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HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES Study #10422--page 1
November 2011 AFL-CIO OH Election Survey
1724 Connecticut Avenue, NW Interviews: 1,015 Issue Two voters
Washington, DC 20009 Dates: November 6-8, 2011
(202) 234-5570
FINAL 47 Male
Study #10422 53 Female
AFL-CIO OH Election Survey [109]
November 6-8, 2011
Please note: all results are shown as percentages unless otherwise stated.
(ASK TO SPEAK WITH PERSON ON QUOTA SHEET. ONLY THIS PERSON IS ELIGIBLE TO BE INTERVIEWED.)
I'm calling from PDH Research, a national public opinion polling firm. We are conducting a short research study here
in Ohio and would like to get your opinions on a few questions. This survey is being done for research purposes only,
we are not selling anything, and we promise that your name and individual responses will be kept completely
confidential.
(ASK ONLY OF EARLY VOTERS.)
1. As you may know, Ohio is holding an election on Tuesday to vote on three statewide ballot measures. Some
people vote early using a mail ballot, some people vote in-person on Election Day, and many Ohioans will
NOT vote in this election. Have you already voted by mail, do you plan to vote in-person on Election Day, or
are you unlikely to vote this year?
Early
Voters
Already voted by mail ........................ 93 Skip to Q.3a [142]
Plan to vote in-person ....................... 7 CONTINUE
Unlikely to vote.................................. - TERMINATE
Not sure........................................... -
(ASK ONLY OF EARLY VOTERS WHO PLAN TO VOTE IN-PERSON.)
2a. What are the odds that you will vote in-person on Tuesday–are you absolutely certain to vote, will you
probably vote, are chances 50-50, or is there less than a 50-50 chance that you will vote on Tuesday?
Early
Voters
Absolutely certain to vote .................. 100 Skip to Q.3b [143]
Probably will vote .............................. -
Chances are 50-50............................ - TERMINATE
Chances are less than 50-50 ............ -
Not sure........................................... -
(ASK ONLY OF ELECTION DAY VOTERS)
2b. As you may know, Ohio is holding an election today to vote on three statewide ballot measures. Many
Ohioans were not able to vote in today's election. How about you -- did you vote in today's election, or not?
Election Day
Voters
Yes, voted........................................ 100 CONTINUE [144]
No, did not vote ............................... - TERMINATE
Not sure......................................... -
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES Study #10422--page 2
November 2011 AFL-CIO OH Election Survey
3a/b. One of the measures on the ballot was Issue Two, which would place certain limits on government union
contracts and collective bargaining for government employees. A "yes" vote on Issue Two would APPROVE
a law placing limits on government union contracts and collective bargaining for government employees. A
"no" vote on Issue Two would REJECT the law placing limits on government union contracts and collective
bargaining for government employees. From what you recall, did you vote yes or no on Issue Two? (IF
RESPONDENT REFUSES TO SAY HOW HE OR SHE VOTED, SAY:) This survey is being done for
research purposes only. Your willingness to say how you voted is important for ensuring the accuracy of our
research, and we promise that we will always maintain the privacy and confidentiality of your responses.
Voted yes/Will vote yes................................... 39 CONTINUE [145-146]
Voted no/Will vote no...................................... 61
[Did not/Will not] vote on Issue Two (VOL) ... -
Refused (VOL).............................................. - TERMINATE
Not sure ........................................................ -
4a/b. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that John Kasich is doing as governor of Ohio? (IF
"APPROVE" OR "DISAPPROVE," ASK:) And do you strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat
(approve/disapprove) of the job that John Kasich is doing as governor of Ohio?
Approve 39
Strongly .......................................... 20 [147-148]
Somewhat ...................................... 19
Disapprove 51
Somewhat ...................................... 11
Strongly .......................................... 40
Not sure........................................ 10
5a/b. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that Republicans in the Ohio state legislature are doing?
(IF "APPROVE" OR "DISAPPROVE," ASK:) And do you strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat
(approve/disapprove) of the job that Republicans in the Ohio state legislature are doing?
Approve 38
Strongly........................................... 12 [149-150]
Somewhat ....................................... 26
Disapprove 51
Somewhat ....................................... 14
Strongly........................................... 37
Not sure ........................................ 11
6a/b. Regardless of how you voted on Issue Two, do you think that public employees who work for state
government, city government, or a school district should or should not be allowed to engage in collective
bargaining over wages, benefits, and working conditions, such as staffing levels? (IF “SHOULD" OR
"SHOULD NOT," ASK:) Is that definitely or probably (should be allowed/should not be allowed)?
