World Oil Outlook to 2030
Dr. Fatih Birol
Chief Economist
Head of Economic Analysis Division
International Energy Agency
World Energy Outlook Series
l World Energy Outlook 1998
l World Energy Outlook - 1999 Insights: Looking at
Energy Subsidies: Getting the Prices Right
l World Energy Outlook – 2000
l World Energy Outlook – 2001 Insights: Assessing
Today’s Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow’s Growth
l World Energy Outlook – 2002
l World Energy Outlook – 2003 Insights: Global
Energy Investment Outlook (forthcoming)
World Primary Energy Demand
6,000
Oil
5,000
4,000 Natural gas
Mtoe
3,000 Coal
2,000
Hydro power
1,000 Non-hydro renewables
Nuclear power
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Gas grows fastest in absolute terms & non-hydro renewables
fastest in % terms, but oil remains the dominant fuel in 2030
World-Oil Demand
140
120
100
80
mb/d
60
40
20
0
2000 2010 2020 2030
OECD Transition economies Developing countries
Oil demand grows in every region,
fastest in the developing countries
World Oil Demand by Sector
2000 2030
Industry
16 %
Industry
19%
Other
Other sectors
sectors 14%
16%
Power
Generation 6%
Power
generation
10%
Transport
55%
Transport 64%
75 mbd 120 mbd
Around three-quarters of the increase in demand for oil
will come from the transport sector.
World-Oil Production
120
100
80
mb/d
60
40
20
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
OPEC Non-OPEC
Reliance on OPEC oil progressively increases
Change in World-Oil Production
20
15
10
mb/d
5
0
-5
1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030
OPEC Non -OPEC
OPEC producers capture most of the
increase in oil demand after 2010
Net Oil Trade, 2030
5
1
16 1
13
10 3 7
2
46
1 5
6
3 8
1
0
US and Canada Other OECD Europe Africa Indonesia
Mexico Russia Middle East Other East Asia
Brazil Other transition economies Japan, Australia and New Zealand
Net exports
Other Latin America India Korea
European Union Other South Asia China Net imports Mb/d
The Middle East strengthens its position as the
world’s largest oil exporter
Oil-Import Dependence
100
net imports as per cent of oil supply
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
OECD OECD OECD South Asia China East Asia
Pacific Europe N.America
2000 2010 2030
Asia sees the biggest jump in import dependence,
while OECD imports also continue to rise, especially in Europe
Proven Natural Gas Reserves
56.7
6.4 7.7
58.5
11.6
14.9
8.2
World total: 164 tcm at 1 January 2001
Ultimate remaining resources (including proven reserves)
are an estimated 453 - 527 tcm
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
40,000
35,000
30,000
million tonnes of CO2
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
World OECD Transition economies Developing countries
World emissions increase by 1.8 % per year to 38 billion
tonnes in 2030 – 70% above 2000 levels
Implications for the Kyoto
Protocol
Emission WEO
targets for emissions Gap Gap
2010 2010 (%) (Mt CO2)
OECD Annex B countries** 9,662 12,457 28.9 2,795
Russia 2,212 1,829 -17.3 -383
Ukraine & Eastern Europe 1,188 711 -40.2 -477
Total 13,062 14,997 14.8 1,935
* Difference between target emissions and projected emissions as a percentage of target emissions.
Emissions in OECD Annex B countries exceed the 2010
target by 29%, but “hot air” reduces the gap to 15%
Non-conventional oil Prospects
l In recent years the prospects for a major
expansion in NCO production have
increased, particularly of:
u oil sands
u extra-heavy crude (gravity below 100 API)
u oil shales
l Many of these NCO resources are found
in countries outside of the Middle East.
l Their development will have significant
implications for global oil markets.
Non-conventional oil production
8 01
7
%
6 o
f
t
o
5 t
a
l
o
d
b 4 5 i
l
p
m r
o
d
3 u
c
t
oi
2 n
1
0 0
00 02 0 102 0202 03 02
NCO Production % of total oil production
The WEO2002 sees production of NCO jumping
to almost 8 mbd by 2030, this is similar to the current
production of Saudi Arabia.
Constraints to Non-
conventional oil production
l Production is rising sharply yet some
important issues still need to be
addressed:
uenvironmental
usocial
utechnological
umarketing
uinvestment
l The commitment of both the private
sector and governments will be
necessary.
l International oil prices: an important
factor.