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					Greater Anglia
Route Utilisation Strategy
December 2007
2
Foreword



I am pleased to present Network Rail’s Route      Amongst the key improvements proposed by
Utilisation Strategy covering the Greater         this strategy are an additional 1000 seats each
Anglia route. Principally this route covers       day over the “peak period” on London –
the lines into London Liverpool Street and        Norwich services and longer trains on the vital
London Fenchurch Street. It also extends into     London – Stansted – Cambridge corridor. Both
Cambridgeshire, East Anglia, Essex and parts      of these improvements will create additional
of Hertfordshire.                                 space and comfort for existing passengers
                                                  and allow the potential for new passengers to
In November, Network Rail published its
                                                  experience the bene ts of rail travel.
Strategic Business Plan (SBP) for 2009-
2014. This plan explained the extent to which     Across the rest of the route the strategy lays
passenger and freight demand is growing           out clear plans for longer trains and more
across the country, and set out Network Rail’s    frequent services to many destinations,
ambitious agenda for growing the capacity of      creating a much improved overall service for
the railway to meet this customer demand.         customers. The bene ts are not just con ned
                                                  to passenger traf c either, with plans set out
There are few places where this growth can
                                                  to create additional train paths for freight
be seen more in evidence than on the Greater
                                                  trains and enhance the gauge to allow freight
Anglia route, with London Liverpool Street
                                                  services to carry larger “boxes”.
already Britain’s busiest railway station with
more than 120million visitors per year. This      This strategy was initially published as a draft
strategy builds on the SBP and offers a more      for consultation in April 2007 and since then
detailed perspective on how the capacity of the   has been subject to a great deal of further
railway can be grown and the quality of service   work and analysis, listening to the feedback
improved, across the Greater Anglia route.        received during the consultation process. All of
                                                  this work has been carried out in collaboration
                                                  with rail industry partners and wider
                                                  stakeholders. I thank everyone involved, and
                                                  everyone who responded to the consultation,
                                                  for their contribution.



                                                                                      Iain Coucher
                                                                                   Chief Executive




                                                                                                     3
    Executive summary



        Improved rail capacity is a central element           additional infrastructure. The recommended
        of the Government’s transport plans for               strategy comprises a range of measures for
        effective delivery of its objectives. The aim is to   meeting growth, some of which will require
        provide properly performing train services that       considerable investment.
        accommodate passenger and freight growth in
        a way that maximises overall value for money          Freight
        and is affordable.                                    The Great Eastern Main Line (GEML) and the
                                                              Tilbury Loop – North London Line routes are
        With the forecast housing growth contained in
                                                              heavily used by freight train operators. The
        the draft East of England Plan and the London
                                                              expansion of Felixstowe, Bathside Bay and
        Plan driving passenger demand, and the
                                                              London Gateway Ports is anticipated to trigger
        planned expansion of the Ports of Felixstowe
                                                              a substantial increase in deep sea container
        and London Gateway Port (Shell Haven)
                                                              traf c on both routes. More aggregate traf c is
        driving freight growth, the long-term use of the
                                                              expected on these routes, especially running
        routes in the Greater Anglia area needs urgent
                                                              to and from Stratford and Thameside. The
        consideration.
                                                              RUS looks at the forecast volumes of traf c
                                                              on these routes and proposes a series of
        Context
                                                              enhancements in order to meet this growth.
        The Greater Anglia Route Utilisation Strategy
        (RUS) encompasses the Thameside, Great
                                                              Summary of Strategy
        Eastern (GE) and West Anglia (WA) routes
                                                              The strategy, which has emerged from detailed
        and covers the period to 2019. In order to tie
                                                              analysis and extensive consultation work, is
        in with the Regional Spatial Strategy and the
                                                              developed in Chapter 9 of this document and a
        Government’s recently published White Paper,
                                                              summary of the strategy (reproduced from that
        the RUS also looks forward to 2021 and
                                                              chapter) is presented below.
        beyond.
                                                              Strategy in Control Period 3
        Passenger                                             (to 2009)
        Crowding at peak times is a key issue on these
                                                              The most pressing issue on the routes is
        routes. Passenger counts show that crowding is
                                                              providing capacity for rapidly increasing
        heavy on all routes into London and a number
        of regional centres. The worst overcrowding           numbers of passengers during the peak and
        in the region occurs on West Anglia services          accommodating freight traf c. A number of
        running from Cambridge to Liverpool Street            performance issues have also been raised.
        in the morning peak. The Regional Spatial             Extra track capacity cannot be delivered in
        Strategy and the London Plan allocate high            CP3. However, the development work will
        levels of housing and employment to the region        start for all of the measures proposed for
        and this is forecast to result in high rates of       implementation in CP4. Smaller scale works
        growth in demand for rail services in the coming      for delivery in CP3 will concentrate on the
        years, especially on the West Anglia route.           delivery of performance improvements.
        There is some scope to meet demand without




4
Performance improvement schemes that are           trains. On the Tilbury Loop and the Ockendon
recommended are:                                   branch, extending the platforms to handle
                                                   12-car trains is recommended: First, on the
   Alterations to signal spacing at West Ham
                                                   Ockendon branch as crowding is worse now
   in order to allow more trains to call without
                                                   on trains that serve this route; and then on the
   affecting performance.
                                                   route via Rainham so that longer trains can be
   Extension of the bay platform at Grays to       operated as demand dictates and as rolling
   handle 8-car trains.                            stock becomes available.
   Linespeed improvements between Barking          On the GE route, replacement of the rolling
   and Upminster and on the rural routes.          stock used on services running between
   Bi-directional signalling between Marks Tey     Norwich and Liverpool St with new trains is
   and Colchester.                                 proposed. The introduction of a modern eet
                                                   of rolling stock suitably con gured to carry
   Reviewing the Rules of the Plan and
                                                   passengers on this important inter-city route
   adjusting them appropriately to improve the
                                                   is recommended. It is proposed to use rolling
   robustness of the timetable.
                                                   stock that is not hauled by a locomotive with a
A number of these items are already in             DVT unit and it is expected that this can add
development.                                       around 1,000 seats during the morning peak
                                                   while maintaining levels of passenger comfort
Strategy in Control Period 4                       and providing enough seats for passengers
(2009 – 2014)                                      who now have to stand. It was established in
During CP4 increasing service frequency on         the RUS Draft for Consultation that there is a
the Great Eastern route and train lengthening       nancial business case for implementing this
on all three routes into London during the         element of the strategy.
morning peak is recommended. This requires         It is proposed that up to an additional three
modest changes to infrastructure. Works to         trains an hour on the GEML operating between
improve performance on the West Anglia and         outer-suburban stations and London Liverpool
Great Eastern routes are planned to be carried     Street are introduced. One additional train an
out. Initial work on the development of the        hour would run from Southend and two on the
major capacity scheme on the West Anglia           main line to serve Chelmsford and Colchester,
route is also planned. The strategy outlined       though the decision on where these trains
here is entirely consistent with the Strategic     start in the morning will be a decision for the
Business Plan submission to the Of ce of Rail      operator and funder. Paths for these trains
Regulation (ORR) and is required to meet the       can be released by calling all services on
Department for Transport’s (DfT) High Level        the main line at Stratford. To accomplish this
Output Speci cation (HLOS) requirements.           it is proposed that Stratford Platform 10A is
On the Thameside route more 12-car services        extended to accommodate 12-car trains so
are proposed to be run on the main line route      that the train service frequency increase can
during the morning and evening peak periods.       be realised without restricting the quantum
The platforms already accommodate 12-car           of trains that operate at full (12-car) length.




                                                                                                      5
    Calling all services at Stratford will also         recommended to facilitate this. Some track
    improve connectivity by offering interchange        circuit works are also necessary.
    with London Underground, London Overground
                                                        It is proposed that running trains of up to
    and DLR services to all passengers on the GE
                                                        9-car length on all West Anglia inner-suburban
    route. This is expected to even out passenger
                                                        services (i.e. Chingford, En eld Town,
    loadings on trains (those that call at Stratford
                                                        Cheshunt via Southbury and Hertford East
    are more crowded than those that do not) and
                                                        services) to accommodate peak demand is
    alleviate station congestion at Liverpool Street.
                                                        re-introduced. Shorter trains would continue to
    The extension of the Fambridge Loop on the
                                                        serve inner stations off-peak. This will require
    Southminster branch is also proposed to allow
                                                        some minor works at stations along the routes
    the operation of additional 12-car trains from
                                                        to ensure that modern standards are met
    Southminster giving the operator the exibility
                                                        though most platforms and the berthing at
    to allocate rolling stock ef ciently to meet
                                                        Chingford can handle 9-car trains already. The
    demand and ensure that full length trains can
                                                        use of selective door opening (SDO) at Stoke
    run on this route. The operation of the extra
                                                        Newington is recommended where a platform
    trains will require power supply upgrades and
                                                        extension would otherwise be needed requiring
    additional berthing.
                                                        extensive work (estimated to cost around £20
    Two extra trains an hour on the GE route from       million). It is recommended that the minor
    Chadwell Heath to Liverpool St are proposed         works are carried out and then that the rolling
    as well as starting services that currently run     stock is replaced as it comes up for renewal or
    from Ilford at Chadwell Heath to better serve       is cascaded to other routes. A eet with SDO
    passengers at inner-suburban stations. To           capability will be required. Consideration should
    accomplish this, construction of a turn-back        also be given to the internal con guration of the
    facility at Chadwell Heath is recommended to        rolling stock. High passenger capacity stock
    maintain or improve performance.                    (such as that being built for operation on the
                                                        NLL) would help meet the predicted increases
    The replacement of the OLE on the GE route
                                                        in passenger numbers on the inner-suburban
    from Liverpool St to Chelmsford and Southend
                                                        routes over the longer term and improve train
    is proposed to signi cantly reduce delays.
                                                        performance at peak times.
    It is proposed that 12-car trains are introduced
                                                        It is proposed to introduce a shuttle service
    on West Anglia outer-suburban services
                                                        operating between Cheshunt and Seven Sisters
    operating between Cambridge and Stansted
                                                        in peak hours as demand necessitates. The
    Airport and London Liverpool Street. The peak
                                                        building of a power operated turnback at Seven
    services running from Cambridge are the most
                                                        Sisters will be required to facilitate this with
    crowded in the Greater Anglia RUS area and
                                                        acceptable performance. The turnback will also
    very high rates of growth are predicted on the
                                                        serve to improve performance during perturbed
    route as the M11 corridor and Stansted Airport
                                                        running on the Southbury Loop. The shuttle
    are developed. It is recommended that all
                                                        service will permit the provision of four trains an
    remaining platforms on the route are extended
                                                        hour at all stations on the Southbury Loop.
    to handle 12-car trains (a number of the busier
    stations already have 12-car platforms) and         The strategy recommendations would enlarge
    a new island platform be built at Cambridge.        the eets of passenger trains operated by c2c
    This will allow the exibility to provide            and ‘one’ railway. Analysis has shown that
    services where demand dictates and the              additional stabling facilities would be required
    island platform at Cambridge will allow 12-car      at Harwich Parkeston Quay, Cambridge (or
    services to operate on both the West Anglia         Orient Way or elsewhere in West Anglia)
    and Great Northern routes. Additional berthing      including CET, tanking and staff facilities.
    capacity and upgrades to power supply are           A review of the capacity and provision of




6
light maintenance facilities would also be         the Ipswich – Lowestoft service to hourly has
appropriate across all routes in the region.       also been examined but this improvement
                                                   requires detailed assessment of level
The removal of at-grade crossings on the
                                                   crossings. This work is in hand, but it is not
WAML to improve performance on the route
                                                   possible for frequency enhancements on the
and as part of the early works for four-tracking
                                                   East Suffolk Line to be a recommendation
the route is recommended. The removal
                                                   in this RUS in absence of the study results.
and replacement where appropriate of three
                                                   Further improvements to services between
level crossings between Tottenham Hale and
                                                   Cambridge and Norwich have been looked at
Waltham Cross has been evaluated (using
                                                   but additional infrastructure would be required
the RSSB model) and found to demonstrate
                                                   to enable these services to operate. However,
value for money as a stand-alone road/
                                                   if road pricing is to be implemented in Norwich
rail performance scheme. As a result, it is
                                                   and/or Cambridge additional funding would
recommended that the level crossings are
                                                   be available to provide increased capacity to
removed/replaced regardless of whether
                                                   serve these cities.
funding is committed for the capacity
enhancement proposed in CP5.                       During CP4 further development and
                                                   implementation of performance projects,
It is proposed that freight growth is
                                                   including the doubling of Haughley Junction,
accommodated on both the GEML and on the
                                                   removing the restrictions on Class 6 freight
cross country route. The opportunity to run
                                                   trains and the full commissioning of Ely West
more trains via the GEML is limited as many
                                                   Curve is recommended. The development of
of the off-peak freight paths (two an hour) are
                                                   further small scale enhancements to improve
already used and it is therefore anticipated
                                                   train performance to support meeting the
that growth will be focussed on the cross
                                                   HLOS reliability speci cation is also proposed.
country route. Gauge clearance and works at
Ipswich Yard are already committed (funded         Access to the Network was also highlighted
through the TIF and a Section 106 planning         as a gap in the RUS. A range of measures
agreement with Hutchison Ports UK). Further        is proposed to improve access to the railway
gauge and capacity increases are proposed          including: providing additional car parking; and
to provide at least ve additional commercially     building new stations to serve developments
usable paths a day to the WCML, three on top       on the fringes of existing settlements, subject
of that between Ipswich and Peterborough           to additional funding being raised – especially
and nine additional usable paths a day to          from developers and train operators.
South Yorkshire. This scheme is currently in
development and is funded from the TIF.            Strategy in Control Period 5
                                                   (2014 – 2019)
On the cross country services it is
recommended that peak capacity on local            On each of the routes into London the
services is increased by the TOCs in line          continuation of train lengthening through
with demand, making use of available rolling       CP5 to deliver additional capacity to
stock. The case for increasing service             accommodate increasing passenger demand is
frequency to hourly has been examined and          recommended. It is anticipated that most train
it is recommended that this is implemented         lengthening in CP5 will be during the shoulder
between Ipswich and Peterborough in                peak hours (as most or all high-peak trains will
conjunction with industry funders and a review     be running at full length by then) and so will be
of the timetable to ensure that the quantum        less effective at providing for passenger needs
of cross country freight paths intended by         than the train lengthening proposed for CP4.
the proposed upgrade are delivered. Moving




                                                                                                       7
    On West Anglia the running of up to an               work will include improvements at Leicester
    additional six trains an hour at peak times is       and will enable at least 14 daily paths to be
    proposed. Two of these would run through to          available between Ipswich and the WCML.
    London Liverpool Street and four would run
                                                         Crossrail is due to be operational during CP5.
    to Stratford as an alternative terminus. It is
                                                         A key feature of this scheme is the delivery
    anticipated that this will serve the proposed
                                                         of 10-car running on GE inner services and
    Stratford City Development, relieve crowding
                                                         the running of these on new lines through
    on services to Liverpool St by providing a link
                                                         central London. The RUS supports the outputs
    to the LUL Victoria Line at Tottenham Hale
                                                         of Crossrail and the rail industry is working
    and enhancing connectivity by providing new
                                                         with the scheme’s promoters to ensure that
    links to the LUL Central and Jubilee Lines
                                                         capacity is preserved for other passenger and
    and the DLR at Stratford. It is recommended
                                                         freight services alongside those planned to
    that the WAML route via Tottenham Hale is
                                                         use the new infrastructure. A further advantage
    four-tracked between Coppermill Junction
                                                         of the scheme is the capacity that will be
    and Broxbourne Junction to provide adequate
                                                         released between Stratford and Liverpool St.
    capacity to facilitate the extra services. A
    second rail tunnel will need to be built and an      Strategy after Control Period 5
    additional platform edge provided to increase
                                                         (from 2019)
    capacity into and out of Stansted Airport so
                                                         The capacity released on the GE route from
    allowing some extra trains to run between
                                                         the diversion of inner-suburban services to
    the airport and Liverpool St. This proposal
                                                         Crossrail could be used to continue West
    provides a long term solution to the predicted
                                                         Anglia services to Liverpool St via Stratford
    increasing passenger demand on this route
                                                         (though bene ts from this have not been
    that is anticipated as the M11 corridor and
                                                         included in the assessment of the business
    Stansted Airport are developed.
                                                         case of the strategy). This would require
    The strategy recommendations would enlarge           moving the lines across at Stratford or the
    the eets of passenger trains operated by             construction of a grade separated junction to
    c2c and ‘one’ railway. Analysis has shown            link the WA route with the ‘E’ lines. Along with
    that additional stabling facilities would be         the four-tracking (that has been established
    required at Gidea Park and Ilford, in line with      offers value for money by itself) this could
    the proposals in the Crossrail project, including    be used to provide a signi cant number of
    CET, tanking and staff facilities. A review of the   additional inner-suburban services to
    capacity and provision of light maintenance          operate from West Anglia to Liverpool St.
    facilities would also be appropriate across all      The construction of the proposed Hall Farm
    routes in the region.                                Curve to link the Chingford route to Stratford
    Service frequency improvements to the                would permit the running of Chingford services
    Norwich – Cambridge service (to half hourly)         to Liverpool St via Stratford and release
    has been assessed. The work showed that a            capacity through Hackney Downs and
    half hourly service would not offer value for        Bethnal Green.
    money until Ely North Junction is doubled and        On the GE outer services the opportunity to
    so it is proposed that the service should be         increase capacity at the busiest times of the
    considered for implementation when renewal           day will be limited once the options proposed
    of the junction is due (during CP5).                 in CP4 have been implemented. It is proposed
    Further upgrading work is recommended on the         to investigate alternatives to meet longer term
    cross country route for freight during CP5. This     passenger demand growth. One proposal
                                                         put forward during consultation originated in




8
the London to Ipswich Multi – Modal Study which
suggested four-tracking the line between Ipswich and
Chelmsford and then building a new line across to
meet the LUL Central Line. This would in turn need to
be enhanced to allow additional services to run through
to Leytonstone. At Leytonstone the services could then
access Crossrail 2 (once it has been built) and run on
to central London. No development work has been
undertaken for this proposal as part of this RUS.

As freight growth continues further upgrading will
also be required on the cross country route to
remove further bottlenecks.

Conclusions
The strategy contains a range of measures that
make effective and ef cient use of rail capacity,
and develop that capacity in accordance with the
requirements of those who fund the railway. These
measures have been selected on the basis of
their value for money, deliverability and potential
affordability. Some measures proposed have no
material cost; some will cover their costs nancially;
and others will require investment that is justi ed by
economic bene ts. The strategy for each route and
the overall strategy have been appraised using DfT
criteria and values. Strong business cases justify
the required investment on each corridor and as an
overall strategy for the region.

The RUS considers the relationship between
the proposals and the Thameslink and Crossrail
projects. The plans are entirely compatible and
complementary. It also takes account of the proposed
development of Stansted Airport and Felixstowe,
Bathside Bay and London Gateway Ports.

On-going development work from the RUS was used
to inform the Strategic Business Plan, which forms
the industry’s response to the Government’s HLOS.
The proposals in this RUS are entirely consistent
with the SBP submission. The proposals for Control
Period 4 are required to meet the HLOS metrics.




                                                          9
     Contents



         1.     Background                                                             12
         1.1    Introduction                                                           12
         1.2    Structure of the document                                              14

         2.     Scope and planning context                                             16
         2.1    Geographic scope                                                       16
         2.2    Economic context                                                       16
         2.3    Timeframe                                                              16
         2.4    Planning context – Department for Transport (DfT)                      18
         2.5    East of England Regional Assembly and the draft East of England Plan   18
         2.6    Greater London Authority and Transport for London                      19
         2.7    Linkages to other planning strategies                                  19
         2.8    Assumptions about other schemes                                        21

         3.     Current capacity, demand and delivery                                  22
         3.1    Train operators                                                        22
         3.2    Pro le of the freight market                                           22
         3.3    Pro le of the passenger market                                         28
         3.4    Stations                                                               43
         3.5    Berthing                                                               45
         3.6    Infrastructure                                                         46
         3.7    Current network capacity and utilisation                               47
         3.8    Performance                                                            54
         3.9    Engineering Access – current situation                                 58
         3.10   Summary of baseline gaps and issues                                    60

         4.     Forecast of change – wider demand                                      62
         4.1    Context                                                                62
         4.2    Changes to population, housing and employment                          62
         4.3    Freight growth issues by commodity                                     68
         4.4    Transport proposals and enhancement aspirations                        72
         4.5    Regional/Local funding                                                 74
         4.6    Summary of gaps identi ed                                              76

         5.     Forecast of change – predicted demand increases                        78
         5.1    Introduction                                                           78
         5.2    Passenger demand                                                       78
         5.3    Freight demand                                                         88
         5.4    Summary of gaps                                                        95




10
6.     Forecasts of change –
       infrastructure and train services                96
6.1    Introduction                                      96
6.2    Recently completed schemes                        96
6.3    Planned schemes                                   96
6.4    Renewals                                          99

7.     Strategic options                                100
7.1    Summary of gaps                                  100
7.2    Option de nition                                 101
7.3    Assessment of options                            104
7.4    Summary                                          122

8.     Consultation process and overview                124
8.1    The Draft for Consultation                       124
8.2    Consultation responses                           124
8.3    Key themes in the consultation responses         126

9.     Strategy                                         128
9.1    Introduction                                     128
9.2    Key issues addressed                             128
9.3    Recommended strategy                             131
9.4    Passenger service proposals                      136
9.5    Freight schemes                                  144
9.6    Contingent projects                              146
9.7    Ongoing workstreams                              147
9.8    Alternative growth scenarios                     148

10. Next steps                                          150
10.1   Introduction                                     150
10.2   Network Rail Route Plans                         150
10.3   Access Charges Review                            150
10.4   High Level Output Speci cation (HLOS)            150
10.5   Ongoing access to the network                    150
10.6   Review                                           151

Appendices                                              152
A:     Rural routes – loadings on busiest trains        153
B:     Berthing summary                                 164
C:     Congested stations and station facilities data   166
D:     Delay data                                       174
E:     Freight path analysis by commodity               178
F:     GEML capacity utilisation                        180
G:     Glossary of terms                                183




                                                              11
     1. Background



                     1.1 Introduction
                                                                                          “the effective and ef cient use
                     1.1.1
                                                                                          and development of the capacity
                     Following the Rail Review in 2004 and
                                                                                          available, consistent with funding
                     the Railways Act 2005, The Of ce of Rail
                     Regulation (ORR) modi ed Network Rail’s
                                                                                          that is, or is reasonably likely to
                     network licence in June 2005 to require                              become, available during the period
                     the establishment of RUSs across the                                 of the route utilisation strategy
                     network. Simultaneously, the ORR published                           and with the licence holder’s
                     guidelines on RUSs. A RUS is de ned                                  performance of the duty”.
                     in Condition 7 of the network licence as,                            Extract from ORR Guidelines on Route Utilisation
                     in respect of the network or a part of the                           Strategies, June 2005

                     network1, a strategy which will promote the
                     route utilisation objective.The route utilisation
                     objective is de ned as:




     1   The de nition of network in Condition 7 of Network Rail’s network licence includes, where the licence holder has any estate or interest in,
         or right over a station or light maintenance depot, such station or light maintenance depot.



12
1.1.2                                                1.1.4
The “duty” referred to in the objective is Network   The process is designed to be inclusive. Joint
Rail’s general duty under Licence Condition 7 in     work is encouraged between industry parties,
relation to the operation, maintenance, renewal      who share ownership of each RUS through
and development of the network. The ORR              its Industry Stakeholder Management Group.
Guidelines also identify two purposes of RUSs,       There is also extensive informal consultation
and state that Network Rail should balance the       outside the rail industry by means of a Wider
need for predictability with the need to enable      Stakeholder Group.
innovation. Such strategies should:
                                                     1.1.5
                                                     The ORR guidelines require options to be
 a) “enable Network Rail and
                                                     appraised. This is initially undertaken using the
 persons providing services relating
                                                     DfT’s appraisal criteria and, in Scotland, the
 to railways better to plan their
                                                     Scottish Executive’s STAG appraisal criteria.
 businesses, and funders better to                   To support this appraisal work RUSs seek to
 plan their activities; and                          capture implications for all industry parties
 b) set out feasible options for                     and wider societal implications in order to

 network capacity, timetable outputs                 understand which options maximise net industry
                                                     and societal bene t, rather than that of any
 and network capability, and funding
                                                     individual organisation or affected group.
 implications of those options for
 persons providing services to                       1.1.6
 railways and funders.”                              RUSs occupy a particular place in the planning
                                                     activity for the rail industry. They utilise
 Extract from ORR Guidelines on Route Utilisation
 Strategies, June 2005                               available input from processes such as the
                                                     DfT’s Regional Planning Assessments and
1.1.3                                                Wales Planning Assessment, and Transport
The guidelines also set out principles               Scotland’s Scotland Planning Assessment.
for RUS development and explain how                  The recommendations of a RUS and the
Network Rail should consider the position            evidence of relationships and dependencies
of the railway funding authorities, the likely       revealed in the work to reach them in turn form
changes in demand and the potential                  an input to decisions made by industry funders
for changes in supply. Network Rail has              and suppliers on issues such as franchise
developed a RUS Manual which consists of             speci cations, investment plans or the High
a consultation guide and a technical guide.          Level Output Speci cations.
These explain the processes we will use
to comply with the Licence Condition and
the guidelines. These and other documents
relating to individual RUSs and the overall
RUS programme are available on our website
at www.networkrail.co.uk.




                                                                                                         13
     1.1.7                                                 issues are highlighted. In Chapters 4 and 5, the
     Since the Greater Anglia (GA) RUS Draft for           drivers of change in future years are considered,
     Consultation was published, the Government            and estimates of future demand are presented
     has published the High Level Output                   together with the aspirations of stakeholders.
     Speci cation (HLOS) within its recent White
                                                           1.2.4
     Paper “Delivering a Sustainable Railway”. The
                                                           Chapter 6 discusses the schemes for
     document lays down the capacity, safety and
                                                           enhancement and improvement on the
     reliability targets for the industry to meet during
                                                           routes covered by the study, as well as those
     Control Period (CP) 4 up to 2014, as well as
                                                           on adjacent routes. This helps to identify
     its view on long term plans for the industry.
                                                           the bene ts which will ow from these
     In order to respond to the HLOS and the
                                                           improvements, as well as the potential for
     White Paper Network Rail has published its
                                                           synergy between committed schemes and
     Strategic Business Plan (SBP), which details
                                                           those developed by the RUS.
     the schemes (developed in the RUS) to meet
     the HLOS targets. The SBP also contains the           1.2.5
     rail industry’s view on longer term strategy.         A key step in the process is the sifting of the
     The nal version of the RUS therefore not              issues and analysis of the future year forecasts
     only proposes the strategies required to meet         in order to identify gaps and develop options
     growth within the original RUS timescales             for addressing them. These gaps and options
     but also contains the view on the longer term         are appraised in Chapter 7.
     strategy for meeting strong regional growth.          1.2.6
     1.1.8                                                 Chapter 8 covers the consultation process,
     Network Rail will take account of the                 including a summary of the responses
     recommendations from the RUSs when                    received and how these are taken into account
     carrying out its activities; particularly they will   in the nal document.
     be used to help to inform the allocation of           1.2.7
     capacity on the network through application of        Chapter 9 deals with the strategy itself
     the normal Network Code processes.                    and covers the key considerations and
     1.1.9                                                 recommendations for both a better use of
     The ORR will take account of established              resources and investment proposals for
     RUSs when exercising its functions.                   meeting growth. The recommendations are
                                                           summarised in terms of short, medium and
     1.2 Structure of the document                         long term interventions. The document also
     1.2.1                                                 shows how these interventions meet the HLOS
     The remainder of this chapter describes the           targets as well as describing the strategy for
     structure of the RUS.                                 meeting long term growth.

     1.2.2                                                 1.2.8
     Chapter 2 covers the geographic scope of              Finally Chapter 10 discusses the mechanisms
     the RUS, the time horizon and the planning            for implementing the recommendations in the RUS.
     context within which it is being developed.           1.2.9
     1.2.3                                                 The appendices contain supporting analysis
     The current capabilities and usage of the             on the options developed in the RUS.
     strategic routes within the Greater Anglia area
     are summarised in Chapter 3, drawing on input
     from key industry stakeholders, and particular




14
15
     2. Scope and planning context



         2.1 Geographic scope                             The RUS considers the effect of options for

         2.1.1                                            the study area on other adjacent routes and

         The Greater Anglia RUS covers the whole of       vice versa.

         East Anglia and includes the Thameside route,
                                                          2.2 Economic context
         the Great Eastern and the West Anglia Main
         Lines (WAML), as well as the rural branches.     2.2.1
                                                          The area covered by the GA RUS is one of
         2.1.2
                                                          the fastest growing and most economically
         The RUS coverage by strategic route is
                                                          important in the country. The nancial districts
         as follows:
                                                          of London are within the catchment area of the
         Strategic Route 5 – West Anglia (WA):            RUS and these bring substantial bene ts to
                                                          the UK and its economy. London is 25 percent
            Liverpool St – Kings Lynn
                                                          more productive than the rest of the UK and
            Southbury Loop and the WA branches            makes a net contribution of between £9billion
            (Chingford, En eld Town, Hertford East        and £15billion to the national exchequer.
            and Stansted Airport)
                                                          2.2.2
            Hitchin – Shepreth Branch Jn, south           The RUS area also includes key ports, with
            of Cambridge (in conjunction with the         Felixstowe being the country’s largest container
            ECML RUS)                                     port handling around 40 percent of the UK
            Haughley Jn – Ely – Peterborough              deep sea container trade. With so many of
                                                          the goods consumed by the country being
            Cambridge – Chippenham Jn, east of
                                                          manufactured overseas the container traf c is
            Newmarket
                                                          vital to the national economy. Other economic
            Ely – Trowse Jn, south of Norwich             drivers include the growth in the West Anglia
                                                          and Thames Gateway corridors as well as the
            Coppermill Jn, north of Clapton – Stratford
                                                          planned expansion of Stansted airport.
         Strategic Route 6 (part) – Thameside:
                                                          2.2.3
            Fenchurch St – Shoeburyness (including        Good rail links between the region and the
            the Tilbury Loop via Rainham and the          capital to serve the jobs market, as well
            branch via Ockendon)                          as capacity to ensure the smooth ow of
         Strategic Route 7 – Great Eastern (GE):          container traf c from the container ports are
                                                          thus key themes of this RUS.
            Liverpool St – Norwich (GE Main Line (GEML)

            GE suburban branches (Romford,                2.3 Timeframe
            Southend, Southminster, Clacton,              2.3.1
            Walton, Harwich and Braintree)                The RUS makes proposals for the period to
                                                          2019 in the context of likely requirements over
            GE rural routes (the Felixstowe, East
                                                          the next 30 years.
            Suffolk, Lowestoft, Great Yarmouth,
            Sheringham and Sudbury branches)




16
Greater Anglia Rail Utilisation Strategy – Geographic Scope
Key

             Single line
                                                                                                                      Cromer
             Double track                                                                          Sheringham
             Multi Track
             Regional interchanges


                                                                                                                                  Great
                            KINGS LYNN                                                                                           Yarmouth
                                                                                          NORWICH


                                Middleton Towers




                                                                                                                               Lowestoft

                                               Thetford                                                 Diss
 Peterborough Whitemoor
                 Yard




                                                                                                                                   Sizewell
                   ELY



                                                                 Bury St Edmunds
                                                                                                                                    Felixstowe
                             CAMBRIDGE
                                                                                                               IPSWICH




                                                                                                                       Harwich
                                STANSTED                                                                            Parkeston Quay
      Letchworth
                                AIRPORT                                       Sudbury
                                                                                             Manningtree
                                                                                                                                   Harwich
                                                                                                                                    Town
                                                                                                               COLCHESTER
       Hertford East        BISHOPS STORTFORD                     Braintree

                                                                                                                                      Walton-on-
                             Harlow Mill                                                               Colchester                     the-Naze
                                                                                                         Town
                            Harlow Town                                                            Marks
                                                                                                   Tey                           Clacton
         Enfield Town       Broxbourne
                                                                                          Witham

                                                                   Chelmsford
                                 Chingford

                                                             Shenfield                                              Southminster
               Seven                     Walthamstow
               Sisters                   Central
                                                       Romford

      LONDON
  LIVERPOOL STREET

                                                                                                                     Southend Victoria
                             Stratford                       Barking     Upminster        Pitsea
                                                                                                                                      Shoeburyness
                                                                               Basildon                        Southend
         LONDON                                                                                                 Central
                                                                                             Thames Haven
      FENCHURCH STREET
                                                                          Grays
                                                                                          Tilbury Freight
                                                                                          Container Terminal




                                                                                                                                                     17
     2.4 Planning context - Department                    Make more use of previously developed
     for Transport (DfT)                                  land and existing buildings, and use
                                                          land more ef ciently, in meeting future
     2.4.1
                                                          development needs.
     The Government’s White Paper “Delivering a
     Sustainable Railway” and High Level Output           Meet the region’s identi ed housing
     Speci cation (HLOS) (for 2009 – 2014)                needs, and in particular provide suf cient
     were published in July 2007. The RUS                 affordable housing.
     recommendations are designed to inform the
                                                          Protect and enhance the built and historic
     rail industry’s response to the Government’s
                                                          environment and encourage good quality
     requirements within the HLOS timeframe and
                                                          design and use of sustainable construction
     over the longer term.
                                                          methods for all new development.

     2.5 East of England Regional                         Protect and enhance the natural
     Assembly and the draft East of                       environment, including its biodiversity and
     England Plan                                         landscape character.

     2.5.1                                                Minimise the demand for use of resources,
     In 2004 the East of England Regional                 particularly water, energy supplies,
     Assembly issued their draft Plan (covering the       minerals, aggregates, and other natural
     growth of population, housing and employment         resources, whether nite or renewable, by
     in the Region) for consultation. In response to      encouraging ef cient use, re-use, or use
     the consultation, the Secretary of State issued      of recycled alternatives, and trying to meet
     revised growth numbers in December 2006.             needs with minimal impact.
     The East of England’s draft Plan also sets out
                                                          Minimise the environmental impact of
     the Region’s objectives:
                                                          travel, by reducing the need to travel,
        Increase prosperity and employment                encouraging the use of environmentally
        growth to meet identi ed employment               friendly modes of transport, and widening
        needs of the region, and achieve a more           the choice of modes.
        sustainable balance between workers and
                                                          Ensure that the infrastructure programmes,
        jobs.
                                                          whether for transport, utilities or social
        Improve social inclusion and access               infrastructure, will meet current de ciencies
        to employment, services, leisure and              and development requirements; and that
        tourist facilities among those who are            the responsible agencies commit the
        disadvantaged.                                    resources needed to implement these
                                                          programmes and co-ordinate delivery with
        Maintain and enhance cultural diversity
                                                          development.
        while addressing the distinctive needs of
        different parts of the region.                    Minimise ooding risk.

        Increase the regeneration and renewal of       Thus the main thrust of the regional objectives
        disadvantaged areas.                           is to cater for growth in a sustainable way
                                                       by meeting housing and employment
        Deliver more integrated patterns of land
                                                       needs, whilst minimising the impact on the
        use, movement, activity and development,
                                                       environment. As the region seeks to achieve a
        including employment and housing.
                                                       better balance between population and jobs by
        Sustain and enhance the vitality and           providing access to local employment, the size
        viability of town centres.                     of the population growth in various parts of the
                                                       region means that there will a strong need for
                                                       out commuting to London.




18
Rail has a key role to play by providing an             2.6.3
environmentally friendly mode of transport for          Objectives 2 and 5 are relevant to the
access to jobs in London, as well as improved           development of the freight services which
links to jobs, services and leisure facilities          operate through the capital, whilst transiting
within the region. In addition rail freight is of key   to/from the GEML and Thameside. An
importance in conveying increasing volumes of           extract from TfL’s Freight on Rail in London
aggregate and maritime containers to/from and           publication states:
across the region in a sustainable manner (as
                                                        “123 million tons of freight pounded London’s
re ected in the 10th and 13th bullets above).
                                                        roads in 2002. That equates to 450,000
                                                        freight vehicle movements crossing the GLA
2.6 Greater London Authority and
                                                        boundary every day; HGVs account for 56,000
Transport for London
                                                        movements alone. Goods vehicle traf c on the
2.6.1                                                   major roads in London went up by 17 percent
In 2003, the Mayor of London published                  between 1993 and 2002 and movements
the London Plan which is the key planning               are getting heavier with articulated vehicle
document for the capital. This document                 movement increasing most (by 21 percent).
considers forecasts for employment and                  There are another 250 million tonnes of road
population growth, together with the main               freight movement every year to and from the
locations which could be developed to meet              South East region, with trade from mainland
that growth. In addition, it sets out the Mayor’s       Europe transiting London and the South East
six key objectives for London:                          on top of that. Much of this traf c passes on
    To accommodate London’s growth within               trunk roads used daily by Londoners.”
    its boundaries without encroaching on               The Cross London RUS looked at freight
    open spaces.                                        growth and routing issues. The relationship
    To make London a better city for people to          between via London and cross country freight
    live in.                                            routes is developed further in this RUS.

    To make London a more prosperous city               2.7 Linkages to other planning
    with strong and diverse economic growth.
                                                        strategies
    To promote social inclusion and tackle              2.7.1
    deprivation and discrimination.                     The RUS covers three important radial routes
    To improve London’s accessibility.                  from London, which link the capital to different
                                                        parts of East Anglia, as well as containing a
    To make London a more attractive, well-
                                                        number of rural and cross country lines. The
    designed and green city.
                                                        RUS is therefore related to a number of other
2.6.2                                                   strategies and policies:
Objectives 4, 5 and 6 are particularly relevant to
                                                           The Cross London RUS, which looked at
the RUS and underpin the Rail Corridor Plans
                                                           the links between its routes and a number
(RCP) produced by Transport for London (TfL).
                                                           of other lines radiating out of the capital.
To promote accessibility and social inclusion,
TfL is keen to see metro-style frequencies on a            TfL’s Eastern RCP, which has been
number of suburban passenger services in East              prepared to consider the service
and North East London.                                     speci cation options for service
                                                           improvements over the suburban routes
                                                           leading out of London.




                                                                                                           19
     The East Coast Ports planning inquiries       In a similar vein the Eddington Transport
     covering the proposed development of          Study highlighted the pivotal role that
     Felixstowe (South), Bathside Bay and          transport plays in the UK’s economic
     London Gateway Port. These proposals will     productivity, growth and stability (within
     increase the demand to convey maritime        the Government’s broader commitment to
     containers over the GA routes.                sustainable development). The report also
                                                   emphasised the importance of maximising
     The ECML RUS, which is looking at services
                                                   the use of existing transport corridors,
     out of Kings Cross to Peterborough,
                                                   which is a central objective of the RUS
     Cambridge and the North East.
                                                   programme. The Government issued its
     The Freight RUS, which has been               response to the Eddington report in a
     established by the ORR and which              further White Paper published in October
     contains industry agreed forecasts for        2007. In addition, recent announcements
     future freight growth (these have been        by the DfT support the enhancement of
     fed into this RUS). The Freight RUS also      infrastructure to international gateways,
     identi ed a number of capacity gaps (gaps     such as Felixstowe, in order to generate
     D-H) for the GA RUS to address.               greater volumes of freight moved by rail.
     This RUS takes account of the existing        Finally in considering the freight context,
     Midland Main Line RUS, produced by the        it is worth quoting from the Secretary of
     former Strategic Rail Authority (SRA);        State’s statement on rail freight made to
     it will also inform the forthcoming East      the House of Commons on 19 July 2005,
     Midlands RUS when considering freight         the fth bullet point being particularly
     pathing requirements on the Felixstowe        relevant to the RUS:
     - Nuneaton route.
                                                   1. Continue to support the principle of
     The DfT has published the Regional              incremental access charges for freight
     Planning Assessment for the East of             operators.
     England and this document includes
                                                   2. Work with the freight industry to
     a review of the radial routes out of
                                                     understand its needs when setting the
     London serving East Anglia and the
                                                     strategy for the rail network, and to provide
     East of England. The review considers
                                                     the greatest possible certainty of access.
     several proposals, which have now been
     developed within the RUS, especially          3. Ensure grant funding is targeted to
     train lengthening on key routes. The            deliver the maximum bene ts in terms
     RUS does, however, extend the capacity          of reducing congestion, pollution and
     improvements to include additional              accidents.
     services and additional tracks, in order to
                                                   4. Work to ensure that regional and local
     accommodate the forecast growth.
                                                     planning decisions re ect government
     In October 2006 HM Treasury published           priorities relating to the sustainable
     the Stern Review on the Economics of            movement of goods.
     Climate Change which estimated that the
                                                   5. Work with the industry and Network Rail
     dangers of unabated climate change could
                                                     to establish how freight growth can be
     be equivalent to 20 percent of GDP or
                                                     accommodated on the network.
     more per year. Thus there is an increasing
     focus on the environmental bene ts of         6. Work with the devolved administrations,
     modes of transport with lower emissions,        and with the EU to ensure a consistent UK
     especially the movement of people and           and Europe-wide approach to rail freight.
     freight by rail.




20
2.8 Assumptions about other
schemes
2.8.1
In considering future years in the RUS
forecasts, it has been assumed that only
committed (funded) schemes will go ahead.
These are assumed to be the following:

   The Public Private Partnership (PPP)
   scheme for London Underground.

   East London Line Extension Project
   including the connection to the North
   London Line.

   DLR extensions to Stratford International
   and to Woolwich Arsenal.

   Integrated Kent Franchise (IKF) running on
   HS1 and the freight interchange sidings at
   Ripple Lane (Dagenham).

   The London 2012 Olympic Games and
   Paralympic Games (The Games) and
   associated work at Stratford.

   The North London Line (NLL) upgrade
   works (for TfL London Rail).

   The freight gauging and capacity works
   between Felixstowe and South Yorkshire
   being delivered as part of the Hutchison
   Ports UK (HPUK) Section 106 Agreement.

2.8.2
The impact of the East Coast Ports study is
also tested.

2.8.3
Following the end of the RUS consultation
period, it was announced that funding was
in place for both Thameslink and Crossrail.
Whilst these schemes were not included in the
original work on the options, the opportunity that
they give and their synergy with the RUS are
discussed in both Chapter 7 and Chapter 9.




                                                     21
     3. Current capacity, demand and delivery



         3.1 Train operators                                    into four market-based groups, each led

         3.1.1                                                  by their own Managing Director. These are

         At present, ve passenger train operators run           Energy (which includes coal), Construction

         services over the lines covered by this RUS.           (which includes domestic waste), Industrial

         These are:                                             (which includes metals and petroleum),
                                                                and Network (which includes international,
            ‘one’ railway, which operate services               automotive and express parcels services).
            from Liverpool Street over both the Great
            Eastern Main Line to Norwich and West               Freightliner, which has two divisions:

            Anglia Main Line to Kings Lynn. ‘one’ also          Freightliner Intermodal is the largest haulier

            operates services on the Great Eastern              of containerised traf c, predominantly in

            and West Anglia branches and over the               the deep sea market; Freightliner Heavy

            rural routes in Norfolk and Suffolk.                Haul is a signi cant conveyor of bulk
                                                                goods, predominantly coal, construction
            c2c, which operate the services on the              materials and petroleum.
            Thameside route between Fenchurch Street
            and Shoeburyness via the main line and the          GB Railfreight (GBRf), which is a

            Tilbury Loop via Rainham and via Ockendon.          signi cant operator of deep sea container
                                                                trains and infrastructure services. GBRf
            First Capital Connect (FCC), which operate          also runs a number of services for bulk
            services from Kings Cross to Cambridge              market customers.
            and Kings Lynn.
                                                                Direct Rail Services (DRS), which operates
            East Midlands Trains, which operate the             traf c for the nuclear industry in the UK.
            services from the Midlands to Norwich (run          In the last few years the company has
            by Central Trains prior to re-franchising).         expanded into running services for the
            CrossCountry, which operate the services            domestic and short sea intermodal markets.
            from the Midlands to Stansted Airport (run
            by Central Trains prior to re-franchising).      3.2 Pro le of the freight market
                                                             3.2.1
         3.1.2
                                                             The following are the key in uences which
         No other passenger operators regularly run
                                                             generate rail freight in the route;
         services into East Anglia.
                                                                A thriving economy, which draws
         3.1.3
                                                                aggregates for construction into the area.
         All of the current freight operators run services
         that pass into East Anglia and these operators         Raw materials from several production sites
         are listed below:                                      (sand, petroleum products and furnace feed).

            English Welsh and Scottish Railway                  The Port of Felixstowe and Thameside
            (EWS), which is the largest freight operator        ports. This is mainly, though not
            in the UK and has a licence to operate              exclusively, Intermodal (container)
            European services. EWS runs services for            business. Developers have proposals for
            a wide range of markets. It is organised            signi cant port expansions.




22
   The concentration of heavy industry along      stations and cement works and distribution of
   the Thames corridor.                           the rail industry’s own construction materials.

3.2.2                                             3.2.3
In addition to these main themes, rail freight    The overall picture by commodity is as follows:
serves a number of other locally important
                                                  Aggregates/building materials
roles including taking waste out of London,
                                                  The terminals involved in this business are
serving other industrial sites such as power
                                                  listed in Table 3.1:


 Table 3.1 Aggregates rail terminals in the study area.
 Location                 Commodities            Origins                   Main routing             Volume
                                                 /destinations
 Receiving terminals:
 Barham                   Aggregate              E. Midlands               Peterborough, Ely,       3 tpw
                                                                           Bury St Edmunds
 Bow                      Aggregate/Building     E.Midlands/Yorkshire      MML/ECML, NLL            8 tpw
                          materials
 Broxbourne               Aggregate              E. Midlands               Peterborough, Ely,       5 tpw
                                                                           Cambridge
 Bury St Edmunds          Aggregate              E. Midlands               Peterborough, Ely.       3 tpw
 Chelmsford               Aggregate              E. Midlands               Peterborough, Ely,       1 tpw
                                                                           Ipswich
 Chesterton Junction      Aggregate              E. Midlands               Peterborough, Ely        5 tpw
 Dagenham                 Aggregate              Mendips                   NLL, Barking             8 tpw
 Ely                      Aggregate              E. Midlands               Peterborough             3 tpw
 Harlow Mill              Aggregate              1. Mendips                1. NLL,Cheshunt          10 tpw
                                                 2. E. Midlands            2. Peterborough,
                                                                           Ely, Cambridge
 Kennett                  Aggregate              E. Midlands               Peterborough, Ely        3 tpw
 Parkeston                Aggregate              Mendips                   NLL, GE                  1 tpw
 Pur eet                  Aggregate              Mendips                   NLL, Barking             5 tpw
 Trowse                   Aggregate              E. Midlands               Peterborough, Ely        3 tpw
 Forwarding Terminals:
 Dagenham                 Sand                   West London               Barking, NLL             5 tpw
 Marks Tey                Sand                   West and South            GE, NLL                  5 tpw
                                                 London
 Middleton Towers         Sand for glass         North of England          Ely, Peterborough,       8 tpw
                          making                                           ECML.
 Ipswich Grif n Wharf     Dredged aggregate      East Anglia               GE                       Sporadic




                                                                                                               23
     Table 3.2 Raw material rail terminals in RUS area – other than aggregates.
     Location               Commodities             Origins               Main routeing           Volume
                                                    /destinations
     North Walsham          Gas distillate          Harwich               GE                      4 tpw
     Lowestoft              Mud oil                 Parkeston             GE                      Occasional
     Snailwell              Furnace feed            Kent                  Bury, GE, NLL           1 tpw
     (Newmarket)
     Thameshaven            Petroleum               S. Wales              Barking, NLL            3 tpw
                            products
     Foxton                 Industrial coal         Avonmouth             NLL, Royston            3 tpw




                 A new aggregate terminal has recently opened         foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) per annum, 27
                 at West Thurrock (on the Tilbury Loop). Rail         percent of which are moved by rail to a network
                 features strongly in this market because of its      of terminals throughout the UK. Twenty- ve
                 success in moving signi cant tonnages reliably       intermodal trains per day (each way) currently
                 and economically. The products concerned             serve the port. Trains mostly travel via the
                 have a relatively low unit value so transport        GE and NLL, the remainder travel over the
                 costs comprise a large proportion of the end         cross country route from the port via Bury St
                 price. Rail secures its market share through         Edmunds, Ely and Peterborough. There are
                 achieving the maximum productive heavy-              also port intermodal terminals at Tilbury (two)
                 haul payload per train which, typically, for the     and Pur eet which forward 8 - 10 trains per day
                 locations listed, means a daily train service        via Barking and the NLL.
                 with a net payload of at least 1,000 tonnes.
                                                                      Intermodal traf c prospers best on rail where
                 Terminal operators mainly produce concrete and       long distance haulage is involved, hence the
                 coated (tarmac) products which are ‘perishable’      predominance of trains passing through the
                 and need to be manufactured close to end             route from the ports of entry rather than serving
                 use. Thus London, as the biggest focus for           destinations within it. In fact despite very keen
                 construction activity, has rail depots which reach   competition from road, market share has risen
                 the fringes of the City though the penetration of    from 17 percent in 1997 to its current level of
                 the rail hauled business throughout the region is    27 percent. To meet Government’s objectives
                 shown above.                                         of more freight by rail, especially to the
                                                                      international gateways, it is important that fast
                 Other bulk raw material production/
                                                                      reliable paths are available for these services.
                 consumption
                                                                      Ely and Ripple Lane (Barking) are the only
                 Other bulk material traf c moved by rail in the
                                                                      import container receiving terminals on the
                 area is listed in Table 3.2.
                                                                      route. Whilst the majority of traf c passes via
                 Intermodal business                                  London, it does not have an intrinsic need to
                 The presence of the East Coast and Thames            travel via the capital. However, the TIF funded
                 ports is the major in uence on this business         upgrade of Gospel Oak – Barking will assist
                 in the route. Felixstowe is the UK’s biggest         the ow of traf c through London and alleviate
                 container port with around 40 percent of UK          the need for freight to cross the GE ML using
                 deep sea container trade passing through.            the at junction at Forest Gate.
                 This amounts to nearly three million Twenty-




24
General merchandise

The only general merchandise rail traf c in the
region is listed in Table 3.3:


 Table 3.3 General merchandise rail terminal in the area.

