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CHANGING PEOPLE’S
READINESS BEHAVIOR
PUBLIC EDUCATION & INFORMATION RESEARCH FINDINGS
& EVIDENCE-BASED APPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE
(REV 12B)
PRIMARY AUTHORS
Dennis S. Mileti
– Professor Emeritus
– University of Colorado at Boulder
Erica Kuligowski
– Research Associate
– University of Colorado at Boulder
2
CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS
Linda B. Bourque, Professor
– University of California at Los Angeles
Megumi Kano, Research Associate
– University of California at Los Angeles
Michele M. Wood, Research Associate
– University of California at Los Angeles
3
DISCLAIMER
Supported by:
U.S. Department of Homeland Security Grant Number
N00140510629, START Center, University of Maryland at
College Park
However:
Opinions, findings, & conclusions are the authors and do not
necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of
Homeland Security
4
PURPOSE
Review:
– Research findings accumulated to date
Present:
– Evidence-based applications for practice
Regarding:
– The question…….
FUNDAMENTAL QUESTION
HOW DO YOU HELP PEOPLE TO:
STOP...
LISTEN…
& GET READY…
6
FOR DISASTERS
They Think Won’t Really Happen
And if They Do, Happen to Other
People not Them
7
DIFFERENT DISASTERS
AGENTS
Societal, e.g., terrorism
Natural, e.g., earthquake
Technological, e.g., power plants
Biological, e.g., influenza
& more
8
BUT PEOPLE STAY PEOPLE
9
WHAT THERE IS TO KNOW
How the Human Animal is Wired:
– We really do know
How to Reach People to:
– Change their preparedness BEHAVIOR for
events they think won’t happen to them
Same Process Across Hazard Agents:
– Because PEOPLE STAY PEOPLE
10
SOME DEFINITIONS
What is Readiness/Preparedness?
– The dependent variable
What is Public Education?
– The independent variable
11
WHAT IS PUBLIC READINESS?
Public Readiness/Preparedness:
– Means different things to different people
And It Can be Viewed:
– Simply
– Conceptually
– Comprehensively
12
A SIMPLE VIEW
72 Hours of Water
Flashlight & Batteries
Canned Food/MREs
Duct Tape
13
A CONCEPTUAL VIEW
Mitigation/Prevention Actions:
Structural, non-structural, medical
Preparedness Actions:
Supplies & plans
Loss Distribution Actions:
Insurance
Knowledge & Cognitions:
What to do when
14
A COMPREHENSIVE VIEW
Learn How to Be Ready:
e.g., what to do before, during, & after an event to stay safe
Plan What to Do:
e.g., household disaster plan, supply & information needs
Train & Practice:
e.g., learn first aid
Organize Supplies & Equipment:
e.g., stockpile enough of what you’ll need
Secure Building Contents:
e.g., attach heavy furniture to the walls
Protect Building Structure:
e.g., evaluate the safety of your home
Safeguard Finances:
e.g., buy insurance, have cash on hand
15
WHAT’S PUBLIC EDUCATION?
Public Education:
Means different things to different people
Includes Many Actors & Activities, e.g.,
Brochures, internet sites, television & radio spots
School coloring books & grocery bag messages
Museum displays & refrigerator magnets
School, workplace, & neighborhood activities
Can be:
Different campaigns by different organizations
A coordinated campaign across organizations
16
PUBLIC COMMUNICATION
RESEARCH FOR HAZARDS
50+ Years of Social Science Research
– Different disaster types studied
– Public education & warning events researched
350 Publications:
– Read, abstracted, key findings listed
– Sub-set of research on public education
The “Public Education Nut” has been Cracked:
– We know what works & why
17
ACCESS THE RESEARCH
350 Page Annotated Bibliography (with findings
summarized):
http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/publications/informer/
infrmr2/pubhazbibann.pdf
But Note:
Individual studies = findings
Findings across studies = knowledge
All research isn’t “good” research
18
WHAT’S IN THE
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Full Reference to Each Publication:
– Author, title, publication outlet
Summary Paragraph on:
– Event studied and study methods
List of All Hypotheses Supported:
– e.g., “A” caused “B” or
– “A” caused “B” but only when “C” present
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QUALITY RESEARCH
CHARACTERISTICS
Uses Past Research as its Context
Uses Probability Samples
Analysis Control for “X, Y & Z” when
Examining Impact of “A on B”
Determinants of Behavior Measured &
Tested vs. Respondents Asked to
Speculate “Why” they did Something
20
QUALITY RESEARCH (cont’d)
Distinguishes Between:
What people “think” vs. what people “do” (ARE different)
Good measures of what’s being studied vs. self-reports:
Medical exam self-report:
“On a scale of 1 to 5, how much cancer do you think you have?”
