Get documents about "NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES WHAT DO SELF-REPORTED_ OBJECTIVE
Document Sample
1%(5 :25.,1* 3$3(5 6(5,(6
:+$7 '2 6(/)5(3257(' 2%-(&7,9( 0($685(6 2) +($/7+ 0($685("
0L.KDHO %DNHU
0DUN 6WDELOH
&DWKHULQH 'HUL
:RUNLQJ 3DSHU
KWWS ZZZQEHURUJSDSHUVZ
1$7,21$/ %85($8 2) (&2120,& 5(6($5&+
0DVVD.KXVHWWV $YHQXH
&DPEULGJH 0$
$XJXVW
%DNHU JUDWHIXOO\ D.NQRZOHGJHV WKH UHVHDU.K VXSSRUW RI 66+5& *UDQW 6WDELOH DQG 'HUL JUDWHIXOO\
D.NQRZOHGJH VXSSRUW IURP WKH ,QVWLWXWH IRU &OLQL.DO DQG (YDOXDWLYH 6.LHQ.HV :H ZRXOG OLNH WR WKDQN -RKQ +DP
'DYLG &XWOHU DQG VHPLQDU SDUWL.LSDQWV DW YDULRXV ZRUNVKRSV IRU KHOSIXO .RPPHQWV 7KH YLHZV H[SUHVVHG KHUHLQ
DUH WKRVH RI WKH DXWKRUV DQG QRW QH.HVVDULO\ WKRVH RI WKH 1DWLRQDO %XUHDX RI (.RQRPL. 5HVHDU.K
E\ 0L.KDHO %DNHU 0DUN 6WDELOH DQG &DWKHULQH 'HUL $OO ULJKWV UHVHUYHG 6KRUW VH.WLRQV RI WH[W QRW WR
H[.HHG WZR SDUDJUDSKV PD\ EH TXRWHG ZLWKRXW H[SOL.LW SHUPLVVLRQ SURYLGHG WKDW IXOO .UHGLW LQ.OXGLQJ QRWL.H
LV JLYHQ WR WKH VRXU.H
:KDW GR 6HOI5HSRUWHG 2EMH.WLYH 0HDVXUHV RI +HDOWK 0HDVXUH"
0L.KDHO %DNHU 0DUN 6WDELOH DQG &DWKHULQH 'HUL
1%(5 :RUNLQJ 3DSHU 1R
$XJXVW
-(/ 1R , -
$%675$&7
6XUYH\ UHSRUWV RI WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV DUH .RQVLGHUHG E\ PDQ\ UHVHDU.KHUV WR EH
PRUH REMH.WLYH DQG WKXV SUHIHUDEOH PHDVXUHV RI XQREVHUYHG KHDOWK VWDWXV WKDQ VHOIDVVHVVHG PHDVXUHV
RI JOREDO ZHOO EHLQJ 7KH IRUPHU DUH UHVSRQVHV WR VSH.LIL. TXHVWLRQV DERXW GLIIHUHQW DLOPHQWV ZKL.K
PD\ .RQVWUDLQ WKH OLNHOLKRRG WKDW UHVSRQGHQWV UDWLRQDOL]H WKHLU RZQ EHKDYLRU WKURXJK WKHLU DQVZHUV DQG
PRUH .RPSDUDEOH D.URVV UHVSRQGHQWV ,Q WKLV SDSHU ZH HYDOXDWH WKLV K\SRWKHVLV E\ H[SORULQJ
PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU LQ WKHVH REMH.WLYH VHOIUHSRUWHG PHDVXUHV RI KHDOWK 2XU DQDO\VLV PDNHV XVH RI D
XQLTXH GDWD VHW WKDW PDW.KHV D YDULHW\ RI VHOIUHSRUWV RI KHDOWK ZLWK UHVSRQGHQWV PHGL.DO UH.RUGV 2XU
ILQGLQJV DUH VWULNLQJ )RU H[DPSOH WKH UDWLR RI WKH HUURU YDULDQ.H WR WKH WRWDO YDULDQ.H UDQJHV IURP MXVW
RYHU SHU.HQW IRU WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI GLDEHWHV WR RYHU SHU.HQW IRU WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI DUWKULWLV
)XUWKHUPRUH IRU PDQ\ .RQGLWLRQV WKH HUURU LV VLJQLIL.DQWO\ UHODWHG WR LQGLYLGXDOV ODERU PDUNHW D.WLYLW\
DV K\SRWKHVL]HG LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH ,Q WKH ILQDO VH.WLRQ RI WKH SDSHU ZH .RPSDUH HVWLPDWHV RI WKH HIIH.W RI
WKHVH GLIIHUHQW PHDVXUHV RI KHDOWK RQ ODERU PDUNHW D.WLYLW\
0L.KDHO %DNHU 0DUN 6WDELOH &DWKHULQH 'HUL
'HSDUWPHQW RI (.RQRPL.V 'HSDUWPHQW RI (.RQRPL.V ,QVWLWXWH IRU 3ROL.\ $QDO\VLV
8QLYHUVLW\ RI 7RURQWR 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 7RURQWR 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 7RURQWR
6W *HRUJH 6WUHHW 6W *HRUJH 6WUHHW 6W *HRUJH 6WUHHW
7RURQWR 21 7RURQWR 21 7RURQWR 21
&DQDGD 06 * &DQDGD 06 * &DQDGD 06 *
DQG 1%(5 DQG 1%(5 .GHUL#.KDVVXWRURQWR.D
EDNHU#.KDVVXWRURQWR.D PDUNVWDELOH#XWRURQWR.D
,QWURGX.WLRQ
7KH OLPLWDWLRQV RI XVLQJ VXEMH.WLYH VHOI UHSRUWHG DVVHVVPHQWV RI JOREDO KHDOWK DQGRU
SK\VL.DO .DSD.LW\ DV H[SODQDWRU\ YDULDEOHV LQ HPSLUL.DO PRGHOV RI ODERU PDUNHW EHKDYLRU DUH QRZ
ZLGHO\ UH.RJQL]HG LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH VHH &XUULH DQG 0DGULDQ IRU D UHYLHZ 7KH SUREOHPV
UDQJH IURP WKH VR .DOOHG ³MXVWLIL.DWLRQ K\SRWKHVLV´²KHDOWK SUREOHPV DUH D VR.LDOO\ D..HSWDEOH
DQG .RQYHQLHQW UDWLRQDOL]DWLRQ RI DEVHQ.H IURP WKH ODERU PDUNHW²WR WKH XQNQRZQ OHYHO RI
.RPSDUDELOLW\ RI WKHVH VXEMH.WLYH HYDOXDWLRQV D.URVV LQGLYLGXDOV ,Q UHVSRQVH PDQ\ UHVHDU.KHUV
SXW JUHDWHU VWR.N LQ PRUH REMH.WLYH EXW VWLOO VHOIUHSRUWHG PHDVXUHV RI VSH.LIL. LOOQHVVHV RU
LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ VXEVHTXHQW PRUWDOLW\ DV SUR[LHV IRU KHDOWK %RXQG DQG %XUNKDXVHU 7KH
DUJXPHQW KHUH LV WKDW WKH VSH.LIL.LW\ RI WKH TXHVWLRQV .RQVWUDLQV WKH OLNHOLKRRG WKDW UHVSRQGHQWV
UDWLRQDOL]H WKHLU RZQ EHKDYLRU WKURXJK WKHLU DQVZHUV
$V DUJXHG E\ %RXQG DPRQJ RWKHUV KRZHYHU WKHVH DOWHUQDWLYH PHDVXUHV DUH QRW D
SDQD.HD )LUVW VHOIUHSRUWHG JOREDO KHDOWK PHDVXUHV DUH VXEMH.W WR ERWK QHJDWLYH DQG SRVLWLYH
ELDVHV²UHVXOWLQJ IURP PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU DQG HQGRJHQHLW\ UHVSH.WLYHO\²WKDW DUJXDEO\ .DQ.HO
HD.K RWKHU RXW ,I PRUH REMH.WLYH PHDVXUHV DUH OHVV SURQH WR WKH UDWLRQDOL]DWLRQ ELDV WKHQ WKH\
DUH RQO\ VXEMH.W WR WKH DWWHQXDWLRQ ELDV UHVXOWLQJ IURP PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU 6H.RQG LQVWUXPHQWDO
YDULDEOH ,9 VWUDWHJLHV RI XVLQJ WKH PRUH REMH.WLYH PHDVXUHV DV LQVWUXPHQWV IRU VHOI UHSRUWHG
KHDOWK PD\ UHWULHYH OHVV ELDVHG HVWLPDWHV RI WKH HIIH.WV RI KHDOWK RQ WKH ODERU PDUNHW RXW.RPH RI
LQWHUHVW EXW PD\ OHDG WR ELDVHG HVWLPDWHV RI WKH SDUDPHWHUV RI DQ\ RWKHU H[SODQDWRU\ YDULDEOHV
WKDW DUH WKHPVHOYHV GHWHUPLQDQWV RI VHOIUHSRUWHG KHDOWK
,Q WKLV SDSHU ZH LQYHVWLJDWH WKH YDOLGLW\ RI VHOIUHSRUWHG PHDVXUHV RI VSH.LIL. DLOPHQWV
2XU VWDUWLQJ SRLQW LV WKH &DQDGLDQ 1DWLRQDO 3RSXODWLRQ +HDOWK 6XUYH\ 13+6 ZKL.K LV D
QDWLRQDOO\ UHSUHVHQWDWLYH VXUYH\ RI KHDOWK LQ.OXGLQJ PHDVXUHV RI VHOIUHSRUWHG JOREDO KHDOWK
VSH.LIL. ZRUN DQG D.WLYLW\ OLPLWDWLRQV DQG WKH VHOIUHSRUWHG LQ.LGHQ.H RI VSH.LIL. DLOPHQWV )RU
UHVSRQGHQWV LQ WKH SURYLQ.H RI 2QWDULR WKHVH GDWD KDYH EHHQ PDW.KHG ZLWK GLDJQRVLVWUHDWPHQW
LQIRUPDWLRQ IROORZLQJ WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &ODVVLIL.DWLRQ RI 'LVHDVHV VWDQGDUG ± WK UHYLVLRQ ,&'
WDNHQ IURP WKH 2QWDULR +HDOWK ,QVXUDQ.H 3ODQ 2+,3 IRU WKH VXUYH\ DQG WZR SUH.HGLQJ \HDUV
2+,3 LV D SXEOL. KHDOWK .DUH SURJUDP ILQDQ.HG RXW RI WD[ UHYHQXHV ZKL.K .RYHUV DOO LQGLYLGXDOV
VXEMH.W WR .HUWDLQ UHVLGHQ.\ UHTXLUHPHQWV 6LQ.H SULYDWH DOWHUQDWLYHV WR SXEOL. KHDOWK DUH HLWKHU
SURKLELWHG E\ ODZ RU DUH UHODWLYHO\ YHU\ H[SHQVLYH HJ JRLQJ WR 86 KHDOWK .DUH SURYLGHUV WKHVH
2+,3 KHDOWK UH.RUGV VKRXOG SURYLGH D YHU\ .RPSOHWH UH.RUG RI WKH GLDJQRVHV DQG WUHDWPHQWV RI
WKHVH LQGLYLGXDOV RYHU WKH SHULRG
7KH GLDJQRVHVWUHDWPHQW LQIRUPDWLRQ .RQWDLQHG LQ WKH 2+,3 UH.RUGV SURYLGHV D XQLTXH
RSSRUWXQLW\ WR YDOLGDWH WKH VHOIUHSRUWV RI GLVHDVHV WDNHQ IURP WKH 13+6 2Q RQH KDQG WKH
13+6 TXHVWLRQ LV IDLUO\ SUH.LVH ³>'R \RX@«KDYH DQ\ RI WKH IROORZLQJ ORQJWHUP .RQGLWLRQV WKDW
KDYH EHHQ GLDJQRVHG E\ D KHDOWK SURIHVVLRQDO´" $ OLVW RI SRVVLEOH DLOPHQWV LV RIIHUHG WR
UHVSRQGHQWV WKXV DYRLGLQJ WKH XQGHUUHSRUWLQJ WKDW PLJKW UHVXOW IURP UHOLDQ.H RQ IUHH UH.DOO
7KH PHDQLQJV RI WHUPV XVHG LQ WKH TXHVWLRQ VX.K DV ³ORQJWHUP´ DUH .DUHIXOO\ H[SODLQHG 7KH
UHVXOWLQJ PHDVXUHV WKHUHIRUH H[HPSOLI\ WKH VSH.LIL.LW\ WKDW LV DVVR.LDWHG ZLWK REMH.WLYH VHOI
UHSRUWHG KHDOWK YDULDEOHV 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH UH.RUGV RI GLDJQRVHV DQG WUHDWPHQW WDNHQ IURP
WKH 2+,3 UH.RUGV DUH DUJXDEO\ WKH ³WUXWK´ WKDW WKH 13+6 TXHVWLRQV DWWHPSW WR UH.RUG $
UHPDLQLQJ LVVXH RI .RXUVH LV WKH UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ HLWKHU RI WKHVH PHDVXUHV DQG DQ LQGLYLGXDO¶V
KHDOWK GHILQHG DV ZRUN .DSD.LW\ ZKL.K ERWK SUHVXPDEO\ PHDVXUH ZLWK HUURU
7KH 13+6 DVNHG WKH UHVSRQGHQWV ZKHWKHU WKDW KDG UH.HLYHG KHDOWK .DUH LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV LQ WKH SDVW
PRQWKV )HZHU WKDQ SHU.HQW RI WKH VDPSOH WKH VDPSOH LV &DQDGD ZLGH UHSRUWHG UH.HLYLQJ VX.K .DUH
6HH %RXQG %URZQ DQG 0DWKLRZHW] IRU D GLV.XVVLRQ RI VRPH RI WKH OLWHUDWXUH RQ PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU LQ
KHDOWK UHSRUWV EDVHG RQ IUHH UH.DOO YHUVXV UH.RJQLWLRQ
:H EHJLQ E\ ORRNLQJ DW WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ VXEMH.WLYH DQG REMH.WLYH VHOIUHSRUWV RI
KHDOWK DQG SURYLGH D .RPSDULVRQ RI WKHVH 13+6 YDULDEOHV WR VLPLODU PHDVXUHV UHWULHYHG IURP WKH
86 +HDOWK DQG 5HWLUHPHQW 6XUYH\ +56 WR SURYLGH VRPH .RQWH[W IRU RXU ILQGLQJV 1H[W ZH
LQYHVWLJDWH WKH PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU LQ WKH 13+6 YDULDEOHV 7KLV LQ.OXGHV VXPPDULHV RI WKH
LQ.LGHQ.H RI ³IDOVH SRVLWLYH´ DQG ³IDOVH QHJDWLYH´ UHSRUWLQJ IRU WKH PDMRU GLVHDVH .DWHJRULHV 2XU
ILQGLQJV KHUH DUH VWULNLQJ )RU PDQ\ RI WKH GLVHDVHV PRUH WKDQ SHU.HQW RI WKH LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR
KDYH D SRVLWLYH GR.WRU¶V GLDJQRVLV LQ WKH 2+,3 GDWD IDLO WR UHSRUW KDYLQJ WKH GLVHDVH LQ WKH 13+6
GDWD 6LPLODUO\ ZH IUHTXHQWO\ ILQG WKDW PRUH WKDQ SHU.HQW RI LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR UHSRUW KDYLQJ
GLVHDVHV LQ WKH 13+6 KDYH QR .RUUHVSRQGLQJ GR.WRU¶V GLDJQRVLV LQ WKH 2+,3 UH.RUGV $ VHULHV RI
H[HU.LVHV DUH .RQGX.WHG WR DWWHPSW WR ERXQG WKH PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU DQG VKRZ WKDW ZKLOH WKHUH LV
OLNHO\ VRPH HUURU LQ WKH 2+,3 GDWD WKH VLJQLIL.DQW HUURU WKDW ZH ILQG .RPHV IURP WKH 13+6
:H WKHQ TXDQWLI\ WKH PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU XVLQJ WRROV IDPLOLDU IURP VWXGLHV RI
PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU LQ ODERU PDUNHW GDWD 2XU HVWLPDWHV RI WKH UDWLR RI WKH HUURU YDULDQ.H WR WRWDO
YDULDQ.H DUH RIWHQ ODUJHU WKDQ DQG LQ VRPH .DVHV DV ODUJH DV ,Q WKH IROORZLQJ VH.WLRQV ZH
WHVW DQG ILQG HYLGHQ.H IRU WKH ³MXVWLIL.DWLRQ K\SRWKHVLV´ DQG VKRZ KRZ WKH HUURU LQ VHOI UHSRUWHG
KHDOWK YDULHV ZLWK WKH LQWHQVLW\ RI WKH .RQGLWLRQ
$V D ILQDO .KH.N RQ WKH JHQHUDOLW\ RI RXU LQIHUHQ.H ZH LQYHVWLJDWH WKH UHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQ ZRUN DQG WKH GLIIHUHQW PHDVXUHV RI KHDOWK ZLWKLQ D VLPSOH PRGHO RI ODERU PDUNHW
SDUWL.LSDWLRQ :H .RPSDUH GLIIHUHQW HVWLPDWLRQ VWUDWHJLHV XVHG LQ SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV LQ.OXGLQJ
XVLQJ REMH.WLYH PHDVXUHV RI KHDOWK DV LQVWUXPHQWV IRU PRUH VXEMH.WLYH PHDVXUHV &RQVLVWHQW
ZLWK WKH SUHYLRXV OLWHUDWXUH WKH ,9 HVWLPDWHV RI WKH HIIH.W RI KHDOWK RQ SDUWL.LSDWLRQ DUH XQLIRUPO\
PX.K ODUJHU WKDQ WKHLU 2/6 .RXQWHUSDUWV
7KH 'DWD
7KH 13+6 LV D QDWLRQDOO\ UHSUHVHQWDWLYH VXUYH\ RI RYHU &DQDGLDQ
KRXVHKROGV .RQGX.WHG LQ WKH ODVW WKUHH TXDUWHUV RI DQG ILUVW TXDUWHU RI :KLOH VRPH
PLQLPDO LQIRUPDWLRQ ZDV .ROOH.WHG IRU DOO PHPEHUV RI HD.K KRXVHKROG D UDQGRPO\ VHOH.WHG
PHPEHU \HDUV RI DJH RU ROGHU SDUWL.LSDWHG LQ WKH LQGHSWK LQWHUYLHZ 7KH LQIRUPDWLRQ
.ROOH.WHG LQ.OXGHG YDULRXV PHDVXUHV RI KHDOWK VWDWXV XVH RI KHDOWK VHUYL.HV DQG WKH SUHVHQ.H RI
YDULRXV ULVN ID.WRUV $ OLPLWHG DPRXQW RI GHPRJUDSKL. DQG VR.LRH.RQRPL. LQIRUPDWLRQ ZDV DOVR
.ROOH.WHG
-XVW RYHU KRXVHKROGV ZHUH LQWHUYLHZHG IRU WKH 2QWDULR VDPSOH ,QGLYLGXDOV
.RPSOHWLQJ WKH LQGHSWK LQWHUYLHZ ZHUH UHTXHVWHG WR VXSSO\ WKHLU 2QWDULR KHDOWK QXPEHU ZKL.K
LV XVHG IRU DOO SXEOL.O\ LQVXUHG VHUYL.HV LQ WKH SURYLQ.H 7KH .ODLPV UH.RUGV IRU WKHVH LQGLYLGXDOV
IRU WKH WZR \HDUV SULRU WR WKHLU 13+6 LQWHUYLHZ GDWH KDYH EHHQ OLQNHG WR WKH VXUYH\ UHVSRQVHV E\
WKH 2QWDULR 0LQLVWU\ RI +HDOWK LQ .ROODERUDWLRQ ZLWK 6WDWLVWL.V &DQDGD 1LQHW\WKUHH SHU.HQW RI
WKH 2QWDULR UHVSRQGHQWV SURYLGHG WKHLU KHDOWK .DUG QXPEHUV DQG .RQVHQWHG WR WKH OLQNDJH RI WKH
UH.RUGV 7KH 2QWDULR 0LQLVWU\ RI +HDOWK .RQVLGHUHG SHU.HQW RI WKHVH QXPEHUV DV YDOLG IRU
OLQNDJH :LOOLDPV HW DO 7KH PDLQ HOHPHQWV RI WKH 2+,3 GDWD DUH WKH .RGH IRU VHUYL.H
SURYLGHG WKH GDWH RI VHUYL.H RQH DVVR.LDWHG GLDJQRVLV DQG IHH SDLG 7KHUHIRUH GLDJQRVLV RI D
QHZ GLVHDVH DQGRU WUHDWPHQW RI DQ RQJRLQJ .RQGLWLRQ WKDW LQYROYHG D KHDOWK .DUH SURYLGHU WKDW
.DQ .ODLP XQGHU 2+,3 VKRXOG EH .DSWXUHG LQ WKHVH GDWD
([.OXGHG IURP WKLV 2+,3 GDWDEDVH DUH .ODLPV XQGHU WKH SURYLQ.LDO ZRUNHU¶V .RPSHQVDWLRQ SURJUDP DQG
UHPXQHUDWLRQ WR SK\VL.LDQV WKURXJK $OWHUQDWLYH )HH 3ODQV $)3V 7KH ODWWHU DUH .RQ.HQWUDWHG LQ WKUHH KRVSLWDOV
OR.DWHG LQ .LQJVWRQ 7RURQWR 6DXOW 6WH 0DULH DQG +HDOWK 6HUYL.H 2UJDQL]DWLRQV OR.DWHG SULPDU\ LQ WKH +DPLOWRQ
:HQWZRUWK DQG :DWHUORR DUHDV $)3V D..RXQW IRU URXJKO\ SHU.HQW RI WRWDO SK\VL.LDQ H[SHQGLWXUHV :H KDYH UHUXQ
WKH PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU H[HU.LVHV WDEOH D RI RXU DQDO\VLV H[.OXGLQJ WKH &HQWUDO :HVW 5HJLRQ RI 2QWDULR LH
H[.OXGLQJ +DPLOWRQ:HQWZRUWK DQG :DWHUORR DUHDV DQG IRXQG QR VLJQLIL.DQW GLIIHUHQ.H LQ RXU UHVXOWV 7KHVH UHVXOWV
DUH DYDLODEOH RQ UHTXHVW :H DUH .XUUHQWO\ JDWKHULQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI :RUNHU¶V &RPSHQVDWLRQ .ODLPV
E\ DLOPHQW LQ DQ DWWHPSW WR GHWHUPLQH WKH ELDV WKDW PLJKW UHVXOW IURP WKH H[.OXVLRQ RI WKHVH .ODLPV
$OO RI WKH 2QWDULR REVHUYDWLRQV IURP WKH 13+6 WKDW ZHUH YDOLG IRU OLQNDJH WR WKH
UHVSRQGHQW¶V 2+,3 UH.RUGV DUH XVHG LQ WKH PDMRULW\ RI RXU DQDO\VLV ,Q DQDO\VLV IR.XVLQJ RQ WKH
UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ KHDOWK DQG ODERU VXSSO\ GH.LVLRQV KRZHYHU ZH H[.OXGH WKRVH XQGHU DJH
DQG WKRVH JRLQJ WR V.KRRO
6RPH JHQHUDO .KDUD.WHULVWL.V RI WKH VDPSOH DUH UHSRUWHG LQ 7DEOH :H DVVHVV WKH
D..XUD.\ RI WKH UHSRUWHG LQ.LGHQ.H RI WKH DLOPHQWV OLVWHG KHUH 7KHVH DLOPHQWV UHSUHVHQWLQJ
SHU.HQW RI WKH .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV .DSWXUHG LQ WKH 13+6 ZHUH VHOH.WHG WR EH .RPSDUDEOH ZLWK
.RQGLWLRQV XVHG LQ SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV RI VHOIUHSRUWHG KHDOWK 7KH .RQGLWLRQV WKDW ZHUH QRW
LQ.OXGHG DUH IRRG DOOHUJLHV RWKHU DOOHUJLHV HSLOHSV\ D.QH $O]KHLPHU¶V GLVHDVH KHDUW GLVHDVH DQG
XULQDU\ LQ.RQWLQHQ.H
7R UHODWH WKHVH UHSRUWV WR WKH 2+,3 UH.RUGV WKH .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV ZHUH PDSSHG LQWR
,&' .RGHV 7KLV SUR.HVV LV QRW .RPSOHWHO\ VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG DV QHLWKHU LV WKH UHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQ WKH DLOPHQWV DQG WKH .RGHV VHOI HYLGHQW QRU LV ZKL.K .RGHV JHW UHSRUWHG DV D VSH.LIL.
