Using GIS to Model Patterns of Urban-Rural Land Use Change by r1R2xl9f

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									Using GIS to Model Patterns
 of Urban-Rural Land Use
         Change
                         Elena Irwin,
                     Assistant Professor
            Dept. of Agricultural, Environmental,
               and Development Economics
                    Ohio State University




  Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources
                                            March 24-26, 2003 – Columbus, Ohio
Outline of Talk

   Land use trends at the
    rural-urban interface
   Modeling land use
    change
   GIS as a modeling tool
     –Exploring patterns of
     land use change
     –Generating spatial
     variables
     –Predicting future land
     use changes

             Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources
What is the Rural-Urban Interface?
•   Exurban: Areas
    beyond the
    suburbs of an
    urban area, but
    within
    commuting
    distance.

      Legend
          Urban High Density
          Urban Low Density
          Suburban
          Exurban
          Rural
                    Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources
           Components of U.S. Rural Population, 1910-90

70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
                                                                           Other
40,000,000
                                                                           Farm
30,000,000
                                                                            Incorporated Place
20,000,000
10,000,000
            0                                                             Source: U.S. Census of
                                                                          Population
          10

          20

          30

          40

          50

          60

          70

          80

          90
        19

        19

        19

        19

        19

        19

        19

        19

        19

Source: Hart, 1995.

                      Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources
Land Use Trends: Ohio

   Increasing low density development
    –   1992-97: Ohio ranked 8th in amount of land converted to
        urban uses (364,800 acres)
    –   1990-2000: Ohio ranked 22nd in population growth
        (506,025 persons)
    –   1982-1997: Amount of urban land consumed per person
        in Ohio increased 25% (from 0.36 to 0.45 acres)

   Farmland Loss
    –   1992-97: Ohio ranked 2nd in the nation in loss of prime
        agricultural land due to development (212,200 acres)



                  Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources
                       Figure 1: Land Use Change in Medina County, 1956-1996




 Legend
 Interstate
                                         1956                                          1971
 State Roads
Undeveloped Land Use
Residential Land Use
Other Urban Land Use




                                         1986                                            1996
                       Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources
Modeling Land Use Change

   Goal
    –   Understanding causes of land conversion to urban
        uses in order to predict how alternative policies will
        alter future land use change patterns.
   Model
    –   Statistical model that uses historical data on land use
        change to estimate the factors that are significant in
        causing conversion of land to urban use
   Approach
    –   Land use change is driven by individual decisions
        about location and land use
            Need a model of individual decisionmaking
    –   Change occurs at an individual parcel level
            Need parcel-level data


                   Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources
Factors Affecting Individual Land Use
Decisions
   Physical attributes of parcel
    –   Soil type
    –   Slope
    –   Land cover
   Location of parcel
    –   Proximity to urban areas
    –   Proximity to employment, retail, recreation
    –   Surrounding land uses
   Public services & policies
    –   Public sewer/water
    –   School district quality
    –   Zoning



                 Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources
Statistical Model

   Observed event: A land parcel is either
    converted to an urban use or is not within
    a certain period of time.
   Statistical model explains this event as a
    result of the many factors (explanatory
    variables) that are hypothesized to
    influence land use conversion decisions.




            Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources
Data

   Parcel land use change
   Parcel characteristics
    –   Physical features
    –   Location
    –   Public services/policies




               Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources
Results of Statistical Model

   Estimates the significance and magnitude
    of each hypothesized factor in terms of its
    importance in causing land use change of
    parcel.
   Results can be used to predict future
    changes in land use pattern
    –   Baseline scenario
            No change in any factor
    –   Alternative scenarios
            How does a change in one of the factors that
             influences land use change alter the predicted land
             use pattern?

