The realities and opportunities of The realities and opportunities of climate change climate change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC
The balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate. 2nd Assessment Report, 1996. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activity. 3rd Assessment Report 2001 Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid20th century is very likely [>90% probability] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. 4th Assessment Report 2007
S. Mulkey June 2007
The problem: greenhouse gases absorb and radiate heat to the lower atmosphere.
Relative importance
Greenhouse gases are higher now than in over 850,000 years
1
“The greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people.”
- Senator James Inhofe. 2005
“The global environmental effects of the industrial era will cast a long shadow on future generations everywhere, for all time.”
David Orr. 2005. The Last Refuge.
Indicators of Good Science
• Peer reviewed - does not include ∅ Web sites from interest groups ∅ Blogs ∅ Op Eds ∅ Tabloids, talk shows, etc…
e.g., The Great Global Warming Swindle
• Replicated experiments • Long term data • Objective studies - not funded by interest groups
Translating Science into Policy
• Scientists must speak plain English!! • Scientists are not experts outside of their field • Science must never service a political agenda, e.g., “foreign oil” • Policy-makers should agree to seek science-based solutions • When uncertainty exists, policy should minimize the cost of error
2
Designated authority to inform and advise -
Adaptation
The National Academies of Science
Mitigation
June 2005
Observed warming
IPCC 4th Assessment: “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal…. [there is] very high confidence that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming”
Global temperatures rose 1.4 oF over the last 100 years.
3
It is impossible to simulate the observed temperature rise without including anthropogenic forcing
Models predicted the effect of Pinatubo
Climate models
• GCMs have passed most critical tests • GCMs need improvement in modeling the tropics
4
Projection: if
carbon dioxide doubles relative to pre-industrial concentrations, temperatures will rise 3.5 - 8.0 oF
0C
Washington DC will change from having about 35 days above 90o F to over 85 days per year by 2050.
Projection: the paradox of increased precipitation and drought
1900-2002
5
Changes in extreme events
Solid curve: Today’s climate Dashed curve: Warmed climate Solid: Change in frequency Dashed: % Change
Projection: extreme weather
6
Projection: devastation of coral reefs
2/3 of reefs severely damage by thermal stress since 1990 39 - 54% mortality
pH
CO2(aq)
After Wolf-Gladrow et al., 1999
2006
CO32-
Source: Mark Eakin, PhD, NOAA
Projection: increased hurricane intensity (maybe)
Sea Surface Temperature
Annual power dissipation (PDI) by tropical cyclones compared to August - October sea surface temperature (SST). Emanuel [Nature,
2005; revised 2007]
• IPCC 4th assessment: Stronger hurricanes “likely” - A weakened Walker circulation may diminish this. • It is not at all clear if climate change will affect the frequency of hurricanes
7
Florida vulnerability to hurricanes & storm surge
Storm surge - Tampa Bay
[The effects of global warming]
Potential capital losses
William D. Nordhaus. 2006. The Economics of Hurricanes in the United States. NBER 12813, 47pp.
“will emerge as if someone had subtly, but progressively, loaded a pair of dice.” - Kerry Emanuel 2005
Stephen Mulkey 2007
Projection: decreasing terrestrial ice
When North America was colonized by Western Europeans, Glacier National Park contained more than 120 glaciers. Presently there are 23 glaciers, and by 2030 there will be none (USGS).
8
Projection: decrease in polar sea ice
The Northwest Passage will become reality in the summer by 2050 at the latest. Decreasing ice amplifies warming
Projection: sea level rise
4th assessment: 7 - 23 inches by 2100, excluding effects of ice flow and carbon cycle feedbacks.
Bottom line: 3 ft by 2100. Bottom line: 3 ft by 2100.
Source: Rahmstorf et al. Science 2007, Figure redrawn by BBC
.
