Wind Energy ver 2.0 by pengxiang

VIEWS: 4 PAGES: 24

									Wind Energy
Economical Aspects & Project Development
With Real Case Studies




Gävle University
Renewable energy course
Supervisor: Prof. Göran Wall
Shahriar Ghahremanian
October 2006
 1- Economical Aspects

1-1 Total investment cost
1-2 Effective life time of system
1-3 Operation & Maintenance Cost
1-4 Physical properties of wind and wind turbine
  output energy
1-5 Technical availability
1-6 Total Production cost
1-7 Cost Comparison with Other Energy Sources
Conclusion
1-1 Total investment cost
•      Total investment of wind turbine is divided to:
       –   Turbine manufacturing (ex-work)
       –   Construction like foundation, building and engineering
       –   Connecting to grid

                  Region               Power (kWe)          Turbine cost (US$ per kWe)

              United states[1]             200                      1000 - 1200

           European community[2]        100 - 400                   1000 – 1300

             The Netherlands[3]            250                         800



    • Approximately % 75 - 80 of total investment is related to turbine (reported
    by USA and the Netherlands )
    •The total investment is about 900 – 1300 US$ per kWe
    •Making the turbine should be more cost effective than construction but
    connecting to grid are increasing
1-2 Effective life time of system

• For economic considering, wind turbines often
  have 20 years economic life time and this time
  is equal to system design
• Although we should notice that the best
  turbines have proven life time around 10 to 15
  years
  1-3 Operation / Maintenance Cost
  • O & M costs are often considering as a percentage of total investment or electricity production
  cost per kilowatt hour:
                                                  O & M Cost
              Region
                                                  US cent/kWh
 Europe ( scientific experiences)[2]                    0.5
    European community study                             1
US department of energy & SERI[1]                        1
                                               0.6 (for first 2 years)
 Danish energy agency (1990) [3]               0.8 (for next 3 years)
                                                  1 (after 5 years)
• The percentage of the total investment attributed to operation and
maintenance costs rises as wind turbines become older
• Operation and maintenance costs are divided into parts such as:
      • services
                                        Machine Size         Year 1-2    Year 3-5    Year 6-10     Year 11-15      Year 16-20
      • consumables
                                           150 kW              1.2         2.8          3.3            6.1             7.0
      • repair
                                           300 kW              1.0         2.2          2.6            4.0             5.0
      • insurance
                                         500-600 kW            1.0         1.9          2.2            3.5             4.5
      • administration
                                       Annual operational and maintenance costs in % of the investment in the wind turbine
      • lease of site                  (Danish Energy Agency, 1999, p.19)
1-4 Physical properties of wind and wind turbine output energy

    Average output energy per square meter of rotor swept per year is the below
        form:
                                                       KWh/m2/yr
    b: efficiency Coefficient (this factor is an efficiency quality of wind turbines, is
        not constant around the world and depends on average velocity of wind in
        a year and wind distribution)
    v: velocity average in a year




Improvement of efficiency factor of wind turbines [4]   Distribution function of wind velocity [4]
     1-5 Technical availability
  • System availability is the portion of a year that turbine can produce energy.
    A turbine may not produce energy all the year because of maintenance,
    unpredictable events and repairing.




                      Technical availability of best US wind turbines [5]

• There are no records or reported experiences about unavailability
• Only US (as figure 5-1) showed that:
     • Medium sized wind turbines (250 KWe) probably reached to desired availability
     • Large scale wind turbines (> 300 KWe) are in first steps
     • The best wind turbines in US reaches to %95 availability level after 5 years operation.
Sample Wind Farm Costs
For example an indicative capital cost for a "turn-key" contract to
supply, install and commission a large wind farm, as shown in the
table, based on 400 kW wind turbines (and UK experience), is about
A$850 - $1,050 per square metre of rotor swept area or A$1.8 - $2.7
million per MW
 Project Initiation               Financing               1% project cost
                              Planning Consent           $10,000 to $50,000
                      Project development/ management         $50,000


  Capital Costs          Ex-factory cost of machines    $550/sq.m swept area
                           Install and commission        15% ex-factory cost
                          Infrastructure & connect       45% ex factory cost


   Annual costs         Operation and maintenance        1.5% of capital cost
                                Metering                    0.64 c/kVArh
                             reactive power              0.5% of capital cost
                                Insurance               1.5% of gross revenue
                            Land rental Rates            $13 per installed kW
Wind Energy Project Analyses                                                                               (Data from Renewable Energy Technology Screen case studies, Canada), [11]