Should Be Allowed 66
Definitely......................................... 57 [151-152]
Probably ......................................... 9
Should Not Be Allowed 27
Probably ......................................... 9
Definitely......................................... 18
Not sure........................................ 7
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES Study #10422--page 3
November 2011 AFL-CIO OH Election Survey
Let me ask you a little more about Issue Two. . . . As you may know, Issue Two was a referendum on Senate Bill
Number Five, meaning Ohio voters got to decide whether to approve or reject a law that had been passed by the
state legislature and signed by Governor Kasich earlier this year.
7. If voters approve Issue Two and the law takes effect, do you think that this law will have a mainly positive
impact or mainly negative impact on (READ ITEM) in Ohio?
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY MAINLY NEGATIVE IMPACT
Mainly Mainly No
Positive Negative Impact Mixed Not
Impact Impact (VOL) (VOL) Sure
Wages and benefits for workers............... 33 53 5 3 6 [155]
The middle class ...................................... 35 52 5 2 6 [156]
Public safety............................................. 31 51 11 2 5 [154]
Jobs and the economy............................. 36 48 7 3 6 [153]
The quality of public education................. 33 47 10 3 7 [157]
8. Regardless of how you voted on Issue Two, do you think that Governor Kasich and Republicans in the state
legislature want to limit collective bargaining for government workers more because–-(A) they genuinely
think it will make state government more efficient, or more because (B) they are following a partisan agenda
to weaken labor unions? *
(A) Genuinely think it will make state government more efficient.... 33 [158]
(B) Following a partisan agenda to weaken labor unions ............... 53
Both equal (VOL) ......................................................................... 6
Not sure ....................................................................................... 8
* Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A).
9. Overall, would you say that Issue Two and Senate Bill Five was the change that Ohio was voting for when it
elected Governor Kasich and a Republican majority in the legislature, or do you think Ohio was voting for a
different kind of change? *
Change Ohio was voting for .................................... 25 [159]
Ohio was voting for a different kind of change......... 58
Neither (VOL) ........................................................ 4
Other (VOL)........................................................... 3
Not sure................................................................ 10
* Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A).
10a/b. If Ohio voters reject Issue Two, Governor Kasich and Republicans in the state legislature have said they
might try to pass similar legislation again. If the voters reject Issue Two, do you think Republicans should
pass a similar law again, or drop the issue and move on to other matters? (IF RESPONDENT MAKES A
CHOICE, ASK:) Do you feely strongly or not strongly about that? *
Pass Again 35 [160-161]
Feel strongly................................... 30
Do not feel strongly......................... 5
Drop Issue 60
Do not feel strongly......................... 5
Feel strongly................................... 55
Not sure......................................... 5
* Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A).
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES Study #10422--page 4
November 2011 AFL-CIO OH Election Survey
10c. If Ohio voters reject Issue Two, Governor Kasich and Republicans in the state legislature have said they
might try to pass similar legislation again. Suppose that voters reject Issue Two, and the legislature goes
ahead and passes a similar law again. In that case, would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a
senator or legislator who voted to pass another law similar to Issue Two? **
More likely to vote ............................. 32 [162]
Less likely to vote.............................. 56
No difference (VOL) ........................ 6
Not sure ........................................ 6
** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B).
11a. As you may know, Mitt Romney has said that he strongly supports Issue Two. If Mitt Romney is the
Republican nominee for president next year, will his support for Issue Two make you more likely or less
likely to support him? *
More likely to support........................ 19 [163]
Less likely to support ........................ 49
No effect (VOL) .............................. 24
Not sure ........................................ 8
* Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A).
11b. As you may know, Rick Perry has said that he strongly supports Issue Two. If Rick Perry is the Republican
nominee for president next year, will his support for Issue Two make you more likely or less likely to support
him? **
More likely to support........................ 18 [164]
Less likely to support ........................ 51
No effect (VOL) .............................. 25
Not sure ........................................ 6
** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B).
12. In terms of the direct contact that you received about Issue Two, such as phone calls or visits at home from
campaign volunteers--and not including ads on TV or radio–would you say that you received a great deal, a
fair amount, just some, or very little direct contact from (READ ITEM)?
