Full_draft_list_of_pan European_futures_studies_ _30 06 2007_REV3

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					1. Global Studies

  Year       Thematic                         Title                         Authors             Organisation              Language    Geographic    Time             Source URL                                     Information
              focus                                                                                                                    coverage     Scale
     2000 Agriculture      Asian economic crisis and the long-term      Rosegrant M.W.     IFPRI                         English     Global               2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0 Food Policy 25: 234-254 IFPRI, Washington D.C.
                           global food situation                        and Ringler C.     http://www.ifpri.org/                                               306-9192(00)00004-X
     2001 Agriculture      2020 Global Food Outlook: trends,            Rosegrant et al.   IFPRI                         English     Global               2020 http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/fpr Food Policy Report 30, IFPRI, Washington D.C.
                           alternatives and choices                                        http://www.ifpri.org/                                               /fpr30.pdf
     2001 Agriculture      Prospects for global food security: a critical McCalla A.F. and IFPRI                         English     Global               2020 http://www.ifpri.org/2020/dp Food, agriculture, and the environment Discussion Paper 35
                           appraisal of past projecvtions and             Revorendo C.L. http://www.ifpri.org/                                                 /2020dp35.pdf                (81p.); also 2020 Policy Brief 71 (2p.)
                           predictions                                                                                                                                                      http://www.ifpri.org/2020/briefs/brief71.pdf
     2001 Agriculture      The Unfinished Agenda: Perspectives on       Pinstrup-Andersen IFPRI                          English     Global        Mainly 2020 http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/bo Book, IFPRI, Washington D.C.
                           Overcoming Hunger, Poverty, and              P. and Pandya-    http://www.ifpri.org/                                           2030 oks/ufa/ufa.pdf
                           Environmental Degradation                    Lorch R. (eds.)                                                                   2050

     2001 Agriculture      Global Food Projections to 2020: Emerging Rosegrant et al.      IFPRI                         English     Global               2020 http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/bo Book, IFPRI, Washington D.C.
                           Trends and Alternative Futures.                                 http://www.ifpri.org/                                               oks/gfp/gfp.pdf
     2003 Agriculture      World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030. An     Bruinsma J., (ed.) FAO                           English     Global               2015 http://www.fao.org/docrep/0 FAO Corporate Document Repository, FAO, Rome.
                           FAO perspective                                                 http://www.fao.org/                                            2030 05/y4252e/y4252e00.htm#
     2005 Agriculture      New Risks and Opportunities for Food         Von Braun et al.   IFPRI                         English     Global               2015 http://www.ifpri.org/2020/dp 2020 Discussion Paper 39, IFPRI, Washington D.C.
                           Security: Scenario Analyses for 2015 and                        http://www.ifpri.org/                                          2050 /dp39/2020dp39.pdf

     2005 Agriculture      OECD Agricultural Outlook: 2005-2014                            OECD/FAO                      English     Global        2005 - 2014 http://www.oecd.org/dataoe OECD, Paris and FAO, Rome. Also available in French under
                                                                                           http://www.oecd.org                                                 cd/32/51/35018726.pdf      the title:
                                                                                           http://www.fao.org/                                                                            "Perspectives agricoles de l‟OCDE et de la FAO 2005-2014"
     2008 Agriculture      International Assessment of Agricultural                        The World Bank                English     Global               2050 http://www.agassessment.o The global assessment involves a single quantified reference
                           Science and Technology for Development                          http://www.worldbank.org/                                           rg/                       baseline to 2050 as well as a review of other relevant scenarios.
                           (the AgAssessment)                                                                                                                                            Will be available in January 2008.

     2002 Agriculture;     Reaching Sustainable Food Security for All                      IFPRI                         English     Global               2020 http://www.ifpri.org/2020/bo 2020 Vision Publications, IFPRI, Washington D.C
          Environment &    by 2020: Getting the Priorities and                             http://www.ifpri.org/                                               oks/actionlong.pdf
          Sustainability   Responsibilities Right

     2000 Climate Change   IPCC Special Report - Emissions Scenarios IPCC Working          Intergovernmental Panel on English        Global               2020 http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/sres- Description of the emissions Scenarios used in subsequent
                                                                     Group III             Climate Change (IPCC)                                          2050 e.pdf                        IPCC studies. Summary for policymakers
                                                                                           http://www.ipcc.ch/                                            2100
     2005 Climate Change   Analysis of Post-2012 Climate Policy         Russ et al.        Institute for Prospective    English      Global         Post - 2012 http://ftp.jrc.es/eur21758en. Technical Report EUR 21758 EN, IPTS, Seville, Spain.
                           Scenarios with Limited Participation                            Technological Studies (IPTS)                                         pdf
     2005 Climate Change   Workshop on New Emission Scenarios           IPCC Working      Intergovernmental Panel on English         Global                     http://www.ipcc.ch/meet/oth Report of a 2005 workshop on the approach to scenarios work
                                                                        Group III         Climate Change (IPCC)                                                 ercorres/ESWmeetingreport after the Fourth Assessment Report (issued in 2007).
                                                                        Technical Support http://www.ipcc.ch/                                                   .pdf
     2005 Climate Change   Scenarios of World Anthropogenic           Cofala et al.        International Institute for   English     Global               2030 http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/ IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.
                           Emissions of Air Pollutants and Methane up                      Applied Systems Analysis                                            global_emiss/Global%20em
                           to 2030                                                         (IIASA)                                                             issions%20of%20air%20pol
                                                                                           http://www.iiasa.ac.at/                                             lutants%20.pdf
     2007 Climate Change   Climate Change 2007: The Physical Basis of IPCC Working         IPCC http://www.ipcc.ch/      English     Global               2100 http://ipcc-                 Working Group I Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on
                           Climate Change                             Group I                                                                                  wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-        Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Full report
                                                                                                                                                               report.html                  available
     2007 Climate Change   Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate IPCC Working         IPCC http://www.ipcc.ch/      English     Global        2030 - 2100 http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM040 Working Group III contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on
                           Change                                     Group III                                                                                507.pdf                   Climate Change Summary for Policymakers, IPCC, Geneva.
       2007 Climate Change    Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation      IPCC Working      IPCC http://www.ipcc.ch/     English    Global    2030 - 2100 http://www.ipcc-              Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on
                              and Vulnerability.                            Group II                                                                        wg2.org/index.html            Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Summary for
                                                                                                                                                                                          Policymakers, IPCC, Geneva.
       2007 Climate Change    Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)                                  IPCC http://www.ipcc.ch/     English    Global                 http://www.ipcc.ch/          The fourth assessment reviews a wide range of available
                                                                                                                                                                                          scenarios but does not develop new scenarios. Publication date:
                                                                                                                                                                                          Working Group reports spread over the first half of 2007; Policy
                                                                                                                                                                                          Makers Summary in November 2007.

       2004 Demography        Population and Scenarios: Worlds to Win?      Hilderink H.B.M   Rijksinstituut voor          English    Global      2000-2100 http://www.rivm.nl/bibliothe National Institute for Public Health and the Environment. RIVM
                                                                                              Volksgezondheid en Milieu                                     ek/rapporten/550012001.pd report 550012001/2004, Bilthoven.
                                                                                              (RIVM)                                                        f

       2007 Demography        World Population Prospects: 2006 Revision                       UN Department of Economic English       Global      2000-2100 http://www.un.org/esa/popul On-line database.
                                                                                              & Social Affairs (UNDESA)                                     ation/publications/wpp2006/
                                                                                              http://www.un.org/esa/                                        wpp2006.htm

       2000 Economy; Global   The Future of the Global Economy:                               OECD http://www.oecd.org     English    Global           2020 http://www.oecd.org/dataoe Chapter 6, assesses various policy options on the basis of three
            Futures           Towards a Long Boom?                                                                                                     2030 cd/42/0/35394025.pdf       plausible scenarios for a 21st century long boom, OECD, Paris.

       2007 Economy; Global   Global Economic Prospects - Managing the                        The World Bank               English    Global           2030 http://www-                  World Bank, Washington D.C.
            Futures           next wave of globalization                                      http://www.worldbank.org                                      wds.worldbank.org/external/
        2007 Energy           International Energy Outlook 2007                               US Energy Information        English    Global           2030 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ Annual Publication. Energy Information Administration, Office of
 (forthcoing)                                                                                 Administration                                                ieo/pdf/0484(2007).pdf       Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, U.S. Department of
                                                                                              http://www.eia.doe.gov/                                                                    Energy, Washington, DC.
       2005 Energy            Projected Costs of Generating Electricity –                     EIA/OECD                     English    Global           2050 http://www.iea.org/textbase/ EIA and OECD, Paris. Also available in french under the title:
                              2005 Update                                                     http://www.iea.org                                            nppdf/free/2005/ElecCost.p "Coûts prévisionnels de production de l‟électricité : Mise à jour
                                                                                              http://www.oecd.org                                           df                           2005"
       2005 Energy            World Energy Outlook 2005 Edition - Middle                      IEA http://www.iea.org      English     Global   2010    2020 http://www.iea.org/textbase/ World Energy Outlook 2005, IEA and OECD, Paris. For sale.
                              East and North Africa Insights                                  http://www.worldenergyoutlo                              2030 nppdf/free/2005/weo2005.p http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/WEO2005SUM.pdf
                                                                                              ok.org/                                                       df Executive Summary
       2006 Energy            World Energy Outlook 2006                                       IEA http://www.iea.org      English     Global           2030 http://www.iea.org/w/books Provides a "business as usual" scenario and an "alternative
                                                                                              http://www.worldenergyoutlo                                   hop/add.aspx?id=279        policy scenario" to address climate change and energy security
                                                                                              ok.org/                                                                                  issues. For sale: paper €150, PDF €120. Executive Summary:

        2007 Energy           World Energy Outlook 2007 Edition - China                       IEA http://www.iea.org      English     Global           2030 http://www.iea.org/w/books Features 3 key energy scenarios to 2030: The Reference
(forthcoming)                 and India Insight                                               http://www.worldenergyoutlo                                   hop/add.aspx?id=319        Scenario, The Alternative Policy Scenario, and The High Growth
                                                                                              ok.org/                                                                                  Scenario. To be released on 7 November 2007.         For sale:
                                                                                                                                                                                       €120 pdf, €150 paper.

       2003 Energy; Climate   World energy, technology and climate                            European Commission           English   Global           2030 http://europa.eu.int/comm/r EUR 20366, Directorate-General for Research (Energy) The
            Change            policy outlook — WETO 2030                                      http://ec.europa.eu/index_en.                                 esearch/energy/gp/gp_pu/a publication is available on request from domenico.rossetti-di-
                                                                                              htm                                                           rticle_1257_en.htm          valdalbero@ec.europa.eu

       2005 Energy; Climate   Development of a model of the World      Lantz et al.           Institute for Prospective    English    Global           2020 http://ftp.jrc.es/eur21864en. Technical Report Series EUR 21864 EN. European
            Change            Refining for the POLES model : the OURSE                        Technological Studies (IPTS)                                  pdf                           Commission, Joint Research Centre (DG JRC) and IPTS,
                              model                                                           http://www.jrc.es/                                                                          Seville, Spain.
        2005 Energy; Climate     Pathways to 2050 - Energy and Climate                            World Business Council for   English           Global        2050 http://www.wbcsd.ch/DocR Pathways to 2050 present IEA and IPCC scenarios, and builds
             Change              Change                                                           Sustainable Development                                           oot/xrueRYJquVOw2QHUx on the WBCSD‟s 2004 Facts and Trends to 2050; providing a
                                                                                                  (WBCSD)                                                           75U/pathways.pdf         more detailed overview of potential pathways to reducing CO2
                                                                                                  http://www.wbcsd.ch/                                                                       emissions. WBCSD, Geneva.

        2003 Energy;             Energy to 2050: Scenarios for a Sustainable                      International Energy Agency English            Global        2050 http://www.iea.org/textbase/ Contains: Long Term Energy and Environment Scenarios:
             Environment &       Future                                                           (IEA) and OECD                                                    nppdf/free/2000/2050_2003 the Literature; Three Exploratory Scenarios to 2050; and A
             Sustainability                                                                       http://www.iea.org                                                .pdf                         Normative Scenario to 2050: the SD Vision Scenario.
                                                                                                  http://www.oecd.org                                                                            IEA and OECD, Paris.
        2001 Environment &       OECD Environmental Outlook                                       OECD                         English, French   Global        2020 http://www.oecdbookshop.o    Provides projections to 2020 of environmental pressures from
             Sustainability                                                                       http://www.oecd.org                                               rg/oecd/display.asp?lang=E   key economic sectors and changes in the state of the
                                                                                                                                                                    N&sf1=identifiers&st1=9720   environment for selected environmental issues, OECD, Paris.
                                                                                                                                                                    01011p1                      For sale €90 (paper), €62 (pdf) . Also available in French.
        2004 Environment &       Quality and the Future: Sustainability                           RIVM http://www.rivm.nl/en/ English, Dutch     Global        2100 http://www.rivm.nl/bibliothe National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, RIVM,
             Sustainability      outlook                                                                                                                            ek/rapporten/500013010.pd Bilthoven. English summary; full report in Dutch.
        2005 Environment &       Ecosystems and Human Well-being:                                 Millenium Ecosystem         English            Global        2100 http://www.millenniumasses Volume 2, part of the book "Ecosystems and Human Well-being:
             Sustainability      Scenarios, Volume 2                                              Assessment                                                        sment.org/en/Scenarios.asp Multivolume Set".
                                                                                                  http://www.millenniumassess                                       x                          Synthesis Report:
                                                                                                  ment.org/en/Index.aspx                                                                       http://www.mnp.nl/bibliotheek/digitaaldepot/MAgeneralsynthesis.

