Beyond Moore’s Law
(and the web):
What’s next?
Nets Everywhere
http://research.microsoft.com/~gbell/pubs.htm
Gordon Bell
Bay Area Research Center
Microsoft Corporation
Copyright Gordon Bell
Outline… pervasive computing from in
body to world scale
Technology basis
On, in, and around body…
Mobility: essential for people, phone build out
Storing everything you’ve ever…
Home, personal, and media stores
Scalable systems: what is central vs personal?
.net: what does it mean?
– Ease of building reliable, scalable, secure,
transaction & streaming apps
– .bCentral… creating on-line presence
Copyright Gordon Bell
Some ranked, important technology
Fortune Network Computing
Bluetooth 802.11b
Voice control of xx Bluetooth
XML Broadband
Peer-to-peer as in Directory Services
Napster or Gnutella Voice over IP
IPv6
Wave Div. Multiplex
SAN & Fiber Chan.
ASP
Copyright Gordon Bell
QOS
Technologies
Copyright Gordon Bell
Moore’s Law
Performance/Price doubles every 18
months
100x per decade
Progress in next 18 months
= ALL previous progress
– New storage = sum of all past storage
– New processing = sum of past processing.
E. coli double ever 20 minutes!
Copyright Gordon Bell
15 years ago
Desktop-desktop @ 1 gbps
http://research.
microsoft.com/
~gray/papers/
Win2K_1Gbps.doc
Copyright Gordon Bell
500 mips System On A Chip
for 10$
486 now 7$
233 MHz ARM for 10$ system on a chip
http://www.cirrus.com/news/products99/news-product14.html
AMD/Celeron 266 ~ 30$
In 5 years, today’s leading edge will be
– System on chip (cpu, cache, mem ctlr,
multiple IO)
– Low cost
– Low-power
– Have integrated IO
Copyright Gordon Bell
High end is 5 BIPS cpus
Ubiquitous 10 GBps SANs
in 5 years
1Gbps Ethernet are reality now.
– Also FiberChannel ,MyriNet, GigaNet,
ServerNet,, ATM,…
10 Gbps x4 WDM deployed now (OC192)1 GBps
– 3 Tbps WDM working in lab
In 5 years, expect 10x,
progress is astonishing
Gilder’s law: 120 MBps
Bandwidth grows 3x/year (1Gbps)
http://www.forbes.com/asap/97/0407/090.htm
80 MBps
Copyright Gordon Bell
40 MBps
20 Mbsp
5 MBps
Bell’s Evolution Of
Computer Classes
Technology enables two evolutionary paths:
1. constant performance, decreasing cost
2. constant price, increasing performance
Log price
Mainframes (central)
Mini
WSs
PCs (personals)
Handheld…
Time Appliances
1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .8
1.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62
Platform evolution:
What do they do that’s useful?
How do they communicate?
Copyright Gordon Bell
Everything cyberizable will be
in Cyberspace and covered by
a hierarchy of computers!
Body
Continent Region/ Cars…
Intranet phys. nets
Home…
Campus buildings
World Fractal Cyberspace: a network
of … networks of … platforms
Cyberspace: one, two or three
networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020
Data
Telephony
Television
Or will we just
have gateways?Bell
Copyright Gordon
In a decade we can/will have:
more powerful personal computers
– processing 10-100x
– 4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper
– Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays
– low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use
adequate networking????
– ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs
– Competitive wireless networking
One chip, networked platforms including light
bulbs, cameras everywhere, etc.
Several well-defined platforms that compete with
the PC for mind (time) and market share
watch, pocket, body implant, home
Inevitable, continued cyberization… the
challenge… interfacing platforms and people.
IP On Everything
Copyright Gordon Bell
In body, on body, and around
body… how do they evolve?
Copyright Gordon Bell
Your
husband
just died,
… here’s
his black
box
Copyright Gordon Bell
M
e
d
r
o
n
I
c
Copyright Gordon Bell
Audio, pix, T, P, ECG,
location, physiological
parameters…
1 GB
Copyright Gordon Bell
1976: 6 oz. Watch,
manual size > watch size
Copyright Gordon Bell
Casio
GPS
Watch
Copyright Gordon Bell
Steve Mann
in
Cyberspace
MIT c1995
Copyright Gordon Bell
Wearable PC
c2000
Copyright Gordon Bell
Copyright Gordon Bell
The mobile network:
key to personal use
Copyright Gordon Bell
Wirelessness and mobility…
MMDS & LMDS… very likely non-starters
(bits will come via our installed Cu & new fiber)
The crowded 2.4 GHz band
– Portable phones: the first, noisy settlers
– 802.11b (11 Mbit Ethernet LAN) homesteading
– HomeRF (Intel’s misguided effort at a home LAN)
– Bluetooth… see the new world. How can 2,000
companies be wrong?
– 802.11a 50 Mbps LAN (TBD)
GSM & CDMA 2&3 G services…
– Bets as the next Internet wave
Copyright Gordon Bell
Sony
Personal IT
Television
•10” Touch screen
•802.11b connect
•TV
•Internet connect
•Picture frame
•32cm x 20cm
•1.5 Kg Copyright Gordon Bell
The evolution of UMTS
2.0 wireless data 2Mbps
standards…
0.8 good news.
0.4 EDGE
Bad news… 384kbps
0.2 too many, GPRS
0.1 they lie! 115kbps
HSCSD
Circuit data 57.6kbps
20%
– users get more memory than predicted
Single user systems didn’t come down
as fast, unless you consider PDAs Bell
Copyright Gordon
VAX ran out of address bits!
Was Digital a Victim of
Innovator’s Dilemma?
Absolutely NOT!
Otherwise HP, IBM would have failed
and SUN wouldn’t have replaced DEC
as the minicomputer supplier.
IBM AS400 (mini), the most profitable
computer every built
Miss- understanding the industry
Destroying its channels
Out of control… billion buck boners
Copyright Gordon Bell