.RQGLWLRQ QH.HVVDULO\ VWDEOH D.URVV KHDOWK .DUH SURYLGHUV $V D UHVXOW ZH .RQVWUX.WHG WZR
PDSSLQJV WKDW DOWHUQDWLYHO\ DWWHPSW WR WDNH D EURDG DQG YHU\ SUH.LVH YLHZ RI WKH UHODWLRQVKLS
7KH DOJRULWKPV DUH UHSRUWHG LQ $SSHQGL[ $
$Q LPSRUWDQW TXHVWLRQ LV ZKHWKHU WKHVH 2+,3 .RGHV D.WXDOO\ UHSUHVHQW WKH REMH.W WKDW WKH
13+6 DWWHPSWV WR PHDVXUH" $V QRWHG LQ WKH LQWURGX.WLRQ WKH 13+6 TXHVWLRQ LQYHVWLJDWHV WKH
.XUUHQW H[SHULHQ.H RI D ORQJWHUP .RQGLWLRQ DV GLDJQRVHG E\ D KHDOWK SURIHVVLRQDO 5HVSRQGHQWV
DUH UHPLQGHG WKDW ³ORQJWHUP´ DLOPHQWV ODVW PRQWKV RU PRUH &HUWDLQO\ WKH LQVLVWHQ.H WKDW WKH
DLOPHQW KDV EHHQ GLDJQRVHG E\ D SURIHVVLRQDO VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH 2+,3 GDWD VKRXOG .DSWXUH WKH
HYHQW $OWKRXJK SURIHVVLRQDOV DUH QRW H[SOL.LWO\ GHILQHG DW WKLV SRLQW LQ WKH LQWHUYLHZ DW DQ HDUOLHU
VWDJH LQGLYLGXDOV DUH TXHVWLRQHG DERXW WKHLU LQWHUD.WLRQV ZLWK SURIHVVLRQDOV RYHU WKH ODVW
PRQWKV LQ.OXGLQJ JHQHUDO SUD.WLWLRQHUV DQG IDPLO\ SK\VL.LDQV H\H VSH.LDOLVWV RWKHU PHGL.DO
GR.WRUV RU QXUVHV GHQWLVWV .KLURSUD.WRUV SK\VLRWKHUDSLVWV VR.LDO ZRUNHUV SV\.KRORJLVWV DQG
VSHH.K DXGLRORJ\ RU R..XSDWLRQDO WKHUDSLVWV 7KH VHUYL.HV RI DOO RI WKHVH SURIHVVLRQDOV H[.HSW
IRU GHQWLVWV VR.LDO ZRUNHUV DQG VSHH.K WKHUDSLVWV DUH .RYHUHG E\ 2+,3 7KH SKUDVLQJ DQG
VWUX.WXUH RI WKH TXHVWLRQV DOVR GUDZV D GLVWLQ.WLRQ EHWZHHQ KHDOWK SURIHVVLRQDOV DQG DOWHUQDWLYH
KHDOWK SURYLGHUV VX.K DV D.XSXQ.WXULVWV DQG KRPHRSDWKL. PHGL.DO GR.WRUV ZKR DUH DOVR QRW
.RYHUHG E\ WKH 2+,3 SURJUDP 2XU IR.XV RQ PHGL.DO .RQGLWLRQV PDNHV LW XQOLNHO\ WKDW WKHVH
H[.OXVLRQV LQ 2+,3 .RYHUDJH OHDG WR WKH PLVPDW.KHV EHWZHHQ WKH 13+6 YDULDEOHV DQG WKH 2+,3
.RGHV WKDW ZH XQ.RYHU
$QRWKHU LVVXH LV ZKHWKHU WKH \HDU ZLQGRZ IRU WKH 2+,3 .RGHV LV VXIIL.LHQW WR .DSWXUH
GLDJQRVHVWUHDWPHQWV XQGHUO\LQJ WKH UHVSRQVHV WR WKH 13+6 TXHVWLRQ ,W VHHPV UHDVRQDEOH WKDW
³.XUUHQW´ DLOPHQWV DUH OLNHO\ WR KDYH EHHQ GLDJQRVHG RU WUHDWHG LQ WKH SDVW \HDUV DOWKRXJK WKLV
ZLOO .OHDUO\ YDU\ ZLWK WKH GLVHDVH )RU H[DPSOH LQGLYLGXDOV UHSRUWLQJ .XUUHQW LQ.LGHQ.H RI .DQ.HU
ZLOO SUHVXPDEO\ KDYH KDG VRPH WUHDWPHQW LQ WKLV SHULRG /HVV .HUWDLQ ZLOO EH D .RQGLWLRQ VX.K DV
DUWKULWLV ZKL.K PD\ KDYH EHHQ GLDJQRVHG \HDUV DJR DQG LV QRW .XUUHQWO\ UH.HLYLQJ D.WLYH
WUHDWPHQW 0RUH JHQHUDOO\ ZH .DQ .RPSDUH WKH HUURU LQ WKH 13+6 UHVSRQVHV E\ GLVHDVH WR
GLV.RYHU LI DQ\ SDWWHUQV DUH .RQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKHVH DUJXPHQWV
3UHYLRXV /LWHUDWXUH
:KLOH WKHUH LV D UHDVRQDEO\ ODUJH OLWHUDWXUH LQYHVWLJDWLQJ WKH .RUUHVSRQGHQ.H EHWZHHQ
LQGLYLGXDOV¶ UHVSRQVHV WR TXHVWLRQV DERXW WKHLU JHQHUDO KHDOWK RU XVH RI KHDOWK VHUYL.HV DQG
PHGL.DO UH.RUGV RU SK\VL.LDQ¶V DSSUDLVDOV WKHUH DUH UHODWLYHO\ IHZ SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV RI WKH
UHOLDELOLW\ RI VHOIUHSRUWV RI .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV +DUORZ DQG /LQHW VXUYH\ WKH OLWHUDWXUH
6HH IRU H[DPSOH 'Z\HU DQG 0LW.KHOO
DQG XQ.RYHU RQO\ VL[ VWXGLHV WKDW DWWHPSW WR YDOLGDWH WKLV VRUW RI GDWD $ .RPPRQ IHDWXUH RI WKLV
UHVHDU.K LV WKDW LW LQYROYHV UHODWLYHO\ XQUHSUHVHQWDWLYH VDPSOHV )RU H[DPSOH HQUROOHHV LQ D
VLQJOH $PHUL.DQ KHDOWK LQVXUDQ.H RUJDQL]DWLRQ VHUYH DV WKH EDVLV RI PRUH WKDQ RQH RI WKHVH
SDSHUV 3UHVXPDEO\ WKH VHOH.WLRQ RI LQGLYLGXDOV LQWR WKHVH SODQV OLPLWV WKH XQLYHUVDOLW\ RI DQ\
LQIHUHQ.H JDLQHG IURP WKHVH VDPSOHV 2WKHU VWXGLHV IR.XV RQ LQGLYLGXDOV LQ D SDUWL.XODU .LW\ RU
DUHD DQGRU DUH EDVHG RQ TXLWH VPDOO VDPSOHV $ .OHDU DGYDQWDJH KHUH LV WKDW EH.DXVH WKHUH LV D
VLQJOH DQG XQLYHUVDO KHDOWK LQVXUDQ.H SODQ LQ 2QWDULR DQG WKH 13+6 LV D UHSUHVHQWDWLYH VDPSOH RI
WKH SURYLQ.H RXU LQIHUHQ.H LV PX.K PRUH OLNHO\ WR SURYLGH JHQHUDO LQVLJKWV WR WKH SUREOHPV RI
PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU LQ WKHVH VRUWV RI YDULDEOHV
$V QRWHG E\ +DUORZ DQG /LQHW VRPH RI WKHVH VWXGLHV DUH DOVR OLPLWHG E\ WKH
VWUDWHJLHV XVHG WR DQDO\]H WKH GDWD )RU H[DPSOH VRPH SDSHUV .RQGLWLRQ LQIHUHQ.H RQ WKH UHSRUW
RI DQ DLOPHQW LQ D PHGL.DO UH.RUG WKXV LJQRULQJ HUURU DULVLQJ IURP IDOVH SRVLWLYHV $OWHUQDWLYHO\
RWKHUV .RQGLWLRQ RQ UHVSRQGHQWV UHSRUWV RI DLOPHQWV WKXV RPLWWLQJ IDOVH QHJDWLYHV
7ZR VWDWLVWL.V .RPPRQO\ UHSRUWHG LQ WKHVH VWXGLHV DUH WKH SHU.HQWDJH RI PHGL.DO UH.RUGV
RI D GLVHDVH PDW.KHG ZLWK D VXUYH\ UHSRUW DQG WKH SHU.HQWDJH RI LQWHUYLHZ UHSRUWV RI GLVHDVH
PDW.KHG ZLWK D PHGL.DO UH.RUG 7KHVH KDYH EHHQ LQWHUSUHWHG DV PHDVXUHV RI WKH GHJUHH RI XQGHU
DQG RYHUUHSRUWLQJ RI VSH.LIL. DLOPHQWV UHVSH.WLYHO\ &RPSDULVRQ RI WKHVH VWDWLVWL.V D.URVV
VWXGLHV RU WR VLPLODU VWDWLVWL.V .RQVWUX.WHG IURP WKH 13+6 GDWD LV SUREOHPDWL. KRZHYHU GXH WR
.URVVVWXG\ GLIIHUHQ.HV LQ WKH ,&' .RGLQJ RI VSH.LIL. GLVHDVHV DQGRU LQ WKH TXHVWLRQV DVNHG RI
UHVSRQGHQWV )RU H[DPSOH ZH WDNH D EURDGHU YLHZ RI ³XO.HUV´ WKDQ GRHV 0DGRZ
LQ.OXGLQJ HVRSKDJHDO DQG RWKHU SHSWL. XO.HUV LQ DGGLWLRQ WR VWRPD.K DQG GXRGHQDO XO.HUV LQ WKH
.DWHJRU\ 2XU .RGLQJ ZDV .KRVHQ WR EH .RQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH TXHVWLRQ DVNHG LQ WKH 13+6
SUHVXPDEO\ WKH VXUYH\ LQVWUXPHQW LQ WKH 0DGRZ VWXG\ DOORZHG VRPH GLVWLQ.WLRQ EHWZHHQ
GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI XO.HUV 6WUL.WO\ VSHDNLQJ RXU UHVXOWV ZLOO EH .RPSDUDEOH WR 0DGRZ¶V LI WKHUH LV
QR KHWHURJHQHLW\ LQ DQ\ PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU E\ W\SH RI XO.HU WKDW LV LI WKLV LV WUXH ZH .DQ DWWULEXWH
DQ\ GLVVLPLODULW\ EHWZHHQ RXU DQG 0DGRZ¶V UHVXOWV WR GLIIHUHQ.HV LQ WKH UHSUHVHQWDWLYHQHVV RI WKH
VDPSOHV UDWKHU WKDQ GLIIHUHQ.HV LQ WKH REMH.WV EHLQJ DQDO\]HG
:LWK WKHVH TXDOLIL.DWLRQV LQ PLQG LQ $SSHQGL[ % ZH SUHVHQW WKHVH PHDVXUHV RI XQGHUDQG
RYHUUHSRUWLQJ RI .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV IRU WKH 13+6 VDPSOH DQG .RPSDUH WKH UHVXOWV ZKHUH
SRVVLEOH WR WKRVH LQ SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV )RU VRPH GLVHDVHV LQ VRPH VWXGLHV WKHUH LV D IDLU ELW RI
DJUHHPHQW ZLWK WKH UHVXOWV IURP WKH 13+6 ZKLOH LQ RWKHU .DVHV YHU\ OLWWOH 7KHUH LV SHUKDSV
VRPHZKDW JUHDWHU D..RUG LQ WKH UHODWLYH OHYHOV RI WKH VWDWLVWL.V D.URVV DLOPHQWV &RQGLWLRQV VX.K
DV EURQ.KLWLV DQG VLQXVLWLV ZRXOG DSSHDU WR EH PRUH SURQH WR RYHUUHSRUWLQJ ZKLOH .DQ.HU DSSHDUV
WR EH PRUH SURQH WR XQGHUUHSRUWLQJ
7KHUH LV DOVR RQH SUHYLRXV VWXG\ RI RXU 13+6 GDWD +X[ HW DO PDW.K LQGLYLGXDOV
LQ WKH 13+6 WR YDULRXV GLDEHWHV GDWDEDVHV IRU 2QWDULR 0DW.KLQJ UHJLVWHUHG GLDEHWL.V WR WKH
VXUYH\ UHVSRQVHV WKH\ ILQG .RQVLGHUDEOH XQGHUUHSRUWLQJ RI GLDEHWHV LQ WKH 13+6 7KHLU UHVXOWV
DUH .RQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU ZH UHSRUW IRU WKLV .RQGLWLRQ EHORZ
$Q 2YHUYLHZ RI 6HOI5HSRUWHG 6XEMH.WLYH DQG 2EMH.WLYH 0HDVXUHV RI +HDOWK
:KLOH VXEMH.WLYH DQG REMH.WLYH VHOIUHSRUWV RI KHDOWK VWDWXV DUH LQWHQGHG WR PHDVXUH
GLIIHUHQW REMH.WV LW LV RI LQWHUHVW WR GLV.RYHU WKHLU UHODWLRQVKLS VLQ.H XOWLPDWHO\ ZH DUH LQWHUHVWHG
LQ WKH ODWHQW YDULDEOH ZRUN .DSD.LW\ IRU ZKL.K HLWKHU PLJKW VHUYH DV D SUR[\ ,Q )LJXUHV D
WKURXJK P ZH SURYLGH DQ RYHUYLHZ RI WKLV UHODWLRQVKLS E\ JUDSKLQJ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI
UHVSRQVHV WR D VHOIUHSRUW RI JOREDO KHDOWK E\ WKH VHOIUHSRUWHG LQ.LGHQ.H RI RXU GLVHDVHV 7KH
JOREDO KHDOWK TXHVWLRQ LV IDLUO\ VWDQGDUG DVNLQJ ³+RZ ZRXOG \RX .RQVLGHU \RXU KHDOWK"´ DQG
DOORZLQJ IRU WKH SRVVLEOH DQVZHUV ([.HOOHQW 9HU\ *RRG *RRG )DLU DQG 3RRU
7KH JHQHUDO SDWWHUQ LQ WKH ILJXUHV LV WKDW LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWK D JLYHQ GLVHDVH KDYH D VLPLODU
VKDSHG GLVWULEXWLRQ WR WKRVH ZKR GRQ¶W H[.HSW WKDW LW LV VKLIWHG WR WKH ULJKW WKDW LV WRZDUGV SRRUHU
KHDOWK )RU H[DPSOH RI WKH UHVSRQGHQWV ZLWK D GLDJQRVLV RI .DQ.HU SHU.HQW .RQVLGHU
WKHPVHOYHV WR EH LQ H[.HOOHQW KHDOWK SHU.HQW LQ YHU\ JRRG SHU.HQW LQ JRRG KHDOWK
SHU.HQW LQ IDLU KHDOWK DQG SHU.HQW LQ SRRU KHDOWK ,Q .RPSDULVRQ DPRQJ LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWKRXW D
GLDJQRVLV RI .DQ.HU SHU.HQW .RQVLGHU WKHPVHOYHV LQ H[.HOOHQW KHDOWK SHU.HQW LQ YHU\ JRRG
SHU.HQW LQ JRRG SHU.HQW LQ IDLU DQG SHU.HQW LQ SRRU KHDOWK 1RW VXUSULVLQJO\ IRU PDQ\ RI
WKH OHVV VHYHUH .RQGLWLRQV VX.K DV PLJUDLQHV DQG VLQXVLWLV WKH WZR GLVWULEXWLRQV DUH DOPRVW
LQGLVWLQJXLVKDEOH
7KH SDWWHUQ KROGV XS IRU DOO WKH DLOPHQWV ZLWK WKH SRVVLEOH H[.HSWLRQ RI VWURNHV 7KH
µZLWKRXW VWURNHV¶ JURXS KDV DV LWV PRGH DW YHU\ JRRG KHDOWK ZKLOH WKH µZLWK VWURNH¶ JURXS KDV LW
PRGH DW IDLU KHDOWK 7KLV LV QRW XQH[SH.WHG DV VWURNHV .DQ EH OLIH WKUHDWHQLQJ DQG .DQ KDYH ORQJ
ODVWLQJKHDOWK OLPLWLQJ .RQVHTXHQ.HV +RZHYHU SHU.HQW RI WKH UHVSRQGHQWV ZKR KDG VWURNHV
.RQVLGHUHG WKHPVHOYHV WR EH LQ H[.HOOHQW KHDOWK 7KLV LV SHUKDSV VXUSULVLQJ 2QH SRVVLELOLW\ LV
WKDW WKH VWURNH ZDV VRPHWLPH DJR DQG WKH LQGLYLGXDO KDV VLQ.H DGRSWHG D KHDOWK\ OLIHVW\OH DQG LV
LQ EHWWHU KHDOWK WKDQ SULRU WR WKH VWURNH 7KDW VDLG WKH 13+6 TXHVWLRQ GHPDQGV WKDW WKH
LQGLYLGXDO .XUUHQWO\ EH H[SHULHQ.LQJ WKH ORQJWHUP .RQVHTXHQ.HV RI WKH VWURNH ZKL.K ZRXOG
VHHP WR VXJJHVW WKDW KHDOWK VKRXOG LQ VRPH VHQVH KDYH GHWHULRUDWHG $QRWKHU SRVVLELOLW\ LV WKDW
WKH LQGLYLGXDO¶V SRLQW RI UHIHUHQ.H KDV .KDQJHG VR WKDW ZKDW LV UHSRUWHG LV WKDW WKHVH LQGLYLGXDOV
DUH LQ H[.HOOHQW KHDOWK JLYHQ WKDW WKH\ KDYH KDG D VWURNH ,I WUXH WKLV ZRXOG EH DQ H[DPSOH RI
KRZ VXEMH.WLYH PHDVXUHV .DQ EH OHVV WKDQ VWUL.WO\ .RPSDUDEOH D.URVV LQGLYLGXDOV
7KXV LW VHHPV WKDW KDYLQJ DQ\ RI WKHVH .RQGLWLRQV WUDQVODWHV LQWR RQ DYHUDJH SRRUHU VHOI
DVVHVVHG KHDOWK DOWKRXJK QR RQH .RQGLWLRQ PDNHV DOO SHRSOH UHSRUW WKDW WKH\ DUH LQ WKH SRRUHVW RI
KHDOWK .DWHJRULHV $UH WKH GLIIHUHQ.HV VWDWLVWL.DOO\ VLJQLIL.DQW" :H KDYH UXQ RUGHUHG SURELWV RI
WKH JOREDO KHDOWK PHDVXUH RQ HD.K RI WKH VHOIUHSRUWHG KHDOWK GLDJQRVHV DV ZHOO DV RQ HGX.DWLRQ
VH[ D TXDUWL. LQ DJH DQG PDULWDO VWDWXV 7KH UHVXOWV VXJJHVW WKDW DOO WKH GLVHDVHV ZH LQYHVWLJDWH
ZLWK WKH H[.HSWLRQ RI .DWHUD.WV DUH VLJQLIL.DQWO\ .RUUHODWHG ZLWK VHOIUHSRUWLQJ ZRUVH KHDOWK
7R DWWHPSW WR .DOLEUDWH WKH 13+6 UHVSRQVHV WR PHDVXUHV RI VHOI UHSRUWHG KHDOWK DYDLODEOH
