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Earthquake Potential in Western Anatolia
and the Associated Risk Assessment
and Mitigation in Izmir and
its Surroundings (ARAMIS)
K. Atakan
Department of Earth Science
University of Bergen
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Background and our motivations
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A long-term
interest and a
wake-up call
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Izmir metropolitan area
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Background and Motivations:
• The earthquake potential of the active faults in Izmir and its surroundings
• Historical destructive earthquakes along these faults
• Present day high seismicity in the area
• Susceptibility to local site effects
• Densely populated metropolitan area with high vulnerability
• High earthquake risk
• Need for mitigation strategies
• Implementation of risk reduction measures
Opportunities:
• New EU Program - FP7
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The North Anatolian Fault (NAF)
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Present-day plate motions in Turkey based on GPS
Sengör et al., 2004
Present-day motions in Izmir and its surroundings
based on recent GPS data
Aktug and Kilicoglu, 2006
Instrumental
seismicity in
Western
Anatolia (data
from KOERI)
Earthquake
focal
mechanisms in
Western
Anatolia (data
from Harvard
University)
Instrumental seismicity
in Izmir and its
surroundings show
clearly which faults are
being reactivated.
The historical events
in 1688, 1735 and
1788 which destroyed
the city three times,
are, on the other hand,
more difficult to
associate with faults.
Erdik et al., 1997
The earthquake
swarm in 2005
was a wake-up call
The earthquake
swarm in 2005 (data
from KOERI)
The active
faults in the
region as
mapped by
MTA
The offshore faults in the south show strike-slip motion
Altinok et al., 2005
Ocakoglu et al., 2004
Bozkurt and Sözbilir, 2006
Spectacular outcrops along the Manisa Fault are exceptional.
Usually the fault surfaces are not visible.
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How do we address these problems?
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Continuous circle of efforts
Before the earthquake (preparedness/mitigation)
During the earthquake (rapid response)
After the earthquake (restructuring)
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Seismic risk = hazard * vulnerability
Social vulnerability vs vulnerability of the built environment
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Potential earthquake sources
Seismic hazard assessment
Major tasks in Local site effects
assessing the seismic
risk and its
implementation in Vulnerability
disaster management
Seismic risk assessment
Mitigation strategies
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Earthquake rupture and the resulting
damage is a complex function of
various parameters
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Appropriate Seismic Hazard Assessment
methodologies are needed
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Seismic hazard assessment
Probabilistic methods Deterministic methods
Poissonian Time-dependent Scenario based GM-modeling
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KOERI, Izmir Earthquake Master Plan
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Hybrid (broad-band) Ground Motion Simulations
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Computed ground motions for a scenario earthquake
along the Izmir Fault, Western Segment
Computed ground motions for a scenario earthquake
along the Izmir Fault, Eastern Segment
Local Site Effects is a major problem
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KOERI, Izmir Earthquake Master Plan
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KOERI, Izmir Earthquake Master Plan
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Predominant
frequencies around
Kordon, Izmir based
on H/V spectral ratios
of the microtremors
Mikrotremor verilerine
dayali Izmir, Kordon
civarindaki
anasalinim frekanslari
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The complex built environment in Izmir poses
challenges in defining the vulnerability with
respect to earthquake loads. Innovative
approaches are needed.
Building types and
standards vary significantly
throughout the Izmir area.
Göksu, 2006
We need new technologies and
innovative approaches
Düzgün et al., 2005
Düzgün et al., 2005
Critical issues to be discussed:
• Project scope
• Project size (optimum size)
• Project focus (single location vs several locations)
• Scientific challenges (basic science vs applied)
• Innovations and new technologies
• Participating Institutions and their experience and expertise
• European dimension (generic aspects)
• European policies and priorities in FP7 (relevance)
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Thank you for your attention!
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