RadComms 2008
Meeting Future Spectrum Needs
Emerging Business Trends in
the Mobile Sector
Chris Althaus CEO
Australian Mobile Telecommunications Association
Mobile History
First fully automatic
mobile system
AMPS
GSM
CDMA
'3G
1981 1987 1993 1999 2000 2003 2004
The Number of Fixed and Mobile
Services In Operation (SIO)
Mobile SIOs Fixed SIOs
19.76
20
18.42
18
16.48
16
14.33
14
12.66
11.40 11.58 11.66 11.46
12 11.10 10.80 11.26
Millions
10.60
10
8.01
8
6
4
2
0
1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06
Year
Direct and Spillover Effects of Mobiles
14
$12.2 b
12
10
8
$ billion
$5.8 b
6
$6.4 b
4
2
0
Direct contribution Indirect contribution Total contribution
Source: Access Economics
Spillover Effects - Mobile Data – a key
productivity enabling technology
• Forward estimate of economy-wide benefits
from increased mobile data used by skilled
workers.
• Assumed 3G developments increase skilled
labour productivity by another 20 mins/week.
• Estimated additional $1 billion to GDP in 2010
due to mobile data uptake.
Source: Access Economics
The traditional telecommunications
Industry is expanding with the introduction of new
entrants and across national boundaries.
Traditional
Carriers
IP Service Converged Global
Providers Industry Players
New
Telco
Entrants
International Mobile
Telecommunications
– the GSM and 3G evolution
3G LTE
• history
20 MHz
20 MHz
• now HSPA Evolved
Channels
Channels
• near future The band
The band
Next
Next
2500-2690
2500-2690 regulatory
regulatory
HSPA (Turbo 3G)
MHz in use
MHz in use challenge
challenge
3G
GPRS
Peak rate 40 kbps 384 kbps 3.6 Mbps 7.2 /14.4 Mbps 28 /42 Mbps ~200 Mbps
Ericsson 1998 2002 2005 2007 2008 2009
Mobile Broadband
x 1000
1000 x higher peak rate in 10 years
ACMA – Draft Five Year Spectrum
Outlook 2009–2014
“The management of the radiofrequency
spectrum is undergoing major changes with
the increasing sophistication and
proliferation of radio technologies
simultaneously:
• increasing the demand for spectrum;
• increasing the opportunity for more
productive use of the spectrum.”
Ubiquitous adequate bandwidth will significantly
underpin our future
E-Health
Tele-diagnosis
Monitoring of health
indicators E-Business
Secure health records
E-Education Training of health E-commerce for
professionals extended network
Wider and better of customers and
access to knowledge suppliers
ICT literacy E-transactions
development (efficiency) for
Distance E-learning supply chain and
payment
E-Government
Enhanced public
E-Environment
services delivery Public alert system
Public administration Climate monitoring
efficiency Flood management
Transparency
E-Employment
Development of
ICT work force
Tele-working to
connect remote
areas to main
office and reduce
traffic congestion
Source: Alcatel-Lucent 2008
Impressive broadband growth
Broadband subscription forecast
2100 Fixed
Mobile
1800
Subscriptions (Millions)
1500
1200
900
600
300
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mobile Broadband includes: CDMA2000 EV-DO, HSPA, LTE, Mobile WiMAX, Other
Fixed broadband includes: DSL, FTTx, Cable modem subs and other
Mobile Broadband 2/3 of all subscriptions by 2012
Source: Ovum RHK & Internal Ericsson
Strong growth in data traffic
WCDMA & HSPA world average
Relative
Network
Load
44,375
Data
Relative RNC Traffic
35,5
26,625
Voice
17,75
8,875
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Au Sep Oct Nov Dec
07 07 07 07 07 07 07 g07 07 07 07 07
Data traffic passed voice traffic May 2007
Source: Ericsson
Mobile Broadband take up & forecast
Berg Insight AB July 2007 Juniper Research 2007
At the end of 2006 there were 3.3 million Mobile entertainment global industry
HSDPA connections in the EU revenues to increase 35% year on year
from US$17.3 billion in 2006 to US$76.9
billion in 2011
H S P A D o w n lin k S p e e d s F o re c a st
Mbps
Mb p s
HSPA Downlink Speeds Forecast US$Bil.
Mobile Entertainment Revenue Forecast
35 90
80
30 8
2 8.
70
25
60
20 50
15 1 4.
4
40
30
10
7.
2
20
5
10
8
1.
0 0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Bandwidth Drivers
“A one hour video
download consumes as •3D Web
much bandwidth as a •3D TV/Screens
year’s worth of email“
Reuters, Feb 7, 2007 •YouTube
Predictions on bandwidth consumption •Digital cameras
Services Downstream Upstream
World Wide Web/E-mail 0.2-5 Mbit/s 2 Mbit/s
HDTV (per channel/device) 8-10 Mbit/s 0.5 Mbit/s
Peer to Peer 0.2-5 Mbit/s 2 Mbit/s
VoIP <1 Mbit/s <1 Mbit/s
Interactive gaming 2 Mbit/s 3 Mbit/s
Instant Messaging <1 Mbit/s <1 Mbit/s
Audio, web radio, podcasts <0.5 Mbit/s <0.5 Mbit/s
Video conferences 2 Mbit/s 3 Mbit/s
Home security 2 Mbit/s 0.5 Mbit/s
e-government <5 Mbit/s <0.5 Mbit/s
Average demand per household <50 Mbit/s <8 Mbit/s
Source: Arthur D. Little
Source 2008
Social Networking
The Next Revolution has arrived –
Web & Mobile 2.0
• Space to communicate, share,
publish, collaborate and build virtual
communities
• More freedom, choice and power
• Information and communication no
longer controlled by the few,
• Individual has more access to
information than government did a
generation ago
• By 2017 access knowledge of
humankind - wherever, whenever.
AND NOW IT’S IN YOUR POCKET – ANY TIME, ANY WHERE
• latest generation devices …. a watershed in convergence
• Screen size & speed
• Soft ware integration
CURRENT AND FUTURE TRENDS
• Eg….
• M-COMMERCE
• SOCIAL NETWORKING
• USER GENERATED CONTENT
• LOCATION BASED SERVICES
• MEDIA / ENTERTAINMENT SERVICES
• HEALTH SERVICES
• EDUCATION SERVICES
Ubiquitous adequate bandwidth will significantly
underpin our future
E-Health
Tele-diagnosis
Monitoring of health
indicators E-Business
Secure health records
E-Education Training of health E-commerce for
professionals extended network
Wider and better of customers and
access to knowledge suppliers
ICT literacy E-transactions
development (efficiency) for
Distance E-learning supply chain and
payment
E-Government
Enhanced public
E-Environment
services delivery Public alert system
Public administration Climate monitoring
efficiency Flood management
Transparency
E-Employment
Development of
ICT work force
Tele-working to
connect remote
areas to main
office and reduce
traffic congestion
Source: Alcatel-Lucent 2008
Thank You