LQ RWKHU GDWD VHWV ZH .RPSDUH WKHVH GLVWULEXWLRQV RI VHOIDVVHVVHG KHDOWK WR .RPSDUDEOH
LQIRUPDWLRQ WDNHQ IURP +56 ZKL.K LV LQ.UHDVLQJO\ XVHG IRU UHVHDU.K RQ WKH LPSD.W RI KHDOWK RQ
UHWLUHPHQW LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV %H.DXVH WKH +56 LV IR.XVHG RQ ROGHU LQGLYLGXDOV ZH .RQVWUX.W
DQ 13+6 VDPSOH ZKL.K LV VLPLODU LQ DJH WR WKH +56 E\ UHVWUL.WLQJ WKH 13+6 VDPSOH WR
LQGLYLGXDOV DJHG
,W DSSHDUV WKDW WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI VHOIDVVHVVHG KHDOWK LV VLPLODU EHWZHHQ WKH WZR VDPSOHV
,Q ILJXUHV DI ZH SURYLGH VRPH UHSUHVHQWDWLYH LQIHUHQ.H IRU .DQ.HU ED.N SUREOHPV DQG
K\SHUWHQVLRQ 2XU UHVXOWV VXJJHVW WKDW IRU LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWKRXW VHOIUHSRUWHG .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV
WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI VHOIDVVHVVHG KHDOWK LV YHU\ VLPLODU )RU HD.K DLOPHQW WKH GLVWULEXWLRQV LQ WKH
13+6 DQG +56 DUH DOPRVW LGHQWL.DO ,Q WKH VH.RQG .ROXPQ ZH .RPSDUH WKH GLVWULEXWLRQV IRU
LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR GR VHOIUHSRUW WKHVH WKUHH .RQGLWLRQV 7KH GLVWULEXWLRQV IURP WKH 13+6 DQG +56
DUH JUHDWO\ VLPLODU DOWKRXJK LQ WKH .DVH RI .DQ.HU D KLJKHU SURSRUWLRQ RI LQGLYLGXDOV LQ WKH +56
UHSRUW ZRUVH KHDOWK WKDQ LQ WKH 13+6 2YHUDOO RXU .RPSDULVRQV EHWZHHQ WKH 13+6 DQG +56
OHDG XV WR .RQ.OXGH WKDW WKH WZR GDWD VHWV DUH VXIIL.LHQWO\ DOLNH WKDW WKH ILQGLQJV ZH UHSRUW KHUH
VKRXOG EH LQIRUPDWLYH WR UHVHDU.KHUV XVLQJ +56 GDWD
7KHVH UHVXOWV DUH DYDLODEOH IURP WKH DXWKRUV RQ UHTXHVW
0HDVXUHPHQW (UURU LQ 2EMH.WLYH 0HDVXUHV RI +HDOWK
:H EHJLQ ZLWK WKH VLPSOH VXPPDU\ SURYLGHG E\ WKH .RUUHODWLRQ .RHIIL.LHQW EHWZHHQ
UHVSRQGHQWV¶ DQVZHUV WR WKH REMH.WLYH KHDOWK TXHVWLRQV DQG WKH SUHVHQ.H RI D GLDJQRVLV .RGH LQ
WKH 2+,3 DGPLQLVWUDWLYH GDWD IRU WKDW SDUWL.XODU GLVHDVH )RU H[DPSOH LQ WKH .DVH RI .DQ.HU ZH
.DO.XODWH WKH .RUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ ZKHWKHU WKH LQGLYLGXDO LQGL.DWHG WKH\ .XUUHQWO\ KDG .DQ.HU DQG
ZKHWKHU WKHUH LV DQ\ UH.RUG RI D SK\VL.LDQ GLDJQRVLQJ WKHP ZLWK .DQ.HU LQ WKH 2+,3
DGPLQLVWUDWLYH GDWD 7KHVH UHVXOWV DUH UHSRUWHG LQ 7DEOH 7KH .RUUHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ WKH LQWHUYLHZ
TXHVWLRQV DQG WKH GLDJQRVHV DUH PX.K ORZHU WKDQ RQH PLJKW H[SH.W )RU H[DPSOH WKH .RUUHODWLRQ
.RHIIL.LHQW IRU .DQ.HU LV IRU D VWURNH LV DQG IRU ED.N SUREOHPV LV 7KH ORZHVW LV
IRU VLQXVLWLV ZKL.K KDV D .RHIIL.LHQW RI ZKLOH WKH KLJKHVW LV IRU GLDEHWHV ZKL.K KDV D
.RHIIL.LHQW RI 7KH .RHIIL.LHQW LV RYHU IRU RQO\ RI WKH .RQGLWLRQV
7KHVH ORZ .RUUHODWLRQ .RHIIL.LHQWV .RXOG UHVXOW IURP WZR GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI HUURUV )LUVW
SHRSOH PD\ UHSRUW KDYLQJ D SUREOHP WKDW GRHVQ¶W DSSHDU LQ WKH DGPLQLVWUDWLYH GDWD IDOVH
SRVLWLYHV 6H.RQG SHRSOH GLDJQRVHG ZLWK D KHDOWK SUREOHP PD\ QRW UHYHDO LW LQ WKH VXUYH\ IDOVH
QHJDWLYHV 8VLQJ WKH ³QDUURZ PDSSLQJ´ RI GLDJQRVLV .RGHV LQ WDEOH D ZH UHSRUW WKH LQ.LGHQ.H
RI IDOVH SRVLWLYHV DQG QHJDWLYHV LQ RXU GDWD .ROXPQV DQG DV ZHOO DV WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI IDOVH
SRVLWLYHV DV D IUD.WLRQ RI WKH QXPEHU RI SHRSOH ZKR UHSRUW KDYLQJ WKH GLVHDVH .ROXPQ
)RU .DQ.HU SHU.HQW RI WKRVH ZKR KDYH EHHQ GLDJQRVHG ZLWK .DQ.HU LQ WKH SDVW WZR
\HDUV GR QRW .ODLP WKDW WKH\ KDYH .DQ.HU IDOVH QHJDWLYH 2I WKH SHRSOH ZKR KDYH QR GLDJQRVHV
RI .DQ.HU LQ WKH SDVW WZR \HDUV KDOI RI D SHU.HQW .ODLPHG WKDW WKH\ KDG .DQ.HU IDOVH SRVLWLYH )RU
VWURNH SHU.HQW RI WKRVH GLDJQRVHG ZLWK KDYLQJ D VWURNH LQ WKH SDVW WZR \HDUV GR QRW .ODLP WR
:H GR QRW XVH WKH +56 VXUYH\ DV D .RPSDULVRQ JURXS EH.DXVH WKH TXHVWLRQV DVNHG LQ WKDW URXQG UHIHUUHG WR
.KDQJHV LQ .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV VLQ.H WKH SUHYLRXV URXQG DQG KHQ.H WKH TXHVWLRQV DUH QRW GLUH.WO\ .RPSDUDEOH
KDYH KDG D VWURNH $JDLQ RI D SHU.HQW RI SHRSOH ZKR DUH QRW GLDJQRVHG ZLWK D VWURNH GLG
.ODLP WR KDYH KDG D VWURNH )RU ED.N SUREOHPV SHU.HQW RI WKRVH GLDJQRVHG ZLWK ED.N
SUREOHPV .ODLPHG WKDW WKH\ GLG QRW KDYH D ED.N SUREOHP DQG D VLJQLIL.DQWO\ ODUJHU SHU.HQW RI
WKRVH ZLWKRXW ED.N SUREOHP GLDJQRVHV .ODLPHG WKDW WKH\ GLG KDYH D ED.N SUREOHP $ ODUJHU
LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH SRVLWLYHV DOVR DSSHDUV IRU RWKHU KHDOWK .RQGLWLRQV WKDW RQH PLJKW .RQVLGHU WR EH
PRUH VXEMH.WLYH RU PRUH OLNHO\ VHOI GLDJQRVHG )RU H[DPSOH SHU.HQW RI SHRSOH ZLWKRXW D
GLDJQRVHG PLJUDLQH .ODLPHG WR KDYH PLJUDLQHV )RU ERWK ED.N SUREOHPV DQG PLJUDLQHV IDOVH
SRVLWLYHV SOD\ D SDUWL.XODUO\ LPSRUWDQW UROH DV WKH\ UHSUHVHQW SHU.HQW DQG SHU.HQW
UHVSH.WLYHO\ RI DOO WKH SHRSOH ZKR .ODLPHG WKDW WKH\ KDG EHHQ GLDJQRVHG ZLWK VX.K SUREOHP
.ROXPQ WKUHH
)DOVH SRVLWLYHV .DQ DULVH ZKHQ WKH LQGLYLGXDOV DUH QRW WHOOLQJ WKH WUXWK DERXW WKHLU
.RQGLWLRQ WKH\ VHOI GLDJQRVHG WKHLU DLOPHQW WKH\ PLVXQGHUVWDQG WKHLU DLOPHQW DQG VHOI
UHSRUW LW DV DQRWKHU WKH\ DUH WHOOLQJ WKH WUXWK EXW ZHUH ODVW VHHQ E\ D GR.WRU IRU WKLV .RQGLWLRQ
PRUH WKDQ WZR \HDUV SULRU WR WKH LQWHUYLHZ \HDU UH.DOO WKDW WKH 2+,3 GDWD JRHV ED.N WZR \HDUV
WKH SK\VL.LDQ UH.RUGHG WKH ZURQJ GLDJQRVLV .RGH RU WKH GLDJQRVLV .RGH IRU D VH.RQG .RQGLWLRQ
WKDW WKH SDWLHQW SUHVHQWHG ZDV XVHG IRU ELOOLQJ SXUSRVHV RU WKH UHVSRQGHQWV UH.HQWO\ PRYHG WR
2QWDULR WKH UHVSRQGHQWV .RUUH.WO\ UHSRUWHG WKH .RQGLWLRQ EXW ZDV GLDJQRVHG E\ D SK\VL.LDQ LQ
WKHLU IRUPHU SURYLQ.H RU .RXQWU\ 7KH ILUVW WKUHH D..RXQWV DUH PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU LQ WKH VHOI
UHSRUWHG 13+6 YDULDEOH ZKLOH WKH ODVW WKUHH DUH PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU LQ WKH 2+,3 UH.RUGV )DOVH
QHJDWLYHV .DQ DULVH LI LQGLYLGXDOV GR QRW IHHO .RPIRUWDEOH UHSRUWLQJ WKHLU .RQGLWLRQV
LQGLYLGXDOV KDYH YHU\ VKRUW PHPRULHV WKH LQGLYLGXDO ZHUH .XUHG LQ WKH SHULRG EHWZHHQ WKH
GDWH RQ ZKL.K WKH WUHDWPHQW R..XUUHG DQG ZKHQ WKH VXUYH\ ZDV .RQGX.WHG RU WKH GR.WRU
PDNHV D SUHOLPLQDU\ GLDJQRVLV RI WKH .RQGLWLRQ WKDW XOWLPDWHO\ SURYHV WR EH IDOVH +HUH WKH ILUVW
WZR D..RXQWV DUH PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU LQ WKH 13+6 YDULDEOH ZKLOH WKH VH.RQG WZR DUH
PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU LQ WKH 2+,3 UH.RUGV
2I SDUWL.XODU .RQ.HUQ KHUH LV DQ\ PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU LQ WKH 2+,3 GDWD EH.DXVH LW
XQGHUPLQHV RXU YDOLGDWLRQ H[HU.LVH :H ZRXOG H[SH.W WKDW IRU .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV WKDW DUH PRUH
VHYHUH LQ QDWXUH VX.K DV .DQ.HU GLDEHWHV RU VWURNH WKH SRWHQWLDO IRU HUURU RQ WKH VLGH RI WKH
SK\VL.LDQ LV .RQVLGHUDEO\ UHGX.HG ,Q WKHVH .DVHV LQWHUD.WLRQ ZLWK WKH KHDOWK .DUH V\VWHP LV
UHTXLUHG IRU WUHDWPHQW DQG KHQ.H WKH OLNHOLKRRG WKDW 2+,3 UH.RUGV ZRXOG QRW D..XUDWHO\ UH.RUG
WKH .RQGLWLRQ LV ORZ 7KDW ZH VHH VX.K ODUJH HUURUV LQ ERWK WKHVH W\SHV RI .RQGLWLRQV DQG OHVV
VHYHUH .RQGLWLRQV VXJJHVWV WKDW PX.K RI WKH HUURU LV LQGHHG LQ WKH 13+6 DQG QRW WKH 2+,3 GDWD
1HYHUWKHOHVV ZH .RQGX.W D QXPEHU RI H[HU.LVHV LQ DQ DWWHPSW WR ERXQG WKH SRWHQWLDO .RQWULEXWLRQ
RI DQ\ 2+,3 EDVHG HUURU WR RXU UHVXOWV
)LUVW .RQVLGHU WKH ILIWK D..RXQW RI IDOVH SRVLWLYHV²WKH GR.WRU VLPSO\ HQWHUV WKH ZURQJ
GLDJQRVLV .RGH ZKHQ VKH LV HQWHULQJ KLVKHU ELOOLQJV 3HUKDSV VKH HQWHUV .RGH LQVWHDG RI
IRU PLJUDLQHV RU SHUKDSV VKH HQWHUV D .RGH IRU D .RQGLWLRQ YHU\ VLPLODU WR PLJUDLQHV EXW VWLOO
ZLWKLQ EURDG .ODVVLIL.DWLRQ RI GLVHDVHV RI WKH QHUYRXV V\VWHP DQG VHQVH RUJDQV 2QH ZD\ WR
GLV.RYHU LI WKLV W\SH RI HUURU LV LPSRUWDQW LV WR PDS WKH 13+6 .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV LQWR WKH ,&'
.RGHV LQ WKH 2+,3 GDWD XVLQJ WKH ³EURDG PDSSLQJ´ DOJRULWKP GLV.XVVHG DERYH VHH $SSHQGL[ $
7KH EURDGHU EDQGV ZLOO .DSWXUH DQ\ ³VPDOO GHYLDWLRQV´ IURP WKH WUXWK LQ WKH 2+,3 GDWD DQG WKXV
WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH SRVLWLYHV VKRXOG GH.UHDVH :H XVH QLQH PDMRU GLVHDVH .DWHJRULHV IURP WKH
,&' .ODVVLIL.DWLRQV WKDW JURXS GLVHDVHV LQWR PDMRU RUJDQV RU ERGLO\ V\VWHPV DIIH.WHG 1RWH WKDW
ZH VKRXOG DOVR H[SH.W WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH QHJDWLYHV WR EH PX.K KLJKHU XVLQJ WKHVH .DWHJRULHV
DV XVLQJ EURDGHU EDQGV LQ WKH 2+,3 GDWD ZLOO .DSWXUH GLVHDVHV QRW LQYHVWLJDWHG LQ WKH 13+6 GDWD
7KH UHVXOWV DUH UHSRUWHG LQ WDEOH E )RU VRPH DLOPHQWV WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH SRVLWLYHV LV YLUWXDOO\
XQ.KDQJHG HJ .DQ.HU GLDEHWHV DQG PLJUDLQHV ZKLOH IRU RWKHUV LW IDOOV VXEVWDQWLDOO\ DUWKULWLV
ED.N SUREOHPV VLQXV SUREOHPV ,Q HYHU\ .DVH KRZHYHU WKH SUREOHP RI IDOVH SRVLWLYHV LV QRW
HOLPLQDWHG DQG WKH\ UHPDLQ D QRQWULYLDO IUD.WLRQ RI VXUYH\ SRVLWLYHV 1RWH DOVR WKDW DV H[SH.WHG
WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH QHJDWLYHV LV QRZ PX.K KLJKHU IRU DOO DLOPHQWV 7KHUHIRUH WKHUH ZRXOG
DSSHDU WR EH D WUDGH RII KHUH EHWZHHQ VLJQLIL.DQW UHGX.WLRQV LQ IDOVH SRVLWLYHV IRU VRPH DLOPHQWV
DQG VLJQLIL.DQW LQ.UHDVHV LQ IDOVH QHJDWLYHV IRU DOO DLOPHQWV
7R H[SORUH WKH VL[WK D..RXQW RI IDOVH SRVLWLYHV ZH UHSHDWHG WKH DQDO\VLV RQ WKH VXE
VDPSOH RI UHVSRQGHQWV ZKR KDG DQ\ W\SH RI 2+,3 .ODLPUH.RUG LQ WKH SUHYLRXV \HDUV ,I DOO WKH
IDOVH SRVLWLYHV ZHUH GXH WR D ODUJH QXPEHU RI UHVSRQGHQWV KDYLQJ MXVW UH.HQWO\ PRYHG WR 2QWDULR
WKXV KDYLQJ QR 2+,3 UH.RUGV IRU RXU SXUSRVHV WKLV H[HU.LVH VKRXOG ILQG D VKDUS GH.UHDVH LQ WKH
LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH SRVLWLYHV ,Q ID.W WKH GH.UHDVH LQ IDOVH SRVLWLYHV LQ PRYLQJ WR WKLV VDPSOH LV
YHU\ VOLJKW LQGL.DWLQJ WKDW PLJUDWLRQ LV QRW GULYLQJ WKLV VRUW RI HUURU
:H QH[W DGGUHVV WKH WKLUG D..RXQW RI IDOVH QHJDWLYHV WKH SRVVLELOLW\ WKDW UHVSRQGHQWV ZHUH
.XUHG RI WKHLU DLOPHQW EHWZHHQ WKH WLPH RI GLDJQRVLVWUHDWPHQW DQG WKH WLPH RI WKH VXUYH\ *LYHQ
LQGLYLGXDOV DUH UHTXHVWHG WR UHSRUW WKH .XUUHQW LQ.LGHQ.H RI ORQJWHUP .RQGLWLRQ ZKL.K PXVW ODVW
PRQWKV RU PRUH OLPLWLQJ WKH 2+,3 UH.RUGV WR WKH \HDU GLUH.WO\ SUH.HGLQJ WKH LQWHUYLHZ VKRXOG
UHGX.H WKH QXPEHU RI IDOVH QHJDWLYHV GXH WR WKLV VRUW RI HUURU 7KH UHVXOWV UHSRUWHG LQ WDEOH .