Readiness self-report equivalent:
“On a scale of 1 to 5, how prepared do you think you are?”
Recommendations for Practice Based on
Replicated Findings Across Studies
21
TOPICS WE’LL COVER
RESEARCH: Summarize Knowledge:
What influences the public to get ready?
How does the process work?
What’s most important?
APPLICATIONS: Summarize How to
Apply It Based on Research Evidence:
Design programs that work
Maximize people’s readiness actions
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WHAT INFLUENCES PUBLIC
READINESS?
(Replicated Research Findings)
Three Categories of Factors:
– Characteristics of the information
– Characteristics of the audience
– Process by which they mix
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INFORMATION FACTORS
“About the Public Education &
Information Campaign”
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FACTOR 1: INFORMATION
# Different Sources (who from):
The more the better
# Different Channels (how get it):
The more the better
Frequency (how often they get it):
Repetition is a must (confirms & reinforces the message)
People need to hear it ≥ 10 times to act
Guidance (tell them what to do):
If you want them to “get ready”, tell them “what to do”
25
INFORMATION (cont’d)
The Event (why they should do it):
Potential losses & consequences
– Consequences is more important than the science behind it
Need to take action
– Not event probability, but need to take action now or not
How actions cut losses
Consistency (across communications):
Works best if messages from different organizations say the
same thing (branding)
Orchestrated (across organizations):
Would be more effective if different organizations work
together rather than separately
26
FACTOR 2: CUES
Combining Verbal & Visual Messages:
– Increases effectiveness
Two Kinds of Cues:
– Physical cues (seeing things)
– Social cues (seeing people do things)
Fundamental to Human Behavior:
– “Monkey see, monkey do”
27
PUBLIC FILTER FACTORS
“About the Audience”
Differences in people are a filter through which
information must pass. The filter “distorts” the
effectiveness of the information disseminated.
28
FACTOR 3: STATUS
Socio-Economic Status:
Different resources & information sources, who’s credible varies
Age:
Young and old most vulnerable
Gender:
Women take more actions, young men = the biggest risk takers
Race & Ethnicity:
Different values & norms, co-varies with socio-economic status
Acculturation:
Integration into local life, disaster norms from other places
29
FACTOR 4: ROLES
Responsibility for Others, e.g.,
– Partnership, family, children
Why?
– Ties to others increases salience of risk
reduction & reduces risk-taking behaviors
30
FACTOR 5: EXPERIENCE
Experience: with Past Events:
– People NORMALIZE communicated risk
information based on their experience
– People think:
The events they face will be like those experienced
What was good to do in events experienced is
good to do to get ready for future events
31
PROCESS FACTORS
“How the Campaign
and Audience Mix”
32
FACTOR 6: BELIEF
Confusion on this Topic:
Equate source credibility with information belief
“Believing the information” vs. “trusting the source”
No One Credible Source for Everyone:
Single trustworthy sources leave people behind
Pathways to Information Belief:
Multiple sources, not a single source
Hearing it over & over from an un-trusted source
Best: Hearing it over & over from mixed sources
33
FACTOR 7: KNOWLEDGE
PUT IN: Most Important Things to Say to
Foster Their Getting Ready:
– What to do to get ready
– Where to get more information about it
TAKE OUT: Most Important Things to
Remove to Foster Their Getting Ready:
– Natural inclination: “I’m safe & I don’t need to
know anything else”
– Varies by hazard, local culture, & more
34
FACTOR 8: PERCEIVED RISK
Risk Perception:
Does not = behavior
Major Roadblock to Taking Action:
“I’m safe, I’ll find information that confirms it, that’s what I’ll
believe & I’ll ignore you”
People perceive safety
People Dichotomize Risk & Action:
Probabilities translated into “Will it happen or not?”
Basic question: “Do I need to do something or not?”
