Fakultät Raumplanung Universität Dortmund
Demography and Social Infrastructure Final Test Paper SPRING Programme 2004/05
SPRING
Submitted by:
Muhammad Aqeel Qureshi
Part 1: Population Projection
Introduction of Study Area
Faisalabad District Faisalabad District is located in the Punjab Province of Pakistan. The total area of the District is of 58.56 square kilometer. It lies between longitude 73° and 74° East, latitude 30° and 31.5° north, at an elevation of 605 feet above sea level. There is no natural boundary between Faisalabad and the adjoining Districts. Faisalabad is bounded by Hafizabad and sheikhupura towards north and northeast, by sheikhupura, okara and sahiwal towards east and southeast, and by Jhang and Toba tek singh towards west and southwest. River chenab flows about 30 km in the north west while river ravi meanders about 40 km off the city in the south east. Lower Chenab canal is the main source of irrigation water, which meets the requirements of 80% of cultivated land. The soil of Faisalabad comprises of alluvial deposits mixed with loess having calcareous characteristics. The soil is generally fertile.
Map 1 : Map showing the location of Faisalabad District. Map 2: Map showing the area and boundaries of District Faisalabad.
Data Base and Data Sources The main source of data was District Census Report of Faisalabad 1998. We have to project the number and the age composition (5 years cohorts) of the population up to the year 2015 (with 5 year intervals). The latest data available for Faisalabad district is of 1998 and it was difficult to make 5 years cohorts up to 2015 taking 1998 Census data as base data. Therefore 1998 Population Data was first projected to 2000 by using SPECTRUM Model to make it as the base data for future projection till 2015 and to make 5 years cohorts. Spectrum 2
Projection Model was used to work the projections. The other sources of data were Census of Population Government of Pakistan, CIA-World Fact Book, website of District Government, Faisalabad, Punjab Development Statistics 2001 and easy projection from Spectrum Model.
Trend (status quo, do-nothing) Scenario (standard or trend fertility decline) Fertility
The Total fertility rate (TFR) means total number of children to a woman. The total fertility rate (TFR) of Faisalabad District is quite high. The TFR in 2000 was 5.22 and the trend is on the lower side and it is expected that it would be 3.9 in 2015. There are number of reasons for high TFR. Some of them are mentioned below: iLow literacy rate. iiLow level of women participation in decision-making. iiiLow level of health facilities. ivHigh infant mortality rate. Table 1: Values of TFR, GRR, NRR, Mean Age of Childbearing and Child – Woman Ratio Description
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Gross Reproductive Rate (GRR) Net Reproductive Rate (NRR) Mean Age of Childbearing Child-woman ratio
2000
5.22 2.51 2.13 28.9 0.62
2005
4.78 2.31 2 29 0.68
2010
4.34 2.11 1.86 29.1 0.63
2015
3.9 1.9 1.71 29 0.58
Mortality
Life Expectancy The average life expectancy in year 2000 was 60.48 and in 2005 it is about 62.41. The trend of life expectancy is towards higher side because of the improved medical facilities. The average life expectancy in 2015 would be 66.28 year.
Infant Mortality Rate (Per 1000 Live Births)
Infant Mortality Rate is quite high as compared to other developing countries. Infant mortality rate in the district was 70.78 in 2000. This infant mortality is declining and the trend shows that it would be 55.15 in the year 2015. The infant mortality rate would decrease in the future because of improved health facilities and increase in the education level. The following table shows the infant mortality rates and life expectancy from year 2000 to year 2015.
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Table 2: Life Expectancy and Infant Mortality Rate. Description Life Expectancy Infant Mortality Rate (Per 1000 live births) 2000 60.48 70.78 2005 62.41 63.80
Years
2010 64.35 56.79 2015 66.28 50.15
Note: The Migration factor is negligible in Faisalabad District; therefore it is not considered in Trend or Development Scenarios.
Population Size and Growth The population of the Faisalabad District according to 1998 District Census Report of Faisalabad was 5.43 million. The 1998 Census is the latest census, therefore first the projection for population Total fertility and Life Expectancy were made till 2000. These projections of 2000 were made as the base data for further projection till 2015. The purpose of doing this exercise is to make 5 years cohorts till 2015. The table below shows the projected Population, TFR and LE from 1998 to 2000. Table 3: Projected Population, TFR and LE From 1998 to 2000. Description Total Population (million) Total Fertility Rate Life Male Expectancy Female 1998 5.43 5.40 59.3 60.1 2000 5.75 5.22 60.1 60.9
The total population of Faisalabad district was 5.75 million in 2000. The present population ( 2005) is projected to 6.56 million with a growth rate of 2.57. This fast growth rate continues and the total population in 2010 and 2015 would be 7.45 and 8.37 million with 2.44 and 2.22 growth rates respectively. The following table gives population and growth rates since 2000: Table 4: Population (in million) and Growth Rates. Description
Total population Male population Female population Growth Rates
2000
5.75 2.99 2.76 2.67
2005
6.56 3.41 3.15 2.57
2010
7.45 3.87 3.58 2.44
2015
8.37 4.35 4.02 2.22
The following line diagram shows the increase of population from 2000 till 2015.
