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					Seminar:               Freight and Logistics
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                                                     Session FL 01i
A freight forecasting model for the Strategic Rail Authority
ASHLEY, D, Sinclair Knight Merz, Australia
BROOKER, I, Sinclair Knight Merz, UK
HAWTHORNE, J, Sinclair Knight Merz, UK
HUGHES, C, Strategic Rail Authority, UK
In May 2001, the British Strategic Rail Authority set out its strategy for delivery of the 80% growth in
freight by rail over the period of the Government’s 10 Year Plan. In order to inform this strategy, and to
understand the potential for the growth of freight, a demand forecasting model has been developed by
Sinclair Knight Merz (Europe), for the SRA.

This paper describes the development of the model, from the initial version which produces national
forecasts, to the current version which can be used for regional and corridor studies.

A particular feature is the development of a detailed database of road and rail freight movements across
Great Britain to enable the synthesis of input datasets for specific regions and corridors.

The model brings together a series of techniques developed by SKM, and drawing on work by AEA
Technology and Leeds ITS, into an integrated package.

The total freight market is segmented by size of road vehicle, rail connectivity and load size. A series of
filters are applied to the freight market to exclude traffic which consists of small loads or cannot use
required sections of the network. These filters can be adjusted to reflect different scenarios.

A separate module is used to calculate break-even distances for each commodity and segment using a
very detailed cost model. Mode share is determined by a logit function based on distance relative to the
break-even distance.

An important factor in the development of the model has been to maximise practical useability by the
client, with particular emphasis on the development of a simple user interface. This enables the SRA to
model the effects of possible legislative and regulatory changes, such as permitted lorry weights and
track access charges, also factors such as enhancement to the rail loading gauge on specific routes.

SKM has considerable hands-on freight experience, and the modular approach to development of the
model has enabled the outputs from each module to be benchmarked against identifiable features and
trends in the freight market, enabling a good representation of how the freight market actually works.

The paper concludes with a review of some of the problem areas encountered by SKM in developing
models of this type, including the particular issues arising from emerging changes in the UK freight

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                                                    Session FL 01ii
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Modelling the demand for rail freight in Great Britain: transport markets, model
requirements, transport strategy

GARRATT, M, MDS-Transmodal, UK
NEWTON, S, MDS-Transmodal, UK
Successive UK transport policy initiatives have stressed the importance of raising rail’s share of
domestic inland transport. The Ten-Year Plan, the SRA Freight Strategy, and the European
Commission’s Transport White Paper set out long term objectives for rail freight, underlining this
commitment. At local and regional levels, policy makers have also been active and increasingly
ambitious in developing rail freight’s potential, and contributing to this development process.
During the 1990s, many rail freight terminals have been developed and operated successfully by the
private sector, catering for unit load traffic. Despite a rapid decline in traditional markets for rail, the
sector has experienced growth. The opening of the Channel Tunnel, the privatisation of the British rail
industry and a number of revenue support and capital investment schemes have all raised the profile of
the industry and also raised expectations. However the constraints on the rail freight industry are well
known, still active, and increasingly politically sensitive.

In an industry where key investment decisions are made in the private sector by the companies who
control the freight traffic, it has been necessary to develop a strategic overview of rail market structures,
supported by quantitative techniques to prioritise and integrate policy initiatives. Transport models can
help to reduce uncertainty and complexity by encapsulating the microeconomic forces, bridging the gap
between policy and markets.

This presentation will consider three areas:
- The specific model design criteria for the rail freight sector: an evolving process of consensus and
- The software implementation developed by MDS-Transmodal and ITS, informed by the SRA, the
DTLR, the Scottish Executive and Railtrack.
- The implications of the modelling work for transport policy, considering a specific case study.

The content will be based on recent research work, including the DTLR’s review of freight modelling
techniques, and the development of rail freight forecasts for the SRA’s 2001 Freight Strategy

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                                                     Session FL 02i
National and international freight transport models: overview and ideas for future

GUNN, H, RAND Europe, The Netherlands
JONG, G de, RAND Europe, The Netherlands
WALKER, W, RAND Europe, The Netherlands

In a number of European countries, national model systems have been developed that can be used for
forecasting future freight transport volumes and/or vehicle flows. The paper will contain a review and
comparison of a number of such systems, including:
- The Swedish national freight model system (SAMGODS);
- The Norwegian national freight model system (NEMO). Both SAMGODS and NEMO use the
  STAN software for multi-modal assignment;
- The Walloon region freight model system in Belgium (WFTM), which uses the NODUS multi-modal
  assignment software;
- The Italian national model system, which for freight uses input-output models and disaggregate mode
  choice models;
- The Dutch models TEM and SMILE. The former uses input-output methods, the latter has make-use
  tables and a logistic module for the location of distribution centres;
- Models used in the UK for national freight transport forecasts (e.g. based on the STEMM project).

Furthermore, a number of international model systems will be included:
- The SCENES and NEAC models for Europe;
- Models for specific international corridors (e.g. fixed link projects in Scandinavia, Alpine crossings).

The material for these reviews has been collected in the course of model review projects for the
European Commission, in Sweden and the UK.

The second part of the paper will focus on ideas for future development of freight transport models that
should increase the accuracy of the forecasts and the range of policy applications of the models. We
recommend that two different types of models be developed:
- A fast policy analysis model, for initial screening and comparison of policy alternatives;
- A detailed network-based forecasting model, for predictions at the network level and to provide
  inputs for project evaluation.

The former model can be developed as a system dynamics model and/or a model integrating outputs
from other more detailed models.

For the the detailed model we propose that a number of interlinked modules be developed:
At the national/international level:
- An input-output model for production/attraction and a distribution model;
- A disaggregate model for mode and shipment size choice, based on combined stated and revelealed
  preference data;
At the regional/urban level:
- A disaggregate model linked with the inputs and outputs of a disaggregate passenger model;
At all geographical levels:
- An assignment module.

The starting point for our ideas on the regional/urban model is the use of information from disaggregate
passenger travel demand models to improve base year information and improve forecasts, including
linking factors affecting demand for personal travel to factors affecting freight movements. In addition,
this approach would offer a chance to improve the network supply/demand processes that should
jointly affect both freight and passenger transport.