It’s not about behavior in proportion to probability estimates
35
FACTOR 9: PERCEIVED
EFFECTIVENESS
Perceived Effectiveness of:
– Recommended readiness actions
Degree to Which Actions:
– Make sense:
Linked: risk – losses – actions
– And people understand:
How actions cut losses
36
FACTOR 10: MILLING
The Key to Public Education that Works:
– Few do something because someone tells them to
– Most have to think it’s their own idea
Comes from Talking It Over with Others:
– Known as “milling” in social psychology
Milling is:
– The KEY FACTOR that sparks readiness actions
37
HOW FACTORS RELATE
38
FACTORS HAVE SEQUENCED
EFFECTS (for example)
Perceived Risk Determined by:
Multiple communications
Multiple channels
Milling Determined by:
Multiple communications
Multiple channels
Perceived risk
Mitigation/Preparedness Determined by:
Multiple communications
Multiple channels
Perceived risk
Milling
39
SEQUENCE OF FACTORS
Status
Information Information
Received Belief
Roles
Perception Milling Action
Cues Knowledge
Experience
40
THE SEQUENCE MODELLED
Information
Perception
Received
Cues
Status Milling
Roles
Action
Experience
Information
Belief
Knowledge
41
REDUCING IT TO MATHEMATICS
Represented by Equations:
– Called a “series of simultaneous multiple regression equations”
Can Determine:
– Effect of every factor in the model on other factors while
controlling for the effects of all other factors (“good” science)
Result Is:
– We can distinguish between what’s really important and what isn’t
When to Get Excited:
– When different studies reach the same conclusions
– That’s where we are with research on hazards public education for
increased household readiness
42
CONCLUSIONS FROM THE
MATHEMATICS
All Statistically Significant Factors AREN’T Equal
Some Factors are REALLY Important:
– 1. INFORMATION RECEIVED:
Especially telling what actions to take
– 2. CUES:
Seeing others get ready
– 3. MILLING:
Talking about getting ready with others
Some Factors are LESS Important:
– Demographics (unless information is poor)
43
SEVEN APPLICATION STEPS
(from research evidence)
44
STEP 1: DESIGN-IN PEOPLE
AND CONTEXT FACTORS
Use Age-appropriate Material
Deliver Messages in Multiple Languages
Use the Media Used by Audience Segments
Partner with Locals/Others to get Message Out
Reference Past Disasters & Use Anniversaries
Take Advantage of Disasters Elsewhere
Install Observable Cues in Neighborhoods
Put Printed Material in Strategic Locations, e.g.,
– Grocery bags
– School coloring books
45
MIDDLE CLASS APPROACHES
LEAVE OTHERS BEHIND
46
STEP 2: UNDERSTANDABLE
AND BELIEVABLE MESSAGES
Clear Material (no technical terms)
Use Locals Who Know to Help Develop Messages
Cultivate & Use a Local Champion
Partner for Consistency Across Messages:
– Media packets increase consistency
– Same message (BRANDING) from all organizations
Tell the Public What they Should Do
Use Attractive Format, Simple Language, Visual
Aids & Graphics, for example….
47
“GET READY PYRAMID”
Many of the things you
Safeguard
Finances can do to “get ready”
are free!
Protect
Building Structure
You may already have
Cost Secure some things in place.
Building Contents
Organize
Supplies & Equipment
Train & Practice
Plan What to Do
Learn How to Be Ready
48
STEP 3: “STREAM” OF
COMMUNICATION OVER TIME
Effective Risk Communication is an
ONGOING PROCESS & not Single Act:
– Sustainable stream on communication over time
Same Message Communicated:
– Many times & over diverse dissemination channels
Explain Changes from Past Messages
Incremental Approach Over Time
49
“ONGOING” MULTI-
CHANNEL COMMUNICATION
MAILED
GROCERY BROCHURE
FRIENDS &
BAGS
RELATIVES
INTERNET
SCHOOLS
PUBLIC
TV NGOs
CABLE RADIO TALK
TV
RADIO
NEWSPAPERS FAST FOOD
PLACEMATS
50
STEP 4: SHAPE RISK
PERCEPTIONS FOR ACTION
Explain:
– Who’s at risk, who isn’t, and why
Communicate Uncertainty about When,
What, & Where, But:
– Certainty in:
How to get ready
Experts agree we need to get ready now
Explain:
– Potential losses & how they can be prevented/reduced
51
LIVES CAN DEPEND ON IT
52
STEP 5: MAKE MILLING THE
“PRIME TARGET”
Tell Them Where to Get Additional Information
Put Additional Information in Accessible Places
Take Advantage of Community Events
Provide Contact Information, e.g.,
Point persons
Websites
Mail and email addresses
Encourage Talking About Getting Ready with
Others, e.g.....