 Location                Commodities            Origin                 Routing               Volume

 Ely                     Various                Channel Tunnel.        NLL, Cambridge.       10 tpw
                                                Felixstowe             GE, Cross-country



Rail market penetration is currently less            Specialist freight business
in this sector than that achieved with bulk
                                                     Specialist freight movements also occur in
commodities. Rail success tends to require
                                                     the area;
long distance, high volume trunk haul into
large distribution centres.                               Nuclear traf c is moved from two power
                                                          station rail heads via the GE and the NLL.
Other trainload freight
                                                          Ministry of Defence trains serve
Apart from that listed above, the other bulk train
                                                          Shoeburyness.
services in the Region are shown in Table 3.4:




 Table 3.4 Bulk commodity rail terminals in study area.

 Location                Commodities            Origins/               Main routing          Volume
                                                destinations

 Dagenham                Waste dispatch         Bucks. land ll         Barking, NLL          5 tpw
 Dagenham (Ford)         Import autos and       Various in UK and      Barking, NLL          15 tpw
                         auto parts.            Continent
 Pur eet                 Import and export      Various                Barking, NLL          5 tpw
                         autos
 Tilbury                 Newsprint              Various in UK          Barking, NLL          5 tpw


 Whitemoor               Rail infrastructure    Anywhere in the All routes                   Varies
                         related                GA RUS and ECML
                                                (south) area




                                                                                                       25
                  Summary
                  3.2.4
                  The above has emphasised the importance
                  of the intermodal and aggregate traf c in the
                  GA RUS area. A summary key terminals listed
                  above is shown in Figure 3.1 and the main
                  daily freight ows in the area are shown in
                      gure 3.2. The Freight RUS also identi ed a
                  number of issues for this RUS to address and
                  these are covered in Chapter 5.


     Figure 3.1 Distribution of rail freight terminals in the RUS area

      Key

                 Aggregates Terminal

                 Other bulk raw materials

                 Intermodal terminal

                 General Merchandise

                 Waste and rail infrastructure

                 Automotive

                 Specialist freight




                                                                         Norwich
                                                  Peterborough




                                                        Cambridge
                                        Bedford


                                                                    Ipswich
                        Milton Keynes
                                                                                      Felixstowe
                                                                                   Harwich
                                                       Stevenage

                                         Luton




            Reading




26
Figure 3.2 Main daily freight ows in the Greater Anglia RUS
area in 2006/07

Key


               Container
               Construction
                                                                                                                         Cromer
               Channel Tunnel                                                                         Sheringham

               Automobile
               Other

                                                                                                                                     Great
                              KINGS LYNN                                                                                            Yarmouth
                                                                                             NORWICH


                                   Middleton Towers




                                                                                                                                  Lowestoft

                                                Thetford                                                  Diss
Peterborough Whitemoor
                Yard

           March



                       ELY                                                                                                            Sizewell




                                                                   Bury St Edmunds
                                                                                                                                       Felixstowe
                               CAMBRIDGE
                                                                                                                  IPSWICH




                                                                                                                          Harwich
                                  STANSTED                                                                             Parkeston Quay
      Letchworth
                                  AIRPORT                                        Sudbury
                                                                                                Manningtree
                                                                                                                                      Harwich
                                                                                                                                       Town
                                                                                                                  COLCHESTER
       Hertford East          BISHOPS STORTFORD                      Braintree

                                                                                                                                         Walton-on-
                               Harlow Mill                                                                                               the-Naze
                                                                                                          Colchester
                              Harlow Town                                                                   Town
                                                                                                      Marks
                                                                                                      Tey                           Clacton
         Enfield Town         Broxbourne
                                                                                             Witham
                                                                    Chelmsford
                                    Chingford

                              Tottenham                     Shenfield                                                  Southminster
               Seven          Hale      Walthamstow
               Sisters                  Central
                                                      Romford

     LONDON
 LIVERPOOL STREET

                                                                                                                        Southend Victoria
                                                                Barking   Upminster          Pitsea
                               Stratford                                                                                                 Shoeburyness
                                                                                  Basildon                        Southend
         LONDON                                                                                                    Central
                                                                                                Thames Haven
      FENCHURCH STREET
                                                                            Grays
                                                                                             Tilbury Freight
                                                                                             Container Terminal


                                 The size of the line are in porportion to the size of the particular commodity flows




                                                                                                                                                        27
                     3.3 Pro le of the passenger market                            London demand

                     3.3.1                                                         3.3.2
                     This RUS covers the three important radial                    Services from the RUS area terminate
                     routes serving London and the East of                         at Liverpool Street and Fenchurch Street
                     England as well as a number of rural and                      stations in the City. These stations primarily
                     cross country routes.                                         serve commuters and so passenger use is

                     A number of data sources have been drawn                      characterised by high volumes of arrivals in the

                     upon and assistance has been received                         morning peak and departures in the evening.

                     from Atkins Transport Planning in analysing                   Figure 3.3 shows the passenger usage of

                     the available information. The primary data                   Liverpool Street station, as an example. This

                     sources are:                                                  con rms that the greatest volume of passenger
                                                                                   use occurs during the morning peak during
                         The London Area Travel Survey (LATS)                      which there are more than 100,000 journeys
                         which was conducted in 2001.                              into London (Liverpool St plus Fenchurch St) on
                         Ticket sales data from the MOIRA model                    a typical weekday. The analysis shows that off-
                         which incorporates information from the                   peak demand growth has been signi cant on all
                         LENNON database.                                          of the routes into London. However, the analysis
                                                                                   has focussed on the morning peak period as
                         Network Rail and TOC passenger counts.
                                                                                   this is the time at which gaps are most likely
                         Transport for London data from its rail                   to be identi ed between demand and service
                         planning database.                                        provision. Reduced price pre-peak season
                                                                                   tickets were promoted on West Anglia and c2c
                     Around 109 million rail journeys are recorded
                                                                                   services to try to encourage early commuting.
                     in the LENNON database in 2005/06 in
                                                                                   c2c believed that few commuters were able
                     the GA RUS area.1 Most of these journeys
                                                                                   or willing to adjust their morning arrival times
                     are wholly within the area. Fewer than ten
                                                                                   into London and withdrew the reduced price
                     percent originate or end outside of the area.
                                                                                   tickets in 2005. The tickets are still available
                     London attracts more than 60 percent of the
                                                                                   on West Anglia but from a reduced number of
                     total journeys. Regional centres also attract
                                                                                   stations at a discount of about seven percent
                     signi cant passenger ows. The greatest
                                                                                   for passengers willing to arrive in London before
                     non-London ows are attracted by Cambridge,
                                                                                   07:15. The tickets are no longer promoted.
                     Norwich and Chelmsford.




     1   LENNON records ticket sales but not travelcards sold at London Underground outlets or journeys made using Oyster cards.




28
     Figure 3.3: Passenger Use of Liverpool Street station
     (2005 All Day Recorded Gate Entries plus Exits)
                        Key

                                                             Weekday
                                                             Saturday
                                                             Sunday



                                                     80000
      Gate Entry and Exits (Hourly Moving Average)




                                                     70000


                                                     60000


                                                     50000


                                                     40000


                                                     30000


                                                     20000


                                                     10000


                                                         0
                                                             06:00

                                                                     07:00

                                                                             08:00

                                                                                     09:00

                                                                                             10:00




                                                                                                             12:00

                                                                                                                     13:00

                                                                                                                                14:00

                                                                                                                                        15:00

                                                                                                                                                16:00

                                                                                                                                                        17:00

                                                                                                                                                                18:00

                                                                                                                                                                        19:00

                                                                                                                                                                                20:00

                                                                                                                                                                                        21:00

                                                                                                                                                                                                22:00

                                                                                                                                                                                                        23:00

                                                                                                                                                                                                                00:00
                                                                                                     11:00




Source: Atkins analysis of ‘one’ data


3.3.3                                                                                                                        a typical autumn weekday for each of the
                                                                                                                             last thirteen years, during which passenger
Sales of travelcards are not fully recorded in
                                                                                                                             numbers have increased by more than 30
the industry systems and information about
                                                                                                                             percent. The chart also shows the total PIXC
journeys made using Oyster cards is not
                                                                                                                             (de ned in the glossary) capacity of the
available. In the rest of this section information
                                                                                                                             rolling stock (which includes an allowance for
is presented from physical counts of
                                                                                                                             standing space which has varied over time)
passengers. It is dif cult to identify very short
                                                                                                                             and the number of seats operated, for years
term growth rates from these data due to the
                                                                                                                             where that data has been recorded2. Though
variability in train loadings from year to year.
                                                                                                                             considerable variation would be expected
However, they give an indication of longer
                                                                                                                             between one day counts, the data shows an
term changes and a useful snapshot of current
                                                                                                                             upward trend with a downturn in 2000 (when
demand and peak crowding.
                                                                                                                             City employment fell). Since 2005 loads as
Thameside                                                                                                                    an average have been reported (where less
3.3.4                                                                                                                        variation would be expected), there have been
The Thameside route carries around                                                                                           sharp increases in passenger numbers – more
29,000 passengers a day into London in the                                                                                   than 15 percent over the last two years.
morning peak. Figure 3.4 shows the number                                                                                    Much of the increase has been in passengers
of passengers counted on the service on                                                                                      travelling to Docklands.


2   The permitted standing allowance for Class 357 rolling stock was increased from 35 percent to 45 percent of seats on trains that have
    permitted standing allowances for PIXC calculation in 2007.



                                                                                                                                                                                                                        29
          Figure 3.4: Thameside am Peak Passenger Loads and Capacities 1995
          – 2007
           Key

                         Capacity
                         Seats (for years where data recorded)
                         Passengers




           40000


           35000


           30000


           25000


           20000


           15000


           10000


            5000


                 0
                      1995



                               1996



                                           1997



                                                  1998



                                                          1999



                                                                    2000



                                                                           2001



                                                                                   2002



                                                                                             2003



                                                                                                    2004



                                                                                                             2005



                                                                                                                      2006



                                                                                                                                 2007
     Source: Thameside peak counts Autumn 1995 – Autumn 2007
     Note: Since 2005 c2c has reported average passenger loads on each train over a number of days over the month when running
     was not perturbed.


                     3.3.5                                                        between 08:00 and 08:59, which is the busiest
                     Table 3.5 shows the average number of                        hour each day. These loads are recorded at
                     passengers on each of the three routes served                the busiest point for each train which - on this
                     by c2c into London and the average load                      line - is usually at West Ham or Limehouse,
                     factor (passengers divided by seats expressed                where passengers have the opportunity to
                     as a percentage) during the morning peak                     change onto London Underground and the
                     and for services arriving at Fenchurch Street                Docklands Light Railway.




       Table 3.5: Thameside Passenger Loads (October 2007)
      Thameside                       08:00 - 08:59                                       07:00 - 09:59
                                      Passengers                 Load Factor              Passengers                Load Factor
      Main Line                       9,832                      121%                     18,799                    108%
      Ockendon Branch                 2,653                      118%                     4,669                     119%
      Tilbury Loop                    2,475                      126%                     5,548                     99%

     Source: c2c peak counts data 2007, average passenger numbers at the busiest stop.




30
3.3.6                                              3.3.8
The load factors indicate that travelling          Examination of the loadings along the routes
conditions for passengers are similar on all       has been possible using the train weighing
the Thameside routes in the busiest hour but       data supplied by c2c. The analysis of these
that crowding is worst on trains running via the   data is shown in Figure 3.5. The thickness
Ockendon branch during the shoulder peak.          of the lines shows how much capacity is
Closer examination of the data shows that ten      provided on each route (measured as the
trains were crowded beyond PIXC capacity           number of carriages) while the colour indicates
(only one of which has no standing allowance       the number of passengers as a percentage
for the purpose of PIXC) and that around           of seats provided, i.e. how demand builds
4,300 passengers (15 percent) had to stand.        up along each of the routes. Inspection of
                                                   the data reveals that standing occurs from:
3.3.7
                                                   Ben eet on main line services; from Pur eet
Comparable passenger numbers were
                                                   on the Tilbury Loop; and from Ockendon on
published from Autumn 2005 in the RUS Draft
                                                   services via the branch. Crowding exceeds
for Consultation. Comparison to these more
                                                   PIXC limits on individual trains for no more
recent data reveals that peak passenger
                                                   than two stops, between Barking and
numbers on c2c have increased by more than
                                                   Limehouse.
4,000 on average (17 percent) over those
two years. The rate of increase has been
especially rapid on services running via the
Ockendon branch, peak patronage increasing
by 35 percent over the last two years.




                                                                                                     31
     Figure 3.5:
     Thameside: 2007 peak capacity & average passenger load factors
     (0700-0959 peak London arrivals)

         Key

                0 - 50%                               110 - 114%

                50 - 70%                              115 - 119%

                70 - 84%                              120 - 150%

                85 - 89%
                                                The thickness of the lines directly relates
                90 - 94%                        to the passenger capacity provided,
                                                measured as the number of vehicles
                95 - 99%                        running towards London
                100 - 104%                      The colours of the lines show the average
                                                load factor (% seats occupied) according
                105 - 109%
                                                to the key.




                                                                                                                                                  SS
                               SE




                                                                                                                         E
                                                                                                                  AL ND
                                                                                     ER
                                           AM




                                                                                                                        a




                                                                                                                      YN
                                                                                                           ha -Se




                                                                                                                      y
                               U




                                                           G




                                                                                                              TR HE
                                                                                  ST




                                                                                                                   Ba

                                                                                                                  UR
                           O



                                        H




                                                                                                                    l
                                                          N




                                                                                                                  el
                                                                                                   on




                                                                                                                 on
                          EH




                                                                                                    n




                                                                                                                 et
                                                                                                                EA
                                                                                IN




                                                                                                          EN T
                                       T




                                                        KI




                                                                                                                 w




                                                                                                               pe

                                                                                                              EB
                                                                                                 do




                                                                                                         C OU
                                   ES




                                                                                                               le
                                                                                                 ld




                                                                                                             h-

                                                                                                              lk
                                                                             PM
                                                       R
                       M




                                                                                                            TS




                                                                                                            or
                                                                                                            nf
                                                                                               in


                                                                                              si




                                                                                                            O
                                                                                                           ig
                                                     BA
                                   W
                      LI




                                                                                                           S
                                                                                            La




                                                                                                         Be




                                                                                                         Th
                                                                                            Ba




                                                                                                         SH
                                                                            U




                                                                                                        PI




                                                                                                         Le

                                                                                                         C




                                                                                     Ockendon

                                                  Dagenham                           Chafford
                                                  Dock                               Hundred
                                                                                                     Stanford-le-Hope
                                                         Rainham


                                                                                Grays




     Source: October average load factors on unperturbed services arriving at London Fenchurch Street between
     0700 and 0959


                       Great Eastern Main Line                                                  are shown in Figure 3.6 along with seated and
                                                                                                total capacity, which includes PIXC standing
                       3.3.9
                                                                                                allowances3. The standing allowances (which
                       The Great Eastern Main Line carries around
                                                                                                with the number of seats make up the total
                       60,000 passengers a day into London during
                                                                                                capacity) on the Great Eastern Line are lower
                       the morning peak. This makes up more than
                                                                                                than on the other main lines into London in the
                       half of peak journeys into London from the RUS
                                                                                                GA RUS area. This is because all of the inter-
                       area. Passenger count data from the last ten
                                                                                                city services from Norwich and some of the
                       years suggests that passenger numbers - along
                                                                                                outer services have no standing allowance for
                       with capacity - have increased fairly steadily on
                                                                                                the purpose of PIXC calculation.
                       this route and by 34 percent since 1995. These



     3    These standing allowances are determined by the type of rolling stock and the calling pattern of each train. If a stop is called at within
          20 minutes of reaching the maximum loading stop then a standing allowance is included. If there is a non-stop journey of more than 20
          minutes no standing allowance is included.


32
     Figure 3.6: GEML am Peak Passenger Loads and Capacities 1995 - 2007

       Key

                     Capacity
                     Seats (for years where data recorded)
                     Passengers




      70000


      60000


      50000


      40000


      30000


      20000


      10000



             0
                  1995



                           1996



                                       1997



                                              1998



                                                      1999



                                                                2000



                                                                        2001



                                                                               2002



                                                                                         2003



                                                                                                 2004



                                                                                                        2005



                                                                                                                 2006



                                                                                                                        2007
Source: GEML peak count data 1995 - 2007

3.3.10                                                           services from Ipswich, Colchester, Clacton,
Table 3.6 shows the number of passengers                         and Chelmsford; Southend and Southminster
counted and the load factor (calculated as the                   services; and inner suburban services from
TOC’s estimate of the number of standard                         Shen eld and Gidea Park. These data are
class passengers divided by the number of                        recorded at the maximum load point, which is
standard class seats) for each of the four                       Stratford for trains that call there and Liverpool
GEML service groups in Autumn 2007: inter-                       Street for those that do not.
city services from Norwich; outer suburban


  Table 3.6: GEML Passenger Loads (Autumn 2007)

 GEML                             08:00 - 08:59                                       07:00 - 09:59

                                  Passengers                 Load Factor              Passengers               Load Factor
 Inner suburban                   11,549                     140%                     26,448                   126%
 Southend                         8,168                      113%                     13,449                   103%
 Outer suburban                   7,129                      105%                     14,324                   99%
 Inter-City                       2,053                      113%                     4,327                    101%
Source: GEML peak counts; Autumn 2007.
Note: Estimates of standard class passenger numbers at the busiest stop.




                                                                                                                               33
                     3.3.11                                                         West Anglia
                     Across the service groups the crowding
                                                                                    3.3.13
                     situation was as follows:
                                                                                    The West Anglia route carries around 28,000
                     a) Inner services are the most overcrowded                     passengers a day into London during the
                         with about 6,500 passengers (a quarter                     morning peak. This is 40 percent more than it
                         of the total) standing and 14 of the 33                    carried in 1995. Figure 3.7 indicates that much
                         trains carrying more people than the PIXC                  of this increase occurred through the late
                         capacity of the train;                                     1990s. Morning peak passenger demand then
                                                                                    experienced an apparent period of volatility
                     b) around 1,100 (8 percent) stood on outer
                                                                                    following a downturn in City employment and
                         services while 7 of 21 services carried
                                                                                    the worldwide downturn in air passenger
                         more people than the PIXC capacity allows
                                                                                    numbers following the September 11 terrorist
                         (though 13 of the 22 trains – and all of
                                                                                    attacks in New York. Passenger numbers have
                         the seven over PIXC capacity - have no
                                                                                    climbed rapidly again since 2003. This growth
                         standing allowance for passengers in the
                                                                                    seems to have accelerated over the last
                         PIXC calculation);
                                                                                    year, when passenger numbers increased by
                     c) Southend services had 1,400 standing                        more than 8 percent. This recent growth has
                         passengers (11 percent). Again, the PIXC                   occurred as capacity has been increased on
                         measure has no standing allowance on                       inner-suburban and Stansted Express services
                         some of the trains in this service group (5                while peak journey times have been extended
                         of 19). Only one train is crowded beyond                   for passengers travelling on outer-suburban
                         its PIXC limit (which includes a standing                  services that start at Cambridge and Stansted
                         allowance) and that runs as an eight car                   Airport. The chart also shows how seated and
                         train and serves inner suburban stations as                total (seated plus PIXC standing) capacity
                         well as those from Southend to Shen eld;                   has changed over the period. All West Anglia
                     d) Anglia inter-city services had about                        services now include a standing allowance in
                         500 passengers (25 percent) standing on                    the assessment of capacity for PIXC; this was
                         arrival at Liverpool Street over the three                 not the case in the past.
                         hours. Calculation of PIXC on Anglia
                         inter-city trains does not allow for any
                         standing capacity.

                     3.3.12
                     Passenger numbers have increased on the
                     Great Eastern routes by 5 percent between
                     Autumn 2005 (the detail of which was
                     published in the RUS Draft for Consultation)
                     and Autumn 2007 passenger counts. The
                     Inner, Southend and Inter-City service groups
                     have recorded increases of between seven
                     and ten per cent over the two years while
                     patronage on the outer-suburban services is
                     down slightly over the same period, though
                     this may represent passengers switching to
                     other service groups at stations where they
                     have a choice.



     3   A key element of crowding targets is that no passenger should stand for a journey of 20 minutes or more.
         All trains which make a call less than 20 minutes away from the maximum loading point have a standing allowance added.



34
     Figure 3.7: WAML am Peak Passenger Loads and Capacities 1995 - 2007

       Key

                     Capacity
                     Seats (For years where data recorded)
                     Passengers




       40000


       35000


       30000


       25000


       20000


       15000


       10000


         5000


             0
                   1995



                            1996



                                     1997



                                             1998



                                                      1999



                                                               2000



                                                                           2001



                                                                                  2002



                                                                                          2003



                                                                                                 2004



                                                                                                         2005



                                                                                                                 2006



                                                                                                                        2007
Source: WAML PIXC count data 1995 - 2007

3.3.14                                                         standard class seats. This is measured at
Table 3.7 shows the number of passengers                       the busiest stop for each service, which are
counted on West Anglia service groups in                       Tottenham Hale and Seven Sisters for the
Autumn 2007. The load factors are calculated                   trains that call at those stations and Liverpool
as the TOC’s estimated number of standard                      Street for services that start at Chingford.
class passengers divided by the number of



  Table 3.7: West Anglia Passenger Loads (Autumn 2007)
 WAML                              08:00 - 08:59                                         07:00 - 09:59
                                   Passengers                Load Factor                 Passengers             Load Factor
 En eld/Cheshunt                   3,682                     135%                        7,334                  105%
 Hertford                          1,799                     141%                        3,788                  112%
 Chingford                         2,983                     117%                        5,749                  89%
 Stratford                         609                       112%                        1,339                  71%
 Cambridge                         2,804                     150%                        5,533                  124%
 Stansted Express                  1,934                     107%                        3,757                  75%
Source: West Anglia peak count data, Autumn 2007
Note: Estimates of standard class passenger numbers at the busiest stop.




                                                                                                                               35
     3.3.15                                             have changed. The number of people
     Outer-commuter services from Cambridge             travelling on services via Tottenham Hale has
     are the most crowded of any in the RUS area.       increased by ten percent over the last two
     Load factors are similar over the three hours to   years and much of this has occurred in the 12
     those on the GE Inners but about ten per cent      months to October 2007. Passenger numbers
     worse during the busiest hour of the morning       increased more modestly on Chingford
     peak when a third of passengers had to             services (three percent) and by about six
     stand. However, only two trains were crowded       percent on the Southbury loop. Similarly,
     beyond the PIXC standard and one of those          most of the growth occurred over the last 12
     runs at 4-car length. The passenger counts         months.
     reveal that around 15 percent of all morning
                                                        West Anglia Main Line station use
     peak passengers on Stansted Express
     services stand but that most of these people       3.3.18
     are on one train which also serves inner           For the RUS Draft for Consultation, patronage
     suburban stations on the Lea Valley.               of inner suburban stations on the West
                                                        Anglia Main Line was examined. It showed
     3.3.16
                                                        that Northumberland Park and Angel Road
     Seven of the 38 inner-suburban trains on West
                                                        stations were lightly used (and served) but
     Anglia are crowded beyond the PIXC capacity
                                                        that passenger numbers were higher than had
     of the trains and 15 percent of passengers
                                                        been anticipated. This seemed to be driven by
     stand. Five of the seven over-crowded trains
                                                        use of the new services to and from Stratford.
     operate on the Southbury Loop but only two
     of these are running at full length. A higher      3.3.19
     proportion of passengers on the Hertford East      Further station and on train passenger
     – Liverpool Street trains stand (19 percent)       counts were commissioned to build a better
     which may re ect the reduction in service          understanding of how trains load along the
     frequency to Liverpool Street since some peak      route. The schematic map in Figure 3.8 shows
     hour services were diverted to Stratford – as      service capacity as the width of the line for
     an alternative terminus - in the December          each service group while the colour coding of
     2006 timetable change. However, patronage          the line shows the average load factor building
     on Stratford bound trains (which provide a         up along the route over the three hours of
     link to the Tube at Tottenham Hale as well         the morning peak. Closer inspection of the
     as providing a travel opportunity to Stratford)    underlying data shows that passengers have
     has increased rapidly since the service was        to stand from as far out as Bishops Stortford
     introduced in 2005.                                and that standing continues to Liverpool Street
                                                        – a trip of about 50 minutes. On Cambridge
     3.3.17
                                                        services PIXC capacity limits (which all include
     Comparable data from Autumn 2005 is
                                                        a standing allowance on West Anglia) are
     published in the RUS Draft for Consultation.
                                                        exceeded from as far out as Harlow Town
     Comparison of these two sets of passenger
                                                        and some passengers are unable to board
     counts reveals that passenger numbers on
                                                        at Broxbourne. Inner suburban trains carry
     West Anglia have increased by nearly ten
                                                        passengers beyond their PIXC capacity from
     percent over the last two years. It is dif cult
                                                        Waltham Cross and, occasionally, Cheshunt.
     to understand precisely what is happening
     between Cambridge, Stansted, Hertford
     and the Stratford bound services as there is
     overlap between the stations they serve and
     have occured some considerable swings
     between service groups as stopping patterns




36
    Figure 3.8: West Anglia: 2007 peak capacity & average passenger load
    factors (0700-0959 peak London arrivals)



                                   CS     CSF                       Key
    Cambridge
                                                                             0 - 50%

                                                                             50 - 70%

                                                                             70 - 84%

                                                                             85 - 89%

    Audley End                                                               90 - 94%

                                                                             95 - 99%
                                                          STEX
                                                                             100 - 104%
    Stansted Airport                                                         105 - 109%

                                                                             110 - 114%
                                                      B
    Bishops Stortford                                                        115 - 119%

    Sawbridgeworth                                                           120 - 150%

                                                                     CS      Cambridge slow
    Harlow Town
                                                                     CSF     Cambridge semi-fast
    Roydon
                                                                     HS      Hertford to Stratford
                       HS
                                                                     HL      Hertford to Liverpool Street
    Hertford East      HL
                                                                     STEX Stansted Express
    Rye House                                                        B       Bishops Stortford to Stratford

    Broxbourne
                                                                     The thickness of the lines directly relates
                                                                     to the passenger capacity provided,
                                                                     measured as the number of vehicles
    Cheshunt                                                         running towards London

                                                                     The colours of the lines show the
                                                                     average load factor (% seats occupied)
    Waltham Cross
                                                                     according to the key.


    Enfield Lock


    Brimsdown


    Ponders End

    Northumberland Park

    Tottenham Hale



                                                                 Stratford
                            London Liverpool Street




Source: Typical June 2007 weekday; Stansted Airport average passenger numbers (5 consecutive weekdays).


                                                                                                                   37
                    Stansted Airport                                               at intermediate stations along the West Anglia
                                                                                   route. In the last two years, some peak trains
                    3.3.20
                                                                                   have made additional calls throughout the
                    Stansted Airport currently handles around
                                                                                   route to relieve crowding on inner and outer
                    24 million air passengers per annum (mppa)
                                                                                   suburban services. Table 3.8 summarises the
                    and BAA expects the maximum permitted
                                                                                   most recent passenger count data for these
                    throughput of 25mppa to be achieved during
                                                                                   services and shows load factors (passengers
                    2008. Of these, around a quarter travel
                                                                                   divided by seats). This shows that morning
                    between the airport and central London by rail.
                                                                                   peak demand is more concentrated than
                    Stansted Express services between Liverpool
                                                                                   evening demand despite a greater overlap
                    Street and Stansted Airport are also used to
                                                                                   between airport and commuter demand during
                    provide a limited-stop service to passengers
                                                                                   the evening peak.



       Table 3.8: Stansted Express Passenger Loads (Autumn 2007)

      Stansted Express                               Busiest Hour                                      Three Hour Peak

                                     Passengers                Load Factor               Passengers              Load Factor
      AM Peak                        1,934                     107%                      3,757                   75%
      (To London)
                                              (08:00 – 08:59 Arrivals)
      PM Peak                        1,829                     101%                      4,607                   94%
      (From London)
                                             (17:00 – 17:59 Departures)
     Source: ‘one’ peak count data, Autumn 2007.
     Note: passenger numbers are reduced by approx 7% as an estimate of the number of rst class ticket holders


                    3.3.21                                                         from the airport. In the week of the survey it
                    In order to get a better understanding of rail                 was found that nearly twice as many people
                    demand to and from the airport, passenger                      travelled to the airport on the Friday evening
                    counts were commissioned at Stansted Airport                   as on the Tuesday. The range of passenger
                    station during the morning and evening peaks.                  numbers and load factors are shown in Table
                    These were published in the RUS Draft for                      3.9. As in the consultation document there
                    Consultation. Since consultation additional                    was more overlap between commuter and
                    counts have been commissioned there.                           airport passenger use in the evenings when
                    These revealed that there is considerable                      commuter use is less intense and that airport
                    day to day variation of how many people                        passenger numbers were often higher outside
                    are using the Stansted Express to get to or                    of the busiest commuter hour.




       Table 3.9: Stansted Airport Rail Passenger Counts

      Stansted Express               Busiest Hour                                         Three Hour Peak

                                     Passengers                Load Factor                Passengers             Load Factor
      Morning Peak                   411 – 585                 25% - 35%                  965 – 1,565            19% - 31%
      Borders
                                     (08:00 – 08:59 Departures)
      PM Peak Alighters              535 – 968                 32% - 58%                  1,377 – 3,149          27% - 63%
                                     (16:00 – 17:00 Departures)
     Source: Network Rail data from counts conducted w/c June 11, 2007.


38
3.3.22                                              Routes which do not serve London
In summary, analysis of the London peak
                                                    3.3.23
services shows the following:
                                                    The rural and inter-regional services have
   Similar rates of growth have been                also been analysed and the data for the
   observed over the last ten years on the          most heavily loaded are summarised in
   Great Eastern and West Anglia routes             the tables contained in the Appendix. Plots
   (around 30 percent) with less growth seen        showing the maximum load per train over
   on the Thameside route. The steadiest            the day compared with the number of seats
   growth rates have been sustained on Great        are also included. The data in the appendix
   Eastern services.                                also cover the trains operating the Stansted
                                                    – Birmingham and Liverpool – Norwich
   Passenger demand on the West Anglia line
                                                    services.
   appears to have been more susceptible to
   economic uctuations in the City than the         From the data presented in the appendix, the
   other routes and was particularly affected       following can be concluded on the rural and
   by the short-term downturn in air travel         inter-regional services:
   demand in 2001.
                                                       The rural services are generally well
   Crowding is most severe on trains running           loaded to/from the regional centres at peak
   from Cambridge to Liverpool Street and on           times with some standing at the busiest
   the Great Eastern Inner-suburban services           times of the day.
   though capacity is exceeded on some
                                                       Few passengers relative to the amount
   trains on all routes.
                                                       of capacity provided use the Ipswich
   There is little prospect for further increases      – Peterborough services. These services
   in passenger numbers on the most                    operate two hourly through to London.
   crowded services without the introduction
                                                       The Felixstowe branch service is not
   of extra capacity because the best
                                                       well used in the off-peak period but rural
   timed trains are now so full that some
                                                       services are growing strongly.
   passengers are unable to board those
   trains.                                             Non-London inter-urban services within
                                                       the region are well used over much of
   With the exception of trains from Chingford,
                                                       the day. The greatest loads and some
   morning peak services are busiest when
                                                       standing occur on these trains around the
   arriving at key interchange points (i.e.
                                                       main centres. The busiest corridor being
   Stratford, Seven Sisters, Tottenham Hale,
                                                       Cambridge – Ely – Peterborough. These
   West Ham and Limehouse) rather than at
                                                       services are used for travel between
   the London terminals.
                                                       regional centres and for commuting into
   The number of people travelling to                  those centres.
   and from Stansted Airport in the peak
                                                    3.3.24
   varies considerably day to day. Airport
                                                    The RUS presents an opportunity, to consider
   passengers make use of between a
                                                    how these routes could be better utilised to
   quarter and two thirds of the total capacity
                                                    deliver improved services for passengers and
   of Stansted Express trains over a three
                                                    freight customers.
   hour peak.
                                                    3.3.25
   Angel Road and Northumberland Park
                                                    Additional passenger counts were
   stations are lightly used but patronage has
                                                    commissioned on a number of these routes
   increased sharply since the introduction of
                                                    to achieve a better understanding of usage
   Stratford bound services.




                                                                                                     39
                   (by station and route section) and Passenger          3.3.26
                   Focus has made available the results of its           The counts data is shown in Table 3.10 and
                   recent “Passenger Priorities” research on             gives the station use in terms of boarders
                   relevant routes (discussed below).                    and alighters by route and service. It should
                                                                         be noted that the gures for Cambridge, Ely
                                                                         and Peterborough include passengers on the
                                                                         services travelling beyond these locations.




      Table 3.10: Daily Boarders + Alighters on Rural/Inter-regional Services
     Service           Stansted     London –            Liverpool         Cambridge Lst/Ipswich – Total daily
                       – Birmingham Kings Lynn          – Norwich         – Norwich Peterborough
     Section           Cambridge – Cambridge            Peterborough Cambridge Ely –        Boarders +
                       Peterborough – Kings Lynn        – Norwich    – Norwich Peterborough Alighters
      STATION
      Cambridge                3,106           7,533                              1,378                         12,017
      Waterbeach                 145             555                                                               700
      Ely                      1,762           2,145              638              750           189             5,493
      Manea                       23                                                                                   23
      March                      625                                96                           180               901
      Whittlesea                  22                                                               28                  50
      Peterborough             2,028                             1,020                           562             3,610


      Littleport                                 414                                                               414
      Downham Mkt                                949                                                               949
      Watlington                                 322                                                               322
      Kings Lynn                               1,713                                                             1,713


      Shippea Hill                                                                   2                                 2
      Lakenheath
      Brandon                                                       1               91                                 92
      Thetford                                                    274              442                             716
      Harling Rd                                                                    28                                 28
      Eccles Rd                                                     1               18                                 19
      Attleborough                                                  54             428                             482
      Spooner Row                                                                    4                                 4
      Wymondham                                                     40             349                             389
      Norwich                                                    1,131            1,546                          2,677
     Source: Network Rail Counts January 2007




40
This table emphasises the importance of the         to re-assess the frequency on the Ipswich –
services between the key regional centres           Peterborough and East Suffolk Line services.
and in particular the heavy use of the corridor     The commissioning of bi-directional operation
between Ely and Cambridge. The stopping             through Ely West Curve also has the potential
patterns for these services are regular             to address both performance and journey
throughout the day, except for calls at the         time issues, by removing the need for both
stations with very low use, where calls are         passenger and freight trains to reverse at Ely.
made only once or twice a day, generally with
                                                    3.3.28
one call in the morning and one in the evening.
                                                    The Ipswich – Peterborough and East Suffolk
The Passenger Focus “Passenger Priorities”          Line services raise further punctuality and
surveys carried out on the East Anglia              capacity issues. In the December 2004
services (Peterborough – Ipswich, Stansted          timetable both these services were amended
– Birmingham, Liverpool – Norwich and               to run through to London. This has produced
Cambridge – Norwich) showed the following           a number or bene ts and dis-bene ts, which
priorities and gaps (between expectation and        may need to be considered further as services
experience). Details for stations and trains are    develop:
summarised below:
                                                       The through service removes the
Priorities:                                            interchange time penalty for passengers
                                                       travelling beyond Ipswich improving access
Stations: Ticketing facilities, security, access
                                                       and journey time.
              from other modes, availability of
              information and cleanliness of           Patronage has increased with around a 15
              facilities.                              percent increase in income.

Trains:       Punctuality, frequency, value            There is a capacity mismatch with trains
              for money and availability of            generally having too little capacity between
              information.                             London and Ipswich and too much capacity
                                                       north of Ipswich.
Gaps:
                                                       Due to the need to match paths either
Stations: Ticketing facilities, security, access
                                                       side of Ipswich, performance is now more
              from other modes, security,
                                                       challenging.
              cleanliness and the range of
              facilities available.                 Regional services into Cambridge

Trains:       Value for money, frequency,           3.3.29
              punctuality and journey time.         Regional services into Cambridge in the
                                                    morning peak have seen considerable
This shows that in addition to the station
                                                    increases in passenger numbers over the
facilities and the ambience of the rolling stock,
                                                    last few years. Table 3.11 summarises the
punctuality, frequency and journey time are
                                                    current (autumn/winter 2006/07) levels of
also issues on some routes.
                                                    demand and impacts on travel conditions.
3.3.27                                              This excludes services from the south on the
The station and rolling stock issues are largely    Great Northern and West Anglia routes where
addressed through existing programmes, train        capacity is provided by the back-working of
operator interventions or through Community         services from London.
Rail Partnerships (which promote a number
of routes in the region). As has been noted,
the majority of services are now hourly on a
regular stopping pattern, but there is scope




                                                                                                      41
       Table 3.11: am Peak Passenger Arrivals at Cambridge
                                            Services From
                                            Peterborough/Ely            Kings Lynn                Ipswich                     Norwich
      Peak Trains                           4                           6                         3                           3
      Passenger Arrivals                    613                         1,334                     148                         283
      Trains with standing                  2                           3                         -                           1
      Passengers standing                   65                          185                       -                           25
      (total)
      Duration of standing (1)              50 minutes                  21 minutes                -                           16 minutes
      (maximum)                             (Peterborough)              (Ely)                                                 (Ely)
      Seated load factor                    138%                        152%                      61%                         123%
      (maximum)
      Load Factor to capacity (2)           102%                        113%                      45%                         91%
      (maximum)
      Trains over capacity                  1                           1                         -                           -
     Source: Network Rail Passenger Counts (January 2007) and ‘one’ conductor counts.
     Note 1 This indicates the duration of standing on the train not necessarily that experienced by individual passengers.
     Note 2: The capacity gure illustrates the effect of assuming that the trains could accommodate extra passengers equivalent to 35 percent of
     seats, as is common for commuter services into London.




                     3.3.30                                                            capacity of the train (a fuller de nition of PIXC
                     Table 3.11 shows that there is currently                          is contained in the appendix). The inter-city and
                     standing on six trains in the morning peak                        rural/inter-regional services currently assume
                     with two loaded above capacity. During the                        no standing and this needs to be considered
                     development of the RUS the power supply and                       in relation to crowding on these services,
                     other restrictions on these routes have been                      although in many cases these passengers
                     considered further to assess whether more or                      are likely to switch to car if expected to travel
                     longer trains could operate north of Cambridge.                   regularly in overcrowded conditions.

                     Crowding targets and policy                                       3.3.33
                                                                                       Whilst the RUS assumes that these targets
                     3.3.31
                                                                                       will continue to operate (this has been
                     Forecast demand for future years is covered
                                                                                       con rmed by the publication of the HLOS),
                     in Chapter 5. However, the need for capacity
                                                                                       it needs to be remembered that if standing
                     improvement will be dictated to some extent by
                                                                                       on the outer services were to be removed
                     the crowding targets set for the route.
                                                                                       completely then the demand for rolling stock
                     3.3.32                                                            and track capacity would rise, leading to
                     The analysis of peak crowding on London                           congestion and cost increases. Similarly if
                     services in this RUS uses the DfT’s franchise                     rolling stock on the inner services were to
                     Passengers In Excess of Capacity (expressed                       be recon gured, similar to Class 378 rolling
                     as PIXC) targets for London and the South                         stock, which is on order for use on the North
                     East commuter routes, which limits standing                       and East London Lines, then rolling stock
                     to less than 20 minutes and to be less than                       requirements and costs would decrease.
                     approximately 35 percent of the seated




42
3.4 Stations                                             especially at Stratford, Seven Sisters,

3.4.1                                                    Tottenham Hale and West Ham.

Whilst the above analysis has looked at the              3.4.3
capacity on train services it is also necessary          Stations serve as gateways to the network and
to consider stations from three perspectives: a)         thus facilities should re ect passenger use. The
station capacity, b) station facilities and c) overall   appendix contains a list of stations and includes
access to the network including car parking.             station category together with the facilities at each
These elements are now considered in turn.               station in the RUS area. Whilst the RUS does

3.4.2                                                    not consider the facilities in detail, this list will

In 2002 the SRA commissioned a study to                  assist with the identi cation of additional facilities

identify and prioritise the most congested               that could be provided in conjunction with station

stations and to survey these stations with a             improvement schemes (such as the National

view to assessing potential mitigations. In the          Station Improvement Programme (NSIP)) being

GA RUS area the stations surveyed were:                  undertaken from time to time by Network Rail, the
                                                         TOCs and local authorities/TfL.
    Liverpool St
                                                         3.4.4.
    Fenchurch St                                         By de nition, getting to the station is a key element
    Chelmsford                                           of any rail journey and access to stations is a
                                                         speci c element of the Government’s recent White
    Seven Sisters
                                                         Paper. The ease with which passengers can get
    Stratford                                            to stations determines the attractiveness of rail
                                                         relative to other modes, and also whether rail can
    Barking
                                                         ful l its potential in limiting car-borne journeys
    Cambridge                                            that cause congestion and contribute to carbon
    Chafford Hundred                                     emissions. In response to poor National Passenger
                                                         Survey ratings for “facilities for parking”, Passenger
    Walthamstow Central
                                                         Focus commissioned a report on the issue of
Surveys were carried out at these stations and the       access to stations. This included car parking
issues/mitigations are tabulated in Appendix C.          availability in the Rus area. The report also looked
                                                         in detail at how passengers access the railway
Whilst the station facility owner (the train
                                                         at four case study stations (Harlow Town, Grays,
operators at all these stations except Liverpool
                                                         Witham and Royston) and the extent to which
St and Fenchurch St) is responsible for
                                                         demand for rail is being suppressed because of
mitigating the effects of overcrowding, the table
                                                         the shortage of parking spaces at stations.
also notes that a number of programmes are
already looking into the crowding issues.                Table 3.12 gives a summary by train operator
                                                         of the number of car parks in the survey with
The demand modelling work has considered
                                                         high utilisation.
the issue of interchange with the LUL services,



  Table 3.12: Car Park Utilisation Summary

 Train                Less than           70–80%              80-90%                Over 90%              No data (No car
 Operator             70%                                                                                 park or free)

 ‘one’                18                  12                  12                    13                    23
 FCC                  4                   0                   0                     4                     3
 c2c                  7                   7                   1                     1                     1
Source: Passenger Focus survey 2006



                                                                                                                            43
                 This shows that of the 79 stations surveyed             high utilisation (greater than 80 percent
                 nearly half had over 70 percent car park                utilisation) Table 3.13 contains a breakdown of
                 utilisation. In terms of the locations experiencing     the data for the stations surveyed.



      Table 3.13: Car Park Utilisation Details

      Operator     Station                 Number of spaces            Utilisation at end of    Non-railway car park
                                                                       am peak                  within 1000 yards?

      ‘one’        Cambridge               458                         100%                     Yes
                   Ipswich                 448                         100%                     Yes
                   Norwich                 370                         100%                     Yes
                   Ely                     180                         100%                     Yes
                   Great Yarmouth          25                          100%                     Yes
                   Bury St Edmunds         26                          96%                      No
                   Witham                  430                         93%                      Yes
                   Manningtree             481                         91%                      No
                   Broxbourne              480                         91%                      No
                   Harlow Town             365                         91%                      Limited
                   Marks Tey               197                         91%                      No
                   Clacton                 26                          91%                      Yes
                   Cheshunt                185                         89%                      No
                   Gidea Park              78                          89%                      Limited
                   Wivenhoe                75                          89%                      No
                   Colchester              1493                        87%                      Yes
                   Bishops Stortford       570                         87%                      Yes
                   Kelvedon                285                         87%                      No
                   Diss                    168                         87%                      No
                   Audley End              506                         86%                      No
                   Stowmarket              300                         86%                      No
                   Harold Wood             160                         86%                      No
                   Billericay              383                         82%                      Limited
                   Hat eld Peverel         201                         81%                      No
      c2c          West Horndon            112                         100%                     No
                   Leigh-on-Sea            496                         81%                      Limited
      FCC          Royston                 262                         99%                      Yes
                   Kings Lynn              221                         95%                      Yes
                   Downham Market          98                          93%                      No
                   Ashwell & Morden        20                          92%                      No

     Source: Passenger Focus survey 2006




44
It will be noted that lack of station car parking      Similarly the result of the analysis of
capacity is a widespread issue and that it             suppressed demand (the difference
occurs at many of the main regional centres.           between the actual and calculated
‘one’ have also supplied their 2006/07 car             expected demand) in the Witham
park occupancy data, which re ects the above           catchment area indicated that restricted
 ndings, and also shows that the following             parking availability is likely to be a factor
additional stations have occupancy levels              causing demand for rail travel to be 19
above 80 percent: Braintree, Chelmsford,               percent lower than expected (although
Stowmarket, Thorpe-le-Soken, Wivenhoe,                 more detailed analysis of the data, possibly
Hockley, Prittlewell, Rochford, Shen eld,              applied to the whole region, is required).
Wickford, Chingford and Sawbridgeworth. It is
                                                    3.4.6
thus a key issue if access to the network is not
                                                    The study has highlighted the importance of the
to be deterred.
                                                    car parking issue and the potential for a lack of
3.4.5                                               parking to suppress passenger demand.
The ndings of the report, including the case
                                                    Overall the study concluded that there was
studies and analysis of suppressed demand
                                                    scope to extend a number of car parks to
as a result of the lack of parking, have
                                                    prevent additional car journeys. It also showed
indicated the following:
                                                    that whilst there was scope for promoting more
   Where most passengers originate from a           sustainable modes in some areas, the policy of
   relatively concentrated urban catchment          many councils to limit car parking may actually
   area, it is practical and realistic to promote   lead to more car travel rather than less.
   non-car access such as cycling, walking
   and bus.                                         3.5 Berthing
   Where the catchment area is rural or             3.5.1

   semi-rural these sustainable modes are           The following passenger rolling stock is

   not perceived as convenient or practical         operated over the GA RUS area:

   compared with use of the car. Here station          c2c operate Class 357 EMUs.
   car parks will continue to play a major role.
                                                       CrossCountry and East Midlands Trains
   Where car parking is limited there is likely        currently operate Class 170 and 158 DMUs
   to be an increase in kiss and ride. This            on services to East Anglia.
   potentially generates twice the number of
                                                       FCC operate Class 365 and 317 EMUs.
   car trips compared to parking at the station.
   At Harlow Town 18 percent of survey                 ‘one’ operate Class 315, 317, 321 and 360
   respondents said they would get a lift to the       EMUs, Class 153, 156 and 170 DMUs and
   station if future parking were limited.             a eet of Class 90 Electric Loco hauled
                                                       Mk3 coaches with DVTs.
   A full car park may result in rail users
   driving to more distant stations resulting in
   longer car trips. 38 percent of respondents
   at Royston would drive to another station
   if parking were limited and 17 percent of
   respondents at Witham would drive all the
   way to their end destination if future car
   parking were restricted.