2005          Environment &      Exploring past and future changes in the      Detlef P., van                                  English                         2050                              The study derives a set of long-term Ecological footprint
              Sustainability     ecological footprint for world regions        Vuuren, and                                                                                                       scenarios for 17 world regions. Ecological Economics , Vol. 52,
                                                                               Bouwman L.F.                                                                                                      Issue 1/Jan, pp. 43-62

        2002 Environment &       Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of     Raskin et al.      SEI and GSG                  English           Global        2050 http://www.tellus.org/seib/p SEI, PoleStar Series Report no. 10, Boston.
             Sustainability;     the Times Ahead -A report of the Global                          http://www.sei.se/                                                ublications/Great_Transition
             Global Futures      Scenario Group                                                   http://www.gsg.org/                                               s.pdf
        2002 Environment &       Global Scenario Group Futures – Technical Kemp-Benedict et Stockholm Environment              English           Global        2100 http://www.tellus.org/seib/p SEI; PoleStar Series Report no. 9. Stockholm.
             Sustainability;     Notes                                     al.              Institute (SEI)                                                         ublications/GSGFutures_P
             Global Futures                                                                 http://www.sei.se/                                                      S9.pdf
        2002 Environment &       Global Environmental Outlook 3- Past,                            UNEP http://www.unep.org/ English              Global   2002-2032 http://www.unep.org/GEO/g Available in several languages. For sale US $38.00 Earthscan
             Sustainability;     present and future perspectives                                                                                                    eo3/ Introductory Text    Publication, London. (including synthesis):
             Global Futures                                                                                                                                                                   http://www.unep.org/GEO/geo3/english/pdfs/prelims.pdf

        2004 Environment &       The GEO-3 Scenarios 2002-2032:                Potting J. and     United Nations Environment English             Global        2032 http://www.unep.org/GEO/p UNEP/DEWA/RS.03-4 and RIVM 402001022, Netherlands.
             Sustainability;     Quantification and analysis of                Bakkes J. (eds.)   Programme (UNEP) and                                              dfs/The%20GEO-
             Global Futures      environmental impacts                                            National Institute for Public                                     3%20Scenarios.PDF
                                                                                                  Health and the Environment
        2008 Environment &       OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030                               OECD                          English          Global        2030 http://www.oecd.org/LongA    This report will update and extend the projections from the 2001
             Sustainability;                                                                      http://www.oecd.org                                               bstract/0,2546,en_2649_20    Outlook, focus on new and emerging issues, and provide
             Global Futures                                                                                                                                         1185_38126171_1_1_1_1,0      detailed analysis of specific policies. OECD, Paris. Available mid-
                                                                                                                                                                    0.html                       February 2008.
         2007 Environment &      Global Environment Outlook 4 (GEO-4)                             UNEP http://www.unep.org/ English              Global   2015/2050                              To be published in October 2007.
  (forthcoing) Sustainability;
               Global Futures
        2008 Environment &       Second OECD Environmental Outlook                                OECD                         English           Global        2030                              To be released in February 2008.
(forthcoming) Sustainability;                                                                     http://www.oecd.org
              Global Futures
        2002 Fisheries           Fish as food: projections to 2020 under       Delgado et al.     IFPRI                        English           Global        2020 http://www.ifpri.org/divs/mti Markets and Structural Studies Division (MSSD) Discussion
                                 different scenarios                                              http://www.ifpri.org/                                             d/dp/papers/mssdp52.pdf Paper 52, IFPRI, Washington D.C.
2003 Fisheries         Fish to 2020: Supply and Demand in          Delgado et al.       IFPRI and WorldFish Center English      Global        2020 http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/bo Book, IFPRI, Washington ,D.c. and WorldFish Center Technical
                       Changing Global Markets                                          http://www.ifpri.org/                                      oks/fish2020/oc44.pdf        Report 62, Penang. Summary version available as: Outlook for
                                                                                        http://www.worldfishcenter.or                                                           Fish to 2020: Meeting Global Demand:
                                                                                        g/                                                                                      http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/fpr/pr15.pdf

2002 Global Future     Global Scenarios to 2020 - Public Summary                        Shell Corp.                  English    Global        2020 http://www.shell.com/static/   The Global Scenarios of the1990s, Overview of Selected
                                                                                        http://www.shell.com                                       aboutshell-                    Country Scenarios, and Scenarios and the World We Live In -
                                                                                                                                                   en/downloads/our_strategy/     The Terrorist Attacks in the US and the Global Scenarios.
                                                                                                                                                   shell_global_scenarios/peo     People and Connections, Global Business Environment, Shell
                                                                                                                                                   ple_and_connections.pdf        International, London.

2003 Global Futures    Emerging Systemic Risks in The 21st                              OECD http://www.oecd.org     English    Global        2050 http://www.oecd.org/dataoe OECD, Paris.
                       Century: An Agenda for Action                                                                                               cd/20/23/37944611.pdf
2004 Global Futures    Mapping the Global Future                                        National Intelligence Council English   Global        2025 http://www.foia.cia.gov/202 Report of the National Intelligence Council‟s 2020 Project,
                                                                                        (NIC)                                                      0/2020.pdf                  Based on consultations with nongovernmental experts around
                                                                                        http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_h                                                           the world. NIC.
2005 Global Futures    Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 The Future                        Shell Corp.                  English    Global        2025 http://www.shell.com/static/ Shell International Limited
                       Business Environment - Trends, Trade-offs                        http://www.shell.com/                                      aboutshell-
                       and Choices                                                                                                                 en/downloads/our_strategy/

2006 Global Futures    State of the Future.                        Glenn J.C. and       American Council for the     English    Global              http://www.acunu.org/millen The Millennium Project. For Sale: $49.95 US
                                                                   Gordon T.J.          United National University                                  nium/sof2006.html           Executive Summary:
                                                                                        http://www.acunu.org/                                                                   http://www.acunu.org/millennium/sof2006-exec-summ.pdf
2000 Global Futures;   The Creative Society of the 21st Century                         OECD http://www.oecd.org English        Global        2050 http://www.oecd.org/dataoe Discusses 2 scenarios: "the knowledge growth scenario" and
     Technology &                                                                                                                                  cd/41/13/35391171.pdf      "the deskilling scenario" (p.89). Future Studies, OECD, Paris.
2001 Technology &      The Global Technology Revolution:           Antón P.S.,          RAND/National Defense        English    Global        2015 http://www.rand.org/pubs/m Prepared for the National Intelligence Council. RAND, Santa
     Innovation        Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and Their         Silberglitt R. and   Research Institute                                         onograph_reports/2005/MR Monica, California.
                       Synergies with Information Technology by    Schneider J.         http://www.rand.org/                                       1307.pdf

2003 Transport         Fuel Cells, Impact and consequences of      Oertel et al         Institute for Prospective    English    Global        2010 http://ftp.jrc.es/eur20681en. Technical Report Series EUR 20681 EN. Institute for
                       Fuel Cells technology on sustainable                             Technological Studies (IPTS)                               pdf                           Prospective Technological Studies, Seville, Spain.
                       development                                                      http://www.jrc.es/
2004 Transport         Mobility 2030: Meeting the challenges to                         World Business Council for   English    Global        2030 http://www.wbcsd.ch/web/p The Sustainable Mobility Project, WBCSD, Conches-Geneva.
                       sustainability                                                   Sustainable Development                                    ublications/mobility/mobility-
                                                                                        (WBCSD)                                                    full.pdf
2005 Transport         Prospects for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells                            International Energy Agency English     Global        2050 http://www.iea.org/textbase/ OECD/IEA, Paris.
                                                                                        http://www.iea.org                                         nppdf/free/2005/hydrogen2
2006 Transport         Infrastructure to 2030: Telecom, Land                            OECD http://www.oecd.org     English    Global        2030 http://www.oecdbookshop.o For sale: €45, OECD, Paris. The second volume, "Infrastructure
                       Transport, Water and Electricity                                                                                            rg/oecd/display.asp?sf1=ide to 2030: Mapping Policy for Electricity, Water and Transport",
                                                                                                                                                   ntifiers&lang=EN&st1=0320 will be published in July 2007.
2004 Transport         Potential for Hydrogen as a Fuel for        Altmann et al.       IPTS http://www.jrc.es/      English    Global   2020-2030 http://ftp.jrc.es/eur21090en. Full Background Report. IPTC, Seville, Spain.
                       Transport in the Long Term (2020 - 2030)                                                                                    pdf
2000 Water   World Water Vision: Making Water            Cosgrove and       World Water Council (WWC) English     Global           2025 http://www.worldwatercoun Projected water use and water stress in 2025. WWC, Earthscan
             Everybody's Business                        Rijsberman         http://www.worldwatercouncil                                cil.org/index.php?id=961&L Publications, London. Table of Contents, Preface, and
                                                                            .org/                                                       =0%5C                      Executive Summary:

2002 Water   Global Water Outlook to 2025: Averting an   Rosegrant et al.   IFPRI                       English   Global           2025 http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/fpr A 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment
             Impending Crisis                                               http://www.ifpri.org/                                       /fprwater2025.pdf             Initiative, IFPRI, Washington,D.C.
2002 Water   World Water and Food to 2025: Dealing with Rosegrant et al.    IFPRI                       English   Global           2025 http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/bo Contains Future Scenarios: "The Business-as-Usual Scenario",
             Scarcity                                                       http://www.ifpri.org/                                       oks/water2025/water2025.p "The Water Crisis Scenario", "The Sustainable Water Use
                                                                                                                                        df                           Scenario", FPRI, Washington, D.C.
2007 Water   Water for food Water for life - A                              International Water         English   Global   2025 (quant.) Summary:                   Evaluates the benefits, costs, and impacts of the past 50 years
             Comprehensive Assessment of Water                              Management Institute (IWMI)                             and http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/A of water development and challenges to water management
             Management in Agriculture                                      http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/                      2050 (qual.) ssessment/files_new/synth currently facing communities. Book for sale.
2. Pan-European studies

  Year          Thematic                    Title                    Authors         Organisation           Language       Geographic           Time           Source URL                                         Information
                 focus                                                                                                      coverage            Scale
     2006 Agriculture; energy Assessment of the potential        Ericsson K. and                           English     EU15, ACC10, plus            2100 http://www.hcs.harvard.edu/~ Makes short, medium and long-term projections. Biomass and
                              biomass supply in Europe using a   Nilsson L. J.                                         Belarus and the                   hejc/papers/Ericsson_Bioma Bioenergy , Volume 30, Issue 1, pp.1-15.
                              resource-focused approach                                                                Ukraine.                          ssBioenergy_2006.pdf
     2001 Air                From Economic Activities to         Suutari et al.     IIASA                  English     EU-15, EFTA countries,       2010 http://www.iiasa.ac.at/%7Erai "First wave countries": the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary,
                             Ecosystem Protection in Europe.                        http://www.iiasa.ac.at             „first wave‟ EU                   ns/reports/ciam-cce1.pdf      Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia. CIAM/CCE Report 1/2001, Center for
                             An Uncertainty Analysis of Two                                                            accession countries +                                           Integrated Assessment Modelling, Co-operative Programme for
                             Scenarios of the RAINS Integrated                                                         other countries                                                 Monitoring and Evaluation of Long-range Transmission of Air
                             Assessment Model                                                                                                                                          Pollutants in Europe (EMEP), IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.

     2005 Air                Baseline Scenarios for the Clean    Amann et al.       International Institute English    Europe                       2020 http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/C Submitted to DG Environment. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.
                             Air for Europe (CAFE) Programme                        for Applied Systems                                                  AFE_files/Cafe-
                                                                                    Analysis (IIASA)                                                     Lot1_FINAL(Oct).pdf

     2004 Air; Climate        Modelling of Emissions of Air      Klimont Z. and     IIASA                  English     Europe                       2020 http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/r Interim Report IR 04-048, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.
          change; agriculture Pollutants and Greenhouse Gases    Brink C.           http://www.iiasa.ac.at                                               eports/ir-04-048.pdf
                              from Agricultural Sources in

     2005 Climate Change     Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Hassol S.J.        The Arctic Council, English        Arctic                       2100 http://amap.no/acia/            Overview report, ACIA, Cambridge University Press. The report
                             Climate Impact Assessment                              International Arctic                                                                                 was prepared in english and translated into several other
                                                                                    Science Committee                                                                                    languages.

     2002 Climate Change;    Assessing effects of forecasted     Bakkenes et al.                           English     Europe                       2050 Abstract:                    Global Change Biology 8 (4), 390–407.
          Biodiversity       climate change on the diversity and                                                                                         http://www.blackwell-
                             distribution of European higher                                                                                             synergy.com/links/doi/10.104
                             plants for 2050                                                                                                             6/j.1354-1013.2001.00467.x

     2007 Climate change;    Carbon pricing and the diffusion of Pettersson F.                             English     Croatia, the European        2020                                 Analyses the costs of CO2 reduction in the power-generating
          energy             renewable power generation in                                                             part of Russia,                                                   sectors by using a linear programming model.
                             Eastern Europe: A linear                                                                  Macedonia, Serbia and                                             Energy Policy, Vol.35, Issue 4, pp. 2412-2425 .
                             programming approach                                                                      the Ukraine
     2000 Energy             Restructuring and Privatizing the                      World Energy Council English, French EU10 and EECCA             2050 http://www.worldenergy.org/     Includes review of energy scenarios for EECCA. Title in French:
                             Coal Industries in Central and                         http://www.worldener                                                 wec-                            La restructuration et la privatisation de l‟industrie charbonnière en
                             Eastern Europe and the CIS                             gy.org                                                               geis/global/downloads/coalfin   Europe centrale et orientale et dans la CEI, World Energy
                                                                                                                                                         al.pdf                          Council, London.

     2001 Energy             The future of gas infrastructures in Klaassen G.,                             English     Europe and Asia              2020                                 The study provides projected trade flows for 2020 and focuses on
                             Eurasia                              McDonald A. and                                                                                                        three high-growth scenarios and a single middle course scenario.
                                                                  Zhao J.                                                                                                                Energy Policy, Vol. 29, Issue 5/April, pp. 319-413.
2001 Environment &        Integrated Visions for a Sustainable Rotmans et al.   International Centre English    Europe                        2050 http://www.icis.unimaas.nl/pu Climate futures (droughts and floods); Climate impacts (cities
     Sustainability       Europe                                                for Integrated Studies                                             bl/downs/01_21.pdf            and infrastructure); Response mechanisms (mitigation &
                                                                                (ICIS)                                                                                           adaptation). Visions Final Report. Submitted by the International
                                                                                http://www.icis.unima                                                                            Centre for Integrative Studies to the Research and Development
                                                                                as.nl/                                                                                           Directorate, European Commission. ENV4-CT97-0462. ICIS,

2005 Environment &        The European environment — State                      European             English    Europe                        2030 Executive summary             http://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/20051122115248
     Sustainability       and outlook 2005                                      Environmental                                                      http://reports.eea.europa.eu/
                                                                                Agency (EEA)                                                       state_of_environment_report
                                                                                http://www.eea.europ                                               _2005_1/en/EN-summary.pdf

2001 Forestry             Sustainable management regimes       Nabuurs G.J,                           English   Covers EU, EFTA and           2050 http://www.biomassandbioen Using the European Forest Information Scenario Model, the
                          for Europe’s forests a projection    Paivinen R.,                                     SE Europe                          ergy.nl/filesdwnld/Sustainabl study makes projections of the development of the European
                          with EFISCEN until 2050              Schanz H.                                                                           emanagementForest.pdf         forests under 4 scenarios. Forest Policy and Economics , 3, pp.