Received
Received A A Fair Received Received
Great Deal Amount Of Just Some Very Little Not
Of Contact Contact Contact Contact Sure
Supporters of Issue Two.............. 23 18 15 42 2 [165]
Opponents of Issue Two.............. 32 20 12 35 1 [166]
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES Study #10422--page 5
November 2011 AFL-CIO OH Election Survey
13. Getting near the end of the survey, let me read you some statements people have made about Governor
Kasich and Republicans in the legislature, and for each one please tell me whether you think it applies or
does not apply to Republican leaders in Ohio. **
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY APPLIES
Does Not Not
Applies Apply Sure
They have unfairly blamed public employees for the state's fiscal
problems .............................................................................................. 57 34 9 [169]
They are putting the interests of big corporations ahead of average
working people..................................................................................... 57 35 8 [167]
They are pursuing a partisan political agenda, instead of doing what
is needed to improve our economy...................................................... 53 38 9 [168]
They have looked out for the interests of people like me..................... 37 56 7 [171]
They have created jobs and strengthened Ohio's economy ................ 31 60 9 [172]
They have brought government spending under control without
harming education and other services ................................................. 30 58 12 [170]
** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B).
FACTUALS: Now I am going to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes only.
F1. What is the last year of schooling that you have completed?
1st through 11th grade ................................................. 2 [173]
High school graduate ................................................... 23
Non-college post-high school (e.g., technical school) .. 6
Some college ............................................................... 24
College graduate.......................................................... 27
Postgraduate school..................................................... 15
Not sure...................................................................... 3
(ASK ONLY OF 2010 VOTERS FROM FILE.)
F2. In the November 2010 election for governor of Ohio, did you vote for Ted Strickland, the Democrat, or for
John Kasich, the Republican?
2010
Voters
Voted for Ted Strickland ................... 46 [174]
Voted for John Kasich....................... 43
Voted for other candidate (VOL) ..... 1
Did not vote for governor (VOL) ...... 1
Not sure .......................................... 6
Non-2010 voters ............................... 3
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES Study #10422--page 6
November 2011 AFL-CIO OH Election Survey
F3a. Are you a current or retired member of a labor union, or not a union member?
(ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "YES" IN Q.F3a.)
F3b. And which are you--a current member or a retired member?
(ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY NO OR NOT SURE IN Q.F3a )
F3c. Is anyone else in this household a member of a labor union?
Yes—Current member........................ 14 [175-177]
Yes—Retired member ........................ 14
Yes—Not sure .................................... -
Labor union household ....................... 12
Nonunion household........................... 57
Not sure............................................ 3
F3d. Would you tell me whether you, or anyone else in this household, is a public employee-that is, employed by
federal, state, or local government, a public school system, or some other governmental agency?
Yes, public employee household ...... 26 [178]
No, not public employee household .. 71
Not sure .......................................... 3
F4a-c. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something
else? (IF “DEMOCRAT” OR “REPUBLICAN.” ASK:) Would you call yourself a very strong
(Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF “INDEPENDENT,” ASK:) Do you
think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself
as strictly independent?
Democrat
Very strong Democrat ..................... 25 [179-208]
Not very strong Democrat ............... 9
Closer to Democratic Party ............. 6
Republican
Closer to Republican Party ............ 10
Not very strong Republican............. 12
Very strong Republican................... 19
Strictly independent .......................... 9
Something else ................................. 5
Not sure ........................................ 5
F5. Thinking about your general approach to issues, do you consider yourself to be liberal, moderate, or
conservative?
Liberal ............................................... 17 [209]
Moderate........................................... 38
Conservative ..................................... 37
Not sure .......................................... 8
F6a. Are you from a Hispanic or Spanish-speaking background?
(ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "NO" OR "NOT SURE" IN Q.F6a.)
F6b. What is your race–white, black or African American, Asian, or something else?
Hispanic ........................................... 1
White ................................................ 83 [210-211]
Black/African American .................... 10
Asian ................................................ -
Other ................................................ 2
Not sure/refused............................. 4
HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES Study #10422--page 7
November 2011 AFL-CIO OH Election Survey
F7. For statistical purposes only, and to ensure that we have a representative sample, would you please tell me
how old you are? (IF “REFUSED,” ASK:) Well, would you tell me which age group you belong to?
18-24 ................................................ 3 [140-141]
25-29 ................................................ 3
30-34 ................................................ 4
35-39 ................................................ 6
40-44 ................................................ 7
45-49 ............................................... 9
50-54 ................................................ 11
55-59 ................................................ 14
60-64 ................................................ 11
65-69 ................................................ 10
70-74 ................................................ 9
75 and over ...................................... 12
Refused .......................................... 1
Type
Early voters ....................................... 20
Election Day voters ........................... 80
