The realities and opportunities of
The realities and opportunities of
climate change
climate change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC
The balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on
global climate. 2nd Assessment Report, 1996.
There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the
last 50 years is attributable to human activity. 3rd Assessment Report 2001
Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-
20th century is very likely [>90% probability] due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. 4th Assessment Report 2007
S. Mulkey
June 2007
The problem: greenhouse gases absorb and radiate
heat to the lower atmosphere.
Relative importance
Greenhouse
gases are higher
now than in over
850,000 years
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“The greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people.”
- Senator James Inhofe. 2005
“The global environmental effects of the industrial era will cast a
long shadow on future generations everywhere, for all time.”
David Orr. 2005. The Last Refuge.
Indicators of Good Science
• Peer reviewed - does not include
∅ Web sites from interest groups
∅ Blogs
∅ Op Eds
∅ Tabloids, talk shows, etc…
e.g., The Great Global Warming Swindle
• Replicated experiments
• Long term data
• Objective studies - not funded by interest groups
Translating Science into Policy
• Scientists must speak plain English!!
• Scientists are not experts outside of their field
• Science must never service a political agenda, e.g., “foreign oil”
• Policy-makers should agree to seek science-based solutions
• When uncertainty exists, policy should minimize the cost of error
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Designated authority to inform
and advise -
The National Academies
Adaptation of Science
Mitigation
June 2005
Observed warming
IPCC 4th Assessment:
“Warming of the
climate system is
unequivocal….
[there is] very high
confidence that the
globally averaged net
effect of human
activities since 1750
has been one of
warming”
Global temperatures rose 1.4 oF over the last 100 years.
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It is impossible to simulate the
observed temperature rise
without including anthropogenic
forcing
Models predicted the
effect of Pinatubo
Climate
models
• GCMs have passed most critical
tests
• GCMs need improvement in
modeling the tropics
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Projection: if
carbon dioxide
doubles relative to
pre-industrial
concentrations,
temperatures will
rise 3.5 - 8.0 oF
0C
Washington DC will change from
having about 35 days above 90o F
to over 85 days per year by 2050.
Projection: the
paradox of
increased
precipitation
and drought
1900-2002
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Changes in extreme events
Solid curve:
Today’s climate
Dashed curve:
Warmed climate
Solid: Change in
frequency
Dashed:
% Change
Projection:
extreme
weather
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Projection: devastation of coral reefs
2/3 of reefs severely damage by thermal stress since 1990
39 - 54% mortality
pH
CO32-
2006
CO2(aq)
After Wolf-Gladrow et al., 1999
Source: Mark Eakin, PhD, NOAA
Sea Surface Temperature
Projection:
increased
hurricane
intensity
(maybe)
Annual power dissipation (PDI) by
tropical cyclones compared to
August - October sea surface
temperature (SST). Emanuel [Nature,
2005; revised 2007]
• IPCC 4th assessment: Stronger
hurricanes “likely” - A weakened
Walker circulation may diminish this.
• It is not at all clear if climate change
will affect the frequency of hurricanes
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Florida vulnerability to
hurricanes & storm
surge
Storm surge - Tampa Bay
“will emerge as
[The effects of global warming]
if someone had subtly, but
progressively, loaded a pair of
Potential capital losses dice.” - Kerry Emanuel 2005
William D. Nordhaus. 2006. The Economics of Hurricanes in the United States.
NBER 12813, 47pp.
Stephen Mulkey 2007
Projection: decreasing terrestrial ice
When North America was colonized by Western Europeans, Glacier
National Park contained more than 120 glaciers. Presently there are 23
glaciers, and by 2030 there will be none (USGS).
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Projection:
decrease in
polar sea ice
The Northwest Passage will
become reality in the summer by
2050 at the latest.
Decreasing ice amplifies warming
Projection: sea level rise
4th assessment: 7 - 23
inches by 2100, excluding
effects of ice flow and
carbon cycle feedbacks.
Bottom line: 3 ft by 2100.
Bottom line: 3 ft by 2100.
.
Source: Rahmstorf et al. Science 2007, Figure redrawn by BBC
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Projection: amplification from defrosting the permafrost
• Official climate projections do
not include emissions from
melting permafrost.
