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Population by uY1cCm1

VIEWS: 5 PAGES: 45

									         Population

          Sources:
   The World Food Problem
     Leathers and Foster, 2004
   World Hunger 12 Myths
  Lappe Collins and Rossett, 1998
         Hesketh et al.,
New England J. Med 353: 1171-1176
           Wikipedia


                                    http://www.lastfirst.net/images/product/R004548.jpg
Thomas Malthus
       • 1798:    Essay on the Principle
         of Population as it Affects the
         Future Improvement of Society
          – Population growth tends
             to outstrip the means of
             subsistence
          – Food increases
             arithmetically while
             population increases
             geometrically
          – The poor can be kept alive
             by charity, but since they
             would then propagate,
             this is cruelty in disguise.
Paul Ehrlich
      • 1968: The Population
        Bomb

      • ―The battle to feed all of
        humanity is over.
      • In the 1970s the world
        will undergo famines—
      • Hundreds of millions of
        people are going to starve
        to death‖
World Population
                                                 World Population




http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/images/final-images/g-pop-growth-chart-map-sm.gif
                 Human Population Density




http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/images/final-images/life-expectancy-
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Demographic Transition
               • First, high birth
                 rates and high
                 death rates
               • Then, improved
                 living standards,
                 health cause death
                 rates to drop
               • Finally, low birth
                 rates match low
                 death rates
Demographic Transition
           • 1750-1950: Occurred in
             developed countries
           • 1950: Began to see death
             rates drop in developing
             countries
           • 2050: Projected
             completion of transition
Demographic Transition

                • Example: U.S.
                 History
                  – When agrarian
                    society, people
                    had many kids
                     • Source of
                       security, labor
Demographic Transition
               • Example: U.S.
                 History
                 – When became
                   industrial, fewer
                   kids/family
                     • Lowered infant
                       mortality
                     • No need to rely on
                       children’s labor
                     • More opportunities
                       for women
                     • Happened without
                       birth control
Global Fertility
              • 1950’s:   5
                children/woman
              • 1970’s: 4
                children/woman
              • 1990’s: 2.8
                children/woman
              • Replacement: 2.1
                children/woman
Global Population
         • Population growth rate is
           slowing down and will
           eventually stop
         • Dip in 1960 due to 30
           million deaths in China
            – Great Leap Forward
              Famine
       World Population Projection
• Estimated to peak at 11 billion in 2200
World Population Growth
                      AIDS
                      • 40 million people infected
                        with HIV
                         – Many will die of AIDS
                      • Will not greatly impact
                        global population growth
                      • Will Impact some countries
                      • Losses by 2020:
                         – Uganda 45%
                         – Rwanda 35%
                         – Malawi 30%
Malawi AIDS orphans
Global HIV
Food Production per Capita
             • Food Production per
               capita is rising
               worldwide
                – But falling in Africa
             • Food production is
               keeping up with
               population
                – Otherwise food prices
                  would have risen
                – Food prices have dropped
Food Production in Sub-Saharan
           Africa

               • Food Production in
                 Sub Saharan Africa
                 not keeping up with
                 population
Per Capita Production of
 Calories, Fat, Protein
      Progressivist View
               • Things are good and getting
                 better:
                  –   Worldwide standard of living
                  –   Education
                  –   Health
                  –   Trade
               • People are an asset.
               • Population causes shortages
                 which raise prices,
                  – stimulating entrepreneurs to
                    satisfy the shortages.
               • We end up better off as a
Julian Simon     result.
Progressivist View

         • Two important
           indicators of progress
           and improvement in
           life are
           – Decreased Infant
             Mortality
           – Increased Life
             Expectancy
                                                Life Expectancy




http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/images/final-images/life-expectancy-map.gif
                 Revisionist View
                           • Adoption and spread of agriculture
                             have trapped humanity in a spiral of
                              – Population growth
                              – Ecological destruction
                              – Social tyranny.
                           • The problem stems from the
                             anti-ecological culture (religion)
                             of agricultural societies
                              – humans are above and not part of
                                nature (global ecosystem)
                              – and therefore can destroy it at will.
Civilization is based on
Agriculture
Daniel Quinn
 • 1992: Ishmael
    – Although population is 5.5 billion, we
      produce enough food for 6.0 billion even
      though millions are starving
    – Because we produce enough food for 6
      billion, in 3 or 4 years there will be 6
      billion people.
    – Then, even though millions are starving,
      we will produce enough for 6.5 billion.
    – Thus in another 3-4 years there will be
      6.5 billion
    – To halt this process, must face the fact
      that increasing food production doesn’t
      feed the hungry, it only fuels the
      population explosion.
                                    Social Equity View
                                                                        • Problems of
                                                                          – poverty
                                                                          – overpopulation
                                                                          – ecological destruction
                                                                        • Are due to
                                                                          – inequity of wealth
                                                                          – unfairness of economic
                                                                            and social systems

     Frances Moore
     Lappe, Food First
http://www.mediathatmattersfest.org/mtm05/img/frances_moore_lappe.jpg
   If the world were 100 people
                             (2005)