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                                                     Session FL 02ii
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A general multi-step model for urban freight movements

COMI, A, University of Reggio Calabria, Italy
RUSSO, F, University of Reggio Calabria, Italy
Freight demand models are one of the key components of the transport plans at the strategic, tactical
and operative level. Local authorities need to predict future transport requirements both for passengers
and freight so as to plan the development of infrastructures and related human resources. The private
sector requires models to predict transport service demand in order to evaluate future needs. This
applies both to transport service managers, producers of consumer goods and firms using transport
services, as well as manufacturers of commercial vehicles.

One of the greatest difficulties in analysing freight mobility is the identification of decision-makers
involved in the process. In the case of freight, there is no sole decision-maker who chooses trip
characteristics, but rather a complex set of decision-makers responsible for production, distribution and
marketing who, in turn, operate in different field as producers, who have an economic function and deal
with the production of goods, or as consumers, who are freight consumers and become producers of
semi-finished goods, destined for the markets and hence towards end-consumers.

In this paper a general multi-step model to simulate urban freight transport is proposed. Then the
specification, calibration and validation of the attraction model is reported, performed by means of two
different sample and corrected by means of traffic counts.

The proposed freight transport models, for a medium-size city, with a disaggregated approach, can be
segmented in different steps some of which have been specificated and calibrated:
- Quantity attraction and distribution models. From the general population data (residents, number of
  employed, stores) the quantity for each category is calculated that reaches each traffic zone o in one
  day arriving from each zone d; in this case it is assumed that the decision-maker is the end consumer;
- Acquisition Model (or large scale distribution). From the data on the location of logistic bases, general
  stores, freight village, etc. it is possible to calculate for a general retailer in zone d the d-w probability
  of purchasing, in the generic zone w, the goods that are on sale in his/her store;
- Models for the choice of service and vehicle type. The type of vehicle used for each goods class, with
  the quantity that it transports and the type of service effected by it (one-to-one, one-to-many,
  many-to-many, many-to-one) is obtained by means of a logistic model;
- Path choice model. For each type of service the probability of each path is evaluated.
                                                     Session FL 02iii
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Understanding the growth in service trips and developing transport modelling approaches to
commercial, service and light goods movements

ALLEN, J, University of Westminster, UK
ANDERSON, S, University of Westminster, UK
BROWNE, M, University of Westminster, UK
WIGAN, M, Oxford Systematics, Australia
Freight modelling and analysis has recently risen in importance. However although the concentration to
date on specifically 'freight' vehicles and lorries has begun to cover the bulk of commodity tonnage
flows, it has not properly addressed the mix of commercial, service and light goods movements that
make up the bulk of the vehicle movements involved. The importance of these mixed light vehicle flows
has been well established in freight policy considerations (Wigan 1978,1979), but the nature of the
activities serviced by these movements has progressively changed, Lorry sizes have also increased
substantially, so that the shipment of bulk tonnage involves fewer road vehicle movements

In recent years there has been considerable speculation that the increases in the importance of the
service sector and the growth of out-sourcing has led to increased LGV and LCV traffic in urban areas.
This paper addresses on-going research into the importance of the service sector in trip patterns and
the associated, but not identical, traffic generation of light goods vehicles and light commercial vehicles
(LGVs and LCVs). Despite the growing importance of this element of urban traffic the scale of activity,
the problems caused and experienced and the nature of the operations are not well understood by
researchers and policy makers.

The overlaps between personal travel and commercial, service and light goods travel are particularly
difficult to identify and handle as they can take place using either personal- or goods- labelled vehicles.
The factors that are likely to result in the future growth of service (i.e. the family of commercial, service
and light goods movement categories) trips in urban areas are discussed. The problems involved in
researching service-related vehicle trips and developing suitable modelling approaches are also

Based on work carried out in the UK and Australia the paper addresses a range of service trip types,
explores definitions and categories of service trips, comparing and contrasting these with goods trips.
In some cases there is overlap and it is important to identify this in order to understand the emerging
patterns of vehicle activity and operation.

There are typically difficulties in existing data in distinguishing between commercial movements and
private movements of vans (LGVs and LCVs). However, it is important to do this in order to be able
to collect data that may be used for modeling vehicle activity. The paper considers the transport
modeling issues that arise from these developments, outlining possible modeling approaches and
considering the data requirements, and the growing need to consider service industry activities as a
distinct type of transport and activity process.

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                                                     Session FL 03i
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UK freight modelling - the ways ahead
SHAHKARAMI, M, Department for Transport, UK
The amount of goods transported is a function of economic activity and is linked to economic
prosperity and growth. Increasing the cost of freight movements has a significant negative impact on
industry, so it is important that operators, government and network managers work together to optimise
the movement of goods.

However, much less effort has traditionally been devoted to freight forecasting than to passenger
demand modelling. Factors responsible for this include the lack of sufficiently comprehensive
conceptual models of the freight industry and a paucity of suitable data. For this reason, models have
usually involved gathering data only on vehicle movement, creating observed traffic flow matrices and
then using growth factors for future projections. The results have been unsatisfactory because the
vehicle trip volumes show little correlation with land use data. In addition the matrices are usually poor,
having little or no behavioural basis, and with no sensitivity for tests of policy issues or forecasting

The aim of this paper is to report on potential ways ahead for freight modelling and assessing which
techniques would be most suited in Great Britain. It is based on the findings of a research project that
the Department has commissioned to review current freight modelling methods including those used in
other countries. The review covers road freight and other modes as well as modelling light goods
vehicles. It also looks at data requirements and the applicability of the different approaches at different
levels of geographical scale (from strategic National level to small scheme) and the need to address
appropriate policy questions at each level.