2004 Forestry             Scenarios on forest management in Schelhaas et al .   European Forest       English   CZ, HU, PL & Ukraine                                              European Forest Institute Research Report, Volume 17. Joensuu,
                          Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland                       Institute                                                                                         Finland. For sale $83.
                          and Ukraine.                                          http://www.efi.int/
2005 Forestry             European Forest Sector Outlook                        UNECE/FAO             English   Europe                   2010/2020 http://www.unece.org/trade/ti Geneva Timber & Forest Study Paper 20, Main Report.
                          Study                                                 http://www.unece.org                                               mber/docs/sp/sp-20.pdf        ECE/TIM/SP/20. UNECE/FAO, Geneva.
                                                                                / http://www.fao.org/

2004 Land Use             Final Report of European and       Kok K., Rothman    International Centre English    Focuses on four areas         2030 http://www.icis.unimaas.nl/m Final report describing the European, Mediterranean land use
                          Mediterranean scenarios: upscaling D.S and Patel M.   for Integrated                  in ES, GR, IT and PT.              edaction/                    change scenarios. Working paper: I04-E002, ICIS, Maastricht.
                          the results from the Target Area                      assessment and
                          scenarios                                             Sustainable
                                                                                development (ICIS).

2006 Land Use;            Integrated futures for Europe’s                       Mitchley J., Price    English   Mountain areas in 6                                               Three main BioScene scenarios are evaluated: "Business as
     Biodiversity;        mountain regions: Reconciling                         M.F. and                        European countries:                                               Usual", "Agricultural Liberalisation", "Managed Change for
     Agriculture          biodiversity conservation and                         Tzanopoulos J.                  France, Norway,                                                   Biodiversity". Journal of Mountain Science , Vol. 3, No. 4 / Dec.
                          human livelihoods                                                                     Switzerland, Scotland,
                                                                                                                Slovakia, Greece

2005 Land Use;            PRELUDE: Land use scenarios for                       EEA                  English    Europe                               http://scenarios.ewindows.eu Reports and information on the PRELUDE project.See, for
     agriculture;         Europe                                                http://www.eea.europ                                                 .org/reports/fol077184       example: PRELUDE: Land use scenarios for Europe - modelling
     Environment and                                                            a.eu/                                                                                             at the regional scale. Regional case studies Estonia, The
     sustainability                                                                                                                                                               Netherlands, Northern Italy:

2007 Marine               Exploring challenges for managing                     European Lifestyles English     Europe                               http://www.elme-            Chapter 7: Scenarios. University of Plymouth Marine Institute,
     environment;         Europe's seas                                         & Marine                                                             eu.org/public/Results/ELME_ Marine and Coastal Policy Research Centre, Drake Circus,
     Fisheries                                                                  Ecosystems (ELME)                                                    %20Results.pdf              Plymouth.

2007 Marine               Arctic Shipping 2030: Driving        Brunstad B.      ECON Consultancy      English   Arctic                        2030                                Presentation for The Nor-Shipping Opening Conference, Oslo, 12
     environment;         forces that will determine                            http://www.econ.no                                                                                June 2007
     transport; climate   opportunities and risks.
2006 Transport; climate   Cost effectiveness of CO2           Kampman B.et al.   CE Netherlands     English   EU 25    2010 http://www.cemt.org/topics/e Report prepared for the European Conference of Ministers of
     change               mitigation in transport. An outlook                    Solutions for                         2030 nv/CO2mitigation.pdf         Transport (ECMT), CE, Delft,The Netherlands.
                          and comparison to cost                                 environment,
                          effectiveness of measures in other                     economy and
                          sectors                                                technology

2002 Water                An Integrated Analysis of Changes Henrichs T.,                            English   Europe   2070 http://journals.sfu.ca/int_asse Integrated Assessment, Vol. 3, No. 1/March, pp.15-29.
                          in Water Stress in Europe         Lehner B. and                                                   ss/index.php/iaj/article/view/2
                                                            Alcamo J.                                                       01/152
3. EU Studies

  Year       Thematic                      Title                      Authors         Organisation           Language        Geographic           Time              Source URL                                           Information
              focus                                                                                                           coverage            Scale
     2002 Agriculture       IPTS/ESTO Studies on Reforms of                          Institute for         English      EU                           2050 http://eric.ed.gov/ERICDocs/data/eric Report EUR 20248 EN, European Communities.
                            Agriculture, Education and Social                        Prospective                                                          docs2/content_storage_01/0000000b/
                            Systems within the Context of                            Technological                                                        80/23/4a/62.pdf
                            Enlargement and Demographic                              Studies (IPTS)
                            Change in the EU                                         http://www.jrc.es/

     2004 Agriculture       Prospects for agricultural markets                       European              English      EU-25                        2011 http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/publi/c European Commission Directorate-General for Agriculture.
                            and income 2004 – 2011 for EU-25                         Commission, DG                                                       aprep/prospects2004b/fullrep.pdf

     2006 Agriculture       Forecast of food, farming and                            European Fertilizer English        EU                           2016 http://www.efma.org/Publications/For EFMA, Brussels.
                            fertilizer use in the European Union                     Manufacturers                                                        ecast%202006-
                            2006–2016                                                Association (EFMA)                                                   2016/Efma%20Forecast%202006%2
                                                                                     http://www.efma.org/                                                 0Site.pdf

     2000 Climate Change    Assessment of the Potential Effects Parry M.L. et al.    Jackson Environment English        EU                                                                       JEI, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, pp.320
                            and Adaptations for Climate                              Institute (JEI),
                            Change in Europe: The Europe                             University of East
                            ACACIA Project                                           Anglia, UK

     2002 Climate Change    ACROPOLIS: Assessing Climate                             European               English     EU                           2050 http://eem.web.psi.ch/Publications/Ot Project funded by the European Community under the „Energy,
                            Response Options: Policy                                 Commission                                                           her_Reports/Project_Related_Docum Environment and Sustainable Development‟ - Framework
                            Simulations — Insights from using                        http://ec.europa.eu/in                                               ents/acro-interim.pdf                 Programme V (1998-
                            national and international models                        dex_en.htm                                                                                                 2002)Directorate-General for Research (ACROPOLIS project),
                                                                                                                                                                                                Mid-term report

     2004 Climate change    Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem         Schroter et al.   Potsdam Institute for English      EU                           2020 http://www.pik-                     Emissions (CO2); Climate futures (temperature and
                            Analysis and Modelling (ATEAM)                           Climate Impact                                                  2050 potsdam.de/ateam/ateam_final_report precipitation); Climate impacts (forestry, agriculture, water,
                                                                                     Research (PIK)                                                  2080 _sections_5_to_6.pdf                biodiversity, carbon storage, mountains); Response mechanisms
                                                                                     http://www.pik-                                                                                          (adaptation). - Final Project Report, PIK, Potsdam, Germany.

     2003 Climate Change;   Greenhouse Gas Reduction          Criqui P., Kitous A.   European               English     EU                           2025 http://ec.europa.eu/environment/clima Directorate-General for Environment (REDEM project).
          energy            Pathways in the UNFCCC Process and Berk M.               Commission                                                      2050 t/pdf/pm_summary2025.pdf              Policymakers summary.
                            up to 2025 - policymakers summary                        http://ec.europa.eu/in
                            and technical report                                     dex_en.htm

     2001 Demography        Demography in the Mediterranean Attane I. and            UNEP – Regional        English,    Mediterranean region         2025 http://www.planbleu.org/publications/d Plan Bleu, Centre d'activités régionales, Sophia Antipolis,
                            Region - Situation and Projections Courbage Y.           Activity Centre – Blue French                                        emo_uk_part1.pdf                       Valbonne. Population (French Edition), 57e Année, No. 3 (May -
                            (2004). Translation of: La                               Plan                                                                                                        Jun., 2002), pp. 583-584;
                            démographie en Méditerranée.                             http://www.planbleu.o
                            Situation et projections (2001)                          rg/indexUK.html

     2004 Demography        Low Fertility and Population           Grant et al.      RAND Europe          English       Case studies in France,      2050 http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph Chapter 4: Five Case Studies of Demographic Change. Prepared
                            Ageing: Causes, Consequences,                            http://www.rand.org/               Germany, Poland, Spain            s/2004/RAND_MG206.pdf              for the European Commission, RAND Europe, Leiden.
                            and Policy Options                                                                          and Sweden

     2005 Demography        Population projections: Trend                            Eurostat             English       EU                           2051 http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/porta Eurostat, European Commission. Data available on-line.
                            scenario, national and regional                          http://www.ec.europa                                                 l/page?_pageid=0,1136184,0_455725
                            level - base year 2004                                   .eu/eurostat                                                         95&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
    2004 Economy             Four Futures of Europe               de Mooij R. and     Central Planning     English    EU                           2040 PART III - Scenarios:               Special Publication 49, CPB, The Hague. The publication is
                                                                  Tang P.             Bureau (CPB)                                                      http://www.cpb.nl/eng/pub/cpbreekse downloadable in 3 parts:
                                                                                      www.cpb.nl/eng                                                    n/bijzonder/49/bijz49_deel3.pdf     http://www.cpb.nl/eng/pub/cpbreeksen/bijzonder/49/
    2003 Energy; agriculture Biofuel Production Potential of EU- Kavalov B. et al.    IPTS                 English    EU10                         2020 Addendum to the Final Report:        Report EUR 20835 EN, IPTS, Joint Research Centre (JRC),
                             Candidate Countries                                      http://www.jrc.es/                                                http://www.p2pays.org/ref/05/04168.p European Commission.
                                                                                                                                                        df                                   Final Report: http://www.p2pays.org/ref/05/04169.pdf
    2004 Energy; Climate     Four Futures for Energy Markets      Bollen J., Manders Central Planning      English    EU                     Mainly 2040 http://www.cpb.nl/eng/pub/cpbreekse Explores energy, climate change developments in terms of the
         Change              and Climate Change                   T. and Mulder M. Bureau (CPB)                                                     2050 n/bijzonder/52/bijz52.pdf           Four Futures of Europe scenarios. CPB, The Hague.
    2003 Energy; transport   European Energy and Transport:       Mantzos L. et al.   EC, DG Energy and English       EU                           2030 Executive summary.                    DG Energy & Transport, EC. Publication available in separate pdf
                             Trends to 2030                                           Transport                                                         http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/energy_transp files.
                                                                                      http://ec.europa.eu/d                                             ort/figures/trends_2030/1_pref_en.pdf http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/energy_transport/figures/trends_2030/ind
                                                                                      gs/energy_transport/i                                                                                   ex_en.htm

    2004 Energy; transport   European Energy and Transport     Mantzos et al.         EC, DG Energy and English       EU                           2030 http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/energy_transp Linked to European Energy and Transport: Trends to 2030 (see
                             Trends to 2030 — Scenarios on key                        Transport                                                         ort/figures/scenarios/doc/2005_flyer_s above)
                             drivers                                                  http://ec.europa.eu/d                                             cenarios_on_key_drivers.pdf

    2003 Environment &       Four scenarios for Europe                                UNEP/RIVM            English    EU                           2030 http://www.unep.org/geo/pdfs/four_sc Based on UNEP‟s third Global Environment Outlook.
         Sustainability                                                               http://www.unep.org/                                              enarios_europe.pdf                   UNEP/DEIA&EW/TR.03-10 and RIVM 402001021

    2003 Environment &       Generic Scenarios (2003);            Römgens B. et al. Wadden Sea Forum English          Wadden Sea (Germany,         2020 Specific scenarios skeletons:         Generic world scenarios were developed and used to prepare
         Sustainability;     Specific Scenarios skeletons on                        http://www.waddense               Netherlands)                      http://www.waddensea-                 specific sector and area scenarios, used to develop a regional
         Global futures;     Energy, Industry/Harbor,                               a-forum.org                                                         forum.org/Archive/WSFnewArchive_r     strategy. Wadden Sea Forum, Wilhelmshaven, Germany.
         coastal zones       Agriculture, Fisheries                                                                                                     eports.htm                            Generic Scenarios: http://www.waddensea-

    2002 Global futures      Foresight Futures 2020: Revised                          Department of Trade English     UK focus                     2020 http://www.foresight.gov.uk/Publicatio Response mechanisms (mitigation). DTI.
                             Scenarios and Guidance                                   and Industry (DTI)                                                ns/Current_round_General_Publicatio

    2003 Land Use            Future Land Use in Europe: Trends, Knickel K. and Kok ICIS (International    English     EU                                 http://www.icis.unimaas.nl/medaction/ A scoping paper prepared for the European Forum on Integrated
                             Challenges and Policy.             K.                 Centre for Integrative                                                                                      Environmental Assessment. Discusses driving forces on
                                                                                   Studies, U.                                                                                                 agriculture and other sectors.

2005 and Land use;           The EURURALIS Study: Technical       Klijn J.A. et al.   Wagenin University & English    EU                           2030 http://www.mnp.nl/images/AlterraRap Four narrative scenarios based on two axes: regional vs. global
 ongoing agriculture         document (version 1.0)                                   Research Centre                                                   port1196_tcm61-29777.pdf            economy; high vs. low regulation. Combined with modelling.
                             http://www.eururalis.nl/                                 (NL) and partners                                                                                     EURURALIS 2 project is underway. Alterra-rapport 1196, Alterra,
                                                                                      (financed by NL                                                                                       Wageningen.
    2006 Land Use; economy Spatial Scenarios and Orientations                         European Spatial      English   EU                       2015 and http://www.espon.eu/mmp/online/web ESPON project product 3.2. ESPON, Esch-sur-Alzette,
                           in relation to the ESDP and                                Planning Observatory                                         2030 site/content/projects/260/716/file_278 Luxembourg. The report elaborates three scenarios for EU
                           Cohesion Policy                                            Network (ESPON)                                                   6/fr-3.2_April2007-full.pdf            development: business-as-usual, competitiveness-oriented,
                                                                                      http://www.espon.eu                                                                                      cohesion-oriented

    2007 Land Use; economy Spatial Visions and Scenarios                              European Spatial     English    EU                       2015 and http://www.interact-                 Overview of future-oriented studies produced for ESPON and
                           – Thematic Study of INTERREG                               Planning Observatory                                         2030 eu.net/download/application/pdf/1194 INTERREG.
                           and ESPON activities                                       Network (ESPON)                                              2100 712
2005 Marine           A Sustainable Future for the          Benoit G. and       UNEP – Regional        English,   Mediterranean       2025 Executive summary:                    Blue Plan, Sophia Antipolis, France. For sale: Earthscan, London
     environment;     Mediterranean -The Blue Plan’s        Comeau A. (eds)     Activity Centre – Blue French     region                   http://www.planbleu.org/red/pdf/red_r £58.50 (hardback). French title: «Méditerranée : les perspectives
     environment &    Environment and Development                               Plan                                                       esume_uk.pdf                          du Plan Bleu sur l‟environnement et le développement».
     sustainability   Outlook                                                   http://www.planbleu.o

2004 Politics         Europe in 2020                                            US National           English     EU                  2020 http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2020_200 Available: Workshop Summary, 2020 Scenarios, Globalisation or
                                                                                Intelligence Council                                       4_04_28_intro.html                  Regionalisation, Governance in Europe in 2020, Social Identity,
                                                                                http://www.dni.gov/ni                                                                          and In What Ways Will Democracy Trends Help Shape Economic
                                                                                c/NIC_home.html                                                                                & Foreighn Policies of the EU Out to the Year 2020?

