Data mining Facebook affinities
(advice from a game developer)
Nick Berry M.Eng, ARAeS, CIPP
President - DataGenetics
Just how big is it?
FaceBook Worldwide Registrations
600 580
Year End
Registrations
(MM)
500
400
350
300
200
100
100
50
0 1 5.5 12
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Just how big is FaceBook?
6.8 billion people on the planet
2.0 billion people connected to the internet
600 million registered facebook accounts
30% of the connected World already has a Facebook account!
If facebook were a country …
#1 China
#2 India
#3 facebook
… it would the 3rd largest in the World.
What is the most popular Windows
application of all time?
Peak Population
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
100000
50000
0
Dec-98
Apr-99
Aug-99
Dec-99
Apr-00
Aug-00
Dec-00
Apr-01
Aug-01
Dec-01
Apr-02
Aug-02
Dec-02
Apr-03
Aug-03
Dec-03
Apr-04
Aug-04
Dec-04
Apr-05
Aug-05
Dec-05
Apr-06
Aug-06
Dec-06
Apr-07
Aug-07
decline.
Dec-07
Apr-08
as a gaming
Aug-08
portals starts to
Dec-08
game-only based
Apr-09
Effect of facebook on traditional Casual Gaming web sites
As facebook grows
platform, traditional
Aug-09
Dec-09
Apr-10
People love to play games!
• Decline in traditional web portals is not a decline in people playing games.
• People are getting their gaming entertainment through other platforms.
• Put a device in front of someone and they will want to play a game on it!
• Over half of facebook users go there for “entertainment”.
Worldwide Registrations – Social Networks
Xanga
MyHeritage
Last.fm
Viadeo
WeeWorld
Flickr
Odnoklassniki
Classmates.com
MyLife
Flixster
Netlog
Badoo
Tagged
LinkedIn
Twitter
hi5
Vkontakte
Friendster
Orkut
Bebo
MySpace
Habbo
Qzone
Facebook
0 100,000,000 200,000,000 300,000,000 400,000,000 500,000,000 600,000,000
facebook gaming is big business
“Disney Buys Playdom in $763
Million Deal”
“EA Buys Playfish For $300 Million,
Plus a $100 Million Earnout.”
“Zynga Issues Shares at a $6 Billion Valuation”
Example of top facebook Game
Peaked at 84 MM Monthly Active Users (MAU).
32 MM distinct people used the application at
least once a day (DAU).
Close to 40% of all their users visit the
application every single day!
Farmville - MAU
Café World - MAU
Café World - DAU
Café World - Engagement
Where in the World?
Top 25 countries on facebook
Top 25 countries account for 79% of all FaceBook registered accounts. After Venezuela, no country accounts for more than 1%.
Gender breakdown of FaceBook users Worldwide
Male dominant Female dominant
India 70.7% male Indonesia 59.5% male UK 48.3% male USA 44.3% male
Demographics
13
facebook Demographics
Male Female
AGE
65+
facebook Demographics
Many users of
college age.
In USA large
number of members
over 65
Similar Countries … Similar Profiles
Similar Countries … Similar Profiles
Different Countries … Different Profiles
Games and Interests
Jay Leno vs. Conan
Quiz Time – Guess the movie
Answer: Twilight™
Comparing Demographic “Genes”
38.41% correlation
Comparing Demographic “Genes”
80.89% correlation
Cross correlation
between brands
Bejeweled
Blitz Affinity
What are
fans of glee
on facebook
interested in?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
50%
Sims
Monopoly
Pet Society
Happy Pets
Tetris
Uno
Wii
Nintendo DS
Country Story
Happy Aquarium
Guitar Hero
Restaurant City
Super Mario Bros
Rock Band
Petville
Sorority Life
Doodle Jump
Fishville
Civilization
Pokemon
Zoo World
Roller Coaster Kingdom
Pillow Fight
Millionaire City
Wii Fit
Yoville
TextTwist
Happy Island
Cityville
Mind Jolt Games
Barn Buddy
Cafe World
Settlers of Catan
Collapse!