                                   • 51 male
                                      – 49 female
                                   • 60 Asians,
                                      –   14 Africans,
                                      –   12 Europeans,
                                      –   8 Latin Americans,
                                      –   5 from USA and Canada
                                      –   1 from the South Pacific
                                   • 82 nonwhite
                                      – 18 white
                                   • 67 non-Christian
                                      – 33 be Christian
(Source: Family Care Foundation)
    If the world were 100 people
                              (2005)

                                   • 80 live in substandard
                                     housing
                                   • 67 unable to read
                                   • 50 malnourished
                                       – 1 dying of starvation
                                   • 33 without access to safe
                                     water supply
                                   • 39 lack access to improved
                                     sanitation
                                   • 24 have no electricity
                                       – Most of the 76 with electricity
                                         use it only for light at night
(Source: Family Care Foundation)
    If the world were 100 people
                              (2005)

                                   •   7 have access to the internet
                                   •   1 has a college education
                                   •   1 has HIV
                                   •   2 near birth
                                       – 1 near death
                                   • 5 control 32% of the entire
                                       world’s wealth
                                       – All 5 U.S. citizens
                                   • 33 attempt to live on 3% of
                                       global income
(Source: Family Care Foundation)
  Both hunger and high fertility
          occur when:
                    • Poverty is extreme and
                        widespread
                    •   Society denies security and
                        opportunity to people
                    •   Infant mortality is high
                    •   Most people can’t get land,
                        jobs, education, health care, old
                        age security
                    •   Few opportunities for women
                        outside of home

Bangladesh mother
Children

      • Labor force
      • Chance for a job in city
      • Security
           – major investment
           – rational choice
Women’s Education

         • Powerful predictor of
           lower fertility
         • Reflects opportunity in
           society
Male Poverty


      • Low self-esteem
      • Dominate women and
        children
      • Thus more children
                Examples
                 • Sri Lanka:
                    – lower price rice
                        • led to population decline
                 • Cuba:
                    – low prices for food and health care
                        • reduced population rate from 4.7 to 1.6
                 • Kerala, India:
                    – lower price rice, kerosene
                        • 1/3 birth rate of average in India
                        • Literacy for women is 2.5 times
                          average in India

Kerala, India
                 Family Planning
                     • Birth Control is responsible for only 15-
                       20% total fertility decline
                        – Thus population growth cannot be
                          brought down simply by family planning
                          or contraception
                        – but it can speed the decline
                     • Contraceptive use in Developing World
                       has increased
                        – 9% in 1960
                        – 60% in late 1990s
IUD: Intra Uterine   • Demographic Transition requires
Device                 improved
                        – Health
                        – Social Security
                        – Education
               Sterilization
                      • Encouraged by Western
                        donors for developing
                        countries
                         – Quotas are set
                         – Incentives are used
                             • Cash, roads, transportation,
                               latrines
                             • For hungry, choices are
                               limited
                      • 1/3 of married women in
                        India and China are sterilized

Indian woman
Puerto Rico: La Operacion
             • U. S. seized in 1898
             • Sugar companies set up vast
                 plantations
             •   Small farmers evicted
             •   By 1925, 2% of population
                 owned 80% of land, 70% of
                 population landless’
             •   Unemployment termed
                 ―overpopulation‖ by U.S.
             •   By 1940’s light
                 manufacturing moved in
                 attracted to cheap labor, low
                 taxes
Puerto Rico: La Operacion
        • Young women were key to labor force
        • Problem was pregnancy
        • Result: massive sterilization program
        • Women coerced into sterilization
          without being told it was irreversible
        • By 1968, 1/3 of women childbearing
          age were sterilized.
        • Emigration and sterilization resulted in
          population drop with no increase in
          standard of living.
Bangladesh
     • Intensive Family Planning in
       Matlab region
     • Contraceptive use doubled
     • Resulted in reduced birth rate
     • Cost was very high:
       $120/birth averted
        – This is 120% of per capita
          gross domestic product
        – Not replicable on a national
          scale
                                                                     China
                                                                    • 1950s, 60s Under Mao
                                                                      – children encouraged
                                                                      – Fertility rate: 5.9 children/woman
                                                                    • 1970-1979 new policy to cope
                                                                      with overpopulation
                                                                      – ―one is good, 2 is ok, 3 is too many‖
                                                                      – ―late, long, few‖
                                                                         • Have fewer children later
                                                                         • greater spacing between
                                                                         • Fertility dropped steeply to 2.9
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/02/china_party_con
gress/china_ruling_party/key_people_events/html/default.stm
Fertility decline in China
China One Child Policy
          • 1979 ―one child‖ policy enacted
             – For urban areas
          • Material benefits
             – if have 1 child
          • Social & official pressure
             – If have more than 1 child
          • 71% Chinese are rural
             – Multiple children are common
          • Fertility rate has declined
             – But also declined in other Asian
               countries without coersion
          • Human rights violation?
Birth Control Methods in China
Skewed sex ratio
        • Sex ratio at birth (2000)
           – 117:100 male:female
              • Maternal Hepatitus B may
                  account for much of the skewing
        • Boys preferred
           – Men care for parents in old age
           – Women join husband’s family
              • Care for husband’s parents
        • Selective abortion of girls
           – Use ultrasound to determine sex
           – If first child is a girl, want second
             to be a boy
           – Illegal but suspected
        • Female infanticide suspected
           – before ultrasound

								
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