9
Projection: amplification from defrosting the permafrost
• Official climate projections do
not include emissions from melting permafrost. • Because of this carbon release, warming will be faster than predicted. (Davidson & Janssens Nature 2006)
Business as usual: reasonable expectations by 2075
• Sea level at minimum 0.75 meters higher • 200 million human ecological refugees - sea level rise & disasters • Agricultural zones will shift up to 10o north in N. America
• Low crop yields & widespread hunger in developing world
• Up to 35% of existing biodiversity committed to extinction • Loss of most coral reefs - ocean warming & acidification • Increased infectious disease in tropics - 800 million with malaria • Up to a third of the Amazon basin progressing to savanna • Warmer, wetter, greater precipitation intensity, stronger dry periods • 400 million people living with water shortage • Global economic cost: up to 20% world GDP (by 2100; Stern report)
10
Rapid climate change: tipping points & uncertainties
• How fast will Greenland melt? When will it be committed to melt down? • What will be the Antarctic ice flow? • What is the extent of amplification due to permafrost & sea ice melting? • Will the Atlantic conveyor belt slow down and stop?
Business as usual: projections for Florida through 2100
• Florida’s coastal cities will be forced to make expenditures for building seawalls and flood control structures. Some areas could be abandoned. • The rise in the temperatures will make Florida a less desirable place to live and will cause increases in heat stroke, emerging infectious disease, and other health problems. • Florida will lose beachfront property and suffer much greater storm damage from higher storm surges and more powerful hurricanes. • Insurance costs will soar and insurance companies will refuse to provide coverage in vulnerable areas. • Agriculture in Florida may see a short term benefit but later will be hurt by longer periods of drought. • Coral bleaching from warming and more acidic sea water will devastate sport and commercial fishing. • Regional water shortages will result in increased rationing. • Up to ??% of species committed to extinction - coastal habitats most affected.
Institute for Alternative Futures
11
The long emergency of climate change “We have three choices mitigation, adaptation, and suffering.” suffering.”
John Holdren, President AAAS
“Our response to climate change will be like an intergenerational banquet….” banquet…
Andrew Revkin, Climate reporter for the NY Times
Future shock
NY Times 2006
12
Another concern - the energy crisis
Two scenarios for when world consumption will exceed production
US Petroleum Consumption and Production
Good news: energy and climate are linked issues with a common solution
Wedges for mitigation
“For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.”
H. L. Mencken
13
Emissions for “business-asusual”
60% cut in emissions by 2050
Mitigation Can we do it?
Emissions target
We need at least 7 wedges
William Chameides
Responses among the states
GHG Emissions Targets
Climate Action Plans
Renewable Portfolios
GHG Reporting Registries
Efficiency Standards
Regional Climate Initiatives
The costs of climate change for Florida are possibly the highest of any state
14
Initial strategy for Florida emissions mitigation
Greenhouse gas inventory Climate action plan with emissions targets Greenhouse gas reporting registry State standards for energy production efficiency Mandates and incentives for promoting solar & biofuels Renewables portfolio for power generation Appliance efficiency standards Green building standards for state buildings Market based incentives for compliance including capand-trade and/or a carbon tax $ Conservation and alternative energy markets will create economic opportunity
Florida emissions among US states
800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Illinois Ohio Indiana Florida California New York Texas Pennsylvania
Data Source: CAIT 4.0, WRI, all gases/sources, year 2000, excl land use change
MMtCO 2 e
Florida
Wisconsin
Missouri
Washington
Louisiana
Michigan
Virginia
Iowa
Colorado
Georgia
Minnesota
Kentucky
North Carolina
West Virginia
Oklahoma
Arizona
Kansas
South Carolina
Tennessee
State
Overall, Florida ranks 6th among the states in total CO2 emissions
Center for Climate Strategies
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Maryland
Alabama
15
Florida emissions
Since 1990 Florida emissions increased 37%, second only to Texas.
Center for Climate Strategies
The Arizona climate action plan
The Bottom Line • The plan contains a portfolio of 49 recommendations that, if implemented, will cut Arizona’s GHG emissions almost in half by 2020 and provide $5.5 billion in net savings to the economy. (Center for Climate Strategies) • One third of Florida’s energy needs can be met by efficiency and renewables by 2023 and save about $60 billion. (ACEEE, 2007)
16
Opportunity: solar thermal & photovoltaic
52% of US solar exports go to Germany Germany installations = 8 times US installs
Solar potential - Germany vs. US
Of 40 states with net metering programs, only Florida and Illinois do not have statewide standards and incentives.
Opportunity: biofuels & biomass
17
Opportunity: industrial forests of the Southeast as carbon sinks Total landscape carbon uptake as determined by growth, harvest, fire, and phosphate mining.