                                                     Session FL 03ii
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Preliminary insights into the practical implications of modelling commercial vehicle empty trips

HOLGUIN-VERAS, J, Rensselaer Polytecnic Institute, USA
THORSON, E, Rensselaer Polytecnic Institute, USA
The latter part of the 20th Century and the beginning of the 21st is a period of profound and
revolutionary transformations in the area of computer technology, communication networks, information
and production systems (most notably Just In Time). The convergence of these trends and the
development and growth of the Internet have made possible ever deeper changes in the ways both
businesses and consumers do their economic transactions. All of this points toward an increasing role of
the freight transportation system as the conveyor of goods for the e-commerce systems. At the same
time, there is increasing pressure from both community and environmental groups to ameliorate the
negative impacts of freight activity. However, in spite of the negative externalities that freight activity
produces, there is no doubt that freight transportation makes significant contributions to the economy.
All of the above implies that the freight transportation systems of the 21st Century will be expected to
cover a larger geographic area, be more responsive to user needs and expectations, reduce the
environmental, safety and health externalities associated with truck traffic; and do all of this in a context
in which the provision of additional freight infrastructure capacity will become more difficult and
expensive. In other words, the freight transportation system will have to do more with less. This, in turn,
puts a significant amount of pressure of Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) to enhance their
freight transportation planning processes. This objective is confounded by the lack of
freight-transportation-specific demand modelling methodologies. For the most part, the bulk of freight
transportation modelling applications are nothing more than adaptations of modelling methodologies
originally designed for passenger transportation, that tend to overlook the fundamental differences
between freight movements and passenger transportation.

Although the complexity of freight demand modelling has been discussed elsewhere (e.g.,
Holguín-Veras and Thorson, 2000; Cambridge Systematics, 1997; Ogden, 1992) it is important, for the purposes
of this paper, to briefly discuss the multidimensional nature of freight demand. One of the
unique features of freight transportation is that there are a number of different dimensions to be taken
into account, most notably: weight, volume, number of vehicle-trips, and value of the commodities being
transported. Each of these dimensions represents a different way to define and measure freight
 transportation demand, with important implications for freight demand modelling. The existence of these different
 dimensions has resulted into two major modelling platforms: commodity-based and vehicle-trip based modelling.
 These approaches represent, in essence, uni-dimensional views of a multi-dimensional problem with tonnage,
 vehicle-trips, and value as the most relevant dimensions. A recent formulation attempts to bridge the gap
 between commodity based and vehicle-trip based models by formulating the urban good problem as a market in
 economic equilibrium (Holguín-Veras, 2000). Vehicle-trip based modelling focuses on depicting the flows of
 commercial vehicles, e.g., truck trips. The focus on vehicle trips enables this type of models to consider both
 loaded and empty trips. However, they have some significant limitations. First and foremost, they are unable to
 take into account the economic characteristics of the cargoes that play an important role in the vehicle selection,
mode choice and routing processes, as demonstrated theoretically in the context of optimal pricing in Holguín-
Veras and Jara-Díaz (1999) and empirically in McFadden et al. (1986), Abdelwahab (1998), and Holguín-Veras
(2002). A second limitation is that because of their focus on the vehicle trip -in itself the result of a choice process
that already took place- these models are of limited applicability to multimodal freight transportation systems.
Commodity-based modelling, on the other hand, focuses on the amount of commodities being transported,
usually defined by its weight. The focus on commodities enables these models to depict the fundamental
processes taking place and, in doing so, to take into account the economic characteristics of cargoes. Commodity
based models do have a limitation, which is related to their inability to model empty trips, that are the result of
logistic decisions not directly explained by the commodity flows. This limitation is usually addressed at the
calibration stage by means of expanding the commodity distribution matrix so that the resulting traffic assignment
resembles the calibration values.

 Although a widely used pragmatic solution, this approach is of questionable validity. First, there is no way to
 ensure that the resulting number of empty trips is consistent with the area wide estimates of the
total number of empty trips. Second, expanding a commodity trip matrix to compensate for the missing
empty trips implies that empty trips are directly correlated with the commodity flows. This assumption is very weak
because the commodity flow between two zones determines the amount of loaded trips
between them, not the amount of empty trips.

A different way of overcoming this limitation of commodity based models is to develop complementary
models to depict empty trips as a function of the routing choices that the commercial vehicle operators
make, which are based on the commodity flows in the study area. This is the approach that is
considered here. This paper uses probability principles to formulate a model of empty trips as a part of
a commercial vehicle trip chain. In this paper, new mathematical formulations that depict the flow of
empty commercial vehicles as a function of a given matrix of commodity flows were developed. These
formulations are based on probability principles and spatial interaction concepts. The models are based
on the concept of order of a trip chain, defined as the number of additional stops with respect to the
primary trip, and provide a statistical link between the first order and higher order trip chains. Three
different destination choice probability functions were hypothesized based on different assumptions
about the destination choice process. One of these formulations included a memory component, that
takes into account the amount of travel already done in the destination choice process. An example,
based on data from an origin-destination study in Guatemala City, is included to show the practicality of
the proposed models. The numerical results indicated a slight superiority of the formulation that takes
into account the length of the previous trip. In all cases, this model outperformed the previous models
which seems to be an indication of the reasonableness of its fundamental assumptions and specifically of
the benefits of including a memory function. The paper also provides empirical evidence of the
importance of modelling empty trips. The Root Mean Squared Error of the estimation increased
between 57% and 83%, with respect to the best empty trip model, if empty trips are not explicitly modeled.

Holguin-Veras and Thorson (2002) developed a new set of models of commercial vehicle empty trips
based on a first order model of trip chains. The models are based on the concept of order of a trip
chain, defined as the number of additional stops with respect to the primary trip. The expected value of
the total number of trips between an origin-destination pair has been reinterpreted as the summation of
the expected values for the commercial vehicle trip chains for the different orders. This formulation
enabled the authors to express the expected value of the total number of trips as a function of the
expected values for a zero order and a first order trip chain and a set of parameters. On the basis of
probability principles, the previous developments of Noortman and van Es' (1978) and Hautzinger
(1984) were reinterpreted as zero-order trip chain models. Three different destination choice
probability functions were hypothesized based on different assumptions about the destination choice
process. One of these formulations included a memory component, intended to take into account the
amount of travel already done in the destination choice process. In general, the models developed here
depict empty trips as the summation of a zero order trip chain term and a first order trip chain term,
expanded to take into account higher order terms. These formulations suggest that the number of empty
trips in a given area is determined by the probability of a zero order trip chain, p, the parameter that
represents the ratio of higher order trip chains with respect to the first order term, and the probabilities
of not getting loads. The parameters of the destination choice models do not determine the amount of
empty trips, only the choice of destination.