2005 Politics         Four Future scenarios for the     Langer J.               Europe2020         English        EU                  2020 http://www.euractiv.com/en/ Article.
                      European Union - Reflections from                         www.europe2020.org                                           future-eu/scenarios-europe-
                      the perspective of ―Path                                                                                               2010/article-110290
                      Dependence‖                                                                                                            http://www.europe2020.org/

2002 Technology &     Assessing the environmental           Phylipsen D. et al. IPTS                  English     EU                  2020 http://ftp.jrc.es/eur20515en.pdf         Report EUR 20515 EN.
     Innovation;      potential of clean material                               http://www.jrc.es/                                    2030
     Environment &    technologies

2003 Technology &     The Future of Manufacturing in        Geyer et al.        IPTS                  English     EU                  2020 http://ftp.jrc.es/eur20705en.pdf         Technical Report Series. Report EUR 20705 EN.
     Innovation;      Europe 2015-2020: The challenge                           http://www.jrc.es/
     Environment &    for sustainability scenario report

2004 Technology &     Environment-Related Structural        Christidis et al.   IPTS                  English     EU10 + Bulgaria +   2030 http://ftp.jrc.es/eur21184en.pdf         Technical Report Series. EUR 21184 EN. IPTS, DG JRS,
     Innovation;      Indicators in New Member States                           http://www.jrc.es/                Romania                                                           European Commission.
     Environment &    and Candidate Countries: A
     sustainability   Prospective Analysis

2004 Technology &     The Future Impact of ICTs on          Erdmann et al.      IPTS                  English     EU                  2020 http://ftp.jrc.es/eur21384en.pdf         Technical Report Series. Report EUR 21384 EN.
     Innovation;      Environmental Sustainability                              http://www.jrc.es/
     Environment &

2002 Transport        EXPEDITE Expert -system based      Jong G.C. et al.       RAND Europe and English           EU                  2020 http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph For European Commission (DG Transport and Energy).
                      Predictions of Demand for Internal                        partners                                                   _reports/MR1673/MR1673.pdf         Modelling of future transport demand, based on a reference
                      Transport in Europe                                       http://www.rand.org/                                                                          scenario plus alternative policy scenarios.

2004 Transport        TEN-STAC: Scenarios, Traffic                              TEN-STAC               English    EU                  2020                                           For EC. Mainly projections of EU transport + econ. dev. with intro
                                                                                                                                             Part I:
                      Forecasts, and Analyses of                                http://www.nea.nl/ten-                                                                               of Trans-Euro Networks (baseline and two "scenarios"); some
                      Corridors on the Trans-European                           stac/                                                                                                environmental impact estimates.
                      Transport Network
                                                                                                                                             Part II:
2005 Transport        Determining factors in traffic    Verron H. et al.        Umwelt Bundes Amt English         EU                  2020 http://www.umweltdaten.de/publikatio Umwelt Bundes Amt, Germany.
                      growth - Developments, causes and                         http://www.umweltbu                                        nen/fpdf-l/2990.pdf
                      possible future directions                                ndesamt.de/

2005 Transport;       Hybrids for road transport: Status Christidis P. et al. IPTS                    English     EU                  2020 http://www.univ-                      Technical Report EUR 21743 EN.
     environment &    and prospects of hybrid technology (eds)                http://www.jrc.es/                                           poitiers.fr/recherche/documents/pcrdt
     sustainability   and the regeneration of energy in                                                                                    7/hybrid.pdf
                      road vehicles.
Ongoing Transport;          TREMOVE                                                   European              English    EU              2020 http://www.tremove.org/                   A policy assessment model to study the effects of different
        environment &                                                                 Commission (DG                                                                                 transport and environment policies on the transport sector for all
        sustainability                                                                Environment)                                                                                   European countries. Model for transportation projections.
                                                                                      http://ec.europa.eu/d                                                                          Currently model 2.40.

 2006 + Transport;          TRIAS: Sustainability Impact                              European              English    EU              2030 http://www.isi.fhg.de/trias/index.htm    Will link existing models (POLES, VACLAV, ASTRA, etc.) to
        environment &       Assessment of Strategies                                  Commission, JRC                                                                                make projections of transport and environment, focusing on
        sustainability      Integrating Transport, Technology                                                                                                                        hydrogen and biofuels. Final report to be published early 2007.
                            and Energy Scenarios

   2005 Transport; Land use Territorial Impact of EU Transport                        European Spatial     English     EU              2021 http://www.espon.eu/mmp/online/web ESPON Project 2.1.1. Looks at policies to 2010, with scenarios to
                            and TEN Policies                                          Planning Observatory                                  site/content/projects/243/239/file_374/ 2021. Also has "historical" alternative scenarios.
                                                                                      Network (ESPON)                                       fr-2.1.1_revised.pdf

   2002 Transport; marine   Future Transport of Goods:                                Copenhagen Institute English     Baltic region   2015 http://www.iff.dk/doc/GB_Scandlines. Copenhagen Institute of Futures Studies, Copenhagen
        environment         Scenarios for Europe’s future                             of Futures Studies                                    pdf
                            transport of goods in the Baltic                          http://www.iff.dk/en/

   2003 Transport;          Trends in Vehicle and Fuel         Pelkmans L. and IPTS                         English    EU              2020 ftp://ftp.jrc.es/pub/EURdoc/eur20748e Final deliverable from IPTS project on vehicle and fuel
        technology &        Technologies: Scenarios for Future Christidis P. (eds) http://www.jrc.es/                                       n.pdf                                 technologies IPTS Technical Report Series, EUR 20748 EN.
        innovation          Trends
   2003 Transport;          Dynamics of the introduction of       Christidis P.,      IPTS                  English    EU              2030 ftp://ftp.jrc.es/pub/EURdoc/eur20762e Report EUR 20762 EN.
        technology &        new passenger car technologies:       Hidalgo I. and      http://www.jrc.es/                                    n.pdf
        innovation          The IPTS transport technologies       Soria A.

   2004 Transport;          Vision 2020 and Challenges                                European Road          English   EU              2020 http://www.ertrac.org/pdf/publications/ Recommendations for EU transport research. ERTRAC
        technology &                                                                  Transport Research                                    ertrac_brochure_june2004.pdf
        innovation                                                                    Advisory Council

   2005 Transport;          GALILEO impacts on road               Schmidt M. et al.   IPTS                  English    EU              2020 ftp://ftp.jrc.es/pub/EURdoc/eur21865e Technical Report EUR 21865 EN.
        technology &        transport                                                 http://www.jrc.es/                                    n.pdf
   2006 Transport;          Intelligent Infrastructure Futures:   Curry A. et al.     UK Government:        English    UK focus        2055 http://www.foresight.gov.uk/Previous_ Axes: 1. acceptance/rejection of "intelligent infrastructure"; 2.
        technology &        The Scenarios - Towards 2055                              Foresight Prog.,                                      Projects/Intelligent_Infrastructure_Sys high/low impact transport.
        innovation                                                                    Office of Science and                                 tems/Reports_and_Publications/Intelli
                                                                                      Technology                                            gent_Infrastructure_Futures/the_scen
                                                                                      www.foresight.gov.uk                                  arios_2055.pdf

   2003 Waste               Techno-Economic Outlook on            Bodo P. et al .     IPTS                  English    EU10            2020 http://ftp.jrc.es/eur21205en.pdf         Technical Report Series. EUR 21205 EN.
                            Waste Indicators in Enlargement                           http://www.jrc.es/
                            Countries (TEO WASTE)
   2003 Waste               Scenarios of household waste          Tukker et al.       IPTS                  English    EU              2020 http://ftp.jrc.es/eur20771en.pdf         Technical Report Series. EUR 20771 EN.
                            generation in 2020                                        http://www.jrc.es/
4. SE Europe studies

Year        Thematic               Title                               Authors           Organisation            Language      Geographic            Time              Source URL                                          Information
              focus                                                                                                             coverage             Scale
Regional and multi-country studies
2006      Climate Change      Future Climate Change Policy in the                       Ecologic and others English         Acceding &                   2012 http://www.ecologic-                Workshop in Sofia, 14 and 15 June 2006. Background
                              Accession and Candidate Countries:                        http://www.ecologic-                Candidate                    2050 events.de/climate2012/sofia/docu    Information. Overview of the impacts of climate change and
                              Looking beyond 2012                                       events.de                           Countries                         ments/1871_backgroundpaperws_       significant aspects of EU climate policies. Analysis of economic
                                                                                                                                                              sofia_0806506_FINAL.pdf             opportunities & challenges of future CC policies for the Accession
                                                                                                                                                                                                  and Candidate Countries.

2002      Economy             Economic Performance and             Totev S.                                     English     Southeastern                                                          Various economic indicators are used to present a picture of
                              Structure of Southeastern European                                                            European                                                              economic evolution and structural adjustment over time. The
                              Countries--Albania, Bulgaria, FYR of                                                          Countries                                                             article analyses the differences between the structure of
                              Macedonia, and Greece                                                                                                                                               manufacturing of the SE European countries & the other Central
                                                                                                                                                                                                  European countries, as well as certain EU countries.Possible
                                                                                                                                                                                                  future scenarios and prospects (incl. policy implications) of SEE
                                                                                                                                                                                                  and the region are analysed in the light of current problems.
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Eastern European Economics Vol. 40, Issue 6, pp. 51-83

2006?     Economy             The Business Forecast Reports:                            Business Monitor    English         Bosnia and                   2010 http://www.businessmonitor.com/b Economic, financial, macroeconomic and political analysis:
                              Emerging Europe                                           International                       Herzegovina, Bulgaria,            usinessforecasts/europe.html     reports for individual countries
                                                                                        http://www.business                 Croatia, Macedonia,
                                                                                        monitor.com                         Romania, Serbia,

2006?     Economy; politics   Country Forecasts                                         Economist               English     Bulgaria. Romania.           2010 http://store.eiu.com/product/19300 Five-year political, policy and economic forecast for each country
                                                                                        Intelligence Unit                   Turkey                            00193.html?ref=featuredProductH plus a long-term outlook section. For sale.
                                                                                        http://store.eiu.com/                                                 ome
2005      Economy; tourism    Long-term prospects for the                               Economist               English     Western Balkans (and         2025                                     Mr Laza Kekic, Long-term prospects for the European transition
                              European transition economies and                         Intelligence Unit                   Central Europe)                                                       economies and some implications for the tourism industry,
                              some implications for the tourism                         ww.eiu.com                                                                                                Economic Intelligence Unit. Presentation to the UN World
                              industry                                                                                                                                                            Tourism Organization‟s European Meeting on Tourism: A Tool for
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sustainable Development in Transition Economies on 20 June

2006?     Economy; tourism    BMI's Tourism Reports: Bulgaria,                          Business Monitor   English          Bulgaria, Croatia,           2010 http://www.businessmonitor.com/to Five - Year Tourism Outlooks for each country - structure, size
                              Croatia, Romania, Turkey                                  International                       Romania, Turkey                   urism/                            and value of sector. For sale.
2003      Energy              Review of electricity supply and      Atur V. and         World Bank           English        Albania, Bosnia and          2012                                     This paper reviews the power sector demand-supply balance in
                              demand in Southeast Europe            Kennedy D.          http://www.worldbank                Herzegovina, Bulgaria,                                                Southeastern Europe (SEE), for 1991-2001 and forecasts the
                                                                                        .org/                               Croatia, Macedonia,                                                   balance to 2012.
                                                                                                                            Romania, and Serbia
                                                                                                                            and Montenegro
                                                                                                                            (including Kosovo)

2007      Energy              Potential of solar electricity        Marcel Šúri M.,                             English     EU member states &                                                    Three scenarios are explored within this paper: (1) the expected
                              generation in the European Union      Hulda T.A.,                                             candidate countries                                                   average annual electricity generation of a „standard‟ 1 kWp grid-
                              member states and candidate           Dunlopa E.D., and                                                                                                             connected PV system; (2) the theoretical potential of PV
                              countries                             Ossenbrinka H.A.                                                                                                              electricity generation; (3) determination of required installed
                                                                                                                                                                                                  capacity for each country to supply 1% of the national electricity
                                                                                                                                                                                                  consumption from PV. Solar Energy (Article in Press), Elsevier
2006?     Energy            BMI's Oil and Gas Reports                                  Business Monitor   English      Bulgaria, Croatia,              2010 http://www.businessmonitor.com/oi 5-Year Industry Forecasts for each country. For sale.
                                                                                       International                   Romania, Turkey                      lgas/
2005      Environment &     Sustainable development after         Blinc R., Zidanšek                        English    Slovenia                                                                    The development of SE European countries and some of their
          Sustainability    Johannesburg and Iraq: The global     A. and Šlaus, I.                                     and                                                                         neighbours is presented through several socio-economic
                            situation and the cases of Slovenia                                                        Croatia                                                                     indicators. The second part of the contribution is connected with
                            and Croatia                                                                                                                                                            the implications for Croatia and Slovenia. Energy Policy, Vol. 33,
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Issue 7/May, pp. 839-855

2007      Environment &     Carpathian Environmental Outlook                           UNEP (GRID-           English   Czech Republic,                         http://www.grid.unep.ch/activities/a Forthcoming. The study will present three scenarios for the future
          Sustainability                                                               Geneva and ROE)                 Hungary, Poland,                        ssessment/KEO/index.php              of the Carpathian mountain region.
                                                                                       http://www.grid.unep.           Romania, Serbia &
                                                                                       ch/index.php                    Montenegro, the Slovak
                                                                                                                       Republic and Ukraine

2001      Politics          Facing the Future: The Balkans to     Bugajski J.          Center for European English     Balkans                         2010 http://aei.pitt.edu/211/01/dp_c86_b Discussion Paper C86, ZEI, Bonn. Offers three scenarios.
                            the Year 2010                                              Integration Studies                                                  ugajski.pdf

2005      Politics          Do All Roads Lead to Brussels?         Massari, M.                              English    Croatia, Serbia-       http://www.bus                                       The article examines the main factors that have affected the
                            Analysis of the Different Trajectories                                                     Montenegro and Bosnia- inessmonitor.c                                       prospects of Euro-Atlantic integration for Croatia, Serbia-
                            of Croatia, Serbia-Montenegro and                                                          Herzegovina            om/autos/                                            Montenegro, and Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH). It presents 2
                            Bosnia-Herzegovina                                                                                                                                                     scenarios for the region: 1) rapid integration and 2) delayed
                                                                                                                                                                                                   progress. Cambridge Review of International Affairs , Vol.18,
                                                                                                                                                                                                   No.2 / July, pp. 259 – 273 .

2006?     Transport; industry Automotives Reports                                      Business Monitor    English     Bulgaria, Croatia,              2010                                        For each country, 5-year forecasts to end-2010 for key industry
                                                                                       International                   Romania, Turkey                                                             indicators. For sale.

