Canada Metals Report Q4 2011

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Canada Metals Report Q4 2011 Powered By Docstoc
					Canada Metals Report Q4 2011

Published:November 2011
No.Of Pages:49
Price:US $ 530




The scenario in 2011 and going into 2012 is a mixed one for the Canadian metals industry.
While yearon- year (y-o-y) growth was consistent throughout H111, sales began trending
downwards in Q211 with manufacturing and sales of durable goods and primary metals
falling month-on-month (m-o-m), although remaining strong compared to the previous
year. Canadian growth is being assisted by strong exports and an improved business
environment. The country’s metal production has followed suit as it returns to prerecession
levels of industrial output, particularly in crucial metals consuming sectors such as the
domestic car industry. We believe that with the economy getting closer to potential, and
with capacity utilisation being eaten up, and corporate cash and profits still headed higher,
there will be increased incentive to invest.

There are, however, headwinds to domestic consumption, including interest rate hikes,
inflation reducing disposable income, and the potential for house price moderation or even a
downturn. But the underlying fundamentals are still positive, with the labour market
improving and, accordingly, real wages beginning to growth more robustly. The most
significant risk would be a significant slowdown in the US, which could severely undermine
Canadian business confidence, commodity prices and exports, adversely affecting exports of
metals and manufactured goods.

Canadian crude steel output will decline 4.6% to 12.41mn tonnes, despite a 6% rise in
apparent finished steel consumption to 14.9mn tonnes. This is largely due to the continuing
controversial shut-down of US Steel’s Hamilton facility, which is leading to a widening of
Canada’s steel trade deficit. The impact of US Steel’s controversial and ongoing shut-downs
has been offset in part by Essar Steel’s investment in its Algoma facility.

The aluminium industry is set for long-term growth as a result of capacity expansion at Rio
Tinto Alcan’s facilities in Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean and Kitimat which together will cost a
total of US$1bn. BMI believes that a stronger US market should lead to 2.1% growth in
primary aluminium output to just over 3.0mn tonnes in 2011 prompted by 2.5% growth in
exports to 2.65mn tonnes. Over the medium-term, despite capacity expansion growth will
be limited by capacity, with output reaching 3.17mn tonnes by 2015, an increase of 6.8%
over 2010 levels.

Nickel refining has been undermined by the effects of labour disputes on ore mining
activities and 12,200 tonnes of planned finished nickel output was lost due to a shut-down
of a facility operated by Vale due to technical problems. Nickel refining is projected to
increase 25% to 140,000 tonnes in 2011 with a further 19% increase to 167,000 tonnes in
2012. Production is projected to reach 180,000 tonnes by the end of our forecast period. A
significant risk to this forecast comes from doubts over the commercial viability of Vale’s
complex in Thompson with 55,000tpa refining and 60,000tpa smelting capacities.

Canadian zinc production growth in 2011 was undermined by the closure in the previous
year of Xstrata’s BMI anticipates 18.1% growth in Canadian zinc consumption between
2010-15 to 176,000 tonnes as the economy returns to full strength, with the domestic
market consuming 26% of production, up from 22% in 2010.

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Table Of Contents

Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Canada Political SWOT 7
Canada Economic SWOT . 7
Global Market Overview – Steel Forecast .. 8
Table: BMI’s Steel Forecast . 8
Table: Steel Price Data . 9
Commodities Forecast – Metals Update .. 14
Gold .. 14
Copper .. 14
Aluminium... 15
Lead .. 16
Nickel 17
Tin. 17
Zinc ... 18
Forecast Scenario . 20
Steel .. 21
Table: Canada’s Steel Industry, 2008-2015 (‘000 tonnes unless stated) 22
Aluminium... 23
Table: Canadian Smelters’ Capacity And Production, 2010-2014 .. 25
Nickel 26
Zinc ... 28
Macroeconomic Activity . 29
Table: Canada – Contribution To Real CAD GDP Growth By Segment, 2008-2015
(percentage points) ... 31
Competitive Landscape .. 32
Government Policy ... 34
Trade Relations With The US 35
Company Profiles .. 36
ArcelorMittal Dofasco 36
Rio Tinto Alcan . 37
US Steel Canada ... 38
Global Assumptions, Q411... 39
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 .. 40
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ... 40
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) ... 41
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) 41
Developed States ... 42
Table: Developed States’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 42
Emerging Markets 43
Table: Emerging Markets’ Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) . 44
Country Snapshot: Canada Demographic Data 45
Section 1: Population 45
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 45
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 46
Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 46
Table: Education, 2000-2003 ... 46
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 . 46
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 47
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ... 47
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ... 47
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 .. 48
BMI Methodology .. 49
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 49
Cross Checks .. 49

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DOCUMENT INFO
Description: The scenario in 2011 and going into 2012 is a mixed one for the Canadian metals industry. While yearon- year (y-o-y) growth was consistent throughout H111, sales began trending downwards in Q211 with manufacturing and sales of durable goods and primary metals falling month-on-month (m-o-m), although remaining strong compared to the previous year.