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Input for Geological Risk Assessment

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					                  Input for Geological Risk Assessment
                              Johannes Klein & Jaana Jarva
                                April 2008, St. Petersburg


                                                                LIFE – Third Countries
                                                                           GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                                  LIFE06 TCY/ROS/0002671
     Risk (technical approach)

                              The probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses
                                Risk = Hazard x Consequence
                              (deaths, injuries, property, livelihoods, economic activity
                              disrupted or environment damaged) resulting from
                              interactions between natural or human-induced hazards and
                              vulnerable conditions.

                                                Exposure & Vulnerability
                              Conventionally risk is expressed by the notation

                              Risk = Hazards x Vulnerability.

                              Some disciplines also include the concept of exposure to
                              refer particularly to the physical aspects of vulnerability.
                              (UNISDR 2004)




                                                                                                 LIFE-Third Countries
                                                                                                          GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                                                                                      2
                                                                                             LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
     Input for the Risk Components
     •   Hazard:
             – Type of hazard (geological instability, erosion, radon, flood….)
             – Probability of occurrence
             – Extent and magnitude
     •   Exposure:
             – No. of people affected
             – No. of buildings affected
             – Length of affected network infrastructure (roads, pipelines, water
               supply…)
     •   Vulnerability:
             – Sensitivity
             – Value

                                                                                 LIFE-Third Countries
                                                                                          GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                                                                      3
                                                                             LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
     Examples for Vulnerability
     •   Buildings’ vulnerability (sensitivity) to geological instabilities:
                   Vulnerability = construction type + age of building + height of
                   building + maintenance + single house or row of houses


     •   Road network’s vulnerability to geological instabilities:
             Vulnerability = length + importance (+condition)


     •   People’s vulnerability to Radon:
                       Vulnerability = construction type of building + drinking water
                        source & consumption or radon in air


                                                                                      LIFE-Third Countries
                                                                                               GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                                                                           4
                                                                                  LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
  Input data
                                                            SC Mineral?
     •   Geological Hazards:
             – Probability, Extent, Magnitude


     •   Exposure and Vulnerability
             – Cadastral data (no. & type of houses, infrastructure)
             – Population density
             – Other: condition of infrastructure & houses, distribution of
               population at day/night



                                                                      CEP?

                                                                                  LIFE-Third Countries
                                                                                           GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                                                                       5
                                                                              LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
     Table of Geological Risks and Vulnerability
     Geological               Hazard             Exposed      Exposure        Vulnerability       Parameters        Explanatio   Sources
     Hazard                   Parameter          Element                                          and Indexes       n
     Radon                    Radon              Population   Population in   No. of people in    Foundation                     Vuotilainen, A.
                                                                                                  types:                         and I.
                              concentration in                radon prone     “unprotected”
                                                                                                  Slab-on-grade,                 Mäkeläinen,
                              air over                        area            houses              house with                     1993: Radon Risk
                              threshold                                                           basement, crawl                Mapping using
                                                                                                  space                          Indoor Monitoring
                                                                                                                                 Data, Indoor Air
                                                                                                                                 19943, 3, 369-375

                              Radon              Population   People using    Amount of           Daily drinking                 UNSCEAR 1993:
                                                                                                  w ater                         Soruces and
                              concentration in                drinking        consumed radon
                                                                                                  consumption:                   Effects of Ionizing
                              drinking water                  water with      affected drinking   Adults: 140                    Radiation –
                              over threshold                  radon           water               ml/day                         UNSCEAR 1993
                                                              concentratio                        Children: 200                  Report to the
                                                                                                  ml/day                         General Assembly
                                                              n over
                                                                                                  Ingestion-dose-
                                                              threshold                           factor:
                                                                                                  Adults: 1x10-
                                                                                                  8Sv/Bq

                                                                                                  Children: 2x10-
                                                                                                  8Sv/Bq


     Geological
     Instability
                              Mapping of
                              ground stability
                                                 Buildings    No. of
                                                              Buildings
                                                                              Height of
                                                                              buildings, age,     …                 …            …
                                                                              construction
                                                                              type,
                                                                              maintenance,
                                                                              aggregation of
                                                                              buildings




     See handed out table for more details                                                                                                  LIFE-Third Countries
                                                                                                                                                     GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                                                                                                                                 6
                                                                                                                                        LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
     Radon Risk Map
    Radon hazard forecast             Buildings’ vulnerability
    (taken from the                   (building’s function & no.
    radon-hazard map)                 of floors)


     -                        1       Very low        1
     Very low                 2       Low             2
     Low                      3   X   Medium          3        = Radon Risk

     Medium                   4       High            4
     High                     5       Very high       5




                                                                                  LIFE-Third Countries
                                                                                           GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                                                                       7
                                                                              LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
     Buildings’ Vulnerability (first estimates)




                                                      LIFE-Third Countries
                                                               GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                                           8
                                                  LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
     Radon Risk Map




                                  LIFE-Third Countries
                                           GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                       9
                              LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
     Weighting of hazards – the Delphi method


                              •   Investigations of opinions and
                                  ratings from hazard and spatial
                                  planning experts on importance
                                  of certain hazard on European
                                  scale
                              •   Three round => average
                                  estimation