LQGL.DWH WKDW LQ JHQHUDO WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH QHJDWLYHV LV UHGX.HG LPSRVLQJ WKLV .RQGLWLRQ WKH
UHGX.WLRQ DYHUDJLQJ DERXW SHU.HQW )RU PDQ\ RI WKH DLOPHQWV WKH GH.UHDVH LV TXLWH VPDOO
KRZHYHU DQG IRU VLQXV SUREOHPV WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH QHJDWLYHV D.WXDOO\ LQ.UHDVHV 1RWH DOVR
WKDW WKH ODUJHU SURSRUWLRQDWH UHGX.WLRQV DUH IRU VWURNHV GLDEHWHV DQG K\SHUWHQVLRQ 7KLV LV D OLWWOH
7KH UHVXOWV DUH QRW SUHVHQWHG DV D WDEOH EXW DUH DYDLODEOH IURP WKH DXWKRUV XSRQ UHTXHVW
%HWZHHQ DQG WKH DYHUDJH QXPEHU LI SHRSOH LPPLJUDWLQJ WR 2QWDULR ZDV IURP RWKHU SURYLQ.HV
&$16,0 /DEHO & DQG IURP DEURDG &$16,0 /DEHO ' 7KLV UHSUHVHQWV RI WKH SURYLQ.H¶V
SRSXODWLRQ &$16,0 /DEHO ' RYHU WKLV SHULRG 6WDWLVWL.V &DQDGD ZHE VLWH ZZZVWDW.DQDGD.D
VXUSULVLQJ VLQ.H D .RQGLWLRQ VX.K DV .KURQL. GLDEHWHV LV ODUJHO\ LQ.XUDEOH ,Q DGGLWLRQ ZKHQ ZH
OLPLW WKH 2+,3 GDWD WR RQH \HDU WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI IDOVH SRVLWLYHV LQ.UHDVHV DV H[SH.WHG 0RVW
LPSRUWDQWO\ WKHUH DUH VWLOO ODUJH GLV.UHSDQ.LHV EHWZHHQ WKH VHOIUHSRUWV DQG WKH DGPLQLVWUDWLYH
GDWD 7KHUHIRUH LW LV XQOLNHO\ WKDW WKLV VRUW RI HUURU LQ WKH 2+,3 GDWD OLHV EHKLQG WKH UHVXOWV LQ
WDEOH D
7KH IRXUWK D..RXQW RI IDOVH QHJDWLYHV DULVHV LI WKH SDWLHQW LV QRW SURSHUO\ RU .RPSOHWHO\
GLDJQRVHG RQ D ILUVW YLVLW WR D GR.WRU )RU H[DPSOH VXSSRVH D ZRPDQ JRHV WR D GR.WRU ZLWK D
OXPS LQ KHU EUHDVW DQG WKH GR.WRU VXVSH.WV .DQ.HU EXW LVQ¶W .HUWDLQ 2QH SRVVLELOLW\ LV WKDW WKH
GR.WRU LQLWLDOO\ .RGHV WKH ZRPHQ DV KDYLQJ D QHRSODVP RI XQVSH.LILHG RU XQ.HUWDLQ EHKDYLRU 7KLV
VKRXOG QRW SUH.LSLWDWH HUURU LQ WKH 2+,3 GDWD DV ORQJ DV WKH .RUUH.W .RGH LV HQWHUHG RQ VXEVHTXHQW
YLVLWV RQ.H WKH QDWXUH RI WKH OXPS LV GHWHUPLQHG 6XSSRVH LQVWHDG KRZHYHU WKDW WKH GR.WRU
LQLWLDOO\ .RGHV WKH ZRPDQ ZLWK D PDOLJQDQW QHRSODVP .DQ.HU RQ WKH EDVLV RI KLVKHU VXVSL.LRQ
,I WKH OXPS VXEVHTXHQWO\ WXUQV RXW WR EH EHQLJQ WKH 2+,3 GDWD ZLOO UH.RUG D .DQ.HU GLDJQRVLV
WKDW ZLOO QRW EH UHSRUWHG LQ WKH VXUYH\ 7R JDXJH WKH PDJQLWXGH RI WKLV W\SH RI HUURU ZH
UH.DO.XODWH WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH QHJDWLYHV UHTXLULQJ DW OHDVW WZR VHSDUDWH GLDJQRVHV RI D GLVHDVH
LQ WKH 2+,3 UH.RUGV WR EH .RXQWHG DV D SRVLWLYH 7KH UHVXOWV UHSRUWHG LQ 7DEOH G UHYHDO DQ
DYHUDJH UHGX.WLRQ LQ WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH QHJDWLYHV RI SHU.HQW 7KH ODUJHU GH.UHDVHV DUH IRU
DUWKULWLV SHU.HQW DQG PLJUDLQHV SHU.HQW ZKLOH WKH VPDOOHU DUH IRU .DWDUD.WV SHU.HQW
DQG XO.HUV SHU.HQW ,W LV QRW .OHDU KRZHYHU ZKHWKHU WKLV H[HU.LVH LV RQO\ .RPSHQVDWLQJ IRU
GLDJQRVWL. HUURUV LQ WKH 2+,3 GDWD $V ZH VKRZ EHORZ WKH D..XUD.\ RI UHVSRQGHQWV¶ VHOI UHSRUWV
LV SRVLWLYHO\ .RUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH VHYHULW\ RI WKHLU .RQGLWLRQ DV PHDVXUHG DV WKH QXPEHU RI 2+,3
UH.RUGV UH.RUGLQJ WKHLU GLVHDVH 7KLV UHVXOW ZKL.K KDV EHHQ UHSRUWHG LQ RWKHU VWXGLHV VXJJHVWV
ZH PD\ DOVR EH .RPSHQVDWLQJ IRU HUURUV RI UH.DOO LQ WKH 13+6 GDWD 2I .RXUVH LQ UHTXLULQJ WZR
LQVWDQ.HV RI GLDJQRVHV LQ WKH 2+,3 GDWD ZH DUH .RGLQJ VRPH LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR KDYH D SDUWL.XODU
.KURQL. .RQGLWLRQ DV QRW KDYLQJ WKH .RQGLWLRQ $V D UHVXOW WKH SHU.HQWDJH RI IDOVH SRVLWLYHV
.ROXPQV DQG LQ.UHDVHV LQ WKLV H[HU.LVH
$V D ILQDO .KH.N ZH DWWHPSW WR GHWHUPLQH ZKHWKHU WKH DEVROXWH PDJQLWXGHV RI WKH HUURUV LQ
WDEOH D DUH UHDVRQDEOH 7R GR WKLV ZH GR.XPHQW LQ.RQVLVWHQ.LHV LQ LQGLYLGXDOV¶ UHVSRQVHV
D.URVV TXHVWLRQV ZKL.K HIIH.WLYHO\ DVN WKH VDPH WKLQJ DQG H[DPLQH D TXHVWLRQ LQ WKH VXUYH\
IRU ZKL.K WKH 2+,3 GDWD DUH DOPRVW VXUHO\ WKH µWUXWK¶ ,Q WKH ILUVW H[HU.LVH ZH H[DPLQH WKH
UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ UHSRUWV RI WKH XVH RI GUXJV WR WUHDW D JLYHQ .RQGLWLRQ DQG WKH UHSRUWV RI WKH
.RQGLWLRQ LWVHOI 2QH RI WKH 13+6 TXHVWLRQV DVNV LI ³LQ WKH SDVW PRQWK GLG «WDNH DQ\ RI D OLVW
RI WKH IROORZLQJ PHGL.DWLRQV"´ 7KH DQVZHUV UHYHDO WKDW SHU.HQW RI WKH UHVSRQGHQWV ZKR
.ODLPHG WR EH WDNLQJ LQVXOLQ .ODLPHG QRW WR KDYH GLDEHWHV DQG SHU.HQW ZKR .ODLPHG WR KDYH
WDNHQ ³SLOOV WR .RQWURO GLDEHWHV´ GLG QRW UHSRUW KDYLQJ GLDEHWHV 6L[WHHQ SHU.HQW ZKR .ODLPHG WR
KDYH WDNHQ EORRG SUHVVXUH PHGL.DWLRQ GLG QRW UHSRUW K\SHUWHQVLRQ DQG SHU.HQW RI WKRVH
.ODLPLQJ WR KDYH WDNHQ DVWKPD PHGL.DWLRQ GLG QRW UHSRUW KDYLQJ DVWKPD 7KHVH HUURUV PD\ EH
VOLJKWO\ RYHUVWDWHG DV WKHUH DUH D IHZ .RQGLWLRQV QDPHO\ SUHJQDQ.\ UHODWHG JHVWDWLRQDO GLDEHWHV
RU K\SHUWHQVLRQ ZKL.K ZRXOG UHTXLUH PHGL.DWLRQ EXW QRW EH DVVR.LDWHG ZLWK WKH .KURQL.
.RQGLWLRQ 7KDW VDLG HYHQ ZLWKLQ WKH 13+6 WKHUH DUH VLJQLIL.DQW GLV.UHSDQ.LHV LQ LQGLYLGXDOV¶
UHVSRQVHV VXJJHVWLQJ D .RQVLGHUDEOH DPRXQW RI HUURU LQ WKH UHSRUW RI .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV
,Q WKH VH.RQG H[HU.LVH ZH .DO.XODWH WKH HUURU LQ UHVSRQVHV WR WKH TXHVWLRQ ³+DYH \RX VHHQ
D PHGL.DO GR.WRU RU EHHQ DQ RYHUQLJKW SDWLHQW LQ D KRVSLWDO LQ WKH SDVW PRQWKV´ 6LQ.H WKH
GR.WRU RU KRVSLWDO ZRXOG QHHG WR ELOO 2+,3 WR EH SDLG DQG WKH UHIHUHQ.H SHULRG IRU WKH TXHVWLRQ LV
ZLWKLQ WKH ERXQGV RI RXU 2+,3 GDWD WKHUH LV D PX.K VPDOOHU .KDQ.H RI ³VSXULRXV´ IDOVH QHJDWLYH
RU IDOVH SRVLWLYH UHVSRQVHV WR WKLV TXHVWLRQ +HUH ZH ILQG WKDW SHU.HQW RI WKRVH ZKR KDG QR
2+,3 UH.RUG RI DQ\ NLQG UHSRUWHG KDYLQJ EHHQ WR WKH GR.WRU RU KRVSLWDO IDOVH SRVLWLYHV DQG
SHU.HQW RI WKRVH ZLWK 2+,3 UH.RUGV .ODLPHG WKH\ KDG QR YLVLWV IDOVH QHJDWLYHV 6LPLODUO\
SHU.HQW RI UHVSRQGHQWV ZKR KDG QR UH.RUG RI VHHLQJ DQ H\H GR.WRU LQ WKH SDVW PRQWKV .ODLP WR
KDYH EHHQ WR VHHQ RQH DQG SHU.HQW RI WKRVH ZKR KDYH DQ 2+,3 UH.RUG IURP DQ H\H GR.WRU
.ODLP WR KDYH QRW JRQH
7KH RQH VRXU.H RI 2+,3 HUURU ZH DUH XQDEOH WR LQYHVWLJDWH LV WKH IRXUWK D..RXQW RI IDOVH
SRVLWLYHV WKH SRVVLELOLW\ WKDW WKH LQGLYLGXDO ZDV GLDJQRVHG EHIRUH WKH WZR\HDU ZLQGRZ RI WKH
2+,3 GDWD EXW .XUUHQWO\ VXIIHUV WKH ORQJWHUP .RQVHTXHQ.HV RI WKH GLVHDVH 7KLV VRUW RI HUURU LV
SRWHQWLDOO\ PRUH D SUREOHP IRU DLOPHQWV VX.K DV DUWKULWLV WKDQ IRU DLOPHQWV VX.K DV .DQ.HU $V D
.RQVHTXHQ.H WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ IDOVH SRVLWLYHV IRU .RQGLWLRQV LQ WKH IRUPHU JURXS PXVW EH
LQWHUSUHWHG ZLWK .DUH
4XDQWLI\LQJ WKH 0HDVXUHPHQW (UURU LQ 6HOI5HSRUWHG +HDOWK
:H QH[W HVWLPDWH WKH PDJQLWXGH RI WKH PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU LQ VHOIUHSRUWHG .KURQL.
.RQGLWLRQV GUDZLQJ RQ WKH IUDPHZRUN SUHVHQWHG LQ %RXQG HW DO DQG %RXQG HW DO
6XSSRVH WKDW ZH DUH LQWHUHVWHG LQ HVWLPDWLQJ WKH PRGHO
\ = ; β +ε
:KHQ .RPSXWLQJ WKH IDOVH SRVLWLYHV DQG QHJDWLYHV ZH H[.OXGH DOO QRQSK\VL.LDQ 2+,3 UH.RUGV QDPHO\ KHDOWK
SUD.WLRQHUV IURP WKH VDPSOH 7KLV LV QH.HVVDU\ WR SURSHUO\ PDW.K WKH TXHVWLRQ LQ WKH 13+6 ZKL.K DVNV DERXW
.RQVXOWDWLRQV ZLWK D PHGL.DO GR.WRU
7KH JHQHUDOO\ KLJKHU LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH SRVLWLYHV KHUH WKDQ LQ WDEOH . PD\ EH UHODWHG WR WKH ID.W WKDW WKLV
TXHVWLRQ DVNV LQGLYLGXDOV WR SOD.H DQ HYHQW ZLWKLQ D IL[HG LQWHUYDO LQ WKH SDVW ZKLOH WKH TXHVWLRQV DERXW .KURQL.
DLOPHQWV DVN DERXW .XUUHQW H[SHULHQ.H
1RWH DOVR WKDW D .RPSDULVRQ RI WDEOHV D DQG E UHYHDOV WKDW WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH SRVLWLYHV IDOOV VXEVWDQWLDOO\ IRU
DLOPHQWV VX.K DV DUWKULWLV XVLQJ WKH EURDGHU PDSSLQJ RI 2+,3 .RGHV &KDQJLQJ WKH PDSSLQJ SUHVXPDEO\ GRHV QRW
D..RXQW IRU GLDJQRVHV WKDW R..XUUHG RXWVLGH WKH \HDU ZLQGRZ RI WKH 2+,3 GDWD 7KHUHIRUH VRPH QRQWULYLDO SDUW RI
WKH IDOVH SRVLWLYHV IRU WKHVH DLOPHQWV DOPRVW VXUHO\ GRHV QRW DULVH IURP WKLV VRXU.H
2QH RI WKH H[SODQDWRU\ YDULDEOHV KRZHYHU VD\ [L LV XQREVHUYDEOH ,QVWHDG ZH REVHUYH [L ZKL.K
PHDVXUHV [L ZLWK HUURU 0RUH VSH.LIL.DOO\
[L = [L + ν
DQG Y LV XQ.RUUHODWHG ZLWK ε ,I ZH DVVXPH WKH PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU LV ³.ODVVL.DO´ WKHQ Y LV DOVR
XQ.RUUHODWHG ZLWK [L ,W LV ZHOO NQRZQ WKDW LQ WKLV .DVH DQG ZKHQ [L LV WKH RQO\ H[SODQDWRU\
YDULDEOH WKH SURSRUWLRQDO ELDV LQ HVWLPDWLQJ β L PLQXV WKH UDWLR RI WKH ELDV WR WKH WUXH β L LV
HTXDO WR YDU Y YDU [L YDU Y
,Q WKH .XUUHQW .DVH ZH DUH LQWHUHVWHG LQ WKH SRVVLEOH PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU LQ VHOIUHSRUWHG
.KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV ZKL.K DUH GL.KRWRPRXV YDULDEOHV $Q LQGLYLGXDO HLWKHU UHSRUWV WKDW WKH\ KDYH
D SDUWL.XODU .RQGLWLRQ RU WKH\ GRQ¶W ,Q WKLV .DVH DQ\ PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU .DQQRW EH .ODVVL.DO ,I
[L WKHQ [L [L 6LPLODUO\ LI [L WKHQ [L [L ! 7KHUHIRUH WKH HUURUV LQ ELQDU\
YDULDEOHV PXVW EH PHDQ UHYHUWLQJ LH .RY [L Y ,Q WKLV .DVH WKH SURSRUWLRQDO ELDV LQ
HVWLPDWLQJ βL LV HTXDO WR WKH UHJUHVVLRQ .RHIIL.LHQW IURP D K\SRWKHWL.DO UHJUHVVLRQ RI Y RQ WKH VHW
RI PHDVXUHG H[SODQDWRU\ YDULDEOHV :KHQ [L LV WKH RQO\ H[SODQDWRU\ YDULDEOH WKLV LV MXVW EY[
.RY Y [L YDU [L
,Q 7DEOH ZH SUHVHQW HVWLPDWHV RI WKH PHDQ HUURU LQ WKH VHOIUHSRUWHG PHDVXUHV RI .KURQL.
