The Future of
Homeland Security
William L. Waugh, Jr.
Andrew Young School of Policy Studies
Georgia State University
FEMA Higher Education Conference
Emmitsburg, MD, June 7-9, 2005
Homeland Security
DHS was created November 25, 2003 with the signing
of the Homeland Security Act of 2002
DHS combined 22 federal agencies/programs with
roughly 170,000 employees (with 25,000-30,000
federal passenger screeners added in 2004)
Direct response to September 2001 attacks
Foci on security of civil aviation and protection of US
borders – the major vulnerabilities revealed on 9-11-01
Homeland Security, prior to DHS, was a policy arena
characterized by a competition between DOD and DOJ
Components of
Homeland Security
US Department of Agriculture
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
Plum Island Animal Disease Center
US Department of Commerce
Critical Infrastructure Assurance Office
US Department of Defense
National Biological Warfare Defense Analysis
Center
National Communications System
Components of
Homeland Security
US Department of Energy
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Nuclear Incident Response Team
National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center
US Department of Health and Human Services
Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear
Response Assets
Strategic National Stockpile
National Disaster Medical System
Civilian Biodefense Research Programs
Components of
Homeland Security
US Department of Justice
Immigration and Naturalization Service
Office of Domestic Preparedness (FY03
FEMA)
National Infrastructure Protection Center (FBI)
National Domestic Preparedness Office (FBI)
US Department of Transportation
US Coast Guard
Transportation Security Agency
Components of
Homeland Security
US Department of the Treasury
Customs Service
Secret Service
Federal Emergency Management Agency
Government Services Administration
Federal Protective Service
Federal Computer Incident Response Center
DHS Manpower in 2003
USCG – 43,639 employees
TSA – 41,300/70,000 employees
INS/Border Patrol – 39,459 employees
Customs Service – 21,743 employees
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service –
8,620 employees
Secret Service – 6,111 employees
FEMA – 5,135 employees (2.5-3% of DHS
total)
DHS Mission
We will lead the unified national effort to
secure America. We will prevent and
deter terrorist attacks and protect against
and respond to threats and hazards to
the nation. We will ensure safe and
secure borders, welcome lawful
immigrants and visitors, and promote the
free-flow of commerce.
Expected Strengths
Some very successful programs – but success
does not always mean survival when
administrations change
Strong working relationships with state and
local counterparts in some agencies
Strong working relationships with private and
nonprofit partners in some agencies
Increasing transparency and openness in
working with the public and with state and local
officials
Expected Obstacles
Intra-organizational problems – integration of
22 agencies/programs – military, law
enforcement, agriculture, biomedicine, disaster
relief, insurance, fire service, etc.
Inter-organizational problems – coordination
with the estimated 100 agencies in 12
departments outside of DHS involved in
Homeland Security
Political problems due to turf battles among the
88 separate Congressional committees having
oversight
Expected Obstacles
Mission problems – reconciling DHS‟ non-
terrorism related missions – especially
insurance and disaster recovery missions
Shared responsibility problems – nation‟s
intelligence capabilities, namely the CIA and
FBI, not part of DHS, but critical to security
Agency administrative problems - Uncertainties
concerning “problem” agencies, especially
Border Patrol, INS, and Customs Service
Civil Service-related administrative problems –
e.g., demographic “bubble”
Intra-Organizational
Problems
Cultural conflicts, although some components
are very small offices or labs
Domination of department by largest agencies
- security agencies
Domination of DHS core values by politically
influential agencies – Fire Service and
NIMS/ICS, USCG and strategic doctrine,
Homeland Security Council and strategic
priorities
Political Problems
Fragmentation of Congressional Homeland
Security oversight – but consolidation
recommended by 9-11 Commission
Increasing conflict over DHS‟ lack of
accountability for performance – OMB report &
Congressional demands for standards – NFPA
1600 and EMAP
Increasing conflict over DHS‟ lack of
responsiveness to Congressional committees,
GAO, and CRS
Mission Problems
Declining public support for the Iraq War – the
ambiguous “War on Terrorism”
Decreasing private sector willingness to invest
in security
Increasing conflicts with state and local
counterparts over priorities, funding, etc.