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Diagram 1: Population Increase Since 2000.
Age Structure In 2005 the proportion of the children under 5 is 15.7% of total population. Children under 10 years 27.9%, under 15 year 39.62%, under 20 year 50.75%. the proportion of population of working age groups i.e. 15 – 64 years, were recorded as 56.1% and over 65 year 4%. Women of reproduction ages i.e. 15 – 49 years, were 49.20% of their total population. The same trend continues even in year 2015. Table 5: Population (in million) Age Groups & Sex, 2005. Age Group Total Male Female
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Total 1.03 0.8 0.77 0.73 0.61 0.52 0.42 0.35 0.29 0.25 0.2 0.18 0.13 0.1 0.07 0.04 0.05 6.56 0.54 0.41 0.4 0.39 0.32 0.27 0.22 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.1 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.03 3.41 0.5 0.38 0.38 0.35 0.3 0.26 0.21 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.03 3.15
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As envisaged from age pyramid the population of Faisalabad district is still very young having broad base. The following pyramids show all age groups in 2000 and 20015. Diagram 2: Age Pyramids for the Year 2000 and 2015 (Trend Scenario)
The population of Faisalabad district is very young and the percentage of population over 64 years was just 4% in 2000.
Development (normative, desired) Scenario (rapid fertility decline)
The development of a district depends on its resources. As we know that resources are always limited. Faisalabad District has many resources, but these resources seem to be insufficient for the rapid growing population. Now the main task for Faisalabad District is to control the rapid population growth. The key for controlling the rapid population growth is in rapid fertility decline. In 2000 TFR was 5.22 and in 2005 it is estimated to be 4.78. Now our target is to decrease TFR from 4.78 to 2.25 by the end of year 2015. The trend shows that TFR would be 3.9 by the end of 2015, so we have to work on reducing TFR from 3.9 to 2.25 by year 2015. The following measures would be taken to reduce TFR to 2.25 by the end of year 2015 to control the rapid increase in the population: iEducating people regarding the health issues of mother and children. The focus would be husbands because they have the decision making power in family related matters in this region. To start effective family planning campaign which may involve NGO`s and different community groups. 6
ii-
iii-
To start Population Welfare Programme, which would involve provision of family welfare centers, Mobile Service Units and Reproductive Health Services Centres.
If we strictly follow the above measures then we would be able to reduce the TFR to 2.25 by the year 2015.
Fertility
As we had already discussed above that population size depends on TFR i.e. higher the TFR, higher will be the population. Lower the TFR, lower will be the population. Table 6: Values of TFR, GRR, NRR, Mean Age of Childbearing and Child – Woman Ratio Description
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Gross Reproductive Rate (GRR) Net Reproductive Rate (NRR) Mean Age of Childbearing Child-woman ratio
2000
5.22 2.51 2.13 28.9 0.62
2005
4.78 2.31 2 29 0.68
2010
3.51 1.69 1.50 28.6 0.56
2015
2.25 1.08 0.98 27.4 0.41
Population Size and Growth The decline in TFR has direct effect on population size and growth. the effect of declined TFR could be seen in the following table that population will fall down from 8.37 million to 7.9 million if the TFR is reduced from 3.9 to 2.25 by 2015. Table 7: Population (in million) and Growth Rates (%). Description
Total population Male population Female population Growth Rates
2000
5.75 2.99 2.76 2.67
2005
6.56 3.41 3.15 2.57
2010
7.33 3.80 3.52 1.93
2015
7.90 4.10 3.80 1.19
Age Pyramid The age pyramids of year 2000 and year 2015 have quite different shape. The age pyramid of 2000 has broad base and the percentage of age groups 0 – 4 and 5 – 9 are the maximum, but in the age pyramid of year 2015 the percentage of age group 10 – 14 is the maximum. The base of age pyramid 2015 is less broad than that of 2000. The following diagram shows the age pyramids of years 2000 and 2015:
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Diagram 3: Age pyramids of Years 2000 and 2015 (Development Scenario)
Comparison of Trend and Development Scenario
The comparison of two scenarios can be done in TFR, Population size, growth rate and population structure. The differences in TFR, Population size and growth rate for the year 2015 can be seen in the two scenarios in the following tables and line diagrams. Table 8: Trend & Development Scenarios For Total Fertility Rate Year Scenarios
Trend Scenario Development Scenario 2000 5.22 5.22 2005 4.78 4.78 2010 4.34 3.51 2015 3.9 2.25
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Diagram 4: Trend & Development Scenarios For TFR Trend & Development Scenarios for TFR
6 5 4 TFR 3 2 1 0 2000 2005 Year 2010 2015 Trend Scenario Development Scenario
Table 9: Trend & Development Scenarios For Growth Rate Year Scenarios
Trend Scenario Development Scenario 2000 2.67 2.67 2005 2.57 2.57 2010 2.44 1.93 2015 2.22 1.19
Diagram 5: Trend & Development Scenarios For Growth Rate Trend & Development Scenarios for Growth Rate
3 2.5 Growth Rate 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2000 2005 Year 2010 2015 Trend Scenario Development Scenario
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Table 10: Trend & Development Scenarios For Population Size Year Scenarios
Trend Scenario Development Scenario 2000 5.75 5.75 2005 6.56 6.56 2010 7.45 7.33 2015 8.37 7.9
Diagram 6: Trend & Development Scenarios for Population sizes. Population Size
9 8 Population (million) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000 2005 Year 2010 2015 Development Scenario Trend Scenario
The comparison of the two scenarios show that there is a sharp decline in Total Fertility Rate and Growth rate in development scenario as compared to Trend Scenario. These sharp declines in TFR and Growth Rate do not bring sharp decline of Population size in development scenario as compared to Trend Scenario. The reason for the less decline of population size could be that a major portion of population has shifted to reproductive age. So there would be only a difference of 0.47 million population in 2015 for Development Scenario as compared to Trend Scenario despite of drastic decline of TFR and Growth Rates. Comparison of Trend & Development Scenarios with respect to Age Groups of Year 2015 shows that the age groups of 0 – 4 and 5 – 9 are larger in size in trend scenario as compared to Development Scenario. Otherwise all other age groups in Trend or Development Scenarios have the same size. The comparison can be seen in the following bar diagram.