2002      Climate Change    First National Communication of       Islami B. et al.     Ministry of           English   Allbania                        2020 http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc Contains GHG projections to 2020 and climate change impact
                            Albania to the UN FCCC                                     Environment of                                                  2100 /albnc1.pdf                          assessments to 2100.
                                                                                       Albania, UNDP

2005      Health            Albania: Out of Blessed Isolation     Valbona S.                                English    Allbania                        2015 http://www.ceeol.com/aspx/issued HIV incidence in Albania is currently low, but estimates indicate
                                                                                                                                                            etails.aspx?issueid=07828ff7-5ae7- this might change, forecasting up to 10-15,000 cases by 2015.
                                                                                                                                                            44e8-af30-                         Paper available at the Central and Eastern European Online
                                                                                                                                                            4f686cd519a3&articleId=eed9c4d4- Library (EEOL), Transition Online , Issue (11/14/2005).

Bosnia and Herzegovina
2002?     Demography        Migration flows from Southeast        Kulenovic S. and                          English    Southeast Europe                        http://www.ersa.org/ersaconfs/ersa The article presents estimations of expected migration flows.
                            Europe in the last decade of the 20th Ibreljic I.                                          Bosnia & Herzegovina                    02/cd-rom/papers/145.pdf           42nd ERSA Congress August 27th – 31st, Dortmund, Germany.
                            century (with a special reflection on
                            Bosnia and Herzegovina)
2004        Environment &    Bosnia and Herzegovina Human       Marshall R. et al.       UNDP Bosnia &        English, Bosnian BH        2015 http://www.undp.ba/download.aspx Includes forecasts for the implementation of the MDGs in the
            Sustainability   Development Report/ Millennium                              Herzegovina                                          ?id=106                          country. Download page: http://www.undp.ba/index.aspx?PID=14
                             Development Goals 2003: Where Will                          http://www.undp.ba
                             I be in 2015?

2000        Politcs          Anticipatory anthropology and world Dobbert M.L.                                 English         BH         2050                                       The article discusses the peace issue of genocide and presents
                             peace: a view from 2050                                                                                                                                some possible peace futures. Dobbert, M.L. 2000, Anticipatory
                                                                                                                                                                                    anthropology and world peace: a view from 2050. Futures , Vol.
                                                                                                                                                                                    32, Issue 8/I26Oct, pp. 793-807.

2002        Agriculture      Agricultural policy options              Mishev, P.,                             English         Bulgaria   2011 http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/ Includes a section on “Scenarios & main assumptions”. Article:
                             distinguishing a subsistence sub-        Ivanova, N.,                                                            wpawuwpco/0409003.htm              Chapter 8 in G. Mergos (ed.) (2002) EU Enlargement and the
                             sector in Bulgaria                       Kostov, P                                                                                                  CAP: A Quantitative Analysis for Slovenia and Bulgaria, Kiel:
                                                                                                                                                                                 Wissenschaftsverlag Vauk, 210 p.

2005        Agriculture      Bulgarskoto zemedelie v ES –             Popov R.           The Institute of     Bulgarian       Bulgaria   2035                                       Opportunities and challenges to Bulgarian agriculture after EU
                             vazmojnosti za razvitie (Bulgarian                          Economics of the                                                                           accession, as well as long- and medium-term aspects of
                             Agriculture in the EU - Development                         Bulgarian Academy                                                                          agricultural development, and forecasts of demand for a 30-year
                             Opportunities and Limitations)                              of Science                                                                                 period. For sale 3€. Economic Thought Magazine, Issue 4/2005,
                                                                                         http://www.bas.bg/                                                                         p. 25-48. http://www.ceeol.com/

       2005 Agriculture;     Forsait prognoza za razvitieto na                           Applied Research   Bulgarian         Bulgaria   2015 http://www.arc.online.bg/fileSrc.ph Wine production and Buffalo Breeding were among the sectors
            technology &     biotehnologiite v Bulgaria v sektorite                      and Communications                                   p?id=1293                           subject to pilot foresight. Scenarios for 2015 illustrate alternative
            innovation       lozarstvo I vinoproizvodstvo;                               Fund                                                                                     futures.
                             bivolovadstvo (Foresight of the
                             development of biotechnology in
                             Bulgaria in sectors wine-growing and
                             producing; buffalo breeding)

2004        Air              A fine-resolution modelling study of Zlatevi Z. and                              English         Bulgaria   2010 http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=affiche Two versions of the Danish Eulerian Model (DEM) with
                             pollution levels in Bulgaria. Part 1: Syrakov D.                                                                 N&cpsidt=16146926                    resolutions of 50 and 10 km on the Europe domain have been
                             SO[X] and NO[X] pollution.                                                                                                                            used to study SOx/NOx levels in Bulgaria, the influence of
                                                                                                                                                                                   European sources and changes in pollution levels to 2010. Three
                                                                                                                                                                                   scenarios were run. International journal of Environment and
                                                                                                                                                                                   Pollution , ISSN 0957-4352.

2006        Climate Change   Fourth National Communication on         Stoytcheva D. et   Republic of Bulgaria, English        Bulgaria   2020 http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Sophia. GHG
                             Climate Change - Bulgaria                al.                Ministry of                                          /bgrnc4.pdf                          projections are elaborated taking in consideration the trends of
                                                                                         Environment and                                                                           key macroeconomic, technological, demographic and other
                                                                                         Water                                                                                     indicators. Three scenarios for GHG emission projections until
                                                                                         http://www.moew.gov                                                                       2020: “without measures” scenario; “with measures” scenario;
                                                                                         ernment.bg/index_e.h                                                                      “with additional measures” scenario.
2003   Demography   Povuzrastova plodovitost na jenite          Hristov E.,            Center for Population Bulgarian    Bulgaria   2020 http://cl.bas.bg/about-central-       The study analyses the period 1961-2020 and considers future
                    na regionalno nivo prez 1993-2020           National Statistical   Studies - Bulgarian                                library/Library%20Branch%20Syst       development till 2020. The main factors that influenced the
                    (Aged-wise fertility of women on            Institute              Academy of Science                                 em/social-sciences/library-at-the-    negative population growth are decrease of the birth-rate,
                    regional level in the period 1993 – 2020)   http://www.nsi.bg/I    http://cps.bas.bg/engl                             institute-of-center-for-population-   increase of the mortality rate, migration. The study analyses the
                                                                ndex_e.htm             ish/index-en.html                                  studies                               women fertility on the basis of age, family status, education,
                                                                                                                                                                                ethnic affiliation, etc. 3 forecasts have been developed: realistic
                                                                                                                                                                                (slight decrease till 2010 and increase till 2020); minimal
                                                                                                                                                                                (decrease till 2020), maximum (increase till 2020).

2003   Demography   Demografski tendencii I prognozi na         Kotzeva T. and         Center for Population Bulgarian    Bulgaria   2020 http://cl.bas.bg/about-central-       The study analyses the current negative demographic trends -
                    naselenieto na Republika Bulgaria do        team (elaborated       Studies -Bulgarian                                 library/Library%20Branch%20Syst       decrease of the number of the population, due to the decrease of
                    2020 (Demographic trends and                for the Ministry of    Academy of Science                                 em/social-sciences/library-at-the-    the birth-rate, increase of the mortality-rate, migration, ageing of
                    forecasts of the Bulgarian population to    defense)               http://cps.bas.bg/engl                             institute-of-center-for-population-   the population; main factors which influence the demographic
                    2020)                                                              ish/index-en.html                                  studies                               trends are also considered. According to the forecast, the
                                                                                                                                                                                tendency for decrease of the population will continue till 2020.

2006   Demography   Prognoza za razvitieto na                   Hristov E. and         Center for Population Bulgarian    Bulgaria   2020 http://cl.bas.bg/about-central-       The projection is based on gender and age. The mortality-rate,
                    naselenieto (Projection for population      Gavazki I.             Studies - Bulgarian                                library/Library%20Branch%20Syst       fertility-rate and, migration are the indicators used for the forecast
                    development)                                                       Academy of Science                                 em/social-sciences/library-at-the-    (data from 1985-2005 is used). According to the forecast after
                                                                                       http://cps.bas.bg/engl                             institute-of-center-for-population-   2020 demographic stability can be expected. Three scenarios are
                                                                                       ish/index-en.html                                  studies                               developed – pessimistic (population below 5 mln), realistic, which
                                                                                                                                                                                is approved by the government (population over 5.6 mln and
                                                                                                                                                                                decrease of the negative growth) – and optimistic (population
                                                                                                                                                                                around 6.3 mln and growth after 2045.)

2002   Economy      Srednosnochna prognoza za                   Rangelova R.           Institute of           Bulgarian   Bulgaria   2010                                       Medium-term forecasts for Bulgaria's economic growth based
                    ikonomicheskija rastej v Bulgaria                                  Economics,                                                                               mainly on regression analysis are produced. Two alternative
                    (Medium-term forecast of economic                                  Bulgarian Academy                                                                        scenarios for Bulgaria's accession to the EU are calculated: one
                    growth in Bulgaria)                                                of Science                                                                               that assumes accession in 2007, and another – in 2010 (the
                                                                                       http://www.iki.bas.bg/                                                                   status quo scenario). Economic Studies Magazine , Issue 1/2002,
                                                                                                                                                                                p. 27. For sale €3. Two alternative scenarios for Bulgaria's
                                                                                                                                                                                accession to the EU are calculated: accession in 2007 vs.
                                                                                                                                                                                accession not before 2010. http://www.ceeol.com/

2003   Economy      Strategija za dogonvashto              Angelov I. et al            Institute of           Bulgarian   Bulgaria   2020 http://www.iki.bas.bg/english/CVita The main purpose of the catch-up development is improvement
                    ikonomichesko razvitie do 2020                                     Economics,                                         /angelov/prognosis2020/001Conte of quality of life, through GDP and a system of economical, social
                    godina (Strategy for catch up economic                             Bulgarian Academy                                  nts.doc                             and environmental factors. Two development models are
                    development)                                                       of Science &                                                                           considered: backward and catch-up economical development.
                                                                                       Friedrich Ebert                                                                        Six scenarios for annual growth per person are developed (till
                                                                                       Foundation                                                                             2020 and 2050). The authors recommend the scenarios with
                                                                                       http://www.iki.bas.bg/                                                                 annual growth 5.0-5.5% till 2020. Thus till 2020 Bulgaria may
                                                                                       www.fes.de/                                                                            reach 50-55% of the estimated level of GDP per person in the EU
                                                                                                                                                                              for 2020.
2005   Economy          Ikonomicheskite predizvikatelstva –                       Administration of the Bulgarian   Bulgaria   2010 http://www.president.bg/pdf/Doklad- The report covers the following issues: Macroeconomic
                        Bulgaria 2010 (Economic challenges –                      President of Republic                             bK.pdf                              development, establishment of competitive, knowledge-based
                        Bulgaria 2010)                                            of Bulgaria                                                                           economy, social aspects of the economic development.

2005   Economy          Prognoza za osnovnite                                     Agency for economic Bulgarian     Bulgaria   2008 http://www.mi.government.bg/ind/d Forecast for main macro economic indicators of Bulgaria for the
                        makroikonomicheski pokazateli na                          analysis and                                      oc_konk/Forecast2006.pdf          period 2005-2008.
                        Republika Bulgaria v perioda 2005-                        forecasting
                        2008 i dopuskanija, pri koito tja e                       http://www.aeaf.minfi
                        razrabotena (Forecast for main macro                      n.bg/index_en.php
                        economic indicators of Bulgaria for

2005   Economy          Nasoki za Ikonomicheskoto razvitie                        Center for Economic Bulgarian     Bulgaria   2010 http://www.ced.bg/publications.php The study reviews economic development and stability through
                        na Bulgaria 2005-2010 (Trends for                         Development                                       ?year=&TypeID=&page=2              2010 and provides recommendations on policy actions. It covers
                        Bulgaria‟s economic development                           http://www.ced.bg/?n                                                                 macroeconomic policies, budget, currency and capital market,
                        (2005-2010)                                               ewlang=en                                                                            education and science, SMEs and other factors.

2005   Economy          Prognoza za ikonomicheskata            Todorov T.         University for      Bulgarian     Bulgaria   2015 http://alternativi.unwe.acad.bg/inde This study forecasts labour market developments to 2015. It
                        aktivnost, zaetostta I bezrabotizata –                    National and World                                x.php?nid=2&hid=28                   presents three scenarios that take into account the evolution the
                        scenario za razvitieto na trudovija                       Economy                                                                                consequences of Bulgaria‟s accession to the EU and
                        pazar v Bulgaria zaperioda 2005-2015                      http://www.unwe.aca                                                                    implementation of current government programs for employment.
                        (Forecast for economic activity,                          d.bg/?lang=en
                        employment and unemployment –
                        scenarios for labour market
                        development in Bulgaria 2005-2015)

2007   Economy          Catching-up economic development                          Institute of          English     Bulgaria   2020 http://www.iki.bas.bg/english/CVita Presentation of the key findings of the study with the same
                        of Bulgaria - strategy and realities.                     Economics,                                        /angelov/No071e.htm                 heading to a public discussion on 26 March 2007 in the Institute
                                                                                  Bulgarian Academy                                                                     of Economics, Sofia, March 2007 .
                                                                                  of Science

2001   Energy           Bulgaria – pregled Energetika I         Zahir S. et al.   World Bank           Bulgarian,   Bulgaria   2015 http://siteresources.worldbank.org/I Contains projections and future scenarios. Executive Summary in
                        Okolna sreda (Energy and                                  http://www.worldbank English                      NTBULGARIA/Resources/EER_S English
                        environment review)                                       .org/                                             ummary_eng.pdf                       http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTBULGARIA/Resources/EE
2005   Energy           Predizvikatelstva I vazmojnosti za    Shterev N. and      University for      Bulgarian     Bulgaria   2015 http://alternativi.unwe.acad.bg/br5/   Department of Industrial business and entrepreneurship. This
                        izgrajdane na novi proizvodstveni     Blagoev D.          National and World                                06%20-                                 analysis focuses on current issues, connected to the Bulgarian
                        energiini moshtnosty (Challenges and                      Economy                                           %20N.Shterev%20D.Blagoev-              Energy sector. Forecast for production and use of electrical
                        opportunities for construction of new                     http://www.unwe.aca                               statiya.doc.                           energy for the period till 2015 have been done.
                        generation energy capacities)                             d.bg/?lang=en

2004   Environment &    Nacionalen doklad za sastojanieto I                       Executive            Bulgarian    Bulgaria   2010 http://nfp-                         Report includes: long term projections (till 2080) for climate
       Sustainability   opazvaneto na okolnata sreda v                            Environmental                                2080 bg.eionet.eu.int/eea/bg/publicat/20 change in Bulgaria; trends of air pollutant emissions and
                        republika Bulgaria (Annual report for                     Agency                                            04-1/index.htm                      international commitments for 2010.
                        the State of Environment in Bulgaria
                        (Green Book)
2002      Land use         A scenario of development of land       Rissina, M. &                                English    Bulgaria                                              The article describes the disorganisation & decapitalization
                           relationships and land market in        Dimitrov, D.                                                                                                  resulting from land & agrarian reforms in Bulgaria. It considers 3
                           Bulgaria                                                                                                                                              land market scenarios, namely 1) preserving the status quo; 2)
                                                                                                                                                                                 introducing land taxes only; and 3) using a sustainable package
                                                                                                                                                                                 of laws & economic regulations. Agricultural Economics and
                                                                                                                                                                                 Management , Vol. 47, No. 3, pp. 45-51 (Publisher: National
                                                                                                                                                                                 Centre for Agrarian Sciences in Bulgaria). For sale.