                                                                                                        45
     3.5.2                                               3.6 Infrastructure
     Analysis has been undertaken looking at the         3.6.1
     overnight berthing of trains when not in use.       Infrastructure characteristics on the routes
     c2c, FCC and ‘one’ have stabling depots in the      are varied, re ecting historic service demands
     GA RUS area. The analysis has considered            and development. This has resulted in
     the current locations, number of sidings, length    different levels of route capability. The main
     of sidings, whether they are electri ed or not      infrastructure renewals are listed below. When
     and their current usage. A list of the current      renewals are planned synergies with potential
     GA RUS area berthing locations is included in       upgrades are considered and this includes the
     Appendix B.                                         policy on gauge enhancements, which was
     3.5.3                                               described in the Freight RUS.
     The analysis suggests that capacity is tight           On the Thameside route:
     just about everywhere but limited space
     may be available at Cambridge, East Ham,               The entire route is 25kV AC overhead

     Shoeburyness and Norwich. However Norwich              electri ed and the majority of the

     seems too remote to stable the current                 electri cation equipment dates from the

     EMU eet for operations south and east of               1950s. A programme of rewiring and

     Manningtree, East Ham and Shoeburyness                 component changes is underway. As part

     are only practicable for Thameside services            of the RUS analysis, the power supply on

     and Cambridge is subject to the requirements           the Tilbury Loop has been re-assessed

     of the Thameslink programme and station                against the increased power demand that

     development, including the potential for a new         results from the operation of longer trains.

     island platform.                                       The route was fully resignalled in the mid

     3.5.4                                                  1990s making it one of the most modern

     The ve 8-car Aldersbrook sidings near Ilford           and reliable routes in the country.

     are currently unused due to the shunting               The programme of track renewals
     moves and lack of staff depot facilities required      continues with S&C renewals planned for
     to berth stock there.                                  Grays and East Ham.

     3.5.5                                                  On the Great Eastern Main Line:
     The planned relocation of Thornton Fields
                                                            The main line and all branches south
     carriage sidings for the London 2012
                                                            of Ipswich (except the Sudbury line)
     Olympic and Paralympic Games may offer
                                                            are electri ed with 25kV AC overhead
     the opportunity for the provision of additional
                                                            equipment. Most of the equipment between
     berthing capacity in the longer term. The
                                                            Liverpool St and Colchester/Southend
     locations for the provision of further berthing
                                                            dates from the late 1950s. Due to several
     capacity are discussed under Option 23 in
                                                            recent de-wirements and the fact that much
     Chapter 7.
                                                            of the older equipment is xed tensioned,
     3.5.6                                                  a programme of extensive renewal is
     This section has looked at the berthing                being undertaken on the Liverpool St
     requirements of future rolling stock needs.            – Chelmsford/Southend section, with a
     Maintenance depots and their location is being         view to completing work by 2012.
     considered in the Network RUS and is not
                                                            The route between Liverpool St and Marks
     considered further here.
                                                            Tey was resignalled in the Mid 1990s,
                                                            the section between Colchester and
                                                            Norwich having been resignalled in the
                                                            1980s. Resignalling of the route between




46
Marks Tey and Colchester is currently           of life extension works on the remainder
being carried out, including the branch to      of the route (pending replacement with
Clacton and Walton, this scheme includes        modular signalling/ERTMS as noted
installation of bi-directional signalling       above). The resignalling at March is
between Colchester and Marks Tey. On            planned to remove the level crossing strike
the rural branches there is a programme         in issue, which currently delays some inter-
of re-wiring and life extensions work on        regional services.
the existing signalling, although modular
                                                Although the condition of the track
signalling and ERTMS technology are
                                                is generally good, the programme of
being rolled out across a number of routes
                                                renewals and life extension work continues
including the East Suffolk line by 2011,
                                                to ensure that track quality does not
Norwich to Lowestoft/Great Yarmouth
                                                deteriorate. It is anticipated that as freight
by 2013, Ely to Norwich and Ely to
                                                traf c grows on the Felixstowe – Nuneaton
Peterborough by 2015.
                                                route, the programme of track maintenance
Due to the age and condition of the track,      and renewals will also need to increase as
especially the number of ‘wet spots’ on         the tonnage increases.
the main line caused by the clay sub-
                                             3.6.2
strata, track renewals are concentrated
                                             For a more detailed description, Network Rail’s
on the GEML. There are a number of
                                             Route Plans should be consulted. These are
S&C renewals coming up over the next
                                             available at www.networkrail.co.uk and formed
few years, including works at Shen eld,
                                             part of the Strategic Business Plan.
Clacton and Colchester. Renewals are
also continuing on the rural and cross       3.7 Current network capacity and
country routes.
                                             utilisation
On the West Anglia Main Line:                Capacity analysis
The main line and southern branches          3.7.1
are electri ed with 25kV AC overhead         In recent years Network Rail has developed
equipment. The oldest section of OLE         a measure of the level of congestion on the
(dating from the 1960s) is between           network, known as the Capacity Utilisation
Liverpool St and Bishops Stortford (via      Index (CUI). The CUI is a measure of how
Seven Sisters), with the remainder dating    much of the available capacity on a section of
from the 1980s. The policy of component      line is used by the train service taking account
changes will continue along with routine     of route characteristics, timetable, the order
maintenance but no major work is planned.    of trains in the timetable and the headways.
The power supply limitations between         The CUI map for the Up morning peak 3 hours
Cambridge and Kings Lynn currently           is included in Figure 3.9 and more detailed
restrict services north of Cambridge.        capacity analysis is included below.
The route between Bethnal Green and
Elsenham was recently resignalled under
the West Anglia Route Modernisation
(WARM) project. The remainder of the
route is a mixture of relatively modern
power signalling and older mechanical and
electro mechanical equipment. Signalling
renewals are currently being undertaken in
the March area, as well as a programme




                                                                                                 47
     Figure 3.9: Peak Capacity Utilisation Index Map




       Key


                       90% or more

                       70 - 90%                                                                                          Cromer
                                                                                                       Sheringham
                       30 - 70%
                       < 30%



                                                                                                                                     Great
                          KINGS LYNN
                                                                                              NORWICH                               Yarmouth




                                                                                                                                  Lowestoft

      Peterborough                                  Thetford                                                Diss
       Cresent Jn



                March



                          ELY



                                                                     Bury St Edmunds
                                   CAMBRIDGE                                                                                      Felixstowe
                                                                                                                   IPSWICH




                                      STANSTED
         Letchworth
                                      AIRPORT                                     Sudbury
                                                                                                 Manningtree
                                                                                                                                       Harwich
                                                                                                                                        Town
                                                                                                                   COLCHESTER
          Hertford East           BISHOPS STORTFORD                   Braintree

                                                                                                                                          Walton-on-
                                                                                                           Colchester                     the-Naze
                                                                                                             Town
                                  Harlow Town                                                          Marks
                                                                                                       Tey                          Clacton
             Enfield Town         Broxbourne
                                                                                              Witham
                                  Cheshunt
                                                                       Chelmsford
                                        Chingford

                                  Tottenham                      Shenfield                                              Southminster
                     Seven        Hale      Walthamstow
                     Sisters                Central
                                                           Romford

          LONDON
     LIVERPOOL STREET
                                                                                                                         Southend Victoria
                                                                 Barking     Upminster        Pitsea
                                   Stratford
                                                                                                                                          Shoeburyness
                                                                                   Basildon                        Southend
         LONDON                                                                                                     Central
     FENCHURCH STREET
                                                                              Grays




48
3.7.2                                                  in speed of trains is utilising at some
The WA route carries a mixture of traf c               points nearly 20 percent of the capacity.
types with signi cant variations in speed,             This utilisation could be reduced by
acceleration and stopping pattern. There               standardising speeds and calling patterns
are serious issues with capacity on the West           of services.
Anglia route because of this mix of services
                                                       The analysis of the timetable shows that
and stopping patterns. The suburban lines into
                                                       the evening peak timetable is very well
Liverpool Street are heavily used in the peak
                                                       constructed to utilise capacity with the mix
and there is little capacity to run additional
                                                       of calling patterns in different services. This
trains. The two track section on the Lea Valley
                                                       forms a more robust timetable than the
and the mix of services causes a performance
                                                       morning peak which shows greater Route
risk throughout much of the day.
                                                       Section Usage.
The map also shows high utilisation on
                                                       East of Colchester the capacity used is
single lines, this is partially a function of the
                                                       much lower, typically between 10 and 30
constricted layout and partially the fact that lines
                                                       percent. This analysis revealed that the
such as the Stansted Airport and Felixstowe
                                                       current Rules of the Plan values between
(on the Great Eastern) branches are at or
                                                       Ipswich and Norwich needed to be revised.
approaching capacity due to their heavy use.
                                                       This value has been amended in the 2008
3.7.3                                                  version of Rules of the Plan.
On the Thameside route the service structure
                                                       In the off peak analysis Shen eld to
is in uenced by the complexity of the network
                                                       Chelmsford again shows the highest Route
and different stopping patterns. The limited
                                                       Section Usage, where a standardisation
signal capacity at West Ham does not allow
                                                       of speed and calling patterns of services
additional trains to call without reducing
                                                       would release further capacity.
capacity between Fenchurch Street and
Barking. The single line track section between         The amending of calling patterns on the
Upminster and Grays via Ockendon has only              GEML is very dif cult as the peak services
one passing loop which causes a capacity               are driven by demand at different stations.
constraint on this section. In addition peak           In the RUS options, the timetable pattern
capacity is heavily used between Barking and           has been amended where necessary to
Upminster where the signalling headways                allow for more capacity to be realised.
increase from two minutes to three.                    Where stops have been removed from
                                                       services, a different service has been called
3.7.4
                                                       at the stop to ensure there is still the same
The Capacity Analysis for the RUS in respect
                                                       level of service available at the station.
of the GE ML was undertaken by DfT and the
capacity analysis diagrams can be found in             Standardising the speed of services can
Appendix F.                                            realise further capacity but caution should
                                                       be taken as this will require slowing down
The DfT analysis shows that:
                                                       non-stop services, resulting in longer
    The GEML is almost at full capacity in the         journey times for passengers.
    peaks. The most heavily utilised sections
    are between Liverpool St and Colchester.

    The difference between the Route Section
    Usage and Rules of the Plan Usage shows
    that the timetable pattern and difference




                                                                                                         49
           RailSys performance modelling                    reveal some differences between sectional
                                                            running times (SRTs) and the point to point
           3.7.5
                                                            times calculated in RailSys, at the following
           RailSys has been used in the RUS to assess
                                                            locations:
           the performance impact of different timetable
           and infrastructure options. The base RailSys           Southbury Loop
           model can be examined to identify any issues
                                                                  Hertford East branch
           with the current infrastructure and timetable.
           RailSys has been used to model a ‘normal’              Peterborough East Junction
           weekday on the network, with all extreme               Ely – Thetford
           events (such as extreme weather or suicides)
                                                            3.7.8
           excluded from the delay data.
                                                            The SRTs have been reviewed by Train
           3.7.6                                            Planning Centre South on the Hertford East
           The following results show the Principal         branch and new SRTs will be available in
           2006 Timetable operating on the current          future timetables. The Train Planning Centre
           infrastructure. This is used to give an          (TPC) South is currently reviewing the SRTs
           indication of lateness of trains within          at Peterborough East and Ely – Thetford. The
           the model.                                       details from RailSys on point to point timings
           Unperturbed Model                                on the Southbury Loop will be taken forward in
                                                            future timetable development.
           3.7.7
           The diagram below shows that if the Principal    3.7.9
           2006 Timetable ran unperturbed then greater      There are also Rules of the Plan non-
           than 90 percent of trains would arrive within    compliances within the existing timetable at
           scheduled time. This shows that accurate         Tottenham Hale and Bethnal Green. The TPC
           planning rules have generally been used in       is working to resolve these issues and
           constructing the timetable. However, it did      changes are to be made in the May 2008
                                                            timetable change.




     Punctuality at arrival – Time to 3 minutes




                                                            Key

                                                                         Limit for punctuality: 03:00 min
                                                                         (<75%)
                                                                         (<90%)
                                                                         (>90%)




50
Perturbed Model

3.7.10
In the perturbed model a sample of primary
delays taken from historic TRUST data are
input onto the model. The diagrams below
show the punctuality recorded by RailSys.




    Morning Peak Hours – Punctuality – Time to 3 minutes late




                                               Key

                                                       Limit for punctuality: 03:00 min
                                                       (<75%)
                                                       (<90%)
                                                       (>90%)




    Morning Peak Hours – Punctuality – Time to 5 minutes late




                                               Key

                                                       Limit for punctuality: 05:00 min
                                                       (<75%)
                                                       (<90%)
                                                       (>90%)




                                                                                          51
     Morning Peak Hours – Punctuality – Time to 10 minutes late




                                                                Key

                                                                          Limit for punctuality: 10:00 min
                                                                          (<75%)
                                                                          (<90%)
                                                                          (>90%)




           The diagrams above show that in the morning          10 minutes of scheduled time, although the
           peak it is the WA route which shows most             scale of the diagram makes this very dif cult
           lateness on arrival at stations. This is due to      to identify. Again the number of trains using
           the high capacity utilisation of this route, which   the GEML mean that under perturbation
           results in many services being planned to            reactionary delays can quickly become a
           minimum planning rules. Stratford also shows         problem in the peak hours.
           less than 85 percent of trains arriving within




     Off-peak Hours – Punctuality – Time to 3 minutes late




                                                                Key

                                                                          Limit for punctuality: 03:00 min
                                                                          (<75%)
                                                                          (<90%)
                                                                          (>90%)




52
    Off-peak Hours – Punctuality – Time to 5 minutes late




                                                             Key

                                                                        Limit for punctuality: 05:00 min
                                                                        (<75%)
                                                                        (<90%)
                                                                        (>90%)




    Off-peak Hours – Punctuality – Time to 10 minutes late




                                                             Key

                                                                        Limit for punctuality: 10:00 min
                                                                        (<75%)
                                                                        (<90%)
                                                                        (>90%)




These diagrams show that during perturbed       the punctuality around the Felixstowe branch
running off-peak over 90 percent of services    shows less than 75 percent of the trains
arrive within 10 minutes of scheduled time,     are arriving within 3 minutes of scheduled
showing an improvement to the peak hours.       time. This is due to the increase in freight
This is due to the reduction in number of       movements in this area in the off peak and
services running in the off-peak allowing for   highlights the fact that the branch is now
more recovery between paths. In the off peak    virtually at capacity (with around 25 freight
there are more freight services running and     services per day in each direction).




                                                                                                           53
     3.8 Performance                                       these paths are used every hour, this means

     3.8.1                                                 that a train running out of course can drop into

     A number of generic factors contribute to overall     an earlier or later slot with a proven pathway.

     train service performance. These include the          3.8.5
     extent of infrastructure and rolling stock failure    Other speci c freight delay issues are:
     and, as the previous section has emphasised,
                                                              GEML – trains late to/from Thameside
     these factors also include the ability of train
                                                              cause delay between Stratford and Forest
     operations to work within timetable allowances
                                                              Gate, where the have to cross all four lines
     and the structure of the timetable given
                                                              using the at junction between Forest Gate
     infrastructure and rolling stock capability.
                                                              and Stratford. As trains cannot always be
     3.8.2                                                    held between Woodgrange Park and Forest
     One measure of passenger train performance               Gate this causes delays in the Up direction.
     is the Public Performance Measure (PPM),
                                                              Automatic Route Setting (ARS) in Liverpool
     which was introduced by the SRA and
                                                              Street IECC (Integrated Electronic Control
     continues under DfT and ORR. The PPM
                                                              Centre) can cause delays depending on
     combines gures for punctuality and reliability
                                                              which train it ‘sees’ rst. In some cases it
     into a single performance measure and
                                                              can cause trains to miss their paths across
     covers all scheduled services, seven days a
                                                              junctions causing delays.
     week. The PPM measures the performance
     of individual trains against their planned               In the Down direction trains can be
     timetable. The PPM is therefore the number               held at Stratford but bunching of freight
     of trains arriving ‘on time’ as a percentage of          services off the NLL means that trains are
     the total number of trains planned. For London           sometimes held on Channelsea Curve and
     and South East operators (including ‘one’), a            block the NLL leading to delays.
     train is de ned as ‘on time’ if it arrives within 5   Analysis of recent performance
     minutes of the planned destination arrival time
     shown in the public timetable (apart from the         3.8.6
     Norwich inter-city services that are measured         Performance for 2005/06 has been analysed
     against a ‘within 10 minute’ target).                 over the GA RUS routes.

     3.8.3                                                 3.8.7
     The PPM for the train operators as a whole in         The highest levels of delay were occurring at
     the 1st Quarter of 2007/08 as published by the        the following key route sections:
     ORR were: c2c 94.6%, Central Trains 87.8%,               Liverpool Street – Shen eld
     First Capital Connect 91.0%, ‘one’ railway
                                                              Colchester – Norwich
     92.6% and Silverlink 92.9%. These compare
     reasonably well with 2nd Quarter 2006/07,                Tilbury Loop
     which were c2c 94.5%, Central Trains 82.8%,
                                                              Liverpool Street – Broxbourne
     First Capital Connect 88.7%, ‘one’ railway
     87.8% and Silverlink 90.5%.                              Broxbourne – Cambridge

     3.8.4                                                 3.8.8
     One factor which assists with freight                 Analysis of the main delays has shown that
     performance is the two Class 4 (75mph)                the primary causes of delay on these route
     freight paths that have been built into each          sections are due to infrastructure faults, train
     standard hour on the GEML and one Class               regulation and train crew/rolling stock issues.
     4 freight path that has been built into each          Details of the delay analysis are contained in
     standard hour on the WAML. Since not all of           the Appendix D.




54
3.8.9                                             main line passenger and cross country
Whilst generally the highest number of delay      passenger and freight services operate.
minutes occur where train services are            This con rms the ndings of the RailSys
the busiest, the average total (primary and       analysis described earlier.
secondary) delay per incident varies across
                                                  3.8.10
the RUS area. The effects are shown in Tables
                                                  More detailed analysis has been undertaken
3.14 – 3.16, which indicate that on the GEML
                                                  covering the main sources of delay in 2005/06
the highest average delay per incident occurs
                                                  on each line and results are given in Tables
not only where the busiest passenger train
                                                  3.17 to 3.19. Network is also working with
services are but also on the main freight route
                                                  ‘one’ railway on its ‘Challenge 90’ programme,
out of Felixstowe. On Thameside the highest
                                                  which needs to bring its PPM above 90
average delay per incident occurs on the
                                                  percent. This initiative includes a range of
Tilbury Loop where the freight services run and
                                                  operational and infrastructure imporvements.
on West Anglia the highest average delay
per incident occurs where the busiest




 Table 3.14

 Great Eastern route section                            Average Delay per Incident (minutes)

 Wester eld Jn – Felixstowe                             48
 Liverpool Street – Shen eld                            45
 Shen eld – Colchester                                  42
 Colchester – Norwich                                   39



 Table 3.15

 Thameside route section                                Average Delay per Incident (minutes)

 Tilbury Loop                                           31
 Fenchurch Street – Shoeburyness                        20
 Ockendon Branch                                        19



 Table 3.16

 West Anglia route section                              Average Delay per Incident (minutes)

 Liverpool Street – Broxbourne                          34
 Broxbourne – Cambridge                                 32
 Haughley Jn – Cambridge/Ely                            32
 Cambridge – Kings Lynn                                 30




                                                                                                   55
     Table 3.17

     Great Eastern

     Total delay minutes   1,169,862
     Split (NR/TOC)        53:47
     Cause                 Issue                          Mitigations
     Fleet failures        Units failures                 Monitored through Joint Performance Improvement Plan
     Track faults          Broken rails and track         Action plans being implemented for each maintenance
                           geometry                       depot
     Commercial issues     Train regulation,              Looking at TSRs, timetable margins, dwell times and
                           timetabling, possession        possession planning (including the scheduling of
                           overruns.                      diverted services)
     Freight terminal      Late starts                    Performance effects of late running freight services
     operations                                           are currently being analysed by Network Rail’s ‘Six
                                                          Sigma’ team
     Track circuit         Mainly between Liverpool       Action plans being implemented for each maintenance
     failures              Street and Shen eld            depot
     OLE failures          Dewirements and speed          Rewiring programme being prepared
                           restrictions between Liverpool
                           St and Southend/Chelmsford


     Table 3.18

     Thameside

     Total delay minutes   194,426
     Split (NR/TOC)        32:68
     Cause                 Issue                          Mitigations
     Freight terminal      Late starts and waiting        Performance effects of late running freight services
     operations            acceptance                     are currently being analysed by Network Rail’s ‘Six
                                                          Sigma’ team
     Fleet failures        Mainly EMU traction problems Looking at traction maintenance
     OLE faults            Dewirements.                   Programme of OLE rewiring being undertaken
     Train crew issues     Awaiting train crew            Revised instructions now in place covering crew relief


     Table 3.19

     West Anglia

     Total delay minutes   469,952
     Split (NR/TOC)        49:51
     Cause                 Issue                          Mitigations
     Fleet failures        Unit problems                  Monitored through Joint Performance Improvement Plan
     Train crew issues     Awaiting train crew            Revised instructions now in place covering crew relief
     Freight terminal      Late starts and waiting for    Performance effects of late running freight services
     operations            shunters or staff to operate   are currently being analysed by Network Rail’s ‘Six
                           ground frame signals           Sigma’ team
     Track circuit         Mainly between Bethnal         Action plans being implemented for each
     failures              Green and Cambridge            maintenance depot


56
3.8.11                                               3.8.13
Analysis of Secondary delay for 2005/06              In order to address these gaps, discussions
also shows that the highest minutes per train        with stakeholders have highlighted several
delayed occur over lines where train services        opportunities for generating performance
run that start/end their journey outside the         improvements. These include:
RUS area. These include the freight routes
                                                     Gap 1:
to and from Felixstowe, both down the GEML
and cross country, as well as the trains from           Constructing a freight loop extending from
the Midlands routing into East Anglia via               Platform 10A at Stratford towards Maryland.
Peterborough. This again emphasises the                 Greater use of the Willesden - Gospel Oak –
impact of mixing services, which operate                Barking line to enable trains to avoid having
on and off route, and shows how services                to cross all four tracks on the GEML between
travelling between routes can “transmit” delay.         Stratford and Forest Gate. This includes
In addition freight services are subject to             upgrading the gauge, capacity and capability
different operating restrictions, for example they      of the route, as well as electri cation of the
cannot be turned short of their destination and         Gospel Oak – Barking section.
require longer to turnround at terminals. Details
                                                        The proposed construction of dynamic
of the secondary delay analysis are contained
                                                        loops in connection with the proposed new
in the Appendix D.
                                                        station north east of Chelmsford.
3.8.12
                                                        Replacement of the level crossings in the
From the analysis above the main performance
                                                        Lea Valley with bridges or underpasses.
gaps can be summarised as being:
                                                        Carry out local re-spacing of signals at
1) Congestion in the Lea Valley, through
                                                        West Ham and increase speeds between
Stratford and further down the GEML; and
                                                        Barking and Upminster to improve capacity.
on the Thameside route at West Ham and
between Barking and Upminster.                       Gap 2:

2) Single lines, which are close to capacity,           Partial doubling of the Felixstowe branch.
especially the Felixstowe and Stansted Airport
                                                        Converting Haughley Junction to a double
branches.
                                                        junction from a single lead.
3) The need to review Sectional Running Times
                                                     Gap 3:
in some sections and potentially review calling
patterns/differential speeds between services.          Removing speed restrictions on Class 6 (up
This applies to both passenger and freight              to 60mph) freight services on the Ipswich
services. Some work will be implemented in the          – Peterborough route.
May 2008 timetable on West Anglia with Great            Reviews of Sectional Running Times.
Eastern later.
                                                     Gap 4:
4) General issues including infrastructure
                                                        Continuing with the development of
improvements, train regulation, crew/rolling
                                                        performance improvement schemes
stock issues, freight workings and imported
                                                        using the NRDF, including the removal
secondary delays.
                                                        of the restrictions on Ely West Curve
                                                        and linespeed improvements between
                                                        Upminster and Barking.




                                                                                                         57
        Removing the long signal blocks between         Thameside route, which allows some of the
        Kennett and Bury St Edmunds.                    traf c to continue to use rail and the presence
                                                        of bi-directional signalling has the potential to
        Renew badly performing sections of
                                                        reduce the impact of overnight possessions.
        the OLE.
                                                        Ipswich – Felixstowe
     3.8.14
                                                        The Felixstowe branch can be maintained
     These various issues have been taken account
                                                        only on Saturday nights and Sundays when
     of in the options developed in later chapters.
                                                        the freight service is not running. The partial
     3.9 Engineering Access - current                   doubling of the branch under the HPUK
                                                        proposals should help with this issue.
     situation
     3.9.1                                              Harwich Branch
     Currently there are three types of possession      The Harwich branch does not currently
     for engineering access on the Greater Anglia       suffer from the restrictions that apply to the
     routes: normal possessions taken overnight         Felixstowe branch but this may change as
     during “white periods” when no trains are          freight demand rises when the Bathside
     booked to run; cyclic possessions, which are       Bay development comes on stream. This
     taken for maintenance on a route section           may require the use of single line working
     generally on a 12 – 13 week cycle; and             (SLW) (or other measures) so that access for
     abnormal possessions, which are generally          maintenance can be maintained.
     taken as required over a weekend in order to       Ipswich – Norwich
     carry out renewal and enhancement works.           The route north of Ipswich does not normally
     Both the cyclic and the abnormal possessions       present access problems as suitable cyclic
     require the train service to be diverted (in the   patterns are available due to the lower levels
     case of freight and some passenger services)       of demand. This may change as the level
     or a replacement bus service provided. The         of freight traf c grows between Ipswich
     current access situation around the various        and Haughley Jn. During longer periods of
     route sections is brie y described below.          disruption limited passenger services can run
     Liverpool St – Shen eld                            from Norwich to Liverpool St via Cambridge.
     The route is maintained by taking two              Other Great Eastern branches
     track possessions on a Sunday, although            The rural branches off the GEML do not
     major maintenance items, renewals and              normally present access problems due the
     enhancements require more intrusive                lower levels of demand on these routes.
     possessions.
                                                        Ipswich – Ely – Peterborough
     Shen eld – Ipswich                                 This two track section is currently maintained
     Maintenance is currently carried out using         using SLW overnight with occasional longer
     overnight single line working and a limited        blocks at weekends. As the level of freight
     number of 15-hour Saturday night/Sunday            traf c rises the lack of bi-directional signalling
     possessions. Bi-directional signalling is being    and the delays to freight services operating
     installed between Marks Tey and Colchester to      around the SLW mean that this is not a
     improve maintenance opportunities, however,        longer term solution to access problems. The
     in the longer term, full diversionary capability   development of a W10 diversionary route will
     is required.                                       be required to solve the issue.
     Shen eld – Southend/Southminster                   Liverpool St – Cheshunt and branches
     This route is maintained using cyclic and          The section of route between Bethnal Green
     longer weekend possessions. The Southend           and Cheshunt can operate as two separate
     area is also served by c2c trains on the           railways, so that cyclic access is not a




58
signi cant issue, although publicity needs to       Barking – Pitsea via Basildon
pre-warn passengers interchanging off the           This section is maintained by two track
Underground at Tottenham Hale or Seven              possessions overnight or on Sunday. Services
Sisters, as to which line is blocked. The need      from the Southend direction can be diverted
to keep the traction power live to Chingford        via Grays and passengers from Upminster can
depot for as long as possible (so that units        use the adjacent LUL District Line. This section
can be prepared for service) can also restrict      is equipped with bi-directional signalling but it
possession times.                                   is only recently that this has started to be used
                                                    during engineering work.
Cheshunt – Stansted airport
This two track section is currently maintained by   Barking/Upminster to Pitsea via Grays
possession of both tracks, generally overnight      Again this section is maintained using two
or on Sunday mornings. There is no realistic        track possessions mainly on Saturday nights
diversionary route for the Stansted traf c          and Sundays. The growth of the London
when the route is closed. Under the Ef cient        Gateway Port is likely to lead to greater use of
Engineering Access programme an opportunity         Sundays for maintenance, although services
has been identi ed to reduce overnight access       to Barking can generally be diverted by
when the traf c is highest between Thursdays        Ockendon or Rainham. If single line working
and Sundays. In addition it has also proved         were used via Rainham then there may be
possible to reduce the number of weekend            scope to reduce the use of replacement buses
possessions required during the year.               at weekends.

Stansted – Kings Lynn                               Pitsea – Shoeburyness
This route section is generally maintained          This section of line is maintained using
in two line possessions overnight and at            overnight/weekend possessions, the main
weekends. The Cambridge – Kings Cross               problem being the need to bus passengers or
route provides some diversions for passengers       ask them to travel via the GE route to Liverpool
travelling between the Cambridge area and           St. An additional issue is the restrictions
London. The layout of the station at Cambridge      on possessions due to the need to keep
does create problems when the platforms need        Shoeburyness depot live for as long as possible,
to be blocked leading to considerable use of        to allow units to be prepared for service.
replacement buses. Further problems will arise
                                                    3.9.2
as the growth of Stansted drives longer service
                                                    The above section has described the current
hours and the increase in cross country freight
                                                    access arrangements and some of the existing
will reduce access in the Ely area.
                                                    restrictions. A problem which also needs to
Liverpool St. station                               be highlighted is the impact of the increasing
The six track approach to Liverpool St. station     volume of renewal and enhancement works
is maintained by using two track possessions        on weekend travel at a time when customer
on Sundays tied in with the possessions             expectations and ridership are rising. This is
further out. The main problem arises with the       leading to the need to reduce the impact of
need to outberth stock from the platforms,          possessions as well as addressing the speci c
which can lead to dif culties in gaining            shortfalls identi ed in the RUS, which are
possession of the line punctually.                  listed below:

Fenchurch St – Barking                                 Whilst there are generally diversionary
This two track section is maintained using             arrangements for many of the services,
overnight and Sunday possessions.                      or traf c overnight/at weekends is lighter,
Services can be diverted into Liverpool St             analysis of the loadings on the GE route
during such possessions.                               has shown that Saturday traf c is around
                                                       40 percent of weekday loadings and




                                                                                                        59
     Sunday around 20 percent (although            3.9.3
     Saturday midday travel to London is           The above issues are largely being taken
     similar to weekday off peak loadings and      forward as part of the Ef cient Engineering
     on Sunday afternoons/evening services         Access initiative to make the railway as 24/7
     are also busy). In addition, on the inner     as possible.
     suburban services TfL is keen to extend
     operating hours. Thus access needs to be      3.10 Summary of baseline gaps
     used as ef ciently as possible maximising     and issues
     the use of diversionary routes and            3.10.1
     minimising the impact of possessions on       From the above, the gaps identi ed can be
     two track sections of line.                   summarised as follows
     As demand for travel to and from Stansted     1) Passenger demand has increased by
     Airport increases, Network Rail and ‘one’     around 30 percent (over ten years) on the
     have successfully identi ed ways of           Great Eastern and West Anglia routes and by
     limiting access to the less busy nights of    around 20 percent on the Thameside route.
     the week and leaving the weekends free of     These increases have been steadiest on the
     possessions where possible.                   Great Eastern route. Demand on the West
     The need to prepare units for service         Anglia route appears to have been more
     means that the option of providing            susceptible to economic uctuations: growth
     alternative power feeds to the various        on the route via Tottenham Hale was ten
     depots, especially Chingford and              percent in 2007.
     Shoeburyness, is being considered for         2) Capacity is exceeded on some trains
     potential funding under the NRDF.             on all routes with over-crowding especially
     The growth in freight from Felixstowe         severe on Cambridge – Liverpool Street
     and Harwich will lead to increasing           and GE Inner services. Future growth will
     maintenance dif culties. Building on work     be severely constrained on these services
     undertaken as part of the East Coast          without additional passenger capacity because
     Ports studies, Network Rail is currently      the best timed trains are so full that some
     examining the potential to use the            passengers are unable to board the trains.
     Felixstowe – Peterborough – Nuneaton          Passenger numbers are typically greatest at
     and Ipswich – Stratford – ECML/WCML as        key interchanges (i.e. Stratford, Seven Sisters,
     diversionary routes for each other and this   Tottenham Hale, West Ham and Limehouse)
     work forms an element of the cross country    rather than at London Terminals.
     freight upgrade project.                      3) More than half of London bound peak
     More widespread use of SLW as                 passengers travel on trains that arrive in
     a means of keeping trains running             London between 08:00 and 09:00. Reduced
     during engineering work also needs            fares for early arrival (before 07:15) on the
     consideration.                                West Anglia and Thameside routes did not
                                                   shift signi cant numbers of passengers out of
                                                   the busiest hour.

                                                   4) The rural and inter-regional services are
                                                   also well used, especially on services operating
                                                   to/from the regional centres at peak times.

                                                   5) Freight operations are dominated by the
                                                   container and aggregate markets. Growth is
                                                   predicted in the aggregate services, especially




60
those serving the Olympic Park at Stratford.
The volume of maritime containers from
Thameside and Felixstowe is increasing
rapidly and further growth is predicted.
This will require increases in both gauge
and capacity.

6) Performance has been improving but there
is scope for further improvement through
a number of initiatives. These range from
a review of Rules of the Plan allowances
through to improvements to the infrastructure
delivered by both NRDF schemes and the
renewal of poorly performing assets.

7) The growth in traf c is leading to the need
to reduce the impact of engineering access on
these routes.

8) There is scope to carry out improvements
to stations: including improving interchange;
reducing crowding at key stations;
development of car parks; and improving
access to the busier stations, particularly in the
rural areas.




                                                     61
     4. Forecast of change – wider demand



         This chapter provides a summary of the             First Capital Connect
         external drivers of change, together with a
                                                            BAA
         description of stakeholder aspirations for
         enhancements to the network. Where possible        Passenger Focus (as observers)
         these aspirations have been included in the        London TravelWatch (as observers)
         strategic options listed later in this document.
                                                            Network Rail
         4.1 Context                                        Of ce of Rail Regulation (as observers)
         4.1.1
         In order to understand the extent and location     4.2 Changes to population, housing
         of development based growth, the Draft East        and employment
         of England Plan (DEEP) and the London              4.2.1
         Plan have been reviewed and a summary              The DEEP sets out the strategy to guide
         of the drivers of growth has been included         planning and development in the East of
         in this section. The DEEP was published            England to the 2021. It covers economic
         in November 2004, with the Review Panel            development, housing, the environment,
         recommendations being issued in June 2006.         transport, waste management, culture, sport
         The numbers issued by the Secretary of State,      and recreation and mineral extraction. The
         in response to the consultation and Panel          tables below show the employment and
         report, are also included in this chapter. The     housing gures to 2021 contained in the
         London Plan was published in February 2004.        DEEP, each table is then followed by a table

         4.1.2                                              summarising the gures published by the

         The stakeholder aspirations have been              Secretary of State in December 2006, together

         raised at the key Stakeholder Management           with a brief description of the assumed

         Group and in discussion with wider industry        distribution of the main growth areas within the

         stakeholders. The Stakeholder Management           region.

         Group has met regularly during the                 The tables exclude Bedfordshire for two
         development of the RUS and comprises               reasons: a) the DEEP only contains very
         representatives of the following organisations:    provisional gures for the county due to the

         Department for Transport                           interaction with the Milton Keynes South
                                                            Midlands sub-regional strategy and b)
         Transport for London                               Bedfordshire is outside the area covered by
         Association of Train Operating Companies           the GA RUS.

         English Welsh and Scottish Railway

         Freightliner

         GB Railfreight

         ‘one’ railway

         c2c London Lines




62
 Table 4.1 Regional Employment Growth 2001 – 2021

 District Grouping                         Districts                                      2001 – 2021

 Cambridgeshire and Peterborough                                                             92,900
 Cambridgeshire                            Cambridge City, South Cambs, Huntingdon,          71,000
                                           Fenland
 Peterborough                              Peterborough UA                                   21,900
 Essex and Unitaries                                                                        116,000
 Essex Thames Gateway                      Thurrock, Basildon, Castle Point, Southend-       55,000
                                           on-Sea
 Essex – Haven Gateway                     Colchester, Tendring                              20,300
 Rest of Essex                             Harlow, Uttlesford, Chelmsford, Braintree,        40,700
                                           Maldon, Rochford, Epping Forest, Brentwood
 Hertfordshire                                                                               64,700
 Norfolk                                                                                     42,600
 Suffolk                                                                                     51,900
 Suffolk – Haven Gateway                   Ipswich, Suffolk Coastal, Babergh                 29,400
 Rest of Suffolk                           Mid Suffolk, St Edmunsbury, Forest Heath,         22,500
                                           Waveney
 OVERALL TOTAL (excl. Bedfordshire)                                                         368,100
Source: DEEP December 2004


The numbers published by the Secretary of State
show a general increase spread over the region
with a small reduction in Suffolk.



 Table 4.2 Summary of Employment totals published by the Secretary of State

 District Grouping                                                     2001              2001 – 2021

 Cambridgeshire & Peterborough                                    359,100                    95,000
 Essex & Unitaries                                                648,100                   131,000
 Hertfordshire                                                    481,800                    68,000
 Norfolk                                                          347,000                    55,000
 Suffolk                                                          305,700                    53,000
 East of England Total (excl. Bedfordshire)                    2,141,700                    402,000
Source: Plan totals published by Secretary of State 19 December 2006




                                                                                                        63
     The majority of the development of                   Huntingdon and Peterborough, including
     interest to the RUS being concentrated in            the development at Alconbury.
     Cambridgeshire, the Essex Thames Gateway
                                                          Other developments – Other
     and around Norwich, the main developments
                                                          developments are also taking place in the
     being:
                                                          regional centres at Chelmsford, Colchester
        Essex Thames Gateway – development                and Ipswich, as well as those associated
        of the old Shell Haven re nery into a             with the ports developments at Felixstowe
        container port, logistics terminal and            and Bathside Bay, together with the airport
        business centre creating 16,500 jobs;             and associated development around
        Redevelopment of the town centres                 Stansted.
        for retail, leisure and business; and
                                                       Whilst the DEEP is based on the assumption
        development of a university campus in
                                                       that out-commuting is reduced, the scale of
        Southend providing 6,500 jobs.
                                                       development, even if it fully materialises, is
        Norwich – employment opportunities             unlikely to prevent continued commuting from
        building on the industries based on            the region into London.
        biotechnology, food processing, nance,
                                                       4.2.2
        insurance, business services, retail,
                                                       The regional housing development is
        leisure, media and education.
                                                       presented in a similar format to that for
        Cambridgeshire – mainly centred around         employment, the split by district grouping being
        the knowledge based industries in the city     shown in Table 4.3 with the gures published
        and business/research parks, together with     by the Secretary of State are summarised in
        the continued expansion of Addenbrookes        Table 4.4.
        hospital. In addition there are distribution
        centres in the west of the county around




64
 Table 4.3 Regional Housing Growth 2001 – 2021

 District Grouping                          Districts                                           2001 – 2021

 Cambridgeshire and Peterborough                                                                   89,300
 Cambridgeshire                             Cambridge City, South Cambs, Huntingdon, Fenland       68,100
 Peterborough                               Peterborough UA                                        21,200
 Essex and Unitaries                                                                              123,400
 Essex Thames Gateway                       Thurrock, Basildon, Castle Point,                      39,200
                                            Southend-on-Sea
 Essex – Haven Gateway                      Colchester, Tendring                                   25,600
 Essex – London Arc                         Epping Forest, Brentwood                               13,900
 Rest of Essex                              Harlow, Uttlesford, Chelmsford, Braintree,             44,700
                                            Maldon, Rochford
 Hertfordshire                                                                                     79,600
 Herts – London Arc                         Three Rivers, Watford, Hertsmere, Broxbourne,          36,600
                                            Dacorum, St Albans, Welwyn Hat eld
 Rest of Herts                              North Herts, Stevenage, East Herts                     43,000
 Norfolk                                                                                           72,600
 Kings Lynn & West Norfolk                  Kings Lynn & West Norfolk                              11,000
 Great Yarmouth                             Great Yarmouth                                          6,000
 Breckland                                  Breckland                                              15,200
 North Norfolk                              North Norfolk                                           6,400
 Greater Norfolk                            Norwich, Broadlands, S Norfolk                         34,000
 Suffolk                                                                                           58,600
 Suffolk – Haven Gateway                    Ipswich, Suffolk Coastal, Babergh                      30,700
 Waveney                                    Waveney                                                 5,800
 Rest of Suffolk                            Mid Suffolk, St Edmunsbury, Forest Heath               22,100
 OVERALL TOTAL (excl. Bedfordshire)                                                               423,500
Source: DEEP December 2004


Again the gures published by the Secretary of
State show an increase spread across the region.



 Table 4.4 Summary of Housing totals published by the Secretary of State

 District Grouping                                                     2001                    2001 – 2021

 Cambridgeshire & Peterborough                                     297,800                         98,300
 Essex & Unitaries                                                 693,900                        127,000
 Hertfordshire                                                     430,700                         83,200
 Norfolk                                                           363,100                         78,700
 Suffolk                                                           295,900                         61,700
 East of England Total (excl. Bedfordshire)                     2,081,500                         448,900
Source: Plan totals published by Secretary of State 19 December 2006


                                                                                                              65
               The majority of the development of                 Again this will lead to commuting into local
               interest to the RUS being concentrated in          centres as well as further commuting to
               Cambridgeshire, the Essex Thames Gateway,          London.
               Central Essex and around Ipswich and
                                                                  4.2.3
               Norwich, the main developments being:
                                                                  With regard to the growth of jobs in London
               Cambridgeshire – mainly concentrated               and the population changes in the east of the
               around Cambridge, with intensi cation of           city, the Greater London Authority Act 1999
               existing development in the city, as well as       placed responsibility for strategic planning in
               new developments along the Cambridge               London on the Mayor. The Act required him to
               – Huntingdon corridor and around                   produce a Spatial Development Strategy for
               Addenbrookes.                                      London, referred to as the London Plan, which
                                                                  covers the period until 2016.
               Peterborough - development is also centred
               around Peterborough, including the Hamptons        4.2.4
               development to the south of the city.              Over the next 15 years the population of London
                                                                  is forecast to grow by 810,000, with the working
               Essex Thames Gateway – new developments
                                                                  population growing by 516,000. It is also
               along the Thames in the Barking – Thurrock
                                                                  forecast that jobs, especially in the nance and
               corridor as part of the Communities Plan.
                                                                  service sectors will rise by 636,000, many being
               Essex Haven Gateway – Development                  in Central London and East London, including
               around Colchester, including the Hythe             the City and the Isle of Dogs.
               development to the east of the town.
                                                                  4.2.5
               Rest of Essex – Planned development                In order to plan for this growth (in accordance
               across the middle of Essex, especially around      with the Mayor of London’s objectives) the
               Chelmsford and Harlow.                             London Plan contains ve Sub-Regional
               Greater Norfolk – Norwich and surrounding          Strategies, which cover the whole of London.
               region, including local towns such as              The strategies identify Opportunity Areas,
               Wymondham.                                         Areas for Intensi cation and Areas for
                                                                  Regeneration.
               Suffolk Haven Gateway – development in
               and around Ipswich.                                4.2.6
                                                                  The breakdown of population, housing and
               Rest of Suffolk – Development along
                                                                  employment in the ve sub-regions as forecast
               the Ipswich – Stowmarket – Bury St
                                                                  in the London Plan to 2016 are shown in Table
               Edmunds corridor.
                                                                  4.5 (all gures are in thousands):

     Table 4.5

     Sub-Region      Population                         Housing           Employment

                     2001       2016        Annual      Min annual        2001          2016        Annual
                     (000s)     (000s)      growth      target            (000s)        (000s)      growth
                                            (000s)      (000s)                                      (000s)
     Central           1525        1738         14.2               7.1         1644        1883               15.9
     East              1991        2262         18.1               6.9         1087        1336               16.6
     West              1421        1560           9.3              3.0          780          866               5.7
     North             1042        1199          9.0               3.1          386          412               1.7
     South             1329        1380           3.4              2.8          587          623               2.4
     London            7308        8117         53.9              23.0         4484        5120               42.4




66
This clearly illustrates the policy of targeting population        Central London Sub-Region
and employment growth in the centre and east of the city.          Table 4.6 details the planned Opportunity Areas
                                                                   in the sub-region, including the forecast job and
4.2.7
                                                                   new home projections (note this table covers the
The planned development in the areas of interest to the
                                                                   Opportunity Areas only and not all areas within
RUS (i.e. those covering the central, eastern and north
                                                                   the sub-region scheduled for development).
eastern sectors of the city) is brie y described below:



 Table 4.6

 Opportunity Area                                  Area (ha)         New jobs to 2016         New homes to 2016

 Waterloo                                                     39                 15,000                       500
 London Bridge                                                30                 24,000                       500
 Elephant & Castle                                            23                  4,200                      4,200
 Vauxhall/Nine Elms/Battersea                                 78                  7,600                      1,500
 Kings Cross                                                  53                 11,400                      1,250
 Paddington                                                   30                 23,200                      3,000


Areas scheduled for Intensi cation in the Central                  East London Sub-Region
Sub-Region are largely concentrated in the West                    The East London Sub-Region is the largest and
End, especially around the proposed Crossrail                      covers the whole of East and South East London
stations. The only location outside the central area               out to the borders with Kent and Essex.
is the redevelopment around the new stadium in the
                                                                   Table 4.7 details the planned Opportunity Areas in
Arsenal/Holloway area.
                                                                   the sub-region, including the forecast job and new
                                                                   home projections:



 Table 4.7

 Opportunity Area                                  Area (ha)         New jobs to 2016         New homes to 2016

 Bishopsgate/South Shoreditch                                 35                 16,000                       800
 Whitechapel/Aldgate                                          31                 14,000                       700
 Isle of Dogs                                             100                   100,000                      3,500
 Stratford                                                124                    30,000                      4,500
 Lower Lea Valley                                         250                     8,500                      6,000
 Royal Docks                                              368                    11,000                      5,500
 Barking Reach                                            210                       200                    10,000
 London Riverside                                         418                     4,000                      3,000
 Deptford Creek/Greenwich Riverside                           72                  5,500                      1,000
 Greenwich Peninsular                                     104                    15,000                      7,500
 Belvedere/Erith                                          242                     5,000                      1,400
 Thamesmead                                               121                     1,500                      3,000
 Ilford                                                       56                       -                     5,500
 TOTAL                                                 1,812                    210,700                    52,400




                                                                                                                        67
               Of particular importance to the RUS are the       d) The Lower Lea Valley is scheduled for
               following:                                           major redevelopment by the London
                                                                    Development Agency. This development
               a) The Bishopsgate, Shoreditch, Whitechapel
                                                                    will generate both jobs and housing.
                  and Aldgate developments cover the
                  eastern spread of the city of ces for use by   e) Barking Reach is seen as a major source
                  the nancial business sector.                      of housing in the Thames Gateway.

               b) The continued development of the Isle             North London Sub-Region
                  of Dogs is seen as major source of                Table 4.8 details the planned Opportunity
                  employment in the capital again with the          Areas in the sub-region, including the
                  majority of jobs being in the nancial             forecast job and new home projections:
                  sector. Further east, the Royal Docks will
                                                                    The Upper Lea Valley comprises a six–mile
                  be a similar development but on a smaller
                                                                    corridor running north from Stratford. The
                  scale.
                                                                    corridor includes Tottenham Hale and a
               c) The Stratford City Development has gained         number of old industrial sites which are
                  planning consent and will be a major retail,      scheduled for redevelopment. The jobs
                  of ce and residential centre.                     created will be in the business park, and
                                                                    the new Middlesex University campus.