An example, based on data from an origin-destination study in Guatemala City, was included in this
paper. In all cases, the models developed here performed better than the Noortman and van Es' model,
though by different margins, measured by the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Two different
variants of models were tested: unconstrained and constrained (those that replicate a given value of the
percentage of empty trips). In the case in which there is a significant amount of zero-order trip chains,
i.e., intercity trips, Noortman and van Es' model is outperformed by only 1.32% (unconstrained) and
4.89% (constrained). However, when tested in a situation in which zero order trip chains are less
dominant, i.e., urban trips, the best model outperformed Noortman and van Es' model by 9.98%
(unconstrained) and 8.63% (constrained). As expected, the unconstrained models perform better that
the constrained ones, though by a small margin of less than 5%. The paper also provides evidence of
the importance of explicitly modeling empty trips. The RMSEs calculated under the assumption that
empty trips are not modeled are significantly higher than the ones corresponding to the best empty trip
model. In the case study considered here, these percentage differences range from 57.24% (intercity
movements with 31.59% empty trips) to 83.58% (suburban movements with 35.54% empty trips).

The paper will focus on the assessment of the practical implications of the models developed by
Holguin-Veras and Thorson (2002). Using data from different origin-destination studies, the authors
assess the accuracy of the estimates, ease of application and directional implications of both using and
not using the empty trip models. The knowledge gained through this examination will provide guidelines
to both academicians and practitioners on the use of empty trip models.

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                                                     Session FL 04i
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Modelling the demand for sea transport on the Baltic Sea

BERGLUND, C M, Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Sweden
The purpose of this paper is to develop a model where the demand for international goods transport is
derived from the demand for international trade, and to estimate the effects of transport cost changes.
These effects can be summarised by two elasticity measures. The first is an own-elasticity of demand
for import transport, from i to j, with respect to a general transport cost change in all relations. The
second is a cross-elasticity of import transport demand from alternative import sources, 1, 2,..., h to j,
with respect to transport cost changes on the relation i to j.

The cross-section models, found in the literature, do not provide any results on simultaneously
estimated elasticity measures of the mentioned types. Theoretically it may seem that time-series data is
required for this task. However, sufficiently long time-series of transport and trade data are seldom
available and without long series, estimation usually suffers from statistical problems. The model of this
paper is reformulated so that it can be estimated on cross-section as well as panel data.

The model is set out for empirical tests on an extended Baltic Sea Region. Sea transport is the dominant
mode of transport for international trade in this region. The reason for the extension is to also study the
extent of competition between sea and land transports.

Preliminary estimation results show that it is doubtful whether a general transport cost change affect
total import levels. However, a transport cost change in one particular relation clearly affects the
distribution of countries used as import sources. The results also show that per capita income is to a
varying extent positively correlated to the demand for import transport and the elasticity is dependent
on the commodity group. Other factors affecting the transport demand are also included in the

                                                     Session FL 04ii
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Road transport vs. Ro-Ro: a modellistic approach to freight modal choice
BERNETTI, G, University of Trieste, Italy
DALL'ACQUA, M, University of Trieste, Italy
LONGO, G, University of Trieste, Italy
This paper deals with the freight transportation system at national and international level. In particular
the analysis has been focused on the modal choice step within the transportation planning process.
Two transportation modes have been taken into account: the road transport and the road-maritime intermodal one
(Ro-Ro). Moreover only medium range trips have been considered.

The behaviour of the operators has been considered at an aggregate level and also the modellistic
approach takes into account average values which could be available in a planning process at strategic
level. In particular a binomial Logit model has been chosen.

According to these premises, a lot of data have been collected about both the freight transportation
demand and supply. Particular attention has been paid on the attributes to be included within the utility
function of both modes. Some attributes have been chosen and determined according to similar models
which exist in the literature, while some new elements have been introduced in order to take into
consideration particular situations such as for example the administrative process which goes with
transport especially in the case of international trips. Some of these new attributes have been included
on the basis of an analysis which has been carried out on some existing international Ro-Ro services in
the Mediterranean.

Two models have been calibrated and validated on the Adriatic freight transportation system from
Southern and Central Italy and Turkey to the Italian north east regions, Slovenia, Austria and southern
Germany. The first one refers only to the Italian transport system, while the second takes into
consideration the international one. In particular, the study has been focused on one of the most
important north Adriatic Italian port (Trieste).

The calibration procedures gives good results for both models (R2>0,80) and also the other statistical
indicators take interesting values. These results will be discussed in much more detail within the paper.

These models could be used on one hand to estimate the effects on the demand behaviour caused by
some supply modification or, on another hand to evaluate the feasibility of infrastructural projects.
Further developments include the increase of the data base, the extension of the choice set also to the
railway and the realisation of a multinomial Logit model.

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                                                     Session FL 04iii
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Strategic market segments and prospects of Short Sea Shipping in the Eastern
Mediterranean and the Black Sea

KAPROS, S, University of the Aegean, Greece
PANOU, K, National Technical University of Athens, Greece
This paper attempts to identify, analyze and quantify the structural changes and major developments in
the Short Sea Shipping market in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea region. The importance
of maritime transport and seaport activities in the area is gradually increasing since several of the
adjacent countries are in the process of transition from a planed economy to a market economy. In
parallel, the on going restructuring of the Short Sea Shipping market is accelerated by policy
developments (e.g. commercialization of ports), in both the EU and the third countries. The concept of
Intermodality, reflected in the EU seaports policy, places seaports as interfaces between sea and land
transport, thus, considering them links in integrated transport chains. Various policy developments
(COM(99)317 final, Council Resolution 2000/C 56/02) aiming at a modal shift from road to intermodal
 transport significantly influence the Short Sea Shipping opportunities and practices.

Given the above, the paper firstly aims to identify and analyse the most important factors controlling the
restructuring process of Short Sea Shipping from the supply side. These factors include:
(a) the network (spatial) configuration of Short Sea Shipping operators in the region - related to port
choice criteria,
(b) the service characteristics, and
(c) the technological developments.