.RQGLWLRQV DV ZHOO DV HVWLPDWHV RI WKH SURSRUWLRQDO ELDV WKDW ZRXOG UHVXOW ZKHQ WKHVH YDULDEOHV
DUH XVHG DV LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV LQ D UHJUHVVLRQ :H SUHVHQW ERWK WKH QRLVH WR WRWDO YDULDQ.H
UDWLR DV ZHOO DV HVWLPDWHV RI EY[ ZKL.K ZH GHQRWH EY6 ZKHUH 6 DUH WKH VHOIUHSRUWV IURP WKH 13+6
GDWD
$V QRWHG E\ %RXQG HW DO WKH PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU LQ [L ZLOO DOVR ELDV WKH HVWLPDWHG SDUDPHWHUV RQ WKH
D..XUDWHO\ PHDVXUHG H[SODQDWRU\ YDULDEOHV
1RWH WKDW LQ WKH .ODVVL.DO .DVH ZLWK RQH H[SODQDWRU\ YDULDEOH EY[ YDU Y YDU [L YDU Y
&RQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH VWDWLVWL.V LQ 7DEOH WKH PHDQ HUURU IRU PDQ\ RI WKH .KURQL.
.RQGLWLRQV LV TXLWH VXEVWDQWLDO UHIOH.WLQJ WKH ID.W WKDW WKH VHOIUHSRUWHG LQ.LGHQ.H .DQ EH PRUH
WKDQ GRXEOH RU OHVV WKDQ RQHKDOI WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI WKH DLOPHQW LQ WKH 2+,3 GDWD )RU WKH GLVHDVHV
.DQ.HU GLDEHWHV VWURNH .DWDUD.WV JODX.RPD DQG K\SHUWHQVLRQ IDOVH QHJDWLYHV DUH PRUH SUHYDOHQW
WKDQ IDOVH SRVLWLYHV VR WKH PHDQ HUURU LV QHJDWLYH )RU WKH UHPDLQLQJ DLOPHQWV LW LV IDOVH SRVLWLYHV
WKDW DUH PRUH SUHYDOHQW 6RPH RI WKH .RQGLWLRQV LQ WKLV ODWWHU JURXS IRU H[DPSOH PLJUDLQHV DQG
ED.N DLOPHQWV DUH OLNHO\ PRUH SURQH WR VHOIGLDJQRVLV ZKL.K ZRXOG D..RXQW IRU WKH KLJKHU
LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH SRVLWLYHV
)RU HD.K RI WKH WKLUWHHQ .RQGLWLRQV WKH QRLVH WR WRWDO YDULDQ.H UDWLR VKRZQ LQ .ROXPQ ILYH
LV TXLWH ODUJH ,W UDQJHV IURP IRU GLDEHWHV ZKHUH WKHUH LV SRWHQWLDOO\ OLWWOH URRP IRU
LQGLYLGXDOV WR OLH RU EH PLVWDNHQ DERXW WKHLU .RQGLWLRQ WR DV KLJK DV IRU VLQXVLWLV 0RVW RI
WKH HVWLPDWHV OLH LQ WKH LQWHUYDO WR
2XU HVWLPDWHV RI EY6 DUH RI D VLPLODU PDJQLWXGH EXW DUH ERWK VPDOOHU DQG ODUJHU WKDQ WKH
.RUUHVSRQGLQJ QRLVH WR WRWDO YDULDQ.H UDWLRV ,W LV SRVVLEOH WR VKRZ WKDW ZKHQ WKH HUURU LV
QHJDWLYHO\ .RUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH WUXH YDOXH WKHQ WKH ELDV ZLOO EH OHVV WKDQ WKH ³YDULDQ.H UDWLR´ LI WKH
YDULDQ.H UDWLR LV OHVV WKDQ ,Q LQVWDQ.HV ZKHUH WKH YDULDQ.H UDWLR LV JUHDWHU WKDQ WKH ELDV
ZLOO EH JUHDWHU WKDQ LQ WKH .ODVVL.DO .DVH $V D .RQVHTXHQ.H WKH SURSRUWLRQDO ELDV ZKHQ XVLQJ
WKHVH DV WKH VROH H[SODQDWRU\ YDULDEOH UDQJHV IURP DV ORZ DV SHU.HQW IRU GLDEHWHV WR DOPRVW
SHU.HQW IRU DUWKULWLV 3DUWL.XODUO\ ODUJH ELDVHV DUH DOVR HVWLPDWHG IRU XO.HUV ED.N DLOPHQWV
DUWKULWLV EURQ.KLWLV VLQXVLWLV DQG PLJUDLQHV 6PDOOHU DOWKRXJK VWLOO VL]DEOH ELDVHV DUH HVWLPDWHG
IRU .DQ.HU DQG JODX.RPD (YHQ IRU D SUHVXPDEO\ VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG .RQGLWLRQ OLNH VWURNHV WKH
HVWLPDWHG ELDV LV PRUH WKDQ SHU.HQW
:H QH[W LQYHVWLJDWH WKH UHODWLYH .RQWULEXWLRQV RI IDOVH SRVLWLYHV DQG QHJDWLYHV WR WKH WRWDO
HUURU YDULDQ.H :H GH.RPSRVH σ Y LQWR WKUHH .RPSRQHQWV .DSWXULQJ WKH .RQWULEXWLRQV RI IDOVH
QHJDWLYHV IDOVH SRVLWLYHV DQG WKH .RYDULDQ.H RI WKH WZR ,Q .ROXPQV DQG LQ WDEOH ZH
UHSRUW WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI WKH WRWDO YDULDQ.H UHSUHVHQWHG E\ WKH ILUVW WZR .RPSRQHQWV )LUVW QRWH
WKDW WKH .RQWULEXWLRQ RI WKH .RYDULDQ.H LV VPDOO LQ DOO .DVHV DV WKH SURSRUWLRQV DOPRVW DGG WR RQH
6H.RQG WKH UHODWLYH .RQWULEXWLRQV RI WKH IDOVH SRVLWLYHV DQG QHJDWLYHV DUH .RQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH
SUH.HGLQJ LQIHUHQ.H )RU H[DPSOH LQ WKH .DVH RI .DQ.HU IDOVH QHJDWLYHV D..RXQW IRU SHU.HQW RI
WKH WRWDO YDULDQ.H LQ WKH HUURU ,Q WKH .DVH RI DUWKULWLV WKH\ D..RXQW IRU RQO\ SHU.HQW RI WKH WRWDO
YDULDQ.H 2WKHU .RQGLWLRQV IRU ZKL.K ZH ZRXOG H[SH.W ODUJHU IDOVH SRVLWLYHV VX.K DV PLJUDLQHV
XO.HUV DQG ED.N SUREOHPV GR LQGHHG KDYH UHODWLYHO\ VPDOO SRUWLRQV RI WKH YDULDQ.H GXH WR IDOVH
QHJDWLYHV &RQGLWLRQV VX.K DV GLDEHWHV JODX.RPD DQG K\SHUWHQVLRQ ZKHUH VHOIGLDJQRVLV DQG
.XUHG .RQGLWLRQV DUH OHVV OLNHO\ DOO KDYH ODUJHU IUD.WLRQV RI WKH YDULDQ.H GXH WR IDOVH QHJDWLYHV
7R GHWHUPLQH KRZ WKH IDOVH SRVLWLYHV DQG QHJDWLYHV .RQWULEXWH WR WKH DWWHQXDWLRQ ELDV WKDW
UHVXOWV IURP XVLQJ VHOIUHSRUWV RI .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV DV WKH VROH H[SODQDWRU\ YDULDEOH LQ D
UHJUHVVLRQ ZH .DO.XODWH D GH.RPSRVLWLRQ RI WKH SURSRUWLRQDO ELDV EY6 GXH WR $LJQHU ,W LV
HTXDO WR
3U [ = _ [ = + 3U [ = _ [ =
RU
π π π − π
+
π π + π − π π − π + π π
XVLQJ %D\HV¶ UXOH 3URE [ _[ LV WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI D IDOVH QHJDWLYH
3URE [ _[ LV WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI D IDOVH SRVLWLYH DQG 3URE [ 7KH ILUVW WHUP LV D
IXQ.WLRQ RI IDOVH QHJDWLYHV ZKLOH WKH VH.RQG WHUP LV D IXQ.WLRQ RI IDOVH SRVLWLYHV ,Q .ROXPQV
RI 7DEOH ZH UHSRUW WKH EUHDNGRZQ RI WKH ELDV LQ WKLV IDVKLRQ 3HUKDSV VXUSULVLQJO\ LQ HYHU\
.DVH WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH ELDV LV GXH WR WKH WHUP UHSUHVHQWLQJ WKH IDOVH SRVLWLYHV 7KLV PLJKW KDYH
EHHQ H[SH.WHG IRU .RQGLWLRQV VX.K DV DUWKULWLV RU PLJUDLQHV ZKHUH IDOVH SRVLWLYHV PDGH WKH JUHDWHU
.RQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH HUURU YDULDQ.H EXW QRW IRU DLOPHQWV VX.K DV .DQ.HU ZKHUH IDOVH QHJDWLYHV
SOD\HG WKH JUHDWHU UROH 6RPH LQWXLWLRQ IRU WKLV UHVXOW .DQ EH JDLQHG IURP VHSDUDWHO\ H[DPLQLQJ
WKH QXPHUDWRUV DQG GHQRPLQDWRUV RI HTXDWLRQ ,Q WKH ILUVW WHUP WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI IDOVH
QHJDWLYHV LV GLYLGHG E\ WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI WKH SRSXODWLRQ ZKR GR QRW UHSRUW WKH .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQ
,Q PRVW LQVWDQ.HV WKLV GHQRPLQDWRU LV IDLUO\ ODUJH DQG .ORVH WR ,Q WKH VH.RQG WHUP WKH
QXPHUDWRU LV WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH SRVLWLYHV LQ WKH SRSXODWLRQ ZKLOH WKH GHQRPLQDWRU LV WKH
SURSRUWLRQ RI WKH SRSXODWLRQ ZKR GR UHSRUW KDYLQJ WKH .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQ :KLOH WKH QXPHUDWRU RI
WKLV WHUP PD\ EH VPDOO VR LV WKH GHQRPLQDWRU VR WKH HIIH.W RI WKH IDOVH SRVLWLYHV KDV D ODUJH
³ID.WRU ORDGLQJ´
*LYHQ WKH LPSRUWDQ.H RI WKH IDOVH SRVLWLYHV WR WKH ELDV DQG WKH ID.W WKDW XVLQJ WKH EURDG
EDQG PDSSLQJ RI WKH 13+6 UHVSRQVHV LQWR WKH 2+,3 GDWD UHGX.HV WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH
SRVLWLYHV LW LV SRWHQWLDOO\ LQWHUHVWLQJ WR VHH LI WKH ELDV LV VPDOOHU XVLQJ WKH ZLGHU PDSSLQJ :H
KDYH UHSOL.DWHG WKH DQDO\VLV XVLQJ WKLV DOWHUQDWLYH PDSSLQJ DQG ILQG WKDW WKH PHDQ HUURU LV QRZ
QHJDWLYH IRU DOO GLVHDVHV UHIOH.WLQJ WKH KLJKHU LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH QHJDWLYHV )XUWKHUPRUH WKH
HVWLPDWHV RI EY6 DUH D.WXDOO\ ODUJHU LQ PRVW .DVHV 7KLV OLNHO\ UHIOH.WV WKH WUDGHRII ZKHQ XVLQJ WKH
ZLGHU PDSSLQJ EHWZHHQ GH.UHDVLQJ WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH SRVLWLYHV DQG VXEVWDQWLDOO\ LQ.UHDVLQJ
WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH QHJDWLYHV
$ TXDOLIL.DWLRQ WR WKH LQIHUHQ.H LQ WKLV VH.WLRQ LV WKDW WKH HVWLPDWHV RI WKH DWWHQXDWLRQ ELDV
WKDW UHVXOWV IURP XVLQJ VHOIUHSRUWHG .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV DV ZHOO DV LW¶V GH.RPSRVLWLRQ DVVXPH
WKDW WKH SULPDU\ LQWHUHVW LV LQ WKH HIIH.W RI 2+,3 UH.RUGHG .RQGLWLRQV RQ WKH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH
,Q PDQ\ LQVWDQ.HV RXU LQWHUHVW LV LQ XQREVHUYHG ZRUN .DSD.LW\ ZKL.K SUHVXPDEO\ ERWK WKH VHOI
UHSRUWHG YDULDEOH DQG WKH 2+,3 UH.RUGV PHDVXUH ZLWK HUURU
7KH -XVWLIL.DWLRQ +\SRWKHVLV
7KH OLWHUDWXUH RQ VHOIUHSRUWHG KHDOWK PHDVXUHV VXJJHVWV WKDW RQH UHDVRQ IRU PLVUHSRUWLQJ
LV WKDW LQGLYLGXDOV XVH KHDOWK WR MXVWLI\ WKHLU GH.LVLRQ QRW WR ZRUN 7KDW LV VLQ.H KHDOWK LV RQH RI
IHZ OHJLWLPDWH UHDVRQV WR EH RXW RI WKH ODERU IRU.H LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR ID.H SRRU ODERU PDUNHW
RSSRUWXQLWLHV UDWLRQDOL]H WKHLU DEVHQ.H IURP WKH ODERU PDUNHW E\ UHSRUWLQJ SRRU KHDOWK 7R IROORZ
XS RQ WKLV SRVVLELOLW\ ZH H[DPLQH KRZ VHOIUHSRUWHG KHDOWK PDW.KHV XS ZLWK WKH DGPLQLVWUDWLYH
GDWD IRU ZRUNHUV YHUVXV QRQZRUNHUV DQG IRU IXOO WLPH YHUVXV SDUWWLPH ZRUNHUV ,I LQGLYLGXDOV
ZLWK SRRU ODERU PDUNHW RSSRUWXQLWLHV DUH WU\LQJ WR MXVWLI\ WKHLU DEVHQ.H IURP WKH ODERU IRU.H ZH
PLJKW H[SH.W WKDW WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH SRVLWLYHV ZRXOG EH KLJKHU IRU QRQZRUNHUV UHODWLYH WR
ZRUNHUV DQG IRU SDUWWLPH ZRUNHUV UHODWLYH WR IXOO WLPH ZRUNHUV
:H HVWLPDWH OLQHDU SUREDELOLW\ PRGHOV IRU HD.K RI WKH .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV RI WKH IRUP
VHOI UHSRUW = RKLS = L = γ + γ ZRUN L + ; λ + ηL
OLPLWLQJ RXU VDPSOH WR WKH SRWHQWLDO ZRUNLQJ DJH SRSXODWLRQ \HDUV RI DJH DQG ROGHU DQG QRW
.XUUHQWO\ LQ V.KRRO 7KH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH LV HTXDO WR LI DQ LQGLYLGXDO VHOIUHSRUWV KDYLQJ D
SDUWL.XODU .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQ DQG WKH 2+,3 DGPLQLVWUDWLYH GDWD KDV QR UH.RUG RI VX.K D .RQGLWLRQ
DQG ]HUR RWKHUZLVH :RUN LV HTXDO WR LI WKH LQGLYLGXDO LV .XUUHQWO\ ZRUNLQJ DQG ]HUR RWKHUZLVH
; LQ.OXGHV D TXDUWL. LQ DJH GXPP\ YDULDEOHV .RUUHVSRQGLQJ WR HGX.DWLRQDO DWWDLQPHQW DQG
GXPPLHV IRU VH[ UHVLGHQ.H LQ DQ XUEDQ DUHD DQG PDULWDO VWDWXV $V DQ DOWHUQDWLYH VSH.LIL.DWLRQ
ZH UHVWUL.W RXU VDPSOH WR WKRVH ZKR KDYH DGPLQLVWUDWLYH UH.RUGV LQGL.DWLQJ WKDW WKH\ GR QRW KDYH
D .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQ 2+,3 7KH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH LV WKHQ ZKHWKHU WKH LQGLYLGXDO VHOI
UHSRUWHG KDYLQJ D .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQ )LQDOO\ ZH DOVR UXQ D VLPLODU UHJUHVVLRQ UHVWUL.WLQJ WKH
VDPSOH WR ZRUNHUV DQG UHSOD.LQJ WKH YDULDEOH ZRUN ZLWK D GXPP\ YDULDEOH HTXDO WR RQH LI WKH
LQGLYLGXDO LV ZRUNLQJ IXOOWLPH DQG ]HUR LI WKH LQGLYLGXDO LV ZRUNLQJ SDUWWLPH
7KH UHVXOWV DUH UHSRUWHG LQ 7DEOH ,Q WKH ILUVW .ROXPQ ZH UHSRUW HVWLPDWHV RI HTXDWLRQ
ZKHQ ZH H[.OXGH WKH DGGLWLRQDO .RYDULDWHV LQ ; 7KH HVWLPDWHG SDUDPHWHU RQ WKH GXPP\ YDULDEOH
IRU ZRUN LV QHJDWLYH IRU DOO .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV DQG VLJQLIL.DQW IRU DOO EXW PLJUDLQHV 6LPLODU
UHVXOWV DUH REWDLQHG ZKHQ ZH UHVWUL.W WKH VDPSOH WR LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWK QR 2+,3 UH.RUG RI WKH
UHOHYDQW .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQ .ROXPQ 7KH HVWLPDWHG SDUDPHWHU RQ WKH ZRUN GXPP\ LV QHJDWLYH
IRU DOO .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV DQG RQ.H DJDLQ VLJQLIL.DQW IRU DOO EXW PLJUDLQHV
,Q .ROXPQV WKUHH DQG IRXU ZH DGG WKH .RQWURO YDULDEOHV ; WR WKH UHJUHVVLRQ HTXDWLRQ
:KLOH WKH H[SODQDWRU\ SRZHU RI ZRUN LV UHGX.HG LW UHPDLQV D VLJQLIL.DQW QHJDWLYH SUHGL.WRU RI
IDOVH SRVLWLYH UHSRUWLQJ IRU VL[ RI WKH .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV PLJUDLQHV DVWKPD EURQ.KLWLV VLQXVLWLV
DUWKULWLV DQG XO.HUV 7KHVH DUH VL[ .RQGLWLRQV IRU ZKL.K WKHUH LV OLNHO\ D KLJKHU SRWHQWLDO IRU
SHUVRQDO VXEMH.WLYH DVVHVVPHQW :H VKRXOG DOVR QRWH KRZHYHU WKDW WKHVH DUH DOVR .RQGLWLRQV WKDW
WKHUH LV D KLJKHU OLNHOLKRRG WKDW LQGLYLGXDOV .RXOG .XUUHQWO\ VXIIHU WKH .RQVHTXHQ.HV RI D DLOPHQW
WKDW ZDV GLDJQRVHG EHIRUH WKH \HDU ZLQGRZ RI WKH 2+,3 GDWD 7KLV HUURU LQ WKH 2+,3 GDWD
.RXOG EH WKH VRXU.H RI D SRUWLRQ RI WKH IDOVH SRVLWLYHV IRU WKHVH DLOPHQWV
7KH GLUH.W HIIH.WV RI WKH DGGLWLRQDO .RYDULDWHV RQ WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH SRVLWLYHV DUH TXLWH
PL[HG $JH VH[ DQG OHYHO RI HGX.DWLRQ DUH .RUUHODWHG ZLWK IDOVH UHSRUWV IRU VHYHUDO RI WKH
.RQGLWLRQV EXW WKH VLJQV RI WKH .RHIIL.LHQWV DUH QRW .RQVLVWHQW D.URVV .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV
7KH PDJQLWXGHV RI WKH .RHIIL.LHQWV DUH TXLWH VLJQLIL.DQW ZKHQ .RQVLGHUHG DV D SHU.HQWDJH
RI DOO IDOVH SRVLWLYHV )URP .ROXPQ ZH VHH WKDW ZRUNLQJ UHGX.HV WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI IDOVHO\
:H DOVR WHVW VSH.LIL.DWLRQV WKDW LQ.OXGH DOO RWKHU .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV DV UH.RUGHG LQ WKH 2+,3 GDWD DV DGGLWLRQDO
.RYDULDWHV 7KH UHVXOWV UHPDLQ TXDOLWDWLYHO\ XQ.KDQJHG
UHSRUWLQJ PLJUDLQHV E\ SHU.HQWDJH SRLQWV :KLOH DORQH WKLV QXPEHU PD\ VHHP VPDOO WDNHQ DV
D SHU.HQWDJH RI DOO IDOVH SRVLWLYHV IRU PLJUDLQHV LW UHSUHVHQWV SHU.HQW 6LPLODU .DO.XODWLRQV
VKRZ WKDW DV SHU.HQWDJH RI DOO IDOVH SRVLWLYHV IRU WKH DLOPHQW ZRUNLQJ GH.UHDVHV WKH SUREDELOLW\
RI IDOVH SRVLWLYHV IRU DVWKPD E\ SHU.HQW EURQ.KLWLV E\ SHU.HQW VLQXVLWLV E\ SHU.HQW
DUWKULWLV E\ SHU.HQW DQG XO.HUV E\ SHU.HQW
:H QH[W UHVWUL.W WKH VDPSOH WR ZRUNHUV DQG XVH D IXOO WLPH GXPP\ DV DQ H[SODQDWRU\
YDULDEOH 7KH UHVXOWV UHSRUWHG LQ .ROXPQV DQG DUH PL[HG )RU WKH IXOOWLPHSDUWWLPH
HTXLYDOHQW RI HTXDWLRQ WKH .RHIIL.LHQW RQ ZRUNLQJ IXOOWLPH LV VWLOO QHJDWLYH IRU RI .KURQL.