                                                                Remote         Wind farm      Green Power           Grid-Connected     Large Wind       Offshore       Isolated Island     Wind Power on      Grid-Connected
            Project name                              Unit
                                                               Community       Repowering      Production             Wind farm         Turbines        Wind farm        Community       Hydro Central-Grid    Wind Farm


                                                                 Yukon,         Alberta,        Alberta,            Andhra Pradesh,   Niedersachsen,   Copenhagen,     Newfoundland,         Kennewick,           Wigton,
          Project location                             ---
                                                                 Canada         Canada          Canada                  India           Germany         Denmark           Canada                WA                Jamaica

     Annual average wind speed                        m/s           6              6.5            6.2                     6.2              6.4             7.2               6.5                6.6                 8.3

             Grid type                                 ---     Isolated-grid   Central-grid   Central-grid            Central-grid     Central-grid    Central-grid     Isolated-grid       Central-grid        Central-grid

        Number of turbines                             ---          1              32              1                      80                6              20                6                  49                  23

        Wind plant capacity                           kW           150           19200            600                   20000             9900            40000             390                63700              20700

   Unadjusted energy production                       MWh          585           65375           1933                   43022             18848          110599             908               181128              82133

   Pressure adjustment coefficient                     ---         0.84            0.9            0.9                    0.93               1               1               0.98                0.96               0.89

 Temperature adjustment coefficient                    ---         1.08           1.03           1.03                    0.96             1.02            1.02              1.04                1.03               0.98

      Gross energy production                         MWh          530           60603           1792                   38410             19225          112811             926               179100              71637

         Losses coefficient                            ---         0.88           0.94           0.95                     0.9              0.9            0.89              0.87                0.9                0.77

    Renewable energy delivered                        MWh          469           57044           1704                   34679             17372           99839             562               161842              55235

    Renewable energy delivered                        GJ          1687           205360          6134                   124845            62540          359422             2022              582630              198846

   Base case GHG emission factor                    tCO2/MWh      0.472           0.513          0.491                   0.559            0.861           0.898            0.925               0.559               1.019

 Net annual GHG emission reduction                    tCO2         210           25772            770                   17045             13767           82513             494                79547              47044

            Initial Costs

                                Feasibility Study      %            5              0.1            2.9                     0.3              0.5             1.3               2.4                0.3                  0

                                   Development         %           4.6             0.2            4.5                     0.8              3.5             4.1               4                  1.1                  0

                                    Engineering        %           6.9             0.2            4.5                     0.6              0.3              0                7.2                0.8                11.3

                            Energy Equipment           %           38.4           81.6           63.9                    77.5             69.4            49.8              50.6                74.6               69.6

                                Balance of Plant       %           36.5           12.2           16.3                    11.8             21.5            41.7               30                 12.1               10.1

                                  Miscellaneous        %           8.5             5.7            7.9                     9.1              4.8             3.1               5.7                11.1                 9

                                Feasibility Study      $         4 3,500         1 9,100        3 5,300                 47413             36487          548804            30,000             245,200                -

                                   Development         $         4 0,000         5 4,700        5 4,900                 132604           281631          1735190           50,000             835,500                -

                                    Engineering        $         5 9,800         5 9,300        5 4,600                 112578            24334             -              90,000             610,500             195,000

                            Energy Equipment           $         331,750       2 4,250,400      7 82,200               13607274          5539156        21064398          632,040            59,275,016          1,206,192

                                Balance of Plant       $         315,000       3 ,635,000       2 00,000               2071877           1716806        17626301          375,000            9,638,000            175,500

                                  Miscellaneous        $         73,576        1 ,702,904       9 6,437                1595178           386016          1299375           71,211            8,829,119            156,093

        Initial Costs - Total                          $         863,626       29,721,404      1,223,437               17566925          7984431        42274068         1,248,251           79,433,335          1,732,785

     O&M Annual Costs - Total                          $         26,074          81968           47662                  319831             230             725             22.071            2,557,215            50,050

          Simple Payback                               yr          41.6           11.4           13.8                     6.3              7.4             7.3               7.2                11.3                 7

     Year-to-positive cash flow                        yr      more than 25       20.1           15.6                     7.6              6.8             7.1               6.9             immediate              5.4

     Annual Life Cycle Savings                         $          69489          464025          2 ,012                1220962           253446          1472728            2861             1,229,164            37,231

      Benefit-Cost (B-C) ratio                         ---         1.15           0.47           1.04                    3.18             1.45            1.34              0.98                 -                 1.34

       Avoided cost of energy                        $/kWh         0.1            0.06           0.08                   0.0901            0.075           0.046             0.19               0.0439             0.0033
1-6 Total Production cost
                                       SERI / DOE [3]                       EC [1,2]                      DEA [3]