Increasing questions concerning capabilities to
do non-counter-terrorism missions – e.g., the
2004 Florida hurricane response
Agency-Administrative
Problems
Consolidation of INS, Customs, and
Border Security – uncertain effectiveness
of new structures and continuing
intercultural conflicts
Personnel turnover problems –
retirements, transfers, poor morale – the
civil service demographic “bubble”
Civil service management problems –
recruitment, retention, morale
Issues to Be Resolved
How to expand from a prevention approach to
an all-hazards approach – NRP controversy
How to expand focus from counter-terrorism to
dealing with other threats to life and property
How to develop mitigation programs for
terrorism as well as for natural and
technological hazards
How to transition from prevention to mitigation,
response, and recovery functions when attacks
cannot be prevented
Issues to Be Resolved
How to improve intra-organizational and inter-
organizational information sharing
How to resolve turf and culture battles to coordinate
national efforts - TOPOFF problems
How to build state and local capabilities to respond to
terrorist and non-terrorist threats
How to involve nongovernmental organizations and
volunteers – the traditional disaster system resources –
in Homeland Security – the Citizens Corps controversy
How to leverage private sector resources for national
Homeland Security efforts, including how to get the
private sector to protect itself
What Is the Future of
Homeland Security?
The longer the US goes without a major terrorist attack
the quicker the perception of the terrorist threat will
dissipate – the policy window will close
Major natural disasters will force a change in the policy
agenda – public attention and funding will follow
Homeland Security has to mean more than counter-
terrorism if DHS is to thrive
What Is the Future of
Homeland Security?
Organizational problems within DHS will persist
due to:
Cultural incompatibilities
Integration issues – from patches and
badges to hierarchy and openness
Inflexibility due to centralization of decision
and administrative processes
Increased competition for budgets - the
„gun toters‟ vs the rest – size matters
Personnel turnover – retirements and flight
of senior personnel – “brain drain”
What Is the Future of
Homeland Security?
Political problems will persist
Conflicts with state and local officials over
priorities – the old Civil Defense
problem
Mission failures – problems addressing
natural disasters and other
secondary missions
Demands for greater accountability and for
reasonable performance standards
Total US Casualties, 1993-2003
Year Dead Wounded Major Attack
1993 7 1004 1st WTC attack
1994 6 5
1995 10 60
1996 25 510 Khobar Barracks
1997 6 21
1998 12 11 Embassy bombs
1999 6 6
2000 23 47 USS Cole bomb
2001 2689 90 WTC/Pentagon
2002 26 35 Afghanistan war
2003 35 29 Iraq war (?)
Competing Issues
2004 Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne
Over $1.27 billion in federal and state disaster
assistance – billions more in insured and uninsured
losses
869,929 registered for disaster assistance
High political costs of failure
What happens with the next 8.0+ earthquake centered
in major urban area, Force 5 hurricane in a major
metropolitan area, the next major flu pandemic, etc.
Competing Issues
In 2001, 2689 Americans killed in terrorist attacks
(CDC MMWR number is 2922)
33,396 killed in vehicle accidents
30,622 suicides
11,671 homicides involving firearms
3281 drowned
An estimated 400,000 died from tobacco-
related causes
Predictions
Secret Service will escape DHS
Border security roles will continue to
consolidate – but personnel turnover will
become a critical issue
Airport passenger screeners will be privatized
again – regardless of effectiveness – to shift
costs, to reduce the size of DHS, and to
appease airline and airport interests
All-hazards approach will be adopted – really
adopted – because it is more flexible and more
cost-effective than current approach
Predictions
The organizational culture of DHS‟ central
structures will become more focused on
coordinative role – simply because the
command role is ineffective
“Homeland security” will come to mean more
than counter-terrorism
DHS‟ natural and technological disaster roles
will become more insulated from counter-
terrorism roles because the federal
government is not the lead for non-terrorist
hazards and disasters
Total US Casualties, 1993-2003
Year Dead Wounded Major Attack
1993 7 1004 1st WTC attack
1994 6 5
1995 10 60
1996 25 510 Khobar Barracks
1997 6 21
1998 12 11 Embassy bombs
1999 6 6
2000 23 47 USS Cole bomb
2001 2689 90 WTC/Pentagon
2002 26 35 Afghanistan war
2003 35 29 Iraq war (?)