The analysis reveals the intensification of competition between ports and operators, the growing
interdependence among actors and some persisting problems of network operations in the region.
Certain particularities, compared to the network characteristics of the western Mediterranean are also
addressed at the level of cargo procedures, spatial hierarchy and services.

The paper then attempts to quantify the potential of Short Sea Shipping demand. Using different
combinations of socio-economic and transport policy scenarios the freight transport flows on major sea
links are estimated as underlying assumptions change. Subsequently, an Origin-Destination Matrix is
generated, consisting of trade flows between regions of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea (for the
year 2015) using the following segmentation: solid bulk (low value goods, solid), liquid bulk (low value
goods, liquid), general cargo (medium value goods and other goods) and containerised cargo (high
value goods).

For all the examined scenarios the freight volumes (in million tons per year) are computed for:
(a) the "do nothing policy" - which assumes that none of the scheduled projects for the development of
inland corridors between the EU and the CEEC/CIS, will be carried out and,
(b) other "possible transport policies" -promoting, for example, new investments for infrastructure, new
traffic management techniques, inter-modal traffic, etc.

The paper results provide the basis for specifying policy measures and developing particular technical
and organisational plans for the promotion of Short Sea Shipping and Intermodality in the Eastern

                                                     Session FL 05i
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The rise and fall of the maritime mainport concept

KUIPERS, B, TNO Inro, The Netherlands
In the late 1980s, the seaport of Rotterdam and Schiphol airport became mainports. The mainport
originally is a policy concept related to the forward and backward linkages of large transportation
nodes. But the mainport concept also is a transport concept, also referred to as the hub in
hub-and-spoke networks or the gateway concept. In the year 2000 the dominant position of the
mainport in policymaking decreased. Interestingly, the decrease of the importance of the mainport as a
policy concept was accompanied by a decrease of the importance of the mainport as a transport

This paper describes the rise and fall of the maritime mainport. It starts with a definition of the mainport
and with a discussion of the popularity of the concept in the Netherlands. Second an overview will be
presented of port concentration and mainport development in Europe during the period 1985-2000.
Third, the economic linkages of the mainport will be presented in detail and a discussion will be started
on a ‘domino-effect’, in which the economic effects of the mainport are linked to the whole economy.
This domino effect is called the ‘distrubution hypothesis’. Special attention will be given to the relation between the
mainport and the European Distribution centre. Fourth, some alternative visions of
mainport development will be presented. The brainport, launched as the ‘new economy’ version of the
mainport, will be described in detail. Fifth, a new policy and port paradigm will be discussed: the port
network, which most likely the successor of the mainport concept. Finally, possible policy implications
of the port network concept will be presented.

                                                    Session FL 06i
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"Critical mass" in multimodal freight transport

SUNDE, O, Molde University College, Norway
As logistics has come to influence business strategies, shippers emphasise the flexibility and frequency
that is offered by road haulage. If other modes of transport (such as rail and sea) are to compete with
road haulage, they must offer flexible and frequent services as well. Flexibility may be obtained by
offering multimodal transport services involving pick up and delivery by truck at each end of the long
(or main) haul. In order to determine the frequency required for a multimodal freight transport service to
be competitive to road haulage, we make use of a simple theoretical economic mode choice model in
which shippers may choose between the two modes of transport. A major finding is that in order to
provide a service that is sufficiently frequent, a multimodal freight transport service must attract a
volume of cargo that exceeds a certain ‘critical mass’. As shippers are expected to substitute modes of
transport gradually rather than instantly, such a service will experience a kind of infancy during which
the volume of cargo will fall below this ‘critical mass’. Due to insufficient volume of cargo during this
infancy, the operator will incur a loss. Such a loss may act as a barrier to entry, preventing it from being
established despite being sustainable in the long run. If multimodal freight transport is welcomed in order to
relieve roads from congestion, this may call for a kind of a public ‘obstetric aid’ or start-up support.

This supports the recommendations from the PACT programme which is to be prolonged in the Marco
Polo programme being recently initiated by the European Commission.

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                                                    Session FL 06ii
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------
Freight transport at any price? Effects of two transport cost scenarios on book and newspaper supply

RUNHAAR, H, TU Delft, The Netherlands
Freight transport is essential in modern societies. Fast, reliable, and relatively cheap transport of goods
allows firms to compete efficiently and effectively in markets that have become increasingly
internationalized and in which ever higher logistical demands are requested. Yet, at the same time freight
transport generates substantial negative effects to society, including noise, environmental pollution, casualties,
and congestion. These costs are typically not paid for by actors that cause them (i.e., carriers and firms that have
their goods transported), but are passed on to society. As substantial growth in freight transport is forecasted,
these negative ‘external’ effects will only increase in magnitude.

The above situation is considered problematic, both from a theoretical economic perspective as well as
from the more general view of public interest. It is felt that the costs related to freight transport outweigh its
benefits. The amount of transport consumed may be efficient to individual firms, but not to society as
a whole. Therefore, increasing efforts can be observed within Europe (both at the level of the
European and on the level of individual Member States) to slow down the growth in freight transport, in
particular transport by road. One of the instruments that is gaining popularity is taxation. From an
economic perspective, this instrument is justified because ‘internalization’ of the external costs would
lead to a more efficient allocation of transport resources, thus raising welfare.

In practice, however, it seems that shipping firms who generate the demand for freight transport- have
become less and less sensitive to transport costs: the logistical organization has become more and more
transport-intensive, due to among others centralization of production and elimination of inventories.
Minimization of logistical costs other than the cost of transport seems to be of primary importance to
shipping firms. This raises the question to what extent transport policies that aim to affect transport
costs will prove to be effective in reducing the growth in freight transport.

In the paper, the effects of two specific transport interventions that directly affect transport costs are
(a) the internalization of marginal external social costs by means of a charge per ton-kilometer, levied on
(b) a very restrictive infrastructure policy, which in combination with an expected growth in both
    passenger and freight transport, will lead to a substantial increase in congestion.

