Global Phaseout of Leaded Petrol by pM2eF6m

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									Partnership for Clean Fuels and Vehicles




 Global Phaseout of Leaded
           Petrol
                  Elisa Dumitrescu
    United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP),
                PCFV Clearing-House
Urban Air Quality Worldwide
                                                        Nairobi CBD, 2005
                                                        Thomas Harrison-Prentice




° WHO:
   – Every year 1.5 billion urbanites breathe air that exceeds WHO
   standards;
   – Well over 800,000 deaths each year due to urban air pollution;

   – More than 70% of deaths from outdoor air pollution occur in the
   developing world;
°Costs:
   – World health costs of urban air pollution are estimated to
   approach US$1 billion per year.
   – In developing countries the health effects of air pollution cost
   between 5% - 20% of GDP.
Transport and Air Quality

• Almost half the world’s population now lives in cities;

• Urban air pollution largely attributed to transport and
industrial emissions;

• Local pollution often severe;

• Transboundary movement of pollutants such as PM, nitrogen,
heavy metals, organic pollutants;

• Leaded petrol responsible for up to 90% of urban Pb air
emissions;

• Key to climate change: Road transport is responsible for 1/5 -
1/4 of all CO2 emissions globally...
Health Effects


                 Premature Deaths



                       Cancer



               Developmental Effects



                 Hospitalization



          Asthma Attacks and Bronchitis
Transport & Air Quality: European
Example
                           Transport emissions of air pollutants




• Air pollutant emissions in European countries decreased by 1/3 in the
past decade (PM and ozone precursors down by 30-40% from 1990-2003);
• Technical improvements/tighter standards for transport;
• Intro of cleaner fuels mainly impacted emissions from road transport - form
of transport closest to people, therefore more exposure;
• But overall growth in volume of concern...
    Loss in average statistical life
expectancy (months) due to identified
       anthropogenic PM 2.5


                                        Particulate Matter
                                        ° Avg. 9 months of life
                                        expectancy lost
                                        ° 4 million life years
                                        lost annually
                                        ° 386,000 premature
                                        deaths annually
                                        ° 110,000 serious
                                        hospital admissions
                                        annually

                                        Ground-Level Ozone

                                        ° 21,400 premature
                                        deaths annually
The PCFV: Background & Mission

• September 2002: Launched at World Summit on Sustainable
Development (WSSD) to: “Help developing countries to develop
action plans to complete the global elimination of leaded gasoline
and start to phase down sulphur in diesel and gasoline fuels,
concurrent with adopting cleaner vehicle requirements.”

• Cleaner Fuels + Cleaner Vehicles = Reductions in polluting
emissions/better urban air quality

• Launch of Global Lead
Campaign, Promotion of sulphur
reductions in fuels (support for
region and country goals with
ultimate goal of 50 ppm or below)
• Cleaner vehicle technology
Partners

 Industry            Governments




                       NGOs


Int. Organisations
Support

• Regional and sub-regional events for
Lead Phaseout

• National technical expert groups

• Public awareness campaigns and
environmental training events

•Santiago, Chile Diesel Bus & Truck
Retrofit Project (USEPA)

• Training on Cleaner Vehicles in
Bulgaria
Support, ctd.

• Tools for Retrofit and Cleaner Bus Fleets
(forthcoming) & upcoming regional training
for bus fleet managers to be held in Turkey;
• Upcoming Sulphur and Octane reports;
• Decommissioning of TEL equipment
(planned).
UNEP Urban Air Quality Projects

• Study on Nairobi Vehicle Emissions
• Air Quality Workshops and Air Quality Monitoring in Tanzania and
Ghana
• Study of soil lead levels and blood lead levels in and around
Nairobi, Kenya
• Hybrid Vehicles Report (forthcoming)
Vehicular Pollution Control

    Cleaner Fuels and Vehicles: A System for Better Air Quality


• Cleaner fuels and vehicles most
viable method of reducing vehicle
emissions, air pollution today;

• Lead-free and low-sulphur fuels
affect emissions directly;

• And enable the use of cleaner vehicle technology such as catalytic
converters, which can further reduce pollutants by around 90%;

• Cleaner fuels (ultra-low sulphur petrol and diesel) allow for the use of latest
high-fuel efficiency technology in vehicles. Advanced engines make 20-45%
reduction in CO2 possible.
Cleaner Fuels - Unleaded Petrol

• Complete elimination of lead additive from petrol is the first step
toward lower vehicle emissions;