                  Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources
Using GIS as a Modeling Tool

   Exploring patterns of land use change
   Generating spatial variables for a
    statistical model of land use change
   Predicting future patterns of land use
    change




            Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources
Exploring Patterns of Land Use Change

   Land use change maps to identify hot
    spots of development
   Using landscape metrics to measure the
    spatial pattern




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Baltimore-Washington Urban Growth
Animation




                                                Source: USGS Urban Dynamics
                                                   Research Program
                                                http://landcover.usgs.gov/urban/data.html




        Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources
Landscape Pattern Metrics




 Amount of fragmentation, dispersion, and other spatial aspects
 of land use pattern can be quantified using landscape pattern
 measures.
 Aspects of pattern include number of patches, mean patch size,
 total edge length, mean nearest neighbor, mean perimeter:area
 ratio
                Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources
Carrion and Irwin (2002): Measuring Land
Use Pattern Change in Medina County, Ohio

   Landscape Pattern Metrics
      –   Four land uses: residential, industrial, commercial
          and agricultural/forested use.
      –   Examples:
             Number of patches, mean patch size, mean nearest
              neighbor

   Results
      –   Residential land use has become more fragmented
          and dispersed over time




              Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources
Number of Ag/Forest Patches Vs. Mean Patch Size
of Ag/Forest Land Uses


          3100                                                           4100

          2900                                                           4000

          2700                                                           3900




                                                                                Num. of Patches
          2500                                                           3800
    MPS




          2300                                                           3700

          2100                                                           3600

          1900                                                           3500                     MPS of
                                                                                                  Undeveloped
          1700                                                           3400                     Class
                                                                                                  Number of
          1500                                                           3300                     Patches
                 1961
                        1966
                               1971
                                      1976
                                             1981
                                                    1986
                                                           1991
                                                                  1996




                    Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources
Mean Nearest Neighbor


        10000

         9000

         8000

         7000

         6000
                                                                                         Residential
  MNN




         5000                                                                            Industrial
                                                                                         Commercial
         4000

         3000

         2000

         1000

           0
                1956   1961   1966   1971    1976   1981    1986    1991   1996




                       Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources
Generating Spatial Variables

   Measuring distance via roads network to
    important destinations (cities, towns,
    recreational areas)
   Using overlays to calculate parcel
    features such as zoning, public sewer and
    water, school district
   Using buffers to calculate neighborhood
    features such as surrounding land uses



            Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources
Predicting Future Land Use Change


   Predicted Probabilities: Map of predicted
    probability assigned to each parcel
    –   Baseline and alternative scenarios


   Predicted Change: Map of predicted
    change in land use of each parcel
    –   Baseline and alternative scenarios




               Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources
                                        Predicted Probability of Conversion
                                   of Undeveloped Land in Medina County, Ohio*


        Legend
          Existing Dev elopm ent

          Da ta not a vaila ble

          Interstates
          State Highways
    Pr edicted Probability (%)
          0 - 10
          10 - 25
          25 - 35
          35 - 45         N
          45 - 55
          55 - 65
          65 - 75
          75 - 85
          85 - 98
5       0
        1           5 Miles
         2
         3
         4
         5
         6
         7
         Meparcdiss1.shp




              * From: Carrion, C. and Irwin, E.G. (2002). "Using a Spatial Economic Model of Land Use
                              Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference Ohio State University Working Paper.
      Conversion to Explain Residential Sprawl at the Rural-Urban Fringe." for Agriculture and Natural Resources
Population Density Change in Ohio’s Landscape




                                                   Table 5: Densities used for Settlement Types


                                                                         Population Density:      Acres per
                                                   Settlement Pattern:   (Persons per sq. mile)   Housing Unit:
                                                   Urban High Density:   More than 5,000          Less than 1/3
                                                   Urban Low Density:    1,000 to 5,000           1/3 to 1.5
                                                   Suburban:             325 to 1,000             1.5 to 5
                                                   Exurban:              40 to 325                5 to 40
         Ohio   Geospatial Technologies Conference Rural:
                                                   for Agriculture and   Less than 40
                                                                         Natural Resources        More than 40
                                                   State Total:          n/a                      n/a
                                Zoning Change Scenario


Predicted development under
both baseline and alternative

Predicted development under
alternative but not baseline

Predicted development under
baseline but not alternative
Predicted to not be developed
under both baseline and
alternative
Existing development in 1996




                                     Scenario: Montville Township increases minimum lot size
                                                 for residential zoning to 3 acres.

                                 Result: Predicted change in total number of acres developed in
                                  Montville Township is decreased by 2,000 acres. This creates
                                spillovers for other townships that absorb additional development.
                          Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources
Conclusions

   Spatial pattern of land use change is
    critical
    –   Impacts of land use change depend on spatial
        pattern of land use change
   GIS is a necessary tool in analyzing
    spatial pattern




               Ohio Geospatial Technologies Conference for Agriculture and Natural Resources

								
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