2005      Technology &     Innovation.BG - Measuring the         Petrov M. and      Center for the Study English           Bulgaria          http://www.csd.bg/fileSrc.php?id=1 The report has three main objectives: - overview of economic
          Innovation       Innovation Potential of the Bulgarian Stefanov R. (Eds). of Democracy                                             732                                development and capital and technology supply; - a description
                           Economy                                                  www.csd.bg/                                                                                 of the current institutional structure of the national innovation
                                                                                                                                                                                system; - analysis of possibilities for the system‟s development.

2003      Waste            Hospital Waste management and           Spasov, A.             National Centre of    English    Bulgaria   2013 http://prague2003.fsu.edu/content/ Three scenarios for the period till 2013 are developed.
                           health-ecological risk prophylaxis in                          Hygiene, Medical                                 pdf/094.pdf
                           Bulgaria                                                       Ecology and Nutrition

2004      Water; climate   Water resource impacts of climate       Chang et al                                  English    Bulgaria   2025                                       The study assesses the regional impact of climate change on
          change           change in southwestern Bulgaria                                                                            2085                                       runoff in a mountainous region of southwestern Bulgaria, and
                                                                                                                                                                                 provides 2 climate change scenarios. GeoJournal , Vol. 57, No. 3
                                                                                                                                                                                 / July, pp. 159-168

2004      Climate Change   Projections of Greenhouse Gas           EKONERG –              Ministry of          English     Croatia    2020 http://unfccc.int/files/national_repor Ekonerg, Zagreb.
                           Emissions                               Energy Research        Environmental                               2030 ts/annex_i_natcom/submitted_natc
                                                                   and Env.               Protection, Physical                             om/application/pdf/cro_ghg_project
                                                                   Protection Institute   Planning and                                     ions_1990_2020_croatia.pdf
                                                                   (Atmospheric           Construction
                                                                   Protection             http://www.mzopu.hr/

2006      Climate Change   Second, Third and Fourth                                       Ministry of          English     Croatia    2020 http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc Contains GHG projections to 2020 and climate change impact
                           Communication of the Republic of                               Environmental                               2100 /hrvnc4.pdf                          assessments to 2100.
                           Croatia to the UNFCCC                                          Protection, Physical
                                                                                          Planning and

2003      Demography       Pension Reform in Croatia               Anusic Z., O‟Keefe The World Bank       English         Croatia    2040 http://siteresources.worldbank.org/I Social Protection Discussion Paper Series No. 0304, Social
                                                                   P., and            http://www.worldbank                                 NTCROATIA/Resources/Pension_ Protection Unit, Human Development Network, The World Bank.
                                                                   Madzarevic-        .org/                                                Reform_in_Croatia.pdf                The paper describes the design of the recently reformed pension
                                                                   Sujster S.                                                                                                   system and includes a chapter on Forecasts for the future.

2001      Economy          Toward a Long-Term Strategy of     Dubravnko                   Institute of Public    English   Croatia    2010 http://www.croatia-             Occasional Paper No. 11.
                           Economic Development of Croatia: Mihaljek                      Finance                                          lobbying.org/pdf/Economic%20Str
                           Where to Begin, What to Do and How                             http://www.ijf.hr/eng/                           ategy%20(HR).pdf
                           to do it?
2000        Energy              Energy Sector in Croatia after the   GRANIC and           World Energy        English         Croatia      2010 http://www.worldenergy.org/wec-
                                year 2000                            associates; Energy   Council                                               geis/publications/default/tech_pap
                                                                     Institute "HRVOJE    www.worldenergy.org                                   ers/17th_congress/2_3_26.asp
                                                                     POZAR"               /

2004        Energy              Perspectives of renewable energy     Vrhovcak M.B.,                            English        Croatia           http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/Xplore/lo Proceedings of the 12th IEEE Mediterranean , Vol.3, pp. 1033-
                                use in Croatia                       Tomsic Z. and                                                              gin.jsp?url=/iel5/9339/29677/01348 1036, (This paper appears in: Electrotechnical Conference,
                                                                     Kovacevic T.                                                               230.pdf                              MELECON 2004, Proc.). Available on IEEE Xplore.
2006        Energy              Sustainability assessment of       Lipolseak M.,                               English        Croatia                                                Energy Vol. 31, No. 13, pp. 1940-1948. The paper presents 3
                                cogeneration sector development in Afgan N. H., Duie                                                                                                 scenarios of Croatian co-generation sector future development.
                                Croatia                            N., and Carvalho                                                                                                  For each of them environmental, social and economic
                                                                   M. G.                                                                                                             sustainability indicators are defined and calculated.

2004        Politics; economy   The Future of Croatia                Zoran M.             South East Europe    English        Croatia           http://www.ceeol.com/aspx/getdoc South-East Europe Review S. 65 – 74.
                                                                                          Review                                                ument.aspx?logid=5&id=451D2AC

Macedonia (FYRO)
2003        Climate Change      Macedonia's First National                                Ministry of         English         Macedonia    2030 http://www.unfccc.org.mk/documen Contains GHG projections to 2030 and climate change impact
                                Communication under the UN FCCC                           Environment and                                  2100 ts/FNC_ENG.pdf                   assessments to 2100.
                                                                                          Physical Planning

2000        Demography          Процесот на демогравско              Gerasimovski                              Macedonian     Macedonia                                              The study projects the ageing of the population in Macedonia due
                                стареење во Македонија (The          Donco and                                                                                                       to the ongoing decline of the birth rate. Economic development
                                process of demographic ageing in     Simovski Apostol                                                                                                year III, n.1 (published by the Macedonian Economic Instititute)
2004/2005   Demography          Демогравски промени и стареење Grozdanovski T.            Law faculty ”Justinian Macedonian   Macedonia                                              The study analyses the current status and changes in the age
                                на населението во Македонија       and Nospalovska        I” University st.Cyril                                                                     and sex structure of the population of Republic of Macedonia by
                                (Demographic changes and ageing of K.                     and Methodius                                                                              the sex, age and NUTS classification. Population ageing, for
                                the population in Macedonia)                                                                                                                         example, exhibits different intensity in the eight regions. The
                                                                                                                                                                                     study concludes that changes in age and sex structure need to be
                                                                                                                                                                                     considered in the development of economic and social policies.
                                                                                                                                                                                     Yearbook of the Law Faculty ”Justinian I”.

2004        Economy             Privatization and Foreign           Popov D.                                   English        Montenegro                                             The paper analyses the privatization process and the role of
                                investments: The Case of Serbia and                                                                                                                  foreign investments in countries in transition. It uses the case of
                                Montenegro                                                                                                                                           Serbia and Montenegro and suggests two fundamental
                                                                                                                                                                                     scenarios. Transition Studies Review , Vol. 11, No. 3

2006        Energy              Potential of Renewable Energy                             Ministry for Economic English       Montenegro   2025 http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/refsys/ht Powerpoint presentation
                                Resources                                                 Development                                           ml/Workshop%20RES%20Dubrov
                                                                                          http://www.vlada.cg.y                                 nik%202006.htm
2005      Environment &         Montenegro – Issues and Challenges                       Regional             English      Montenegro    2014 http://www.rec.org/REC/Programs/ Focuses on strategies, plans and programmes. Powerpoint
          Sustainability        in Environmental Reforms                                 Environmental                                        REREP/docs/9th_meeting/country presentation.
                                                                                         Reconstruction                                       _presentations/montenegro.pdf

2005      Environment &         National Strategy for Sustainable                        UNDP                   English    Montenegro    2010                                     Includes a five-year political, policy and economic forecast plus a
          Sustainability        Development (International Meeting                       www.undp.org/                                                                            long-term outlook section, including projections of key
                                on the final draft)                                                                                                                               macroeconomic indicators.

2004      Agriculture; water;   Water resources for agriculture in a Rosenzweig et al                           English    Romania                                                This article reports on methods of linking climate change
          climate change        changing climate: international case                                                                                                              scenarios with hydrologic, agricultural, and planning models to
                                studies                                                                                                                                           study water availability for agriculture under changing climate
                                                                                                                                                                                  conditions, to estimate changes in ecosystem services, and to
                                                                                                                                                                                  evaluate adaptation strategies for the water resources and
                                                                                                                                                                                  agriculture sectors. Global Environmental Change , Vol. 14, No.
                                                                                                                                                                                  4, pp. 345-360, Pergamon Press (Publisher).

2006      Climate Change        Fourth National Communication on                         Ministry of          English      Romania       2020 http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc Contains GHG projections to 2020 and climate change impact
                                Climate Change                                           Environment &                                  2050+ /romnc4.pdf                          assessments to 2050 (in some cases beyond).

2004      climate change;       Potential climate change impacts on Cuculeanu V., and National Institute of     English    Romania       2075                                     The article assess potential climate changes in Romania up to
          water                 water resources in Romania          Balteanu D.       Meteorology and                                                                             2075. Global Change Newsletter , No. 60, pp. 18-21, International
                                                                                      Hydrology                                                                                   Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), Bucharest, Romania.

2005      Economy               Creşterea Economică Şi Ocuparea                          National Prognosis     Romanian   Romania       2013 http://www.cnp.ro/site/user/reposit Presents a single forecast for Romania's economic indicators to
                                Până În Anul 2013 (Economic and                          Commission                                           ory/7f68a351df298f4f7798.pdf        2013.
                                occupational growth prognosis –                          www.cnp.ro

2006      Economy               Evoluţia Ocupaţiilor Pe Piaţa Forţei                     Ministry of Labour,  Romanian     Romania       2010 http://www.mmssf.ro/website/ro/ra Analyzes the potential transformation of the Romanian labour
                                De Muncă Din România În                                  the Family and Equal                                 poarte_studii/221206studiu.pdf    market after EU accession.
                                Perspectiva Anului 2010 (Prognosis                       Opportunities,
                                Of The Romanian Labour Force In                          Romanian
                                2010)                                                    Government

2005?     Technology &          Background papers on: 1. the sector                      FORETECH                English   Romania              http://foretech.online.bg/docs/back Two foresight pilots developed under ForeTech project,
          Innovation            of agriculture, food and drinks                          http://foretech.online.                                ground_papers_BIO_ro.pdf            supported by the Fifth Framework Programme (FP5) - EU.
                                industry and biotechnologies; 2.                         bg/romania.php                                         http://foretech.online.bg/docs/Back
                                information and communication                                                                                   ground_papers_ICT_ro.pdf
                                technologies sector
2005?    Technology &     Future Prospects in                   Zamfirescu C.B.,                         English   Romania   2015 http://fistera.jrc.es/docs/Future%20 Provides future IST scenarios, Siiu, Romania.
         Innovation       Romania:Scenarios for the             Filip F.G. and                                                    Prospects%20in%20Romania.pdf
                          Development of the Knowledge          Bărbat B.E.
                          Society in Romania

2005     Climate Change   Regional climate change scenarios                         METU, ITU,           English   Turkey                                             Project funded in part by UNDP. Report not found. Background
                          for Turkey                                               TÜBİTAK-MAM,                                                                       information available on:
                                                                                   UNDP                                                                               http://www.undp.org.tr/Gozlem2.aspx?WebSayfaNo=95
2007     Climate Change   First National Communication of                          Ministry of          English    Turkey    2020 http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc Contains GHG projections to 2020 and climate change impact
                          Turkey on Climate Change                                 Environment and                           2100 /turnc1.pdf                          assessments to 2050 (in some cases beyond).

2004     Demography       Growth and Immigration Scenarios      Erzan R., Kuzubas Centre for European English      Turkey    2030 http://www.econ.boun.edu.tr/cee/in This study has been presented at the conference “Immigration
                          for Turkey and the EU                 U. and Yildiz N.  Policy Studies                                  dex_files/migrationerzan.pdf       Issues in EU-Turkish Relations: Determinants of Immigration and
                                                                                  (CEPS)                                                                             Integration” held at Bogazici University, 8-9 October 2004.
2004     Economy          The Future of Turkey EU Trade         Ülgen S. and       CEPS                  English   Turkey           http://shop.ceps.be/BookDetail.php EU-Turkey Working Papers No:5
                          Relations, Deepening vs Widening      Zahariadis Y.      http://www.ceps.be                               ?item_id=1147
2005     Economy          Turkey 2020: on course for            Jaeger M.          Deutsche Bank      English      Turkey    2020 http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/ Deutsche Bank Research, Deutsche Bank, Frankfurt am Main.
                          convergence                                              Research                                       CIB_INTERNET_EN-
                                                                                   www.dbresearch.com                             PROD/PROD0000000000182762.
2002     Energy           Current Status and Future Directions Özgener O. and                            English   Turkey                                             Energy Sources , Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and
                          of Wind Energy Applications in       Hepbaşlı A.                                                                                            Environmental Effects, Vol. 24, Issue 12/Dec, pp. 1117 - 1129.

2002     Energy           Forecasting the primary energy        Ediger, V.S and                          English   Turkey    2010                                     The study estimates the energy demand to be around 130 million
                          demand in Turkey and analysis of      Tatlıdil H.                                                                                           toe in 2010. Energy Conversion and Management, Vol. 43, Issue
                          cyclic patterns                                                                                                                             4/Mar, pp. 473-487

2003     Energy           Assessing the potential of renewable Evrendilek F. and                         English   Turkey                                             Renewable Energy Vol. 28, Issue 15/Dec, pp. 2303-2315.
                          energy sources in Turkey             Ertekin C.

2004     Energy           Turkey’s Energy Prospects in the EU- Işık Y.             CEPS                  English   Turkey    2020                                     EU-Turkey Working Papers No:9/Oct
                          Turkey Context                                           http://www.ceps.be

2004     Energy           The Role of Renewables in Future      Kaygusuz K.                              English   Turkey                                             Energy Sources , Vol. 26, No.12/Oct, pp. 1131-1140(10).
                          Energy Directions of Turkey

2004     Energy           Present Status and Future Prospects Harun Kemal                                English   Turkey                                             Energy Sources , Vol. 26, No. 9/Jul, pp. 829-840(12).
                          of Hydroelectric Energy in Turkey   Öztürk

2004     Energy           Geothermal energy in Turkey: the      Kaygusuz K. and                          English   Turkey                                             Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews Vol. 8, Issue
                          sustainable Future                    Kaygusuz A                                                                                            6/Dec, pp. 545-563.