A two-tier approach is employed. One, the impact of the two policy scenarios on the transport sector
is explored. In particular, the effects on ‘generalized transport costs’ are examined, i.e., carrier rates,
transit times, and delivery reliability. The reason is that it appears from the literature that freight transport demand
is affected by these three factors rather than only the direct cost of transport (i.e., carrier rates). For the purpose of
this part research, a Delphi survey among 70 experts in the field of transport was conducted. The survey focused
on road haulage, inland navigation, rail transport, airfreight, short sea shipping, and deep-sea container shipping
from or to the Netherlands. It appeared that carriers are expected to absorb a relatively large part of the initial
negative effects of these policy scenarios by adapting their transport operations (e.g., increase load factors by
acquiring more return cargo, co-operate more with other carriers). This indicates that a more efficient use of
transport equipment is possible. Yet, it is expected that notably road transport will face difficulties in coping with
the two scenarios. Its absorptive capacity proves to be the lowest, which deteriorates its competitive position vis-a-
vis other modes. Yet, a weakened competitive position of road haulage is also expected

Two, the paper examines how shipping firms may respond to the changes in generalized transport
costs, that the Delphi participants expect as a result of the above two policy scenarios. For this
purpose, a so-called stated adaptations survey was conducted among 30 mainly Dutch firms that are
active in the production and distribution of books and newspapers. The sample includes old paper
collectors and wholesalers, paper producers and wholesalers, printers, publishers, distributors, and
book retail organizations. The main response of shippers to the ton-kilometer scenario, in which carrier
rates increase by on average 50 percent, is raising prices; relatively few modifications on the level of
logistical systems are mentioned (e.g., modal shift or allowing higher inventory sizes coupled with FTL
shipments). On average, more adaptations are mentioned related to the management of transport
operations, e.g., a better information exchange with carriers, employment of larger vehicles, or
outsource transport to commercial carriers. This indicates that the effectiveness of taxation as a means
to affect shippers’ logistical decisions that have a transport effect will be limited. In contrast, the
congestion scenario on average yielded more logistical responses. Apparently, the costs related to
transit times and delivery reliability are more important than direct transport costs.

                                                    Session FL 06iii
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A geometry of uncertainty: cost and time in intermodal freight competition

Freight mode choice relies on many factors: cost, time, quality of service… To take this parameters into
account, the economist builds a value of time, he translates in money the service quality level, and then
he calculates a generalised cost which is used in his models. This method is commonly used in
macro-economic models to dispatch traffic between transport modes, in micro-economic models to
explain modal choice. But this method is not always a good tool to explain how a company makes its
choice, because time or service quality are not easy parameters to evaluate. Then what kind of models
can be used in such a situation?

We shall take the example of time in the comparison of intermodal rail-road transport with all road
transport. First, we shall show that time is not only a cost in such a comparison. Second, we give two
ways to integrate time in the profitability comparison between these two modes, using the spatial theory
to build their market areas.

The first method is inspired by observations inside trucking companies. It shows how the intermodal
market area evolves with the required time to deliver goods to the customers (or to collect goods). It
leads to a spatial share of the market, which is very different from that which would be given by a
generalised cost.

The second method fits with situations when time role is uncertain: we don’t know whether time plays in
favour or in disfavour of each mode. Then the proposed method is to look for the loci where this
uncertainty prevents to predict the modal choice; we build the geographical areas where cost plays a
more or less decisive role: in some areas, cost difference is high enough to define which mode will be
used; in other areas, cost difference is not high enough to explain the choice. It is in these cases that the
choice is uncertain and that time (or other supply characteristics) may play the first role. The interest of
this method is to show the places, the geographical shape and expanse of the areas where choice is
uncertain. It is in this areas that transport competition is the strongest.

This presentation takes into account time and cost to examine rail-road competition. It improves the
definition of the intermodal market area.

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                                                     Session FL 07i
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------
Intelligent freight transport systems: integrating traffic management with freight transport

DRUNEN, E C van, ECORYS Transport, The Netherlands
JORNA, R A M, Diepens en Okkema, The Netherlands
Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) has a well-known meaning in passenger transport, especially with
respect to private cars. However, ITS is not a familiar word in the freight domain. Therefore there is a
need to define the role of freight transport within Intelligent Transport Systems. The Thematic Network
THEMIS, an initiative of the European Commission, DG TREN, is exactly aiming at that: contributing
to the establishment of Intelligent Freight Transport Systems. Although THEMIS covers all transport
modes, this paper will focus on Intelligent Freight Transport Systems for road transport.

Integrating traffic information with road freight transport management
The integration of traffic information with freight transport management is a prerequisite for the creation
of intelligent freight transport systems. The most important reason to integrate traffic information with
freight transport management systems is to provide a better Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA). Using
traffic information, the ETA can be kept up to date with changing traffic situations and will therefore
become more reliable. This means better service can be provided to customers, and more efficient use
of resources can be realised.

Taking into account the needs of the freight transport sector
Road traffic information is a by-product of road traffic management. As a result, the focus has always
been on a numerous private cars, not on the relatively few heavy goods vehicles. Thus, the specific user
needs of the road freight transport companies have been largely neglected. However, there is a
growing awareness among freight transport operators, that they should use traffic information to
optimise their fleet planning and to improve customer service. This is a direct result of the increased
level of automation within road freight transport companies (trip planning software, mobile data
communication, internet), which now offers the possibility to integrate (real-time) traffic information with the freight
transport management software.

Therefore time has come to take into account the specific needs of the road freight transport sector with
respect to road traffic information. This paper will provide a (preliminary) overview of the user needs
of the road freight transport sector concerning traffic information. It will map the user requirements to
the available traffic information. And will highlight the potential benefits for the freight transport
companies as well as for society.

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                                                              Session             FL 07ii
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------
Logistics in Europe: main issues and operators' strategies
In the last twenty years logistics in Europe has been marked by significant changes, which have
subsequently affected operators’ behaviours in the market. Such changes derive from three kinds of
factors. Firstly, macroeconomic factors (globalisation, new trade patterns, etc.) act as centralising forces
throughout the world insofar as both manufacturing companies and suppliers of services are
concerned. Secondly transport and logistics legislation both at European and national levels has
undergone a substantial deregulation even though a complete harmonisation, especially in social and
fiscal terms, has not yet been reached. Finally new models of management and distribution are
changing the order of importance of the different critical success factors in the transport and logistics
sector. Supply chain management calls for a deeper involvement of logisticians in forging the
international supply chains; the future of e-business development will see the entry of new competitors
in the market. Both these models, intended as new business models, require strong competencies in
information and communication technologies also on the side of the logistics service provider.

