclear power…But because...they
were not clear with the IAEA, that civil
nuclear power cannot include the ability to
enrich and reprocess on Iranian territory,
because when you learn that you’ve
learned the key technology to making a
nuclear weapon.” U.S. Secretary of State
Condoleeza Rice, April 19, 2006
A Question of Trust
There is “…a basic hypocrisy on the part of
nuclear powers: they retain their own arsenals
while denying others the same right”. (John
Deutch, US gov defense and security posts)
Mutual Assured Destruction
(MAD)
• Deterrence to pre-emptive conventional or
nuclear attack
• What is the deterrence to develop a
nuclear weapon? None!
• What are the advantages of having one?
• Remember the International Court of
Justice: nuclear weapons and the threat
to use them are illegal
(Mad) Mullahs and Bombs
• “…inherent in Tehran‟s version of Islamic
rule is a lack of ethical standard that would
forestall the actual use of nuclear
weapons. Tehran‟s leaders have no moral
ambiguities about using nuclear weapons
to annihilate „global arrogance‟ and clear a
path for radical Islamic rule…if the Iranian
regime is not prevented from building a
nuclear weapon, its clout will turn into
wanton nuclear aggression.”(Jafarzadeh)
NPT: can it survive the
challenges?
• Non-NPT states with nuclear weapons
(India, Pakistan and Israel)
• Nuclear safeguards and new rules (1993)
• 3 noncompliance crises (N Korea, Libya
and Iran
• Will the NWS disarm (Article VI)?
• Impoverishment of IAEA (UN)
Objectives
• Iran: looking at its political evolution to
better understand its future with us
• How does Iran‟s bid for nuclear energy
highlight contradictions in the NPT and the
post-Cold War balance of power?
• What can be done to avert an escalating
conflict with Iran and further regional
destabilization?
Discussion
• Israel and Palestine
• Foreign intervention, past and present
• Variety of rule: democracies(Israel),
monarchies (SA), national security states
(Egypt, Syria), theocracies
(Iran),destabilized regimes (Iraq,Lebanon)
• Water and fossil fuels: strategic interests
for Middle East and world
Iranian gov viewpoints
• Insist on right to uranium processing
• Cannot depend on external suppliers
• Supports NPT, Biological and Chemical
Weapons Convention, and a Middle East
nuclear weapons-free zone
• Wants integrations into the international
community and better relations with West
Solutions: international
• Evolve from the Cold War mentality
• UN reform (no permanent seats on
Security Council)
• re-think NATO
• NPT obligatory for all NWS
• NPT surveillance and inspections for all in
a fully transparent and accountable way
Solutions: Middle East
• Recognize Iran‟s place in the peace
negotiations: need its cooperation
• Iran and USA: accept each other‟s
presence in Persian Gulf and region
• Nuclear weapons-free zone in Middle East
• Real security: food, water, fuel and their
distribution within the region
• Diplomacy, UN initiatives
Where is Iran going?
Same place we are.
Image of Iran
No easy ride for the
fundamentalists
Iran
• Political and social evolution in an
unstable region
• Diplomacy and dialogue versus pre-
emptive military strikes (ours) with
counterstrikes in its areas of influence
• Must be taken into account in any regional
security system and resource
management; a step before true peace?
Internet Refernces
• www.campaigniran.org
• www.we-change.org/
• www.kargah.com
• www.qoqnoos.com
• www.irancartoon.com
• www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/iran/