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Diagram 7: Comparison of Trend & Development Scenarios for Different Age Groups For 2015.
Comparison of Trend & Development Scenarios
1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0
04 51O 9 -1 15 4 -1 20 9 -2 25 4 -2 30 9 -3 35 4 -3 40 9 -4 45 4 -4 50 9 -5 55 4 -5 60 9 -6 65 4 -6 70 9 -7 75 4 -7 9 80 +
Population (millions)
Trend Scenario Development Scenario
Age Groups
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Part II: Planning of Social Infrastructure
Primary Education The projection for Primary education has been made on the basis of Development Scenario because this is the desired situation for the district. The existing Primary education related data for Faisalabad District according to Punjab development Statistics 2001 is given in the table below: Table 11: Primary Education Related Data In Faisalabad District For Year 2000. District Total Number of Primary Schools 2184 Primary School going Children 780000 Enrolment in Primary Schools 546000 Total Number of Primary Teachers 9100
Faisalabad
The information mentioned in above table can be transformed in other form which would tell us what is the Teacher – Student Ratio, Percentage of enrolment and number of students per primary school. The following table shows teacher – student ratio, percentage of enrolment and number of students per primary school in 2000.
Table 12: Teacher – Student Ratio, Percentage of Enrolment and Students per Primary School-2000. District Faisalabad Teacher-Student Ratio 1:60 Percentage of Enrolment 70 Students per Primary School 250
The desired targets for Primary Education in the district are mentioned in the table below: Table 13: Teacher – Student Ratio, Percentage of Enrolment and Students per Primary School-2005 to 2015. Year 2005 2010 2015 Teacher-Student Ratio 1:53 1:47 1:40 Percentage of Enrolment 77 83 90 Students per Primary School 233 217 200
The teacher-student ratio in 2000 was 1:60 and our target is to achieve teacher-student ratio of 1:40 in 2015. the enrolment ratio in primary schools was just 70% in 2000 and we want to make it 90% in 2015. the number of students per primary school were 250 in year 2000, which we want to make it 200 students per primary in 2015.
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On the basis of above mentioned targets for primary education in table 12, future Projection of Primary School going children, the enrollment, teachers required, number of school required and expenditure required in Faisalabad District are given in the table below: Table 14: Projections of Key Primary Education Elements.
Description
Children of Primary School Age Enrollment Teachers Required Number of Schools required Expenditure Required US Dollar (million) 2005 795170 609660 11430 2610 29.46
Year
2010 946470 788690 16900 3640 40.75 2015 891000 801920 20050 4010 44.11
Strategies to Provide Required Primary Education Infrastructure in Faisalabad District.
Primary education is the foundation on which all subsequent stages of education are built and the very basic ingredient for human resource development. Concern over the state of primary education in Faisalabad District, particularly the issue of low enrolment and high dropout rates, need to be tackle carefully. The following strategies are recommended to improve the Primary Education Infrastructure in the district: 1- Public – Private Partnership The public sector lacks the necessary resources and expertise to effectively address and rectify low education indicators. There is need to mobilize private sector and civil society organizations in the financing, management and delivery of education in the district. Incentives will be given to promote Public Private Partnerships (PPP) to flourish in the education sector. The NGOs and various other stakeholders will also be included in the delivery of primary education. 2- Exemption of Taxes Exemption of custom duties and other taxes on import of education equipment/material to institutions, which are recognized, aided or run by the government. 3- Provision of land free or on concessional rates the District Government land can be provided to those people or organizations who want to build and run school on non-profit basis. 13
4- Provision of financing Provision of concessional financing for establishing schools in rural areas. 5- Human Resource Development To improve the standard of teaching in the primary schools. The training of teachers will be conducted time to time. 6- Cost – Sharing (User Fees) A small amount of fees may be charged from the students, so as to maintain the standard of education. However those students who cannot pay the fees will be provided free education.
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