• Because of this carbon release,
warming will be faster than
predicted. (Davidson & Janssens Nature 2006)
Business as usual: reasonable expectations by 2075
• Sea level at minimum 0.75 meters higher
• 200 million human ecological refugees - sea level rise & disasters
• Agricultural zones will shift up to 10o north in N. America
• Low crop yields & widespread hunger in developing world
• Up to 35% of existing biodiversity committed to extinction
• Loss of most coral reefs - ocean warming & acidification
• Increased infectious disease in tropics - 800 million with malaria
• Up to a third of the Amazon basin progressing to savanna
• Warmer, wetter, greater precipitation intensity, stronger dry periods
• 400 million people living with water shortage
• Global economic cost: up to 20% world GDP (by 2100; Stern report)
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Rapid climate change: tipping points
& uncertainties
• How fast will Greenland melt? When will it be committed to
melt down?
• What will be the Antarctic ice flow?
• What is the extent of amplification due to permafrost &
sea ice melting?
• Will the Atlantic conveyor belt slow down and stop?
Business as usual: projections for Florida through 2100
• Florida’s coastal cities will be forced to make expenditures for building seawalls
and flood control structures. Some areas could be abandoned.
• The rise in the temperatures will make Florida a less desirable place to live
and will cause increases in heat stroke, emerging infectious disease, and other
health problems.
• Florida will lose beachfront property and suffer much greater storm damage from
higher storm surges and more powerful hurricanes.
• Insurance costs will soar and insurance companies will refuse to provide
coverage in vulnerable areas.
• Agriculture in Florida may see a short term benefit but later will be hurt by
longer periods of drought.
• Coral bleaching from warming and more acidic sea water will devastate sport
and commercial fishing.
• Regional water shortages will result in increased rationing.
• Up to ??% of species committed to extinction - coastal habitats most affected.
Institute for Alternative Futures
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The long emergency of climate change
“We have three
choices -
mitigation,
adaptation,
suffering.”
and suffering.”
John Holdren, President AAAS
“Our response to climate change
will be like an intergenerational
banquet…
banquet….”
Andrew Revkin, Climate reporter for the NY Times
Future shock
NY Times 2006
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Another concern - the energy crisis
Two scenarios for
when world
consumption will
exceed production
US Petroleum
Consumption and
Production
Good news: energy and climate are
linked issues with a common solution
Wedges for
mitigation
“For every
complex
problem there
is an answer
that is clear,
simple, and
wrong.”
H. L. Mencken
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Emissions for
“business-as-
usual”
60% cut in
emissions by Mitigation -
2050
Can we do it?
Emissions
target
We need at
least 7 wedges
William Chameides
Responses among the states
GHG Emissions Targets Climate Action Plans Renewable Portfolios
GHG Reporting Registries Efficiency Standards Regional Climate Initiatives
The costs of climate change for Florida are possibly the highest of any state
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Initial strategy for Florida emissions mitigation
Greenhouse gas inventory
Climate action plan with emissions targets
Greenhouse gas reporting registry
State standards for energy production efficiency
Mandates and incentives for promoting solar & biofuels
Renewables portfolio for power generation
Appliance efficiency standards
Green building standards for state buildings
Market based incentives for compliance including cap-
and-trade and/or a carbon tax
$ Conservation and alternative energy markets will
create economic opportunity
Florida emissions among US states
800
Data Source: CAIT 4.0, WRI, all gases/sources, year 2000, excl land use change
750
700
650
600
550
500
MMtCO 2 e
450
400
350
Florida
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Ohio
Illinois
Missouri
Wisconsin
Florida
Indiana
Louisiana
Michigan
Virginia
Iowa
Colorado
Washington
Texas
California
New York
Georgia
Kentucky
Minnesota
Kansas
Arizona
North Carolina
Tennessee
West Virginia
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Massachusetts
Maryland
Pennsylvania
Alabama
New Jersey
State
Overall, Florida ranks 6th among
the states in total CO2 emissions
Center for Climate Strategies
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Florida emissions
Since 1990 Florida emissions
increased 37%, second only
to Texas.
Center for Climate Strategies
The Arizona climate action plan
The Bottom Line
• The plan contains a portfolio of 49 recommendations that, if
implemented, will cut Arizona’s GHG emissions almost in half by 2020
and provide $5.5 billion in net savings to the economy. (Center for Climate Strategies)
• One third of Florida’s energy needs can be met by efficiency and
renewables by 2023 and save about $60 billion. (ACEEE, 2007)
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Opportunity: solar thermal & photovoltaic
52% of US solar exports go to Germany
Germany installations = 8 times US installs
Solar potential - Germany vs. US
Of 40 states with net metering programs, only Florida and
Illinois do not have statewide standards and incentives.
