Analytical Structure by 0PN7jN78

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									         Analytical Structure
1.   Origins, Objectives, Doctrine
2.   Leadership, Leadership Structure
3.   Support Structure
4.   Strategy, Tactics
5.   Counterterrorist Efforts
6.   Non-Violent Political Activities
1. Origins, Objectives, Doctrine
           Roots of Radical Sunni Ideology
                                                                               Anti-colonial nationalism
                                                                               Israel-Palestine issue
Ahmad ibn Taymiyyah
(Damascas) 1263-1328           Deobandi Islam
returning to original          1867 British-held India
sources of Islam               anti-colonial Islam           Abu al-Ala Maududi                                Abdullah Azzam
                                                             1903-1979                                         Palestinian 1941-1989
                                                             Pakistan                                          Intellectual mentor of OBL
                                                             Purification of Islam is a key
                                                             to independence from British


•       Salafism
•       Late 1800s             Rashid Rida, Egypt            Muslim Brotherhood                        Sayyid Qutb
•       return to              1866-1935                     Egypt 1928                               1906-1966
•       original sources       only Salafi beliefs           Hassan al-Banna                          Egypt                         Al-Qaeda
•                              can free Muslims              rejects British colonialism              member of MB                  Osama bin-Laden
                               from colonialism              rejects “westernization” of Islam        purify Islam                  Ayman al-Zawahri
•                                                            rejects church/state separation          violence if necessary
•                                                                                                     anti-Israel
     Muhammad ibn Abd al Wahhab                                                                       anti-US
     (Arabian Peninsula)                                                                              “founder” of “Sunni
     1703-1792                                                                                          radicalism”
     return to original sources                                                                       Milestones
     rejects Islamic pluralism
     condoned violence against apostates                                                                             Abd-Al-Salam Al-Faraj
     anti-Ottoman, seen as foreign occupiers, apostates      1932 Saudi Arabia becomes independent                   Egypt, 1952-1982
•                                                            unifies Arabian regions and families                    disciple of Qutb
                                                             under the al-Saud family                                The Neglected Duty
•                                                            Wahhabi Islam becomes the official creed
•                              Late 1700s
•                              Al-Saud family alliance with Wahhabi movement
•
                                                                                                               Saudi-sponsored madrassas
                                                                                                               globally, by late 20th century-
                                          Origins of AQ
   Iranian Revolution
   (1978-1979)
   provides inspiration                                                                foreign fighters
                                     formation                                         go home,
                                     of Afghan mujahadin                               form new groups
                                                                                       or join existing
   Pakistan military                                                                   groups, create a
    allies with radical                                                                 global terror
    Islamic groups (1977-79)                                                            network
    provides sanctuary



   Ideological legacy     USSR invades         US, China, Pakistan          Soviets
   of radical Islamic     Afghanistan          Egypt, Saudi Arabia,         withdraw
   thought                1979                 and others funding,          1989
   provides ideology                           supplying, and training
   and inspiration                             mujahadin and jihadis



                                                   OBL and others recruit
   Saudi funded religious schools                  volunteers                          al-Qaeda (global)
   (madrassas) in Middle East                      from madrassas                      Abu Sayyaf (Phil.)
   and Asia (1970s-1980s)                          in M. E. and Asia                   GIA (Algeria)
   provides recruits with ideology                 (foreign fighters                   HAMAS
                                                    or jihadis)                         Islamic Jihad
                                                                                        IMU
                                                                                       Jemaah Islamiah
                                                                                        PIJ
                                                                                        Bosnia, Chechnya,
                                                                                        Kashmir…
                                                Time
      AQ is Clear About Goals
 1996 fatwa
 1998 fatwa

 Al-Qaeda Training Manual (from Dept. of
  Justice)
 Bin-Laden videos

 Abu Bakr Naji,

The Management of
Savagery
 Article on Mustafa

Setmariam Nasar
(Abu Musab al-Suri)
 Militant Ideology Atlas
(Combating Terrorism Center)
             Restore the Caliphate




   From al-Qaeda: The Many Faces of an Islamist Extremist Threat, REPORT OF
    THE U.S. HOUSE PERMANENT SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE , JUNE 2006
AQAM Attacks 1995-2011
   2. Leadership, Leadership Structure
              Founders
   Abdullah Azzam      Osama bin-Laden
             Leadership
   AQ Leadership 1989
   Leadership 2008