     Table 4.8

     Opportunity Area                              Area (ha)     New jobs to 2016         New homes to 2016

     Upper Lea Valley                                      416              10,000                          700
     Tottenham Hale                                         26                5,000                         200
     Cricklewood/Brent Cross                               107                5,000                     5,000




               4.3 Freight growth issues by                         Thames Gateway development.
               commodity                                            Olympic Park/Lower Lea Valley
               The freight growth forecasts described below         development.
               have been provided by the Freight RUS team
                                                                    Airport expansion at Stansted.
               and also, in the case of the maritime container
               traf c, from the port planning inquiries.            Flood defence works.

               Aggregates                                           London Underground infrastructure
                                                                    renewals.
               4.3.1
               The market will continue to enjoy underlying      4.3.2
               growth but with uctuations according to the       Aggregate traf c will therefore increase on
               general fortunes of the building industry and     all routes, especially the West Anglia and
               major construction schemes. Within the route      Thameside routes. Additional rail aggregate
               potential schemes include;                        facilities have been proposed or are being
                                                                 considered for Bow, Bury St Edmunds, the
                  Crossrail.
                                                                 Olympic Park, West Thurrock and Whittlesea.
                  M25 widening.                                  Details of the Olympic Park are still in
                                                                 development, however, Bow is likely to feature




68
strongly in the plans for aggregate delivery, but       Intermodal business
the depot may close temporarily during The
                                                        4.3.5
Games themselves. There are also plans for a
                                                        This sector is likely to see very signi cant
new connection between the network and LUL
                                                        change. Deep sea containerised traf c into
at Barking, so that materials can be delivered
                                                        the UK is growing by around ve per cent per
for the LUL upgrade project.
                                                        year, particularly driven by the far-east. The
4.3.3                                                    nite capacity of existing major container ports
Whilst recycled aggregates are expected to              will start to curtail trade within the next few
increase their market share this is from a very         years without expansion schemes.
small base. Primary aggregate tax encourages
                                                        4.3.6
use of re-cycled material but it has not
                                                        Port developers have responded to the market
signi cantly altered the economic advantage
                                                        with a series of proposals for signi cant port
of bulk primary production and rail movement.
                                                        expansions with rail to the market implications.
The demand for quarried/dredged material will
                                                        Predicted demand from these sites is shown in
remain high and continue to support and expand
                                                        Table 4.9.
the ows listed. Because operators generally
maximise train payloads, volume increases               The actual numbers assumed in the future
imply that additional trains will need to run.          year tables in Chapter 5 of this document are
                                                        shown in Tables 4.10 to 4.12. These are taken
Other bulk raw material production/
                                                        from the Freight RUS for 2014/15 and the port
consumption
                                                        planning inquiries for 2023. In Table 4.11 the
4.3.4                                                   Base Case scenario assumes no development
There is potential for expansion in non-                of London Gateway Port by 2014/15 and
intermodal traf cs via ports, particularly Tilbury,     Sensitivity Test 2 (Sense Test 2) assumes 8
but these proposals are at an early stage of            trains per day by 2014/15 and consequently
development. The Olympic Park construction              fewer additional services from Felixstowe and
may attract steel and other commodities by rail         Bathside Bay.
in addition to aggregates.


  Table 4.9: Likely train path demand arising from port expansion.

 Site                                                           Potential increase in trains per day each way

 Bathside Bay (Harwich)                                                                                    10 – 15
 Felixstowe South (expansion of existing port)                                                             15 – 20
 London Gateway Port                                                                                       19 – 25




  Table 4.10: Base Year trains per day each way (Deep sea intermodal only)

                             NLL & Sfd                GOB if W10                        GE          Cross Country

 Felixstowe                           14                          -                      14                      8
 Bathside Bay                           -                         -                        -                     -
 London                                 -                         -                        -                     -
 Gateway Port
 TOTAL                                14                          -                      14                      8




                                                                                                                     69
         Table 4.11: Forecast trains per day each way in 2014/15.
         Unconstrained by capacity (Deep sea intermodal only)1




                                                                                                           Country
                                                         GOB if
                                 NLL &




                                                                                                           Cross




                                                                                                                                                  Total
                                                         W10




                                                                                                                                     Port
                                 Sfd




                                                                                    GE
                               Base        Sense Base              Sense Base                 Sense Base             Sense Base                 Sense
                               Case        Test 2 Case             Test 2 Case                Test 2 Case            Test 2 Case                Test 2


         Felixstowe                 27          22            -             -        27           22          12          11          39           33
         Bathside Bay                6             5          -             -         6               5        3             2          9             7

         London                       -            2          -             6            -            -         -            -              -         8
         Gateway Port
         TOTAL                      33          29            -             6        33           27          15          13          48           48
     Source: Freight RUS data


         Table 4.12: Forecast trains per day each way in 2023
         (Deep sea intermodal only)

                                  NLL & Sfd             GOB if W10                             GE         Cross Country              Port Total

         Felixstowe                          18                         -                       18                     19                        37
         Bathside Bay                          6                        -                        6                      6                        12
         London                                6                      17                         6                       -                       23
         Gateway Port
         TOTAL                               30                       17                        30                     25                        72
     Source: Port planning inquiry data


                       4.3.7                                                                 Felixstowe in line with the 2014/15 Freight
                       The Freight RUS forecasts contain a regional                          RUS forecast. Between 3 and 4 additional
                       breakdown of likely destinations of the new                           trains per day are now running over and above
                       trains projected. These broadly mirror the                            2004/05 volumes.
                       existing Haven and North Thameside services,
                                                                                             4.3.10
                       i.e. 25 percent go via the ECML and 75
                                                                                             In addition to demand for new train services
                       percent via the WCML.
                                                                                             an important trend within the Intermodal sector
                       4.3.8                                                                 is the growth of “high cube” (9’ 6”) containers
                       Felixstowe South, Bathside Bay and the                                in the world market. It is forecast (source
                       London Gateway Port have received planning                            Freightliner group) that by 2012 these larger
                       permission to proceed.                                                containers will comprise around 50 percent of
                                                                                             all boxes conveyed. Currently, on the majority
                       4.3.9
                                                                                             of routes these can be moved only on special
                       Since the base year of 2004/05, the Freight
                                                                                             low oor wagons, which reduce train payload
                       RUS reports that there has already been
                                                                                             (because they are limited to 40’ of loading
                       signi cant growth on the GE route from



     1    The Freight RUS also predicts up to 4 additional container trains per day out of Tilbury by 2014/15 over the 2004/05 base of 5. Already
          1-2 tpd of these additional services are running in line with forecast. Current services run via the NLL. Most of these additional services
          would run over the GOB if W10 gauge clearance was completed, though 1 or 2 could require use of the NLL if they are for east coast
          destinations or require electric traction.

70
space per wagon as against the standard                Barking – proposals to develop a site
60’). As the bigger boxes grow in number this          adjacent to HS1 which could receive freight
becomes an increasingly inef cient option for          trains composed of Continental-sized
competitive rail operation.                            wagons directly from Europe via the new
                                                       line, which opened in late 2007. Traf c
4.3.11
                                                       over the link will be dependent on charges
The solution is to invest in structural clearance
                                                       via the tunnel relative to other routes,
of selected key routes to achieve W10
                                                       however, the overall market is assessed at
loading gauge which permits ‘high cubes’ on
                                                       around 80 million tonnes per year (source:
standard 60’ wagons. The only W10 route
                                                       Intermodality report for EWS).
at present which serves ports in the route is
the GEML via London. Improvements will be              Stowmarket, Kings Dyke – new rail linked
required if the market is not to be restricted.        distribution sites.
An alternative route across London is required
                                                    These proposals are at an early stage and
(using an upgraded Gospel Oak – Barking
                                                    none has yet progressed to the point where a
route), and funding for this work through the
                                                     rm rail demand exists.
TIF was announced in July 2007.
                                                    Other trainload freight
4.3.12
To avoid London, the cross country route            4.3.14
from Ipswich to Nuneaton (via Peterborough)         Within this commodity group freight train
is a priority for gauge enhancement. There          operators believe there are prospects for
is also a short term need for an alternative        growth on rail as follows;
W10 route around the GE in view of the level           Automotive – increasing movements
of blockades likely to be required for the             through ports.
construction of the Olympic Park in the run up
                                                       Waste – possibility for additional ows on
to 2012, the West Anglia route being favoured.
                                                       rail as disposal pressures grow.
These schemes are being developed as
follows;                                            These prospects cannot be translated into
                                                    de nite rail demand yet.
   Cross country route to Peterborough
   (planned for completion in April 2008)           Specialist freight business
   – funding through HPUK Section 106
                                                    4.3.15
   commitment.
                                                    Nuclear traf c from the existing power
   West Anglia temporary clearance for the          stations will decline over the long term as they
   works required for The Games – NRDF              approach the decommissioning phase of their
   scheme.                                          lives. However, current government plans for
                                                    a new generation of nuclear stations is likely
   Gauge enhancement of the Peterborough
                                                    to lead to continued and increasing traf c over
   – Nuneaton route is being taken forward
                                                    the coming years (depending on the sites
   under the TIF programme announced in
                                                    selected for development).
   July 2007.

General merchandise

4.3.13
Expressions of interest by developers in sites
which might create new general merchandise
rail business are as follows;




                                                                                                       71
     4.4 Transport proposals and                        In terms of access to the network ‘one’
     enhancement aspirations                            railway will be continuing with the
                                                        improvement to car parks and have been
     4.4.1
                                                        involved in the development of new stations,
     The TOCs and FOCs, who are principal users
                                                        such as those proposed at Great Blakenham
     and key stakeholders on the routes covered by
                                                        and to the north east of Chelmsford.
     the GA RUS, have the following aspirations:
                                                        First Capital Connect
        c2c
                                                        FCC is planning the operation of longer
        c2c wishes to continue to operate one of
                                                        trains. These are being delivered as a result
        the best performing routes in the country.
                                                        of the GN capacity study carried out for DfT
        In terms of passenger growth and market
                                                        and this will result in longer trains on the
        needs they wish to see the following:
                                                        Cambridge and Peterborough services.
        improved capacity and performance on
        services via Ockendon; more trains calling      CrossCountry and East Midlands Trains
        at West Ham for interchange to Docklands;       The routes formally operated by Central
        improved service running at weekends;           Trains have recently been re-franchised
        and trains lengthened to meet demand.           and the operators are keen to develop
        They also wish linespeeds to be improved        the Midlands – Anglia markets, with
        between Barking and Upminster.                  proposals for the operation of longer
                                                        trains to relieve overcrowding on the
        ‘one’ railway
                                                        services running through to Stansted
        ‘one’ railway has aspirations to meet
                                                        Airport and the possible requirement for
        growth on both the WA and GE routes.
                                                        longer hours of operation on the route.
        Their aspirations on the WA route include:
                                                        The original franchise has been split with
        train lengthening on the Chingford, En eld
                                                        the Stansted Airport – Birmingham service
        Town, Hertford East, Stansted Airport
                                                        being operated by CrossCountry and the
        and Cambridge services, as well as
                                                        Liverpool – Norwich service operated by
        improvements in the Lea Valley to facilitate
                                                        East Midlands Trains.
        both improved access to Stratford and
        improved performance and capacity. On           Freight operators
        the GE route they are keen to see more          Freight operators are keen to ensure that
        trains/improved peak capacity through           adequate capacity exists to meet forecast
        the operation of more trains on all service     growth (as described in the Freight RUS),
        groups, as well as a better service to          especially for aggregate and intermodal
        Stratford from main line destinations.          traf c, particularly deep sea containers.
                                                        Intermodal traf c from the ports to the
        ‘one’ railway also wishes to see
                                                        ECML/WCML routes will require W10
        performance on the routes improved
                                                        gauge clearance, incremental train
        through the ‘Challenge 90’ initiative (to
                                                        lengthening, improved capacity and better
        achieve a PPM of at least 90 percent),
                                                        engineering access arrangements. The
        as well as local enhancements to
                                                        freight operators also wish to ensure that
        infrastructure. These include enhancements
                                                        the Rules of the Plan are robust and that
        such as improved turnback facilities, as well
                                                        trains can operate without the need for
        as replacement of the poorly performing
                                                        speed or weight restrictions. The operators
        sections of the OLE. Reduced overnight
                                                        wish to see wider use of the Class 92
        and weekend engineering access is also
                                                        locomotives and double heading on freight
        being sought on certain routes, in particular
                                                        services which operate over sections of
        to Stansted, where additional services are
                                                        these routes (including the Thameside and
        being introduced.




72
GEML routes). Access to the Thameside              Stratford. TfL seeks to operate these as
route for electric traction would be               at least 8-car trains in the peak. They also
enhanced if the Gospel Oak – Barking               wish services to operate over the same
route were electri ed.                             service hours as the Underground. The
                                                   2025 plans are also designed to build on
EWS has developed the concept of the
                                                   the capacity/opportunities provided by
“Big Freight Railway”. The purpose being
                                                   Crossrail. TfL is also keen to see freight
to maximise the use of each path on the
                                                   traf c destined for the capital switched
network. The key is trains which are longer,
                                                   from road to rail and also to see traf c
heavier and bigger (both in width and
                                                   which transits London diverted away from
height). A network is required to allow this
                                                   the city where possible.
to be delivered.
                                                   Passenger Focus
Freight operators also wish to operate
                                                   Passenger Focus is the independent
intermodal traf c for at least 6 days per
                                                   National Rail consumer watchdog: its
week and seek assurances that reliable
                                                   mission is to get the best deal for Britain’s
paths will be available round engineering
                                                   rail passengers. Passenger Focus is keen
work without detriment to forecast capacity.
                                                   that a) the current need for passengers
The operators also have concerns over the
                                                   to stand for in excess of 20 minutes is
impact of Crossrail and seek assurances
                                                   eliminated; and b) that there is suf cient
that its impacts have been allowed for in
                                                   capacity on all routes to meet demand to
the plans contained in the RUS (this is
                                                   2016/17. Passenger Focus stresses that
discussed later in the document).
                                                   getting to the station is integral to travelling
BAA                                                by train, with capacity to park cars a key
In line with the 2003 Air Transport White          area to address.
Paper and subsequent Progress Report,
                                                4.4.2
BAA is developing plans for increased
                                                In terms of the wider stakeholders, the
capacity at Stansted Airport. The rst stage
                                                aspirations of the East of England Regional
is known as Generation 1 (G1) and seeks
                                                Assembly, the County Councils and London
to make better use of the existing runway
                                                Boroughs are brie y listed below, their
(capacity around 35 million passengers
                                                plans being taken from the Regional Spatial
per annum (mppa)). This application has
                                                Strategy/Regional Transport Strategy, Local
been considered through a Public Inquiry
                                                Transport Plans and Local Implementation
and a decision is due in early 2008. The
                                                Plans:
second stage is known as Generation 2
(G2) and seeks to deliver a second runway          East of England Regional Assembly
and capacity increase to around 68 mppa.           In its Regional Transport Strategy the
In line with these aspirations, BAA has            Assembly are seeking to promote the
developed a multi-modal Surface Access             following: the implementation of major
Strategy which was subject to extensive            projects, including Thameslink, Crossrail
consultation during 2007, which inter alia         and access to Stansted; improvements
identi ed the need for extra rail capacity on      to the cross country and inter-regional
the WAML.                                          routes, as well as the key radial lines; and
                                                   enhancement of the cross country freight
TfL
                                                   routes to improve access to the region’s
TfL in preparing its Rail Corridor Plan
                                                   main ports.
(RCP) and 2025 Vision wish to promote a
4 tph all day service on all the key radial
routes, as well as increased services via




                                                                                                      73
     Norfolk County Council                               The London Boroughs
     Norfolk seeks improvements to the radial,            The boroughs’ aspirations cover improved
     rural and east – west rail routes. It is also        access to the network with extra
     keen to see improved market share for rail           interchange stations, as well as improved
     freight and development of access to the             station security. They are keen to promote
     passenger network through improved car               rail freight but almost all advocate a freight
     parking, interchange, DDA and continued              bypass for London.
     promotion of the County’s successful
     Community Rail Partnerships, as well as           4.5 Regional/Local Funding
     potential improvements in service frequency       4.5.1
     on the routes linking into Norwich.               There a number of mechanisms for funding

     Suffolk County Council                            schemes identi ed within the RUS, and these

     Suffolk seeks improved rail freight through       are brie y described below:

     completion of the Felixstowe – Nuneaton              Department for Transport
     route, improved services on the Ipswich              The DfT, as procurer and speci er of
     – Peterborough and East Suffolk lines,               passenger rail franchises, has the ability
     together with improved interchange at                to fund major enhancements directly. It
     stations such as Ipswich and Lowestoft.              also has other funding mechanisms and
     The County also wishes to see new                    these include: the TIF for the promotion of
     stations provided at Moreton Hall and Great          schemes, which enhance regional/national
     Blakenham to serve local developments.               productivity or that relieve congestion,

     Cambridgeshire County Council                        together with the HLOS, in which the DfT

     The Council is concentrating on improved             decides what increased outputs it wishes to

     access to Cambridge through construction             buy from the rail industry.

     of Chesterton station to act as a parkway            Network Rail
     for access to the city (this project is subject      Network Rail has the Network Rail
     to a TIF (congestion) bid). The Council is           Discretionary Fund for relatively minor
     also keen to see the cross country freight           schemes that improve capacity/performance
     route upgraded to provide relief to the              (This programme is subject to DfT funding
     county’s major roads.                                and ORR scrutiny of business cases).

     Essex County Council                                 Transport for London (TfL)
     Essex seeks improved access to stations,             While TfL is not generally responsible for
     especially DDA, car parks, interchange and           the funding of National Rail services other
     station facilities. It is also keen to ensure        than the London Overground network
     that capacity on the radial routes expands           (the former Silverlink services which
     in line with growth and that new stations            commenced in November 2007), it seeks
     are provided north-east of Chelmsford and            to work closely with DfT and TOCs to help
     to serve Essex University. Improvements              ensure that they meet the needs of London.
     are also sought to the Braintree, Sudbury            The Mayor of London’s Transport Strategy
     and Clacton branches.                                therefore seeks to better integrate National

     Hertfordshire County Council                         Rail’s provision with that of other transport

     The County wishes to see improved east               providers and to raise the standards

     – west rail links to and from the region,            of National Rail services and facilities

     as well as the development of its main               in London. To this end, TfL has funded

     interchanges, together with good links to            station access and passenger security

     Stansted and Stratford.                              programmes and has now assumed
                                                          responsibility for the North London Line




74
franchise, which has recently been let to           Planning Conditions/Section 106
MTR Laing Rail. In addition it is funding        Agreements
the East London Line Extension scheme            In order to ensure that the transport
and is also promoting the development of         system can cope with the additional trips
the radial suburban routes through its Rail      generated by development, the Planning
Corridor Plans and 2025 Vision.                  Authority can impose a planning condition
                                                 on the granting of planning permission.
London Boroughs’ Local
                                                 It is more likely, however, that in the
Implementation Plans and Borough
                                                 case of large scale developments, the
Spending Plans
                                                 Planning Authority negotiates a Section
TfL is also responsible for allocating
                                                 106 agreement with the proposer whereby
the government’s annual Transport
                                                 money is made available for improvements
Settlement, in respect of London, to
                                                 to the transport system. Whilst this will
the London Boroughs. This is the main
                                                 lead to the funding of additional stations
source of London Borough funding for
                                                 on the Network (capacity permitting) and
capital expenditure on transport. London
                                                 a contribution to improvements such as
Boroughs present an annual bid to TfL for
                                                 those on the West Anglia route (required
such funding via their Borough Spending
                                                 to meet the needs of regional growth
Plans. These in turn must be in line with
                                                 and Stansted), a more radical pooling
the Borough’s Local Implementation
                                                 of developers’ 106 monies may be
Plan, a statement of how the borough is
                                                 required if the there is a gap in funding the
going to implement the Mayor of London’s
                                                 enhancements necessary to meet regional
Transport Strategy at local level. To date
                                                 growth. This may be forthcoming via the
most borough expenditure related to
                                                 ‘Roof Tax’ proposed under the Planning
National Rail has been related to improving
                                                 Bill. This Bill also includes some freedom
access to, the physical approach to, and
                                                 for local authorities to set up local road
the local environment of stations.
                                                 pricing schemes, which could also fund
Local authorities’ Local Transport Plans         public transport improvements.
These programmes are submitted to the
                                                 The Transport Plan for the London 2012
DfT for funding and generally cover smaller
                                                 Olympic Games and Paralympic Games
rail schemes, including improved station
                                                 In the context of this RUS, the access to
facilities and interchange.
                                                 Stratford from the West Anglia, GE outer,
Following the Lyons review of local authority    E lines and c2c routes has an important
funding, it is possible that local authorities   role to play in the Transport Plan for The
may be given wider borrowing/tax raising         Games. Network Rail is working with the
powers to fund larger infrastructure             Olympic Delivery Authority to help deliver
projects. With such strong growth in the         the infrastructure enhancements needed
east of England requiring a step change          to handle the passenger traf c generated
in infrastructure, this may be one route for     by the Games. The enhancements will
delivering the required funding.                 provide a legacy of improved services to
                                                 Stratford and Docklands.




                                                                                                 75
     4.6 Summary of gaps identi ed
     4.6.1
     The following gaps have been identi ed in
     this chapter:

     1) Strong growth is predicted in the region
        through the coming years, with a growing
        need for increased commuting to meet the
        needs of London.

     2) Strong regional growth also leads to a
        requirement for improved local services
        between regional centres.

     3) There is a need to ensure that peak
        crowding is dealt with and does not worsen
        as demand rises.

     4) The growth of Docklands and the
        development of East and North East
        London leads to a requirement for
        improved access to Stratford and
        interchange for Docklands.

     5) Mayoral objectives to achieve a four train-
        per-hour “metro-style” frequency on the
        suburban radial routes, including extended
        service hours to match those of LUL.

     6) Strong growth in intermodal traf c leads
        to a requirement for increased capacity
        and enhanced gauge on the cross county
        route and the Gospel Oak – Barking
        – Willesden line (electri cation of the latter
        would enhance the routing opportunities for
        electrically hauled freight from Thameside).




76
77
     5. Forecast of change –
     predicted demand increases

         5.1 Introduction                                      less than would actually be expected to happen

         5.1.1                                                 as capacity is matched to demand through

         In this chapter the demand forecasts for              changes to the timetable over time.

         changes in passenger and freight demand               5.2.3
         to 2016 and 2021 that were prepared for the           The forecasts also take no account of predicted
         RUS Draft for Consultation are re-presented.          improvements in train performance. By the end
         Passenger demand forecasts have been made             of CP4 the industry is targeted with increasing
         by Atkins Transport Planning for morning peak         PPM to 93 percent for London and South East
         passenger ows into and out of London using            TOCs’ train services. This may drive passenger
         the PLANET South AM demand model. The                 demand up to ve percent higher across the
         RIFF Lite model to estimate changes in                region and may be even higher in some areas
         demand on non-London passenger ows has                – such as on the GE route – where there are
         been used. Freight forecasts in the RUS area          speci c measures planned (early replacement
         draw on speci c market information for short          of OLE) to improve performance on the route.
         term predictions, the 2014/15 demand forecasts
                                                               Methodology
         from the Freight RUS and information from the
         port planning inquiries for longer term estimates     5.2.4
         of inter-modal freight demand.                        The passenger demand forecasts are driven by
                                                               a number of underlying planning assumptions.
         5.2 Passenger demand                                  The key sources of these data are shown in
         London                                                Table 5.1.

         5.2.1                                                 5.2.5
         The passenger demand forecasts presented              The base year in the PLANET South AM model
         in this chapter are contrived with the purpose        is 2002. The forecasting process was: rst, to
         of providing a base against which to compare          predict a base year – in this case 2004/05 – and
         proposed service changes in the RUS options           to calibrate that base prediction to observed
         and the nal recommended strategy. In                  ticket sales, survey and passenger count data;
         Chapter 9 the predicted out-turn of demand            and second, to make future year forecasts
         that is anticipated if the RUS strategy is            based on the underlying assumptions from the
         followed is presented.                                base year (which is itself a modelled outcome).
                                                               PLANET South AM makes these predictions
         5.2.2
                                                               for morning peak passenger ows around
         The predictions are made assuming that only
                                                               London. The model also predicts passengers’
         committed service changes occur between the
                                                               responses to crowding as a constraint on
         modelled base year (2004/05) and the forecast
                                                               demand which results (for demand increases)
         years (2016 and 2021). In particular, the forecasts
                                                               in a combination of passengers enduring more
         assume that the December 2005 timetable
                                                               crowded conditions, trip suppression (or use of
         remains in operation throughout the period. The
                                                               other modes), and switching between alternative
         result being that the changes predicted are much
                                                               heavy rail or London Underground routes.




78
    Table 5.1: Drivers of passenger demand and planning data sources

    Demand Driver                                                     Source of Planning Assumption

    Population and employment forecasts                               Tempro version 4.3 policy data (03/08/2005) for the
                                                                      South East and trend based data (09/05/2002) for
                                                                      the rest of the country1
    Consumer response elasticities                                    PDFH v4.1
    Fares Growth                                                      RPI+1%
    Gross Value Added                                                 Cambridge Econometrics
    Fuel Cost                                                         Tempro guidance
    Car Availability                                                  Tempro v4.3
    Car journey time                                                  PLANET Strategic Highway Model
    Stansted Airport Rail Access                                      Passenger demand forecast overlay provided by
                                                                      BAA; sensitivity overlay provided by DfT
    Service Changes                                                   Do-minimum timetable (December 2005)
    Committed Schemes                                                 London Underground PPP schemes
                                                                      Integrated Kent Franchise
                                                                      East London Line
                                                                      Docklands Light Railway extended to Woolwich
                                                                      Arsenal and Stratford International
                                                                      North London Lines capacity works at Stratford



Passenger demand forecasts                                      percent, for 2016 and 2021 respectively.3 The
                                                                constraint bites hardest on the GE forecast
5.2.6
                                                                in the model: the unconstrained do-minimum
The estimated rates of change in passenger
                                                                forecast is for about twice as large an increase
demand for each route are shown in Table
                                                                in peak passenger numbers to occur, i.e. the
5.2 and the base and future levels of demand
                                                                model predicts that about half of potential
for each route are shown in Figure 5.1.
                                                                growth on the GE will be crowded off unless
These rates of increase are constrained by
                                                                more capacity is provided.
crowding in the do-minimum forecast.2 The
unconstrained forecasts are much higher: the
weighted averages being 23 percent and 28



1    These data were supplied by Faber Maunsell and are the same as those used for the demand forecasting work that they did for BAA
     supporting its consultation paper from February 2007. These data are augmented with data from the Draft East of England Plan and the
     London Plan.

2 The do-minimum scenario is a future year (2016 or 2021) scenario with the current network and train service provision plus any committed
  changes. These are known changes which are de ned for the RUS.
3 The constrained and unconstrained forecasts are both made from the same base level of patronage, which is itself constrained by current
  crowding. Constrained demand assumes that no additional capacity is added in future years (other than do-minimum changes) and
  unconstrained demand assumes that capacity is added to ensure that crowding is no worse than current levels as demand rises.




                                                                                                                                             79
      Table 5.2: Predicted Changes in Passenger Journeys

      Route                                   2016                                     2021

      Thameside                               15%                                      17%
      Great Eastern                           8%                                       9%
      West Anglia                             37%                                      42%
      Weighted Average                        17%                                      19%
     Source: Planet South AM outputs, Atkins




         Figure 5.1: Base and Future Modelled Levels of Demand
         (am peak journeys to London; Do-minimum)

          Key

                       2004                          2021
                       2016                          Supressed Journeys by 2021




          80000


          70000


          60000


          50000


          40000


          30000


          20000


          10000


                0
                               Thameside                       Great Eastern                     West Anglia



     Source: PLANET South AM Peak, Atkins


                    5.2.7                                                  Southbury Loop and Seven Sisters on the
                    There is considerable variation in the                 West Anglia route, due to increasing air
                    predictions of changes in passenger journeys           passenger demand and regional housing
                    towards London across routes and between               growth. The increases in passenger numbers
                    service groups within routes. Especially               at the service group level predicted in the
                    large proportionate increases are predicted            model are shown in Figure 5.2.
                    for Stansted Express and services via the




80
    Figure 5.2: Base and Future Modelled Demand by Service Group
    (am peak journeys to London; Do-minimum)

        Key

                  Modelled Base Demand                           Predicted Crowding Off
                  2016 Passenger Forecast                        2021 Passenger Forecast



        40000

        35000

        30000

        25000

        20000

        15000

        10000

         5000

              0
                                                     GE Outers




                                                                  GE Inners




                                                                                  GE Southend




                                                                                                                                                                    Hertford East
                     Thameside




                                 Anglia Inter City




                                                                                                 Chingford




                                                                                                             Stansted Express




                                                                                                                                Enfield/Cheshunt




                                                                                                                                                   Cambridge
Source: PLANET South AM outputs, Atkins

5.2.8                                                                           5.2.9
The predicted increases in passenger journeys                                   The predicted daily levels of crowding-off for
are constrained by crowding on trains.                                          passengers in the morning peak are shown
Atkins analysis shows that demand would be                                      in Table 5.3 for each of the routes. These are
considerably higher if capacity were increased                                  PLANET estimates which are determined
in line with demand. Around 10,000 morning                                      within the model by the estimated passenger
peak trips into London a day are predicted to                                   demand and load factors in the forecast year.
be crowded off the network by 2021 in the do-
minimum scenario.


 Table 5.3: Estimated Crowding Off of Passengers
 AM Peak; Up Direction; Do-minimum

 Route                                                                        Trips Crowded Off
                                                                              (Do-minimum; AM Peak; Up Direction)

                                                                                                2016                                                            2021
 Thameside                                                                                        800                                                           1,500
 Great Eastern                                                                                  3,800                                                           4,500
 West Anglia                                                                                    2,900                                                           4,000
 Total                                                                                          7,500                                                          10,000
Source: PLANET South AM outputs, Atkins


                                                                                                                                                                                    81
                    Crowding                                                      travel at different times to avoid the worsened
                                                                                  crowding. Crowding can also be mitigated to
                    5.2.10
                                                                                  some extent by changing the calling patterns
                    It is not straightforward to say how crowding
                                                                                  of trains. As a simpli cation the impact of
                    might alter passengers’ travel behaviour. It
                                                                                  uniform increases in train loads for each route
                    would be expected that some people would
                                                                                  is presented in Table 5.4.



      Table 5.4: Predicted Crowding on Passenger Services
      AM Peak; UP Direction; Do-minimum

                                       Thameside                        Great Eastern                    West Anglia

      Passengers standing in overcrowded conditions
      Number of people a day in Up direction
      Percentage of total in parentheses
      2004 (Actual)                               1,600 (6%)                       3,400 (6%)                           1,500 (6%)
      2016 (Forecast)                             5,600 (18%)                      6,300 (10%)                          8,900 (25%)
      2021 (Forecast)                             5,900 (18%)                      6,500 (10%)                        10,300 (27%)
      Trains over PIXC Capacity
      Number of trains in Up direction
      Percentage of total in parentheses
      2004 (Actual)                                    9 (20%)                         17 (20%)                              6 (10%)
      2016 (Forecast)                                 23 (50%)                         29 (35%)                             33 (52%)
      2021 (Forecast)                                 23 (50%)                         30 (36%)                             37 (59%)
     Source: Network Rail Analysis of PLANET South AM Outputs and passenger count data.
     Note: “crowded conditions” are de ned as being reached when passenger are standing on trains which have exceeded their standing
     allowance for PIXC measurement.


                    5.2.11                                                        would change the time at which they travel. The
                    Base year (Autumn 2004) and predicted PIXC                    impact of this peak spreading is that the results
                    are shown in Table 5.5 at the service group                   in Table 5.4 are conservative: it is expected that
                    level. Again, it is assumed that passengers                   more trains will be over their PIXC capacity than
                    travel at the same time as they do in the base                are estimated in the analysis for the forecast
                    year though it is expected that some people                   years on all routes in the do-minimum scenario.




82
    Table 5.5: Predicted Percentage PIXC
    AM Peak; UP Direction; Do-minimum

                                                           2004                            2016                           2021
                                                           (Actual)                        (Estimate)                     (Estimate)

    Thameside                                              2%                              7%                              8%

    Great Eastern Inner                                    4%                              5%                              6%

    Great Eastern Outer (including                         3%                              7%                              7%
    Anglia Inter-City)
    Great Eastern Southend                                     -                              -                            1%

    West Anglia Inner                                      1%                             12%                            13%

    West Anglia Outer (including                           3%                             15%                            19%
    Stansted Express)
Source: Network Rail analysis of 2004/05 peak counts, Department for Transport and PSAM Outputs.

5.2.12                                                             Time Spent Standing
The predicted changes in the levels of
                                                                   5.2.13
crowding and the number of over-crowded
                                                                   It is not possible to tell how long passengers
trains (de ned in terms of PIXC capacity)
                                                                   have stood for from the PIXC count data.
show that the proportions of passengers
                                                                   Examination of the modelled load factors
travelling in crowded conditions are very
                                                                   indicates for how long passengers have to
similar across the three routes in the base
                                                                   stand. It is known that some passengers,
year though a smaller proportion of trains
                                                                   typically, have to stand on trains where
are over PIXC limits on West Anglia than on
                                                                   average load factors at the terminal or
the other routes. This indicates that crowding
                                                                   measuring point breach 70 percent over
affects more passengers on each train on
                                                                   three hours. This infers that where average
West Anglia than it does on Great Eastern or
                                                                   modelled load factors reach 70 percent along
the Thameside route.1
                                                                   the route passengers have to stand on some
                                                                   trains. Estimates of the station at which
                                                                   standing starts and typical journey times from
                                                                   those stations to the maximum loading stop
                                                                   are shown in Table 5.6 for each of the outer
                                                                   service groups.




4    This comes about because the allowance for standing passengers within PIXC capacity on (some variants of) the Class 317 rolling stock
     used on the West Anglia route is a much higher proportion of seated passengers than it is on Great Eastern or Thameside rolling stock.
     About a third of services on the GE Outers and all of the Anglia Inter-City services allow no standing within the PIXC capacity.


                                                                                                                                              83
         Table 5.6: Estimates of Time Spent Standing
         AM Peak; UP Direction; Do-minimum

                                          2004                                2016                         2021

         Thameside                        Basildon – Ben eet                  Basildon – Ben eet           Southend
                                          (27 - 40 minutes)                   (27 - 40 minutes)            (52 minutes)

         GE Outer                         Chelmsford                          Witham                       Witham
                                          (28 minutes)                        (37 minutes)                 (37 minutes)

         GE Southend                      Shen eld – Billericay               Wickford                     Wickford
                                          (14 - 23 minutes)                   (30 minutes)                 (30 minutes)

         Anglia Inter-City                Colchester                          Ipswich                      Ipswich
                                          (57 minutes)                        (76 minutes)                 (76 minutes)

         West Anglia Outer                Cheshunt/Broxbourne                 Harlow/                      Bishops Stortford/
         including Stansted               (8 - 13 minutes)                    Bishops Stortford            Stansted Airport
         Express                                                              (21 - 32 minutes)            (32 - 34 minutes)
     Source: Network Rail estimates


                      5.2.14                                                              Regional Demand Forecast
                      Actual train load data have been obtained along
                                                                                          5.2.15
                      the Thameside and WAML routes. These data
                                                                                          PLANET South models services that arrive
                      (presented in Chapter 3) were provided by c2c
                                                                                          and depart London termini between 07:00 and
                      from its train load weighing equipment and
                                                                                          10:00. The regional demand forecasts have
                      gathered, on West Anglia, during consultation.5
                                                                                          been modelled using Rail Industry Forecasting
                      These show that standing starts at Ben eet on
                                                                                          Framework ‘RIFF Lite’ model. This model has
                      c2c and at Bishops Stortford on West Anglia.
                                                                                          been used to make unconstrained passenger
                      This suggests that the estimates in Table 5.6 are
                                                                                          demand forecasts for non-London ows in the
                      conservative, though passenger numbers have
                                                                                          GA RUS area. Demand forecasts have been
                      increased sharply since 2004/05 on both routes.
                                                                                          made for journeys to and journeys from the
                                                                                           ve demand zones shown below in Figure 5.3.




     5    ‘one’ railway is not able to provide equivalent data for the GE and WA routes




84
The non-London demand forecasts are shown                                    This table forecasts growth levels of around
in Table 5.7. Table 5.7 shows the number                                     20 percent on rural services, meaning that
of trips recorded in the RIFF Lite model in                                  peak trains around the regional centres,
2005/06 and the ten year forecast rates of                                   which currently experience loads of 100 – 150
increase for non-London journeys that start                                  passengers, will need to accommodate an
and end in each of the zones.                                                additional 20 – 30 people per train.




    Figure 5.3: Regional Demand Forecasting Zones
      Key

                                                                                                                                  Cromer
                Zone A - Peterborough to March                    Zone D - Anglia (Shorter)                    Sheringham

                Zone B - West Anglia                              Zone E - c2c
                Zone C - Anglia (Longer)

                                                                                                                                              Great
                                   KINGS LYNN                                                                                                Yarmouth
                                                                                                      NORWICH


                                        Middleton Towers




                                                                                                                                           Lowestoft

                                                       Thetford                                                     Diss
     Peterborough Whitemoor
                     Yard

                   March



                             ELY                                                                                                               Sizewell




                                                                            Bury St Edmunds
                                                                                                                                                Felixstowe
                                    CAMBRIDGE
                                                                                                                           IPSWICH




                                                                                                                                   Harwich
                                       STANSTED                                                                                 Parkeston Quay
            Letchworth
                                       AIRPORT                                            Sudbury
                                                                                                         Manningtree
                                                                                                                                               Harwich
                                                                                                                                                Town
                                                                                                                           COLCHESTER
             Hertford East         BISHOPS STORTFORD                          Braintree

                                                                                                                                                  Walton-on-
                                    Harlow Mill                                                                    Colchester                     the-Naze
                                                                                                                     Town
                                   Harlow Town                                                                 Marks
                                                                                                               Tey                           Clacton
               Enfield Town        Broxbourne
                                                                                                      Witham

                                                                                 Chelmsford
                                           Chingford

                                   Tottenham                             Shenfield                                              Southminster
                     Seven         Hale      Walthamstow
                     Sisters                 Central
                                                              Romford

          LONDON
      LIVERPOOL STREET

                                                                                                                                 Southend Victoria
                                    Stratford                           Barking      Upminister       Pitsea
                                                                                                                                                  Shoeburyness
                                                                                           Basildon                        Southend
                                                                                                                            Central
               LONDON
                                                                                                         Thames Haven
            FENCHURCH STREET
                                                                                      Grays
                                                                                                      Tilbury Freight
                                                                                                      Container Terminal




                                                                                                                                                                 85
         Table 5.7: Non-London Demand Forecasts
         (Annual Trips, Greater Anglia RUS Zones Outside London)

                                       non-London Trips from Zone                           non-London Trips to Zone

                                       Number of Trips,           Forecast Change           Number of Trips,     Forecast Change
                                       million (2005)             (Ten Years)               million (2005)       (Ten Years)
         Zone A
         Peterborough                            3.3                    19.5%                          3.1             16.7%
         – March
         Zone B
                                                 5.2                    22.9%                          5.7             20.5%
         West Anglia
         Zone C
                                                 3.6                    19.5%                          3.6             19.0%
         Anglia (Longer)
         Zone D
                                                 6.0                    17.2%                          5.1             16.9%
         Anglia (Shorter)
         Zone E
                                                 2.9                    17.1%                          3.5             17.3%
         c2c
         Total                                  20.9                    19.3%                        21.0              18.3%

     Source: RIFF Lite Demand Forecasts prepared by Network Rail



                      As with the forecasts of passenger demand                      5.2.17
                      on services to London, these forecasts are                     A second (higher) demand forecast for
                      contrived to estimate a do-minimum scenario.                   Stansted Airport rail passengers was provided
                      With the matching of services to passenger                     by the Department for Transport. This forecast
                      needs and enhancements a higher out-turn                       was produced by DfT to re ect its view at
                      of passenger use of the railway would be                       the time that the mix of air passengers at
                      anticipated than is shown in the table. Similarly              Stansted Airport will be different from that
                      to the PLANET forecasts for London, the impact                 predicted by BAA; and particularly that there
                      of improved train performance on passenger                     will be more business travel from Stansted
                      demand is not considered in the forecast.                      Airport than BAA predicts.6 This would, in turn,
                                                                                     result in more air passengers travelling to the
                      Demand sensitivities
                                                                                     airport at peak times by rail. Both demand
                      Stansted Airport                                               predictions are shown in Table 5.8. Before
                      5.2.16                                                         consultation options for West Anglia Outer-
                      The level of unconstrained rail passenger                      Suburban services were assessed under both
                      demand at Stansted Airport outlined above                      scenarios. In assessing the value for money of
                      has been overlaid into the future year demand                  the proposed strategy (in Chapter 9) the more
                      matrix. In the data reported in this chapter                   conservative scenario predicted by BAA has
                      demand forecasts produced by BAA for its                       been used.
                      February 2007 consultation have been used.
                      These predictions were made using their
                      surface access strategy modelling suite.