Against this background, the aim of the present contribution is to point out logistics operators’ reactions
in terms of adopted strategic options in order to cope with such changes. By analysing empirical
sources of all types of strategies in the sector adopted by 20 of the main European logistics firms during
in the period 1999-2001 and linking them to industrial economics, a picture of the current competition
in the sector will be depicted.
Specifically, the tendency of Companies to achieve adequate dimensions so as to survive global
competition, as well as the spread of logistics alliances between operators and clients and between
operators themselves, will be highlighted. In addition, the increasing diversification toward logistics
pursued by all kinds of operators (Hauliers, Integrators and National Posts) will be explored and
interpreted in the light of the current competitive situation in the market.

This contribution represents a further step in the study "Perspectives stratégiques et financières des
prestataires logistiques en Europe", conducted by the author and concluded in December 2001, edited
by "Les Echos-Eurostaf" a leading French company in the field of strategic and financial sectoral
studies. The information used for the paper derives from previous research and studies carried out in
the field by European Universities and Consulting firms, interviews personally conducted with top
managers of the main European Logistics Companies and participation to conferences and seminars.

                                                    Session FL 07iii
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------
The economics of carrier liability of intermodal freight transport
BLACK, I, IM Technologies Limited, UK
CHUA, H, IM Technologies Limited, UK
SEIDELMANN, C, Studiengesellschaft fur den kombinierten Verkehr e, Germany
The European Commission Communication on Intermodality and Intermodal Freight Transport
(COM(97) 243) established that the lack of a uniform liability arrangement between modes is an
impediment to the further development of freight intermodalism in the EU. In the mid 1990s an EC
sponsored group of learned experts recommended a non-mandatory uniform liability arrangement as a
means to overcome the costs and bias inherent in a system without uniform liability.

This paper reports on the key findings of an EC sponsored research project into the economic impact
of carrier liability on intermodal freight transport. It aims to provide useful insights into an aspect of
freight transport which is critical to successful and satisfactory freight transport operations but little
understood being mainly confined to legal experts.

Following the introductory section the paper turns to outlining the stakeholders of the freight transport
supply chain, the different carrier liability regimes and their relationships. This is followed by details of a pan
European survey on stakeholder characteristics concerning cargo values, loss and damage levels,
use of insurance and knowledge and experience of carrier liability in section 3. Section 4 details the
friction costs of carrier liability and an accounting framework to quantify estimates of the friction cost of
carrier liability. The final section gives estimates of friction costs of carrier liability of various journeys
and the potential reduction in cost following harmonisation of conditions to facilitate intermodal

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------
                                                     Session FL 07iv
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----
The impact of ICT on transport and logistics: implications for training needs
Changes in the international economic scenario in recent years have made it necessary for both
industrial and service firms to reformulate their strategies, with a strong focus on the resources required
for successful implementation. In this scenario, information and communication technologies (ICT) has a
potentially vital role to play both as a key resource for re-engineering business processes within a
framework of direct connection between suppliers and customers, and as a source of cost optimisation.
There have also been innovations in the logistics and freight transport sector in relation to ICT diffusion.
The implementation of such systems in firms that provide logistical and transport services allows the
real-time exchange of information between supply chain partners, thereby improving planning capability
and customer service. Unlike other industries, the logistics and freight transport industry is lagging
somewhat behind other sectors in ICT diffusion. This situation is to be attributed to a series of both
sector-specific and other factors, such as:
a) traditional resistance to change on the part of transport and logistics operators;
b) the small size of firms that places considerable constraints upon investment in ICT;
c) the relative shortage of user-friendly applications;
d) the diffusion of internal standards on the part of the main firms in the sector whose aim is to protect
company information, preventing its dissemination among customers and suppliers;
e) the insufficient degree of professional skills for using such technologies on the part of staff in such
The latter point is of critical importance insofar as the adoption of ICT is making it increasingly
necessary both to develop new technical skills to use different hardware and new software tools, and to
be able to plan processes of communication so as to allow the optimal use of ICT.

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of ICT on transport and logistics sector and to highlight
how the use of such new technologies is affecting providers’ training needs.

The first part will provide a conceptual framework of the impact of ICT on the transport and logistics
sector. In the second part the state of ICT dissemination in the Italian and Irish transport and logistics
sector will be outlined. In the third part, the impact of ICT on the training needs of transport and
logistics service providers - based on some case studies in both countries - will be discussed. In the
 conclusions, the implications of the foregoing for the development of appropriate training policies will be
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------
                                                     Session FL 08i
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------
Distribution and re-distribution in E-commerce

ENARSSON, L, Vaxjo University, Sweden
The e-commerce has gone through an up-and-down cycle, mainly depending on the problems with
distribution concepts and also with taking back products which not satisfy the customers. After some
years of e-commerce we can establish that the e-commerce success is depending of an effective
distribution system and also of a system which can take back not wanted products (for reuse). This is in
particular distinctly in the so called B2C commerce. This paper is based on two investigations; one
treats the e-commerce distribution systems and the other re-distribution systems. The results indicate
that it is the "old" companies, as IKEA, who are most successful in creating e-commerce distribution
systems, even if they have much more to develop. Hardly any company has developed a re-distribution
system which is satisfactory. This is a field where the transport researchers can develop models for new

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     Session FL 08ii
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------
The impact of E-commerce on transport in Europe

BECKER, J, TNO Inro, The Netherlands
BRUMMELMAN, A, TNO Inro, The Netherlands
DEMKES, R, Advisory Council for Transport, Public Works, The Netherlands
In 1999 and 2000 the attention for e-commerce was mainly triggered by the success of many
Internet-initiatives. From 2000 until today, the attention springs from the downfall of many initiatives.
This has blurred the view on more fundamental questions like:
- What is the true size of e-commerce-related trade?
- Does e-commerce fundamentally change sectors and the way people do business?