.RQGLWLRQV EXW WKH .RHIIL.LHQWV DUH LQVLJQLIL.DQW IRU DOO EXW RQH RI WKH .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV :KHQ
ZH UHVWUL.W WKH VDPSOH WR WKRVH LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR KDYH QR UH.RUG RI WKH SDUWL.XODU .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQ
LQ WKH 2+,3 DGPLQLVWUDWLYH GDWD WKH UHVXOWV DUH VLPLODU
7KH (IIH.WV RI ,QWHQVLW\
:H QH[W LQYHVWLJDWH KRZ WKH HUURU LQ VHOIUHSRUWHG KHDOWK YDULHV ZLWK WKH LQWHQVLW\ RI WKH
.KURQL. .RQGLWLRQ $V D PHDVXUH RI LQWHQVLW\ ZH XVH WKH QXPEHU RI WLPHV WKH LQGLYLGXDO KDV DQ
DGPLQLVWUDWLYH UH.RUG RI EHLQJ WUHDWHG IRU D SDUWL.XODU .RQGLWLRQ :H XVH WKUHH LQWHQVLW\ OHYHOV
UH.RUGV UH.RUGV 5(& DQG PRUH WKDQ UH.RUGV 5(& :H DJDLQ XVH OLQHDU
SUREDELOLW\ PRGHOV LQ ZKL.K D LQGL.DWRU RI IDOVH QHJDWLYHV LV WKH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH DQG WKH
RWKHU .RYDULDWHV DUH DV LQ HTXDWLRQ
VHOI UHSRUW = _ RKLS = L = δ
+ δ 5(& − L + δ 5(&+ L + ; λ + η L
,Q DGGLWLRQ ZH KDYH UHUXQ WKH DERYH DQDO\VLV XVLQJ WKH ZLGHU PDSSLQJ RI ,&' .RGHV DQG KDYH IRXQG QR
VLJQLIL.DQW .KDQJH LQ WKH UHVXOWV $ WDEOH RI WKHVH UHJUHVVLRQV LV DYDLODEOH IURP WKH DXWKRUV XSRQ UHTXHVW
:H UHVWUL.W RXU VDPSOH WR WKRVH LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR KDYH DW OHDVW RQH 2+,3 DGPLQLVWUDWLYH UH.RUG IRU
D SDUWL.XODU .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQ ,W LV QRW SRVVLEOH WR UXQ WKLV UHJUHVVLRQ IRU VLQXVLWLV EH.DXVH QR RQH
LQ WKH VDPSOH KDG PRUH WKDQ DGPLQLVWUDWLYH UH.RUGV ZLWK D GLDJQRVLV IRU WKLV .RQGLWLRQ
7KH UHVXOWV DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH )RU RI WKH .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV KDYLQJ EHWZHHQ
DQG DGPLQLVWUDWLYH UH.RUGV RI D .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQ LV VWURQJO\ DVVR.LDWHG ZLWK ORZHU
LQ.LGHQ.H RI IDOVH QHJDWLYHV 7KH H[.HSWLRQV DUH .DWDUD.WV DQG XO.HUV IRU ZKL.K WKH .RHIIL.LHQWV
DUH QRW VWDWLVWL.DOO\ VLJQLIL.DQW +DYLQJ PRUH WKDQ DGPLQLVWUDWLYH UH.RUGV LV OHVV .RQVLVWHQWO\
DVVR.LDWHG ZLWK PRUH D..XUDWH UHSRUWLQJ +RZHYHU LW VKRXOG EH QRWHG WKDW WKH VDPSOH RI SHRSOH
ZLWK PRUH WKDQ .RXQWV RI DQ\ RQH .RQGLWLRQ LV H[WUHPHO\ VPDOO ,Q VXP RXU ILQGLQJV VXJJHVW
WKDW WKH JUHDWHU WKH LQWHQVLW\ RI WKH .RQGLWLRQ WKH PRUH OLNHO\ VHOIUHSRUWHG KHDOWK .RUUHVSRQGV
ZLWK WKH DGPLQLVWUDWLYH GDWD
$ /DERU 6XSSO\ ([DPSOH
6HOI RU PHGL.DO UH.RUG UHSRUWV RI .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV DUH XOWLPDWHO\ RI OLPLWHG LQWULQVL.
LQWHUHVW WR H.RQRPLVWV 5DWKHU LW LV WKH HIIH.W RI WKH XQGHUO\LQJ DQG OLNHO\ XQREVHUYHG KHDOWK
VWDWXV RQ VRPH H.RQRPL. RXW.RPH WKDW LV PRUH LPSRUWDQW $ SURPLQHQW H[DPSOH LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH
LV WKH SRVVLEOH HIIH.WV RI KHDOWK DV PDQLIHVW LQ ZRUN .DSD.LW\ RQ UHWLUHPHQW RU PRUH JHQHUDOO\
ODERU VXSSO\ EHKDYLRU 7R SURYLGH DGGLWLRQDO .RQWH[W IRU RXU UHVXOWV ZH H[DPLQH WKH UHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQ ODERU PDUNHW SDUWL.LSDWLRQ DQG RXU YDULRXV PHDVXUHV RI KHDOWK XVLQJ HVWLPDWLRQ
VWUDWHJLHV WKDW DUH .RPPRQ WR VWXGLHV LQ WKLV DUHD
$V .OHDUO\ H[SODLQHG LQ %RXQG WKH PHDVXUHV RI KHDOWK DYDLODEOH LQ VXUYH\V RI
ODERU PDUNHW D.WLYLW\ KDYH PDQ\ OLPLWDWLRQV )LUVW SUHVXPDEO\ DOO DUH VXEMH.W WR VRPH GHJUHH RI
PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU EH.DXVH WKH\ DUH RQO\ SUR[LHV IRU XQGHUO\LQJ ZRUN .DSD.LW\ 6H.RQG
PHDVXUHV RI JOREDO KHDOWK VX.K DV WKH RQH DYDLODEOH LQ WKH 13+6 DQG H[DPLQHG LQ ILJXUHV DP
DUH IXUWKHU OLPLWHG E\ PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU DULVLQJ IURP OD.N RI .RPSDUDELOLW\ D.URVV UHVSRQGHQWV
7KLUG GLUH.W PHDVXUHV RI ZRUN .DSD.LW\ VX.K DV TXHVWLRQV RQ SK\VL.DO OLPLWDWLRQV RQ D.WLYLWLHV DW
KRPH DQG ZRUN PD\ WKHPVHOYHV EH D IXQ.WLRQ RI ODERU PDUNHW RSSRUWXQLWLHV DQG WKXV MRLQWO\
GHWHUPLQHG
7KH PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU SUHVXPDEO\ OHDGV WR XQGHUHVWLPDWHV DWWHQXDWLRQ ELDV RI WKH
HIIH.W RI KHDOWK RQ ODERU PDUNHW D.WLYLW\ ZKLOH WKH HQGRJHQHLW\ ELDV SUHVXPDEO\ OHDGV WR
RYHUHVWLPDWHV )XUWKHUPRUH WKH UHVXOWLQJ ELDVHV ZLOO ³VSLOORYHU´ WR DQ\ RWKHU H[SODQDWRU\
YDULDEOH LQ WKH PDUNHW D.WLYLW\ HTXDWLRQ WKDW LV LWVHOI .RUUHODWHG ZLWK KHDOWK
2QH UHVSRQVH WR WKHVH SUREOHPV LV WR DWWHPSW WR LQVWUXPHQW HUURU SURQH DQG SRVVLEO\
HQGRJHQRXV PHDVXUHV RI JOREDO KHDOWK RU SK\VL.DO OLPLWDWLRQV ZLWK PRUH REMH.WLYH PHDVXUHV VX.K
DV VHOIUHSRUWV RI .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV RU LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH VXEVHTXHQW PRUWDOLW\ RI UHVSRQGHQWV
HJ 6WHUQ :KLOH WKLV DSSURD.K PD\ SURYLGH XQELDVHG HVWLPDWHV RI WKH HIIH.WV RI KHDOWK
RQ ODERU VXSSO\ DV DUJXHG E\ %RXQG LW ZLOO OHDG WR XQGHUHVWLPDWHV RI WKH HIIH.W RI ODERU
PDUNHW RSSRUWXQLWLHV HJ WKH ZDJH LI WKHVH DUH LQ WXUQ GHWHUPLQDQWV RI WKH PRUH VXEMH.WLYH
PHDVXUHV RI KHDOWK
7R GR.XPHQW WKHVH LVVXHV LQ WKH 13+6 ZH XVH D VLPSOH PRGHO RI ODERU PDUNHW
SDUWL.LSDWLRQ
OIS = β + β OQ Z + β K + ; λ + η
ZKHUH OIS LV D LQGL.DWRU RI .XUUHQW ODERU PDUNHW SDUWL.LSDWLRQ Z LV D PHDVXUH RI ODERU PDUNHW
RSSRUWXQLWLHV HJ WKH ZDJH K LV D PHDVXUH RI KHDOWK DQG ; DUH RWKHU GHWHUPLQDQWV RI ODERU
PDUNHW VWDWXV ZKL.K LQ.OXGH D TXDUWL. LQ DJH PDULWDO VWDWXV VH[ DQG GXPPLHV IRU UHVLGHQ.H LQ DQ
XUEDQ DUHD DQG YLVLEOH PLQRULW\ VWDWXV 8QIRUWXQDWHO\ WKH 13+6 SURYLGHV LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ
³IDPLO\ LQ.RPH´ UDWKHU WKDQ RQ LQGLYLGXDO OHYHO HDUQLQJV RU ZDJHV (YHQ LI .XUUHQW ZDJHV ZHUH
DYDLODEOH KRZHYHU ZH ZRXOG VWLOO QHHG WR LPSXWH WKH PDUNHW RSSRUWXQLWLHV RI LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR
DUH QRW LQ WKH ODERU IRU.H 7R .RQVWUX.W D ZDJH IRU ERWK SDUWL.LSDQWV DQG QRQSDUWL.LSDQWV ZH XVH
GDWD IURP WKH .URVV VH.WLRQ SXEOL. XVH ILOHV RI WKH 6XUYH\ RI /DERU DQG ,Q.RPH '\QDPL.V
6/,' 7KLV LV D QDWLRQDOO\ UHSUHVHQWDWLYH VXUYH\ RI WKH &DQDGLDQ SRSXODWLRQ WKDW LV SDUW RI D
ODUJHU SDQHO GDWD VHW 7KH ORQJLWXGLQDO GDWD DUH QRW UHOHDVHG SXEOL.O\ EXW DQQXDO .URVVVH.WLRQ
VDPSOHV ZLWK .HUWDLQ YDULDEOHV VXSSUHVVHG DUH :H HVWLPDWH D PRGHO RI LQGLYLGXDO KRXUO\ ZDJHV
DV D IXQ.WLRQ RI HGX.DWLRQ OHYHOV D TXDUWL. LQ DJH VH[ PDULWDO VWDWXV DQG DQ LQGL.DWRU IRU
YLVLEOH PLQRULWLHV XVLQJ WKH VDPSOH RI LQGLYLGXDOV \HDUV DQG ROGHU OLYLQJ LQ WKH SURYLQ.H RI
2QWDULR 7KH ZDJH UDWHV .RQQH.WHG ZLWK SDUWL.XODU MREV KHOG WKURXJKRXW WKH \HDU DUH VXSSUHVVHG
VR WKH ZDJH UHJUHVVLRQ XVHV D .RPSRVLWH DQQXDO ZDJH UDWH DJJUHJDWHG E\ KRXUV RI ZRUN RQ HD.K
MRE 7KH ZDJH HTXDWLRQ LV WKHQ XVHG WR LPSXWH ZDJHV WR LQGLYLGXDOV LQ WKH 13+6 VDPSOH :H
H[.OXGH HGX.DWLRQ IURP ; LQ HTXDWLRQ VR RQH ZD\ RI WKLQNLQJ RI WKH LPSXWHG ZDJH LV DV DQ
LQGH[ RI WKH PDUNHW YDOXH RI WKH HGX.DWLRQ HD.K LQGLYLGXDO SRVVHVVHV &HUWDLQO\ WKLV LV D IDLUO\
.RDUVH PHWKRG RI LPSXWLQJ ODERU PDUNHW RSSRUWXQLWLHV WR LQGLYLGXDOV ZKL.K SRWHQWLDOO\ OLPLWV WKH
DPRXQW ZH .DQ OHDUQ DERXW WKH SDUDPHWHU RQ WKLV YDULDEOH
:H .RQVLGHU IRXU GLIIHUHQW PHDVXUHV RI KHDOWK DYDLODEOH LQ WKH 13+6 7KH ILUVW LV WKH
TXHVWLRQ RQ JOREDO KHDOWK GLV.XVVHG LQ ILJXUHV DP :H HQWHU WKLV YDULDEOH DV D LQGL.DWRU RI
SRRU KHDOWK 7KH VH.RQG LV D LQGL.DWRU RI SK\VL.DO OLPLWDWLRQV .RQVWUX.WHG IURP WKH TXHVWLRQ
³%H.DXVH RI D ORQJ WHUP SK\VL.DO RU PHQWDO .RQGLWLRQ RU D KHDOWK SUREOHP DUHLV«OLPLWHG LQ WKH
:H KDYH DVVHVVHG WKH VHQVLWLYLW\ RI RXU UHVXOWV WR RXU PHWKRG RI LPSXWLQJ ZDJHV )LUVW ZH WULHG D ³VHOH.WLRQ
.RUUH.WHG´ ZDJH HTXDWLRQ LQ ZKL.K ZH LGHQWLILHG WKH 0LOO¶V UDWLR RII IXQ.WLRQDO IRUP LQ WKH DEVHQ.H RI DQ\ SODXVLEOH
LQVWUXPHQWV 6H.RQG ZH WULHG LPSXWLQJ ZDJHV WR QRQSDUWL.LSDQWV WKRVH ZKR UHSRUWHG WKDW WKHLU SULPDU\ D.WLYLW\
ZDV VRPHWKLQJ RWKHU WKDQ µZRUNLQJ IRU SD\ RU SURILW¶ XVLQJ D ZDJH HTXDWLRQ HVWLPDWHG IURP WKH VDPSOH RI ZRUNHUV
LQ WKH 6/,' ZKR ZRUNHG OHVV WKDQ DQG ZHHNV SHU \HDU ,Q DOO .DVHV WKH .RHIIL.LHQWV RI LQWHUHVW LQ WDEOH DUH
DIIH.WHG RQO\ LQ PDJQLWXGHWKH SDWWHUQV DQG UHODWLYH .KDQJHV D.URVV VSH.LIL.DWLRQV DUH YHU\ VLPLODU
NLQG RU DPRXQW RI D.WLYLW\ \RXKHVKH .DQ GR DW KRPH"´ 7KH WKLUG LV DQ LQGH[ RI WKH VHOI
UHSRUWHG .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV .RQVWUX.WHG DV WKH .RXQW RI WKH QXPEHU RI DLOPHQWV UHSRUWHG 6LPLODU
LQGL.HV KDYH EHHQ XVHG LQ SDVW VWXGLHV HJ 'Z\HU DQG 0LW.KHOO 7KLV LQGH[ SUHVXPDEO\
YDULHV ZLWK WKH VHYHULW\ RI WKHVH .RQGLWLRQV WKURXJK .RPRUELGLW\ LH WKH .RQGLWLRQV DUH QRW
LQGHSHQGHQW )LQDOO\ WKH IRXUWK LV D .RPSOHPHQWDU\ LQGH[ .RQVWUX.WHG IURP WKH 2+,3 UH.RUGV
,Q WKH ILUVW SDQHO RI WDEOH ZH UHSRUW 2/6 HVWLPDWHV RI HTXDWLRQ XVLQJ WKHVH GLIIHUHQW
PHDVXUHV RI KHDOWK VWDWXV 7KHUH DUH D QXPEHU RI SDWWHUQV WKDW DUH .RQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH ILQGLQJV RI
SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV )LUVW WKH UROH RI ODERU PDUNHW RSSRUWXQLWLHV LV VPDOOHU LQ VSH.LIL.DWLRQV WKDW
LQ.OXGH D PHDVXUH RI KHDOWK WKDQ LQ VSH.LIL.DWLRQV WKDW GRQ¶W LH .ROXPQ DOWKRXJK WKH
GLIIHUHQ.HV DUH YHU\ VPDOO 6H.RQG WKH SRLQW HVWLPDWHV VXJJHVW WKDW WKH HIIH.W RI ZDJH LV JUHDWHU
XVLQJ PRUH REMH.WLYH PHDVXUHV RI KHDOWK 7KDW LV WKH ZDJH SOD\V D VPDOOHU UROH ZKHQ XVLQJ
PHDVXUHV RI JOREDO KHDOWK RU SK\VL.DO OLPLWDWLRQV WKDQ ZKHQ XVLQJ WKH .RXQWV RI .KURQL.