53
“LET’S TALK ABOUT OUR
FAULTS” (SoCal EQ Alliance)
54
STEP 6: ENCOURAGE AND
SUPPORT ACTION
Give Specific Guidance on What to Do:
– Before, during, & after
Use Interactive & Experiential Approaches
Take Advantage of Opportunities, e.g.,
– Publicize drills & exercises
Tell Them Where & How to Get:
– Resources, technical support & professional services
Use Public & Private Partnerships to Provide them
with Materials
55
EXAMPLE BROCHURE
56
STEP 7: EVALUATE AND
MONITOR EFFECTIVENESS
Find Your Starting Place:
– Get a “baseline” of household readiness actions
Assess Change:
– Measure changes in baseline over time
Determine Visibility:
– Find out if they recognize your campaign
Evaluate:
– Which campaign components are & aren’t working
Fine Tune:
– Change your campaign based on findings
57
A SURVEY CAN DO THAT
INTERVIEWER: DATE: RESPONDENT ID:
HOUSEHOLD READINESS SURVEY INTERVIEW START TIME: ______ : ______ AM / PM
INTRODUCTION
Hello, I’m … calling from the University of California. We are interviewing people to find out what they
think should be done to prepare for emergencies and disasters in their community. This information may
help us improve responses to emergencies like Hurricane Katrina and other disasters. As a thank you,
participants will receive a $20 gift certificate. I need to ask just a few questions to see if you are eligible
to participate.
S1A. Have I reached you at your home phone?
YES SKIP TO S1D 1
NO ASK S1B 2
S1B. Is this a residence?
YES ASK S1E 1
NO TERMINATE, DIAL AGAIN 2
For this survey, I have to speak with someone who lives there who is 18 years old or older. Are you 18
or over?
YES SKIP TO S1F 1
NO ASK S1E 2
NO ONE IN HH IS 18 OR OLDER,TERMINATE 3 58
WHAT’S NEEDED SUMMARY
1. TAILORED for Diverse Groups (not one public)
2. BELIEVABLE & UNDERSTANDABLE Messages
3. BRANDING and Consistent Messages
4. DIVERSE CHANNELS for Message Delivery
5. ONGOING Long Haul Communication Stream
6. CUES that Provide Actions they Can See
7. TARGET Milling
8. SUPPORT Readiness Actions
9. EVALUATE Results & Make Changes 59
THE SUMMARY DIAGRAMMED
Same Message/Branding
Over Time
Government
Diverse Channels
Across Organizations
Across Administrations
ORCHESTRA
LEADER Someone is in charge:
– “An Orchestra Leader”
Business Ngo’s
Partnerships
Sound Marketing
Informed by:
– Hazards Social Science
– Evaluation Research 60
SUMMARY OF SUMMARY
“Sell It” Like They Sell Coca-Cola:
How old were you when you heard your first ad?
When did you encounter your last ad?
How many ads were you exposed to in-between?
What does Coca-Cola know about public behavior?
It Should be About What THEY Need to Act:
EVERYONE SELLING THE SAME MESSAGE (BRANDING)
Different campaigns orchestrated into one
Ongoing over the long haul
NOT About “Your” Organization’s:
FAVORITE MESSAGE &/OR UNIQUE CAMPAIGN
61
POST SCRIPTS
Everything Doesn’t Have to Say Everything:
– Refer them to other places
– Get them to seek more information (milling fosters actions)
Important to “Remove” Wrong Information:
– They don’t know they’re “hard wired” to think they’re safe,
they just think they’re safe
– They don’t know they believe myths, they just think it’s true
Other Strategies for Low Resource Households:
– Public education can provide incentives to do “no cost” actions
– It can’t help people with little money to buy things
– Work with NGOs to provide them what they’ll need after impact
62
SOME OF THE RESEARCH DATA
ARE AVAILABLE
Archive Includes:
Data & Codebooks
Publication references that describe methods, population & samples
Re-analyze the data yourself
http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/issr/da/earthquake/erthqkstudies2.index.htm
Available “Free of Charge” to Anyone Worldwide
Replace Well-intended Ideas for Practice with Scientific Findings
63
MORE TO COME
Presentation Contents:
– Updated as new knowledge emerges
– Will be revised soon since….
Largest & Most Detailed Studies Ever
Done are Pending:
– Survey of U.S. population on preparedness for
terrorism & natural hazards (UCLA)
– Survey of California households on readiness
for earthquakes (UCLA)
64
THANK YOU
65
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