Many companies and governmental bodies struggle with these questions, given the amount of
e-commerce-related events and conferences. Also at the policy level, attention is given to the relation
between e-commerce and transport. For example, the OECD and ECMT jointly organised at 5 and 6
June 2001 a seminar on ‘the impact of e-commerce on transport’ with the purpose ‘to analyse the
interaction between e-commerce and transport, and assess the implications for transport of the growth
in e-commerce’. There is a general feeling that policy attention to the consequences of e-commerce is
necessary, but clear data on the direction and impact of e-commerce are lacking.

The purpose of this study was to formulate a basis for transport policy for the European Parliament’s
Committee on Regional Policy, Transport and Tourism on the basis of the most reliable forecasts
possible on the growth of e-commerce induced freight traffic in the medium term. In addition, the study
has generated suggestions to cope with the anticipated increase in the volume of traffic.

For Europe it is important to understand the developments of e-commerce and the impact it has on
Europe as a whole and its economic sectors. On the one hand, it is important to support the
development and adoption of advanced e-commerce solutions that may contribute to the
competitiveness of European enterprises. On the other hand, it is important to mitigate possible negative
consequences for the citizens, the companies and the environment.

The main questions to be answered in this study are the following:
1. To clarify the annual e-commerce-related growth in absolute figures in relation to EU-trade in the
medium term.
2. To quantify the impact of e-commerce on freight transport as regards of the mode of transport and
transport routes.
3. To assess the impact of e-commerce on the use of conventional delivery services and the mode of
4. To put a figure on the avoidance of physical freight transport resulting from dematerialization.

The agenda is quite ambitious for the project. Therefore, the main questions have been broken down to
a limited set of research questions that allow a well-defined and step-wise approach to the different
parts of the problem. In addition, a framework has been developed, which can be used to structure the
field of research. The paper also deals with the challenges faced in the project and a feasibility of
monitoring developments and benchmarking experiences.

E-commerce framework
To sketch a complete picture of the relation between e-commerce and its impact on transport, the
study also takes into account non e-commerce trends. After all: economic, spatial, and technical
progress are very relevant for growth and other developments (such as modal split) of freight transport.
The framework constructed for this study recognises the influence of non e-commerce trends on the
‘actual environment’, which is the existing set of business structures, infrastructures, ICT-networks,
goods and passenger flows, et cetera, at a given, i.e. the present, time. The behaviour of companies and
individuals in this actual environment determines spatial planning, influences traffic and transport and the way
logistical structures are developed.

The research framework has been used as a basis for the analysis of the research questions.
Furthermore, it provides a new structure for new research questions in the field of e-commerce induced

For exercising democratic supervision over the European Commission and sharing with the Council the
power to legislate, the European Parliament must keep abreast with the current developments and
should make its own policy for the near future. The European Parliament can join the developments by
supra-national organisations like the UNCTAD and the OECD, but should also develop its own vision
and course of action in this respect.

This study provides insight in the present facts and figures on E-commerce: the Internet usage, total
E-commerce sales, e-commerce related trade, and dematerialization. In addition to this insight, the
framework helps to understand the impact of E-commerce on the spatial planning, traffic and transport
and the way logistical structures are developed.

On the basis of the results found in this study, the question is "what transport policy measures should be
taken at Community level having regard to existing environmental standards in order to cope with any
anticipated increase in demand for transport services?". This study identifies several policy actions that
the European Parliament may undertake or support.
                                                    Session FL 09i
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------
A variational inequality formulation of the combined dynamic route-choice and ship-type
choice problem in inland shipping

CATALANO, S, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands
LINDVELD, C, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands
In this paper we will assess the impact of an on-ramp meter on the departure-time distribution onto an
urban motorway in Delft that connects a residential area in Delft with the A-13 motorway that links the
Northern and Southern parts of the Randstad.

To do this, we will use a simplified version of an existing departure time model that can model the
trade-off between travel time and departure time for shifts of up 30 minutes from the desired departure
time window. The departure time model is an OGEV model, and is based on research carried out by
third parties.

From the observed on-ramp flows and travel times on the urban motorway, the latent demand profile
can be calculated as has been described by previous authors. Once this profile is known, the departure
time model can be used to predict the departure time shifts due to the ramp-metering scheme.

It is assumed that the ramp-metering scheme will have negligible impact downstream of the ramp meter,
but that it may result in travel time benefits for travellers upstream of the ramp meter. Consequently, the
main effect of the on-ramp meter on travellers from the residential area in Delft will consist of the delay
imposed by the ramp meter.

Therefore the delay caused by the on-ramp meter to the A-13 motorway will be the main factor
affecting any departure time shift. The road authorities plan to activate the ramp meter on the onramp to
the A-13 in the course of this year; if this planning can be realised the predictions can be compared to
the observed effects.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------
                                                     Session FL 09ii
Modelling shipments and ship assignment for inland navigation
BOVENKERK, M, TNO-Inro, The Netherlands
THIJS, R, TNO-Inro, The Netherlands
In The Netherlands inland shipping is the most important modality, measured in ton-kms, for
international good transport destined for North of France, Germany, and the countries beyond. To
support maximum inland navigation growth and infrastructure investment efficiency an evaluating
framework for infrastructure investments is needed, which is the inland navigation model system.

Part of the complexity of the inland navigation model is in deriving the consignment sizes from the macro
economic cargo flow data and next deriving the shiploads from these consignments. It is preferable to have a
descriptive model for this conversion problem such that effects of policies on infrastructure, but also on fleet
composition, shipper locations and shipper volumes can be made visible.

In the paper alternative structures and sub models are investigated and evaluated. The proposed
structure to model the inland navigation traffic conversion problem is a complex structure, which best
approached the market mechanisms. First shipments are extracted, single and multiple part shiploads
are defined and combinations of part shiploads are made resulting in shiploads. These shiploads are
used for the ship and route choice model in which the cheapest ship and route combination is chosen.
More research is needed before this model structure can be widely used.

This model structure could in the future be of interest to other modalities as well. Road and rail good
transport markets have similar characteristics for the traffic modelling problem. The big advantage of the
inland shipping market is the relative good information availability.

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