                                      400 – 500 US$/m2 =              400 – 600 US$/m2 =             5680 DKK/KWe =
     Total investment cost           1000 – 1200 US$/KWe             900 – 1100 US$/KWe                770 US$/KWe


   Average of wind velocity           6.6 m/s in 25 m height                    -                   6.5 m/s in 30 m height


 Total gained energy per year         800 – 1070 KWe / m2                       -                      1000 KWe / m2

        Capacity factor                         -                            % 28.5                        % 22.3

          Availability                        % 95                            %95                             -

       Total energy loss                      % 23                              -                             -

                                                                                                     1 - 2 years : % 1.4
            O&M                           1 cent / KWh           % 2 of total investment per year     3 – 5 years : % 2
                                                                                                     6 – 20 years : % 2.5

 Substitution cost of turbines            27000 – 40000 $
                                                                                -                             -
    (after 8th & 20th yrs)         ( for 200 KWe wind turbine)

           Lifetime                          30 yrs                          20 yrs                        20 yrs

         Interest rate                        0.061                             -                             -

        Fixed cost rate                       0.102                             -                             -

Investment (real) rate of return                -                         % 5 per year                  % 7 per year

          Total Cost                    6.8 US cent/KWh               3.5 – 7 US cent/KWh             4.5 US cent/KWh
1-6 Total Production cost ( Cont’d)
• EC capacity factor almost considered high and in US long lifetime
• Generally Danish study seems more realistic.
• As a result, we can conclude total production cost is about 5 – 10 US cent / KWh.
• In general, the initial investment for a 1MW wind turbine project is about 1.1 million
EUR (S.E.I., 2004, p.4).
• As shown in the below table, the most expensive part of the investment is the costs of
turbines, accounting for 80 % of the total installation cost.
         Average cost of a typical 600 kW turbine project (Danish Energy Agency, 1999)

                        Component                    Average DKK (600kW)
                      Turbine ex-works5                     3 146 000
                         Foundation                          149 000
                       Grid connection                       288 000
                    Electrical Installation                  20 000
                     Tele communication                      14 000
                            Land                             103 000
                            Roads                            39 000
                         Consulting                          36 000
                          Finance                            20 000

                          Insurance                          94 000
                            Total                           3 909 000
    1-7 Cost Comparison with Other Energy Sources
                                                                             (A.W.E.A., 2002, p.1)

    Data from 1996 comparing the Levelized                Plant Fuel Type          USD cents/kWh
    (Include all capital, fuel, and operating                   Coal                     4,8 - 5,5
    and maintenance costs associated with
    the plant over its lifetime and divides that                 Gas                     3,9 - 4,4
    total cost by the estimated output in kWh                  Hydro                    5,1 - 11,3
    over the lifetime of the plant)
                                                               Biomass                  5,8 - 11,6
                                                               Nuclear                  11,1 - 14,5
                                                                Wind                     4,0 - 6,0




                                                               Production cost     External cost        Total cost
                                               Fuels
Production, external and total costs                           ( EUR cents/kWh)   ( EUR cents/kWh)    ( EUR cents/kWh)

of different energy fuels (Belgian           Nuclear                 3.1                0.1                 3.2
Ministry of Energy and Sustainable          Gas (CHP)                3.2                1.0                 4.2
Development: Pauwel and Streydio,
                                               Coal                  3.4                2.4                 5.8
2000, p.18).
                                       Wind onshore/inland           7.8                0.3                 8.1

                                       Wind onshore/on coast         4.5                0.1                 4.6

                                          Wind offshore              5.8                0.1                 5.9
Conclusion

It appears that Wind Energy cannot compete in the
 market with traditional energy sources without the
              help of financial support.
But if we consider climate change, global warming
 and GHG emissions, wind energy will be financially
                       feasible.




                       Thank You
2- Project Development

2-1 Initial site selection
2-2 project feasibility assessment
2-3 the Measure-Correlate-Predict technique
2-4 site investigation
2-5 Public investigation
2-6 Preparation and submission of planning
  application
    2-1 Initial site selection
•   The mean power production for a wind turbine is given by:


     –    P (U): power curve of wind turbine is available from turbine suppliers
     –   f (U): probability density function of the wind speed may be obtained from wind atlas (European wind
         atlas, 1989)
     –   T: time period

•   Energy yield of a wind turbine can be estimated as shown in below by combining the wind speed
    distribution with the power curve:

     –   H (ui): number of hours in wind speed
     –   P (ui): power output at the wind speed