     6    Both BAA and DfT have revised their forecasts since these baseline forecasts were made for this RUS.




86
 Table 5.8: Constrained Demand Forecast – Stansted Airport Borders
 AM Peak; Up Direction

                                                   2016                                    2021

 BAA                                               2,167                                   2,663
 DfT                                               2,490                                   2,856
 Difference                                           323 (15%)                                 193 (7%)
Source: PLANET South AM outputs, Atkins



5.2.18                                            change in population (relative to the average)
The modelled impact of the higher levels of       for each area linked to stations in the model
demand at Stansted Airport predicted by the       and the trip rate in the catchment area for
Department for Transport in the alternative       each station.
do-minimum forecast is that demand along the
                                                  5.2.20
West Anglia route shifts to the services from
                                                  The change in population – relative to the
Cambridge and – further down the route – to
                                                  average for London, the South East and
the Inner services on the WAML (from Hertford
                                                  East – for each of the arterial routes into
East or Broxbourne). The implication being
                                                  London is shown in Table 5.9 for the RUS
that more capacity would be needed on the
                                                  planning assumptions and the newer ones
route to handle demand and that the value for
                                                  in Tempro v5.3. As an example, the table
money of increasing passenger capacity would
                                                  shows that (if all other variables were equal)
be greater.
                                                  on the Great Eastern route the newer Tempro
Tempro v5.3 population forecasts                  forecasts would have resulted in an increase
                                                  in passenger demand of six per cent more
5.2.19
                                                  than has been predicted in the RUS in 2016,
Since Atkins completed their demand
                                                  i.e. less than 0.5 percent difference in the
forecasting work new Tempro (version 5.3)
                                                  predicted future passenger volume. In the case
forecasts of population have been made
                                                  of the Great Eastern and West Anglia routes
available. Consideration has been given
                                                  our analysis shows that there would be very
to how much difference these would have
                                                  little difference in the demand forecasts had the
made to the demand forecasts had they been
                                                  alternative Tempro v5.3 data been available.
available at the time. The change in population
                                                  Certainly, for those two routes the differences
relative to the average in London, the East
                                                  would have been, in aggregate on each route,
and South East of England is a key driver of
                                                  within the margin of forecasting error. However,
passenger demand predictions in the RUS.
                                                  the impact on the Thameside route would be
For given changes in other key variables – e.g.
                                                  that the rate of increase in passenger numbers
central London employment – changes in the
                                                  would be about twice that predicted by the
population level drive unconstrained commuter
                                                  model in the do-minimum scenario.
demand for rail travel in the modelling
framework. The impact is determined by the




                                                                                                           87
      Table 5.9: Predicted Changes in Population
      (Relative to London, South East and East Average)

                              2016                                           2021

                              GA RUS                  Tempro v5.3            GA RUS                  Tempro v5.3
      Thameside               -50%                    +1%                    -47%                    +3%
      Great Eastern           -                       +6%                    +13%                    +5%
      West Anglia             +69%                    +66%                   +65%                    +61%
     Source: Network Rail Analysis


                  5.2.21                                                been examined (by location and commodity)
                  There would also be some differences                  and the results are tabulated in the appendix.
                  because of changes to predicted trip origin           More recent data taken in May/July 2007
                  on all lines. This particularly affects the West      for the total number of freight services
                  Anglia route. The more recent planning data           planned/operated is also included in
                  suggests that there would be greater increases        Appendix E and shows an increase in paths
                  in population further out from London and less        on the GE and a reduction via the cross
                  closer in. The impact of these assumptions            country route, partially due to the rise in
                  being that slightly greater increases in demand       container traf c on the GE and partially to
                  for West Anglia Outers and slightly lower             the fact that in Summer 2004 services were
                  increases in passenger trips on inner services        diverted cross country during the Ipswich tunnel
                  would be expected but that in aggregate the           blockade. The summary of base year paths
                  increase in passenger numbers would be                used, paths planned and growth requirements
                  similar. The actual increases in the number           are given in Table 5.10 (all gures are paths per
                  of trips will depend largely on where the             day each way and are based on an analysis of
                  proposed housing increases are actually               Thursdays as this is generally the busiest day of
                  located in the East of England and future trip        the week). The future growth gures are shown
                  rates generated from this new housing. Those          for both 2014/15 based on the gures from
                  rates will also depend on the housing type and        the Freight RUS (FRUS) and 2023 using the
                  precise location of it (e.g. proximity to stations,   Freight RUS gures for all commodities (except
                  etc.) which, in turn, will depend on future           intermodal) proportioned up over a further 9
                  planning policy.                                      years. Unlike most commodities, forecasts
                                                                        exist for intermodal traf c from the ports up
                  5.3 Freight demand                                    to 2023 and thus the 2023 gures are based
                  5.3.1                                                 on the planning inquiry numbers discussed in
                  Chapter 4 concluded that there was scope              Chapter 4. The only other differences between
                  for growth in intermodal (especially deep sea)        the 2014/15 and 2023 requirements being that
                  and construction traf c. In order to look at          a degree to which some of the freight growth
                  the options for delivering freight growth, it is      has been assumed to be accommodated on
                  necessary to assess the current path use and          the cross county route in the 2023 gures. For
                  future requirements in each route section.            clarity Table 5.10 has been split to show both
                                                                        the additional number of freight paths required
                  5.3.2
                                                                        (Table 5.10(a)) and the total number of paths
                  Using actual train running data from TRUST
                                                                        required (average paths used plus additional
                  (for 12 months May 2004 to May 2005), the key
                                                                        paths required) (Table 5.10(b)).
                  route sections in the Greater Anglia RUS have




88
 Table 5.10(a): Additional Freight path requirements in 2014/15 and 2023
 (All gures are paths per day each way)




                                                       Maximum Paths




                                                                                                                           (with some growth
                                                                                                                           required by 2023
                                                                                                                           Additional paths
                                                                                             Additional paths




                                       Average Paths




                                                                       Planned Paths




                                                                                                                           accommodated
                                                                                           required by 2014/15




                                                                                                                           Country route)
                                       Used – 2005


                                                       Used – 2005




                                                                                                                           on the Cross
                                                                       2005
                                                                                       FRUS Base       FRUS
 Section                                                                               Case            Sensitivity 2
 Manor Park – Ilford                       16              25              26                   20                14                   12
 Maryland – Forest Gate Jn                 29              39              49                   22                18                   21
 Shen eld                                  17              25              26                   20                14                   13
 Ipswich – Halifax Jn                      21              31              27                   20                14                    11
 Stowmarket – Haughley Jn                  13              25              14                      6                   4               16
 Whittlesea – Peterborough
 (East)                                    23              41              27                      8                   6               20
Base Case assumes no development of London Gateway Port by 2014/15
Sensitivity 2 assumes London Gateway Port developed by 2014/15




 Table 5.10(b): Total Freight path requirements in 2014/15 and 2023
 (All gures are paths per day each way)
                                                       Maximum Paths




                                                                                                                           (with some growth
                                                                                                                           required by 2023
                                                                                                                           Additional paths
                                                                                             Additional paths
                                       Average Paths




                                                                       Planned Paths




                                                                                                                           accommodated
                                                                                           required by 2014/15




                                                                                                                           Country route)
                                       Used – 2005


                                                       Used – 2005




                                                                                                                           on the Cross
                                                                       2005




                                                                                       FRUS Base       FRUS
 Section                                                                               Case            Sensitivity 2
 Manor Park – Ilford                       16              25              26                   36                30                   28
 Maryland – Forest Gate Jn                 29              39              49                   51                47                   50
 Shen eld                                  17              25              26                   37                31                   30
 Ipswich – Halifax Jn                      21              31              27                   41                35                   32
 Stowmarket – Haughley Jn                  13              25              14                   19                17                   29
 Whittlesea – Peterborough
 (East)                                    23              41              27                   31                29                   43
Base Case assumes no development of London Gateway Port by 2014/15
Sensitivity 2 assumes London Gateway Port developed by 2014/15


5.3.3                                                                  exercise was undertaken by Network Rail’s
Table 5.10 shows that there is a de ciency                             Strategic Access Planning unit (SAP) to
in currently planned paths mainly due to the                           access the number of paths that could
growth in intermodal traf c from the ports.                            be identi ed on the key route sections. In
                                                                       carrying out this exercise allowance was
5.3.4
                                                                       made for pathing trains around overnight
Due to the predominance of the intermodal
                                                                       engineering possessions on the GEML and
traf c from the East Coast ports a timetabling




                                                                                                                                               89
                the cross country route. On both these routes          Felixstowe branch partial doubling.
                single line working is used to gain access for
                                                                       Improvements to Ipswich Yard.
                maintenance and this restricts the number
                of useable paths overnight. This work was              Kennett improve headways and open 24 hrs.
                subsequently extended by SAP to look at                At Nuneaton, provision of a connection
                pathing through to South Yorkshire and                 from the yover to the Down slow.
                Nuneaton and it con rmed that, provided the
                                                                       Gauge clearance Ipswich – Peterborough
                gauging and initial (Phase 1 works) listed
                                                                       – Nuneaton.
                below were undertaken, then the paths listed
                in Table 5.11 could be found:


     Table 5.11 Additional paths per day identi ed in the East Coast Ports Study

     Route Section                                 Additional        Max             Comment
                                                   Paths Per         Practical
                                                   Day Identi ed     (each way)
                                                                     Per Day

     Ipswich – Willesden (via GE/NLL)                        10
     Willesden – Ipswich (via GE/NLL)                        10             10       Eastbound limits
     Ipswich – Peterborough                                  14
     Peterborough – Ipswich                                  17             17       Westbound limits but
                                                                                     Kennett intermediate block
                                                                                     signal gives + 3 = 17 paths
                                                                                     each way
     Peterborough – S. Yorkshire                                 9
     S. Yorkshire – Peterborough                                 9           9
     Peterborough – Nuneaton                                     5
     Nuneaton – Peterborough                                     5           5
     Willesden – GOB – Thameside                             26
     Thameside – GOB – Willesden                                 6           6       Westbound limits due to
                                                                                     Gospel Oak Jn con icts
     Willesden – Stratford – Thameside                       25
     Thameside – Stratford – Willesden                       26             25       Eastbound limits due to
                                                                                     Stratford – Forest Gate
                                                                                     move but it needs to be
                                                                                     noted that this assumes
                                                                                     13 paths from Ipswich
                                                                                     which leaves 12 paths from
                                                                                     Thameside


          In order to assess the impact of the above         identi ed in Table 5.11 for both 2014/15 (Table
          exercise on capacity, Table 5.11 has been          5.12) and 2023 (Table 5.13), again the gures
          re-presented showing the intermodal and non-       represent paths per day each way.
          intermodal growth compared with the paths




90
  Table 5.12 Additional freight paths required by 2014

 Section                                                              Additional Intermodal




                                                                                                                                                                Gap in Paths Required
                                                                                                                                    Coast Ports Timetable
                                                                                                      Total Additional Paths
                                                                      Paths required by




                                                                                                      required by 2014/15
                                              required (excluding




                                                                                                                                    Extra Paths in East
                                                                      2014/15




                                              Additional Paths

                                              Intermodal)
                                              by 2014/15




                                                                                                                                                                in 2014/15
                                                                      Base
                                                                                  Sensitivity 2
                                                                      Case



 Manor Park – Ilford                                        1           19                13         14-20                               10                    4-10
 Maryland – Forest Gate Jn                                  3           19                15         18-22                               25                                  -
 Shen eld                                                   1           19                13         14-20                               10                    4-10
 Ipswich – Halifax Jn                                       1           19                13         14-20                               10                    4-10
 Stowmarket – Haughley Jn                                  -1            7                  5           4-6                              17                                  -
 Whittlesea – Peterborough (East)                           1            7                  5           6-8                              17                                  -

Base Case assumes no development of London Gateway Port by 2014/15
Sensitivity 2 assumes London Gateway Port developed by 2014/15


This shows that the Great Eastern cannot                            The situation is now re-examined for 2023,
quite meet freight growth in the Freight RUS                        showing the impact of diverting growth to the
Sensitivity 2 test up to 2014/15, and in the                        cross country route. The results are shown in
Base Case the route is up to 10 paths short.                        Table 5.13.


  Table 5.13 Additional freight paths required by 2023

 Section                                 Additional                 Additional        Total               Extra Paths                                       Gap in
                                         Paths                      Intermodal        Additional          in East                                           Paths
                                         required                   Paths             Paths               Coast Ports                                       Required
                                         (excluding                 required by       required by         Timetable                                         in 2023
                                         Intermodal)                2023              2023
                                         by 2023

 Manor Park – Ilford                                   2                     10                 12                             10                                      2
 Maryland – Forest Gate Jn                             5                     16                 21                             25                                        -
 Shen eld                                              3                     10                 13                             10                                      3
 Ipswich – Halifax Jn                                  1                     10                 11                             10                                      1
 Stowmarket – Haughley Jn                             -1                     17                 16                             17                                        -
 Whittlesea – Peterborough                             3                     17                 20                             17                                      3
 (East)


This table together with table 5.10 shows the                          container traf c on the cross country route
following:                                                             by 2014/15;

    Depending on the rate of port development                          By 2023 due to freight growth being
    at Felixstowe/Bathside Bay and London                              diverted to the cross country line both
    Gateway Port, there is likely to be a need                         routes are now tight for capacity; and
    to accommodate some of the growth in




                                                                                                                                                                                        91
        The cross country route has a small de cit              platform, this would give exibility
        between Whittlesea and Peterborough.                    that may allow an additional hourly
                                                                passenger service in addition to the
     5.3.5
                                                                extra freight services)
     In all the assessments it has been assumed
     (based on current trends in new build) that            –   Double Syston East – South Jns
     the freight locomotive eet will tend to see
                                                            –   Double the Up/Down slow line from
     an increase in diesel traction (however, it is
                                                                Syston – Wigston (also need to look at
     understood that electric traction will continue
                                                                reducing the headways to 3 mins)
     to be essential to meet timings on the WCML
     north of Preston). Otherwise it is assumed             –   Long crossovers to give parallel moves
     that the growth in freight traf c will not see an          to the Glen Parva line across the
     increase in electric traction for the foreseeable          Midland Main Line (MML) (also need
     future, however, this may be reviewed on                   run round for the Burton Line). (These
     environmental grounds, but the impact of such              last three items would need to be tied
     changes will be beyond the period of the RUS.              in with Leicester resignalling in 2012
     The future traction policy and the extent of               – 2015 as noted in the Freight RUS)
     further network electri cation will, however,          –   Loop east of Nuneaton
     have a bearing on the routing and diversionary
                                                            –   As traf c grows in the longer term
     opportunities for freight traf c.
                                                                further upgrading will be required to
     5.3.6                                                      progressively remove other bottlenecks
     In order to address the small de cit in capacity           on the route
     between Whittlesea and Peterborough forecast
                                                            The current timetable does not permit an
     to occur by 2023, and to look at pathing
                                                            hourly passenger service on the Ipswich
     through to the WCML at Nuneaton, SAP
                                                            – Peterborough route in addition to the
     undertook further work, which has indicated
                                                            above, mainly due to the irregular timings of
     the following:
                                                            the Class 6 freight services. SAP’s view is
        If a second phase of infrastructure works is        that if the existing timetable were revisited
        implemented, then (compared with today)             based on the infrastructure alterations
        it is possible to get at least 14 tpd from          proposed above, a timetable could possibly
        Ipswich to the WCML each way (as well               be produced, which would provide an hourly
        as the 9 East Coast ports’ paths and the            passenger service between Ipswich and
        3 Ipswich – Peterborough services). This            Peterborough, as well as standard Class 4
        therefore delivers an additional 9 paths to         and 6 freight paths under each of the above
        the WCML and the infrastructure required is         scenarios. A further review would need to
        likely to be:                                       assess the impact on long distance services,
        –    Double East Suffolk Jn (to give parallel       but may also identify additional freight paths.
        moves to/from the GEML and the                   5.3.7
        Felixstowe/East Suffolk Line direction)          The lack of spare freight paths on the
                                                         Felixstowe branch was raised in Chapter 3
        –    Improve the run round at Barham
                                                         along with the comparatively low passenger
        –    Double Haughley Jn                          use. Work undertaken by SAP has indicated
                                                         that only a few additional paths would be
        –    Lengthen the loops at Ely
                                                         released if the passenger service was reduced
        –    Commission bi-directional working on        and this is not therefore recommended by the
             Ely West Curve                              RUS. The planned doubling on the branch must
                                                         take place if forecast freight demand is
        –    A bi-directional loop at Peterborough (if
                                                         to be met.
             remodelling were to include an island




92
5.3.8                                               no option for trains to reverse before reaching
The above section has identi ed the need to         London. The option of east facing connections
use the GEML/NLL and the cross country routes       onto the GEML leads to a number of problems:
in order to accommodate intermodal freight             Construction of an east facing connection
growth to the WCML. The strategy assumes               onto the GEML at Forest Gate would be
that some of the growth will be absorbed by the        extremely dif cult (due to land take and
GEML but that the bulk of growth will be routed        environmental issues), and would lead to
via the upgraded cross country route (which will       severe pathing dif culties.
become a strategic freight route). The earlier
                                                       The GEML has limited spare capacity
discussion on engineering access highlighted
                                                       for freight.
the need for the cross country and GEML routes
to act as diversionary routes for one another, so      The cross country capacity is required for
that both routes can be maintained in the long         Felixstowe traf c.
term as traf c rises. Throughout all the above         Running via Ipswich would add
analysis the number of useable paths that can          considerable unproductive mileage
be found in the timetable has been identi ed           to journeys.
and compared with the forecast increase in
                                                    5.3.11
demand to determine how much additional
                                                    London Gateway Port is planned to generate
capacity is required and by when. Clearly the
                                                    around 20tpd each way (over the next 15-20
ability of the operators to use these paths will
                                                    years) and the results of the SAP work were
depend on the resources available and the
                                                    included in the Tables 5.11, 5.12 and 5.13.
spread of paths throughout the day, and thus
the need to implement earlier interventions is      5.3.12
dependant on both the rate of growth of the         The short to medium term strategy for meeting
                                                    intermodal growth is therefore to route the
ports and the ability to use the last few paths
                                                    London Gateway Port traf c via the NLL
as demand rises. It is thus essential that the
                                                    and Gospel Oak – Barking route. The
interventions planned through the TIF work are
                                                    Felixstowe/Bathside Bay traf c would use
developed without delay and that the plans are
                                                    most of the remaining off peak capacity on the
suf ciently exible to allow for further growth
                                                    GEML and then run over the NLL to
to be accommodated as demand rises. The
                                                    the WCML. The balance of the traf c would
relationship between freight growth assumptions
                                                    run via the cross county route. In the longer
and Crossrail is discussed later in the RUS.
                                                    term, in order to meet growth on the NLL, it
5.3.9                                               may be necessary to divert more intermodal
The works between the ports and                     traf c destined for the WCML to the cross
Peterborough/South Yorkshire will be                country route.
funded as part of the Felixstowe South and          5.3.13
Bathside Bay projects under their Section 106       In the Construction Materials market, the
agreements. The remainder of the works in           earlier analysis has included the growth
the rst phase will be funded under the current      forecast for this traf c and has shown the
TIF allocation. It is anticipated that the second   there are suf cient paths to meet this growth.
phase of works described above will be made
                                                    5.3.14
part of a second TIF submission.
                                                    As 40 percent of London aggregate is
5.3.10                                              delivered by rail and a number of terminals
The paths from London Gateway Port need             are wholly rail served, there is little scope for
to be routed across London because the              diversion of any traf c away from London to
connections between the Thameside line and          relieve the current paths. Whilst it is assumed
the rest of the network face westwards with         that the number of trains per day to the various




                                                                                                        93
             terminals will change with the construction           intermodal trains. The restriction is caused by a
             market (with local peaks such as the Olympic          number of factors, principally terminal capacity,
             works), the overall volumes and patterns of           the restricted length of Ipswich Yard and the
             feed from the quarries are unlikely to change         ability of Class 66 locomotives to meet
             dramatically and thus it is assumed that the          point-to-point timings with longer trains. Any
             above additional paths will be found on the           further alteration to Ipswich yard beyond the
             existing routes to meet growth.                       essential HPUK works would not take place
                                                                   until the Ipswich area is resignalled in around
             5.3.15
                                                                   2015. That having been said the operators are
             In the International sector, it has already
                                                                   keen to explore the opportunities of incremental
             been noted that Channel Tunnel traf c will
                                                                   train lengthening where the opportunity
             interchange at Barking, however, overall the
                                                                   arises in the meantime, and this needs to be
             growth in this and other traf c is assumed to
                                                                   taken into account when signalling and S&C
             be accommodated within the existing paths.
                                                                   renewals are planned on these routes.
             5.3.16
                                                                   5.3.17
             The ability to meet freight growth from the
                                                                   The Freight RUS remitted a number of gaps
             Felixstowe and Bathside Bay through the
                                                                   for the GA RUS to address and these have
             operation of longer trains has been examined
                                                                   been covered by the above analysis (as well
             in the Freight RUS. Whilst the Thameside to
                                                                   as the proposals developed in the Cross
             North London Line route allow the operation
                                                                   London RUS). Table 5.14 summarises the
             of 775m trains (36 wagon plus 2 locomotives),
                                                                   gaps and mitigations.
             investigations show that the GEML and cross
             country routes can only operate 24 wagon




     Table 5.14: Freight RUS gaps

     Gap     Location              Issue                                 Mitigation

     D       Stratford             Interface with access to/from         Loops proposed at Channelsea and
             – Camden Road         the GEML                              Stratford 10A to regulate freight services.
                                                                         Former funded by TfL under NLL
                                                                         upgrade and the latter via the ODA/
                                                                         Network Rail Out Performance Fund.

     E       GEML                  Available Class 4 and 6 slots         GA/CL RUS strategies propose use
                                   between off peak passenger            of GE off peak freight paths plus
                                   services                              upgraded cross country route in order
                                                                         to meet freight growth.

     E-F     Haughley Jn           Single Lead at Haughley Jn            The removal of these restrictions
             – Peterborough        Headways at Kennett                   is being taken forward with NRDF
                                   Con ict at Ely                        funding.

     G-H     Forest Gate           Con icting moves on the GEML          The GA and CL RUS strategies
             – Channelsea                                                propose the use of an upgraded
                                                                         Gospel Oak – Barking route to take
                                                                         some of the traf c away from Stratford.
                                                                         This is being pursued via engineering
                                                                         renewals, TIF and TfL funding.




94
5.4 Summary of gaps
5.4.1
The analysis carried out in this section has
emphasised the degree to which crowding,
especially on the London commuter services
is forecast to get worse unless additional
capacity is provided. On the freight side
the growth in maritime containers requires
improvement to the cross country route.




                                               95
     6. Forecast of change – infrastructure
     and train services

          6.1 Introduction                                  6.3 Planned schemes
          6.1.1                                             6.3.1
          This chapter looks at the recent improvements     There are a number of committed or funded
          to the route and also covers enhancements         schemes affecting the route, most of which
          to the route over the next 10 years that are      are connected with recent government
          planned to go ahead regardless of the RUS.        announcements or are concentrated in the
          It also looks at the renewals programme, so       Stratford area.
          that the opportunities for considering any
                                                               Crossrail
          enhancements proposed by the RUS can be
          taken into account when planning renewals.           Crossrail will link Maidenhead and
                                                               Heathrow in the west with Shen eld and
          6.2 Recently completed schemes                       Abbey Wood in the east. It will include new
          6.2.1                                                stations at key city locations including Bond
          Whilst no major enhancement work has been            Street, Farringdon and Canary Wharf. It will
          carried out in recent years, signi cant gauge        bring an additional one and a half million
          clearance works have been undertaken to              people to within 60 minutes of London’s
          clear the GEML and the Thameside route to            key business area and is expected to carry
          W10, so that 9' 6" containers can be conveyed        200 million passengers a year. The Prime
          on standard freight wagons on the main routes        Minister announced a £16billion funding
          from the region’s ports to the West Coast Main       package for the project on 5th October
          Line.                                                2007. Crossrail is subject to an Act of
                                                               Parliament: a Bill is progressing through
          6.2.2
                                                               Parliament at the time of publication, and
          Under the terms of its franchise ‘one’
                                                               the Government expects it to receive Royal
          railway has funded the extension of some
                                                               Assent in summer 2008. Construction
          of the platforms on the Braintree branch to
                                                               is due to commence in 2010 and the
          accommodate 12-car trains and the extension
                                                                rst trains are expected to run in 2017.
          of the bay platform at Cheshunt, so that 8-car
                                                               On the GEML the scheme includes
          trains can terminate.
                                                               platform extensions for the operation of
          6.2.3                                                10-car trains. The scheme could also
          Within the last 10 - 12 years Railtrack/Network      allow additional services from the West
          Rail have completed the resignalling of the          Anglia route to run to Liverpool Street via
          GEML between Liverpool Street and Marks              Stratford.
          Tey; the West Anglia route from London to            On the GE ‘E’ lines, the Track Access
          Elsenham and Stansted Airport and the whole          Option, produced as part of the scheme
          of the Thameside route.                              development, seeks up to 12 tph in the
                                                               peak and 8 tph in the off-peak and at
                                                               weekends. Whilst the peak service only
                                                               replaces some of the existing services,




96
    the off-peak service is an increase on the      Stratford Stations
    current situation and it will therefore be
                                                    Although High Speed 1 (HS1) has now
    necessary to check the impact on current
                                                    been completed, Stratford International
    and projected freight traf c (as described
                                                    Station itself will not open until the South
    in this document and the Freight RUS1).
                                                    Eastern domestic service starts operating
    In addition it will be necessary to assess
                                                    in December 2009.
    the impact of the peak services on the
    additional services described later in          Work has now commenced on the
    this RUS.                                       Stratford City Development (SCD). The
                                                    Section 106 provisions negotiated with the
    The changes in weekend and evening
                                                    developer include a new northern ticket
    service patterns will also need to be
                                                    hall to the existing Stratford Station, now
    checked against the current maintenance
                                                    more usually called Stratford Regional
    patterns as described earlier in this
                                                    Station. Pedestrian routes between both
    document. Much work is currently in hand
                                                    stations have also been negotiated through
    on timetabling, performance modelling
                                                    the planning process.
    and the assessment of maintenance
    requirements, and the RUS will inform this      The Olympic Delivery Authority (ODA) is
    work. In the case of freight growth this        also developing a scheme working with
    may require more capacity to be provided        Network Rail and DfT to deliver a range
    sooner on the cross country route to            of capacity enhancements including:
    accommodate growth.                             reopening of the eastern subway,
                                                    widening Platforms 6 and 8, a new
    Thameslink
                                                    westbound central platform, an extension
    The scheme will improve north – south           to the mezzanine deck, and improved
    connectivity across London between the          accessibility works including additional lifts.
    Cambridge/Peterborough and Bedford
                                                    London Underground has proposals for
    routes and lines south of the Thames.
                                                    capacity enhancement of the existing LUL
    The scheme includes 12-car operation of
                                                    Ticket Hall as well as the PPP provisions for
    services running on the Great Northern
                                                    a station refurbishment at Stratford and the
    (Kings Cross) route to Cambridge,
                                                    enhancement of the Jubilee Line service.
    which is compatible with the RUS
    recommendations. The demand modelling
    work undertaken for this RUS has taken the
    Thameslink project into consideration and
    this includes the shift of passengers onto
    the upgraded route from adjacent lines.




1   Published March 2007 and established May 2007




                                                                                                      97
     Docklands Light Railway                         Colchester – Clacton resignalling

     In addition to their new terminating            This project is now underway and resignals
     platforms at Stratford and their extension to   the Clacton and Walton branches and
     City Airport, the DLR has also commenced        the GEML (between Marks Tey and
     work providing a link between Stratford         Colchester). The scheme incorporates
     International and Woolwich Arsenal, running     provision for the platform extensions
     over the former North London Line between       required by Essex County Council, as
     Stratford (Low Level) and Canning Town.         well as including bi-directional signalling
     The proposal involves the construction of       between Marks Tey and Colchester.
     two new high level terminating platforms
                                                     Grays 8-car Bay
     for the current NLL services adjacent to
     Platforms 11 and 12 (planned for 2009).         Under the NRDF the bay platform at
                                                     Grays is to be extended to eight cars to
     The London 2012 Olympic and
                                                     permit the operation of longer trains on the
     Paralympic Games
                                                     Tilbury Loop.
     As Stratford will be the focus of The
                                                     Other NRDF schemes
     Games, Network Rail and Transport
     for London are working closely with the         Considerable work has recently been
     ODA to ensure required infrastructure           undertaken on a range of NRDF projects,
     enhancements are in place well in               including re-doubling Haughley Jn,
     advance. The schemes currently in               commissioning bi-directional working
     development include the following:              on Ely West Curve and implementing
                                                     linespeed improvements between Barking
     a) Extension of Platforms 11 and 12 at
                                                     and Upminster. The business cases for
        Stratford to accommodate 8-car trains,
                                                     these projects look encouraging and
        plus an additional crossover and bi-
                                                     authority has been sought to start their
        directional signalling. These facilities
                                                     development through the GRIP process.
        will improve the turnround on services
        running to/from the West Anglia route,       Cambridge Guided Bus scheme
        as well as increasing capacity.              This scheme is now underway and will see
     b) Relocation of the ‘one’ railway carriage     improved access to the city station from
        stabling sidings from Thornton Fields to     St Ives/Huntingdon, the Science Park,
        Orient Way.                                  Addenbrooks Hospital and Trumpington.
                                                     Further developments in the Cambridge
     c) Extension of Platform 10A to allow 12-
                                                     area are likely to include the forecourt
        car trains to call and extension of the
                                                     re-development and the proposal for a
        platform track to allow an eastbound
                                                     new station and transport interchange at
        freight loop to be provided.
                                                     Chesterton sidings.
     d) The Olympic Park proposals also
                                                     New stations to serve proposed
        include the construction of a number
                                                     developments
        of bridges over the railway to provide
        access to the venue.                         Network Rail is working with a number
                                                     of developers, who are considering the
     e) In addition to Stratford Regional and
                                                     provision of new stations to serve their
        International stations, West Ham will also
                                                     developments. Whilst none of these
        provide a gateway station to the Olympic
                                                     stations is yet committed and many are still
        Park. A scheme to provide closing up
                                                     subject to assessment of their impact on
        signals, that will enable more trains to
                                                     capacity, if and when they are built they will
        call there, is under development.
                                                     improve access to the network.




98
   HPUK and TIF funded freight upgrades             Signalling

   The freight analysis contained in Chapters       The main scope for combining renewals
   4 and 5 described the upgrade work that          and enhancements is on the rural sections
   is contained in the HPUK funded Section          of the route. On the East Suffolk Line work
   106 agreement, as well as the work which         will commence shortly on the replacement
   is now being developed/funded through            of the RETB system. This will use ERTMS
   the TIF. Under the TIF the Gospel Oak            radio based signalling and work is due
   – Barking route is to be upgraded as well        to be completed by 2011. Following on
   as the gauge improvements and the initial        from the East Suffolk Line the Norwich
   capacity works on the Felixstowe –               – Yarmouth/Lowestoft routes are proposed
   Nuneaton route. The HPUK work includes           for resignalling with ERTMS by 2013. On
   gauge clearance from Ipswich – South             the Ely – Norwich and Ely – Peterborough
   Yorkshire and capacity works between             routes modular signalling is proposed,
   Ipswich and Felixstowe.                          with migration to ERTMS in around 2015.
                                                    Resignalling of the Manningtree – Norwich
   Strategic Freight Network
                                                    section of the GEML is also planned from
   The Government’s White Paper “Delivering         2015 onwards.
   a Sustainable Railway” was published in
                                                    Track
   July 2007 and it identi ed the desirability of
   a Strategic Freight Network, which would         On the GE and WA routes a number of
   enhance the network used by freight trains       S&C and plain line renewals are planned,
   and reduce con ict between freight and           these include Shen eld, Colchester and
   passenger traf c. The High Level Output          Clacton S&C renewals. Owing to a lack of
   Speci cation for the period 2009-2014,           advanced works on the Crossrail project, it
   published as an appendix to the White            has not been possible to incorporate these
   Paper, allowed for expenditure of up to £200     within the S&C renewals at Shen eld,
   million between 2010 and 2014 to facilitate      however, renewals are reviewed regularly
   the implementation of this concept. The rail     by the route, with a view to incorporating
   industry is working with DfT to develop the      enhancements when sensible. The main
   Strategic Freight Network.                       opportunity identi ed on these routes cover
                                                    the potential to raise speeds on the rural
6.4 Renewals                                        routes in conjunction with track renewals.
6.4.1
                                                    Electri cation
Major renewals offer the ability to consider
synergy with enhancements and align                 There is extensive work planned to renew
capability with future requirements (the            the OLE on the GEML between Liverpool
policy regarding gauging and track renewals         St and Chelmsford/Southend, this should
being contained in the Freight RUS). Details        also enable some speed restrictions to be
of renewals over the next 3-5 years are             removed. On the Thameside route the OLE
contained in the Route Plan volume of               is also being replaced on sections of the
Network Rail’s Business Plan, which was             main line.
published in March 2007. The scope for
synergy with RUS enhancements is limited,
but on an asset by asset basis the situation
can be summarised as follows:




                                                                                                  99
      7. Strategic options



              7.1 Summary of gaps                               Analysis of the current position and expected

              7.1.1                                             changes has revealed gaps between what the

              The purpose of the RUS is to meet the route       railway system delivers and what is required of

              utilisation objective quoted in section 1.1.      it. These are summarised in Table 7.1.



      Table 7.1: Identi cation of Gaps

      No.   Nature of Gap                                     Key Issues

      1     Between existing/forecast peak capacity and       Need to increase peak capacity across all
            train service and/or infrastructure capacity      routes by train lengthening, frequency and
                                                              infrastructure improvements
      2     Between existing/forecast rural/inter-urban       Need to increase train service capacity/
            train service capacity/frequency and required     frequency on rural/inter-urban routes
            capacity/frequency
      3     Between existing access to Stratford/             Lack of services that call at Stratford on the
            Docklands and that required to meet market        West Anglia and GE outer services and at
            needs                                             West Ham on the Thameside route
      4     Between existing service frequencies and the      Lack of service frequency on certain routes
            Mayor of London’s objective of 4 tph all day on
            suburban routes
      5     Between existing freight capacity and forecast    Lack of paths to meet growth also identi ed as
            demand (especially for intermodal and             gaps D-H in the Freight RUS
            aggregate traf c)
      6     Between existing freight gauge, train length      RA, loading gauge and train length
            and route availability and desired gauge and
            capability
      7     Between current and desired performance           Level crossings, Rules of the Route
                                                              compliance, OLE failures, turnrounds on rural
                                                              lines, scope for performance improvements
      8     Between existing engineering access and           Need for extended operating hours and
            desired access regimes especially on the          improved train services at weekends on certain
            Stansted, suburban and cross country routes       routes. Clash between engineering access/
                                                              isolations and use of berthing
      9     Between current power supply and that             Limited capacity in existing supply for
            required for future services/rolling stock        passenger and freight services
      10    Between current access to the network and         Car parking, DDA, crowding, interchange and
            that required to meet future needs                provision of new stations

      11    Between current berthing capacity and future      Berthing capacity required for growth units
            requirements




100
7.2 Option de nition                               7.2.2

7.2.1                                              Further consultation with stakeholders led to

Each gap was considered using a standard           the consideration of other possibilities and to

‘toolkit’ of possible solutions. The ‘toolkit’     the development and re nement of the options

includes a range of interventions, which range     into coherent strategies for each route. When

from the operation of longer trains within the     considering the merits of new options they

current infrastructure and re-timetabling to       were assessed using the same approach as

improve capacity right through to platform         that taken in the consultation document. So, in

extensions and the construction of additional      the case of London-bound service options, for

tracks. Using the ‘toolkit’, interventions were    example, they were appraised using PLANET

developed into options, which were then            and DfT guidance.

reviewed and agreed by the key stakeholders        7.2.3
before being assessed. The options were            Table 7.2 provides a brief description of each
assessed individually and a summary of the         of the options presented in the RUS Draft for
assessments was published in the RUS Draft         Consultation. Later in the chapter a summary
for Consultation.                                  of each of the options is presented including
                                                   details of how each has been developed
                                                   since consultation.



  Table 7.2: Options
 Option 1: Lengthen peak services on the Thameside Main Line
 This option tested extending trains to 12-car to accommodate increases in passenger demand. This is
 intended to alleviate crowding for passengers and to handle predicted demand growth. This would require
 additional rolling stock but no infrastructure (other than minor works).
 Option 2: Lengthen peak services on the Tilbury Loop and Ockendon branch
 This option tested extending trains to 12-car to accommodate increases in passenger demand. This is
 intended to alleviate crowding for passengers and to handle predicted demand growth. In addition to a
 requirement for additional rolling stock, platforms on the Tilbury Loop and Ockendon branch would be
 extended to accommodate the longer trains.
 Option 3: Replace inter-city rolling stock on Anglia Inter-City services
 This option tested replacing inter-city sets with more up to date inter-city rolling stock – assumed to be
 similar to Class 444 currently used on SWT’s long distance services – on the Anglia Inter-City route. Class
 444s operate as 5 x 23m units and are con gured as low density seating (2 + 2) units to retain standards
 of passenger comfort. This would increase seated capacity on the peak services by just over 1,000 seats.
 An alterative would be to deploy IEP (HST 2) sets or similar inter-city standard multiple units. In assessing
 the value for money of this option the costs of Class 444 rolling stock have been used.
 Option 4: Run two additional GE outer services in the busiest peak hour
 This option tested running two additional trains in the busiest peak hour. We assumed that one train started
 from Colchester Town and one ran from Chelmsford. This is intended to alleviate crowding for passengers
 and to contribute to handling predicted demand growth.




                                                                                                                 101
      Table 7.2: Options (continued)
      Option 5: Call all GE outer services at Stratford
      This option tested changing calling patterns so that all services on the GEML will stop at Stratford.
      This is intended to provide a direct link between Norwich, Ipswich and Stratford and improve connectivity
      between the Eastern region and London Docklands/other transport links at Stratford including LUL Jubilee
      Line, DLR and HS1. It is expected that the proposal would even-out passenger loadings between GE
      Outer services. Platform 10A at Stratford would need to be extended to handle 12-car trains in order to
      implement this option.
      Option 6: Run additional peak services on the GE from Chadwell Heath
      This option tested running nine extra services on the GE inners over the three peak hours. It was assumed
      that the additional trains would operate from a new turnback at Chadwell Heath. This is intended to
      alleviate crowding for passengers and to handle predicted demand growth.
      Option 7: Lengthen peak services on the Chingford route
      This option tested operating 9-car trains on the Chingford branch of the West Anglia route. The existing
      infrastructure can accommodate 9-car trains on that route (although some work will be required to meet
      modern standards). This is intended to alleviate crowding for passengers and to handle predicted demand
      growth.
      Option 8: Lengthen West Anglia services between Cambridge/Stansted Airport and London to 12 cars
      This option tested operating 12-car trains during the peak on West Anglia Outer services, including
      those that serve Stansted Airport. This increases seated capacity by about 50 percent during the peak.
      This is intended to alleviate crowding for passengers and to contribute to meeting predicted increases in
      passenger numbers. Some stations on the route can already handle 12-car trains but currently no services
      operate in more than 8-car formation. The option requires platform extensions (or SDO) at a number of
      stations.
      Option 9: Lengthen Hertford East – London services to 12 cars
      This option tested operating 12-car trains during the peak on West Anglia services running to/from Hertford
      East and Broxbourne. This is intended to alleviate crowding for passengers and to handle predicted
      demand growth. Platform extensions would be needed throughout the route from Tottenham Hale to
      Hertford East.
      Option 10: Operate 9-car trains from En eld Town and Cheshunt
      This option tested operating 9-car trains on this route to add around 12 percent capacity to peak services.
      This would alleviate crowding and contribute toward handling predicted demand growth on the route.
      The infrastructure (except at Stoke Newington) can accommodate 9-car trains (although some work will
      be required to meet modern standards). In the appraisal the use of SDO at Stoke Newington has been
      assumed because it is expected that the cost of extending the platform there would be very high.
      Option 11 – Operate shuttle services between Cheshunt and Seven Sisters
      This option tested operating an 8-car shuttle service between Seven Sisters and Cheshunt in the busiest
      peak hour. Capacity is available over this route for the two trains an hour if an improved turn-back facility is
      provided south of Seven Sisters.
      Option 12: Increase capacity on the West Anglia Main Line
      This option proposed increasing line capacity on the West Anglia route and an illustrative train service
      speci cation of eight extra services an hour during the morning peak on the WAML was tested. Two of
      these (starting at Stansted Airport) were tested as operating through to Liverpool Street. The other six
      would run to and terminate at Stratford. Two each of these are tested to serve Hertford East, Stansted
      Airport and Cambridge. In combination with these service changes running longer trains has been tested
      on Stansted Airport services and the semi-fast Cambridge services, which would only serve those stations
      that can already handle 12-car trains. This was intended to provide suf cient capacity to handle predicted
      increases in passenger numbers and to provide regular direct rail links between all stations on the WAML
      and Stratford/Docklands. Operating these additional services would require signi cant capacity increases
      between Broxbourne Junction and Coppermill Junction as well as investment in rolling stock.
      Option 13: Increase frequency of Ipswich – Peterborough services to hourly.
      This option tested operating a regular hourly service between Ipswich and Peterborough throughout
      the day.
      Option 14: Increase frequency of East Suffolk line services to hourly
      This option tested operating a regular hourly service on the East Suffolk Line between Ipswich and
      Lowestoft throughout the day. This requires the building of a new passing loop at Beccles and doubling
      East Suffolk Jn.




102
Table 7.2: Options (continued)
Option 15: Provide an hourly service between Ipswich and Saxmundham
This option tested operating a regular hourly service between Ipswich and Saxmundham throughout the
day. This requires East Suffolk Jn to be doubled.
Option 16: Increase capacity on rural/inter-urban services to meet peak demand
This option proposes strengthening a number of services to increase peak capacity on services radiating
from the regional centres of Cambridge, Norwich and Ipswich.
Option 17: Increase freight gauge and capacity on the Felixstowe – Nuneaton route
This option describes the two phases of work required to meet freight growth to both 2014/15 and 2023 by
enhancement of the cross country route.
Option 18: Improve the Route Availability for freight traf c on the Ipswich – Peterborough route
Trains over RA 6 are subject to speed restrictions on the cross country route and this option proposes
works to remove these restrictions.
Option 19: Improve performance through a range of measures
The key stakeholders identi ed a number of performance initiatives following a review of the performance
analysis work. These include: investigate closure of the level crossings in the Lea Valley; review the Rules
of the Plan; prevent further catastrophic OLE failures; improve turnarounds on rural services; carry out a
range of performance improvement schemes using NRDF funding, including fully commissioning Ely West
Curve.
Option 20: Improve the ef ciency of Engineering Access
The RUS analysis has identi ed a number of areas where the impact on the operators of engineering
access could be reduced. These areas include: longer operating hours, reducing the impact on berthing
and depots, improving engineering access on the cross country route, whilst increasing overnight freight
capacity and making more use of single line working where possible to reduce the impact of weekend
engineering works on train services.
Option 21: Improve the power supply to match future requirements
As part of the RUS analysis work, the Electri cation & Plant Engineer has assessed the increased
power requirements in order to accommodate the predicted changes in train service and rolling stock
requirements.
Option 22: Improve passenger access to the network
Analysis carried out for the RUS, including the car park study by Passenger Focus, has shown that
improving station facilities would be bene cial in a number of areas. This work will be taken forward and
developed in a number of areas by the Route Enhancement Team.
Option 23: Improve berthing capacity
The analysis of berthing capacity has shown that the current facilities are nearly at capacity and additional
berthing will be required where there are signi cant changes in rolling stock volumes. This option also
considers the additional rolling stock requirements.




                                                                                                                103
              7.2.4
              Table 7.3 shows which gaps are addressed by
              which options. It should be noted that some
              gaps may only be partially addressed by
              individual options, and conversely that some
              options may address more than one gap.


      Table 7.3: Gap/Options Matrix

      No.        Nature of Gap                                                 Option by which Gap
                                                                               Addressed

      1          Between existing/forecast peak capacity and train             Options 1 – 12
                 service and/or infrastructure capacity
      2          Between existing/forecast rural/inter-urban train service     Options 13,14,15,16
                 capacity/frequency and required capacity/frequency
      3          Between existing access to Stratford/Docklands and            Options 5,12,22
                 that required to meet market needs
      4          Between existing service frequencies and the Mayor of         Options 1,2,8,9,10,11,12
                 London’s objective of 4 tph all day on suburban routes
      5          Between existing freight capacity and forecast demand         Options 17
                 (especially for intermodal and aggregate traf c)
      6          Between existing freight gauge, train length and route        Options 17,18
                 availability and desired gauge, length and capability
      7          Between current and desired performance                       Option 19
      8          Between existing engineering access and desired               Option 20
                 access regimes especially on the Stansted, suburban
                 and cross country routes
      9          Between current power supply and that required for            Option 21
                 future services/rolling stock
      10         Between current passenger access to the network and           Option 22
                 that required to meet future needs
      11         Between current berthing capacity and future                  Option 23
                 requirements


              7.3 Assessment of options                          drawn on in the assessment of options, which

              7.3.1                                              are common to both the RCP and the RUS.

              Each of the options outlined above were            7.3.2
              assessed prior to consultation. Options            In the RUS Draft for Consultation for each
              intended to address increased passenger            of options 1 to 15, the costs and bene ts
              demand and on-train crowding were tested           were quanti ed by applying the DfT appraisal
              and appraised using industry standard models.      criteria to modelled outputs. A summary
              Options for changes to services into London        description of the impacts of the option was
              were modelled by Atkins, using PLANET              tabulated including the bene ts and costs
              South AM. Passenger demand options where           associated with each option if implemented
              over-crowding is not a signi cant issue were       individually. The RUS strategy (presented in
              modelled using MOIRA. Analysis conducted by        Chapter 9) has been developed from this set
              Arup (using the Railplan model) for TfL, in the    of options.
              development of its Rail Corridor Plans, was




104
7.3.3                                              available during Control Period 4 (following
Presented below are tables which describe          the publication of DfT’s HLOS and the recent
the concept and the impact of the options that     announcement on the Crossrail project.
were included in the consultation document,
                                                   7.3.4
together with a description of how these have
                                                   The estimates of the values of costs and
been developed through consultation toward
                                                   bene ts or the bene t cost ratios from the
the coherent strategy. The development of the
                                                   RUS Draft for Consultation are not re-
options re ects: a) the results of the original
                                                   presented in the tables below because they
business case work and the initial Bene t Cost
                                                   are not valid for the assessment of the value
Ratios (BCRs); b) the ability of the options
                                                   for money of the proposed strategy. In Chapter
taken together to meet the passenger demand
                                                   9 the assessment of the value for money of
forecast; c) more detailed timetable and
                                                   the proposed strategies for each route and
performance assessments to determine the
                                                   for the RUS area as a whole is presented.
feasibility of operating the proposed services;
                                                   This properly accounts for synergies between
d) additional information on costs and bene ts;
                                                   the costs of schemes and avoids the double
e) the results of the consultation feedback
                                                   counting of bene ts from schemes that
from the key and wider stakeholders and f) a
                                                   contribute to the same objectives.
re-assessment of funding that is likely to be




  Assessment of Option 1: Lengthen peak services on the Thameside Main Line

 Concept
 This option proposes that all main line peak services are strengthened to 12-car formation to meet
 passenger demand.
 Operational analysis
 This option will require adjustments to the working of trains at Fenchurch Street.
 Infrastructure required
 No major infrastructure will be required as 12-car services already operate on the route, however, additional
 platform equipment may be required to assist the dispatch of more 12-car trains. Power requirements have
 been checked and no signi cant enhancements are required.
 Crowding impact
 Extending trains across the peak would provide suf cient additional capacity to meet predicted increases in
 passenger demand in both 2016 and 2021 while broadly maintaining average load factors in the high peak
 hour and over the three peak hours.
 Freight impact
 There would be no impact on freight services from implementing this option.
 Progress/recommendation
 This option allows capacity to be met as demand rises and requires only minor infrastructure development
 on the route. It is recommended that trains are extended to 12-car formation over time to meet passenger
 demand.




                                                                                                                 105
       Assessment of Option 2: Lengthen peak services on the Tilbury Loop and
       Ockendon branch

      Concept
      Extend all platforms to 12-car length and run peak trains at a minimum of 8-car formation with 12-car
      running in the busiest hour of the peak.
      Operational analysis
      This option will require adjustments to the working of trains at Fenchurch Street.
      Infrastructure required
      The platforms on the Tilbury Loop and Ockendon branch would need to be extended to 12-car length and
      additional platform equipment may be required to facilitate the dispatch of 12-car trains. No signi cant
      enhancement of power supplies is required.
      Crowding impact
      This option provides capacity to meet modelled demand in both 2016 and 2021. By 2016 crowding would
      be reduced below base year modelled levels on the Ockendon branch and Tilbury Loop, on average.
      Freight impact
      There would be no impact on freight services from implementing this option.
      Progress/recommendation
      This option allows trains to be lengthened to suit the rates of development on the route and offers some
       exibility in the approach to meeting increased passenger demand. It is recommended that platforms are
      extended on the route and that 12-car services are introduced as passenger demand dictates. Autumn
      2007 train loadings indicate that trains running from Pitsea to Fenchurch St via Ockendon are the most
      crowded and it is therefore recommended that the platforms on this route are lengthened as soon as
      practicable.



       Assessment of Option 3: Replace inter-city rolling stock on Anglia Inter-City
       services

      Concept
      This option replaces the Norwich inter-city sets with new rolling stock to increase capacity on these
      services. The rolling stock is assumed to be of inter-city standard, but by removing the need for a
      locomotive and DVT in the formation (and assuming a Class 444 type layout) it is possible to increase
      seated capacity by over a thousand seats over the peak period. The option provides a modern
      homogenous eet, which could be operated in 5-car formation – at times of the day when demand is lower.
      Operational analysis
      This option does not require timetable changes.
      Infrastructure required
      This option will require works to permit the new trains to be operated, including gauge and berthing works.
      Capital costs associated with this will not be signi cant.
      Crowding impact
      Standing is estimated in the model to be eliminated on Anglia Inter-City services if current calling patterns
      are maintained to 2021 or later. The capacity increase at Colchester also helps alleviate crowding on Great
      Eastern outer services but average load factors across the inter-city and outer services would be at similar
      levels as modelled in the base year.
      Freight impact
      There would be no impact on freight services from implementing this option.
      Progress/recommendation
      It is recommended that this is included as part of the strategy.




106
 Assessment of Option 4: Run two additional GE Outer services in the high peak

Concept
This option proposes running two additional 12-car trains in the high peak hour, one from Colchester Town
and one from Chelmsford.
Operational analysis
Provided Platform 10A at Stratford is lengthened and all outer services stop at Stratford (see Option 5), then
the extra trains can be operated without further modi cation to infrastructure on the route. The impact on
performance has been assessed in RailSys. This work estimated that performance would improve in the Up
direction during the morning peak, but that the average delay per train would worsen by 12 seconds in the
Down direction, because of extended journey times (and tighter timetabling) for trains using Platform 10A.
Infrastructure required
This option will require Platform 10A at Stratford to be lengthened. (The cost of this was not considered
in the original business case assessment). A power supply upgrade will be required at Spring eld Feeder
Station to support this option.
Crowding impact
The model results predicted that crowding would be worse than now by 2016 if only two additional trains
were provided. Increasing service frequency by up to 3 trains an hour (as now proposed) together with the
other proposals will enable forecast passenger numbers to be accommodated while reducing average peak
crowding from levels experienced today.
Freight impact
As the extra services would run in the peak hours there would be no impact on freight capacity from
implementing this option and the impact of the ECS moves created by these services on current and future
freight services have been checked.
Progress/recommendation
Operational analysis identi ed that nine additional paths would be available on the GEML if all trains called
at Stratford (which requires extension of Platform 10A at Stratford to allow 12-car trains to stop there). It is
therefore recommended that additional services (up to 3 tph – tested in the model as: one Colchester, one
Chelmsford and one Southend) are provided throughout the peak to meet rising passenger demand. It is
recommended that trains would operate at 12-car length at the busiest times of the day and at 8-car length
in the shoulder peak if that is adequate to meet demand on those trains. Lengthening more trains from
Southminster to 12-cars is also recommended. This requires extension of the passing loop at Fambridge.



 Assessment of Option 5: Call all GE Outer and Anglia Inter-City services at Stratford

Concept
This option proposes calling all services on the GE Outer and Anglia inter-city services at Stratford. This is
intended to provide a direct link between Norwich, Ipswich and Stratford and improve connectivity between
the East of England and London Docklands. It is also expected that the proposal would even out passenger
loadings between GE Outer services.
Operational analysis
Platform 10A at Stratford would have to be extended to handle 12-car trains. The loop is to be extended to
allow freight services to stand clear of the GEML, which will signi cantly improve performance.
Infrastructure required
This option will require Platform 10A and the loop at Stratford to be lengthened.
Crowding impact
By spreading out loadings between trains for passengers who want to disembark at Stratford there would
be some de-crowding bene ts, but these are not predicted to be substantial in the model.