                              •   Another application on regional
                                  scale



                                                               LIFE-Third Countries
                                                                        GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                                                  10
                                                           LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
     Multi-hazard (multi-risk) mapping
     • Summing up of single hazard grid layers => classification of
       multi-hazards into five classes (very high, high, medium, low,
       very low)
     • Using the method of summing up the grids makes it possible to
       look backwards what is the data behind the qualitative risk
       assessment
     • See simplified example from Finland used to classify construction
       suitability on the regional scale




                                                                      LIFE-Third Countries
                                                                               GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                                                         11
                                                                  LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
    Construction suitability data (simplified
    example from Finland)

     •   All data is converted to 25x25 metre grid

     •   Soil types have classes 1-20, and other mapping elements have
         classes 30-60
             – 6 = clay, 60 = water

     •   Slope steepness have classes 100-400
             – < 5 % = 100, > 30 % = 400

     •   Thickness of fine-grained sediments have classes 1000-5000
             – < 2,5 m = 1000, > 25 m = 5000
                                                                       LIFE-Third Countries
                                                                                GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                                                          12
                                                                   LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
    Construction suitability data (2)

     •   End result: Raster map where Quaternary geological mapping
         data + slope steepness + thickness of fine-grained sediments
         are summed up

     • Coding of grids:
        – 1000 - 5000 thickness
        – 100 - 400 slope steepness
        – 1 - 16 soil type
     • Example: Grid-code = 3106
             – thickness of fine-grained sediments 3000 (= 4,5-13 m)
             – slope steepness 100 (= <5%)
             – soil type 6 (= clay)                                        LIFE-Third Countries
                                                                                    GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                                                              13
                                                                       LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
                                  LIFE-Third Countries
                                           GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                     14
                              LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
     MURLUMSS
     •   Multi-Risk Land Use Management Support System

     •   Map and scenario selection
     •   Hazard analysis
     •   Exposed elements analysis
     •   Vulnerability analysis
     •   Multiple criteria risk evaluation
     •   Coping capacity analysis
     •   Outputs
     •   Output comparisons between scenarios

     •   To be partly tested in GeoInforM –project?          LIFE-Third Countries
                                                                      GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                                                15
                                                         LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
     Risk factors, hazards (1)
     •   Geological instability
             – Quaternary deposits
             – Engineering geology
                       •      Surface, 10 meters level, 20 meters level
                       •      Lithological groups (sand, gravel, peat etc.) => properties + thickness
                       •      Sub-groups of rocks
             – Hydrogeological properties
                       •      Groundwater level in different aquifers (changes)
                       •      Location of main aquifers
                       •      Piezometric heights
             – Neotectonics
                       •      Zones (calculated according to observed events)
             – Paleovalleys
                       •      Pre-quaternary reliefs

                                                                                                            LIFE-Third Countries
                                                                                                                     GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                                                                                               16
                                                                                                        LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
     Risk factors, hazards (2)
     •   Radon hazard
             – 4 classes (very low, low, medium, high)
     •   Nature gas generation
             – Areas with known natural gas generation
             – Areas recommended to be studied further
             – Areas with buried hydrological systems (lakes, river channels, also
               artificial formed areas)
             – Gas collector wells (risk management) (point data)
             – Gas generation events (known risk) (point data)




                                                                                LIFE-Third Countries
                                                                                         GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                                                                   17
                                                                            LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
     Risk factors, hazards (3)
     •   Nature gas generation (4 classes?)
             –     Areas with known risk
             –     Areas where further studies are needed
             –     Areas with buried hydrological systems (natural and artificial)
             –     Areas with managed risk

     •   Karst formations
             – Location

     •   Surface erosion
             – Relevant documents, datasets will be provided by SC Mineral

                                                                                     LIFE-Third Countries
                                                                                              GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                                                                        18
                                                                                 LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
     Risk factors, vulnerability (4)
     •   Master plan
          – Current situation of land use
          – Land use in 2015
          – Land use in 2025

     •   Buildings
          – Use of building
          – Number of floors
          – Type of building

     •   Population density (three options)
          – Number of registered residents in buildings
          – Estimations based on type of building
          – Distribution of population density in the city
                                                                 LIFE-Third Countries
                                                                          GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                                                    19
                                                             LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
     Further work
     •   The attribute information of selected .shp-files will be translated
         to English

     •   English translations will be delivered by SC Mineral to GTK
         either as separate tables or as .shp-files without any Cyrillic
         writing by the end of May

     •   GTK will first make proposal for classification of geologic
         instability

     •   Multi-hazard maps? Weighting of hazards; Delphi-method?
                                                                           LIFE-Third Countries
                                                                                    GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                                                              20
                                                                       LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
     Relevance of geological risks
     • Results from questionnaire developed in Task 2
     • The most important risk according to four interviewed groups:
       flooding caused by groundwater
     • Other relevant risks: karst formations and radon hazard


     •   Geological instability?




                                                                     LIFE-Third Countries
                                                                              GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                                                        21
                                                                 LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
     Discussion
     • Difference between options of experts and people
     • Promotion needed




                                                              LIFE-Third Countries
                                                                       GeoInforM
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva                                                 22
                                                          LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

				
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