Vampire Wars
Farmville
Affinity for Games
Scrabble
Treasure Isle
World of Warcraft
Fish World
Texas Holdem Poker
Jigsaw Puzzles
Mafia Wars
Chess
Castle Age
Halo
Farm Town
Island Paradise
Mobsters 2 - Vendetta
Bejeweled Blitz
PS3
Xbox 360
Warstorm
Mahjong Dimensions
0%
100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
60%
70%
80%
90%
50%
Jersey Shore
American Idol
MTV
SpongeBob
Americas Next Top Model
Saturday Night Live
Scrubs
How I met your Mother
Lost
The Office
Heroes
Family Guy
Ugly Betty
Dr Who
CSI
The Bachelor
Simpsons
Desperate Housewives
NCIS
Ghost Whisperer
Sex and the City
Mythbusters
TV Shows
Big Bang Theory
Two and a Half Men
Criminal Minds
Colbert
Law and Order
Conan oBrien
Ellen Degenerous
South Park
Jay Leno
Biggest Loser
Star Trek
Martha Stewart
Medium
Oprah Winfrey Show
Top Gear
Battlestar Galactica
Howard Stern
100%
Music
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Taylor Lady Gaga Katy Perry Britney Shakira Justin Avril Rihanna Black Eyed Michael Frank Red Hot Elvis Barry
Swift Spears Bieber Lavigne Peas Jackson Sinatra Chili Manilow
Peppers
Drinks, Fast Food and Footwear
100% 100% 100%
90% 90% 90%
80% 80% 80%
70% 70% 70%
60% 60% 60%
50% 50% 50%
40% 40% 40%
30% 30% 30%
20% 20% 20%
10% 10% 10%
0% 0% 0%
Red Bull
Pepsi
Coca-Cola
Starbucks
McDonalds
Pizza Hut
Dunkin Donuts
Taco Bell
Dairy Queen
Nike
Puma
Reebok
Converse
Crocs
Adidas
10%
20%
30%
40%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0%
50%
60%
Makeup
Fashion
Soccer
Snowboarding
Skiing
Baking
Jogging
Fishing
Yoga
Scuba Diving
Knitting
Martial Arts
Golf
NASCAR
Gardening
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0%
100%
Horses
Cats
Dogs
Hobbies, Animals and Misc.
10%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
20%
0%
iTunes
Twitter
Foursquare
Investing
Cigars
Micro transactions
Sorority Life, % users who spend by age
Source: “Rules to Monetize By …”, Playdom 2010
Are you targeting your game to the paying audience?
O
Even if this game had 5x the
traffic, it would not generate
$
the same revenue
Would you like to have the largest game on
facebook, or the most profitable?
Micro-transaction types
Bling Accelerators Power-ups
- Avatars Kill 10 more Orcs Pay to get 10 gold
- Fashion coins to get +10%
- Accessories = or = attack bonus for 12
hours
Things that do not adjust Pay 10 gold coins
the balance of the game
+10%
Time
Money
The economic beauty of micro-transactions
Price
The “Tall” Tail …
$19.95
$6.95 The Long Tail …
Volume
Big brands are starting to get it
MIT research
• When playing games, people are at 95-99%
“focused attention”
(As measured by pupil dilation, skin resistance, pulse, movement,
breathing, brain activity …)
• This blows away all other media
• With just 15 seconds exposure to a brand, there
is >80% unaided recall.
Sponsors can receive “Halo” effect by having their brands
associated with success screens and level completion events.
Pitching to potential Sponsors
Honeymoon period for brand owners with fans!
• 43% of fans visit facebook several times a day.
• 50% of fans come to facebook for entertainment.
• 92% say that being a fan has a positive impact in recommending to friends.
• 52% recommend others to follow the brand.
• 84% of fans consume (regularly/ocassionally) the brand.
• There is no disconnect between brands followed on facebook and regular consumers.
• An average of 9 brands are followed by users.
Source: DDB, October 2010
Advice to Social Game Developers
You’re a Service not a Product
Measure Everything!
Analytics is now just as important as game design!
A/B Testing
It’s not just for adverts!
Use tools. Measure baseline.
Tweak, then measure again.
Denominators are large, so even minor changes can
result in $$.
It’s all about the “tastes of the fish, not the tastes of the
fisherman”.
Look at everything: prices, tooltips, position, offers …
Play or Join
We’re now on the second generation of Social Games
Generation #1 – Build it, and throw it live immediately.
Fix and modify it live. Those days are over!
Generation #2 – Get it mechanics reasonably polished before general release.
“You don’t get a second chance to make a first impression”
Today’s early adopters of new games …
… Virally introduce more people to your game
… Typically spend more over lifetime
The End
Nick@DataGenetics.com