.RQGLWLRQV DOWKRXJK DJDLQ WKH GLIIHUHQ.HV DUH XQOLNHO\ VWDWLVWL.DOO\ VLJQLIL.DQW JLYHQ WKH VWDQGDUG
HUURUV 7KLUG LQ HD.K .DVH WKH HVWLPDWHG SDUDPHWHU RQ WKH KHDOWK YDULDEOH LV QHJDWLYH DQG
VLJQLIL.DQW )LQDOO\ WKH HVWLPDWHG SDUDPHWHUV RQ WKH VHOI DQG 2+,3 UHSRUWHG LQGL.HV RI .KURQL.
.RQGLWLRQV DUH YHU\ VLPLODU
,Q WKH VH.RQG SDQHO ZH SUHVHQW D ILUVW VHW RI ,9 HVWLPDWHV XVLQJ WKH LQGH[ RI VHOI
UHSRUWHG .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV WR LQVWUXPHQW IRU JOREDO KHDOWK DQG IRU WKH LQ.LGHQ.H RI SK\VL.DO
OLPLWDWLRQV 7KLV VWUDWHJ\ RI XVLQJ D PRUH REMH.WLYH PHDVXUH RI KHDOWK DV DQ LQVWUXPHQW IRU
VXEMH.WLYH PHDVXUHV RI KHDOWK KDV EHHQ XVHG LQ WKH SDVW E\ 6WHUQ DQG %RXQG ,I WKH
REMH.WLYH PHDVXUH LV XQ.RUUHODWHG ZLWK ODERU PDUNHW RSSRUWXQLWLHV DQG DQ\ PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU LQ
WKH REMH.WLYH DQG VXEMH.WLYH PHDVXUHV LV XQ.RUUHODWHG WKLV VWUDWHJ\ SRWHQWLDOO\ DGGUHVVHV WKH
ELDVHV GLV.XVVHG DERYH 2I .RXUVH WKH SUH.HGLQJ HYLGHQ.H .DVWV VRPH GRXEW RQ WKHVH
DVVXPSWLRQV DV WKH HUURQHRXV UHSRUW RI VRPH RI WKHVH DLOPHQWV LV .RUUHODWHG ZLWK ODERU PDUNHW
VWDWXV 7KDW VDLG .RQVLVWHQW ZLWK SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV WKHVH UHVXOWV VXJJHVW WKDW KHDOWK SOD\V D PX.K
ODUJHU UROH DQG WKH ZDJH D VPDOOHU UROH LQ ODERU PDUNHW SDUWL.LSDWLRQ
,Q WKH WKLUG SDQHO ZH SUHVHQW DQRWKHU VHW RI ,9 HVWLPDWHV XVLQJ WKH LQGH[ RI 2+,3
UHSRUWHG .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV DV DQ LQVWUXPHQW :H VHH WKH VDPH SDWWHUQ DV EHIRUH WKH HIIH.W RI
ZDJH IDOOV DQG WKH HIIH.W RI KHDOWK LQ.UHDVHV UHODWLYH WR WKH 2/6 UHVXOWV +RZHYHU .RPSDUHG WR
WKH UHVXOWV LQ WKH VH.RQG SDQHO ERWK WKHVH .KDQJHV DUH PRUH SURQRXQ.HG
,Q WDEOH ZH UHSHDW WKH DQDO\VLV UHVWUL.WLQJ WKH VDPSOH WR LQGLYLGXDOV \HDUV RI DJH RU
ROGHU +HUH ZH ILQG WKDW WKH HIIH.W RI WKH ZDJH RQ ODERU PDUNHW SDUWL.LSDWLRQ LV PX.K VPDOOHU
DQG WKH HIIH.W RI KHDOWK PDUJLQDOO\ ODUJHU WKDQ ZDV IRXQG LQ WDEOH 7KDW VDLG WKH VDPH SDWWHUQ
RI GLIIHUHQ.HV EHWZHHQ WKH 2/6 DQG ,9 HVWLPDWHV LV REVHUYHG
2YHUDOO WKH UHVXOWV LQ WDEOH DQG EHDU VWURQJ VLPLODULWLHV WR WKH UHVXOWV UHSRUWHG LQ
SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV $JDLQ ZH .RQ.OXGH WKDW WKH LQIHUHQ.H IURP WKH 13+6 VKRXOG LQIRUP
UHVHDU.KHUV XVLQJ VHOI UHSRUWHG VXEMH.WLYH DQG REMH.WLYH PHDVXUHV RI KHDOWK LQ RWKHU VXUYH\V
&RQ.OXVLRQV
:KLOH WKLV LV QRW WKH ILUVW VWXG\ WR H[DPLQH WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ REMH.WLYH VHOIUHSRUWV
RI PHGL.DO .RQGLWLRQV DQG KHDOWK UH.RUGV SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV DUH VXEMH.W WR WZR PDMRU OLPLWDWLRQV
)LUVW WKH\ LQYROYH UHODWLYHO\ XQUHSUHVHQWDWLYH VDPSOHV 6H.RQG W\SL.DOO\ RQO\ VRPH VXEVHW RI
WKH PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU LQ WKH GDWD LV LQYHVWLJDWHG +DUORZ DQG /LQHW ,W LV LQ SUH.LVHO\
WKHVH WZR ZD\V WKDW RXU DQDO\VLV EXLOGV XSRQ WKH SUHYLRXV OLWHUDWXUH 2XU LQIHUHQ.H LV EDVHG RQ
)LUVW VWDJH WVWDWLVWL.V DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ $SSHQGL[ &
:H KDYH DOVR UXQ ,9 UHJUHVVLRQV XVLQJ RWKHU VHWV RI LQVWUXPHQWV GXPP\ YDULDEOHV UH.RUGLQJ VHOIUHSRUWV RI WKH
.KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV DV LQVWUXPHQWV DQG GXPP\ YDULDEOHV UH.RUGLQJ 2+,3 UH.RUGV RI WKH .RQGLWLRQV DV LQVWUXPHQWV
7KH UHVXOWV DUH ODUJHO\ WKH VDPH DV LQ WDEOH DQG WDEOH
PDW.KHG VXUYH\ DQG DGPLQLVWUDWLYH GDWD WKDW DUH UHSUHVHQWDWLYH RI WKH JHQHUDO SRSXODWLRQ 8VLQJ
D YDULHW\ RI VWUDWHJLHV ZH LQYHVWLJDWH WKH IXOO UDQJH RI HUURU LQ WKHVH GDWD
2XU UHVXOWV VXJJHVW IRXU .RQ.OXVLRQV )LUVW WKHUH DSSHDUV WR EH .RQVLGHUDEOH HUURU ERWK
IDOVH SRVLWLYHV DQG IDOVH QHJDWLYHV LQ VHOIUHSRUWHG .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV (VWLPDWHV RI WKH HUURU
YDULDQ.H WR WRWDO YDULDQ.H RIWHQ DV ODUJH DV DQG LQ VRPH .DVHV DV ODUJH DV :KLOH WKHUH LV
.HUWDLQO\ VRPH HUURU LQ WKH 2+,3 KHDOWK UH.RUGV WKDW ZH XVH KHUH DV WKH ³WUXWK´ ZH DUJXH WKURXJK
D VHULHV RI H[HU.LVHV WKDW LW LV QRW GULYLQJ WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH HUURU WKDW ZH GR.XPHQW
6H.RQG XVLQJ OLQHDU SUREDELOLW\ PRGHOV WR .RPSDUH ZRUNHUV DQG QRQZRUNHUV ZH ILQG
VRPH HYLGHQ.H WKDW WKH HUURU LQ WKH VHOIUHSRUW RI .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV LV UHODWHG WR ODERU PDUNHW
VWDWXV 7KDW LV LQGLYLGXDOV PD\ EH XVLQJ WKHLU KHDOWK VWDWXV DV MXVWLIL.DWLRQ IRU QRW ZRUNLQJ 7KH
PRVW VWULNLQJ H[DPSOH LV WKDW RI EURQ.KLWLV ZKHUH ZH ILQG ZRUNLQJ GH.UHDVHV WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI
IDOVH SRVLWLYHV E\ SHU.HQW
7KLUG ZH KDYH IRXQG HYLGHQ.H WKDW WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI IDOVH UHSRUWLQJ GH.UHDVHV ZLWK WKH
LQWHQVLW\ RI WKH .RQGLWLRQ 7KLV UHIOH.WV SHUKDSV WKH ID.W WKDW LQ.UHDVHG .RPPXQL.DWLRQ ZLWK WKH
SK\VL.LDQ OHDGV LQGLYLGXDOV WR JUHDWHU NQRZOHGJH RI WKHLU .RQGLWLRQV
)LQDOO\ XVLQJ D VLPSOH PRGHO RI ODERU PDUNHW SDUWL.LSDWLRQ ZH GR.XPHQW WKH UHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQ ZRUN DQG RXU PHDVXUHV RI KHDOWK 2XU UHVXOWV .RQILUP WKH ILQGLQJV RI SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV
)RU H[DPSOH XVLQJ REMH.WLYH PHDVXUHV RI KHDOWK WR LQVWUXPHQW IRU VXEMH.WLYH PHDVXUHV OHDGV WR
ODUJHU HVWLPDWHV RI WKH HIIH.W RI KHDOWK DQG VPDOOHU HVWLPDWHV RI WKH HIIH.W RI ZDJHV RQ ODERU
PDUNHW SDUWL.LSDWLRQ
$SSHQGL[ $ 0DSSLQJV RI WKH &KURQL. &RQGLWLRQV LQ WKH 1+36 LQWR ,&' &RGHV
:H XVH WZR SUR.HGXUHV WR PDS WKH .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV LQWR WKH ,&' .RGHV 7KH ILUVW VLPSO\
PDSV .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV LQWR RQH RI EURDG JURXSLQJV RI ,&' .RGHV DV IROORZV
QHRSODVPV .DQ.HU
HQGR.ULQH QXWULWLRQDO DQG PHWDEROL. GLVHDVHV
DQG LPPXQLW\ GLVRUGHUV GLDEHWHV
GLVHDVHV RI WKH QHUYRXV V\VWHP DQG VHQVH
RUJDQV²PLJUDLQHV DQG VWURNHV .DWDUD.WV
DQG JODX.RPD
GLVHDVHV RI WKH .LU.XODWRU\ V\VWHP²K\SHUWHQVLRQ
GLVHDVHV RI WKH UHVSLUDWRU\ V\VWHP²DVWKPD
VLQXVLWLV DQG EURQ.KLWLV
GLVHDVHV RI WKH GLJHVWLYH V\VWHP XO.HUV
GLVHDVHV RI WKH PXV.XORVNHOHWDO V\VWHP DQG
.RQQH.WLYH WLVVXH²DUWKULWLV ED.N SUREOHPV
7KH VH.RQG PRUH QDUURZ PDSSLQJ XVHV PRUH VSH.LIL. ,&' .RGHV ZKRVH GHV.ULSWLRQ H[D.WO\
PDW.KHV WKH .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQV 7KH PDSSLQJ LV DV IROORZV
.DQ.HU
GLDEHWHV
PLJUDLQHV
VWURNH
DVWKPD
EURQ.KLWLVHPSK\VHPD
VLQXVLWLV
DUWKULWLV
ED.N SUREOHPV
XO.HUV
.DWDUD.WV
JODX.RPD
K\SHUWHQVLRQ
$SSHQGL[ % 3HU.HQWDJH RI 5HSRUWV LQ 0HGL.DO 5H.RUGV 0DW.KHG WR 5HSRUW LQ 6XUYH\
,QVWUXPHQW 9DULRXV 6WXGLHV
13+6 .UXHJHU 1&+6 0DGRZ 7UHWOL HW DO
&DQ.HU
'LDEHWHV
0LJUDLQHV
6WURNH
$VWKPD
%URQ.KLWLV
6LQXV 3UREOHPV
$UWKULWLV
%D.N SUREOHPV
8O.HUV
&DWDUD.WV
*ODX.RPD
+\SHUWHQVLRQ
3HU.HQWDJH RI 5HSRUWV LQ 6XUYH\ ,QVWUXPHQW 0DW.KHG WR 5HSRUW LQ 0HGL.DO 5H.RUGV
9DULRXV 6WXGLHV
13+6 .UXHJHU 1&+6 0DGRZ 7UHWOL HW DO
&DQ.HU
'LDEHWHV
0LJUDLQHV
6WURNH
$VWKPD
%URQ.KLWLV
6LQXV 3UREOHPV
$UWKULWLV
%D.N SUREOHPV
8O.HUV
&DWDUD.WV
*ODX.RPD
+\SHUWHQVLRQ
$SSHQGL[ & )LUVW 6WDJH W6WDWLVWL.V IRU WKH /DERU 0DUNHW 3DUWL.LSDWLRQ 5HJUHVVLRQV
*OREDO 3K\VL.DO ,QGH[ RI 6HOI
+HDOWK /LPLWDWLRQV 5HSRUWHG $LOPHQWV
,9 ,QGH[ RI 6HOI5HSRUWHG &KURQL. $LOPHQWV DV ,QVWUXPHQWV
)XOO
6DPSOH
$JH
6XE
6DPSOH
$JH
,9 ,QGH[ RI 2+,3 5HSRUWHG &KURQL. $LOPHQWV DV ,QVWUXPHQWV
)XOO
6DPSOH
$JH
6XE
6DPSOH
$JH
1RWHV )XOO VDPSOH DJH .RUUHVSRQGV WR WKH UHJUHVVLRQV UHSRUWHG LQ WDEOH 6XEVDPSOH
DJH .RUUHVSRQGV WR WKH UHJUHVVLRQV UHSRUWHG LQ WDEOH
5HIHUHQ.HV
$LJQHU '- ³5HJUHVVLRQ :LWK D %LQDU\ ,QGHSHQGHQW 9DULDEOH 6XEMH.W WR (UURUV RI
2EVHUYDWLRQ´ -RXUQDO RI (.RQRPHWUL.V
%RXQG - ³6HOI5HSRUWHG YHUVXV 2EMH.WLYH 0HDVXUHV RI +HDOWK LQ 5HWLUHPHQW 0RGHOV
-RXUQDO RI +XPDQ 5HVRXU.HV
%RXQG - %URZQ & 'XQ.DQ *- DQG :/ 5RGJHUV ³(YLGHQ.H RQ WKH 9DOLGLW\ RI
&URVV6H.WLRQDO DQG /RQJLWXGLQDO /DERU 0DUNHW 'DWD´ -RXUQDO RI /DERU (.RQRPL.V
%RXQG - DQG 59 %XUNKDXVHU ³(.RQRPL. $QDO\VLV RI 7UDQVIHU 3URJUDPV 7DUJHWHG RQ
3HRSOH ZLWK 'LVDELOLWLHV´ LQ 2 $VKHQIHOWHU DQG ' &DUG HGV +DQGERRN RI /DERU
(.RQRPL.V Y . 1HZ <RUN (OVHYLHU
%RXQG - %URZQ & DQG 1 0DWKLRZHW] ³0HDVXUHPHQW (UURU LQ 6XUYH\ 'DWD´ +DQGERRN
RI (.RQRPHWUL.V IRUWK.RPLQJ
&XUULH - DQG %& 0DGULDQ ³+HDOWK +HDOWK ,QVXUDQ.H DQG WKH /DERU 0DUNHW´ LQ 2
$VKHQIHOWHU DQG ' &DUG HGV +DQGERRN RI /DERU (.RQRPL.V Y . 1HZ <RUN
(OVHYLHU
'Z\HU ' DQG 26 0LW.KHOO ³+HDOWK 3UREOHPV DV 'HWHUPLQDQWV RI 5HWLUHPHQW $UH 6HOI
5DWHG 0HDVXUHV (QGRJHQRXV"´ -RXUQDO RI +HDOWK (.RQRPL.V
+DUORZ 6' DQG 06 /LQHW ³$JUHHPHQW %HWZHHQ 4XHVWLRQQDLUH 'DWD DQG 0HGL.DO
5H.RUGV¶ $PHUL.DQ -RXUQDO RI (SLGHPLRORJ\
+X[ - ,YLV ) )OLQWRIW 9 DQG $ %L.D ³'LDEHWHV LQ 2QWDULR 'HWHUPLQDWLRQ RI
3UHYDOHQ.H DQG ,Q.LGHQ.H 8VLQJ D 9DOLGDWHG $GPLQLVWUDWLYH 'DWD $OJRULWKP ´ ,QVWLWXWH
IRU &OLQL.DO DQG (YDOXDWLYH 6.LHQ.HV PLPHR
.UXHJHU '( ³0HDVXUHPHQW RI 3UHYDOHQ.H RI &KURQL. 'LVHDVH E\ +RXVHKROG ,QWHUYLHZV
DQG &OLQL.DO (YDOXDWLRQV´ $PHUL.DQ -RXUQDO RI 3XEOL. +HDOWK
0DGRZ :* 1HW 'LIIHUHQ.HV LQ ,QWHUYLHZ 'DWD RQ &KURQL. &RQGLWLRQV DQG ,QIRUPDWLRQ
'HULYHG IURP 0HGL.DO 5H.RUGV 5R.NYLOOH 0' 1DWLRQDO &HQWHU IRU +HDOWK 6WDWLVWL.V
9LWDO DQG +HDOWK 6WDWLVWL.V 6HULHV 1R
1DWLRQDO &HQWHU IRU +HDOWK 6WDWLVWL.V +HDOWK ,QWHUYLHZ 5HVSRQVHV &RPSDUHG ZLWK 0HGL.DO
5H.RUGV 5R.NYLOOH 0' 1DWLRQDO &HQWHU IRU +HDOWK 6WDWLVWL.V 9LWDO DQG +HDOWK 6WDWLVWL.V
6HULHV 1R
6WHUQ 6 ³0HDVXULQJ WKH (IIH.W RI 'LVDELOLW\ RQ /DERU )RU.H 3DUWL.LSDWLRQ´ -RXUQDO RI
+XPDQ 5HVRXU.HV
7UHWOL 6 /XQG/DUVHQ 3* DQG 23 )RVV ³5HOLDELOLW\ RI 4XHVWLRQQDLUH ,QIRUPDWLRQ RQ
&DUGLRYDV.XODU 'LVHDVH DQG 'LDEHWHV &DUGLRYDV.XODU 'LVHDVH 6WXG\ LQ )LQQPDUN
&RXQW\´ -RXUQDO RI (SLGHPLRORJ\ DQG &RPPXQLW\ +HDOWK
:LOOLDPV - ,URQ . DQG . :X ³(VWLPDWLQJ WKH ,PSD.W RI $UWKULWLV RQ WKH %XUGHQ