•TEL used to increase octane rating of petrol since 1920’s;

• Phaseout began in the US in 1969 as health effects became known;

• Catalytic converter technology introduced in US vehicles in1974, total
US ban on leaded petrol in 1986;

• Rio summit of 1992 called for worldwide ban of leaded;

• EU total ban on leaded petrol in 2000, WHO called for total ban in
2001;

• But lead remains to be completely eliminated from petrol worldwide.
Lead in Petrol: Health Effects

• One of the primary anthropogenic sources of airborne lead emissions is
leaded fuel (up to 90% in urban areas);

• Affects mental health development, IQ and behavior of children (especially
below 6 years old): toxicity even at low levels - even blood lead levels as low
as 5 ug/dl can irreversibly impair brain development;

• For each increase of 1ug/dl – loss of 0.25-0.5 IQ point, for each 10ug/dl –
height decrease by 1 cm;

• Adults: lead exposure - high blood pressure, increases in heart disease
and damage to organs.
                  EGYPT: Estimated Annual Health Effects:

                       •Heart Attacks - 6,500 to 11,600
                           •Strokes - 800 to 1,400
                 •Premature Deaths (Adults) - 6,300 to 11,100
                            •Infant Deaths - ~820
                  •Average IQ Loss in Children - 4.25 Points
Ambient Pb Concentrations in Bangkok
and Pb in Gasoline from 1988 - 1998

                                0.5                                                                    2.5




                                                                                                             Average Pb Concentration ( mg/m3)
Pb Content in Gasoline (g/l)



                               0.45
                                                                Premium ULG was introduced in 1991
                                0.4                             Regular ULG was introduced in 1993     2

                               0.35                             Complete phase out of regular leaded
                                                                gasoline in 1993
                                0.3                             Complete phase out of premium leaded
                                                                                                       1.5
                                                                gasoline in 1995
                               0.25

                                0.2                                                                    1

                               0.15

                                0.1                                                                    0.5

                               0.05

                                 0                                                                     0
                                      1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

                                             Pb Content in Gasoline        Ambient Pb Concentration
 Michael Walsh
Hungary: declining blood lead levels after
decrease of lead in petrol
                       Lead levels in petrol in Hungary:
                              1985: 0.7 grams/ liter
                           1995: 0.15 grams per liter
                            current EU level: .005 g/l

       Lead content in petrol (g/l)              Blood Lead Level (µg/dl)

 0.8                                       25
             1985                                        1985
 0.7
                                           20
 0.6

 0.5                                       15
 0.4

 0.3                                       10
                                                                     1995
 0.2                          1995
                                            5
 0.1

  0                                         0
Status of Lead in CEE
Leaded Petrol Worldwide
Progress in Africa
International Experience

•   Gradual Phaseout: US, Canada, Japan, Brazil, France;
•   Immediate: Central America, parts of Africa, Thailand, China, India,
    Egypt (most cost-effective approach to decreasing airborne lead
    to near zero – avoids huge costs of parallel distribution
    systems);
•   China began the switch in cities to 100 % unleaded in 1997, then
    provinces and is now lead free nationally;
•   India began in Delhi in 1998 and is now unleaded nationally;
•   Thailand began incremental reductions in lead in fuel in 1991 and
    1993 and banned in 1996;
•   Sweden reduced lead from .4.g’l to .15 g/l in 1970s along with tax
    differentiation (unleaded had lower pump price) – total switch in 1992
    using lubricity additives for older cars;
•   Slovak Republic study revealed neurological development effects of
    leaded petrol – public education campaign and Slovnaft refinery
    adjustments led to complete ban in 1995.
The Systems Approach:
Cleaner Fuels Enable Cleaner Vehicle Technology

• Cleaner fuels allow for more advanced vehicle emission standards and
improved technology:

• For petrol vehicles, 3-way catalysts used with the closed-loop air/fuel
control systems. Standard technology on all new petrol cars. Lead
poisons catalyst (even trace amounts) , maximum efficiency at ultra-low
(50 ppm or less) sulphur.




                                                             MECA
Other Considerations

1. Concerns over possible Valve Seat Recession
(VSR) in older vehicles:
• Most modern engines now have re-designed, wear-
resistant valve seat systems;
• All but a small percentage of cars are now resistant
to excessive valve seat wear (obsolete valve seats
predicted to be 7.2% of total world vehicle population
in 2006 - European manufacturers switched in mid-
1980’s);
• Studies have found that valve seat recession virtually
absent in actual vehicle operation in normal everyday
use (only present in laboratory extreme driving
conditions);
• No country has reported excessive valve seat wear
or engine problems after eliminating lead in petrol.
See the PCFV report of the Valve Seat Recession
Working Group for more info - www.unep.org/pcfv
Other Considerations, ctd.