                                                                                                                   107
       Assessment of Option 5: Call all GE Outer and Anglia Inter-City services at Stratford
       (continued)

      Freight impact
      The timetabling work tested calling all peak services at Stratford so there would be no impact on freight
      from the extra calls proposed. If the service pattern change were implemented all day then there may be
      some impact on freight, although it is likely that all down main line services would continue to use Platform
      10 in the off-peak. The freight loop will improve freight performance in the off-peak.
      Progress/recommendation
      It is recommended that all services on Great Eastern call at Stratford. This is required to allow additional
      services to operate on the main line.



       Assessment of Option 6: Run additional peak services on the GE from Chadwell
       Heath

      Concept
      This option proposes running nine extra trains during the morning peak between Chadwell Heath and
      Liverpool Street.
      Operational analysis
      Analysis showed that a turnback facility will be required at Chadwell Heath to allow the pathing of additional
      services and that more than two additional trains in the high peak hour would be dif cult to path without
      major changes to the timetable or incurring performance dis-bene ts.
      Infrastructure required
      The construction of a loop for assisting in turning back trains at Chadwell Heath was investigated during
      consultation.
      Crowding impact
      Eight extra morning peak trains in 2016 are estimated to maintain passenger conditions at 2004/05 levels in
      the model.
      Freight impact
      As the extra services are peak only there would be no impact on freight services from implementing this
      option. The impact of ECS moves on freight paths has been checked.
      Progress/recommendation
      For timetabling, it has been assumed that services that currently start from Ilford will start at Chadwell
      Heath. Performance modelling in RailSys con rmed that running the additional services necessitated the
      turn-back and that performance would need to be carefully monitored when running this level of service.
      Pathing the third extra high peak train may require a more fundamental review of performance or calling
      patterns. It is recommended that this be investigated further and added by 2021, if possible. Alternatively,
      selective train lengthening to ten cars may be possible once platform lengthening has been undertaken for
      the Crossrail project. Power supply reinforcement is required at Spring eld Feeder Station.
      10-car running and the introduction of high density rolling stock (e.g. Class 378) have also been considered
      since consultation.
      It is anticipated that the additional services proposed and the introduction of 10-car services as part of
      the Crossrail scheme will meet the long term capacity needs of inner suburban commuters on the Great
      Eastern route, as well as delivering other bene ts across London.




108
 Assessment of Option 7: Lengthen peak services on the Chingford route

Concept
This option proposes lengthening trains on the Chingford route to a maximum of 9-cars during the peak.
The current infrastructure allows for 9-car running (although some work is required to meet modern
standards).
Operational analysis
This option does not necessitate changes to the timetable. Current practice is to diagram some of the
Chingford trains to operate on other routes on West Anglia so if longer trains were run on the Chingford
branch it would be necessary to either: ensure that the longer rolling stock is diagrammed to routes that it
can operate over; and/or re-timetable and re-diagram the route. It would be necessary to ensure that the
diagramming of the longer trains does not cause operational dif culties.
Infrastructure required
Some infrastructure work is required on the Chingford route to accommodate 9-car trains but no power
supply reinforcement is required.
Crowding impact
Lengthening 8-car trains to 9-cars adds around 12 percent to capacity. On the Chingford route this would
be suf cient to maintain current travelling conditions until 2012 (at predicted rates of passenger demand
increase). Some rolling stock on this route provides lower capacity than is typical on inner-suburban
services and some trains run at 4-car length in the peak. It is expected that switching all peak trains to 9-car
running would provide suf cient capacity to accommodate predicted increases in demand while maintaining
or improving crowding conditions for passengers.
Freight impact
There would be no impact on freight services from implementing this option.
Progress/recommendation
It is current practise to inter-work the units between inner-suburban service groups on West Anglia to make
ef cient use of the rolling stock throughout the day. In light of this, it is recommended that 9-car running
be re-introduced on this route and on the other inner suburban routes on West Anglia. It is recommended
that this should be implemented along with a scheme for replacement of the Class 315 rolling stock on the
route. Consideration should be given to providing Class 378 or similar rolling stock with high passenger
capacity layout, which it is expected will be necessary to accommodate long term increases in passenger
demand on West Anglia Inner-suburban services and improve performance by reducing station dwell times
in the peak.



 Assessment of Option 8: Lengthen peak services between Cambridge/Stansted
 Airport and London Liverpool Street to 12-car

Concept
This option proposes lengthening all platforms between Cambridge and Cheshunt to accommodate 12-
car trains, together with the operation of those trains during the peaks. This increases seated capacity by
around 50 percent which is intended to accommodate the 53 percent increase in morning peak journeys to
London that have been predicted for the outer services by 2016.
Operational analysis
No changes to the timetable are required.
Infrastructure required
Some platforms on the West Anglia route can already handle 12-car trains. Platform extensions (or SDO
equipment) would be required at: Cheshunt, Broxbourne, Roydon, Harlow Mill, Sawbridgeworth, Stansted
Airport, Stansted Mount tchet, Elsenham, Newport, Great Chesterford and Shelford. A new island platform
will be required at Cambridge to allow these services to operate, if 12-car services are also introduced
between Cambridge and Kings Cross on the Great Northern route.




                                                                                                                   109
       Assessment of Option 8: Lengthen peak services between Cambridge/Stansted
       Airport and London Liverpool Street to 12-car (continued)

      Crowding impact
      12-car operation would provide considerable crowding relief to existing passengers (average load factors
      were 150 percent in Autumn 2007 on Cambridge – Liverpool St services) but the demand forecasts indicate
      that 12-car operation alone would not provide adequate passenger capacity at outer-suburban stations in
      the longer term. The model predicted that average load factors would rise above levels experienced today
      early in CP5 without further service enhancements (see Option 12).
      Freight impact
      There would be no impact on freight services from implementing this option.
      Progress/recommendation
      It is recommended that 12-car running be introduced as soon as practicable and then to progressively
      lengthen trains over the peak. Power supply reinforcement will be required in the Cambridge area, together
      with some work on track circuits. It may be necessary to change stopping patterns in order to make the
      most of the extra capacity, i.e. providing it where it is most needed.
      Platform occupation at Liverpool St and Stansted Airport have been assessed.
      The cost estimates have been developed further since consultation. On the basis of this work so far it is
      recommended that platforms are lengthened at all stations on the route rather than installing selective door
      operation at some.



       Assessment of Option 9: Lengthen peak Hertford East – London services to
       12-car

      Concept
      This option proposes lengthening the Hertford East branch platforms and running the peak services as
      12-car. This allows passenger capacity to be added to alleviate crowding from current levels on the service
      group and to accommodate predicted increases in passenger numbers during the peak.
      Operational analysis
      Only minor timetable changes would be required but services would have to be re-diagrammed because
      the Hertford services currently inter-work with those operating to Chingford, Cheshunt (via Southbury) and
      En eld.
      Infrastructure required
      None of the stations on the route between Northumberland Park and Hertford East can currently handle
      12-car trains. Platform extensions (or SDO) would be needed at Hertford East, Ware, St Margarets, Rye
      House, Broxbourne, Cheshunt, Waltham Cross, En eld Lock, Brimsdown, Ponders End, Angel Road and
      Northumberland Park.
      Crowding impact
      Adding 50 percent seated capacity to peak services was tested for the consultation draft of the RUS. The
      model predicts that this would accommodate predicted increases in passenger numbers beyond 2021 in
      less crowded conditions than experienced today.
      Freight impact
      There would be no impact on freight services from implementing this option.




110
 Assessment of Option 9: Lengthen peak Hertford East – London services to 12-
 car. (continued)

Progress/recommendation
The stand-alone business case for this option (reported in the RUS Draft for Consultation) was very poor.
Additionally, it is current practise to inter-work the units between inner-suburban service groups on West
Anglia to make ef cient use of the rolling stock throughout the day. In light of this, it is recommended that
9-car running be re-introduced on this route and on the other inner suburban routes on West Anglia. It is
further recommended that this should be implemented along with a scheme of replacement of the Class
315 rolling stock on the route. Consideration should be given to providing Class 378 or similar rolling stock
with high passenger capacity layout, which would be necessary to accommodate long term increases in
passenger demand on West Anglia inner-suburban services and improve performance by reducing station
dwell times.
Whilst the route was originally capable of 9-car operation, the implementation of modern standards means
that some infrastructure works are required. No power or berthing works are required, but one train will
require re-timing at Liverpool St so that all services can be platformed.



 Assessment of Option 10: Operate 9-car trains between En eld Town and
 London Liverpool Street

Concept
This option proposes running 9-car trains from En eld Town and Cheshunt where 8-car trains currently
operate in the high peak and 6-car trains where 4-car trains run now in the shoulder peak. This adds
around 12 percent to passenger capacity in the busiest peak hour and up to 50 percent in the shoulder
peak.
Operational analysis
This option does not necessitate timetable changes. 9-car running from Cheshunt via Southbury was not
originally included to avoid the additional cost of extending the bay platform at Cheshunt.
Infrastructure required
This option will require SDO equipment at Stoke Newington where the cost of extending the platforms
would be very high.
Crowding impact
It is predicted that there will be considerable increases in passenger numbers on this route. Extending
trains to 9-car would provide some crowding relief to passengers but the model predicted that 9-car
running from En eld Town would not provide enough capacity via Seven Sisters to maintain current
crowding through CP5.
Freight impact
There would be no impact on freight services from implementing this option.
Progress/recommendation
It is current practice to inter-work the units between inner-suburban service groups on West Anglia to
make ef cient use of the rolling stock throughout the day. In light of this, it is recommended that 9-car
running be re-introduced on this route and on the other inner suburban routes on West Anglia, including
services to and from Cheshunt via Southbury to increase capacity via Seven Sisters to Liverpool St. It is
also recommended that a shuttle service between Cheshunt and Seven Sisters is re-introduced to increase
service frequency to meet predicted demand on the route (see Option 11).
It is recommended that these measures should be implemented along with a scheme for replacement of
the Class 315 rolling stock on the route by Class 378 with high passenger capacity layout, which would
be necessary to accommodate long term increases in passenger demand on West Anglia Inner-suburban
services. It would also improve train reliability by reducing station dwell times in the peak.




                                                                                                                111
       Assessment of Option 11: Run shuttle services between Cheshunt
       and Seven Sisters

      Concept
      This option proposes running two trains an hour between Cheshunt and Seven Sisters in the peak to
      provide a shuttle to the LUL interchange. This will provide crowding relief for passengers north of Seven
      Sisters, the busiest section of the route. It also provides frequency increases to four trains an hour at
      Theobalds Grove and Turkey Street.
      Operational analysis
      Paths for two trains per hour between the bay platform at Cheshunt and Seven Sisters are available in the
      morning peak.
      Infrastructure required
      Power operation of the crossover at Seven Sisters is required, along with improvements to station capacity.
      Crowding impact
      This contributes to crowding relief on the route. Average load factors would be reduced by a similar amount
      to that achieved by running longer trains from En eld Town, but it is expected that the demand for the
      shuttle service would be less than that for direct trains to Liverpool St.
      Freight impact
      There would be no impact on freight services from implementing this option.
      Progress/recommendation
      It is recommended that shuttle services are introduced to accommodate increasing demand as this
      provides crowding relief along a key section of the route.




       Assessment of Option 12: Increase capacity on the West Anglia Main Line

      Concept
      This option proposes increasing line capacity between Broxbourne Junction and Coppermill Junction by
      four-tracking the route to provide additional services. An illustrative timetable was originally tested which
      comprised running eight additional peak services an hour: four from Stansted Airport; two from Hertford
      East; and two from Cambridge. Two Stansted Airport services would run to Liverpool Street and all others
      would run to Stratford via Tottenham Hale so providing frequent services between all stations and Stratford/
      Docklands. Journey times could also be reduced for West Anglia outer services and service frequency
      increased at those stations in the lower Lea Valley where service levels and patronage are currently poor.
      To provide adequate capacity from Stansted Airport for airport passengers, Stansted Express trains are
      lengthened to 12-car and lengthening the semi-fast trains from Cambridge was also originally included in
      the modelling, as well as removing the call at Broxbourne to avoid the cost of extending the platforms.
      Operational analysis
      This option required extensive timetabling and performance modelling, which showed that altering the
      stopping patterns between Cheshunt and Liverpool St would not make suf cient difference to capacity to
      allow additional trains to run. Therefore signi cant infrastructure is required to operate the level of train
      services proposed in this option. If services run in the off-peak to provide four trains per hour at all inner
      stations then protection of the hourly freight path on the WAML would need to be ensured.
      Infrastructure required
      This option will require extensive works including four-tracking between Broxbourne Junction and
      Coppermill Junction. Some power supply works will also be required.




112
 Assessment of Option 12: Increase capacity on the West Anglia Main Line
 (continued)

Crowding impact
The model predicted that standing would occur infrequently on outer services north of Tottenham Hale if
trains were lengthened to 12-car from Cambridge and Stansted and service frequency were increased by
eight trains an hour (including six trains an hour serving outer-suburban stations). Over-crowding on inner
services would be eliminated on the West Anglia route north of Tottenham Hale right through CP5.
Freight impact
If a scheme is progressed that involves increasing service frequency all-day on the route then there may
be an impact on freight. However, the increase in infrastructure proposed is signi cant and should allow for
both the existing hourly freight path, as well as further freight growth.
Progress/recommendation
It is recommended the four-tracking scheme be developed through CP4 and be delivered in CP5.
Increasing service frequency by six trains an hour (rather than eight) would be adequate to meet demand
on the route in the long term when combined with the other capacity increases that are recommended on
the route (including the operation of 12-car trains from all stations between Cambridge and Cheshunt – as
proposed under Option 8). The scheme has the potential to support the long term development of the M11
corridor and Stansted Airport and so forms a key part of the strategy.
The scheme has possible synergies with Crossrail, in that the release of GE ‘E’ line paths between
Stratford and Liverpool St could allow for the West Anglia 4 tph that would terminate at Stratford under this
proposal to continue to Liverpool St – this would require further works at Stratford. Value for money of the
scheme was tested (without continuation of services to Liverpool St) with Crossrail services operating after
2016 and this showed that the business case was robust.
A timetable has been produced which provides an additional six trains per hour which includes provision
of an hourly freight path in the off peak period. A check on the platforming at Liverpool St station has been
carried out, which revealed that all services could operate with acceptable performance.
The early introduction of a shuttle service between Tottenham Hale and Stratford around 2012 was
examined as part of this scheme. The economic bene ts of a 4 tph shuttle were tested using PLANET and
it was found that operating costs would not be offset by economic bene ts of the stand-alone service.



 Assessment of Option 13: Increase frequency of Ipswich – Peterborough
 services to hourly

Concept
This option seeks to improve the cross country service by running the Peterborough – Ipswich services
hourly throughout the day.
Operational analysis
It is not possible to create a regular hourly service on this route within the existing timetable. However, if
the cross country timetable was reviewed and service patterns changed it is thought that a more ef cient
timetable could be planned, to the bene t of all parties and the additional service could be pathed.
Infrastructure required
If the timetable review were conducted then it is thought that no infrastructure would be necessary,
therefore no capital costs have been assumed in the appraisal. However, the infrastructure identi ed under
Option 17 (improve cross country freight capacity) would greatly assist with timetabling a regular hourly
passenger service over the route.
Crowding impact
Careful timetabling of the services may help reduce the limited crowding on the route.
Freight impact
Without a review of the timetable this option would have an impact on existing Class 6 freight services
serving local aggregate depots.




                                                                                                                 113
       Assessment of Option 13: Increase frequency of Ipswich – Peterborough
       services to hourly (continued)

      Progress/recommendation
      This option is feasible only if the timetable over the route is reviewed. The business case at base year
      levels of demand is weak. At predicted rates of passenger demand increases it is expected that the
      additional services would generate a positive socio-economic case around 2019, though this may be
      sooner if passenger demand increases faster than predicted by PDFH. The timetable is now being
      developed along with the work for a proposed cross country freight route capacity upgrade and, given the
      interest from the Regional Assembly in improved inter-urban services, it is recommended that this option is
      development as part of the cross country workstream.



       Assessment of Option 14: Increase frequency on the East Suffolk Line to hourly

      Concept
      This option seeks to improve the East Suffolk Line service by operating an hourly service throughout the
      day between Ipswich and Lowestoft.
      Operational analysis
      This option requires a new passing loop at Beccles and is dif cult to timetable between Wester eld and
      East Suffolk Junction. Further development of this option is being undertaken in conjunction with the
      ERTMS resignalling project.
      Infrastructure required
      For the basic hourly service calling all station between Ipswich and Lowestoft a passing loop is required
      at Beccles, and it is also desirable that East Suffolk Junction is doubled in order to reduce some of the
      con icts in the Ipswich area and to aid freight growth (see Option 17). Further development of the timetable
      is now being undertaken in conjunction with the resignalling project. This additional work includes an
      assessment of potential upgrades to the level crossings as a result of the proposed service changes.
      Crowding impact
      This option could help relieve the standing on the route that occurs at peak times if the service was
      carefully timetabled.
      Freight impact
      It is likely that East Suffolk Jn would need to be doubled in order to maintain capacity for current and
      predicted freight services.
      Progress/recommendation
      This option is only feasible if the timetable over the route is reviewed. At predicted rates of passenger
      demand increases it is expected that the additional services would generate a positive socio-economic
      case around 2012, though this may be sooner if demand increases more quickly than is predicted by
      PDFH. This option is now being developed in conjunction with the resignalling scheme and may also attract
      third party funding.




114
  Assessment of Option 15: Provide an hourly frequency between Ipswich and
  Saxmundham

 Concept
 This option seeks to increase service frequency on this route to provide a regular hourly service throughout
 the day to serve an increasing market.
 Operational analysis
 This option is dif cult to timetable between Wester eld and East Suffolk Junction.
 Infrastructure required
 It is desirable that East Suffolk Junction is doubled in order to reduce some of the con icts in the Ipswich
 area. An assessment of the level crossings would also be required.
 Crowding impact
 This option’s impact on crowding has not been assessed.
 Freight impact
 East Suffolk Junction would need to be doubled in order to protect freight capacity and future growth.
 Progress/recommendation
 The business case at base year levels of demand is weak. It is not recommended that this option is
 pursued.



7.3.5
The assessment of the remaining options is set
out below. The tables also advise on how it is
planned/recommended to take these options
forward.



  Assessment of Option 16

 Description
 Increase capacity on rural/inter-urban services to meet peak demand. This option also considers
 improvements to east – west links across the region
 Issue
 Even before the regional growth takes place some services are near or over capacity at peak times when
 arriving/departing regional centres. Crowding relief on these trains will also improve rail’s attractiveness
 for discretionary travellers.
 Both Cambridgeshire and Norfolk County Councils are considering improvements to the services around
 Cambridge and Norwich as part of their TIF (congestion) studies. Such improvements would include the
 Cambridge – Norwich service, as well as improvements to capacity on trains operating into Norwich and
 Cambridge (see below).
 Under this option the loadings on the Cambridge – Kings Lynn services have also been considered and
 running longer trains at least as far as Ely needs to be implemented. This needs to be progressed in
 conjunction with the FCC Great Northern Capacity Study proposals and the other developments being
 planned in the Cambridge area.




                                                                                                                115
       Assessment of Option 16 (continued)

      Progress/recommendation
      During the consultation the issue of improved links across and beyond the region was also raised. The East
      West Rail Link has been raised by a number of consultees. The scheme has been examined in detail by the
      East – West Rail Consortium and is covered in the RPA, however, the DfT’s current stance is that the west
      end of the route between Oxford and Bletchley/Milton Keynes will be taken forward, but the east end will be
      served by an express bus service. Thus the RUS has not re-evaluated this scheme as an option.
      However, consultees also raised the issue of improved links between Norwich and Cambridge/
      Peterborough. The existing Liverpool – Norwich and more recently introduced Cambridge – Norwich
      services have been very successful, however, it was felt by consultees that links could be further improved.
      The RUS therefore tested making the services between Norwich and Cambridge half hourly at peak times.
      This not only improves the service to Cambridge but also improves links to Peterborough via Ely (especially
      if Option 13 is also implemented). Testing the value for money of this service showed suf cient bene ts to
      cover the running costs and additional lease costs of the rolling stock that would be needed. However, they
      were inadequate to cover the cost of doubling Ely North Junction, which timetabling of the option revealed
      would be needed – therefore the service improvement needs to be developed in the longer term when the
      junction comes up for renewal. It is recommended that the service frequency improvement be reconsidered
      sooner if road pricing schemes are proposed to be introduced in Norwich or Cambridge and funding is
      released for rail schemes in the area.
      It is recommended that:

         TOCs review rolling stock diagramming/allocation with a view to strengthening services locally to reduce
         peak crowding.
         The case for a half hourly peak service between Cambridge and Norwich has also been examined and
         appraisal suggests that the socio-economic bene ts are greater than the full operational costs of the
         service. This option should be taken forward in conjunction with the renewals programme and local
         authority congestion schemes.
         The strengthening of London services which operate north of Cambridge also needs to be progressed.
         The need for this will also become more pressing if road pricing is to be introduced.



       Assessment of Option 17

      Description
      Increase freight gauge, train length and capacity
      This option has also addressed gaps D-H highlighted in the Freight RUS (see Table 7.4). Chapter 5
      contains details of these gaps as well as a note on the issue of train lengthening.
      Issue
      Need to increase gauge, train length and number of paths available to accommodate the growth of
      intermodal freight especially from the East Coast ports.




116
 Assessment of Option 17 (continued)

Progress/recommendation
Chapter 5 has covered the timetabling work carried out to assess the number of paths available and the
increase in infrastructure required in order to accommodate the freight paths.
This work has so far concluded that:

    In order to accommodate the freight growth both the GE/NLL/WCML and the Felixstowe – Nuneaton
    cross country routes need to be used (with around 8 additional paths routed via London).
    With the existing infrastructure together with the rst phase of enhancements (i.e. those contained in
    the HPUK Section 106 and the current TIF works) around 5 additional paths can be found on the cross
    country route to Nuneaton in addition to the 9 paths to/from South Yorkshire.
    With additional infrastructure proposed in a second phase of enhancement works, it is possible to path
    the additional Yorkshire trains as well as 14 additional services to/from Nuneaton.
    If the existing cross country freight and passenger services were reviewed it may be possible to path
    additional freight services.
   Reducing the passenger service on the Felixstowe branch will not release suf cient capacity to meet
   freight growth and is not recommended – the planned partial doubling of the branch is required.
The development of this option is to continue with re nement of the timetable and infrastructure works.
Further TIF submissions can then be made. Early business case development work shows a bene t
cost ratio of around 2.1 for a scheme to increase cross country freight train capacity between Felixstowe
and Nuneaton.
Chapter 5 contains details on train lengthening.



Table 7.4: Freight RUS gaps

    Gap         Location                       Issue                               Mitigations

D           Stratford           Interface with access to/from the     Loops proposed at Channelsea
            – Camden Road       GEML                                  and Stratford 10A to regulate freight
                                                                      services. The former funded by
                                                                      TfL under NLL upgrade and the
                                                                      latter via the ODA/Network Rail Out
                                                                      Performance Fund.

E           GEML                Available Class 4 and 6 slots         GA/CL RUS strategies propose use
                                between off-peak passenger            of GE off-peak freight paths plus
                                services                              upgraded cross country route in
                                                                      order to met freight growth.

E-F         Haughley Jn         Single Lead at Haughley Jn            The removal of these restrictions
            – Peterborough      Headways at Kennett                   is being taken forward with NRDF
                                Con ict at Ely                        funding.

G-H         Forest Gate         Con icting moves on the GEML          The GA and CL RUS strategies
            – Channelsea                                              propose the use of an upgraded
                                                                      Gospel Oak – Barking route to
                                                                      take some of the traf c away from
                                                                      Stratford. This is being pursued via
                                                                      engineering renewals, TIF and TfL
                                                                      funding.




                                                                                                              117
       Assessment of Option 18

      Description
      Improve the Route Availability for freight traf c on the Ipswich – Peterborough route
      Issue
      Class 6 freight trains are subject to speed restrictions on the Ipswich – Peterborough route and the line
      needs to be able to carry this traf c at speeds of up to 60 mph.
      Progress/recommendation
      This scheme is being investigated and developed as a potential NRDF project. This work involves the
      engineers (principally for track and structures) in examining the causes of the restrictions on heavier
      freight vehicles to determine the works required to raise speeds. These works will then be costed and
      submitted for NRDF funding and (where possible) will be undertaken with maintenance/renewal works. The
      assessments are currently underway and the results are expected in Spring 2008.



       Assessment of Option 19

      Description
      Improve performance through a range of measures
      Issue
      The stakeholders identi ed performance issues under 6 headings.


      Progress/recommendation

      The performance issue and the recommendations/progress with their development are summarised below:
         Close the crossings in the Lea Valley and replace with bridges and/or subways. The RSSB Level
         Crossing model has been used to assess the replacement of the key crossings on the route. There is
         a stand-alone business case for replacing at grade crossings along the Lea Valley. It is recommended
         that the level crossings are closed/replaced during Control Period 4 as part of the development work for
         four-tracking the route.
         Review/Improve Rules of the Plan
         The Rules of the Plan have been reviewed and changes are being implemented between Ipswich and
         Norwich, Liverpool St and Shen eld and on West Anglia.
         Replace poorly performing sections of the OLE
         Design and development is being worked up for the replacent of the OLE between Liverpool St and
         Southend/Chelmsford. Implementation is planned prior to 2012.
         Improve turnrounds on the rural routes
         The turnrounds on the Ipswich – Cambridge service need to be improved. Speeds could be improved
         as a result of track renewals but signalling works are also required. The scheme is being developed
         under NRDF.
         Remove the restrictions on Ely West Curve
         Restrictions were placed on the curve when it was commissioned in the 1990s and the business case is
         being developed with a view to using NRDF funding in order to remove both the directional and double
         blocking restrictions in the area.
         Increase speeds between Barking and Upminster
         An increase in speed is being investigated, in order to improve journey times/performance margins.
         Work may also be required in conjunction with this to improve the regulation of trains running to/from
         the Ockendon branch. This work would be funded through the NRDF.
         A number of other schemes have been propsed in the SBP for NRDF funding in CP4.




118
 Assessment of Option 20

Description
Improve the ef ciency of engineering access
Issue
The review of engineering access referred to earlier in this document has shown that access needs to be
improved in the 5 areas discussed below:
   Reducing the impact of possessions on the Stansted route has been the subject of and Ef cient
   Engineering Access cross-industry study.
   Passengers want to travel to Stansted later in the evening and earlier in the morning – particularly
   on some weekday nights and at weekends. In order to address the issue, the study assessed low
   cost options which would maximise industry bene ts and concluded that it was possible to change
   maintenance and renewals to reduce engineering access time. This recommendation has now been
   implemented.
   Assess the impact of TfL’s proposed hours of operation on suburban routes
   Once TfL have speci ed the hours required on the suburban routes it will be necessary for Network
   Rail to check these times against its engineering requirements and the service requirements of other
   operators (especially freight). This issue will be taken forward through a Rules of the Route Review
   under standard industry processes.
   Reduce the impact of possessions on berthing and depots
   There are a number of areas where alternative power feeding arrangements need to be investigated
   for berthing sidings and depots, so that train maintenance and stabling are not affected by engineering
   works. This issue is likely to become more prevalent as the demand for rolling stock rises in the future.
   This work is to be undertaken by the Electri cation & Plant Engineer with funding from the NRDF for
   any cost effective schemes.
   Improve engineering access on the cross country freight route
   Increasing freight traf c on the GE and especially the cross country route means that proper
   diversionary arrangements are required to permit good engineering access at night and weekends.
   The proposals being worked up consider making the GE/NLL/WCML and the cross country routes
   diversionary routes for each other. This requires the enhancement works to the cross country route (and
   ECML (South)) to be in place as well as a check on the operational feasibility of the option. This work
   will be taken forward as part of the TIF funded cross country freight project.
   In conjunction with the above, with the increasing need to reduce the impact of engineering works on
   the weekend services, the engineering access review process is also examining ways of increasing the
   use of single line working, as a means of reducing the number of all line blocks across the network. This
   initiative has recently been implemented on parts of the Thameside route.
Progress/recommendation
These schemes are being taken forward as part of a number of initiatives, including the engineering
access, NRDF and cross country freight projects.
Between Liverpool St and Stansted Airport, passenger trains run earlier in the morning and nish later in the
evening on the busiest weekdays and at weekends. This change was implemented on 9 December 2007.
From the earlier comments on the Crossrail project it will be apparent that the impact of Crossrail on
maintenance regimes will need to be assessed.




                                                                                                               119
       Assessment of Option 21

      Description
      Improve power supply to match future requirements.
      Issue
      The power supply is known to be operating close to the limit in several areas, requiring a check whether
      any enhancements are required in order to meet future needs. A number of EMUs will also operate with
      regenerative braking and this includes an EWS proposal to operate Class 92 locomotives in regenerative
      mode between the NLL and Ripple Lane (following the recent opening of HS1)
      Progress/recommendation
      The impact of the additional services proposed in the RUS has now been assessed by the Electri cation &
      Plant engineer, although a more detailed assessment of the impact of regenerative braking will be required.
      The study shows that:
          On the Thameside route only minor upgrading work is likely to be required.
          On the GEML an additional supply point will be required in the Chelmsford area, together with some
          work at Stowmarket.
          On the West Anglia route power reinforcement is required in the Cambridge area and around
          Northumberland Park.
      The cost of this upgrading work is included in our assessment of the value for money of the proposed
      strategy (in Chapter 9).



       Assessment of Option 22

      Description
      Improve passenger access to the network.
      Issue
      The analysis carried out as part of the RUS has shown that station facilities need to be improved in a
      number of areas in order to attract people to the network.




120
 Assessment of Option 22 (continued)

Progress/recommendation
The station issues and the recommendations/progress with their development are summarised below:
   Car park capacity needs to be improved at a number of locations
   The Route Enhancement Manager’s team are discussing car park schemes with the train operators.
   Generally these are funded by Network Rail with the cost recovered via the station lease charges. Car
   parks are delivered by either Network Rail or the TOC depending on circumstances. Currently planned
   car park extensions include: Audley End, Harlow Town, Broxbourne, Billericay, Diss, Stowmarket,
   Manningtree, Marks Tey, Witham, Ben eet, Grays, Ockendon and a number of other locations. The
   supressed demand work in the Passenger Focus study will also be used to assist in making the case for
   car park expansion schemes.
   Improve DDA at stations
   The DfT’s DDA programme includes the following stations in the GA RUS area: Audley End, Brentwood,
   Chadwell Heath, Ipswich and Pitsea.
   Improve interchange at LUL stations
   The demand modelling has identi ed the increase in use at stations giving interchange with LUL.
   Projects are getting underway to improve facilities at Stratford with development work being undertaken
   at Tottenham Hale. However, works are also required at West Ham, Seven Sisters (both being
   considered for NRDF funding) and at Walthamstow Central.
   Improve crowding relief at key stations
   The SRA/Railway estates study identi ed a number of stations where crowding is or will become
   a problem (see Appendix C). Those with interchange have been discussed above, however,
   improvements at the London termini will need to be taken forward as part of their master plans. It
   is anticipated that improvements at Cambridge will be undertaken as part of the station forecourt
   development and those at Chelmsford will be improved under a property/local authority scheme.
   Provide new stations to improve access to the network
   A number of developments are currently at the planning stage and generally under Section 106
   agreements, the developers are seeking to provide new stations. Some current proposals are listed
   below, however, individual stations have been (or will be) subject to an assessment of their impact on
   capacity.
The stations/developments currently include:
Chesterton, north of Cambridge, which is being promoted by the County Council as part of their TIF
(Congestion) bid. The station will provide access to the rail network from north of Cambridge and the
surrounding area, thereby reducing the need to drive through the city to the existing station.
A new station north-east of Chelmsford, which will serve development of this side of the borough. The
proposal will include long loops which will also aid performance.
Southend Airport station, which is being promoted by London Southend Airport. The station features in the
airport’s master plan and has received planning permission. Development work is currently underway.
Great Blakenham station is currently being taken through the planning process and is designed to serve the
Snoasis attraction and its associated development
Moreton Hall (to serve a new development near Bury St Edmunds).
The National Station Improvement Programme is designed to improve 150 of the key stations on the
network with funding of £150million plus third party contributions in Control Period 4. The selection of
stations and scoping work are currently underway.
Network Rail is also developing the Modular Station concept. The programme is designed to deliver better
quality, cheaper and more environmentally friendly station buildings more quickly by using the modular
concept. Station buildings come in several sizes and the programme is currently at the prototype stage.




                                                                                                             121
       Assessment of Option 23: Increase berthing capability

      Issue
      The analysis of berthing capacity has shown that it is becoming tight at the majority of locations in the RUS
      area. Additional capacity will be required to provide additional and longer train services.
      Progress/recommendation
      An assessment of additional capacity required has been made and the likely berthing requirements have
      been discussed with the key stakeholders and are summarised below:
         On the Thameside route there is suf cient capacity for the additional units at East Ham and
         Shoeburyness.
         On the GE outers there is suf cient capacity for the changes on the Norwich services but the carriage
         sidings at Parkeston Quay need to be brought back into use to accommodate the stock for the
         additional Colchester/Chelmsford services.
         On the GE inners additional stabling is required at Gidea Park and Ilford and it is proposed to use the
         Crossrail plans for additional berthing at these locations.
         On the WA inners there is suf cient capacity at Chingford to accommodate 9-car trains.
         On the WA outers additional sidings are required at Cambridge or Orient Way (or another West Anglia
         location) in order to accommodate the additional rolling stock.
      The above sidings will also need to include CET, tanking and staff facilities.
      In assessing the value for money of the strategy, the costs of additional berthing have been included.




                 7.4 Summary                                         be required between 2014 and 2023. The

                 7.4.1                                               upgrading of the Gospel Oak – Barking route

                 Many of the options tested have now                 is also required if the freight growth from

                 been developed to enable them jointly to            Thameside is to be sustained and to avoid an

                 meet predicted demand in 2016 and 2021              increasing volume of freight traf c crossing the

                 respectively, and also to re ect the feedback       GEML between Stratford and Forest Gate.

                 received in the consultation responses and          7.4.3
                 brie ngs. The effect of packaging options to        The RUS has considered a range of
                 provide a strategy for each route is developed      options which attempt to address the gaps
                 further in Chapter 9. The publication of the        identi ed. The options range from those
                 ‘Delivering a Sustainable Railway’ White Paper      which address capacity though service
                 also signi ed the need to develop a strategy        changes and infrastructure enhancements to
                 for meeting long term growth. This is explored      those which address gaps around stations
                 further in Chapter 9.                               and performance. Stakeholders’ views on

                 7.4.2                                               these gaps and the initial options have been

                 Regarding the freight market, the analysis          re ected in the development of the options

                 has shown that freight needs to use both the        into a strategy.

                 GEML and the cross country route. The rst
                 phase of development on the latter route
                 is required now and the second phase will




122
123
      8. Consultation process and overview



          8.1 The Draft for Consultation                      – London Lines (c2c and Silverlink)

          8.1.1                                               – Freightliner Group
          The Greater Anglia RUS Draft for Consultation       – English Welsh and Scottish Railway
          was published in April 2007, along with a
                                                              Government and Local Authorities
          press release announcing its publication. The
          document outlined a number of gaps between          – Department for Transport

          the present capability of the rail routes in East   – Of ce of Rail Regulation
          Anglia (in terms of capacity and performance),      – Transport for London
          and the predicted demand for freight and            – Olympic Delivery Authority
          passenger traf c in both 2016 and 2021. A set
                                                              – City of London
          of options was proposed for bridging those
          gaps.                                               – London Councils
                                                              – East of England Regional Assembly
          8.1.2
          The RUS Draft for Consultation was distributed      – East of England Development Agency
          to a wide range of stakeholders and a period        – East of England Regional Transport
          of twelve weeks was allowed for stakeholders         Forum
          to respond. The consultation period ended on        – London Borough of Redbridge
          13 July 2007.
                                                              – London Borough of En eld
                                                              – London Borough of Barking and
          8.2 Consultation responses
                                                               Dagenham
          8.2.1
                                                              – London Borough of Havering
          A total of 83 consultation responses were
          received and these are broken down as               – London Borough of Haringey
          follows:                                            – Norfolk County Council

          Train operators                          4          – Suffolk County Council
                                                              – Hertfordshire County Council
          Government and local authorities       34
                                                              – Essex County Council
          Businesses                             12
                                                              – Nottinghamshire County Council
          Other Statutory and
                                                              – Waveney District Council
          Vountary Sector Organisation           23
                                                              – Mid Suffolk District Council
          MPs                                      2
                                                              – Norwich City Council
          Members of the public                    8          – Fenland District Council
          8.2.2                                               – Kings Lynn and West Norfolk District
          Formal responses were received from:                 Council

             Train operators                                  – Great Yarmouth Borough Council

             – ‘one’ railway                                  – Ipswich Borough Council
                                                              – East Herts District Council




124
– Colchester Borough Council                    Businesses
– Epping Forest District Council                – BAA
– Chelmsford Borough Council                    – Hutchison Ports (UK) Ltd
– St Edmundsbury Borough Council                – Norwich Union
– Borough of Broxbourne Council                 – Abermed
– Braintree District Council                    – Norfolk Chamber of Commerce
– Black Notley Parish Council                   – Scott Wilson

Other Statutory and Voluntary Sector            – Thames Gateway London Partnership
Organisations                                   – Thames Gateway Development
– London TravelWatch                                 Corporation

– Passenger Focus                               – Harlow Renaissance

– Rail Freight Group                            – Southend Airport Company Ltd

– Fen Line Users’ Association                   – Norwich and Norfolk Financial Industry
                                                     Group
– Mid Anglia Rail Passenger Association
                                                – WSP Consulting
– Peterborough – Ely – Norwich Rail Users
– East Suffolk Travellers’ Association       In addition there were two responses from
                                             MPs and eight from members of the public.
– Witham and Braintree Rail Users’
 Association                                 8.2.3
– Norwich and Norfolk Transport Action       Copies of the various organisations’ responses
 Group                                       can be found on the Network Rail website at
                                             www.networkrail.co.uk.
– Friends of the Earth
– Transport 2000
– STEER
– Essex Rail User Group
– Norfolk Rail Alliance
– Stop Stansted Expansion
– Gospel Oak - Barking Line User Group
– Railfuture
– Thurrock Rail Users’ Group
– West Anglia Routes Group
– Chingford Line Users’ Association
– Walton, Frinton, Kirby Cross and Thorpe-
 le-Soken RUA
– NLSA
– Thames Gateway Forum




                                                                                              125
      8.3 Key themes in the consultation                  train operator and DfT, as speci er of the
      responses                                           Greater Anglia passenger franchise.

      8.3.1                                               On the GEML inner suburban services,
      The responses which have been received              opinions were divided over the use
      are well considered, and in many cases              of high capacity rolling stock against
      comprehensive. As a result, it is dif cult          train lengthening. It is anticipated that
      to provide an individual précis of each             the capacity needs of inner suburban
      submission. Many covered very similar               commuters on GEML will be met by
      issues and the key and recurring themes are         Crossrail, which is now funded for delivery
      summarised below:                                   in 2017.

         Respondents emphatically supported the           The options to address rural/inter-urban
         four-tracking of the WA route between            service frequency and local crowding
         Coppermill and Broxbourne Junctions              were supported, however, the freight
         to provide additional line capacity and          operators raised concern over capacity
         increase passenger train service frequency       between Ipswich and both Peterborough
         to meet predicted increases in passenger         and Lowestoft if passenger services were
         numbers.                                         increased. The additional infrastructure
                                                          required to facilitate increases in passenger
         Almost every respondent felt that the
                                                          and freight services has been investigated,
         options in the RUS Draft for Consultation
                                                          but the Class 6 freight services are being
         did not go far enough in providing
                                                          examined to see if re-timetabling could
         additional capacity to deal with regional
                                                          yield more capacity on these routes.
         growth, especially on the GEML. Since
         publication of the draft RUS further work        Many respondents said that they supported
         has been carried out on the options, which       the strengthening of local services where
         demonstrates that the forecast demand            they are overcrowded but they thought
         out to 2021 can be met with the measures         that the RUS should be speci c over which
         that are recommended. In addition, in order      services to strengthen, and they also felt
         to respond to the Government’s 30 year           that the East – West Rail Link should have
         plans contained in the recent White Paper,       been included. It has been highlighted
         interventions which address long term            where crowding occurs or is likely to occur
         growth have been included.                       and it is the TOCs’ responsibility to provide
                                                          the additional stock where required, which
         Many respondents emphasised the need
                                                          could be delivered by re-diagramming the
         for a reliable high quality service between
                                                          existing units or procuring additional rolling
         London and Norwich. They were supportive
                                                          stock. From the work already carried out
         of the plans to replace the overhead line
                                                          by DfT on the East-West Rail Link project,
         equipment in the London – Chelmsford
                                                          the Government supports development
         corridor, but warned against down-grading
                                                          of the route in the south midlands but
         the Norwich service from inter-city trains to
                                                          not into East Anglia. That being the
         suburban standard. It is emphasised again
                                                          case, it is not possible for the RUS to
         that the options for replacement rolling
                                                          recommend development of the eastern
         stock are assumed to be either the DfT’s
                                                          section because funding is not available,
         Inter-city Express Project (IEP) train or long
                                                          nor reasonably likely to become available
         distance EMUs. The capacity gures used
                                                          during the period of the RUS. The RUS
         in the option evaluation are based on the
                                                          has however, given further consideration
         Class 444 unit, however, the nal layout
                                                          to the links between Norwich and the west.
         and ambience will be a matter for the
                                                          Additional peak services between Norwich




126
and Cambridge, which would also link into
the services to Peterborough and beyond,
have been proposed.

The freight operators pointed out errors in
the capacity tables (which have now been
corrected) as well as raising concerns over
the potential for clashes between additional
ECS moves and freight services in the
shoulder peaks. Timetabling work, which
takes these moves into account has now
been carried out. The FOCs also raised
the issue of the Crossrail timetable and
compatibility with increased use of the GE
route by freight services. The industry is
working on this issue.

Freightliner also pointed out that the
capacity tables assume that all paths
can be used whereas when capacity
limits are being reached it will become
more and more dif cult to nd useable
paths. Therefore the tables should be
used as an indication of the likely timing
of interventions and additional capacity
should be phased in to keep pace with
increasing demand. Another concern
was the assumption that it should be
possible to divert services from one route
to another overnight. However, it was not
clear whether this (and the current impact
of overnight single line working) had been
allowed for in the capacity gures. The text
now makes clear that the gures do allow
for engineering work during the night.

Consultation responses supported the
plans for improvements to stations and
car parks but expressed concern that
there were no details as to what would
be delivered or how. This has been
addressed by providing more details
on these projects, together with the
programmes/funding arrangements under
which they are being taken forward.

Overall there was strong support for all the
options proposed.




                                               127
      9. Strategy



          9.1 Introduction                                   b) The railway serves a region, which is

          9.1.1                                                 forecast to experience very high levels of

          The study of the routes in the Greater Anglia         growth over the next 15 years, particularly

          area has shown that despite their diversity,          on the West Anglia/M11 corridor. This is

          which ranges from key commuter to rural               driven by a number factors, including the

          lines, the routes are very well used by both          housing allocation in the Regional Spatial

          passenger and freight traf c.                         Strategy, increases in central London
                                                                employment, the importance of regional
          9.1.2                                                 economic centres (especially Cambridge
          This RUS has looked at the current and future         and Norwich), the expansion plans for
          freight and passenger markets and assessed            Stansted Airport and the development of
          the future growth in each. It has then sought         the region’s main ports.
          to accommodate this growth effectively
          and ef ciently, in accordance with the route       c) Peak passenger numbers on the routes

          utilisation objective, speci ed in Licence            have increased by 30 to 40 percent since

          Condition 7. The measures proposed range              privatisation. Growth has been most

          upwards from running additional trains within         rapid on the WA route but steady on the

          the limits of the existing infrastructure to the      more established GE route. The GE route

          provision of additional tracks.                       offers good links to Docklands, where net
                                                                employment growth has been the greatest
          9.1.3                                                 in London over the last few years. Morning
          This RUS has also considered the aspirations          peak passenger numbers continue to
          of funders, including local authorities and           increase rapidly on all the routes. Many
          developers, covering areas such as new and            peak trains are severely over-crowded: the
          improved stations.                                    problem is worst on West Anglia services
          9.1.4                                                 from Cambridge and particularly acute on
          To align with the White Paper, the strategy also      GE inner suburban services.
          looks forward to interventions, which will help    d) Most of the routes are already operating
          deliver sustainable transport to support long         at or close to capacity, which makes
          term regional growth.                                 reliable operation on many of the routes
                                                                challenging. It also limits the options
          9.2 Key issues addressed
                                                                for dealing with growth without sizeable
          9.2.1                                                 interventions.
          In analysing the routes several issues were
                                                             9.2.2
          identi ed:
                                                             In order to address these challenges it was
          a) The GEML, the Thameside/GE/NLL route             rst necessary to examine current and future
             and Ipswich – Peterborough are all key          traf c levels and the gaps between these and
             freight routes and the maritime container       the current capacity of the routes.
             and construction traf c on them is forecast
             to grow strongly.




128
9.2.3                                                         passengers on trains at the busiest point on
The passenger train loadings were examined                    each route and estimates of typical morning
to understand where on-train crowding                         peak load factors (passengers divided by
occurred and how bad it is. Physical counts of                seats) are shown in Tables 9.1, 9.2 and 9.3:



  Table 9.1: Thameside passenger loads (Autumn 2007)

 Thameside                   08:00 - 08:59                                     07:00 - 09:59

                             Passengers                 Load Factor            Passengers            Load Factor
 Main Line                           9,832                      121%                18,799                   108%
 Ockendon branch                     2,653                      118%                 4,669                   119%
 Tilbury Loop                        2,475                      126%                 5,548                   99%
Source: c2c peak counts data 2007, average passenger numbers at the busiest stop.



  Table 9.2: GEML passenger loads (Autumn 2007)

 GEML                        08:00 - 08:59                                     07:00 - 09:59

                             Passengers                 Load Factor            Passengers            Load Factor
 Inner suburban                    11,549                       140%                26,448                   126%
 Southend                            8,168                      113%                13,449                   103%
 Outer suburban                      7,129                      105%                14,324                   99%
 Inter-City                          2,053                      113%                 4,327                   101%
Source: GEML peak counts; Autumn 2007.
Note: Estimates of standard class passenger numbers at the busiest stop.




  Table 9.3: West Anglia passenger loads (Autumn 2007)

 West Anglia                 08:00 - 08:59                                     07:00 - 09:59

                             Passengers                 Load Factor            Passengers            Load Factor
 En eld/Cheshunt                     3,682                      135%                 7,334                   105%
 Hertford                            1,799                      141%                 3,788                   112%
 Chingford                           2,983                      117%                 5,749                   89%
 Stratford                             609                      112%                 1,339                   71%
 Cambridge                           2,804                      150%                 5,533                   124%
 Stansted Express                    1,934                      107%                 3,757                   75%
Source: West Anglia peak count data, Autumn 2007
Note: Estimates of standard class passenger numbers at the busiest stop.

                                                                                                                    129
                      These tables indicate the current average                        These growth rates are constrained by
                      crowding conditions experienced by                               crowding in this do-minimum forecast. The
                      passengers on the different service groups                       forecasts would be much higher if passengers
                      in the RUS area and the number of people                         were not crowded off and even higher still
                      travelling on the routes. This is shown over                     if services were improved to meet rising
                      the three hour peak and in the busiest hour                      demand.1 The high rates of growth and the
                      of the morning (08:00 – 09:00). The most                         degree of constraint indicate the scale of the
                      crowded services are the WA Outers running                       capacity challenge the industry faces on these
                      from Cambridge. On the busiest of these trains                   routes.
                      some passengers are sometimes unable to
                                                                                       9.2.5
                      board the trains at Broxbourne and the limited
                                                                                       The majority of increases in freight traf c will
                      stop service no longer calls at Cheshunt in the
                                                                                       be seen on the GEML and on the Ipswich –
                      peak. Similar load factors were observed on
                                                                                       Peterborough routes. Table 9.5 indicates the
                      the GE inner suburban services which provide
                                                                                       forecast growth in train paths on key sections
                      service to more than 25,000 people travelling
                                                                                       of these routes by 2014/15 and 2023.
                      into London a day.