Carbon budget analysis is essential for assessing mitigation potential of Florida forests.
Harvest “closed loop carbon” for fuel? carbon”
Binford et al. 2006. J Geophys Res.
How much energy could we get from wood?
Biomass supply curve for Green Cove Springs, FL
At a price competitive with coal, this would supply half of the power produced by a medium size plant such as the one in Gainesville, FL.
Environmental concerns
Matt Langholtz, UF/IFAS
18
Opportunity - energy from waste
• Less CO2 is produced from power generation with methane. • Waste methane is close to being closed loop carbon. • Methane, a GHG, would otherwise be lost to atmosphere.
Cautions about ethanol
Farrell et al. Science. 2006
• Lifecycle carbon emissions must be known • Production process must be transparent & accountable • Cellulosic ethanol has yet to be mass produced • Environmental and water use consequences
19
Summary of emissions from energy alternatives
Opportunity: Combined heat and power (CHP)
• Up to 80% efficiency because the same energy is used twice • Use in large private and public institutions - universities, nursing homes, factories, hospitals - any place thermal energy is needed for heating or cooling. • 69 installations in Florida - a fraction of possible • Issue - net metering and interconnection with the grid
20
Opportunity: mandatory caps with carbon market trading
Use market forces driven by “cap-and-trade”
“Climate change is serious business.”
Carbon markets make money
Cap-and-Trade is a transitional strategy that through monetizing offsets may provide a common denominator for economic valuation of ecosystems and their carbon sequestration services.
21
Adaptation - coping with climate change
“Climate change is the biggest market failure in history” - Sir Nicholas Stern • Adaptation is essential because of the warming already in the pipeline. • Adaptation will not be a smooth or cost-free endeavor.
Will require substantial investments based on imperfect foresight. Adaptation will be more difficult with more rapid or greater climate change.
• Managed systems will fare better than natural systems. • Proactive approaches are more likely to avoid or reduce damages than reactive responses; requires periodic reassessments.
Pew Center on Global Climate
Projection: regional changes in net primary productivity
22
Proactive adaptation for Florida
Agriculture - Reduced crop production in SE - precision agriculture
with drip irrigation - new varieties of crops - conservation tillage; pest control.
Forestry - Anticipate changes in productivity & species composition enhance the role of forests in carbon sequestration & fuel production.
Water resources - Extensive reserve capacity to regulate regional
water scarcity - protect & enhance the Floridan aquifer.
Sea level rise - Improve coastal elevation data - coastal land use
planning; decide what to abandon and when - Strategic Retreat.
Coastal ecosystems - Plan for shift in distribution of mangrove
and salt marsh ecosystems - impacts on fauna.
Human health - Public health planning for emerging infectious
diseases and heat related illness.
Hurricanes - Hurricane hardening & new coastal building codes improved evacuation routes.
•
Land use - blending mitigation and adaptation
California land use amplifies warming
• Warming 50% due to gobal warming; 50% due to land use change • Large urban areas warmed 2-5 times more than the state mean 1950-2000.
LaDochy et al. 2007. IJC.
23
Urbanization implications for energy conservation
Peak load as function of temperature
Buildings use over a third of our total energy budget.
Impervious surfaces cost energy
Las Vegas suburbs are cooler
Tampa Bay area impervious surfaces
Atlanta 26 Sept 2000; NASA
Xian & Crane. 2006. Remote Sens Env
24
Land use impact on regional climate
Major effects: 1. Long wave radiation 2. Potential evapotranspiration 3. Boundary layer & convective processes
Pielke, R. A. Science. 2005
Land use impacts on south Florida climate
Precipitation Maximum temperature
Minimum temperature
Minimum temperature anomaly associated with land use.
Marshall et al. 2005. Monthly weather review.; Pielke, RA, Sr.et al. 2007. Ag For Met.
Marshall et al. Nature 2003
25
Our problem is obvious
2015-2020
Biological Resources
Florida Critical Lands and Waters
Water
26
Scenario modeling for Florida’s future
Concept from The Florida House Institute
IPCC 4th Assessment: • Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change. • Climate change can slow progress toward sustainable development.
Science that changed the human paradigm
27