2004     Energy           Energy from Renewable Sources in Demirbaş A. and                               English   Turkey                                             Energy Sources , Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and
                          Turkey: Status and Future Direction Bakış R.                                                                                                Environmental Effects, Vol. 26, Issue 5/Apr, pp. 473 - 484.
2005   Energy               Genetic algorithm approach to       Haldenbilen S. and                         English   Turkey    2020                                   The Genetic Algorithm Transport Energy Demand Estimation
                            estimate transport energy demand in Ceylan H.                                                                                             (GATEDE) model is developed using population, gross domestic
                            Turkey                                                                                                                                    product and vehicle-km. The model plans the sectoral energy
                                                                                                                                                                      demand of Turkey until 2020. Energy Policy Vol. 33, Issue 1/Jan,
                                                                                                                                                                      pp. 89-98

2007   Energy               Energy production, consumption,      Çanka Kiliç F. and                        English   Turkey    2010                                   Estimates the cost for needed energy between the years 2000 &
                            policies, and recent developments in Kaya D.                                                                                              2010. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews , Vol. 11,
                            Turkey                                                                                                                                    Issue 6/Aug, pp. 1312-1320

2003   Politics             Turkey and the World in Twenty-Five Kuniholm, B.                               English   Turkey    2028                                   The South Atlantic Quarterly , Vol. 102, No. 2/3, Spring/Summer
                            Years: Thinking about the Future                                                                                                          2003, pp. 471-489. Duke University Press.

2004   Politics             Turkey as Regional Hegemon—2014: Erickson E.                                   English   Turkey    2014                                   Turkish Studies , Vol. 5, No. 3/Autumn, pp.25–45 (21).
                            Strategic Implications for the United

2005   Politics             The future of Turkey in the European Güney A.                                  English   Turkey                                           Futures 37(4): 303-316
2006   Politics             Islamism, Kemalism and the Future      Mellon J. G.                            English   Turkey                                           Totalitarian Movements & Political Religions , Vol. 7, No. 1/Mar,
                            of Turkey                                                                                                                                 pp. 67-81

2005   Politics             Future of Turkey – EU relations: a     Tekin A.                                English   Turkey                                           Futures 37(4): 287-302
                            civilisational discourse.

2004   Technology &         Vision 2023: Strategies for Science                        TUBITAK (Scientific Turkish   Turkey    2023                                   Prepared using expert panels, two-round Delphi survey.
       Innovation           and Technology                                             and Technological                                                              Environment one of 12 priority areas. Ongoing project.
                                                                                       Council of Turkey)

2006   Water; agriculture   Changes in Summer Irrigated Crop       Özdoğan M.,                             English   Turkey                                           Water Resources Management , Vol. 20, No. 3/Jun, pp. 467-488
                            Area and Water Use in Southeastern     Woodcock C.,                                                                                       (22)
                            Turkey from 1993 to 2002:              Salvucci G. and
                            Implications for Current and Future    Demir H.
                            Water Resources

2005   Water; coastal       Gediz River Basin                                          SMART: Sustainable English    Turkey   2010? http://www.ess.co.at/SMART/CAS Case study with simulation of three futures (business as usual,
       zones                                                                           Management of                                ES/TR/turkey.html              pessimistic, optimistic), Environmental Software and Services
                                                                                       Scarce Resources in                                                         (EES).
                                                                                       the Coastal Zone

2006   Water; coastal       Application of a participatory       Ker Rault P. et al.                       English   Turkey    2025                                   Presents a methodology for building scenarios using stakeholder
       zones                foresight methodology at river basin                                                                                                      participation; briefly presents three scenarios for the two case
                            scale in Jordan and Turkey                                                                                                                study basins (one in Turkey and one in Jordan). IAH conference
                                                                                                                                                                      on Integrated Water Resources Management and Challenges of
                                                                                                                                                                      the Sustainable Development. Marrakech, May 23-25, 2006.
5. EECCA Studies

  Year    Thematic                         Title                    Authors         Organisation             Language      Geographic     Time         Source URL                                     Information
            focus                                                                                                           coverage      Scale
EECCA-wide studies
      2004 Economy          Eurasia 2020: Global Trends 2020                     National Intelligence     English      Eurasia               2020 Summary Report:          The report from the Eurasia workshop for the National
                            Regional Report                                      Council                                                           http://www.dni.gov/nic/P Intelligence Council‟s Global Trends 2020, Budapest, Hungary,
                                                                                 http://www.dni.gov/nic/NI                                         DF_GIF_2020_Support/2 April 25-27 2004.
                                                                                 C_home.html                                                       004_04_25_papers/eura

      2001 Energy           CIS Energy                                           Energy Research          English       EECCA countries       2020 http://www.energo21.co Present and future energy development of CIS countries up to
                                                                                 Institute of the Russian                                          m/reports/fsu_outlook.ht 2020. Includes data on main macroeconomic indicators, energy
                                                                                 Academy of Sciences                                               ml                       demand structure, and prospects of CIS energy markets
                                                                                 www.ras.ru/                                                                                development by countries: Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus,
                                                                                 http://www.energo21.co                                                                     Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan,
                                                                                 m/index.html                                                                               Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.

      2005 Energy           The Future of Caspian Petroleum                      RPI, Inc www.rpi-         English      Russia                     http://www.rpi-              For sale: $995
                            Offshore Industry                                    inc.com/                                                          inc.com/products.html

      2000 Climate Change   Azerbaijan: Initial National                         UNDP/GEF www.un-        English        Azerbaijan            2050 http://unfccc.int/resource/ Initial National Communication of Azerbaijan Republic on Climate
                            Communication on Climate Change                      az.org/UNDP/                                                      docs/natc/azenc1add1.p Change - PHASE 2: Capacity Improvement Activities on Climate
                                                                                 Azerbaijan Republic                                               df                          Change in the Priority Sectors of Economy of Azerbaijan.
                                                                                 gove.html State

      2002 Environment &    Caucasus Environment Outlook                         UNEP/GRID          Tbilisi English     Caucasus              2032 http://www.grid.unep.ch/
           Sustainability   (CEO)                                                http://www.grida.no/                                              product/publication/CEO-

      2004 Politics         Armenia 2020 Scenarios Book                          Armenia 2020            English        Armenia               2020 http://www.armenia2020. Armenia 2020, Yerevan.
                                                                                 http://www.armenia2020.                                           org/index.php/en/publicat
                                                                                 org/                                                              ions/books
Central Asia
      2000 Agriculture      Food Policy Reforms in Central        Babu S. and    International Food Policy English      Central Asia          2020 http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/
                            Asia: setting the research priorities Tashmatov A.   Research Institute                                                books/fprca.pdf
                                                                  (eds)          (IFPRI)
2001 Agriculture      Food security in Central Asia:    Babu S. and Rhoe International Food Policy English           Central Asia      2020 http://www.unctad.org/inf Paper prepared for the UNCTAD Regional Workshop on “Food
                      Economic Opportunities, Policy    V.               Research Institure                                                 ocomm/diversification/al Security and Agricultural Diversification in Central Asia.” Almaty,
                      Constraints and Future Challenges                  (IFPRI)                                                            maty/babu.PDF             Kazakhstan, 12-13 November 2001.

2000 Climate Change   Turkmenistan: Initial National                           UNDP/GEO                 English      Turkmenistan      2050 http://unfccc.int/resource/
                      Communication on Climate Change                          http://www.undptkm.org/                                      docs/natc/tkmnc1.pdf
                                                                               Ministry of Nature

2002 Climate Change   The First National Communication Makhmadaliev            Ministry for Nature        English    Tajikistan        2050 http://unfccc.int/resource/
                      of the Republic of Tajikistan under B.U., Novikov V.V.   Protection                                                   docs/natc/tajnc1add.pdf
                      the UNFCCC                          and Kayumov A.K.     http://enrin.grida.no/html
                                                          (eds)                s/tadjik/soe2/eng/htm/mi

2003 Climate Change   First National Communication of                          Ministry of Ecology and   English     Kyrgyz Republic   2050 http://unfccc.int/resource/
                      the Kyrgyz Republic under the                            Emergencies                                                  docs/natc/kyrnc1.pdf
                      UNFCCC                                                   www.mecd.gov.kg/

2002 Climate Change   Tajikistan 2002. Vital maps and                          UNEP/GRID Arendal         English     Tajikistan        2050 http://enrin.grida.no/html
                      graphics on climate change.                              www.grida.no/                                                s/tadjik/vitalgraphics/eng/
                      Climate change trends and                                                                                             html/climate.htm

2006 Economy          Central Asia’s Economy: Mapping     Dowling J.M. and                               English     Central Asia      2015 http://www.silkroadstudie The article provides in its prospect to 2015, decsribes 3 possible
                      Future Prospects to 2015            Wignaraja G.                                                                      s.org/new/docs/Silkroadp scenarios: 1) business as usual; 2)closing the gap; 3) falling
                                                                                                                                            apers/0607Wignaraja.pdf behind. Silk Road Paper, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk
                                                                                                                                                                      Road Studies Program, A Joint Transatlantic Research and
                                                                                                                                                                      Policy Center, Washington.

2005 Economy          Strategicheskaya matritsa          Ageev A.I. and        Institute of Economic     Russian     Kazakhstan                                           Moscow: Institute of Economic Strategies. Strategic Matrix
                      Kazahstana [Kazakhstan’s Strategic Kuroedov B.V.         Strategies                                                                                 Series, Issue 1. Summary not available. For sale.
                      Matrix]                                                  www.inesnet.ru/ENG/

2005 Economy          Kyrgyzstan 2025. Strategies and     M.N. Omarov,         International Institute for Russian   Kyrgyz Republic   2020 http://www.fundeh.org/do This 2005 volume takes a broad look at political, economic,
                      Development Scenarios.              editor               Strategic Studies under                                 2025 c_files/Kyrgyzstan_2025. social and environmental futures of Kyrgyzstan by the year 2020.
                                                                               President of the Kyrgyz                                      pdf                      A few papers included in the book use scenarios. For example,
                                                                               Republic and the                                                                      four political scenarios for Kyrgyzstan are presented:
                                                                               Friedrich Ebert                                                                       disintegration of the country, islamisation, establishment of a
                                                                               Foundation                                                                            liberal civil democratic state and “Cyclic development”, with
                                                                               (http://www.fes.uz/Count                                                              democracy to be restored by 2025 after years of internal conflicts
                                                                               ry/kg.htm)                                                                            and dictatorship.

2002 Energy           The Future of Central Asian Gas                          RPI http://www.rpi-       English     Central Asia            http://www.rpi-              RPI, Los Angeles. For sale.
                                                                               inc.com/index.html                                            inc.com/sform.htm
      2006 Energy           Central Asia: A major emerging        Dorian J.P.                                  English   Central Asia                    2015                               Energy Policy , Vol. 34, Issue 5/Mar, pp. 544-555
                            energy player in the 21st century

      2007 Energy           Electricity demand in Kazakhstan      Atakhanova Z. and                            English   Kazakhstan                                                         Includes forecasts of demand. Energy Policy, Volume 35, Issue
                                                                  Howie P.                                                                                                                  7, July 2007, Pages 3729-3743

      2004 Energy; water    Strengthening Co-operation for                            UNECE/UNESCAP           English    Central Asia                    2020 http://www.unece.org/sp Special Programme for the Economies of Central Asia. Project
                            Rational and Efficient Use of Water                       http://www.unece.org/                                                   eca/energy/effuse_en1.p Working Group on Energy and Water Resources. United Nations.
                            and Energy Resources in Central                           http://www.unescap.org/                                                 df

      2004 Environment &    Millennium Development Goals for                          The World Bank           English   Europe & Central Asia                  http://siteresources.world World Bank Working Paper No. 33. Washington.
           Sustainability   Health in Europe and Central Asia -                       www.worldbank.org/                                                        bank.org/INTECA/Resou
                            Relevance and Policy Implications                                                                                                   rces/MDGHealth.pdf

      2005 Environment &    Central Asia Human Development                            UNDP Regional Bureau English       Central Asia                    2025 http://europeandcis.undp. Central Asia Human Development Report. Bratislava
           Sustainability   Report 2005: Bringing down                                for Europe and the                                                      org/?wspc=CAHDR2005
                            barriers: regional cooperation for                        Commonwealth of
                            human development and human                               Independent States

      2000 Water            Water-related Vision for the Aral                         UNESCO                   English   Central Asia +                  2025 http://www.aralvision.une
                            Sea Basin for the year 2025                               http://www.unesco.org/             Afghanistan & Iran                   sco.kz/main_e.htm

      2002 Water            Aral Sea Basin Case Study                                 The Dialogue on Water    English   Central Asia                    2020                               UNESCO-IHE. Delft, The Netherlands
                                                                                      and Climate
      2003 Water            Irrigation in Central Asia: Social,   Bucknall et al.     The World Bank           English   Central Asia                     2010 http://siteresources.world The World Bank, Washington.
                            Economic and Environmental                                                                                           2015 for some bank.org/ECAEXT/Reso
                            Considerations                                                                                                             analysis urces/publications/Irrigati

Eastern Europe excluding Russia (i.e. Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine)
      2000 Climate Change   First National Communication of                           Ministry of Environment English    Moldova                         2010 http://unfccc.int/resource/
                            the Republic of Moldova under the                         and Territorial                                                         docs/natc/moldnc2.pdf
                            UNFCCC                                                    Development
     2007 Climate Change       Belarus: Second, Third, Fourth                           Ministry of Natural      English    Belarus           2020 http://unfccc.int/resource/ Contains GHG projections and climate change impact
                               National Communication on                                Resources and                                         2050 docs/natc/blrnc02.pdf       assessments to 2020. Minsk.
                               Climate Change                                           Environmental Protection                              2070

     2003 Economy              Belarus: Reform Scenarios           Vainiene R. et al.   Stefan Batory             English   Belarus           2020 http://www.batory.org.pl/ Stefan Batory Foundation, Warsaw.
                                                                   (eds)                Foundation                                                 doc/wybor_a.pdf
     2005 Economy              Ukraine: The long road West         Schularick M.        Deutsche Bank           English     Ukraine           2025 http://www.jfki.fu-       Deutsche Bank, Frankfurt am Main.
                                                                                        Research                                                   berlin.de/faculty/economi
                                                                                        http://www.dbresearch.c                                    cs/persons/schularick/ukr
                                                                                        om                                                         aine.pdf

     2005 Economy              Strategicheskaya matritsa Belarusi Ageev et al.           Institute of Economic   Russian    Belarus                                          Strategic Matrix Series, Issue 2, Institute of Economic Strategies,
                               [Belarus’s Strategic Matrix]                             Strategies                                                                           Moscow. Summary not available. For sale.
     2005 Economy              Strategicheskaya matritsa Ukrainy   Ageev et al.          Institute of Economic   Russian    Ukraine                                          Strategic Matrix Series, Issue 3. Summary not available. For
                               [Ukraine’s Strategic Matrix]                             Strategies                                                                           sale.