                      9.2.4
                      The constrained morning peak growth forecast
                      on each of the main corridors is shown in
                      Table 9.4. This is a modelled prediction of what
                      would happen on the routes if the timetable
                      that was introduced in December 2005 was
                      run and nothing was changed.



       Table 9.4: Predicted Changes in Passenger Journeys
       (AM Peak UP Direction; Do-minimum)

       Route                                           2016                                           2021

       Thameside                                       15%                                            17%
       Great Eastern                                   8%                                             9%
       West Anglia                                     37%                                            42%
       Weighted Average                                17%                                            19%
      Source: PLANET South AM outputs, Atkins




      1 The modelled predictions of out-turn demand if the strategy is implemented are presented later in the chapter for each of the routes.




130
 Table 9.5: Additional freight path requirements in 2014/15 and 2023
 (All gures are paths per day each way)

Section               Average    Maximum Planned                        Additional paths required      Additional
                      Paths Used Paths Used Paths                              by 2014/15              paths required
                      2005       2005       2005                                                       by 2023 (with
                                                                                                       some growth
                                                                        FRUS Base        FRUS          accommodated
                                                                        Case             Sensitivity 2 on the cross
                                                                                                       country route)

 Manor Park                16               25              26                20               14                   12
 – Ilford
 Maryland                  29               39              49                22               18                   21
 – Forest Gate
 Jn
 Shen eld                  17               25              26                20               14                   13
 Ipswich                   21               31              27                20               14                   11
 – Halifax Jn
 Stowmarket                13               25              14                 6                4                   16
 – Haughley Jn
 Whittlesea –              23               41              27                 8                6                   20
 Peterborough
 (East)

Base Case assumes no development of London Gateway Port by 2014/15
Sensitivity 2 assumes London Gateway Port developed by 2014/15

9.2.6                                                            value for money when their socio-economic
Other issues identi ed in the development of                     bene ts are considered; and which are
the strategy include: on-train crowding into                     necessary to meet gaps identi ed through
Cambridge and future growth on the rural and                     RUS analysis.
inter-urban routes; the need for better train
                                                                 Measures which contribute to the objective
performance; more balanced engineering
                                                                 which have a net nancial cost but are the result
access; the ease of passenger access to the
                                                                 of speci c requests from railway funders.
network (e.g. many car parks are full on all of
the routes and there is a need for improved                 9.3.2
station facilities); and associated issues which            Only the proposal to replace the rolling stock
arise if more capacity is provided, including               used for services between Norwich and
power supply and berthing requirements.                     London Liverpool Street has a nancial case
                                                            for implementation.
9.3 Recommended strategy                                    9.3.3
9.3.1                                                       All of the other measures that are
This RUS seeks to attain effective and ef cient             recommended offer value for money using
use and development of the railway capacity,                DfT appraisal criteria. There are a number of
commensurate with funding and other constraints.            possible interventions which may be brought
It is important to differentiate between:                   forward if additional funding were provided,
    Measures which contribute to the objective              particularly for the increase in passenger
    and which are nancially neutral or bene cial.           service frequency between Norwich and
                                                            Cambridge and new station schemes which
    Measures which contribute to the objective;
                                                            may be funded by developer contributions.
    which have a net nancial cost but are




                                                                                                                         131
      9.3.4                                              Great Eastern routes are planned to be carried
      In the remainder of this chapter the strategy      out. Initial work on the development of the
      is presented in a recommended timeframe for        major capacity scheme on the West Anglia
      delivery. This is followed by an assessment of     route is also planned. The strategy outlined
      the value for money of the proposed strategy.      here is entirely consistent with the Strategic
                                                         Business Plan submission to ORR and is
      Strategy in Control Period 3 (to 2009)
                                                         required to meet the DfT’s HLOS requirements.
      9.3.5
                                                         9.3.8
      The most pressing issue on the routes is
                                                         On the Thameside route more 12-car services
      providing capacity for rapidly increasing
                                                         are proposed to be run on the main line route
      numbers of passengers during the peak and
                                                         during the morning and evening peak periods.
      accommodating freight traf c. A number of
                                                         The platforms already accommodate 12-car
      performance issues have also been raised.
                                                         trains. On the Tilbury Loop and the Ockendon
      Extra track capacity cannot be delivered in
                                                         branch, extending the platforms to handle
      CP3. However, the development work will
                                                         12-car trains is recommended: First, on the
      start for all of the measures proposed for
                                                         Ockendon branch as crowding is worse now
      implementation in CP4. Smaller scale works
                                                         on trains that serve this route; and then on the
      for delivery in CP3 will concentrate on the
                                                         route via Rainham so that longer trains can be
      delivery of performance improvements.
                                                         operated as demand dictates and as rolling
      9.3.6                                              stock becomes available.
      Performance improvement schemes that are
                                                         9.3.9
      recommended are:
                                                         On the GE route, replacement of the rolling
         Alterations to signal spacing at West Ham       stock used on services running between
         in order to allow more trains to call without   Norwich and Liverpool St with new trains is
         affecting performance.                          proposed. The introduction of a modern eet
         Extension of the bay platform at Grays to       of rolling stock suitably con gured to carry
         handle 8-car trains.                            passengers on this important inter-city route
                                                         is recommended. It is proposed to use rolling
         Linespeed improvements between Barking
                                                         stock that is not hauled by a locomotive with a
         and Upminster and on the rural routes.
                                                         DVT unit and it is expected that this can add
         Bi-directional signalling between Marks Tey     around 1,000 seats during the morning peak
         and Colchester.                                 while maintaining levels of passenger comfort
                                                         and providing enough seats for passengers
         Reviewing the Rules of the Plan and
                                                         who now have to stand. It was established in
         adjusting them appropriately to improve the
                                                         the RUS Draft for Consultation that there is a
         robustness of the timetable.
                                                          nancial business case for implementing this
      A number of these items are already in             element of the strategy.
      development.
                                                         9.3.10
      Strategy in Control Period 4 (2009 – 2014)         It is proposed that up to an additional three
      9.3.7                                              trains an hour on the GEML operating between
      During CP4 increasing service frequency on         outer-suburban stations and London Liverpool
      the Great Eastern route and train lengthening      Street are introduced. One additional train an
      on all three routes into London during the         hour would run from Southend and two on the
      morning peak is recommended. This requires         main line to serve Chelmsford and Colchester,
      modest changes to infrastructure. Works to         though the decision on where these trains
      improve performance on the West Anglia and         start in the morning will be a decision for the




132
operator and funder. Paths for these trains         route as the M11 corridor and Stansted Airport
can be released by calling all services on          are developed. It is recommended that all
the main line at Stratford. To accomplish this      remaining platforms on the route are extended
it is proposed that Stratford Platform 10A is       to handle 12-car trains (a number of the busier
extended to accommodate 12-car trains so            stations already have 12-car platforms) and
that the train service frequency increase can       a new island platform be built at Cambridge.
be realised without restricting the quantum         This will allow the exibility to provide
of trains that operate at full (12-car) length.     services where demand dictates and the
Calling all services at Stratford will also         island platform at Cambridge will allow 12-car
improve connectivity by offering interchange        services to operate on both the West Anglia
with London Underground, London Overground          and Great Northern routes. Additional berthing
and DLR services to all passengers on the GE        capacity and upgrades to power supply are
route. This is expected to even out passenger       recommended to facilitate this. Some track
loadings on trains (those that call at Stratford    circuit works are also necessary.
are more crowded than those that do not) and
                                                    9.3.14
alleviate station congestion at Liverpool Street.
                                                    It is proposed that running trains of up to 9-
The extension of the Fambridge Loop on the
                                                    car length on all West Anglia inner-suburban
Southminster branch is also proposed to allow
                                                    services (i.e. Chingford, En eld Town,
the operation of additional 12-car trains from
                                                    Cheshunt via Southbury and Hertford East
Southminster giving the operator the exibility
                                                    services) to accommodate peak demand is
to allocate rolling stock ef ciently to meet
                                                    re-introduced. Shorter trains would continue
demand and ensure that full length trains can
                                                    to serve inner stations off-peak. This will
run on this route. The operation of the extra
                                                    require some minor works at stations along the
trains will require power supply upgrades and
                                                    routes to ensure that modern standards are
additional berthing.
                                                    met though most platforms and the berthing
9.3.11                                              at Chingford can handle 9-car trains already.
Two extra trains an hour on the GE route from       The use of selective door opening (SDO) at
Chadwell Heath to Liverpool St are proposed         Stoke Newington is recommended where a
as well as starting services that currently run     platform extension would otherwise be needed
from Ilford at Chadwell Heath to better serve       requiring extensive work (estimated to cost
passengers at inner-suburban stations. To           around £20 million). It is recommended that
accomplish this, construction of a turn-back        the minor works are carried out and then that
facility at Chadwell Heath is recommended to        the rolling stock is replaced as it comes up
maintain or improve performance.                    for renewal or is cascaded to other routes.
                                                    A eet with SDO capability will be required.
9.3.12
                                                    Consideration should also be given to the
The replacement of the OLE on the GE route
                                                    internal con guration of the rolling stock. High
from Liverpool St to Chelmsford and Southend
                                                    passenger capacity stock (such as that being
is proposed to signi cantly reduce delays.
                                                    built for operation on the NLL) would help
9.3.13                                              meet the predicted increases in passenger
It is proposed that 12-car trains are introduced    numbers on the inner-suburban routes over
on West Anglia outer-suburban services              the longer term and improve train performance
operating between Cambridge and Stansted            at peak times.
Airport and London Liverpool Street. The peak
services running from Cambridge are the most
crowded in the Greater Anglia RUS area and
very high rates of growth are predicted on the




                                                                                                       133
      9.3.15                                                through the TIF and a Section 106 planning
      It is proposed to introduce a shuttle service         agreement with Hutchison Ports UK). Further
      operating between Cheshunt and Seven Sisters          gauge and capacity increases are proposed
      in peak hours as demand necessitates. The             to provide at least ve additional commercially
      building of a power operated turnback at Seven        usable paths a day to the WCML, three on top
      Sisters will be required to facilitate this with      of that between Ipswich and Peterborough
      acceptable performance. The turnback will also        and nine additional usable paths a day to
      serve to improve performance during perturbed         South Yorkshire. This scheme is currently in
      running on the Southbury Loop. The shuttle            development and is funded from the TIF.
      service will permit the provision of four trains an
                                                            9.3.19
      hour at all stations on the Southbury Loop.
                                                            On the cross country services it is
      9.3.16                                                recommended that peak capacity on local
      The strategy recommendations would enlarge            services is increased by the TOCs in line
      the eets of passenger trains operated by c2c          with demand, making use of available rolling
      and ‘one’ railway. Analysis has shown that            stock. The case for increasing service
      additional stabling facilities would be required      frequency to hourly has been examined and
      at Harwich Parkeston Quay, Cambridge (or              it is recommended that this is implemented
      Orient Way or elsewhere in West Anglia)               between Ipswich and Peterborough in
      including CET, tanking and staff facilities.          conjunction with industry funders and a review
      A review of the capacity and provision of             of the timetable to ensure that the quantum
      light maintenance facilities would also be            of cross country freight paths intended by
      appropriate across all routes in the region.          the proposed upgrade are delivered. Moving
                                                            the Ipswich – Lowestoft service to hourly has
      9.3.17
                                                            also been examined but this improvement
      The removal of at-grade crossings on the
                                                            requires detailed assessment of level
      WAML to improve performance on the route
                                                            crossings. This work is in hand, but it is not
      and as part of the early works for four-tracking
                                                            possible for frequency enhancements on the
      the route is recommended. The removal
                                                            East Suffolk Line to be a recommendation
      and replacement where appropriate of three
                                                            in this RUS in absence of the study results.
      level crossings between Tottenham Hale and
                                                            Further improvements to services between
      Waltham Cross has been evaluated (using
                                                            Cambridge and Norwich have been looked at
      the RSSB model) and found to demonstrate
                                                            but additional infrastructure would be required
      value for money as a stand-alone road/
                                                            to enable these services to operate. However,
      rail performance scheme. As a result, it is
                                                            if road pricing is to be implemented in Norwich
      recommended that the level crossings are
                                                            and/or Cambridge additional funding would
      removed/replaced regardless of whether
                                                            be available to provide increased capacity to
      funding is committed for the capacity
                                                            serve these cities.
      enhancement proposed in CP5.
                                                            9.3.20
      9.3.18
                                                            During CP4 further development and
      It is proposed that freight growth is
                                                            implementation of performance projects,
      accommodated on both the GEML and on the
                                                            including the doubling of Haughley Junction,
      cross country route. The opportunity to run
                                                            removing the restrictions on Class 6 freight
      more trains via the GEML is limited as many
                                                            trains and the full commissioning of Ely West
      of the off-peak freight paths (two an hour) are
                                                            Curve is recommended. The development of
      already used and it is therefore anticipated
                                                            further small scale enhancements to improve
      that growth will be focussed on the cross
                                                            train performance to support meeting the
      country route. Gauge clearance and works at
                                                            HLOS reliability speci cation is also proposed.
      Ipswich Yard are already committed (funded




134
9.3.21                                              that is anticipated as the M11 corridor and
Access to the Network was also highlighted          Stansted Airport are developed.
as a gap in the RUS. A range of measures
                                                    9.3.24
is proposed to improve access to the railway
                                                    The strategy recommendations would enlarge
including: providing additional car parking; and
                                                    the eets of passenger trains operated by
building new stations to serve developments
                                                    c2c and ‘one’ railway. Analysis has shown
on the fringes of existing settlements, subject
                                                    that additional stabling facilities would be
to additional funding being raised – especially
                                                    required at Gidea Park and Ilford, in line with
from developers and train operators.
                                                    the proposals in the Crossrail project, including
Strategy in Control Period 5 (2014 – 2019)          CET, tanking and staff facilities. A review of the
                                                    capacity and provision of light maintenance
9.3.22
                                                    facilities would also be appropriate across all
On each of the routes into London the
                                                    routes in the region.
continuation of train lengthening through CP5
to deliver additional capacity to accommodate       9.3.25
increasing passenger demand is                      Service frequency improvements to the
recommended. It is anticipated that most train      Norwich – Cambridge service (to half hourly)
lengthening in CP5 will be during the shoulder      has been assessed. The work showed that a
peak hours (as most or all high-peak trains will    half hourly service would not offer value for
be running at full length by then) and so will be   money until Ely North Junction is doubled and
less effective at providing for passenger needs     so it is proposed that the service should be
than the train lengthening proposed for CP4.        considered for implementation when renewal
                                                    of the junction is due (during CP5).
9.3.23
On West Anglia the running of up to an              9.3.26
additional six trains an hour at peak times is      Further upgrading work is recommended
proposed. Two of these would run through to         on the cross country route for freight during
London Liverpool Street and four would run          CP5. This work will include improvements
to Stratford as an alternative terminus. It is      at Leicester and will enable at least 14 daily
anticipated that this will serve the proposed       paths to be available between Ipswich and the
Stratford City Development, relieve crowding        WCML.
on services to Liverpool St by providing a link
                                                    9.3.27
to the LUL Victoria Line at Tottenham Hale
                                                    Crossrail is due to be operational during CP5.
and enhancing connectivity by providing new
                                                    A key feature of this scheme is the delivery
links to the LUL Central and Jubilee Lines
                                                    of 10-car running on GE inner services and
and the DLR at Stratford. It is recommended
                                                    the running of these on new lines through
that the WAML route via Tottenham Hale is
                                                    central London. The RUS supports the outputs
four-tracked between Coppermill Junction
                                                    of Crossrail and the rail industry is working
and Broxbourne Junction to provide adequate
                                                    with the scheme’s promoters to ensure that
capacity to facilitate the extra services. A
                                                    capacity is preserved for other passenger and
second rail tunnel will need to be built and an
                                                    freight services alongside those planned to
additional platform edge provided to increase
                                                    use the new infrastructure. A further advantage
capacity into and out of Stansted Airport so
                                                    of the scheme is the capacity that will be
allowing some extra trains to run between
                                                    released between Stratford and Liverpool St.
the airport and Liverpool St. This proposal
provides a long term solution to the predicted
increasing passenger demand on this route




                                                                                                         135
      Strategy after Control Period 5 (from 2019)        9.4 Passenger service proposals
      9.3.28                                             9.4.1
      The capacity released on the GE route from         In the RUS Draft for Consultation document
      the diversion of inner-suburban services to        the value for money of options was assessed.
      Crossrail could be used to continue West           The options have been re ned and developed
      Anglia services to Liverpool St via Stratford      to formulate the proposed strategy and Atkins
      (though bene ts from this have not been            Transport Planning have assessed the value
      included in the assessment of the business         for money of the key elements of the strategy
      case of the strategy). This would require          using DfT appraisal criteria for each of the
      moving the lines across at Stratford or the        key corridors in the RUS area. The business
      construction of a grade separated junction to      case has been assessed on each of the
      link the WA route with the ‘E’ lines. Along with   three key corridors. It was found, on each
      the four-tracking (that has been established       corridor independently and as a combined
      offers value for money by itself) this could       strategy, that the bene ts outweighed the
      be used to provide a signi cant number of          costs by at least two to one. The full costs of
      additional inner-suburban services to              the recommendations have been taken into
      operate from West Anglia to Liverpool St.          account including the costs associated with
      The construction of the proposed Hall Farm         providing berthing, suf cient to accommodate
      Curve to link the Chingford route to Stratford     the larger eets, and upgrades to the power
      would permit the running of Chingford services     supply on each route that is required to
      to Liverpool St via Stratford and release          facilitate the service enhancements that are
      capacity through Hackney Downs and                 recommended.
      Bethnal Green.                                     Summary of strategy by route
      9.3.29                                             9.4.2
      On the GE outer services the opportunity to        The proposals for meeting passenger growth
      increase capacity at the busiest times of the      on each route have been evaluated and the
      day will be limited once the options proposed      business case for each route is presented
      in CP4 have been implemented. It is proposed       in the following tables with summaries of the
      to investigate alternatives to meet longer term    concept, infrastructure requirements and the
      passenger demand growth. One proposal put          impacts of the schemes.
      forward during consultation originated in the
      London to Ipswich Multi – Modal Study which        9.4.3

      suggested four-tracking the line between           The strategy for the Thameside route is

      Ipswich and Chelmsford and then building           summarised below:

      a new line across to meet the LUL Central
      Line. This would in turn need to be enhanced
      to allow additional services to run through
      to Leytonstone. At Leytonstone the services
      could then access Crossrail 2 (once it has
      been built) and run on to central London. No
      development work has been undertaken for
      this proposal as part of this RUS.

      9.3.30
      As freight growth continues further upgrading
      will also be required on the cross country route
      to remove further bottlenecks.




136
 Assessment of the strategy for the Thameside route

Concept
The recommended strategy for handling the predicted number of passengers on this route during the peak
which has been assessed for value for money using PLANET and DfT appraisal criteria is:
   Continued train lengthening on the main line route to full length (12-car)
   Train lengthening on services running via Ockendon to 12-car
   Train lengthening on services running via the Tilbury Loop to 12-car
Operational analysis
This strategy will require changes to the operation of Fenchurch Street.
Infrastructure required
Platforms will need to be lengthened on the Tilbury Loop and Ockendon branch and platform equipment
may be required to assist in the dispatch of longer trains. It is recommended that the platforms are
lengthened on the branch and loop in CP4 and that 12-car services begin operation before 2012 on these
routes. Minor power works are also required. Signalling alterations are required at West Ham to enable the
number of calls to be increased.
Demand and crowding
Peak passenger numbers are predicted to increase by 1.8 percent a year on average to 2026 with much of the
growth occurring before 2012 (see illustration below). The model predicts that the additional capacity proposed
will be taken up very quickly. In part, this represents some passengers switching from LUL District Line services
when c2c increases capacity on the parallel service. The proposed capacity is adequate to meet predicted
demand through CP4 and CP5 while maintaining average peak load factors. By 2016 crowding is predicted to
be below current levels on trains routed via the Ockendon branch, which is where crowding is currently worst.
The demand forecast is shown in the illustration below along with seated and total capacity.


 Thameside: AM Peak Demand and Capacity (2004 - 2026)

   Key

              Capacity
              Seats
              Passengers




  50000

  45000

  40000

  35000

  30000

  25000

  20000

  15000

  10000

   5000

         0
               Base            2007            2011            2016             2021            2026



Freight impact
There will be no restriction on the operation of freight assuming growth in line with Freight RUS/Port
development projections for freight traf c increases on Thameside.

                                                                                                                    137
        Assessment of the strategy for the Thameside route (continued)

        Business case
       The strategy was modelled in PLANET and outputs were valued following DfT appraisal guidance. The
       results are shown in the table:
                                                               £ million (2002 PV)
       Cost (PV)
       Investment Cost                                         (30)
       Operating Cost                                          (345)
       Fuel Duty                                               (6)
       Revenue                                                 130
       Total Cost                                              252
       Quanti ed Bene ts
       Rail user bene ts                                       627
       Non user bene ts                                        216
       Total Quanti ed Bene ts                                 843
       Quanti ed BCR                                           3.3
       Conclusion
       This option allows trains to be lengthened to suit the rates of development on the route and offers exibility in
       approach for meeting predicted passenger demand. Train lengthening on the main line route will bring modest
       relief to passengers travelling on 12-car trains that already run full. The strategy meets predicted passenger
       growth and has a high value for money business case. The business case would improve further if additional
       peak hour services can be substituted for some shoulder peak train lengthening, provided performance can be
       maintained (this is thought to be possible given the infrastructure/performance improvements proposed between
       Barking and Upminster and at West Ham). These extra trains would also meet the capacity requirements in 2026,
       which result from a combination of forecast regional growth and the bene ts of capacity provided in earlier years by
       the RUS strategies. The bene ts of these additional trains have not been included in the RUS modelling.


      9.4.4
      The strategy for the Great Eastern route is summarised below:

        Assessment of strategy for the Great Eastern route

       Concept
       The recommended strategy for handling the predicted number of passengers on this route during the peak
       which has been assessed for value for money using PLANET and DfT appraisal criteria is:
          Replace the inter-city sets that operate between Norwich and London with new rolling stock to provide
          more seats on these services while maintaining inter-city comfort and ambience. This will provide
          around an extra thousand seats over the morning peak period each day.
          Call all services on the GE outer and Anglia inter-city services at Stratford, providing a direct link between
          Norwich, Ipswich and Stratford and improve connectivity between the East of England and London Docklands.
          Run three additional 12-car main line trains in the high peak hour. These are assumed (in the business
          case analysis) to run from Colchester, Chelmsford and Southend but there is exibility to start at
          different stations to provide capacity where it is needed and t with other operational requirements. It is
          expected that a similar service pattern will run in the shoulder peak (but probably at 8-car length)
          Increase service frequency on GE Inner services. During CP4 the running of an extra two trains an
          hour is proposed during the morning and evening peaks and further increasing service frequency by
          another train an hour in CP5 (though re-timetabling of the service group would be required to achieve
          this without severe performance deterioration). Alternatively selective train lengthening to 10 cars may
          be possible once platform lengthening has been undertaken for the Crossrail project (see below)
          GE Inner services are expected to be lengthened to 10 cars through the Crossrail project, which is
          committed for delivery in 2017.


138
 Assessment of strategy for the Great Eastern route (continued)

Operational analysis
The analysis undertaken on the strategy has shown that there will be a small deterioration in performance
of outer-suburban services as a result of running the additional trains in the busiest hour of the morning
peak. This will be mitigated to a certain extent by calling all trains at Stratford, which improves AM Peak
performance, in the RailSys model. Increasing service frequency on inner-suburban services is predicted to
cause a slight worsening in performance, but this will be mitigated to a certain extent by the provision of the
proposed new turnback at Chadwell Heath, especially when running is disrupted.
Infrastructure required
The service enhancements necessitate the extension of Platform 10A at Stratford, the extension of the loop
at Fambridge to allow more 12-car running from Southminster, provision of a turnback at Chadwell Heath,
power supply upgrades and additional berthing.
Demand and crowding
The phased introduction of the proposed service frequency increases through CP4 and CP5 will enable
predicted demand growth to be met while improving average load factors for passengers using services
during peak hours. The introduction of Crossrail services in 2017 will enable demand on the metro services
to be met in the long term. The demand forecast and the modelled capacity changes are illustrated below.
Average increases in peak passenger numbers of around 1.5 percent a year are predicted in the model
over the twenty years but with higher rates of increase (more like those seen over the last two or three
years) until 2012.


   Great Eastern: AM Peak Demand and Capacity (2004 - 2026)

    Key

               Capacity
               Seats
               Passengers




    120000



    100000



     80000



     60000



     40000



     20000



          0
                 Base            2007            2011            2016            2021            2026




Freight impact
The additional peak services and ECS paths in the proposed RUS timetables have been checked against
freight paths and no clashes have been found. The quantum of off-peak freight paths (two an hour) will be
maintained on the GE under the RUS assumptions.




                                                                                                                  139
        Assessment of strategy for the Great Eastern route (continued)

       Business case
       The strategy was modelled using the PLANET and MOIRA models. Outputs were valued following DfT
       appraisal guidance. The results are shown in the table:

                                                           £ million (2002 PV)
       Cost (PV)
       Investment Cost                                     (65)
       Operating Cost                                      (828)
       Fuel Duty                                           (16)
       Revenue                                             609
       Total Cost                                          300
       Quanti ed Bene ts
       Rail user bene ts                                   1,197
       Non user bene ts                                    516
       Total Quanti ed Bene ts                             1,713
       Quanti ed BCR                                       5.7
       Conclusion
       The proposals allow passenger capacity to be increased by running more trains and replacing rolling stock
       on the Norwich inter-city services. The strategy meets forecast passenger and freight growth, delivers a
       good business case and is complementary to Crossrail.



      9.4.5
      The strategy for the West Anglia route is summarised below:

        Assessment of strategy for the West Anglia route

       Concept
       The recommended strategy for handling the predicted number of passengers on this route during the peak
       which has been assessed for value for money using PLANET and DfT appraisal criteria is:
          Train lengthening on inner-suburban services to 9-car length in the peak with new high capacity rolling
          stock with SDO (to avoid the high cost of remodelling at Stoke Newington).
          The re-introduction of a shuttle service between Cheshunt and Seven Sisters to increase service
          frequency to a minimum of four trains an hour at all stations on the Southbury Loop with a power
          operated turnback at Seven Sisters to maintain performance.
          Train lengthening on outer-suburban services from Cambridge and Stansted Airport to 12-car length
          Increasing service frequency on the main line route by six trains an hour – two to Liverpool St via
          Hackney Downs; four to Stratford.
       Operational analysis
       RailSys modelling indicates that running six additional trains an hour in the peak will result in a small
       deterioration in performance north of Broxbourne Junction and south of Coppermill Junction where capacity
       increases are not proposed.
       Infrastructure required
       This strategy requires some work on the inner stations to meet modern standards for 9-car working. Work
       will also be required to extend a number of platforms at outer-suburban stations to handle 12-car trains and
       a new island platform is required at Cambridge to facilitate 12-car running on this and the GN route. Power
       supply upgrades and additional berthing is needed. Four-tracking of the main line route between Coppermill
       Junction and Broxbourne Junction is necessary in CP5.




140
 Assessment of strategy for the West Anglia route (continued)

Demand and crowding
Peak passenger numbers are expected to be driven higher by planned increases in the housing stock (and
thus population) on the M11/West Anglia corridor. In the long term peak passenger numbers are expected
to grow by around 2.5 – 3.0 percent a year though this can only be realised if peak capacity is increased
as some trains are now so busy that more passengers cannot board them. The peak demand forecast
and the modelled capacity changes are illustrated below. The introduction of longer trains through CP4
will accommodate the predicted increases in peak passengers while maintaining or improving average
passenger load factors. Additional services in CP5 facilitated by the four-tracking of the Lea Valley route will
enable predicted demand growth to be met over the long term.


   West Anglia: AM Peak Demand and Capacity (2004 - 2026)

    Key

               Capacity
               Seats
               Passengers




    80000


    70000


    60000


    50000


    40000


    30000


    20000


    10000


          0
                 Base           2007            2011            2016            2021            2026



Freight impact
The train lengthening proposed for CP4 will have no impact on freight. An indicative timetable for the
four-tracking of the route still includes an hourly freight path along the West Anglia route.




                                                                                                                   141
       Assessment of strategy for the West Anglia route (continued)

      Business case
      The strategy was modelled using the PLANET and MOIRA models. Outputs were valued following DfT
      appraisal guidance. Atkins have also evaluated the wider economic bene ts of the strategy using the same
      methodology as in the Thameslink business case. This is an assessment of the bene ts of the increased
      connectivity to the economy. The results are shown in the table, which differentiates between the standard
      transport appraisal and the BCR including the wider economic bene ts:

                                                          £ million (2002 PV)
      Cost (PV)
      Investment Cost                                     (1,144)
      Operating Cost                                      (899)
      Fuel Duty                                           (16)
      Revenue                                             1,146
      Total Cost                                          914
      Quanti ed Bene ts
      Rail user bene ts                                   1,537
      Non user bene ts                                    601
      Total Quanti ed Bene ts                             2,137
      Quanti ed BCR                                       2.3
      Wider Economic Bene ts (WEBs)                       307
      BCR (including WEBs)                                2.7
      Conclusion
      This strategy allows capacity to be increased by a combination of train lengthening in CP4 and increased
      service frequency in CP5. The strategy provides enough capacity to accommodate the predicted increase
      in peak passengers. The predicted revenues exceed the operating costs of the proposal and there is a high
      value for money business case. The proposal is complementary to the Government’s policy of increasing
      housing stock along the West Anglia/M11 corridor and the development of Stansted Airport. The proposal
        ts well with Crossrail because the capacity released on the Great Eastern could be used to allow through
      services from West Anglia to London Liverpool Street via Stratford.




142
9.4.6                                         evaluated as a representation of the RUS
The combined strategy for meeting passenger   strategy for passenger services introduced
growth on the Greater Anglia routes has       in CP4 and CP5 are shown in Table 9.6. The
been evaluated using the PLANET and           second table shows the economic evaluation
MOIRA models and DfT appraisal criteria.      of the strategy as appraised by Atkins using
The measures that Atkins Transport Planning   DfT criteria.



 Table 9.6: Measures evaluated in the RUS strategy for passenger services

                                                                Modelled to operate in

                                                                CP4                    CP5

 Thameside
 Main line train lengthening
 Ockendon branch train lengthening
 Tilbury Loop train lengthening
 Great Eastern
 Replace rolling stock on Norwich services
 +3 tph on outer-suburban services
 +2 tph on inner-suburban services
 +3 tph on inner-suburban services
 Call all services at Stratford
 Hourly Ipswich – Peterborough all day
 West Anglia
 Outer-suburban train lengthening
 Inner-suburban train lengthening
 Seven Sisters shuttle
 + 6 tph main line services




                                                                                             143
       Value for money of Greater Anglia RUS passenger service proposals

      Financial and economic analysis
      The combined strategy for all routes has been modelled in PLANET and MOIRA. The outputs were valued
      following DfT appraisal guidance. The results are shown in the table:

                                                                 £ million (2002 PV)
      Cost (PV)
      Investment Cost                                            (1,240)
      Operating Cost                                             (2,073)
      Fuel Duty                                                  (33)
      Revenue                                                    1,676
      Total Cost                                                 (1,669)
      Quanti ed Bene ts
      Rail user bene ts                                          3,345
      Non user bene ts                                           1,170
      Total Quanti ed Bene ts                                    4,515
      Quanti ed BCR                                              2.7
      Wider Economic Bene ts (WEBs)                              307
      BCR (including WEBs)                                       2.9
       Conclusion
      This strategy allows capacity to be increased by a combination of new rolling stock (offering higher capacity)
      and the operation of more and longer trains. The strategy meets forecast growth, delivers a high value for
      money business case and is compatible with and complementary to Crossrail.
      Assessment includes the full estimated costs of all proposed schemes to the end of CP5 and makes no
      account of potential third party contributions which are anticipated to be substantial, contributing towards the
      cost of increasing capacity to Stansted Airport and Stratford for example. Such contributions increase the
      BCR using the DfT value for money method for calculating it.



                   9.5 Freight schemes                                        Considering re-modelling facilities at key

                   9.5.1                                                      locations, such as Ipswich and Leicester,

                   The following strategy to meet freight growth is           when they are due for renewal with a view

                   recommended:                                               to facilitating the running of longer freight
                                                                              trains.
                      Upgrading the Ipswich – Ely – Peterborough
                      – Nuneaton route to allow for the carriage of           Upgrading the Barking – South Tottenham

                      high cube containers on standard wagons                 – Gospel Oak – Willesden route to cater for

                      and to increase capacity to accommodate the             predicted increases in freight traf c from

                      forecast growth in freight traf c. The GEML             the Thameside route.

                      will continue to be a key freight route but the      9.5.2
                      scope for further increases in freight traf c on     All of these schemes have been the subject
                      that route will be increasingly limited.             of business case analysis and all have been

                      Removal of restrictions on heavy freight             evaluated as offering value for money. The

                      traf c on the cross country route should             gauge clearance of the cross country route

                      be lifted as soon as is practicable. This is         (together with initial capacity works) is now a

                      being examined along with the track and              committed scheme with funding from the TIF

                      structures renewal programmes.                       and through a Section 106 agreement with




144
Hutchison Ports (UK). The remaining work
has been appraised and the cases for funding
through the TIF are currently being worked up.

9.5.3
The impact of these measures for freight,
when taken alongside the recommendations of
the Cross London RUS2 and the Freight RUS3,
is shown in Tables 9.7 (for 2014/15) and 9.8
(for 2023).




  Table 9.7

 Section               Additional            Extra paths   Gap in paths    Additional       Gap in paths
                       paths required        in East       required in     paths required   required in
                       by 2014/15            Coast Ports   2014/15 (from   by 2014/15       2014/15
                       (from table           timetable     table 5.12)     (with 4-10
                       5.12)                 (with RUS                     diverted to
                                             Phase 1                       cross country
                                             works)                        route)

 Manor Park            14-20                 10            4-10            -                -
 – Ilford
 Maryland              18-22                 25            -               -                -
 – Forest Gate
 Jn
 Shen eld              14-20                 10            4-10            -                -
 Ipswich               14-20                 10            4-10            -                -
 – Halifax Jn
 Stowmarket            4-6                   17            -               8-16             -
 – Haughley Jn
 Whittlesea –          6-8                   17            -               10-18            0-1
 Peterborough
 (East)




2 Published August 2006, established October 2006.
3 Published March 2007, established May 2007.


                                                                                                           145
      Table 9.8

      Section            Additional       Extra paths       Gap in          Additional        Additional      Gap in
                         paths            in East           paths           capacity          paths           paths
                         required by      Coast Ports       required in     provided          required by     required in
                         2023 (from       timetable         2023 (from      by RUS            2023 (with 3    2023
                         table 5.13)      (with RUS         table 5.13)     phase 2           extra paths
                                          Phase 1                           works (by         diverted
                                          works)                            2023)             to cross
                                                                                              country
                                                                                              route)

      Manor Park         12               10                2               -                 -               -
      – Ilford
      Maryland           21               25                -               -                 -               -
      – Forest Gate
      Jn
      Shen eld           13               10                3               -                 -               -
      Ipswich            11               10                1               -                 -               -
      – Halifax Jn
      Stowmarket         16               17                -               9                 3               -
      – Haughley Jn
      Whittlesea –       20               17                3               9                 6               -
      Peterborough
      (East)


                 9.5.4                                                    Output Speci cation in July 2007.
                 The Crossrail project (section 6.3.1) is expected        The work undertaken for this RUS on
                 to be operational in 2017. The complex inter-            development of the cross country route will
                 relationship between Crossrail and other                 be taken further in the East Midlands RUS,
                 services is, at the time of writing, still being         which covers the route west of Peterborough.
                 evaluated. The rail industry is working with
                 the scheme’s promoters to ensure that these              9.6 Contingent projects
                 capacity issues are resolved for other services          9.6.1 Crossrail
                 alongside the planned Crossrail services; in
                                                                          9.6.1.1
                 particular the quantum of paths for freight
                                                                          The Crossrail project will have a considerable
                 identi ed via London in the tables above.
                                                                          impact on the area covered by the RUS.
                 9.5.5                                                    As planned it will assist in providing additional
                 The two key factors in the long term freight             passenger capacity on a number of routes
                 strategy for this area are therefore the                 covered by the RUS and has the following
                 development and increased use of the                     synergies with both the RUS and TfL’s
                 cross country route from the Haven Ports                 2025 Vision:
                 to the Midlands, and of the Gospel Oak
                                                                                On the West Anglia route, Crossrail could
                 – Barking line for traf c from Thameside.
                                                                                enable services that terminate at Stratford
                 These conclusions are being fed into the
                                                                                to run through to Liverpool St. This would
                 development of national strategies for freight
                                                                                involve moving the existing tracks across
                 growth funded from a variety of sources such
                                                                                or building a yover to bring the services
                 as the Transport Innovation Fund, external
                                                                                over onto the current GE ‘E’ lines, which
                 funding and the Strategic Freight Network
                                                                                will have been diverted into Crossrail.
                 funding set out in the Government’s High Level




146
   The impact of the West Anglia link would          9.7 Ongoing workstreams
   be a way of increasing capacity into              9.7.1
   Central London directly whilst serving            There are a number of workstreams that have
   Stratford and Docklands at the same time.         been on-going while the RUS was developed.
   On the Great Eastern, Crossrail will              These will continue and are summarised below:
   not only increase suburban capacity by               The RUS has identi ed a number of areas
   operating longer trains in additional to             in which engineering access could be
   some residual Liverpool St services, but             improved.
   will also give the potential to move some
   outer services across on to the former ‘E’           Berthing and power supply upgrades are

   lines between Stratford and Liverpool St             required. In addition rolling stock and depots

   thereby releasing capacity or improving              are being considered nationally within the

   performance on this section of the route.            Network RUS (workstream 3). The provision
                                                        of a signi cant quantity of additional rolling
9.6.1.2                                                 stock across the nation over the next 10
The complex inter-relationships between                 years will create a requirement to re-
Crossrail and the future capacity requirements          evaluate the deployment of current rolling
of other operators are still being evaluated at         stock, and the quantity and location of
the time of writing.                                    stabling and maintenance facilities.
9.6.2 Thameslink                                        The work carried out in the development
9.6.2.1                                                 of this strategy has emphasised the
The Thameslink project, like Crossrail,                 importance of (and the need to improve)
seeks to provide improved journey                       passenger access to the network.
opportunities across the centre of the capital.         A number of areas were considered
The project is designed to improve the links            including improved car parking.
between the lines leading into London Bridge            A number of performance improvement
and those running north to Bedford and                  projects have been identi ed in the RUS
Peterborough/Cambridge/Kings Lynn. The                  and further schemes have also been put
project has completed its passage through               forward in the SBP.
the planning process and is now funded.

9.6.2.2
The project will be completed towards the end
of the RUS period. However, its impact on the
RUS will be more limited as it is only the section
to Cambridge/Kings Lynn, which will have
some impact on services from Cambridge on
the West Anglia corridor, within the RUS. The
current plans by FCC to extend train lengths
on the Cambridge – Kings Cross corridor
re ect the plans for this corridor contained in
the Thameslink plan. In the assessment of the
value for money in the strategy the demand
models have been updated to include the
proposed Thameslink services.




                                                                                                         147
      9.8 Alternative growth scenarios
      9.8.1
      The strategy is robust to higher growth than
      predicted in that it would be possible to
      lengthen more trains so long as additional
      rolling stock were provided. It may be dif cult
      to bring forward (to CP4) the delivery of the
      major capacity enhancement on West Anglia
      which would allow train frequency to be
      increased. The demand forecasts used in this
      RUS represent the growth projections derived
      from the housing, population and employment
      forecasts contained in the Regional Spatial
      Strategy and the London Plan. Stakeholders
      generally agree that growth is unlikely to
      be lower than the forecast though there are
      a number of sensitivities which may drive
      rail passenger numbers higher and the rate
      of increase over the last couple of years
      has been more than twice the average
      projected forward (including the impact of the
      passenger capacity that is proposed). The
      diagrams in the preceding section show the
      level of demand forecast in the RUS and the
      amount of additional capacity provided by
      the interventions recommended in the RUS.
      These charts show that the strategy provides
      suf cient capacity to meet forecast growth and
      the estimated average load factors that would
      be delivered on the route.

      9.8.2
      Should demand growth not meet the forecast
      then interventions could be delayed but in
      some cases – particularly the West Anglia
      outers and the Great Eastern inners – current
      levels of crowding necessitate additional
      passenger capacity already. Indeed, there is
      little scope for growth on some service groups
      unless additional peak capacity is provided.
      Additional track capacity will also be required
      to provide additional services to Stansted
      Airport to allow suf cient trains to run to handle
      predicted demand for travel to the airport after
      it has been expanded.




148
149
      10. Next Steps



          10.1 Introduction                                 10.4 High Level Output
          10.1.1                                            Speci cation (HLOS)
          This RUS will become established 60 days          10.4.1
          after publication unless the Of ce of Rail        In July 2007, the Department for Transport
          Regulation (ORR) issues a notice of objection     issued its HLOS to de ne the outputs it wishes
          within this period.                               to buy from the rail network during the next
                                                            Control Period, i.e. 2009–2014. This HLOS,
          10.1.2
                                                            and an accompanying Statement of Funds
          The recommendations of a RUS form an
                                                            Available, will be used by ORR to set the
          input to decisions made by industry funders
                                                            funding requirements of Network Rail over that
          and suppliers on, for example, franchise
                                                            period, taking into account other obligations
          speci cations, investment plans and the
                                                            and funders’ reasonable requirements.
          Government’s HLOS.
                                                            Network Rail have prepared the SBP (in
          10.2 Network Rail Route Plans                     conjunction with industry stakeholders) to
                                                            present the industry’s response to the HLOS.
          10.2.1
                                                            The recommendations of this RUS, where
          The Route Plans for Network Rail Strategic
                                                            they fall within the 2009–2014 period, are
          Routes 5 (West Anglia Main Line), 6 (North
                                                            part of the rail industry’s recommendations
          London Line and Thameside) and 7 (Great
                                                            incorporated within the SBP for funding via the
          Eastern Main Line) together include all the
                                                            Access Charges Review.
          routes covered by this RUS. The Route
          Plans were published alongside the Strategic      10.5 Ongoing access to the network
          Business Plan (SBP) in November 2007, and
                                                            10.5.1
          are updated regularly. They list all signi cant
                                                            This RUS will also help to inform the allocation
          planned investment on the route, including
                                                            of capacity on the network through application
          scheduled renewals as well as committed and
                                                            of the normal Network Code processes.
          aspirational enhancements. Those published
          last March cite some improvements included        10.5.2
          in the RUS; the next edition will incorporate     The Crossrail Bill, which is currently
          the RUS conclusions as well as the                progressing through Parliament, contains
          recommendations in the SBP (see below).           provisions to disapply the normal Network
                                                            Code access allocation process with regard
          10.3 Access Charges Review                        to Crossrail services. If these powers become
          10.3.1                                            law, are used and result in changes to
          The ORR review of Network Rail’s funding          passenger or freight services, then a review of
          requirements and access charges for the           the RUS conclusions might be necessary.
          period 2009–2014 will conclude in 2008. This
          RUS has informed Network Rail’s input to the
          review and this is discussed below.




150
10.6 Review
10.6.1
Network Rail is obliged to maintain a RUS
once it is established. This requires a review
using the same principles and methods used
to develop the RUS:

   when circumstances have changed;

   when so directed by ORR; or

   when (for whatever reason) the
   conclusions may no longer be valid.