•   Road access for transporting the turbines and other related equipment such as main
    transformer
•   A review of the main environmental considerations, the important constraints includes special
    consideration of areas
     –   Ensuring that no turbine is located so close to domestic dwellings
     –   Avoiding area of particular ecological value as well as any locations of particular archaeological or
         historical interest
     –   Noise
     –   Visual domination
     –   Light shadow flicker
•   In parallel with the technical and environmental assessments it is normal to open discussion
    with local civic or planning authorities to identify and agree the major potential issues.
2-2 project feasibility assessment

• Once a potential site has been identified then more
  detailed, and expensive, investigations are required in
  order to confirm the feasibility of project
• The wind farm energy output, and the financial
  viability of the scheme, will be very sensitive to the
  wind speed over the life of the project
• To establish a prediction of the long term wind
  resource, it is recommended to use the measure-
  correlate-predict (MCP) technique. (Derrick, 1993,
  Mortimer, 1994)
    2-3 the measure-correlate-predict technique
•   MCP approach: linear regression is used to establish a relationship between the
    measured site wind speed and long term meteorological wind speed data of the form:

                                    Usite = a + b Ulong-term
•   Coefficients are calculated for some directional sectors and the correction for the site
    applied to the long term data record of meteorological station

•   Thus, MCP requires the installation of cup anemometers and wind vane at the wind
    farm site and one anemometer at the hub height of wind turbine

•   Measurements are made over at least 6 month period and correlated with
    measurements made concurrently at the meteorological station

•   Estimate what the wind speed at the wind farm site would have been over the last 20
    years (as a prediction of the wind speed during the life of the project )

•   Difficulties:
     1. with modern wind turbines, high site meteorological masts are necessary also with planning
        permission
     2. availability of suitable meteorological station within 50-100 km
     3. the gaps and quality of meteorological station
2-4 site investigation

• A careful assessment of existing land use
• How best the wind farm may be integrated with e.g.
  agricultural operations
• The ground conditions for ensuring turbine
  foundations, access roads and construction areas
• Local ground conditions for position of turbines
• Hydrological study for determining whether spring
  water supplies of wind farm
• More detailed investigation like bend radii, width,
  gradient and any weigh restrictions on approach
  roads
• Discussion with local electricity utility concerning the
  connection to distribution network
2-5 Public investigation

• Prior the erection of the site anemometer the
  wind farm developer may initiate some form of
  informal public consultation like local
  community organizations, environmental
  societies and wildlife trusts.
2-6 Preparation and submission of planning application

 •   The purpose of wind farm environmental statement
     (that is an expensive and time consuming and
     requires the assistance of various specialists) may be
     summarized:
     1. physical characteristics of wind turbines and their land
        use requirement
     2. environmental character of proposed site and
        surrounding area
     3. environmental impacts of the wind farm
     4. measures which mitigate any adverse impact
     5. need for the wind farm and allowance for planning
        authority and general public decision on the application
2-6 Preparation and submission of planning application

 • Topics covered in environmental statement will typically include the
   following (BWEA, 1994)
     –   policy framework
     –   site selection
     –   designated areas
     –   visual and landscape assessment
     –   noise assessment
     –   ecological assessment
     –   archaeological and historical assessment
     –   hydrological assessment
     –   interference with telecommunication systems
     –   aircraft safety
     –   safety
     –   traffic management and construction
     –   electrical connection
     –   economic effects on the local economy
     –   decommissioning
     –   mitigating measures
     –   non-technical summary
Extras: Appendixes

• Sample Wind Farm Costs
• 9 Wind Energy Project Analyses
References
1.    J.M. Cohen , Methodology for computing wind turbine cost, American
      energy association , 1989
2.    H.N. Nacfaire, Demonstration program for wind energy, United
      Kingdom, EWEC, 1999
3.    Danish energy agency: wind energy in Denmark, 1999
4.    N.C. van de Borg, The energy production of wind turbines, The
      Netherland, 1999
5.    H.J.M Beurskens and E.H.L. Lysen, Perspective of wind energy,
      European wind energy association, 2001, www.ewea.org
6.    British wind energy association, best practice guidelines for wind
      energy development, 2001, www.bwea.com
7.    European wind atlas, Risø national lab, 1999, www.wind-power.dk
8.    International energy agency, wind turbine, 2000, www.iea.org
9.    The wind atlas analysis and application program, www.wasp.dk
10.   D. Taylor, wind energy and the environment, IEEE energy,
      www.ieee.com
11.   Renewable Energy Technologies Screen International Clean Energy
      Decision Support Centre, www.RETScreen.net
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

								
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