2. Lower Maintenance Costs:
• Unleaded petrol reduces the vehicle maintenance costs - less corrosive
combustion products;
• Leaded petrol causes corrosion to engine parts, more frequent oil changes,
and the replacement of spark plugs, mufflers and exhaust;
• Unleaded extends spark plug life from 6,000 miles to over 50,000 miles, and
extends oil change intervals by a factor of 2 to 4. Reduced engine corrosion was
predicted to improve engine life by an additional 50%. (MECA)

3. Octane: Options available depend on current and planned technology, include
refinery operating changes, new refinery equipment, addition of additives – how
much octane is needed? Kenya and the US lowered octane levels.
Additives must be evaluated for health and vehicle effects;

4. Benzene: Cost-effective refinery solutions that increase octane without
increasing benzene emissions exist – catalytic converters decrease 90-95% of
benzene and other aromatic emissions in exhaust;
Cost-Benefit of Going Unleaded

• US: 1989 estimates Health benefits of reducing US population
  BLL by 1 µg/dl amounted to $172 billion annually - estimates by
  EPA that benefits of phaseout exceeded costs more than ten
  times (avoided health costs and wage loss);

• Mexico: reduction of airborne lead levels and improvement in
  health in Mexico City 1993 - net benefits in health and vehicle
  maintenance reduction $1,022 million;

• Most significant costs of lead phaseout are the costs of alternate
  octane values and modification of refinery production facilities
  (range from $0.01 - $0.02 per liter of petrol including costs of
  refinery upgrade, unleaded fuel production and octane additives)
  BUT refinery upgrade pays for itself in a short period through
  increased productivity and efficiency.
Low Sulphur

° Diesel sulphur levels in Europe can be as low as 10 ppm while in
developing countries levels reach 10,000 ppm...

Lowering sulphur
1. Lowers Emissions From Existing Vehicles:
     SO2 From All Vehicles
     PM From Diesel Vehicles
     CO, HC, NOx From All Catalyst Vehicles

2. Enables Advanced Vehicle After-treatment technologies below 500 ppm &
Tighter Standards For New Vehicles;

3. Enables Retrofit of Existing Heavy-Duty Vehicles;

4. Low sulphur petrol enhances functioning of three-way catalysts
(maximum efficiency at near-zero sulphur levels);
5. Extends life of the engine.
Sulphur Reduction Engine Benefits

                                                                Going from 10,000 to 5,000 ppm
                                                                  sulphur diesel, engine life is
                                                               expected to increase by over 40%
                     100
 Engine life increase (%)




                            80                                                                      high

                                                                                                    average
                            60

                            40                                                                      low

                            20

                            0
                                 1.000   3.000              5.000      7.000    9.000      11.000   13.000
                                                                      PPM sulphur

           Engine life and sulfur levels. Source: Detroit Diesel
Potential

Possible Actions: Acceleration of Ban on lead in petrol + cleaner fuel
incentives, Plan for sulphur reduction, fuel adulteration, renewal of the
vehicle fleet (incentives for cleaner vehicles), improved systems for
inspection and maintenance of vehicles, capacity building on cleaner fuel
and vehicle issues in civil society and at municipal level, awareness on lead
health effects and need for phaseout….

PCFV Support Includes:

•Access to Tools, Research, Awareness Information

• Support for activities - training, working groups, cross-sectoral
dialogue and partnerships

• Join the PCFV - greater access to the PCFV network of experts
Why Join?

•   Public/Private Global Initiative cooperating to successfully address
    cleaner fuel and vehicle issue for better air quality;

•   Network with government, industry, international organizations and
    civil society on these issues;

•   Notification of PCFV and related events and activities, including
    Global Partnership Meetings;

•   Access to technical Working Groups.
Information: Website www.unep.org/pcfv
              Thank you!




              PCFV Clearing-House
             Urban Environment Unit
Division of Policy Development and Law (DPDL)
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
         P.O Box 30552 Nairobi, KENYA
             Tel: (+254 20) 7624735
         Elisa.Dumitrescu@unep.org
             www.unep.org/pcfv

								
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