                                                 151
      11. Appendices



          Appendix A:   Rural Routes – Loadings on busiest trains

          Appendix B:   Berthing summary

          Appendix C:   Congested stations and station facilities data

          Appendix D:   Delay data

          Appendix E:   Freight path analysis by commodity

          Appendix F:   GEML capacity utilisation

          Appendix G:   Glossary of terms




152
Appendix A – Rural Routes – Loadings on busiest trains

                                   Max. Load     Capacity    Most Loaded Section

 Norwich – Cambridge
 16.40                             124           110         Norwich – Attleborough
 17.35                             116           110         Norwich – Attleborough
 18.40                             73            110         Norwich – Attleborough
 Cambridge – Norwich
 07.05                             112           110         Wymondham – Norwich
 16.12                             97            110         Cambridge – Ely
 17.12                             122           110         Cambridge – Ely

Source: ‘one’ conductor counts Sept 2006


                                   Max. Load     Capacity    Most Loaded Section

 Ipswich – Cambridge
 06.13                                     62          65    Ipswich – Bury St Edmunds
 06.52                                     138         144   Ipswich – Stowmarket
 18.16                                     60          65    Ipswich – Stowmarket
 Cambridge – Ipswich
 15.43                                     76          65    C’bridge – Bury St Edmunds
 16.43                                     108         144   Cambridge – Newmarket
 17.43                                     97          144   Cambridge – Newmarket

Source: ‘one’ conductor counts Sept 2006


                                   Max. Load     Capacity    Most Loaded Section

 Ipswich – Peterborough
 16.02                                     58          189   Ipswich – Bury St Edmunds
 18.03                                     74          189   Ipswich – Bury St Edmunds
 Peterborough – Ipswich
 07.52                                     74          189   Stowmarket – Ipswich

Source: ‘one’ conductor counts Sept 2006




                                                                                          153
                                         Max. Load   Capacity   Most Loaded Section

       Lowestoft – Norwich
       07.51                             155         189        Reedham – Norwich
       08.43                             87          144        Brundall – Norwich
       17.48                             85          144        Reedham – Norwich
       Norwich – Lowestoft
       08.57                             68          144        Norwich – Brundall
       15.57                             92          144        Norwich – Reedham
       16.57                             134         144        Norwich – Reedham

      Source: ‘one’ conductor counts Sept 2006


                                         Max. Load   Capacity   Most Loaded Section

       Gt Yarmouth – Norwich
       08.17                             113         144        Brundall – Norwich
       09.17                             94          144        Brundall – Norwich
       16.17                             106         189        Brundall – Norwich
       Norwich – Gt Yarmouth
       16.40                             77          144        Norwich – Brundall
       17.36                             108         144        Norwich – Brundall
       18.40                             70          189        Norwich – Brundall

      Source: ‘one’ conductor counts Sept 2006


                                         Max. Load   Capacity   Most Loaded Section

       Sheringham – Norwich
       08.25                             82          144        Sheringham – Cromer
       09.46                             79          144        North Walsham – Norwich
       Norwich – Sheringham
       07.15                             88          144        Cromer – Sheringham
       14.45                             81          144        Norwich – Wroxham
       17.45                             103         144        Norwich – Wroxham

      Source: ‘one’ conductor counts Sept 2006


                                         Max. Load   Capacity   Most Loaded Section

       Felixstowe – Ipswich
       07.51                             41          65         Wester eld – Ipswich
       Ipswich – Felixstowe
       08.26                             46          65         Ipswich – Derby Rd
       17.26                             58          65         Ipswich – Derby Rd

      Source: ‘one’ conductor counts Sept 2006



154
                                   Max. Load   Capacity   Most Loaded Section

 Lowestoft – Ipswich
 06.43                             111         187        Wester eld – Ipswich
 08.58                             93          187        Wester eld – Ipswich
 Ipswich – Lowestoft
 17.02                             107         187        Ipswich – Wester eld

Source: ‘one’ conductor counts Sept 2006


                                   Max. Load   Capacity   Most Loaded Section

 Cambridge – Ely/Peterborough
 07.27                             104         122        Whittlesea – Peterborough
 16.04                             147         196        Cambridge – Ely
 17.03                             210         122        Cambridge – Waterbeach
 17.49                             129         189        Cambridge – Waterbeach
 Peterborough/Ely – Cambridge
 07.10                             168         122        Ely – Cambridge
 08.31                             141         122        Ely – Cambridge
 17.18                             162         122        Peterborough – Whittlesea

Source: Network Rail counts January 2007


                                   Max. Load   Capacity   Most Loaded Section

 Norwich – Peterborough
 07.57                             169         196        March – Peterborough
 Peterborough – Norwich
 06.27                             116         196        Wymondham – Norwich

Source: Network Rail counts January 2007




                                                                                      155
      Rural Routes – Graphs of loadings across the day (Source ‘one’ conducter counts)




         Cambridge – Ipswich

           Key

                 Seats
                 Load




         200




         150




         100




          50




           0
                 6:43    7:43   8:43   9:43   10:43 11:43 12:43 13:43 14:43 15:43 16:43 17:43 18:43 19:45 20:45 22:43




         Ipswich – Cambridge

           Key

                 Seats
                 Load




         200




         150




         100




          50




           0
                 5:10    6:13   6:52   8:16   9:16   10:16 11:16 12:16 13:16 14:16 15:16 16:16 17:16 18:16 19:16 21:16




156
Cambridge – Norwich

 Key

       Seats
       Load




200




150




100




 50




  0
       7:05    8:13   9:12 10:12 11:12 12:12 13:12 14:12 15:12 16:12 17:12 18:05 18:25 19:12 20:20 21:12 21:48 22:56




Norwich – Cambridge

 Key

       Seats
       Load




200




150




100




 50




  0
       5:53    6:33   7:37   8:40   9:40 10:40 11:40 12:40 13:40 14:40 15:40 16:40 17:35 18:40 19:45 20:42 22:10




                                                                                                                       157
      Felixstowe – Ipswich

       Key

             Seats
             Load




      200




      150




      100




       50




        0
             5:34    6:39   7:51   8:56   9:56 10:56 11:56 12:56 13:56 14:56 15:56 16:56 17:56 18:56 19:56 20:56 22:56




      Ipswich – Felixstowe

       Key

             Seats
             Load




      200




      150




      100




       50




        0
             5:04    6:04   7:13   8:26   9:26 10:26 11:26 12:56 13:26 14:26 15:26 16:26 17:26 18:26 19:26 20:26 22:26




158
Lowestoft – Ipswich

 Key

       Seats
       Load




200




150




100




 50




  0
         5:31    6:43      8:58       10:58           12:58           14:58       16:58      18:43    20:58




Ipswich – Lowestoft

 Key

       Seats
       Load




200




150




100




 50




  0
        6:48    9:02    11:02     13:02       15:02           17:02       18:13      18:55    20:52   22:15




                                                                                                              159
      Peterborough – Ipswich

       Key

             Seats
             Load




      200




      150




      100




       50




        0
                5:35   8:03    10:03   12:03   14:03   16:02   18:03   20:16




      Ipswich – Peterborough

       Key

             Seats
             Load




      200




      150




      100




       50




        0
                7:52   9:47    11:48   13:47   15:47   17:47   19:49   22:05




160
Lowestoft – Norwich

 Key

        Seats
        Load




200




150




100




 50




  0
       5:40 6:40 7:40 7:51 8:43 9:43 10:50 11:43 12:50 13:43 14:50 15:43 16:48 17:48 18:48 19:48 20:50 21:43 22:46 23:31




Norwich – Lowestoft

 Key

        Seats
        Load




200




150




100




 50




  0
       5:45 6:26 6:56 7:54 8:57 9:57 10:57 11:57 12:57 13:57 14:57 15:57 16:57 17:57 18:57 19:57 20:57 21:57 22:40




                                                                                                                           161
      Great Yarmouth – Norwich

       Key

              Seats
              Load




      200




      150




      100




       50




        0
             6:00 6:42 7:17 7:45 8:17 9:17 10:17 11:17 12:17 13:17 14:12 15:17 16:17 17:17 17:43 18:14 19:17 20:17 21:17 22:17 23:33




      Norwich – Great Yarmouth

       Key

              Seats
              Load




      200




      150




      100




       50




        0
             5:15 6:36 7:05 7:36 8:36 9:36 10:36 11:36 12:36 13:36 14:36 15:36 16:40 17:05 17:36 18:40 19:36 20:40 21:40 23:00




162
Sheringham – Norwich

 Key

       Seats
       Load




200




150




100




 50




  0
       6:32    7:17   8:25   9:46 10:46 11:46 12:46 13:46 14:46 15:46 16:49 17:48 18:49 19:48 20:49 22:16 23:46




Norwich – Sheringham

 Key

       Seats
       Load




200




150




100




 50




  0
       5:20    5:50   7:15   8:23   9:45 10:45 11:45 12:45 13:45 14:45 15:45 16:45 17:45 18:45 19:45 21:15 22:45




                                                                                                                   163
164
      Appendix B – Berthing summary

      Berthing Points




                           Usage
                           3-car
                                   Usage
                                   4-car
                                           Usage
                                           vehicles
                                                      Usage
                                                      1-car
                                                               Usage
                                                               2-car
                                                                        Usage
                                                                        3-car
                                                                                 Usage
                                                                                 vehicles
                                                                                            Number of
                                                                                            Sidings
                                                                                                        Number of
                                                                                                        Sidings
                                                                                                                    Approx.
                                                                                                                    Capacity
                                                                                                                    vehicles
                                                                                                                               Approx.
                                                                                                                               Capacity
                                                                                                                               vehicles
                                                                                                                                          Approx.
                                                                                                                                          Spare
                                                                                                                                          Capacity
                                                                                                                                          vehicles
                                                                                                                                                     Approx.
                                                                                                                                                     Spare
                                                                                                                                                     Capacity
                                                                                                                                                     vehicles
                           Elec    Elec    Elec       Diesel   Diesel   Diesel   Diesel     Elec        Unwired     Elec       Unwired    Elec       Unwired

      Aldersbrook          0       0       0          0        0        0        0          5           0           40         0          40         0          Unused 5x 8-car
                                                                                                                                                                wired roads
      Bishops Stortford    0       2       8          0        0        0        0          1           0           8          0          0          0          Platform 3 used
      Bishops Stortford    0       5       20         0        0        0        0          3           0           32         0          12         0          Includes
      CS                                                                                                                                                        passenger loop
      Cambridge CS         0       30      120        0        0        0        0          12          5           160        28         40         28         No diesels
                                                                                                                                                                berthed
      Chingford station    0       4       16         0        0        0        0          2           0           24         0          8          0          2 platforms used
      Chingford CE         0       8       32         0        0        0        0          5           0           40         0          8          0
      Sdgs
      Chingford LE         0       10      40         0        0        0        0          5           0           40         0          0          0
      Sdgs
      Clacton CS           0       20      80         0        0        0        0          7           0           92         0          12         0
      Colchester station   0       9       36         0        0        0        0          4           0           36         0          0          0          Bay platforms +
                                                                                                                                                                sidings
      Colchester CS        0       18      72         0        1        1        5          8           2           82         8          10         3
      East Ham             0       23      92         0        1        0        2          20          0           224        0          132        -2         Diesels berthed
                                                                                                                                                                on wired road
      Gidea Park CS        0       18      72         0        0        0        0          12          0           96         0          24         0
      Hertford East        0       2       8          0        0        0        0          2           0           8          0          0          0
      Ilford station       0       2       8          0        0        0        0          1           0           8          0          0          0          Bay platform
                                                                                                                                                                used
      Ilford EMUD          0       39      156        0        0        0        0          19          0           160        0          4          0
      Ipswich station      0       3       12         0        0        0        0          1           0           12         0          0          0
      Appendix B – Berthing summary (continued)

      Ipswich CS         0    0     0      3   1    0   5    2     0    12     0     12    -5   Diesels berthed
                                                                                                on wired roads
      King’s Lynn CS     0    4     16     0   0    0   0    2     0    16     0     0     0
      Letchworth         12   6     60     0   0    0   0    10    0    80     0     20    0
      Liverpool Street   0    12    48     0   0    2   6    18    0    204    0     156   -6   2 wired
      station                                                                                   platforms used
      Norwich station    0    6     24     0   0    0   0    6     0    56     6     32    6    2 wired
                                                                                                platforms used
      Norwich Crown      0    18    72     3   6    4   27   9     6    84     43    12    16   Loco hauled sets
      Point                                                                                     = 3x4-car EMU
      Norwich CS         0    0     0      0   2    2   10   0     4    0      40    0     30
      Shen eld Down      0    4     16     0   0    0   0    3     0    24     0     8     0    1 road OOU
      CS
      Shen eld Middle    0    2     8      0   0    0   0    2     0    20     0     12    0
      CS
      Shoeburyness       0    54    216    0   0    0   0    31    0    360    0     144   0
      Southend Vic CS    0    36    144    0   0    0   0    15    0    152    0     8     0
      Southend Vic       0    3     12     0   0    0   0    3     0    28     0     16    0
      DSS
      Thornton Fields    0    0     0      0   0    0   0    10    2    112    0     112   0    Not used
      CS                                                                                        overnight. 2
                                                                                                unwired roads
                                                                                                OOU. Due to
                                                                                                be replaced as
                                                                                                part of Olympics
                                                                                                work


      Totals             12   338   1388   6   11   9   55   218   19   2210   125   822   70




165
      Appendix C – Congested stations and station facilities data
      Station Congestion

       Congested stations

       Station                Issue                                       Mitigation
       Liverpool Street       Circulation around ticket barriers,         Improve barrier line, access to LUL and
                              interchange with LUL and access to/         the Bishopsgate entrance.
                              egress from the station concourse.          To be taken forward in the station
                                                                          Master Plan.
       Fenchurch Street       Circulation through and from subway.        Widen subway and improve access
                              Circulation up main stairs, around ticket   stairways. Move main stairway back
                              windows and barrier line. Circulation on    to improve ticket hall/circulation at
                              platforms.                                  platform level. Move CIS to improve
                                                                          barrier line circulation. Review seating
                                                                          layout on platforms.
                                                                          To be taken forward in the station
                                                                          Master Plan.
       Chelmsford             Congestion on stairs leading up to          Provide addition access to Up platform
                              platforms (especially Up platform).         to relieve circulation on stairs and
                              Circulation around ticket barrier and       through ticket hall/barriers.
                              ticket of ce.                               Being considered in conjunction with
                                                                          Essex County Council and a property
                                                                          development.
       Seven Sisters          Congestion on the platforms and the         Widen platforms and staircases.
                              stairs. Circulation through the subway      Improve subway/access to LUL.
                              and interchange with LUL.                   Likely to be NRDF funded.
       Stratford              Congestion in subways and on                Re-open eastern subway and de-clutter
                              platforms.                                  platforms.
                                                                          Improvements being taken forward as
                                                                          part of 2012 Olympic programme.
       Barking                Congestion in the ticket hall.              Potential to improve the gate line.
       Cambridge              Congestion in the ticket hall.              Enlarge ticket hall and improve
                                                                          circulation.
                                                                          Being considered in conjunction with
                                                                          the station forecourt development.
       Chafford Hundred       Congestion on platforms, stairs, barrier    Increase capacity of stairs, gate line
                              line during evening peak.                   and entrance. Possible NRDF scheme.
       Walthamstow Central    Congestion around ticket hall and           Improve number of ticket machines and
                              access to LUL.                              access to LUL.
       Colchester North       Congestion on island platform.              De–clutter platform.
       (Location advised by                                               Station improvement scheme being
       Passenger Focus)                                                   examined.




166
Station facilities

    Key

A         National hub

A (MS)    National hub (Major Station)

B         Regional hub

C         Important feeder

D         Medium, staffed

E         Small, staffed

F         Small, unstaffed

P         Facility exists in part only

Y         Facility exists




 West Anglia station facilities
 Station name                            Station    Platforms   Car Park                 Information     Transport
                                         Category                                                        Interchange
                                                    Disabled    Present    10%           PA        CIS   Taxi   Bus    Cycle
                                                    Access      at         spare         System
                                                                station    peak
                                                                           utilisation
 Angel Road                              F
 Ashwell & Morden                        E                      Y                        Y         Y                   Y
 Attleborough                            F                      Y
 Audley End                              D                      Y                        Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
 Baldock                                 E                      Y          Y             Y               Y      Y
 Bethnal Green                           F                                               Y
 Bishops Stortford                       C          Y           Y                        Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
 Brandon                                 F                      Y          Y                       Y
 Brimsdown                               E                      Y                        Y                      Y      Y
 Broxbourne                              C                      Y                        Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
 Bruce Grove                             E                                               Y         Y            Y
 Bury St Edmunds                         C                      Y          Y                             Y      Y      Y
 Bush Hill Park                          D          Y           Y          Y             Y         Y            Y
 Cambridge                               B          Y           Y                        Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
 Cambridge Heath                         F                                                                      Y
 Cheshunt                                C          Y           Y                        Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
 Chingford                               C          Y           Y                        Y               Y      Y      Y
 Clapton                                 D                                               Y                      Y
 Downham Market                          E                      Y                        Y               Y      Y      Y
 Dullingham                              F          Y           Y          Y                                           Y
 Eccles Road                             F          Y           Y          Y
 Edmonton Green                          C                                               Y         Y            Y      Y
 Elmswell                                F




                                                                                                                               167
      West Anglia station facilities (continued)
      Station name        Station    Platforms   Car Park                 Information     Transport
                          Category                                                        Interchange
                                     Disabled    Present    10%           PA        CIS   Taxi   Bus    Cycle
                                     Access      at         spare         System
                                                 station    peak
                                                            utilisation
      Elsenham            E                                               Y
      Ely                 D                      Y                        Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
      En eld Lock         E                                               Y         Y            Y      Y
      En eld Town         C          Y                                    Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
      Foxton              F                                               Y                      Y
      Great Chesterford   E                                               Y                             Y
      Hackney Downs       C                                               Y         Y            Y      Y
      Harling Road        F          Y           Y          Y                                           Y
      Harlow Mill         E                      Y          Y             Y                      Y      Y
      Harlow Town         C                      Y                        Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
      Hertford East       E          Y           Y          Y             Y         Y     Y      Y
      Highams Park        C                      Y          Y             Y                      Y      Y
      Kennett             F                      Y          Y                                           Y
      Kings Lynn          D          Y           Y          Y             Y               Y      Y      Y
      Lakenheath          F          Y
      Letchworth          D                                               Y         Y            Y
      Littleport          F                      Y                                                      Y
      London Fields       F
      Manea               F          Y
      March               E          Y           Y                                        Y             Y
      Meldreth            E                      Y          Y             Y
      Melton              F          Y           Y          Y                             Y
      Newmarket           F          Y           Y          Y             Y         Y     Y             Y
      Newport (Essex)     E                      Y          Y             Y
      Northumberland      E          Y           Y                                               Y
      Park
      Ponders End         C          Y                                    Y         Y            Y      Y
      Rectory Road        E                                               Y         Y
      Roydon              E                      Y          Y             Y                             Y
      Royston             D          Y           Y                        Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
      Rye House           E                                               Y
      Sawbridgeworth      E                      Y                        Y                             Y
      Seven Sisters       D                                               Y         Y            Y
      Shelford            E                                               Y                      Y




168
West Anglia station facilities (continued)

Station name           Station    Platforms   Car Park                 Information     Transport
                       Category                                                        Interchange
                                  Disabled    Present    10%           PA        CIS   Taxi   Bus    Cycle
                                  Access      at         spare         System
                                              station    peak
                                                         utilisation
Shepreth               F                                               Y                             Y
Shippea Hill           F          Y           Y          Y
Silver Street          D                                               Y         Y            Y
Southbury              E                                               Y                      Y
Spooner Row            F          Y
St James St            D                                               Y         Y            Y
St Margarets (Herts)   E                      Y          Y             Y               Y      Y      Y
Stamford Hill          E                                               Y         Y            Y
Stansted Airport       B          Y                                    Y         Y            Y
Stansted               E                      Y          Y             Y                      Y      Y
Mount tchet
Stoke Newington        E                                               Y         Y            Y      Y
Theobalds Grove        D                                               Y                      Y
Thetford               E                      Y          Y                             Y
Thurston               F                      Y          Y                       Y
Tottenham Hale         D                                               Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
Turkey Street          E                      Y          Y             Y                      Y      Y
Waltham Cross          E                      Y          Y             Y               Y      Y      Y
Walthamstow Central    C          Y           Y                        Y                      Y
Ware                   D          Y                                    Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
Waterbeach             F                      Y          Y             Y                             Y
Watlington             F                      Y          Y                                           Y
White Hart Lane        E                                               Y                      Y
Whittlesea             F          Y
Whittlesford Parkway   E          Y           Y          Y             Y                      Y      Y
Wood Street            D                                               Y                      Y
Wymondham              F                      Y          Y




                                                                                                             169
      Thameside station facilities
      Station name       Station    Platforms   Car Park                 Information     Transport
                         Category                                                        Interchange
                                    Disabled    Present    10%           PA        CIS   Taxi   Bus    Cycle
                                    Access      at         spare         System
                                                station    peak
                                                           utilisation
      Barking            B                                               Y         Y     Y      Y
      Basildon           C          Y                                    Y         Y            Y
      Ben eet            C                      Y                        Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
      Chafford Hundred   E          Y           Y          Y             Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
      Chalkwell          C                                               Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
      Dagenham Dock      E          Y           Y          Y             Y         Y
      East Tilbury       E          Y                                    Y         Y
      Fenchurch Street   A (MS)                                          Y         Y     Y      Y
      Grays              C          Y           Y          Y             Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
      Laindon            C                      Y          Y             Y         Y            Y      Y
      Leigh-on-Sea       C          Y           Y          Y             Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
      Limehouse          E                                               Y         Y            Y
      Ockendon           E                      Y          Y             Y         Y     Y      Y
      Pitsea             C                      Y                        Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
      Pur eet            D          Y           Y          Y             Y         Y                   Y
      Rainham (Greater   C          Y           Y          Y             Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
      London)
      Shoeburyness       E          Y           Y          Y             Y         Y            Y      Y
      Southend Central   D          Y           Y                        Y         Y            Y      Y
      Southend East      D                                               Y         Y                   Y
      Stanford Le Hope   D          Y           Y          Y             Y         Y
      Thorpe Bay         D          Y           Y          Y             Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
      Tilbury Town       D                                               Y         Y            Y
      Upminster          C          Y           Y          Y             Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
      West Ham           F          Y                                    Y         Y
      (c2c Platforms)
      West Horndon       E                      Y          Y             Y         Y     Y      Y
      Westcliff          D          Y           Y          Y             Y         Y            Y      Y




170
Great Eastern station facilities
Station name         Station   Platforms   Car Park                 Information     Transport
                                                                                    Interchange
                               Disabled    Present    10%           PA        CIS   Taxi   Bus    Cycle
                               Access      at         spare         System
                                           station    peak
                                                      utilisation
Acle                 F                     Y          Y                       Y                   Y
Alresford            E                                              Y         Y            Y      Y
Althorne             F         Y           Y                        Y         Y                   Y
Battlesbridge        F         Y           Y          Y             Y                             Y
Beccles              F         Y           Y          Y                       Y                   Y
Berney Arms          F                                                                            Y
Billericay           B         Y           Y          Y             Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
Braintree            C         Y           Y          Y             Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
Braintree Freeport   F         Y           Y          Y             Y         Y
Brampton (Suffolk)   F                     Y
Brentwood            B                     Y          Y             Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
Brundall             F                     Y          Y                                           Y
Brundall Gardens     F                                                        Y                   Y
Buckenham            F
Bures                F         Y           Y                        Y         Y                   Y
Burnham on Crouch    D         Y           Y          Y             Y         Y                   Y
Cantley              F         Y           Y                        Y         Y                   Y
Chadwell Heath       C                                              Y         Y            Y
Chappel & Wakes      F         Y           Y          Y             Y         Y            Y      Y
Colne
Chelmsford           B         Y           Y          Y             Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
Clacton on Sea       C         Y           Y          Y             Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
Colchester (North)   B         Y           Y                        Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
Colchester Town      E         Y                                    Y         Y            Y      Y
Cressing             F         Y           Y          Y             Y         Y                   Y
Cromer               F         Y           Y                                                      Y
Darsham              F         Y           Y
Derby Road           F                                                        Y
Diss                 C                     Y                        Y         Y     Y             Y
Dovercourt           E         Y                                    Y         Y                   Y
Emerson Park         F         Y                                    Y         Y            Y      Y
North Fambridge      F                     Y          Y             Y         Y                   Y
Felixstowe           F         Y                                                    Y             Y
Forest Gate          C                                              Y         Y            Y




                                                                                                          171
      Great Eastern station facilities (continued)
      Station name         Station   Platforms   Car Park                 Information     Transport
                                                                                          Interchange
                                     Disabled    Present    10%           PA        CIS   Taxi   Bus    Cycle
                                     Access      at         spare         System
                                                 station    peak
                                                            utilisation
      Frinton-on-Sea       E         Y           Y          Y             Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
      Gidea Park           C                     Y          Y             Y         Y            Y      Y
      Goodmayes            C                                              Y         Y            Y
      Great Bentley        E         Y           Y          Y             Y         Y                   Y
      Great Yarmouth       C         Y           Y          Y             Y               Y      Y      Y
      Gunton               F         Y           Y                                                      Y
      Haddiscoe            F                     Y          Y
      Halesworth           F         Y           Y          Y                                           Y
      Harold Wood          C                     Y                        Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
      Harwich              E                                              Y         Y
      International
      Harwich Town         F         Y           Y          Y             Y         Y                   Y
      Hat eld Peverel      D                     Y          Y             Y         Y            Y      Y
      Hockley              C         Y           Y                        Y         Y     Y             Y
      Hoveton &            F         Y           Y          Y             Y               Y             Y
      Wroxham
      Hythe                F         Y                                    Y                             Y
      Ilford               B                     Y          Y             Y         Y            Y      Y
      Ingatestone          D         Y           Y          Y             Y         Y                   Y
      Ipswich              B                     Y                        Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
      Kelvedon             C         Y           Y          Y             Y         Y     Y             Y
      Kirby Cross          F                     Y          Y             Y                             Y
      Lingwood             F         Y           Y          Y                       Y                   Y
      Liverpool Street     A (MS)    Y                                    Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
      Lowestoft            C         Y           Y          Y             Y               Y             Y
      Manningtree          C                     Y          Y             Y         Y     Y             Y
      Manor Park           C                                              Y         Y            Y      Y
      Marks Tey            D         Y           Y          Y             Y         Y            Y      Y
      Maryland             D                                              Y                             Y
      Mistley              F                     Y          Y             Y         Y                   Y
      Needham Market       F                                                        Y
      North Walsham        F                     Y          Y                       Y     Y             Y
      Norwich              B         Y           Y                        Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
      Oulton Broad North   F         Y           Y          Y                                           Y
      Oulton Broad South   F         Y           Y          Y
      Prittlewell          E         P (up)      Y          Y             Y         Y            Y      Y



172
Great Eastern station facilities (continued)
Station name         Station   Platforms   Car Park                 Information     Transport
                                                                                    Interchange
                               Disabled    Present    10%           PA        CIS   Taxi   Bus    Cycle
                               Access      at         spare         System
                                           station    peak
                                                      utilisation
Rayleigh             C         Y           Y                        Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
Reedham (Norfolk)    F                     Y          Y                       Y                   Y
Rochford             C         Y           Y                        Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
Romford              B                                              Y         Y            Y      Y
Roughton Road        F
Salhouse             F                     Y          Y                                           Y
Saxmundham           F         Y           Y                                  Y                   Y
Seven Kings          C                                              Y         Y
Shen eld             B         Y           Y                        Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
Sheringham           F                     Y                                  Y     Y             Y
Somerleyton          F         Y           Y          Y                                           Y
Southend Victoria    C         Y           Y          Y             Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
Southminster         F         Y           Y          Y             Y         Y     Y             Y
Stowmarket           C         Y           Y                        Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
Stratford            B         Y                                    Y         Y     Y      Y
Sudbury              F         Y                                    Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
Thorpe-le-Soken      E                     Y          Y             Y         Y                   Y
Trimley              F                     Y          Y                                           Y
Walton-on-the-Naze   E         Y           Y          Y             Y         Y                   Y
Weeley               F         Y           Y          Y             Y         Y                   Y
West Runton          F         Y                                                                  Y
Wester eld           F         Y
White Notley         F         Y                                    Y         Y                   Y
Wickford             C         Y           Y                        Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
Wickham Market       F         Y           Y          Y                                           Y
Witham               C         Y           Y          Y             Y         Y     Y      Y
Wivenhoe             E                     Y          Y             Y         Y     Y      Y      Y
Woodbridge           F                     Y          Y                             Y             Y
South Woodham        C         Y           Y          Y             Y         Y            Y      Y
Ferrers
Worstead             F                     Y                                                      Y
Wrabness             F         Y           Y          Y             Y                             Y




                                                                                                          173
      Appendix D – Delay Data



         West Anglia Route Top 10 Delays 2005/06


                                                                           15101          27615
          Key
                                                            28618
                Track Circuit Failures
                                                                                                          16736
                External Fatalities and Trespass

                Production Responsibility

                Broken Rail/Track Faults

                Points Failures                    32412
                Fleet Electric Traction

                Traincrew Crew Used

                Freight Terminal Operations
                                                                                                           15345
                Fleet Diesel Traction

                External Other                             35719


                                                                                       43402




         Total Delays 2005/06 469,952 minutes




         Thameside Route Top 10 Delays 2005/06


                                                                            5807       10647
          Key                                                       6389
                                                                                                  5414

                Track Circuit Failures                     9170
                                                                                                         5330
                External Fatalities and Trespass
                                                                                                           5273
                Production Responsibility

                Broken Rail/Track Faults           12861                                                        4104

                Points Failures

                Fleet Electric Traction

                Traincrew Crew Used

                Freight Terminal Operations

                Fleet Diesel Traction

                External Other

                                                                               66295




         Total Delays 2005/06 194,426 minutes




174
      Great Eastern Route Top 10 Delays 2005/06


                                                                                 36760           64757
       Key
                                                                        39405
             Track Circuit Failures

             External Fatalities and Trespass                                                                  57912
                                                                43390
             Production Responsibility

             Broken Rail/Track Faults

             Points Failures
                                                            55815                                                 55182
             Fleet Electric Traction

             Traincrew Crew Used

             Freight Terminal Operations

             Fleet Diesel Traction                                                                          51947

             External Other
                                                                        113932
                                                                                             51214




      Total Delays 2005/06 1,169,862 minutes




Secondary Delay

Key

       <0.099

       0.100-0.199

       0.200-0.299

       0.300-0.399

       0.400-0.499

       >0.500




Mins                 Strategic         Delay Section                Sub Route Section               Total        Mins/train
                     Route                                                                          trains
                                                                                                    per year
1806                 5                 Middleton Towers Total       Cambridge - Kings Lynn          766          2.358
50016                7                 Wester eld Jn - Felixstowe   Wester eld Jn - Felixstowe      25489        1.962
                                       Total
46797                7                 Ipswich - Stowmarket Total   Colchester - Norwich            76171        0.614
22099                5                 March - Peterborough Total   Ely - Peterborough              37622        0.587
12184                5                 Chippenham - Haughley        Haughley Jn - Cambridge/        21569        0.565
                                       Jn Total                     Ely




                                                                                                                              175
      Secondary Delay (continued)

       Mins      Strategic   Delay Section                 Sub Route Section             Total      Mins/train
                 Route                                                                   trains
                                                                                         per year
       50492     7           Shen eld - Chelmsford Total   Shen eld - Colchester         91921      0.549
       11462     5           Ely - Trowse Total            Ely - Norwich                 21225      0.540
       25288     7           Trowse - Norwich Total        Colchester - Norwich          47672      0.530
       50648     5           Coppermill Jn - Cheshunt      Liverpool Street -            101828     0.497
                             Total                         Broxbourne
       532       6           Thameshaven Branch            Tilbury Loop                  1079       0.493
                             Total
       12472     5           Broxbourne - Hertford East    Hertford East Branch          25464      0.490
                             Total
       5164      7           Cromer - Sheringham Total     Whitlingham Jn -              10736      0.481
                                                           Sheringham
       7035      7           Wickford - Southminster       Shen eld - Southend           14630      0.481
                             Total                         Victoria/Southminster
       5910      7           Sudbury Branch Total          Sudbury Branch                12405      0.476
       5782      7           Whitlingham Jn - Cromer       Whitlingham Jn -              12170      0.475
                             Total                         Sheringham
       12307     7           Colchester - Clacton Total    Colchester - Clacton/Walton   27035      0.455
       6544      7           Braintree Branch Total        Braintree Branch              14528      0.450
       28004     7           Colchester - Manningtree      Colchester - Norwich          64755      0.432
                             Total
       6162      7           Wester eld - Saxmundham       Ipswich - Lowestoft           14494      0.425
                             Total
       14205     5           Ely - Kings Lynn Total        Cambridge - Kings Lynn        33868      0.419
       21955     5           Stansted Airport Branch       Broxbourne - Cambridge        58070      0.378
                             Total
       31360     5           Bishops Stortford -           Broxbourne - Cambridge        84255      0.372
                             Cambridge Total
       17569     6           Barking - Grays Total         Tilbury Loop                  47565      0.369
       20469     7           Manningtree - Ipswich Total   Colchester - Norwich          55670      0.368
                 7           Liverpool Street - Bethnal    Liverpool Street - Shen eld   431144     0.346
                             Green Total
       14465     5           Cambridge - Ely Total         Cambridge - Kings Lynn        43251      0.334
       38223     5           Cheshunt - Bishops            Broxbourne - Cambridge        114937     0.333
                             Stortford Total
       5024      7           Harwich International -       Harwich Branch                15244      0.330
                             Harwich Town Total
       7488      7           Stowmarket - Trowse Total     Colchester - Norwich          27069      0.277
       21987     7           Marks Tey - Colchester        Shen eld - Colchester         79836      0.275
                             Total
       21877     7           Witham - Marks Tey Total      Shen eld - Colchester         79625      0.275
       2542      5           Temple Mills - Coppermill     Liverpool Street -            9342       0.272
                             Jn Total                      Broxbourne




176
Secondary Delay (continued)

 Mins      Strategic   Delay Section                   Sub Route Section             Total      Mins/train
           Route                                                                     trains
                                                                                     per year
 7856      5           En eld Town Branch Total        En eld Town Branch            30145      0.261
 1325      5           Stratford - Temple Mills        Liverpool Street -            5494       0.241
                       Total                           Broxbourne
 21654     7           Chelmsford - Witham Total       Shen eld - Colchester         90912      0.238
 1443      7           Saxmundham - Oulton             Ipswich - Lowestoft           6563       0.220
                       Broad Total
 48461     7           Ilford - Gidea Park Total       Liverpool Street - Shen eld   228618     0.212
 6144      7           Brundall - Great Yarmouth       Brundall/Reedham Jn-          29088      0.211
                       Total                           Great Yarmouth
 51934     7           Stratford - Forest Gate Total   Liverpool Street - Shen eld   247001     0.210
 9652      5           Chingford Branch Total          Chingford Branch              47580      0.203
 2192      5           Soham Branch Total              Haughley Jn - Cambridge/      10869      0.202
                                                       Ely
 21281     6           Fenchurch Street - Barking      Fenchurch Street -            107477     0.198
                       Total                           Shoeburyness
 6472      5           Ely - March Total               Ely - Peterborough            33960      0.191
 3022      7           Walton Branch Total             Colchester - Clacton/Walton   16127      0.187
 39380     7           Gidea Park - Shen eld Total     Liverpool Street - Shen eld   214006     0.184
 7190      7           Norwich - Lowestoft Total       Norwich - Lowestoft           41042      0.175
 3755      7           Manningtree - Harwich           Harwich Branch                21513      0.175
                       International Total
 1925      6           Forest Gate - Woodgrange        Gospel Oak - Barking          11344      0.170
                       Park Total
 798       6           Coppermill Jn - South           Gospel Oak - Barking          4853       0.164
                       Tottenham Total
 4461      6           Upminster - Grays Total         Ockendon Branch               28216      0.158
 5360      6           Grays - Pitsea Total            Tilbury Loop                  35690      0.150
 31136     7           Bethnal Green - Stratford       Liverpool Street - Shen eld   229217     0.136
                       Total
 3916      5           Bury Street Jn - Cheshunt       Liverpool Street -            29647      0.132
                       Total                           Broxbourne
 6794      7           Shen eld - Wickford Total       Shen eld - Southend           54375      0.125
                                                       Victoria/Southminster
 9570      6           Pitsea - Shoeburyness           Fenchurch Street -            77451      0.124
                       Total                           Shoeburyness
 4642      6           Barking - Woodgrange            Gospel Oak - Barking          39813      0.117
                       Park Total
 8596      6           Barking - Upminster Total       Fenchurch Street -            83468      0.103
                                                       Shoeburyness




                                                                                                             177
      Secondary Delay (continued)


       Mins             Strategic       Delay Section                 Sub Route Section             Total        Mins/train
                        Route                                                                       trains
                                                                                                    per year
       19453            5               Bethnal Green - Hackney       Liverpool Street -            197143       0.099
                                        Downs Total                   Broxbourne
       22245            7               Forest Gate - Ilford Total    Liverpool Street - Shen eld   231358       0.096
       4267             7               Wickford - Southend           Shen eld - Southend           44387        0.096
                                        Victoria Total                Victoria/Southminster
       4295             5               Cambridge - Royston Total     Shepreth Branch               46490        0.092
       4925             6               Upminster - Pitsea Total      Fenchurch Street -            55283        0.089
                                                                      Shoeburyness
       920              5               Cambridge - Chippenham        Haughley Jn - Cambridge/      10904        0.084
                                        Jn Total                      Ely
       2594             7               Colchester Town Total         Colchester - Clacton/Walton   33645        0.077
       4403             5               Hackney Downs - Bury          Liverpool Street -            59760        0.074
                                        Street Jn Total               Broxbourne
       6422             5               Clapton-Coppermill Jn         Liverpool Street -            92423        0.069
                                        Total                         Broxbourne
       4196             5               Hackney Downs - Clapton       Liverpool Street -            140078       0.030
                                        Total                         Broxbourne




      Appendix E – Freight path analysis by commodity
      Paths per day each way (May 2004 - May 2005)


       Cross Country Route

       Whittlesea – Peterborough (East)                              Stowmarket – Haughley Jn

       Commodity                    Av paths          Max paths      Commodity                Av paths      Max paths
       Aggregate                    4                 6              Aggregate                1             1
       Automotive                   0                 0              Automotive               0             0
       Channel Tunnel               0                 0              Channel Tunnel           0             0
       Intermodal                   7                 15             Intermodal               7             16
       Infrastructure               2                 10             Infrastructure           0             1
       Light engines                1                 5              Light engines            1             6
       Other                        9                 N/A            Other                    4             N/A
       Total                        23                               Total                    13




178
 Great Eastern Main Line

 Ipswich – Halifax Jn                                 Shen eld

 Commodity                Av paths        Max paths   Commodity             Av paths     Max paths
 Aggregate                0               1           Aggregate             1            3
 Automotive               0               0           Automotive            0            0
 Channel Tunnel           0               0           Channel Tunnel        0            0
 Intermodal               16              20          Intermodal            14           19
 Infrastructure           0               1           Infrastructure        0            3
 Light engines            1               2           Light engines         1            3
 Other                    4               N/A         Other                 1            N/A
 Total                    21                          Total                 17


 Manor Park – Ilford                                  Maryland – Forest Gate

 Commodity                Av paths        Max paths   Commodity             Av paths    Max paths
 Aggregate                1               3           Aggregate             4           7
 Automotive               0               0           Automotive            0           1
 Channel Tunnel           0               0           Channel Tunnel        3           4
 Intermodal               14              19          Intermodal            19          35
 Infrastructure           0               3           Infrastructure        0           3
 Light engines            1               3           Light engines         2           5
 Other                    0               N/A         Other                 1           N/A
 Total                    16                          Total                 29




Freight Path Use Summary
Trains per day each way (May – July 2007)


 Section                             Av paths used         Max paths used        Planned paths

 Maryland – Forest Gate              35                    39                    53
 Shen eld                            25                    29                    33
 Ipswich – Halifax Jn                24                    27                    32
 Stowmarket – Haughley Jn            7                     12                    15
 Whittlesea – Peterborough           15                    18                    34




                                                                                                     179
                              Appendix F – GEML capacity
                              utilisation
                              The colour coded lines on the following graphs
                              show how capacity is used over the GEML:

                                         Timetable Usage – Capacity used by the
                                         timetable over the whole route.

                                         Route Section Usage – Capacity used by
                                         the timetabled mix of trains over a route
                                         section with a constant number of trains.

                                         ROTP Usage – Capacity required to run
                                         the timetabled number of trains at the
                                         minimum planning headway.

                                         Infrastructure Limit – Absolute theoretical
                                         minimum capacity consumption if
                                         timetabled trains could run at signalling
                                         headway.




                                Key

                                                     Timetabled Usage                                                      ROTP Usage
                                                     Route Section Usage                                                   Infrastructure Limit




      GEML Capacity Analysis – Up Main Line, am peak


                       100%

                       90%

                       80%

                       70%
      Capacity Usage




                       60%

                       50%

                       40%

                       30%

                       20%

                       10%

                        0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Forest Gate
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Stratford
                               Norwich



                                              Diss


                                                           Stowmarket




                                                                                                                                             Witham




                                                                                                                                                                                               Gidea Park
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Romford


                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Ilford


                                                                                                                                                                                                                Bow Jn
                                                       Needham Market

                                                                        Ipswich



                                                                                  Manningtree


                                                                                                Colchester



                                                                                                                         Kelvedon


                                                                                                                                    Hatfield Peverel


                                                                                                                                                       Chelmsford


                                                                                                                                                                    Ingatestone
                                                                                                                                                                                   Shenfield
                                                                                                                                                                                  Brentwood




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Bethnal Green
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Liverpool Street
                                                                                                             Marks Tey




180
                                                  Capacity Usage                                                                                                                             Capacity Usage




                                                                                                                                                                      0%
                                                                                                                                                                           10%
                                                                                                                                                                                 20%
                                                                                                                                                                                       30%
                                                                                                                                                                                              40%
                                                                                                                                                                                                    50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          60%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                70%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      80%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            90%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  100%




                           0%
                                10%
                                      20%
                                            30%
                                                   40%
                                                         50%
                                                               60%
                                                                     70%
                                                                           80%
                                                                                 90%
                                                                                       100%
       Liverpool Street                                                                                                                                   Norwich
        Bethnal Green
               Bow Jn
              Stratford                                                                                                                                       Diss
           Forest Gate
                  Ilford
                                                                                                                                                     Stowmarket
                                                                                                                                                 Needham Market
             Romford
           Gidea Park                                                                                                                                     Ipswich


            Brentwood
             Shenfield                                                                                                                               Manningtree

           Ingatestone
                                                                                                                                                       Colchester

           Chelmsford
                                                                                                                                                       Marks Tey

       Hatfield Peverel                                                                                                                                 Kelvedon
                Witham                                                                                                                                     Witham
             Kelvedon                                                                                                                             Hatfield Peverel

            Marks Tey
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         GEML Capacity Analysis – Up Main Line, off-peak




                                                                                                                                                      Chelmsford
            Colchester




                                                                                              GEML Capacity Analysis – Down Main Line, am peak
                                                                                                                                                      Ingatestone
          Manningtree                                                                                                                                   Shenfield
                                                                                                                                                       Brentwood

               Ipswich                                                                                                                                Gidea Park
                                                                                                                                                        Romford
      Needham Market
          Stowmarket                                                                                                                                         Ilford
                                                                                                                                                      Forest Gate
                   Diss                                                                                                                                  Stratford
                                                                                                                                                          Bow Jn
                                                                                                                                                   Bethnal Green
               Norwich                                                                                                                            Liverpool Street




181
182
                                                  Capacity Usage




                           0%
                                10%
                                      20%
                                            30%
                                                    40%
                                                          50%
                                                                60%
                                                                      70%
                                                                            80%
                                                                                  90%
                                                                                        100%
       Liverpool Street
                                                                                                                                                                                             Key




        Bethnal Green
               Bow Jn
              Stratford
           Forest Gate
                  Ilford


             Romford
           Gidea Park
                                                                                                                                                                          Timetabled Usage




            Brentwood
                                                                                                                                                   Route Section Usage




             Shenfield

           Ingatestone


           Chelmsford


       Hatfield Peverel
                Witham
             Kelvedon
                                                                                                                                                                          ROTP Usage




            Marks Tey
                                                                                                                                                   Infrastructure Limit




            Colchester
                                                                                               GEML Capacity Analysis – Down Main Line, off-peak




          Manningtree



               Ipswich

      Needham Market
          Stowmarket


                   Diss



               Norwich
Appendix G – Glossary of terms
Term                          Meaning
AC                            Alternating Current
Access Charges Review         A review of Network Rail’s funding requirements for the operations,
                              maintenance and renewal of the rail network undertaken by the ORR. This
                              establishes the level of track access charges that are paid for a ve year
                              period, along with the associated output commitments that are expected
                              at this level of funding
ARS                           Automatic Route Setting
AV                            Average
BAA                           British Airports Authority
BCR                           Bene t-Cost Ratio
Bi-di Signalling              Bi-directional (a form of signalling that allows trains to run safely in the
                              opposite direction to the normal ow of traf c on a single track)
CE                            Country End
CET                           Controlled Emission Toilets
CIS                           Customer Information System
CP                            Control Period
CS                            Carriage Sidings
CUI                           Capacity Utilisation Index
DDA                           Disability Discrimination Act
DEEP                          Draft East of England Plan
DfT                           Department for Transport
DLR                           Docklands Light Railway
DMU                           Diesel Multiple Unit
Down                          Where referred to as a direction i.e. Down direction, Down peak, Down
                              line, Down train, this generally but not always refers to the direction that
                              leads away from London
DRS                           Direct Rail Services
DSS                           Down Sidings South
DVT                           Driving Vehicle Trailer
E lines                       The electric or suburban stopping lines between Liverpool Street and
                              Shen eld
EC                            European Commission
ECML                          East Coast Main Line
ECS                           Empty Coaching Stock
Ef cient Engineering Access   A generic term for an initiative aimed at establishing a more ef cient
                              access regime for the delivery of the required maintenance and renewal
                              of the railway infrastructure, balancing engineering requirements with
                              passenger and freight demand
EMU                           Electric Multiple Unit
EMUD                          Electric Multiple Unit Depot
ERTMS                         European Rail Traf c Management System
EWS                           English, Welsh and Scottish Railway
FCC                           First Capital Connect




                                                                                                             183
      FOC               Freight Operating Company
      FRUS              Freight Route Utilisation Strategy
      GA                Greater Anglia
      GBRf              GB Railfreight
      GDP               Gross Domestic Product
      GE                Great Eastern
      GEML              Great Eastern Main Line
      GLA               Greater London Authority
      GN                Great Northern
      GOB               The Gospel Oak – Barking Line
      GRIP              Guide to Railway Investment Projects
      Headway           The minimum interval possible between trains on a particular section of track
      ha                Hectares
      HGV               Heavy Goods Vehicle
      HLOS              High Level Output Speci cation
      HM                Her Majesty’s
      HPUK              Hutchison Ports UK
      HS1               High Speed 1
      IECC              Integrated Electronic Control Centre
      IEP               Inter-city Express Project
      IKF               Integrated Kent Franchise
      Jn                Junction
      Junction margin   The minimum interval possible between trains operating over the same
                        junction in con icting directions
      LATS              London Area Travel Survey
      LE                London End
      LENNON            An industry database recording ticket sales
      Loading gauge     Maximum dimensions to which a vehicle can be built or loaded without
                        being at risk of striking a lineside structure
      LUL               London Underground Limited
      MML               Midland Main Line
      MOIRA             A passenger demand forecasting model
      mppa              million passengers per annum
      Network Code      The Network Code is a set of rules which is incorporated into, and
                        therefore forms part of, each bilateral access contract between Network
                        Rail and holders of rights of access to the track owned and operated by
                        Network Rail.
      NLL               North London Line
      NLSA              North London Strategic Alliance
      NR                Network Rail
      NRDF              Network Rail Development Fund
      NSIP              National Station Improvement Programme
      ODA               Olympic Delivery Authority




184
OLE          Overhead Line Equipment
OOU          Out Of Use
ORR          Of ce of Rail Regulation
pa           per annum
PA           Public Address
PDFH         Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook. An industry document that
             summarises the effects of service quality, fares and external factors on rail
             demand
PIXC         Passengers In Excess of Capacity. Passengers In Excess of Capacity
             only applies to weekday commuter trains arriving in London between
             07:00 and 09:59 and those departing between 16:00 and 18:59. Capacity
             is deemed to be the number of standard class seats on the train for
             journeys of more than 20 minutes; for journeys of 20 minutes or less, an
             allowance for standing room is also made. The allowance for standing
             varies with the type of rolling stock but, for modern sliding door stock,
             is typically approximately 35 per cent of the number of seats. The PIXC
             measure for a Train Operating Company (TOC) as a whole is derived
             from the number of passengers travelling in excess of capacity on all
             services divided by the total number of people travelling, expressed
             as a percentage. PIXC counts are carried out once a year, on a typical
             weekday during the autumn. The DfT has set limits on the level of
             acceptable PIXC at 4.5 per cent on one peak (morning or afternoon) and
             three per cent across both peaks. The DfT monitors the level of PIXC
             across peaks (both individually and combined).
PLANET       A demand forecasting model developed by the SRA
Possession   Where part of the infrastructure is closed to services to carry out
             maintenance, renewal or enhancement works
PPM          Public Performance Measure
PPP          Public Private Partnership
PSAM         PLANET South AM
PV           Present Value
RA           Route Availability – a system to determine which types of locomotive and
             rolling stock may travel over a route, normally governed by the strength of
             underline bridges in relation to axle loads and speed
RailSys      A modelling tool used to analyse proposed timetable and infrastructure
             con gurations
RCP          Rail Corridor Plan
RETB         Radio Electronic Token Block
RIFF         Rail Industry Forecasting Framework
ROTP         Rules of the Plan
RPI          Retail Prices Index
RSSB         Rail Safety & Standards Board
RUA          Rail Users’ Association
RUS          Route Utilisation Strategy
S&C          Switches and Crossings
SAP          Network Rail’s Strategic Access Planning Unit
SBP          Strategic Business Plan
SCD          Stratford City Development




                                                                                             185
      Sdgs                    Sidings
      SDO                     Selective Door Opening
      Seated Load factor      The amount of seats occupied on a train service expressed as a
                              percentage of total seats available
      Section 106 Agreement   A condition attached to a planning consent, which typically requires
                              the developer to fund associated improvements to infrastructure which
                              supports the development
      SLW                     Single Line Working
      SRA                     Strategic Rail Authority
      SRT                     Sectional Running Time
      STAG                    Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidelines
      SWT                     South West Trains
      Tanking                 Replenishing water tanks
      Tempro                  The Trip End Model Presentation Program
      TEU                     Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit
      TfL                     Transport for London
      The Games               The London 2012 Olympic Games and Paralympic Games
      TIF                     Transport Innovation Fund
      TOC                     Train Operating Company
      TPC                     Train Planning Centre
      tpd                     trains per day
      tph                     trains per hour
      tpw                     trains per week
      Train path              A slot in a timetable for running an individual train
      TRUST                   A computer system which records actual train running times at strategic
                              locations
      TSR                     Temporary Speed Restriction
      UK                      United Kingdom
      Up                      Where referred to as a direction i.e. Up direction, Up peak, Up line, Up
                              train, this is generally but not always refers to the direction that leads
                              towards London
      W10                     The loading gauge which enables 9’ 6” containers to be conveyed on
                              conventional wagons
      W12                     The loading gauge which enables same heigh 9’ 6” [as W10] but wider
                              [than W10] containers to be conveyed on conventional wagons
      WAML                    West Anglia Main Line
      WEB                     Wider Economic Bene t
      WCML                    West Coast Main Line




186

				
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