     2004 Energy               Ukraine: Outlook to 2050            Geletukha G. et      INFORSE-EUROPE The English          Ukraine           2050 http://www.rea.org.ua/pdf The INFORSE Vision2050 for Ukraine: focuses on renewable
                                                                   al.                  International Network for                                  /vis50e.pdf               energy.
                                                                                        Sustainable Energy

     2002 Politics             Alternative scenarios for Ukraine   van Zon H.                                    English    Ukraine                                          Provides three scenarios for medium term: state-centred;
                                                                                                                                                                             feudalism/mercantalist; and liberalisation. Futures , Vol. 34,
                                                                                                                                                                             No.5/Jun, pp. 401-416 (16).
Russian Federation
     2003 Air; energy          Economic Growth, Fuel Mix and Air Golub A. et al.        Environmental defense English       Russia            2010 http://www.ed.org/docum Environmental defense, Washington.
                               Quality in Russia                                        http://www.environmental                                   ents/2878_fuel-
                                                                                        defense.org/                                               mix_05_view.pdf

     2006 Climate Change       Forth National Communication on     Israel Yu. et al.    Federal Service for      English    Russia    2020         http://unfccc.int/resource/ Contains GHG projections to 2020 and climate change impact
                               Climate Change                                           Hydrometeorology                              2050         docs/natc/rusnc4r.pdf       assessments to 2050.
     2003 Climate Change;      Will Climate Change Affect Food     Alcamo J., Dronin Center for Environmental English       Russia    2070s        http://www.usf.uni-        Summary Report of the International Project on Global
          agriculture; water   and Water Security in Russia?       N., Endejan M.,   Systems Research                                              kassel.de/usf/archiv/vortr Environmental Change and its Threat to Food and Water Security
                                                                   Golubev G. and    www.usf.uni-kassel.de/                                        aege/datum.en.htm          in Russia. Climate scenarios in relation to agriculture and water
                                                                   Kirilenko A                                                                                                resources. WZ Report A 0302. Center for Environmental Systems
                                                                                                                                                                              Reseach, University Kassel, Kassel, Germany.
2005 Climate Change;   Vliyanie globalnyh izmeneniy       Pegov S.A. et al.    Institute of Systemic   Russian   Russia                                           Institute of Systemic Analysis. Summary not available.
     economy           klimata na funktsionirovanie                            Analysis
                       ekonomiki i zdorovya naseleniya
                       Rossii [Global climate change
                       impact on Russia's economy and
                       public health]

2001 Demography        Dire Demographics: Population      DaVanzo J. and       RAND www.rand.org       English   Russia   2020/2040 http://rand.org/pubs/mon Review of recent past and presentation of selected trends to
                       Trends in the Russian Federation   Grammich C.                                                               ograph_reports/2007/MR 2020 and 2040.
2000 Demography        Replacement Migration: Is It A     Vishnevsky A.        UN Population Division English    Russia               http://www.un.org/esa/po Expert Group Meeting on Policy Responses to Population Ageing
                       Solution for Russia?                                    www.un.org/esa/populati                                pulation/publications/pop and Population Decline. Population Division
                                                                               on/unpop.htm                                           decline/vishnevsky.pdf Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations
                                                                                                                                                                Secretariat. UN/POP/PRA/2000/14
                                                                                                                                                                15 August 2000

2004 Demography        Demograficheskie perspektivy      Andreev E.M. and                              Russian   Russia        2100 http://www.ecfor.ru/index Six projections of Russia‟s demographic future (total population
                       Rossii do 2100 goda [Russia’s     Vishnevsky A.G.                                                            .php?pid=epub             and age distribution) are developed based on differences in birth
                       demographic perspectives to 2100]                                                                                                      rate, mortality and migration. The projections for Russia‟s
                                                                                                                                                              population in 2100 vary between 64 and 144 million (vs. 145
                                                                                                                                                              million in 200). Article in: Naselenie Rossii 2002. Moscow,
                                                                                                                                                              Universitet, pp. 173-195.

2001 Economy           Russia: Facing the Future.         Stulberg A.N.        Carnegie Corporation    English   Russia               http://www.carnegie.org/ Carnegie Corporation, New York.
                                                                               (New York)                                             pdf/russia.pdf
2005 Economy           Big Oil Playground, Russian Bear   Brunstad B. et al.                           English   Russia        2015                               EBURON Academic Publishers, Delft. For sale.
                       Preserve or European Periphery?
                       The Russian Barents Sea Region
                       towards 2015

2005 Economy           Dolgosrochnye trendy rossiyskoy    Belousov A.R.        Centre for              Russian   Russia        2020                               Contains four scenarios of Russia's economic development:
                       ekonomiki: Scenarii                                     Macroeconomic Analysis                                                             Super-Industrial Modernisation, Burst into Globalisation,
                       ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossii                        & Short-Term                                                                       Economic Isolation and Energy Autism, with the first scenario
                       do 2020 goda [The Russian Long-                         Forecasting (Moscow)                                                               (focus on boosting strategic energy, transport, high-tech and
                       Term Economic Trends: Russia’s                          http://www.forecast.ru/                                                            agriculture projects through investment and modernisation) being
                       Economic Scenarios to 2020]                                                                                                                the most favourable one.

2005 Economy           Kaliningrad 2020: its future       Liuhto K. (ed.)      Pan-European Institute, English   Russia        2020 http://kaliningradexpert.or
                       competitiveness and role in the                         Turku.                                               g/stuff/pubs/Kaliningrad
                       Baltic Sea economic region                              www.tukkk.fi/pei/e/                                  %202020.pdf
2005 Economy             Rossiya i mir v XXI veke [Russia    Kuzyk B.N.         Institute of Economic    Russian    Russia        2100                            The book presents four scenarios for Russia‟s position on the
                         and the World in the 21st Century].                    Strategies                                                                        world arena are provided - “Hard Globalisation”, “Soft
                                                                                www.inesnet.ru/ENG/                                                               Globalisation”; “Growing Regionalisation”; and the “Chaos
                                                                                                                                                                  scenario” - and four paths for Russia's international engagement:
                                                                                                                                                                  submission, confrontation, isolation or revival.

2003 Economy             Russia 2010: it’s a Russian bear,   Beck R. and        Deutsche Bank           English     Russia        2010 http://www.dbresearch.d Deutsche Bank, Frankfurt am Main
                         not a bull!                         Schularick M.      Research                                               e/PROD/999/PROD0000
                                                                                http://www.dbresearch.c                                000000053432.pdf

2005 Economy             Russian Prospects: Political and    Copenhagen           Copenhagen Institute of English   Russia               http://www.lib.tsinghua.e Members Report No 1.
                         Economic Scenarios                  Institute of Futures Futures Studies                                        du.cn/find/guide/russia.p
                                                             Studies              http://www.cifs.dk/en/                                 df
2004 Economy; industry Political and Economic Outlook for Azrael et al.         RAND                     English    Russia   2008/2020 http://www.rand.org/pubs Political and economic trends to 2008; outlook for Russian
                       Russia and the Future of the                             http://www.rand.org                                    /working_papers/2004/R automobile market to 2020.
                       Automotive Industry                                                                                             AND_WR145.pdf

2000 Economy; politics   Russia Initiative: Reports of the                      Carnegie Corporation    English     Russia        2050 http://www.carnegie.org/ The report includes: Project on Problems of Engagement:
                         Four Task Forces                                       (New York)                                             pdf/rimaster.pdf         Russia‟s Security, Economic and Banking Crises; The Challenge
                                                                                http://www.carnegie.org                                                         of Russian Reform at a Time of Uncertainty; The Russia
                                                                                                                                                                Initiative: Social Cohesion; and The Russia Initiative: Russian
                                                                                                                                                                State-Building: The Regional Dimension.

2005 Economy; politics   Buduschee Rossii: inertsionnoe      Ivanter V.V. and   Institute of Economic    Russian    Russia        2025 http://www.kuzyk.ru/book   This volume presents an exploratory scenario and a normative
                         razvitie ili innovatsionniy proryv? Kuzyk B.N.         Strategies                                             s/?PHPSESSID=ddae25        scenario to explore the futures of Russia‟s socio-economic
                         [Russia’s future: Inert development                    www.inesnet.ru/ENG/                                    c51777a7e26a496e37c1       development: inertial development scenario and an innovation
                         or innovative breakthrough?]                                                                                  92e599                     and investment scenario. The two scenarios were developed
                                                                                                                                                                  using input/output models. Institute of Economic Strategies,

2005 Economy; politics   Russia 2050: Strategy of Innovative Kuzyk B.N. and     Institute of Economic    English    Russia        2050 http://www.kuzyk.ru/allbo An English volume closely linked to the Russian study, Russia's
                         Breakthrough                        Yakovets Y.V.      Strategies                                             oks/russia_2050/          future: Inert development of innovative breakthrough? Institute of
                                                                                www.inesnet.ru/ENG/                                                              Economic Strategies, Moscow.

2001 Energy              Russian Energy Prices Long-Term    ERI RAS experts. Energy Research           English      Russia        2030 http://www.energo21.co RAS, Moscow. For sale
                         Forecast                                            Institute of the Russian                                  m/reports/prices.html
                                                                             Academy of Sciences
2001 Energy              The Future of Russian Electricity:                  Energy Research           English      Russia        2020 http://www.energo21.co RAS, Moscow. For sale ($935)
                         The Essential Guide to the Russian                  Institute of the RAS                                      m/reports/power_future.h
                         Electricity Market                                  http://www.ras.ru/index.a                                 tml
2001 Energy              The Future of Russian Energy –                         Energy Research           English   Russia        2020 http://www.energo21.co RAS, Moscow. For sale ($935)
                         Short Outlook: Main trends,                            Institute of the RAS                                   m/reports/energy_future.
                         problems, possibilities                                http://www.ras.ru/index.a                              html
2001 Energy            The Future of Russian Gas: The                           Energy Research           English   Russia            2020 http://www.energo21.co RAS, Moscow. For sale ($865)
                       Essential Guide to the Russian Gas                       Institute of the RAS                                       m/reports/gas_future.htm
                       Market                                                   http://www.ras.ru/index.a                                  l

2002 Energy            Outlook "Russian Coal Industry"                          Energy Research           English   Russia            2020 http://www.energo21.co RAS, Moscow. For sale
                                                                                Institute of the RAS                                       m/reports/coal_future.ht
                                                                                http://www.ras.ru/index.a                                  ml

2004 Energy            The Energy Dimension in Russian       Gordon R.G.        Rice University           English   Russia            2020 http://www.rice.edu/ener The James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy of Rice
                       Global Strategy: Russian Oil                             www.rice.edu/                                              gy/publications/russiangl University.
                       Futures                                                                                                             obalstrategy.html

2004 Energy            The Future of Oil Exports from                           RPI, Inc www.rpi-         English   Russia                 http://www.rpi-            For sale ($800)
                       Russia                                                   inc.com/                                                   inc.com/products.html

2004 Energy            The Future of the Russian LPG                            RPI, Inc www.rpi-         English   Russia                 http://www.rpi-            For sale ($3000)
                       Market                                                   inc.com/                                                   inc.com/products.html

2005 Energy            The Future of Russian Refining and                       RPI, Inc www.rpi-         English   Russia            2014 http://www.rpi-            For sale: $6000
                       Exports of Oil Products                                  inc.com/                                                   inc.com/products.html

2006 Energy            The Future of Russia's Offshore Oil                      RPI, Inc www.rpi-         English   Russia            2014 http://www.rpi-            For sale: $1925
                       and Gas Industry                                         inc.com/                                                   inc.com/products.html

2003 Energy; air     Environmental Impacts and               Podkovalnikov S.                             English   Russia            2020 http://www.nautilus.org/a Paper presented at the Third Workshop on Power Grid
                     Benefits of Regional Power Grid                                                                                       rchives/energy/           Interconnection in Northeast Asia, Vladivostok, Russia, 30
                     Interconnection for the Russian Far                                                                                   grid/2003Workshop/Podk September-3 October 2003.
                     East: Generation and Fuel-Supply-                                                                                     ovalnikov_final.pdf
                     Related Impacts
2005 Energy; Climate Global Long-term Energy-Economy-        Kryazhimskiy A., IIASA                       English   Global / Russia   2100 http://www.dauphine.fr/c International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,
     Change; Economy Environment Scenarios with an           Minullin Y. and    http://www.iiasa.ac.at/                                    gemp/Manifestations/MI Austria.
                     Emphasis on Russia                      Schrattenholzer L.                                                            EC/IIASA%20paper.pdf
2005 Environment &     Sovremennya ekologicheskaya         Kochurov B.I.,    Institute of Economic     Russian   Russia                                   Moscow, Institute of Economic Strategies. Summary not
     Sustainability    obstanovka v Rossii I               Antipova A.V. and Strategies                                                                   available. For sale
                       vozmozhnosti ee prognozirovaniya Kostovska S.K.       www.inesnet.ru/ENG/
                       [Current environmental situation in
                       Russia and Possibilities of its

2005 Environment &     Russia in 2015: Development Goals Bobylev S.N. and UNDP Russia                  English   Russia   2015 http://rbec.undp.ru/nhdr2 National Human Development Report. Moscow. Some scenario
     Sustainability;   and Policy Priorities             Alexandrova AL. http://www.undp.ru                                    005eng/01-                considerations with respect to HIV/AIDS epidemic, transition to
     health                                              (eds.)                                                                authors_list.pdf          sustainable development and Millenium Development Goals.
                                                                                                                                                         UNDP, Russia.
2003 Forestry          Russian Federation Forest Sector                       UNECE/FAO                English   Russia   2020 http://www.unece.org/tra Geneva Timber and Forest Discussion Paper 27, Geneva.
                       Outlook Study                                          http://www.unece.org                             de/timber/docs/dp/dp-     ECE/TIM/DP/27
                                                                              http://www.fao.org                               27.pdf

2001 Health            Scenarios for Russia – Health Care, Twigg J.L.         Club 2015                English   Russia   2015 http://www.club2015.ru/F Scenarios for Russia Project, Club 2015, Moscow.
                       2015                                                   http://www.club2015.ru                           ileDownload.asp?FileID=

2004 Health            A model of social policy costs of   Misikhina S.,      International Labour     English   Russia   2050 http://www.ilo.org/public/ ILO, Geneva
                       HIV/AIDS in the Russian             Pokrovsky V.,      Organization                                     english/protection/trav/ai
                       Federation.                         Mashkilleyson N.   www.ilo.org/aids                                 ds/publ/rpa2.pdf
                                                           and Pomazkin D.
2004 Health            Annex I: Modelling the              Sharp S.           UNDP www.undp.org/       English   Russia   2045 http://rbec.undp.org/hiv/fil Annex I in "Reversing the Epidemic - Facts and Policy Options:
                       Macroeconomic Implications of a                                                                         es/HIV%20AIDS%20Ann HIV/AIDS in Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of
                       Generalised AIDS Epidemic in the                                                                        ex%201.pdf                   Independent States". UNDP, Bratislava, pp. 85-91.
                       Russian Federation.

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