   Decentralization
   Regional Nodes
   Cells
                Central Structure

                                                 OBL
        Shura                               Emir General
                                           and core leaders


Media    Finance Military Religious/
                            Legal
                                       N        O       D       E   S




                                            C       E       L   L   S
                                    Networks I
   Traditional organization model
   Hierarchical/corporate model
                                                 Tier 1



                  Tier 2                         Tier 2                         Tier 2



     Tier 3            Tier 3       Tier 3            Tier 3       Tier 3            Tier 3



              4                 4            4                 4            4                 4



              4                 4            4                 4            4                 4
                  Networks II
   Corporate Model        Network model
    • Centralization        • Decentralized
    • Control               • Autonomous
    • Command               • Entrepreneurial
    • Authority             • Disconnected or
    • Permanent               isolated
      structure             • Temporary linkages
    • Transparent           • Operational secrecy
      operations for
      coordination
             Networks III
   Models
                Cell Operations

                                     T       T
                     O       O
F       F
                                         T
                         O
    F



                                     P
L
            L
        L                                P
                                 P
Another View of Structure
                            AQ Cells




   From al-Qaeda: The Many Faces of an Islamist Extremist Threat, REPORT OF
    THE U.S. HOUSE PERMANENT SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE , JUNE 2006
3. Support Structure
      AQ Support and Activities
   AQ Attacks
   AQ Affiliated Organizations
                       AQ Finances




   From al-Qaeda: The Many Faces of an Islamist Extremist Threat, REPORT OF
    THE U.S. HOUSE PERMANENT SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE , JUNE 2006
    4. Strategy and Tactics
The Debate:
 The Far Enemy
 0r
 The Near Enemy

Writings on Strategy
 Abu Bakr Naji, The Management of
  Savagery
 Article on Mustafa Setmariam Nasar

(Abu Musab al-Suri)
Model A: Focus on Near Enemy


                                           Revolution,
                                              Coup,
Terrorist attacks          Undermining    Insurgency,
Political Agitation        of current       Electoral
Religious Indoctrination   regimes       participation
                                          (but goal of
                                         authoritarian
                                              State)
  Model B-1: Near and Far Enemy:
          US Withdrawal


                                                 Revolution,
Terrorist attacks          Undermining              Coup,
                                                Insurgency,
Political Agitation        of current             Electoral
Religious Indoctrination   regimes             participation
Strike at US                                    (but goal of
                                               authoritarian
Strike at US allies        US withdraws             State)
                            from involvement
  Model B-2: Near and Far Enemy:
         US Overreaction


                                         Revolution,
Terrorist attacks     Undermining           Coup,
Political Agitation   of current         Insurgency,
                                          Electoral
Religious Indoc.      regimes           participation
Strike at US                             (but goal of
Strike at US allies   US Overreaction   authoritarian
                                            state)
           Classic Maoist Insurgent Warfare



                      Phase III: Movement Warfare


Nearness
to goal           Phase II: Guerrilla Warfare


              Phase I: Propaganda and Organization




                            Time
           Al-Qaeda Insurgent/Terrorist Warfare



                                                Iran Model
                                                Afghan./Somalia Model
                                                Sudan Model
Nearness
To goal                         Phase III: Taking Power

                        Phase II: Terrorist Strikes

           Phase I: Education/Religious Instruction and
                Creation of Network Organization




                                Time
    Abu Bakr Naji, The Management of Savagery




Current   political and   create         establish    gain
state     religious       instability;   new order;   legitimacy,
          organization;   savagery;      religious    authority,
          terrorist       chaos          order        power
          attacks



                             Time
Khobar Towers, 1996
Nairobi, August 7, 1998
USS Cole October 2000
Bali Bombing October 2002
Marriott Hotel, Jakarta, Indonesia
          August 2003
Madrid Bombing, March 11, 2004
Australian Embassy Jakarta
         Sept. 2004
London, July 2005
London and Glascow Attacks,
        June 2007
Algerian Coast Guard Barracks
       September 2007
Iraq, Weekend of July 7, 2007
        (Washington Post)
5. Counterterrorism
      Measures
6. Non-Violent Activities

								
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