Opportunity: biofuels & biomass
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Opportunity: industrial forests of the Southeast as
carbon sinks
Total landscape
carbon uptake
as determined
by growth,
harvest, fire,
and phosphate
mining.
Carbon budget analysis
is essential for
assessing mitigation
potential of Florida
forests.
carbon”
Harvest “closed loop carbon” for fuel?
Binford et al. 2006. J Geophys Res.
How much energy could we get from wood?
Biomass supply curve for Green Cove Springs, FL
At a price competitive
with coal, this would
supply half of the power
produced by a medium
size plant such as the
one in Gainesville, FL.
Environmental concerns
Matt Langholtz, UF/IFAS
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Opportunity - energy from waste
• Less CO2 is produced from power
generation with methane.
• Waste methane is close to being closed
loop carbon.
• Methane, a GHG, would otherwise be lost
to atmosphere.
Cautions about ethanol
Farrell et al. Science. 2006
• Lifecycle carbon emissions must be known
• Production process must be transparent & accountable
• Cellulosic ethanol has yet to be mass produced
• Environmental and water use consequences
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Summary of emissions from energy alternatives
Opportunity: Combined heat and power (CHP)
• Up to 80% efficiency because the same energy is used twice
• Use in large private and public institutions - universities,
nursing homes, factories, hospitals - any place thermal energy
is needed for heating or cooling.
• 69 installations in Florida - a fraction of possible
• Issue - net metering and interconnection with the grid
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Opportunity: mandatory caps with carbon
market trading
Use market forces
driven by “cap-and-trade”
“Climate change is
serious business.”
Carbon markets make money
Cap-and-Trade is a transitional strategy that through
monetizing offsets may provide a common denominator for
economic valuation of ecosystems and their carbon
sequestration services.
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Adaptation - coping with climate change
“Climate change is the biggest market
failure in history” - Sir Nicholas Stern
• Adaptation is essential because of the warming already in the pipeline.
• Adaptation will not be a smooth or cost-free
endeavor.
Will require substantial investments based on
imperfect foresight.
Adaptation will be more difficult with more rapid
or greater climate change.
• Managed systems will fare better than natural
systems.
• Proactive approaches are more likely to avoid or reduce damages
than reactive responses; requires periodic reassessments.
Pew Center on Global Climate
Projection: regional changes in net primary productivity
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Proactive adaptation for Florida
Agriculture - Reduced crop production in SE - precision agriculture
with drip irrigation - new varieties of crops - conservation tillage; pest
control.
Forestry - Anticipate changes in productivity & species composition -
enhance the role of forests in carbon sequestration & fuel production.
Water resources - Extensive reserve capacity to regulate regional
water scarcity - protect & enhance the Floridan aquifer.
Sea level rise - Improve coastal elevation data - coastal land use
planning; decide what to abandon and when - Strategic Retreat.
Coastal ecosystems - Plan for shift in distribution of mangrove
and salt marsh ecosystems - impacts on fauna.
Human health - Public health planning for emerging infectious
diseases and heat related illness.
Hurricanes - Hurricane hardening & new coastal building codes -
improved evacuation routes.
•
Land use - blending mitigation and adaptation
California land use
amplifies warming
• Warming -
50% due to
gobal warming;
50% due to land
use change
• Large urban areas
warmed 2-5 times
more than the state
mean 1950-2000.
LaDochy et al. 2007. IJC.
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Urbanization -
implications for
energy conservation
Peak load as function of temperature
Buildings use over
a third of our total
energy budget.
Las Vegas suburbs are cooler
Impervious surfaces
cost energy
Tampa Bay
area
impervious
surfaces
Atlanta 26 Sept 2000; NASA
Xian & Crane. 2006. Remote Sens Env
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Land use
impact on
regional climate
Major effects:
1. Long wave
radiation
2. Potential
evapo-
transpiration
3. Boundary layer
& convective
processes
Pielke, R. A. Science. 2005
Land use impacts on south Florida climate
Precipitation Maximum
temperature
Minimum
Minimum temperature
temperature anomaly
associated
with land use.
Marshall et al. 2005. Monthly weather review.; Marshall et al. Nature 2003
Pielke, RA, Sr.et al. 2007. Ag For Met.
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Our
problem
is
obvious 2015-2020
Florida Critical Lands
Biological and Waters
Resources
Water
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Scenario modeling for Florida’s future
Concept from The Florida House Institute
IPCC 4th Assessment:
• Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change.
• Climate change can slow progress toward sustainable development.
Science that changed the human paradigm
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