RI 'LVDELOLW\ DQG WKH &RVW RI +HDOWK &DUH 6HUYL.HV´ LQ $UWKULWLV DQG 5HODWHG &RQGLWLRQV
$Q ,&(6 3UD.WL.H $WODV 7RURQWR ,&(6
7DEOH 6XPPDU\ 6WDWLVWL.V IRU .H\ 9DULDEOHV
9DULDEOH 0HDQ
$JH
0DOHV
0DUULHG
:KLWH
8UEDQ
(GX.DWLRQ
/HVV WKDW +LJK 6.KRRO
+LJK 6.KRRO
6RPH 3RVW 6H.RQGDU\
'LSORPD
8QLYHUVLW\ 'HJUHH
3RRU KHDOWK
/LPLWHG LQ KRPH D.WLYLW\
&KURQL. .RQGLWLRQ
&DQ.HU
'LDEHWHV
0LJUDLQHV
6WURNH
$VWKPD
%URQ.KLWLV
6LQXVLWLV
%D.N 3UREOHPV
$UWKULWLV
8O.HUV
&DWDUD.WV
*ODX.RPD
+\SHUWHQVLRQ
1RWHV 6RXU.H LV WKH 13+6 6WDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV
7DEOH &RUUHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ 2+,3 UHVSRQVHV DQG 6HOI5HSRUWHG +HDOWK 5HVSRQVHV
&RQGLWLRQ &RUUHODWLRQ %HWZHHQ 2+,3
5H.RUGV DQG 6HOI5HSRUWHG &RQGLWLRQV
&DQ.HU
'LDEHWHV
0LJUDLQHV
6WURNH
$VWKPD
%URQ.KLWLV
6LQXV 3UREOHPV
$UWKULWLV
%D.N SUREOHPV
8O.HUV
&DWDUD.WV
*ODX.RPD
+\SHUWHQVLRQ
1RWHV 6RXU.H LV WKH 13+6 DQG OLQNHG 2+,3 GDWD
7DEOH D 6XPPDU\ RI )DOVH 1HJDWLYH DQG )DOVH 3RVLWLYH 5HSRUWLQJ E\ &KURQL. &RQGLWLRQ
8VLQJ 1DUURZ 'LDJQRVLV &RGH %DQG
2+,3 'LDJQRVLV )DOVH 1HJDWLYHV DV D )DOVH 3RVLWLYHV DV D )DOVH 3RVLWLYHV DV D
)UD.WLRQ RI 3RVLWLYHV )UD.WLRQ RI 1HJDWLYHV )UD.WLRQ RI 6XUYH\
3RVLWLYHV
&DQ.HU
'LDEHWHV
0LJUDLQHV
6WURNH
$VWKPD
%URQ.KLWLV
6LQXV 3UREOHPV
$UWKULWLV
%D.N SUREOHPV
8O.HUV
&DWDUD.WV
*ODX.RPD
+\SHUWHQVLRQ
1RWHV 6RXU.H LV WKH 13+6 DQG OLQNHG 2+,3 GDWD 5HSRUWHG VWDWLVWL.V DUH SHU.HQWDJHV
7DEOH E 6XPPDU\ RI )DOVH 1HJDWLYH DQG )DOVH 3RVLWLYH 5HSRUWLQJ E\ &KURQL. &RQGLWLRQ
8VLQJ :LGH 'LDJQRVLV &RGH %DQG
2+,3 'LDJQRVLV )DOVH 1HJDWLYHV DV )DOVH 3RVLWLYHV DV D )DOVH 3RVLWLYHV DV D
D )UD.WLRQ RI )UD.WLRQ RI 1HJDWLYHV )UD.WLRQ RI 6XUYH\
3RVLWLYHV 3RVLWLYHV
1HRSODVP ZLWK
&DQ.HU
,PPXQH 6\VWHP
ZLWK 'LDEHWHV
1HUYRXV 6\VWHP
ZLWK 0LJUDLQHV
&LU.XODWRU\ 6\VWHP
ZLWK 6WURNH
5HVSLUDWRU\ ZLWK
$VWKPD
5HVSLUDWRU\ ZLWK
%URQ.KLWLV
5HVSLUDWRU\ ZLWK
6LQXV 3UREOHPV
0XV.OH ZLWK
$UWKULWLV
0XV.OH ZLWK %D.N
SUREOHPV
'LJHVWLYH 6\VWHP
ZLWK 8O.HUV
1HUYRXV 6\VWHP
ZLWK &DWDUD.WV
1HUYRXV 6\VWHP
ZLWK *ODX.RPD
&LU.XODWRU\ V\VWHP
ZLWK +\SHUWHQVLRQ
1RWHV 6RXU.H LV WKH 13+6 DQG OLQNHG 2+,3 GDWD 5HSRUWHG VWDWLVWL.V DUH SHU.HQWDJHV
7DEOH . 6XPPDU\ RI )DOVH 1HJDWLYH DQG )DOVH 3RVLWLYH 5HSRUWLQJ E\ &KURQL. &RQGLWLRQ
8VLQJ 1DUURZ 'LDJQRVLV &RGH %DQG DQG \HDU RI DGPLQLVWUDWLYH GDWD
2+,3 'LDJQRVLV )DOVH 1HJDWLYHV DV D )DOVH 3RVLWLYHV DV D )DOVH 3RVLWLYHV DV D
)UD.WLRQ RI 3RVLWLYHV )UD.WLRQ RI 1HJDWLYHV )UD.WLRQ RI 6XUYH\
3RVLWLYHV
&DQ.HU
'LDEHWHV
0LJUDLQHV
6WURNH
$VWKPD
%URQ.KLWLV
6LQXV 3UREOHPV
$UWKULWLV
%D.N SUREOHPV
8O.HUV
&DWDUD.WV
*ODX.RPD
+\SHUWHQVLRQ
1RWHV 6RXU.H LV WKH 13+6 DQG OLQNHG 2+,3 GDWD 5HSRUWHG VWDWLVWL.V DUH SHU.HQWDJHV
7DEOH G 6XPPDU\ RI )DOVH 1HJDWLYH 5HSRUWLQJ E\ &KURQL. &RQGLWLRQ 8VLQJ RU PRUH
GLDJQRVHV DV D SRVLWLYH
2+,3 'LDJQRVLV )DOVH 1HJDWLYHV DV D )DOVH 3RVLWLYHV DV D )DOVH 3RVLWLYHV DV D
)UD.WLRQ RI 3RVLWLYHV )UD.WLRQ RI 1HJDWLYHV )UD.WLRQ RI 6XUYH\
3RVLWLYHV
&DQ.HU
'LDEHWHV
0LJUDLQHV
6WURNH
$VWKPD
%URQ.KLWLV
6LQXV 3UREOHPV
$UWKULWLV
%D.N SUREOHPV
8O.HUV
&DWDUD.WV
*ODX.RPD
+\SHUWHQVLRQ
1RWHV 6RXU.H LV WKH 13+6 DQG OLQNHG 2+,3 GDWD 5HSRUWHG VWDWLVWL.V DUH SHU.HQWDJHV
7DEOH 6XPPDU\ 6WDWLVWL.V RI WKH 0HDVXUHPHQW (UURU LQ WKH 13+6 6HOI 5HSRUWV RI
&KURQL. &RQGLWLRQV
&RQGLWLRQ 0HDQ 6HOI 0HDQ 0HDQ σ ; EY6
5HSRUW 6 'LDJQRVLV (UURU Y
'
σ + σ ;
&DQ.HU
'LDEHWHV
0LJUDLQH
6WURNH
$VWKPD
%URQ.KLWLV
6LQXVLWLV
$UWKULWLV
%D.N
8O.HUV
&DWDUD.W
*ODX.RPD
+\SHUWHQVLRQ
1RWHV 6RXU.H LV WKH 13+6 DQG OLQNHG 2+,3 GDWD 6WDQGDUG HUURUV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV ³6HOI
5HSRUWV´ DUH WKH VHOIUHSRUWV IURP WKH 13+6 ZKLOH ³'LDJQRVHV´ DUH WKH 2+,3 PHGL.DO UH.RUGV
EY6 LV GHILQHG LQ WKH WH[W
7DEOH 'H.RPSRVLWLRQV RI WKH 0HDVXUHPHQW (UURU LQ WKH 13+6 'DWD
&RQGLWLRQ 'H.RPSRVLWLRQ RI WKH 'H.RPSRVLWLRQ RI WKH 3URSRUWLRQDO %LDV
(UURU 9DULDQ.H
3HU.HQW 'XH 3HU.HQW %LDV 'XH WR 'XH WR 3HU.HQW 3HU.HQW
WR )DOVH 'XH WR EY6 )DOVH )DOVH 'XH WR 'XH WR
3RVLWLYHV )DOVH 3RVLWLYHV 1HJDWLYHV )DOVH )DOVH
1HJDWLYHV 3RVLWLYHV 1HJDWLYHV
&DQ.HU
'LDEHWHV
0LJUDLQH
6WURNH
$VWKPD
%URQ.KLWLV
6LQXVLWLV
$UWKULWLV
%D.N
8O.HUV
&DWDUD.W
*ODX.RPD
+\SHUWHQVLRQ
1RWHV 6RXU.H LV WKH 13+6 DQG OLQNHG 2+,3 GDWD 6WDQGDUG HUURUV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV EY6 LV
GHILQHG LQ WKH WH[W 'H.RPSRVLWLRQV RI HUURU YDULDQ.H GR QRW DGG WR EH.DXVH WKH .RYDULDQ.H
WHUP LV QRW UHSRUWHG 7KH GH.RPSRVLWLRQ RI WKH SURSRUWLRQDO ELDV LV GXH WR $LJQHU
7DEOH -XVWLIL.DWLRQ +\SRWKHVLV 5HJUHVVLRQV
'HSHQGHQW 6HOI 6HOI 6HOI 6HOI 6HOI 6HOI
9DULDEOH 5HSRUW 5HSRUW _ 5HSRUW 5HSRUW _ UHSRUW 5HSRUW _
2+,3 2+,3 2+,3 2+,3 2+,3 2+,3
&RYDULDWHV 1 1 < < < <
&RHIIL.LHQW :RUN :RUN :RUN :RUN )XOOWLPH )XOOWLPH
RQ
&DQ.HU
'LDEHWHV
0LJUDLQH
6WURNH
$VWKPD
%URQ.KLWLV
6LQXVLWLV
$UWKULWLV
%D.N
8O.HUV
&DWDUD.W
*ODX.RPD
+\SHUWHQVLRQ
1RWHV 6RXU.H LV WKH 13+6 DQG OLQNHG 2+,3 GDWD 5REXVW VWDQGDUG HUURUV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV
GHQRWHV VLJQLIL.DQ.H DW WKH SHU.HQW OHYHO GHQRWHV VLJQLIL.DQ.H DW WKH SHU.HQW OHYHO 7KH
UHSRUWHG VWDWLVWL.V DUH WKH HVWLPDWHG SDUDPHWHUV RQ D GXPP\ YDULDEOH IRU ZRUN RU D GXPP\
YDULDEOH IRU ZRUNLQJ IXOO WLPH :KHUH LQGL.DWHG .RYDULDWHV LQ.OXGH D TXDUWL. LQ DJH GXPP\
YDULDEOHV IRU HGX.DWLRQDO DWWDLQPHQW VH[ UHVLGHQ.H LQ DQ XUEDQ DUHD DQG PDULWDO VWDWXV
5HJUHVVLRQV DUH HVWLPDWHG VHSDUDWHO\ E\ .RQGLWLRQ 6DPSOH LV UHVWUL.WHG WR ZRUNLQJ LQGLYLGXDOV
IRU WKH ZRUNLQJ IXOO WLPH UHJUHVVLRQV
7DEOH (VWLPDWHV RI WKH (IIH.W RI ,QWHQVLW\ RQ WKH ,Q.LGHQ.H RI )DOVH 1HJDWLYHV
&RQGLWLRQ 2+,3 2+,3
'LDJQRVHV 'LDJQRVHV
&DQ.HU
'LDEHWHV
0LJUDLQH
6WURNH
$VWKPD
%URQ.KLWLV
C
6LQXVLWLV
$UWKULWLV
%D.N
8O.HUV
&DWDUD.W
*ODX.RPD
+\SHUWHQVLRQ
1RWHV 6RXU.H LV WKH 13+6 DQG OLQNHG 2+,3 GDWD 5REXVW VWDQGDUG HUURUV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV
GHQRWHV VLJQLIL.DQ.H DW WKH SHU.HQW OHYHO GHQRWHV VLJQLIL.DQ.H DW WKH SHU.HQW OHYHO 7KH
UHSRUWHG VWDWLVWL.V DUH WKH HVWLPDWHG SDUDPHWHUV RQ GXPP\ YDULDEOHV IRU RU UHSRUWV RI
WKH LQGL.DWHG .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQ LQ WKH 2+,3 GDWD IURP D UHJUHVVLRQ RI D LQGL.DWRU RI IDOVH
QHJDWLYHV RQ WKHVH YDULDEOHV SOXV D TXDUWL. LQ DJH GXPP\ YDULDEOHV IRU HGX.DWLRQDO DWWDLQPHQW
VH[ UHVLGHQ.H LQ DQ XUEDQ DUHD DQG PDULWDO VWDWXV 5HJUHVVLRQV DUH HVWLPDWHG VHSDUDWHO\ E\
.RQGLWLRQ 7KH HVWLPDWLRQ VDPSOH LV LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR KDYH DW OHDVW RQH 2+,3 DGPLQLVWUDWLYH
UH.RUG IRU D SDUWL.XODU .KURQL. .RQGLWLRQ 7KHUH ZHUH QR .DVHV LQ WKH GDWD ZKHUH D UHVSRQGHQW KDG
JUHDWHU WKDQ 2+,3 GLDJQRVHV IRU VLQXVLWLV RU PRUH WKDQ 2+,3 GLDJQRVHV IRU XO.HUV
7DEOH (VWLPDWHV RI WKH (IIH.WV RI :DJHV DQG +HDOWK RQ /DERU 0DUNHW 3DUWL.LSDWLRQ
0HDVXUH 1RQH *OREDO 3K\VL.DO ,QGH[ RI ,QGH[ RI
RI +HDOWK +HDOWK /LPLWDWLRQV 6HOI 2+,3
5HSRUWHG 5HSRUWHG
$LOPHQWV $LOPHQWV
2/6
:DJH
+HDOWK
,9 ,QGH[ RI 6HOI5HSRUWHG &KURQL. $LOPHQWV DV ,QVWUXPHQW
:DJH
+HDOWK
,9 ,QGH[ RI 2+,3 5HSRUWHG &KURQL. $LOPHQWV DV ,QVWUXPHQW
:DJH
+HDOWK
1RWHV 6RXU.H LV WKH 13+6 DQG OLQNHG 2+,3 GDWD 5REXVW VWDQGDUG HUURUV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV
7KH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH LV D LQGL.DWRU RI ODERU PDUNHW SDUWL.LSDWLRQ 2WKHU H[SODQDWRU\
YDULDEOHV DUH D TXDUWL. LQ DJH PDULWDO VWDWXV VH[ DQG GXPP\ YDULDEOHV IRU UHVLGHQ.H LQ DQ XUEDQ
DUHD DQG YLVLEOH PLQRULW\ VWDWXV 7KH HTXDWLRQ LV HVWLPDWHG XVLQJ WKH VDPSOH RI LQGLYLGXDOV DJHG
DQG ROGHU ZKR DUH QRW HQUROOHG LQ V.KRRO
7DEOH (VWLPDWHV RI WKH (IIH.WV RI :DJHV DQG +HDOWK RQ WKH /DERU 0DUNHW 3DUWL.LSDWLRQ
RI 2OGHU ,QGLYLGXDOV
0HDVXUH 1RQH *OREDO 3K\VL.DO ,QGH[ RI ,QGH[ RI
RI +HDOWK +HDOWK /LPLWDWLRQV 6HOI 2+,3
5HSRUWHG 5HSRUWHG
$LOPHQWV $LOPHQWV
2/6
:DJH
+HDOWK
,9 ,QGH[ RI 6HOI5HSRUWHG &KURQL. $LOPHQWV DV ,QVWUXPHQWV
:DJH
+HDOWK
,9 ,QGH[ RI 2+,3 5HSRUWHG &KURQL. $LOPHQWV DV ,QVWUXPHQWV
:DJH
+HDOWK
1RWHV 6RXU.H LV WKH 13+6 DQG OLQNHG 2+,3 GDWD 5REXVW VWDQGDUG HUURUV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV
7KH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH LV D LQGL.DWRU RI ODERU PDUNHW SDUWL.LSDWLRQ 2WKHU H[SODQDWRU\
YDULDEOHV DUH D TXDUWL. LQ DJH PDULWDO VWDWXV VH[ DQG GXPP\ YDULDEOHV IRU UHVLGHQ.H LQ DQ XUEDQ
DUHD DQG YLVLEOH PLQRULW\ VWDWXV 7KH HTXDWLRQ LV HVWLPDWHG XVLQJ WKH VDPSOH RI LQGLYLGXDOV DJHG
DQG ROGHU ZKR DUH QRW HQUROOHG LQ V.KRRO
)LJXUHV 7KH 'LVWULEXWLRQ RI 6HOI$VVHVVHG +HDOWK 6WDWXV E\ 6HOI5HSRUWHG &KURQL.
&RQGLWLRQ
D E
:LWK
:LWK
&DQ.HU 'LDEHWHV
:LWKRXW
:LWKRXW 'LDEHWHV
&DQ.HU
. G
:LWK
:LWK
0LJUDLQHV 6WURNHV
:LWKRXW :LWKRXW
0LJUDLQHV 6WURNHV
H I
:LWK :LWK
$VWKPD %URQ.KLWLV
:LWKRXW :LWKRXW
$VWKPD %URQ.KLWLV
J K
:LWK :LWK
6LQXVLWLV $UWKULWLV
:LWKRXW :LWKRXW
6LQXVLWLV $UWKULWLV
L M
:LWK :LWK
%D.N
8O.HUV
3UREOHPV
:LWKRXW
:LWKRXW
%D.N 8O.HUV
3UREOHPV
N O
:LWK :LWK
&DWDUD.WV *ODX.RPD
:LWKRXW :LWKRXW
&DWDUD.WV *ODX.RPD
P
:LWK
+\SHU
WHQVLRQ
:LWKRXW
+\SHU
WHQVLRQ
1RWHV 6RXU.H LV WKH 13+6 7KH [D[LV UH.RUGV VHOIDVVHVVHG KHDOWK UDQJLQJ IURP H[.HOOHQW
WR SRRU 7KH \D[LV UH.RUGV WKH SHU.HQW RI WKH VDPSOH LQ HD.K .DWHJRU\
)LJXUHV $ &RPSDULVRQ RI WKH 'LVWULEXWLRQ RI 6HOI$VVHVVHG +HDOWK 6WDWXV E\ 6HOI
5HSRUWHG &KURQL. &RQGLWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH 13+6 DQG +56
D E
:,7+287 &$1&(5 :,7+ &$1&(5
:LWKRXW
:LWK
&DQ.HU
&DQ.HU
+56 +56
:LWKRXW
:LWK
&DQ.HU
&DQ.HU
13+6 13+6
. G
:,7+287 %$&. :,7+ %$&.
:LWKRXW :LWK
%D.N %D.N
+56 +56
:LWKRXW :LWK
%D.N %D.N
13+6 13+6
H I
:,7+287 +<3(57(16,21 :,7+ +<3(57(16,21
W ihout
t
t
W ih
peren
Hy t
si -
on
Hy t
peren
on
si -
HRS
HRS
t
W ihout t
W ih
Hy t
peren
peren
Hy t
on
si - on
si -
NPHS
NPHS
1RWHV 6RXU.H LV WKH 13+6 DQG +56 7KH [D[LV UH.RUGV VHOIDVVHVVHG KHDOWK UDQJLQJ
IURP H[.HOOHQW WR SRRU 7KH \D[LV UH.RUGV WKH SHU.HQW RI VDPSOH LQ HD.K .DWHJRU\
